| 14-07-2026 08:15 |
Newcastle Olympic FC Reserves |
- |
Charlestown Azzurri Reserves |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals (3.55) exceeds the line of 3.0 by 0.55, calculated from home scoring 2.10 at home and away conceding 1.80 away. Both teams show accelerating bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5=2.25, away GL_5=1.70), strongly supporting the Over. Structurally, Charlestown have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches, and the quality gap (Newcastle 3rd vs Charlestown 9th) further reinforces the Over bet. |
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| 14-07-2026 09:30 |
Capalaba Women |
- |
Sunshine Coast Wanderers Women |
Over 3.0 Goals |
71% |
Expected FT total 3.4 (home avg 1.30 + away conceded 1.50 averaged with away avg 1.60 + home conceded 2.40) exceeds line 3.0 by 0.4 goals. Capalaba Women's last 5 home matches saw 60% Over (3/5). Sunshine Coast Wanderers' away GL_5 of 1.55 (moderate mispricing, accelerating) adds edge to Over. Likelihood 2.5+ goals at 70% also supports. |
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| 14-07-2026 14:00 |
Dukla Banska Bystrica |
- |
Hapoel Tel Aviv |
Under 1.25 1st Half Goals |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.775 (home avg 0.30 scored & 0.50 conceded, away 0.25 scored & 0.50 conceded) vs line 1.25. Dukla's last 5 1st halves had under 1.25 in 4/5 (80%), Hapoel's last 8 away 1st halves had under 1.25 in 6/8 (75%). Both teams average under 0.5 1st half goals, supporting a low-scoring first half. |
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| 14-07-2026 14:00 |
Defensores de Cambaceres Reserves |
- |
Yupanqui Reserves |
Over 2.25 Goals |
66% |
Expected total 2.80 (home 1.50 at home, conceded 1.80; away 1.20 away, conceded 1.10) exceeds the 2.25 line by 0.55. H2H both matches ended Over with 7 total goals. Home team's GL_5 of 1.95 indicates bookmaker mispricing, while structural form shows 9/10 home matches went Over 2.5. Likelihood for Over 2.5 is 45% but strong expected totals and shot-based potential (5.15) override this. |
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| 14-07-2026 16:00 |
Rapid Vienna II |
- |
SR Fach-Donaufeld |
Under 4.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total based on averages is 3.15 (home scored 1.40 at home, away conceded 1.50 away, away scored 2.00 away, home conceded 1.40 at home), well below the 4.25 line. Home team's last 10 matches produced under 4.5 in 8 (80%), away team's last 10 produced under in 7 (70%), both exceeding the 70% threshold for Under. H2H is limited to one high-scoring match (6-4) but small sample reduces weight. Away defensive fragility (3 of last 5 away conceded 2+) is a counter-signal, but strong historical underperformance and expected totals make Under the clear value. Away team's GL_5 of 1.50 indicates moderate mispricing accelerating relative to GL_10 (1.28), adding slight edge to the Under direction. |
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| 14-07-2026 16:00 |
Atletico Tucuman Reserves |
- |
CA Aldosivi Reserves |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 2.90 (home 1.50 scored, 1.90 conceded; away 0.70 scored, 1.70 conceded) exceeds line 2.5. Home team 80% of home matches over 2.5 (4/5), away 50% away matches over (3/6) not contradicting. Structural Over signals: quality gap (4th vs 14th in group) and away conceded 2+ in 3/5 recent away matches. Market mispricing mild (GL_5 home 1.10, away 1.30). H2H (only one) 3 goals. Confidence 78% based on gap home history and structural context. |
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| 14-07-2026 16:00 |
Rosario Central Reserves |
- |
San Lorenzo Reserves |
Over 2.25 Goals |
73% |
Expected full-time goals calculated at 2.75 (home avg 1.30 scored + away avg 1.50 conceded away, away avg 1.30 scored + home avg 1.40 conceded at home) exceed the 2.25 line by 0.5 goals. Both Rosario Central (60%) and San Lorenzo (60%) have Over in 6 of their last 10 matches, and both H2H meetings produced 3 goals, supporting an Over outcome. Market mispricing is marginal (home GL_5 0.80, away 1.05), so the edge comes from the consistent goal-scoring pattern and the over-friendly philosophy applied to this match. |
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| 14-07-2026 16:30 |
Arminia Bielefeld |
- |
SC Imst |
Under 4.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.75 (Arminia Bielefeld home avg 2.20 + SC Imst away conceded avg 1.40 /2 + SC Imst away scored avg 2.30 + Arminia home conceded avg 1.60 /2) is below the 4.5 line. Home history shows 60% of last 10 matches under 4.5, away 75% under. Despite a quality gap and home scoring form (3 consecutive home matches with 2+ goals), the high line and home GL_5 of 1.65 indicate bookmaker mispricing toward under. The 1st half expected total (1.70) also supports under, with both teams' 1st half records showing 80%+ under 2.0. |
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| 14-07-2026 17:00 |
SC Weiz |
- |
Ilzer SV |
Over 3.5,4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.40 (home 1.80 scored + 2.60 conceded, away 2.50 scored + 1.90 conceded) vs line 3.75; 70% of SC Weiz's last 10 matches and 60% of Ilzer SV's last 10 went Over; structural: Ilzer SV conceded 2+ in 4 of 5 away matches; away GL_5 mispricing 2.45 (accelerating) adds edge; H2H only 2 matches (both Under) neutral. Raw confidence capped at 82% per standard ceiling. |
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| 14-07-2026 17:30 |
LASK Linz |
- |
Fenerbahce |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total (3.80) exceeds line (3.0) by 0.80 goals, calculated from LASK home avg 3.10 and Fener away avg 2.50 scored, with both teams conceding 1.00 on average. Home history shows 4/5 (80%) Over, away history also 4/5 (80%) Over. No H2H data. Market pricing error is mild (GL_5 1.35 home, 1.20 away), confirming moderate bookmaker mispricing. Confidence capped at 82% due to standard ceiling. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:00 |
Argentino Quilmes |
- |
Arsenal de Sarandi |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
68% |
Expected 1st half total of 1.15 goals (home avg 0.50 scored + 0.30 conceded vs away avg 0.80 scored + 0.70 conceded) exceeds the line of 0.75. Arsenal de Sarandi's 1st half record shows 7 of last 10 matches over 0.75 (70%), while the quality gap (1st vs 15th in standings) supports early attacking pressure. The away team averages 0.80 goals in the 1st half away, and the home team concedes 0.30 at home, reinforcing the Over. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:00 |
Hyde Utd |
- |
AFC Fylde |
Over 1.5 First Half Goals |
68% |
Expected first half goals (1.55) exceed the line (1.25). Hyde Utd scores in the first half in 80% of home matches, and AFC Fylde averages 1.3 goals away in the first half. The likelihood of Over 1.5 HT is 60% for Hyde and 55% overall, supporting an open first half. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:00 |
Alfreton Town |
- |
Boston Utd |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
81% |
Expected 1st half total is only 1.05 (home 0.5, away 0.5 avg) vs line 1.25. Home 1st half Under record: 7/10 (70%), away: 8/10 (80%). Both teams average 0.5 1st half goals, and away team failed to score in the 1st half in 3 of their last 4 away matches. Likelihood supports Under 1.5 at 75%. This structural low-scoring pattern justifies an Under pick despite the Over-first bias. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:00 |
Grotta Seltjarnarnes |
- |
Grindavik |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total of 3.80 (home avg 2.10 + away conceded 1.80, away avg 1.40 + home conceded 2.30) exceeds the Asian goal line of 3.0/3.5. Grotta home matches went Over in 3/4 (75%), while Grindavik away matches went Over in 4/5 (80%). Grindavik conceded 2+ goals in all 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. Market mispricing is severe for Grindavik (GL_5 3.10, accelerating) and moderate for Grotta (GL_5 1.50), both supporting Over. Shot-based expected goals of 6.54 further confirm the Over bias. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:30 |
Chippenham Town |
- |
Swindon |
Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.05 (Chippenham home HT avg 0.60 + Swindon away conceded HT avg 0.70 averaged, plus Swindon away HT scored 0.40 + Chippenham home conceded HT 0.40 averaged), well below the HT line of 1.5. Chippenham's last 4 home matches saw under 1.5 HT goals in 3 (75%), and Swindon's last 6 away matches saw under 1.5 HT in 5 (83%). Both teams score predominantly in the second half, supporting a low-scoring first half. The single H2H (1-5 FT) lacks HT detail, but the structural pattern and consistent history make this Under bet strong. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:30 |
Plymouth Parkway |
- |
Torquay |
Over 3.5 Goals |
74% |
Expected total 3.65 (home avg 1.20 at home + away avg conceded 1.30 = 1.25, plus away avg 2.50 away + home conceded 2.30 = 2.40, sum 3.65) is above the 3.5 line. Home team (Plymouth Parkway) has 3 of 4 home matches Over 3.5 (75%), while away team (Torquay) shows strong attacking form with 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 away matches despite 40% Over rate in that subset. Structural signals (quality gap from higher-league Torquay, home defensive fragility conceding 2.3 per game) support Over. Away team's GL_5 of 1.65 (moderate, accelerating) indicates bookmaker mispricing, adding confidence. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:30 |
Cristobal Colon JAS |
- |
3 de Noviembre |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected total equals 2.50 (home 1.20 avg at home, away 1.90 avg conceded away), exactly on the line. Strong structural Over signal: 3 de Noviembre conceded 2+ goals in all 4 away matches (defensive fragility). H2H supports Over (3-0). Home match history Over 2.5 at 40% and away at 50% are below thresholds, but with the Over-first bias and clear defensive vulnerability, Over 2.5 offers value at 1.80 odds. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:30 |
Sligo Rovers |
- |
Coleraine |
Over 3.0 Goals |
69% |
Expected total of 3.15 goals (home avg 1.00 conceded 2.20 + away avg 2.30 conceded 0.80) exceeds the 3.0 line. Away team Coleraine has strong attacking form (scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 away) and their GL_5 of 2.30 indicates accelerating bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction. Home team Sligo has 60% of home matches clearing 3.0 goals. Likelihood data supports Over at ~65%. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:45 |
Falkirk |
- |
Ayr |
Over 3.0 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 3.40 goals (Falkirk home avg 1.80, Ayr away conceded 1.50; Ayr away avg 1.20, Falkirk home conceded 2.30) exceeds the 3.0 line. Falkirk's home matches have 3/4 (75%) over 3.0. Ayr concede 2+ goals in all 4 away matches (defensive fragility). Quality gap between Premiership and Championship favors Over. Bookmaker mispricing for Falkirk (GL_5 1.50) adds moderate edge. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:45 |
Annan Athletic |
- |
Dundee |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected total (3.15) slightly below 3.25 line, but massive quality gap (Premiership Dundee vs League 2 Annan) creates structural Over pressure. Home team weak defence (conceded 1.6 avg) and market mispricing is high and accelerating (home GL_5 1.90, away GL_5 1.50), indicating bookmaker consistently underestimates goals. Combined with Over-first philosophy, edge favors Over despite modest historical over rates (Annan home 20%, Dundee away 40%). |
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| 14-07-2026 18:45 |
Kilmarnock |
- |
Raith |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT goals 3.40 based on (2.40+1.20)/2 + (2.20+1.00)/2 exceeds line 2.75. Kilmarnock home history: 8/10 (80%) over, Raith overall: 7/10 (70%) over. Raith's away defence conceded 2+ goals in 9 of last 10 away matches, and Kilmarnock are a Premiership side facing a Championship opponent. Home GL_5 1.50 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with over. Shot-based match potential also strongly supports over. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:45 |
Linlithgow Rose |
- |
St Johnstone |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st half goals 2.00 (home avg 1.30 + away conceded 0.30 vs away avg 1.40 + home conceded 1.00) vs line 1.5, a +0.5 gap. 3/5 Linlithgow home 1st half matches over 1.5, 3/6 St Johnstone away over. Quality gap (St Johnstone heavy favorite) and strong bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5=1.80) boost over case. Likelihood of scoring in first half is 90% home, 70% away. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:45 |
Brechin |
- |
Livingston |
Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.15 (Brechin home HT avg 0.40, Livingston away HT conceded avg 0.70 averaged with away scored 0.60 and home conceded 0.60), well below the 1.5 line. Both teams show 80% Under in 1st half (Brechin 4/5 home, Livingston 4/5 away). Livingston failed to score in 1st half in 4 of 5 away matches, and Brechin conceded only 1 HT goal in 5 home games, creating a strong structural case for low scoring. |
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| 14-07-2026 18:45 |
Cliftonville |
- |
Moyola Park |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
Expected 1st half total of 1.70 (Cliftonville home HT avg 0.7 + conceded 1.0, Moyola Park away HT avg 0.9 + conceded 0.8) exceeds the line of 1.5. Cliftonville have gone Over 1.5 in 3 of 5 home 1st halves (60%) and Moyola Park in 1 of 2 away 1st halves (50%), meeting the 50%+ threshold. The quality gap (Premier vs Championship) and moderate bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 1.5, accelerating) add further support for an Over. |
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| 14-07-2026 22:00 |
Club Comunicaciones |
- |
Villa Dalmine |
Over 1.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total of 2.25 goals (home 1.50 scored at home, away 0.80 conceded away; away 1.00 scored away, home 1.20 conceded at home) exceeds the 1.75 line. Both teams have 60% of last 10 matches over 1.75, and home team's goal line mispricing is high (GL_5 = 2.15), suggesting the market consistently underestimates goals. Recent form shows 5 of 10 home and 6 of 10 away matches with 2+ goals, reinforcing the over signal. |
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| 14-07-2026 22:00 |
Deportivo Merlo |
- |
Real Pilar |
Over 1.5, 2.0 Goals |
75% |
Expected total goals 2.35 from averages (home scored 0.9, away conceded 1.2; away scored 0.8, home conceded 1.8) well above the 1.75 line. Home team has 7/10 (70%) and away team 8/10 (80%) of recent matches going Over 1.75. H2H is neutral (1 over, 1 under in 2 meetings). Structural edge: Real Pilar conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. Moreover, Deportivo Merlo's goal line variance (GL_5=2.10) shows severe bookmaker mispricing that is accelerating, adding confidence to the Over. |
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