| 22-08-2026 12:30 |
Denmark Division 3 |
Holstebro |
- |
FC Helsingor |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 3.40 from Holstebro home 1.90 scored/1.30 conceded and FC Helsingor away 1.80 scored/1.80 conceded, 0.40 above the 3.0 line. Recent full-time totals: Holstebro 3 of last 5 over 3.0 (one push), FC Helsingor 4 of last 5 over 3.0; FC Helsingor have conceded 2+ in each of their last five away matches and their GL_5 is 1.65 (moderate bookmaker mispricing) aligned with Over. H2H is empty/neutral. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:00 |
Paraguay Division Intermedia |
Independiente FBC |
- |
General Caballero JLM |
Over 2.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected full-time total is 3.00 goals (home 1.50 scored/1.30 conceded at home; away 2.00 scored/1.20 conceded away), clearing the 2.5 line by 0.50. Independiente FBC are 5/10 (50%) over 2.5, while General Caballero JLM are 7/10 (70%) over 2.5; the one H2H was 4-2 over 2.5, but a 1-match sample is neutral. No strong bookmaker mispricing: home GL_5 0.80, away GL_5 1.15. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:00 |
Paraguay Division Intermedia |
Club Atlético Tembetary |
- |
Fernando de la Mora |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 3.30 (A=1.10, B=1.20, C=2.70, D=1.60; (1.10+1.20)/2+(2.70+1.60)/2) vs 2.5 line, match-potential 6.53 supports Over. Away are 7/10 over 2.5 (70%), home 5/10 (50%); H2H only 1-0 under (neutral). Structural: away conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (2-0 Carapegua, 2-3 Santani, 2-3 Gral Caballero) and mutual-opponent away c_avg_on_target 6.2. Scoring: base 50 + gap 15 + away history 8 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + structural fragility 5 = 86, capped 82% (GL_5 1.35 mild no boost). |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Germany DFB Pokal |
Erzgebirge Aue |
- |
TSG Hoffenheim |
Over 1.5 First Half Goals |
82% |
1st-half expected total is 2.25 ((0.70+1.40)/2 + (1.20+1.20)/2) against a 1.5 line (+0.75 gap). Both Erzgebirge Aue (7/10) and Hoffenheim (7/10) went Over 1.5 first-half goals in their last 10, with no H2H data to contradict. Confidence: Base 50% + gap 15% + home HT history 8% + away HT history 8% + structural quality gap 5% + home bookmaker mispricing 2.5% = 88.5%, capped at 82%; Hoffenheim's 68.8% first-half scoring share supports the over. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Germany DFB Pokal |
MSV Duisburg |
- |
Elversberg |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
HT expected total = (0.60+0.90)/2 + (1.40+0.80)/2 = 1.85 vs 1.25 line, gap +0.60. Elversberg away HT overs 7/10 (70%), and bookmaker mispricing is strong (home GL_5 2.30, away GL_5 1.60, both accelerating over). Breakdown: Base 50 + gap +10 + away HT history +8 + quality gap +5 + GL home +8 + GL away +5 = 86, capped at standard 82 (home HT history only 30%, so no elevated ceiling). |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Germany DFB Pokal |
Saarbrucken |
- |
Hertha Berlin |
Over 3.0 Goals |
65% |
Saarbrucken home avg 1.70 scored/1.40 conceded and Hertha away 2.40 scored/1.40 conceded give expected FT total (1.70+1.40)/2+(2.40+1.40)/2=3.45 against the 3.0 goal line. Saarbrucken's home GL_5 is 2.55 (severe bookmaker mispricing, accelerating) and Hertha away scores 2.40 on average, supporting Over; H2H and mutual opponents are unavailable. Confidence: 50 base +9 gap +0 home history +0 away history +0 H2H +0 common +0 likelihood +6 GL_5 home +0 structural =65%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Hungary NB I |
Vasas SC |
- |
Puskas Academy |
Puskas Academy +0.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Puskas are 1st overall (9 pts) and 1st in away standings (2W 0L, 5-2), while Vasas are 2nd (8 pts) with 1W 1D at home. Puskas have not lost in 7 of their last 8 matches (87.5% cover on +0.25), and the away +0.25 line creates value against a home side that won only 60% of recent matches outright. The main counter is mutual opponents favouring Vasas (3.33 for vs 1.00 against), but that sample is just 3 matches. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Austria 2. Liga |
Rapid Vienna II |
- |
Floridsdorfer AC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.70 vs line 2.75 (home scored 3.10/conceded 1.30 at home; away scored 2.00/conceded 1.00 away); Rapid home matches 9/10 over 2.75, Floridsdorfer away 6/10 over. Scoring: base 50 + gap 15 + home history 10 + away 5 + H2H 0 (0-2, 0-1) + mutual opponents -5 + likelihood 3 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 3 = 81, capped at standard 82. Away GL_5 1.70 is moderate bookmaker mispricing aligning with Over; only two H2H meetings (both under) and mutual total 2.3 prevent a higher ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Wales Championship South |
Carmarthen |
- |
Treowen Stars |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 4.25 (home scored 2.40, away conceded 2.50, away scored 1.80, home conceded 1.80) vs a 3.25 line. Both teams went over this line in 70% of matches; H2H totals were 5 and 2. Treowen have conceded 2+ in five straight away games and Carmarthen scored 3, 4, 2 in their last three home games. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate with GL_5 of 1.55 home and 1.75 away, away trend accelerating. Raw score 97% capped at 82% because H2H only has 2 matches, failing the elevated-ceiling condition. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Wales Championship South |
Aberystwyth |
- |
Llantwit Major |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is (1.20+2.60)/2 + (1.40+2.00)/2 = 3.60 vs line 3.0 (gap +0.60), far stronger than the 1st-half gap (1.30 vs 1.25). Llantwit Major's away matches are 7/10 Over 3.0, the only H2H finished 2-2, mutual-opponent total is 3.11, and home GL_5 market pricing error is 1.85 with accelerating trend. Away defensive fragility is clear: Llantwit concede 2.60 away and 4 of their last 5 away games conceded 2+; raw score 85 capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Wales Championship North |
Guilsfield |
- |
Ruthin Town FC |
Over 3.25 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 3.60 (A=1.90, B=2.20, C=1.30, D=1.80) clears the 3.25 line, with Guilsfield 4/4 Over 3.25 in home matches and Ruthin 2/3 Over away; H2H is split 3-2 and 1-1. Mutual-opponent total 3.73 supports the Over, away GL_5 1.50 shows moderate bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction, and Ruthin conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away while Guilsfield scored 2+ in last 3 home. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Wales Championship North |
Caersws |
- |
Newtown |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st-half total is 2.00 (home 0.80 scored/0.90 conceded, away 1.00 scored/1.30 conceded) against a 1.25 line, a +0.75 gap. Newtown's last 10 first halves went over 1.25 in 8/10 and Caersws in 6/10; Caersws home goal-line mispricing is 1.85, a strong bookmaker mispricing signal aligned with Over. Raw score 89 capped at standard 82 ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 13:30 |
Wales Championship North |
Brickfield Rangers |
- |
Penrhyncoch |
Brickfield Rangers -1.25 Asian Handicap |
72% |
Brickfield sit 1st (9 pts) vs Penrhyncoch 15th (0 pts). Home AH record is 5-0 over the last 5, and they have covered -1.25 in 4 of their last 5 matches (margins +5, +1, +4, +2, +6; 6 of last 7 home wins by 2+). Mutual opponents show a clear home lean across 4 of 5 comparative stats (goals NET +0.1 vs -1.3). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Iceland 1 Deild |
HK Kopavogur |
- |
Throttur Reykjavik |
HK Kopavogur +0.25 Asian Handicap |
70% |
HK Kopavogur are 8-1-0 at home with 26 scored and 9 conceded, while Throttur Reykjavik are 4-2-3 away with 20 scored and 12 conceded. HK have covered the +0.25 line in 7 of their last 10 matches, and against shared opponents they hold a 3-2 stat advantage with a goals NET edge of +0.9 vs +0.6 plus a 7-1-2 record vs Throttur's 4-2-4. H2H also supports the home side, with HK winning 4-3 and 5-2 in two of the last three meetings. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Sweden 1.div Södra |
Atvidabergs FF |
- |
Angelholm |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total 3.75 (home 2.40 scored/1.70 conceded; away 1.50 scored/1.90 conceded) vs line 2.75, a +1.00 gap. Atvidabergs are 9/10 over 2.75 at home and have scored 2+ in their last 3 home matches, while Angelholm are 5/9 over and H2H was 2-2 this season. Mutual opponents total 3.36 clears the line, and away GL_5 1.95 signals strong bookmaker mispricing; raw score 87 capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Scotland Championship |
Raith |
- |
Ayr |
Over 2.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.80 vs line 2.25 (home avg scored 1.70 / conceded 1.00 at home; away avg scored 2.00 / conceded 0.90 away), with Raith 7/10 recent matches over the line and Ayr 5/10 at 50%. H2H was 3-0, 2-1, 0-2 (2/3 over) and mutual opponents total 3.215 supports over; Ayr conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away. Raw score 86 capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Scotland Premiership |
Motherwell |
- |
Aberdeen |
Motherwell -0.25 Asian Handicap |
66% |
Motherwell sit 3rd (4 pts) vs Aberdeen 8th (3 pts). Against shared opponents Motherwell hold a +0.8 goal net (1.6 for, 0.8 against) while Aberdeen are -1.75 (0.25 for, 2.0 against), with Motherwell ahead in all five stat comparisons. H2H at Fir Park is 2-0 wins for Motherwell in both 2025/26 meetings, though Aberdeen's recent Asian Handicap form (4W-1L last 5) tempers confidence. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Scotland Championship |
Livingston |
- |
Dunfermline |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 2.85 (Livingston home 1.80 scored/1.00 conceded; Dunfermline away 1.80 scored/1.10 conceded) vs a 2.5 line. Livingston are 6/10 and Dunfermline 7/10 over 2.5 in their last 10, and Dunfermline have conceded 2+ in five straight away games. Home GL_5 is 1.70 (moderate bookmaker mispricing toward the over); H2H is empty/neutral, raw score capped at 82%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Scotland League Two |
Spartans |
- |
Elgin |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.20 vs line 2.5 (Spartans home 1.30 scored/1.90 conceded, Elgin away 1.40 scored/1.80 conceded). Both teams have 6/10 recent matches over 2.5; H2H totals 2,6,1,5 average 3.5, and mutual-opponent total 2.89 supports Over. Elgin conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away and home GL_5 1.50 mispricing points Over; raw score 89% capped at standard ceiling 82%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Scotland League Two |
Kelty Hearts |
- |
Dumbarton |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.45 (A=1.40, B=2.50, C=0.80, D=2.20) vs line 2.75, match potential 4.92; Kelty 7/10 and Dumbarton 6/10 recent matches over 2.75, H2H 3-3. Dumbarton conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away (Stirling, Dunfermline, Ayr, Clyde), Kelty scored 2+ in last 3 home, Kelty GL_5 bookmaker mispricing 2.30 accelerating. Score: base 50 + gap 14 + home hist 8 + away hist 5 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 0 + GL_5 home 4 + structural (away fragility 5, form 3) = 94, capped 82 standard (H2H sample <3). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Scotland League Two |
FC Edinburgh |
- |
Annan Athletic |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.40 vs 2.75 (A=1.40, B=2.50, C=1.00, D=1.90). Home 6/10 over, away 7/10 over; H2H 2/3 over (3-0, 2-2, 1-1); away Annan conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (Clyde 4-1, Airdrie 3-0, Gretna 2-4) and bookmaker mispricing GL_5 away 1.90. Scoring: Base 50 + gap 13 + home history 0 (excluded) + away history 8 + H2H 5 + common opponents 0 (excluded) + likelihood 0 (excluded) + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 4 (half adjustment) + structural fragility 5 + form 0 = 85 capped to 82 (standard ceiling). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Scotland League Two |
Clyde |
- |
Forfar |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1H total 1.90 from (Clyde 0.9 home HT scored + Forfar 1.4 away HT conceded)/2 and (Forfar 0.5 away HT scored + Clyde 1.0 home HT conceded)/2 vs line 1.0 (gap +0.9). Clyde 6/10 and Forfar 7/10 last 10 over 1.0 HT goals; full-time H2H is 3/3 under 2.5, which vetoed FT Over, but no H2H HT data exists. Score: base 50 + gap 15 + home history 5 + away history 8 = 78%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Scotland League One |
Montrose |
- |
East Kilbride |
Over 4.5 First Half Corners |
74% |
Expected 1H corners 5.35 vs line 4.5 (home 3.1/3.0, away 3.1/1.5). Montrose last 10 1H corner totals are 8/10 over 4.5 (80%) and East Kilbride 5/10 (50%), meeting the Over rule. Mutual-opponents volume (combined shots ~47, dangerous attacks ~183) supports corner pressure. Confidence 74% (base 50% + gap 8.5% + home history 10% + structural 5%). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England League 1 |
Wycombe |
- |
Plymouth |
Over 9.5 Corners |
78% |
Expected total corners are 10.90 vs a 9.5 line (home 5.70, away 5.70, home conceded 5.00, away conceded 5.40). Plymouth away games over 9.5 corners in 7 of 10 recent matches, with H2H corner totals of 16, 8, and 10 supporting the Over. Mutual opponents pressure is high: combined average total shots 45.88 and dangerous attacks 193.53. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England League 1 |
Milton Keynes Dons |
- |
Huddersfield |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total = (1.4+1.8)/2 + (1.8+1.3)/2 = 3.15 vs 2.5 line (+0.65); shot-based match potential also clears the line. Huddersfield are 9/10 (90%) over 2.5 in recent matches, MK Dons 5/10 (50%), H2H empty, and mutual opponents projects 3.0 total. Huddersfield conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away, and home market pricing error GL_5 1.65 (moderate, accelerating) aligns Over. Scoring: 50% base +13% gap +10% away history +5% common opponents +3% likelihood +5% GL_5 home +5% defensive fragility = 91% raw, capped at 82% standard. HT was weaker: 1.35 vs 1.0 line but only 40%/30% HT Over records. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Northern Ireland Premier |
Carrick Rangers |
- |
Coleraine |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 3.65 vs 3.0 line (Carrick home 2.70 scored/1.10 conceded; Coleraine away 2.10 scored/1.40 conceded). Coleraine are 6/10 over 3.0 away, Carrick 3/10 over 3.0 at home (3 pushes); H2H totals 2,5,4,3. Away defensive fragility (2+ conceded in 3 of last 5 away) plus Carrick home GL_5 2.05 (accelerating mispricing) support Over; raw score 84% capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Northern Ireland Premier |
Dungannon Swifts |
- |
Bangor FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is 3.55 (home 1.80 scored / 2.10 conceded; away 1.20 scored / 2.00 conceded) against a 2.75 line. Dungannon are 8/10 over and Bangor 6/10 over, mutual-opponent total is 3.02, and Bangor's away c_avg_on_target is 5.10; H2H is 2 of 3 under but not a veto. Raw score 83% capped at 82%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Czechia Div 1 Women |
Sparta Prague Women |
- |
Slovan Liberec Women |
Over 4.0 Goals |
70% |
Full-time expected goals are 3.80 (home 2.40 scored/1.30 conceded, away 1.90 scored/2.00 conceded) vs a 4.0 line, but H2H is 4/4 over 4.0 (7-0, 5-2, 4-1, 5-0) and mutual-opponent total is 4.36. Slovan have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (7,3,2), and the massive quality gap (Sparta 1.09 to 21) plus 100% H2H over record supports Over 4.0. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England National League South |
Folkestone Invicta |
- |
Chelmsford |
Folkestone Invicta +0 (Asian Handicap) |
67% |
Folkestone Invicta sit 8th vs Chelmsford 19th and have covered 4 of their last 5 Asian Handicap lines, while Chelmsford are 0W-2L-3V in that same span. Goal-line signals were only marginal: expected total 2.75 vs a 2.5 line but home over 2.5 at 60% and away at 40%, and 1st-half expected 1.10 vs a 1.0 line with neither side above 40% over 1.0; H2H is empty and mutual opponents are an insufficient 1-game sample, so the +0 handicap is the strongest qualifying angle. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England National League South |
Weston Super Mare |
- |
Dover |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected full-time total is 2.65 (Weston 1.2 scored at home, Dover 1.8 conceded away) vs the 2.5 line. Weston have gone over 2.5 in 60% of recent matches and mutual opponents total 2.6; Dover have conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games (2-0, 4-0, 2-1, 3-1). H2H is only two matches and split (1-1, 1-2), so no veto. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England National League South |
Braintree Town |
- |
Horsham |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected goals = (1.20+1.30)/2 + (1.30+2.50)/2 = 3.15 vs 2.5 line (gap +0.65); Braintree 9/10 recent games over 2.5, Horsham 5/10, and Braintree concede 2.50 goals per home game. Horsham conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away and mutual-opponent total 2.625 clears 2.5. Scoring: Base 50 + gap 13 + home 10 + away 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 0 + away fragility 5 - scoring drought 3 = 83, capped at 82 (standard ceiling). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England National League North |
South Shields |
- |
Merthyr Town |
South Shields -1.25 Asian Handicap |
65% |
South Shields sit 3rd (6 pts) vs 11th-placed Merthyr Town (3 pts), and against shared opponents the hosts hold a 4-of-5 net-stat advantage (goals +1.1 vs +0.7, shots +8.1 vs +1.1, on-target +5.0 vs +1.2). Home AH record is 4-0-1 across the last five, supporting -1.25, though only 1 of South Shields' last 5 matches was won by 2+ goals, keeping confidence at 65; goal-line markets failed history thresholds (FT expected 2.95 vs 3.25, HT expected 1.30 vs 1.5). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England National League North |
Harborough Town |
- |
Darlington 1883 |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total 3.40 vs 2.75 line (+0.65 gap: A=2.00, B=1.90, C=1.70, D=1.20). Harborough 6/10 and Darlington 7/10 last-10 matches went over 2.75; Darlington conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away and allow 5.90 on-target per away game. H2H empty/mutual opponents g<2 neutral; raw 83 (base 50 + gap 10 + home history 5 + away history 8 + GL_5 home 5 + defensive fragility 5) capped at 82 standard. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England National League North |
Worksop |
- |
Hereford FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals 3.10 (Worksop home 2.2 scored/1.0 conceded; Hereford away 1.6 scored/1.4 conceded) vs line 2.75. Worksop are over 2.75 in 6 of last 10 (60%) and Hereford in 8 of last 10 (80%); H2H results 2-3 and 2-1 both over. Mutual-opponent total clears line (3.04) and Hereford's away defence is fragile (conceded 2+ in 5 of last 5 away, mutual away c_avg_on_target 5.22). Confidence 82% (base 50% + gap 7% + home history 5% + away history 10% + H2H 0% + common opponents 5% + likelihood 0% + GL_5 home 0% + GL_5 away 0% + structural away fragility 5% + form momentum 0%). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England National League North |
Buxton |
- |
Hebburn Town |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is 3.25 from Buxton home scoring 2.10/conceding 1.00 and Hebburn away scoring 2.30/conceding 1.10, 0.50 above the 2.75 line. Both sides went over 2.75 in 6 of their last 10 matches (60%), mutual opponents produced a 3.00 combined average with Hebburn conceding 6.0 shots on target, and Hebburn's goal-line market pricing error is 1.85. No H2H data exists, and the 1st-half signal is weaker (1.35 expected vs 1.25 line). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
Albania Championship |
Laci |
- |
Af Elbasani |
Over 2.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected FT total is (2.00+1.30)/2 + (1.50+0.60)/2 = 2.70 vs a 2.0 line, with Af Elbasani going over 2.0 in 9 of 10 recent matches and Laci at 5 of 10 (50%, not contradicting). Laci have scored 2+ in their last 3 home games, shot-based match potential is 2.96, and away GL_5 is 1.20 (mild bookmaker mispricing), so Over 2.0 Goals is the strongest bet; 1st half projects 1.30 vs 0.75 but 1H over histories are only 50% each. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England Southern Premier League Central |
Real Bedford |
- |
Stratford Town |
Real Bedford -1 Asian Handicap |
72% |
Real Bedford sit 1st (9 pts, 9-3) vs Stratford Town 16th (2 pts, 2-4), and have covered the Asian Handicap in 4 of their last 5 matches, including last three league margins of +2, +2 and +2. Mutual opponents strongly favour Real Bedford with 5/5 stat advantages: goals NET +0.33 vs -1.20, total shots NET -0.83 vs -5.40, on-target NET 0.00 vs -3.20, dangerous attacks NET -6.66 vs -8.40, and goal frequency NET -1.62 vs +6.75. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England Southern Premier League Central |
Needham Market |
- |
Halesowen |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.35 (home scored 1.70 + away conceded 1.70 = 1.70; away scored 2.20 + home conceded 1.10 = 1.65) vs line 2.5, gap +0.85. Needham 6/10 and Halesowen 4/6 recent matches over 2.5; mutual-opponent total 2.94 clears 2.5; H2H is only 2 matches, both under, so neutral. Away defensive fragility confirmed (3 of last 5 away conceded 2+: Needham 3-0, Redditch 3-1, Quorn 2-2) and Halesowen GL_5 1.85 strong bookmaker mispricing align over. 1H expected 1.60 vs line 1.0 but weak 1H over records, so FT is stronger. Breakdown: base50+gap15+away history5+common opponents5+bookmaker mispricing4+structural fragility5=84 raw, capped at 82 standard (home history/likelihood excluded per stacking discipline). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England Northern Premier League |
Leek Town |
- |
Bamber Bridge |
Over 1.0 Goals - 1st Half |
68% |
Expected first-half total is 1.30 ((0.90+0.90)/2 + (0.40+0.40)/2) against a 1.0 line. Leek have produced 2+ first-half goals in 4 of 7 home matches (5 of 7 scored first-half) and Bamber have conceded first-half goals in all 3 away matches with 2 of 3 over 1.0; the April H2H was 3-2 with a 1-1 first half. Bamber's away GL_5 is 1.70 (accelerating vs 1.28 GL_10), and they conceded 2+ goals in five straight away matches. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England Northern Premier League |
FC United of Manchester |
- |
Workington |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected goals are (1.10+2.00)/2 + (1.30+1.80)/2 = 3.10 vs a 2.5 line (+0.60). FC United are 4/6 over 2.5 at home (67%) and Workington are 4/5 over 2.5 away (80%), having conceded 2+ in all five away games; away GL_5 is 1.55 (moderate bookmaker mispricing, accelerating). H2H is only two matches (2-2, 0-0) so neutral; raw score 87 after -3 for home scoring drought, capped at 82. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England Northern Premier League |
Curzon Ashton |
- |
Guiseley |
Over 2.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected full-time total is 3.20 vs line 2.5 (home 1.5 scored/2.1 conceded at home, away 1.8 scored/1.0 conceded away), a +0.70 gap. Curzon are 7/10 over 2.5 and Guiseley 5/10; H2H is empty and mutual opponents have g<2 so neutral. The first-half signal (expected 1.50 vs 1.0) is weaker because both teams' first-half over records are only around 50%, so FT Over 2.5 is the stronger bet. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England Isthmian Premier Division |
Ramsgate |
- |
St Albans |
Over 1.0,1.5 First Half Goals |
70% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.35 goals (Ramsgate home: 0.50 scored / 0.80 conceded, St Albans away: 0.80 scored / 0.60 conceded) against a 1.25 split line. Home HT history is 100% over (2/2) and away HT history is 67% over (4/6), with the lone H2H HT 0-0 neutral sample. St Albans' goal-line market pricing error is 1.60 and accelerating, adding edge to the over. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England Isthmian Premier Division |
Cheshunt |
- |
Burgess Hill Town |
Cheshunt +0 (Asian Handicap) |
65% |
Cheshunt have covered the level Asian Handicap in 8 of their last 10 (80%) while Burgess Hill Town have covered in only 5 of 10 (50%). Cheshunt are unbeaten at home with 0 goals conceded (1 draw), while Burgess Hill have lost their only away league match 0-2; mutual opponents sample is below the required threshold and H2H is empty. Goal lines are skipped: FT expected 3.25 vs line 3.0 but only 1 of 6 home and 1 of 7 away matches went over, and HT expected 1.45 vs line 1.25 with just 1 of 6 and 1 of 7 over. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England Isthmian Premier Division |
Whitehawk |
- |
Chatham Town |
Over 1.0 First Half Goals |
65% |
Expected first-half total is 1.80 vs the 1.0 line (gap +0.80): Whitehawk concede 1.50 first-half goals at home and Chatham concede 1.00 first-half away, with scoring averages 0.60/0.50 adding to the over. Confidence: base 50% + gap from line +15% = 65%; recent 1H history is mixed (Whitehawk 3/7 over, Chatham 3/6 over), H2H is empty, and GL_5 pricing error is mild at 1.20/1.15. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:00 |
England Southern Premier League South |
Chichester City |
- |
Chippenham Town |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected full-time total is 2.90 (home 1.40 scored/1.60 conceded at home; away 1.40 scored/1.40 conceded away) vs 2.5 line. Home have gone over 2.5 in 6 of last 10 (60%) and Chippenham's away defence has conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away games (Uxbridge 2-0, Horsham 3-2, Farnborough 2-1), while their away goal-line market pricing error is 1.50 moderate. Confidence scored 67.5% (gap +5, home history +5, away pricing error +2.5, away defensive fragility +5) capped to 68%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:30 |
Netherlands Eredivisie |
Fortuna Sittard |
- |
AZ |
Over 4.5 1st Half Corners |
65% |
Expected first-half corners total 5.30 (Fortuna home 2.60 for/2.70 against; AZ away 2.80 for/2.50 against) clears the 4.5 line by 0.80. Recent first-half corner history: AZ over 4.5 in 6 of 10 (60%) and Fortuna in 5 of 10 (50%), meeting the Over threshold. Mutual-opponents combined shots and dangerous-attacks volume supports sustained pressure. |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:30 |
Slovakia 2. Liga |
MSK Povazska Bystrica |
- |
STK Samorin |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time total is 3.10 (home: 1.60 scored/1.50 conceded at home; away: 1.90 scored/1.20 conceded away) vs a 2.75 line, with 6/10 home and 7/10 away recent matches over 2.75. Away defensive fragility is confirmed: Samorin conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches; H2H only 2 meetings so neutral. Confidence 76% (base 50% + gap 5% + home history 5% + away history 8% + H2H 0% + common opponents 0% + likelihood 3% + GL_5 home 0% + GL_5 away 0% + away fragility 5% + scoring drought 0% + form momentum 0%). |
|
| 22-08-2026 14:30 |
Slovakia 2. Liga |
OFK Banik Lehota |
- |
Slovan Bratislava B |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.50 vs line 2.75 (gap +0.75): home 2.10 scored/1.50 conceded, away 1.90 scored/1.50 conceded. Both teams are 70% over 2.75 in last 10 (7/10 each), mutual-opponent total 3.16 supports over, and home GL_5 1.50 bookmaker mispricing adds edge; H2H only 1 match (1-1) neutral. Raw score 94 capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:00 |
Iceland 1 Deild |
IF Vestri |
- |
Leiknir Reykjavik |
Over 3.0/3.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected FT total is 3.70 (home 0.80 scored/3.00 conceded at home; away 1.80 scored/1.80 conceded away) vs a 3.0/3.5 line. Leiknir conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (HK 2-1, Afturelding 3-2, Fylkir 3-0) and IF Vestri concede 3.00 per home match; away goal-line pricing error of 1.85 signals bookmaker mispricing on the over. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:00 |
Austria Bundesliga |
SCR Altach |
- |
Hartberg |
Over 2.5 Goals |
69% |
Expected FT goals 2.95 vs line 2.5 (A=1.40, B=1.30, C=1.40, D=1.80); Altach home games 6/10 over 2.5 and mutual-opponent total 2.78 supports over; H2H 0-0/2-2 is neutral with only 2 matches. Score: base 50 + gap 9 + home history 5 + common opponents 5 + market pricing 3 - Hartberg scoring drought 3 = 69. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:00 |
Bulgaria Second League |
Rilski Sportist |
- |
Montana |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 3.25 (A=1.20, B=2.10, C=1.50, D=1.70) vs the 2.5 line, a +0.75 gap. Montana away overs are 4/5 (80%) and they've conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games, while Rilski's two current home matches split 1-1 over/under; away GL_5 is 2.60 severe/accelerating bookmaker mispricing. H2H is empty and mutual opponents are insufficient (g<2), so raw score caps at the standard 82% ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:00 |
France Ligue 1 |
Toulouse |
- |
Lyon |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.80 vs 2.75 line: Toulouse home averages 1.30 scored/2.10 conceded, Lyon away 2.10 scored/2.10 conceded ((1.30+2.10)/2+(2.10+2.10)/2=3.80). 8 of 10 Toulouse and 9 of 10 Lyon recent matches produced 3+ goals, both H2H meetings finished 2-1/1-2, and Lyon conceded 2+ in 3+ of last 5 away games; GL_5 below 1.0 so no variance boost; raw score capped at 82%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:00 |
France Ligue 1 |
Troyes |
- |
Paris FC |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.25 vs line 2.75: home avg goals 2.00, away conceded 1.60; away scored 2.00, home conceded 0.90. Troyes 6/10 recent matches over 2.5 (60%), Paris FC 8/10 (80%), and mutual-opponents total is 3.25, all supporting over. Paris FC conceded 3,4,2 in 3 of their last 5 away matches, reinforcing the over signal. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:00 |
Czechia First League |
FC Trinity Zlin |
- |
Slovan Liberec |
Over 2.5 Goals |
76% |
FT expected total: (1.50+1.10)/2+(1.50+1.90)/2=3.00 vs line 2.5 (+0.50). Zlin 7/10 over 2.5, Liberec 5/10; mutual-opponent total 2.72 supports Over, H2H only 2 matches both under treated neutral, 1st-half signal weaker (1.10 vs 1.0). Confidence: Base 50 + gap 10 + home history 8 + away history 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 = 76%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:00 |
Czechia First League |
Mlada Boleslav |
- |
Slovacko |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.40 (home 2.10 scored/1.40 conceded at home, away 1.40 scored/1.90 conceded away) vs 2.75 line; last 5: home 3/5 over, away 3/5 over, H2H 2/3 over. Raw scoring 50 + gap 13 + home 5 + away 5 + H2H 5 + common opponents -5 + home bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.90) 4 + quality gap 5 = 82. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:00 |
Czechia First League |
SK Artis Brno |
- |
Sparta Prague |
Over 3.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected FT total is (1.20+1.80)/2+(1.80+2.30)/2=3.55 vs line 3.0; mutual-opponent total clears at 4.0. Sparta away have conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches (Lyon 3-0, Mlada Boleslav 2-0, FC Brno 3-1, Nordsjaelland 5-1), and Artis Brno GL_5 is 1.55 moderate mispricing supporting over; over-3.0 history is mixed at 40%/50% but structural fragility and expected-goals gap give the edge. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:00 |
Azerbaijan Premier League |
Sabah |
- |
FK Sumqayit |
Under 1.25 First Half Goals |
80% |
Expected 1st-half total: (0.50+0.80)/2 + (0.40+0.50)/2 = 1.10 vs line 1.25. Sabah home first halves went under 1.25 in 4/4 (0,0,1,0 HT goals) and Sumqayit away first halves went under in 4/4 (0,1,1,1), with both teams failing to score in 3+ of those matches. Scoring: Base 50% + home HT history 10% + away HT history 10% + low 1st-half scorers 5% + away HT scoring failure 5% = 80%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:15 |
France Ligue 1 |
Lens |
- |
Auxerre |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
73% |
Expected FT total 3.05 ((1.80+1.20)/2 + (1.90+1.20)/2) vs 2.75 line, with Lens 50% and Auxerre 60% over 2.75; mutual opponents total 3.12 and Auxerre c_avg_on_target 5.38 also support over. 1st half expected total 1.35 vs 1.25 is weaker, and H2H has only 2 matches (neutral), so FT over is the stronger signal. |
|
| 22-08-2026 15:30 |
Hungary NB II |
Gyirmot SE |
- |
Kecskemeti TE |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total = (2.30+1.30)/2 + (1.80+0.80)/2 = 3.10 vs 2.5, with Gyirmot 6/10 (60%) and Kecskemeti 8/10 (80%) over 2.5; mutual-opponent total 3.59 and Kecskemeti conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away. Raw scoring: 50 base +12 gap +5 home hist +10 away hist +5 common opponents +5 away fragility = 87, capped at 82 (standard ceiling; no H2H). |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:00 |
Estonia Meistriliiga |
Harju JK Laagri |
- |
JK Nomme Kalju |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals |
73% |
Expected first-half total is 1.80 (home 1.10 scored / 0.60 conceded at home, away 1.30 scored / 0.60 conceded away) against a 1.25 line, a 0.55-goal edge. Home and away first-half over records are 40% and 50%, but both sides show accelerating goal-line mispricing (home GL5 1.80, away GL5 1.95), supporting the Over. No H2H first-half data is available. |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:00 |
Iceland 1 Deild |
Njardvik |
- |
Volsungur |
Over 3.5 Goals |
73% |
Base 50% + gap +5% + home history +0% + away history +5% + H2H +0% + common opponents +5% + likelihood +0% + GL_5 home +0% + GL_5 away +0% + structural (away defensive fragility +5%, form surge +3%) = 73%. Expected total 3.90 vs 3.5 line: Njardvik home 2.00 scored/1.70 conceded, Volsungur away 2.00 scored/2.10 conceded. Volsungur are 6/10 over 3.5, conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (3-1 at Fylkir, 3-3 at Leiknir, 4-4 at IR), and mutual opponents total 3.80 also clears 3.5. |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:00 |
Slovakia Super Liga |
Dunajska Streda |
- |
FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova |
Dunajska Streda -0.75 (Asian Handicap) |
67% |
Dunajska Streda have won all four H2H meetings (2-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0), all by margins that cover -0.75. Home AH record is 4 wins in their last 5, while Podbrezova covered only 2 of their last 5. Mutual opponents show home edge in 4 of 5 comparison stats, including goals net +0.9 vs +0.29 and total shots net +7.3 vs -0.14. |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:00 |
Italy Serie A |
Udinese |
- |
Como |
Como -0.5 Asian Handicap |
66% |
Como's AH record last 5 is 3W-0V-2L vs Udinese's 0W-2V-3L, and Como covered -0.5 in 3 of their last 5 overall while Udinese covered +0.5 only 1 of 5. Mutual opponents strongly favor Como across all five stats (goal net +1.4 vs +0.1, shot net +2.1 vs -0.8, dangerous attacks +8.7 vs +2.2), with Como also ahead on standings sort position. H2H is a small sample and neutral: 0-0 and 1-0 Como. |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:00 |
Türkiye Super Lig |
Caykur Rizespor |
- |
Samsunspor |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT goals 3.05 ((1.40+1.30)/2+(1.80+1.60)/2) vs 2.5 line. Rizespor 7/10 home and Samsunspor 8/10 recent matches over 2.5; mutual-opponent total 3.69, likelihood 80%, market pricing error GL_5 mild (1.15/1.40). Score: 50 base +10 gap +8 home +10 away +0 H2H +5 common-opponents +3 likelihood +0 GL_5 +0 structural = 86%, capped at 82% standard (H2H only 2 matches). |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:00 |
Türkiye Super Lig |
Caykur Rizespor |
- |
Samsunspor |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 3.05 (A 1.40, B 1.30, C 1.80, D 1.60) vs line 2.5, gap +0.55. Home 7/10 (70%) and away 8/10 (80%) recent matches over 2.5; mutual-opponent total 3.69 over; H2H 4-1 and 1-1 is only 2 matches so neutral. Confidence: 50 base +10 gap +8 home +10 away +0 H2H +5 common opponents +3 likelihood +0 GL5/structural = 86, capped at 82 (standard ceiling; no 3+ H2H support for elevated). |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:30 |
Italy Serie A |
Udinese |
- |
Como |
Over 8.5 Corners |
73% |
Expected corners 9.6 vs 8.5 line (E=3.8, H=4.9, G=6.1, F=4.4; gap +1.1). Como away over 8.5 in 5/7 (71%), Udinese home 3/6 (50%); H2H corners only 2 matches (8,5) neutral; mutual opponents combined 47.1 shots/165.1 dangerous attacks supports pressure. Score 73%: base 50 + gap 10 + away history 8 + structural 5. |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:30 |
Croatia HNL |
Slaven Belupo |
- |
HNK Gorica |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.20 vs line 2.5 (gap +0.70): Slaven home 1.60 scored/2.40 conceded, Gorica away 0.80 scored/1.60 conceded; shot-based match potential 4.81 clears line. Last 5: Slaven 4/5 Over 2.5, Gorica 3/5 Over 2.5; H2H 3/4 Over; mutual opponents total 2.90. Gorica conceded 2+ goals in all last 5 matches. Breakdown: Base 50% + gap +10% + home history +10% + away history +5% + H2H +5% + common opponents +5% + structural defensive fragility +5% + GL_5 home +0% + GL_5 away +0% = 90% raw, capped at standard 82% (elevated tier not met: away history 60%, not 70%+). |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:30 |
Denmark Division 1 |
AB Copenhagen |
- |
Hvidovre IF |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.35 (A=2.10, B=1.80, C=1.60, D=1.20) vs split line mid 2.75, gap +0.60. Both teams 6/10 last matches over 2.5; mutual opponents total 3.875 clears the line; Hvidovre away conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5. Breakdown: 50 + gap 12 + home history 5 + away history 5 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 0 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 0 + away defensive fragility 5 = 82, standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 16:30 |
Qatar Stars League |
Al Sadd |
- |
Al-Ahli Doha |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 4.05 vs 3.5 line (home 2.70 scored/1.90 conceded at home; away 1.90 scored/1.60 conceded away), home 7/10 over 3.5, away 4/8 over, mutual-opponent total 3.58. Away conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away and home last 3 home matches all scored 2+. Scoring: Base 50 + gap 10 + home history 8 + away history 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + GL5 0/0 + structural 8 = 84 capped at 82. |
|
| 22-08-2026 17:00 |
Northern Ireland Premier |
Crusaders |
- |
Portadown |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected total is 2.80 vs the 2.5 line: (1.9+1.4)/2 + (1.3+1.0)/2 = 2.80. H2H is 3/3 over 2.5 (4-0, 0-4, 2-1), and mutual opponents produce a 3.38 total, also clearing the line. Home/away recent histories are both 50% over and GL_5 is under 1.0 for both, so confidence lands at 65%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 17:00 |
Austria Regionalliga Ost |
SV Gloggnitz |
- |
Parndorf |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 4.30 from home 1.90 scored / 2.30 conceded at home and away 3.10 scored / 1.30 conceded away, well above the 3.0 line. Home 6/10 (60%) and away 7/10 (70%) last matches over 3.0, mutual-opponent total 3.2 supports over, H2H only one 0-1 under so neutral; GL_5 1.85 home / 1.75 away show bookmaker mispricing. Raw score 91% capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 17:00 |
Hungary NB II |
Gyirmot SE |
- |
Kecskemeti TE |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
75% |
Expected total 3.10 (Gyirmot home 2.30 scored/0.80 conceded; Kecskemeti away 1.80 scored/1.30 conceded) versus a 2.5/3.0 line. Both teams are 3 of 5 over 2.5 in recent matches, mutual opponents total 3.59 supports Over, and Kecskemeti away conceded 2+ in 3 of 5 (Ajka 3-1, Soroksar 3-0, Kozarmisleny 2-1). |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:00 |
Netherlands Eredivisie |
NEC |
- |
Excelsior |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals |
80% |
1st half expected total is 1.75 vs line 1.25 (+0.50). NEC home first halves went over 1.25 in 4 of their last 5, and Excelsior away first halves also went over 1.25 in 4 of their last 5, with both sides consistently scoring early. Scoring: base 50 + gap 10 + home history 10 + away history 10 + H2H 0 + structural 0 + market pricing error 0 = 80%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:00 |
Canada Premier League |
HFX Wanderers |
- |
Vancouver FC |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 3.35 vs the 2.5/3.0 line (HFX home 1.50 scored/1.90 conceded; Vancouver away 1.90 scored/1.40 conceded), and shot-based match potential is 5.48, both pointing Over. HFX home matches are 3 of 4 Over 2.75 and Vancouver away are 4 of 5 Over; Vancouver conceded 2+ in 3 of its last 5 away matches. H2H is only 2 matches (0-1, 3-1) so neutral; bookmaker mispricing is strong (home GL_5 2.05, away GL_5 1.80). |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:00 |
Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
Argentino Merlo |
- |
Arsenal de Sarandi |
Over 0.75 First Half Goals |
75% |
HT expected total is 1.30 vs 0.75 line: Argentino Merlo home HT 0.70 scored/0.70 conceded, Arsenal away HT 0.80 scored/0.40 conceded. Home matches 8/10 over 0.75 first half, away 6/10; H2H HT unavailable, GL_5 home 1.30 mild, away 0.85 calibrated. Confidence: 50 base +10 gap +10 home history +5 away history +0 H2H = 75%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:00 |
Czechia First League |
Slavia Prague |
- |
Bohemians 1905 |
Under 12.5 Asian Corners |
82% |
Full-time corners project to 9.5 ((5.50+5.00)/2 + (4.10+4.40)/2) versus a 12.5 line, a 3.0-corner gap. Slavia home games stayed under 12.5 corners in 8 of 10 (80%) and Bohemians in 8 of 10 (80%); the single H2H corner total (14) is treated as neutral. No structural pressing signal supports 13+, so Under 12.5 Corners is the strongest market. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:15 |
Slovenia Prva Liga |
NK Celje |
- |
NK Radomlje |
NK Celje -1.25 Asian Handicap |
70% |
Celje covered -1.25 in all 3 H2H meetings (3-1, 3-1, 3-0). Mutual opponents show Celje with a 5/5 stat advantage and goals NET +1.5 vs Radomlje +0.29, while Celje have a 4-1 AH record in their last 5 and Radomlje away conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 5 away matches. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:30 |
Argentina Nacional B |
Patronato Parana |
- |
Gimnasia Jujuy |
Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half |
75% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.10 from (0.80+0.50)/2 + (0.50+0.40)/2 vs a 0.75 line. Patronato have hit Over 0.75 in 8 of 10 first halves (80%) and Gimnasia Jujuy in 6 of 10 (60%); H2H has only one meeting (2-0 FT, no HT data), so neutral. Home GL_5 1.75 moderate bookmaker mispricing aligns with Over. Confidence: Base 50% + gap 7% + home HT history 10% + away HT history 5% + H2H 0% + structural 0% + GL_5 home 2.5% = 74.5% -> 75. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:30 |
Argentina Nacional B |
Almagro |
- |
CA Colegiales |
Over 1.5/2.0 Goals |
68% |
Expected FT total = (1.00+1.00)/2 + (1.10+1.10)/2 = 2.10 vs the 1.5/2.0 line, with match-potential cross-check 3.79 agreeing. Almagro are 8/10 over 1.5 goals and Colegiales are 5/10, while H2H is only one 1-0 match (neutral). Mutual opponents combined avg is 1.68 and market pricing error is mild (home GL5 0.50, away 1.05), keeping confidence at 68%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:30 |
Republic of Ireland First Division |
Longford Town |
- |
Bray Wanderers |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.70 (Home scored at home 2.50, Away conceded away 1.10, Away scored away 1.90, Home conceded at home 1.90) vs 2.75 line; Longford are 9/10 Over 2.75 and Bray are 7/10. Bray conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (6 at Galway, 2 at Wexford, 2 at Cork), mutual-opponent total 2.99 supports Over, H2H mixed (5-2, 1-0, 0-2). Scoring: 50 base +15 gap +10 home +8 away -5 H2H +5 common opponents +3 likelihood +5 away fragility = 91% raw, capped at 82% standard tier. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:30 |
Switzerland Super League |
FC Zurich |
- |
Basel |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is 3.70 vs line 3.0 using FC Zurich home 1.80 scored / 2.30 conceded and Basel away 1.40 scored / 1.90 conceded. Both sides have 5/10 Over 3.0 records (with pushes), H2H is mixed (2-1, 3-4, 2-0), but Basel's away defence is crumbling: conceded 2+ in 10 straight away and 3+ in last 5 (4-0 at Lugano, 3-0 at Young Boys, 3-1 at Thun, 3-0 at St Gallen, 4-2 at Lucerne). Bookmaker mispricing is severe on both sides (home GL_5 2.10, away 2.70, both accelerating); scoring: 50 base +10 gap +3 likelihood +8 GL home +12 GL away +5 defensive fragility +3 form -5 common opponents = 86%, capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:30 |
Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
Deportivo Armenio |
- |
Real Pilar |
Over 7.5 Corners |
80% |
Expected corners total (5.1+3.3)/2 + (4.7+4.5)/2 = 8.8 vs 7.5 line (+1.3). Deportivo Armenio matches went over 7.5 corners in 8 of last 10 (80%) and Real Pilar in 6 of 10 (60%), with H2H corner totals split neutral (10 and 4). Home team's mutual-opponent advantage (4-1 stat edge) supports sustained pressure and corner generation. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:30 |
Argentina Nacional B |
San Martin SJ |
- |
Gimnasia y Tiro |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 1.95 = (1.2+0.5)/2 + (1.2+1.0)/2 vs line 1.75. San Martin SJ are 8/10 over this line and Gimnasia y Tiro 6/10 over. Mutual-opponent total 1.90 supports Over, H2H is only one meeting (1-1) so neutral, and market pricing error is low (GL_5 0.55/0.90), so no variance boost. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:45 |
France Ligue 1 |
Troyes |
- |
Paris FC |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.25 (Troyes home 2.00 GF/0.90 GA, Paris FC away 2.00 GF/1.60 GA) vs 2.5/3.0 line. Troyes 6/10 Over (60%), Paris FC 8/10 Over (80%); Paris FC conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away (Angers 3, Mainz 4, Lorient 2, PSG 2). H2H empty; mutual-opponent total 3.25; GL_5 pricing error mild (home 0.90, away 1.10); raw score 88 capped at 82. |
|
| 22-08-2026 18:45 |
France Ligue 1 |
Toulouse |
- |
Lyon |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 3.80 (Toulouse home 1.30 scored, 2.10 conceded; Lyon away 2.10 scored, 2.10 conceded) vs 2.5 line, gap +1.30; shot-based potential 7.33 also supports Over. Toulouse home 8/10 over 2.5, Lyon away 9/10 over 2.5; last two H2Hs both finished with 3 goals. Lyon away conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (Betis 4, Toulouse 2, Strasbourg 3); GL_5 is only 0.60 for both, so no bookmaker mispricing edge; raw 93 capped at standard ceiling 82 because H2H has only 2 matches (elevated requires 3+). |
|
| 22-08-2026 19:00 |
Croatia HNL |
Dinamo Zagreb |
- |
NK Varazdin |
Over 3.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected total is 3.15 — home 2.60 scored / 0.80 conceded at home, away 2.10 scored / 0.80 conceded away — against a 3.0 line. Dinamo's last 5 home games are 3 over, 1 under, 1 push on 3.0; Varazdin is 2 over, 2 under, 1 push; H2H totals are 3, 4, 4, 4; mutual-opponent total is 3.475. Varazdin conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches, reinforcing Over. |
|
| 22-08-2026 19:00 |
Italy Serie B |
Avellino |
- |
Arezzo |
Over 2.25 Goals |
71% |
Expected total 3.00 (Avellino home 1.70 scored/1.50 conceded; Arezzo away 1.70 scored/1.10 conceded) vs 2.25 line = +0.75 gap. Avellino 6/10 over 2.25 (60%); Arezzo 4/10 over and 2 of last 5 away failed to score, but home GL_5 2.05 vs GL_10 1.38 (accelerating) adds bookmaker mispricing edge. Confidence: Base 50 + gap 15 + home hist 5 + away hist 0 + H2H 0 + common 0 + likelihood 0 + GL_5 home 4 + structural -3 = 71%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 19:00 |
Italy Serie B |
Avellino |
- |
Arezzo |
Over 2.25 Goals |
74% |
Full-time expected total is 3.00 goals (Avellino home 1.70 scored/1.50 conceded; Arezzo away 1.70 scored/1.10 conceded) against a 2.25 line, a +0.75 gap. Avellino's last 10 matches went over 2.25 in 6 of 10 (60%), Arezzo 4 of 10 (40%), no H2H data, and Avellino's goal-line market pricing error is 2.05 vs 1.38 GL_10 (accelerating), supporting the Over. 1st half expected total is only 1.10 vs a 1.0 line with weak 20% over histories for both sides, so full-time is the stronger signal. |
|
| 22-08-2026 19:30 |
Venezuela Primera Division |
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano |
- |
Deportivo La Guaira |
Over 2.25 Goals |
74% |
FT expected total 2.80 vs 2.25 line (A=1.10, B=1.50, C=1.70, D=1.30). Home 6/10 and away 6/10 last matches over 2.25; H2H 1-0 under twice but sample only 2, so neutral. Away goal-line mispricing GL_5 1.50 supports Over with expected total above the opening line, while mutual-opponent total 2.07 is slightly below the line, tempering confidence. |
|
| 22-08-2026 20:00 |
Argentina Nacional B |
Club Ciudad de Bolivar |
- |
Racing de Cordoba |
Over 1.75 Goals |
80% |
Expected FT total = (0.90+1.00)/2 + (1.00+1.50)/2 = 2.20 vs 1.75 line. Both Club Ciudad de Bolivar and Racing de Cordoba are 7/10 (70%) over 1.75 in their last 10, mutual-opponent total is 2.40, and the one H2H finished 2-0. Confidence: base 50 + gap 9 + home history 8 + away history 8 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 - home scoring drought 3 = 80%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 20:00 |
Argentina Nacional B |
Ferro Carril Oeste |
- |
All Boys |
Over 1.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total 2.15 (home scored 1.60/conceded 1.20 at home; away scored 0.70/conceded 0.80 away) vs 1.75 line. Ferro 8/10 and All Boys 7/10 recent matches over 1.75; All Boys conceded 2+ in five straight away games (2,2,4,3,2), mutual-opponent total 2.36 supports over. H2H is a single 0-0 meeting (neutral), Ferro GL_5 1.60 marks moderate bookmaker mispricing; raw score 91.5 capped at 82. |
|
| 22-08-2026 20:30 |
Canada Premier League |
Cavalry FC |
- |
Atletico Ottawa |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total = (2.00+1.90)/2 + (2.50+1.10)/2 = 3.75 vs line 3.0; Atletico Ottawa are 7/10 over 3.0, Cavalry 3/10 over with 2 pushes, and H2H totals were 4,3,3,4. Mutual-opponent total is 3.5, Ottawa conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away games, and market pricing error is mild (GL_5 1.10 each). Confidence: 50% base +15% gap +8% away history +5% common opponents +5% away defensive fragility +3% form surge = 86% raw, capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 22:30 |
USA NWSL Women |
Kansas City Current Women |
- |
Reign FC Women |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 3.05 vs 2.5/3.0 line (A=1.40, B=1.50, C=1.70, D=1.50); KC are 6/10 and Reign 7/10 over 2.75 in recent matches. Confidence: 50% base +5% gap +5% KC +8% Reign +3% likelihood +5% away defensive fragility = 76%; Reign conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away games, H2H is only 2 matches and split 1-1 over/under, so neutral. |
|
| 22-08-2026 23:00 |
USA USL Championship |
Lexington SC |
- |
Las Vegas Lights FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
68% |
Expected full-time total is 2.65 ((1.50+1.10)/2+(1.50+1.20)/2) vs a 2.75 line; shot-based match potential is 5.25 and mutual-opponents total 3.49, both Over signals. Las Vegas away matches are over 2.75 in 6 of 10 (60%) while Lexington home matches are 5 of 10 (50%), and Lexington's goal-line market pricing error (GL_5 1.70) adds edge. |
|
| 22-08-2026 23:00 |
USA USL Championship |
Detroit City FC |
- |
Tampa Bay Rowdies |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected goals 2.75 vs line 2.25, with Detroit home scoring 1.60/conceding 0.80 and Tampa away scoring 1.90/conceding 1.20; both sides are 50% to Over 2.25, but mutual opponents total 2.54 supports Over and the two H2H meetings (2-0, 1-1) are too small a sample to veto. Bookmaker mispricing is severe for Tampa (GL_5 2.55 vs GL_10 2.00, accelerating) and moderate for Detroit (GL_5 1.55), both aligned with Over. Confidence capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 22-08-2026 23:00 |
USA USL Championship |
Brooklyn FC |
- |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0.0 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Pittsburgh sit 17 points clear of Brooklyn in the East (30 vs 13) and have won 7 of their last 10 away matches, while Brooklyn's recent home sample is 0-0-6 with just 1 goal scored and 9 conceded. Mutual opponents also favour Pittsburgh: W2 D3 L1 and goal net 0.00 vs Brooklyn's W2 D0 L5 and -0.43, with the level handicap voiding on a draw. Goal lines were contradictory: FT Over 2.5 has Brooklyn 70% over but Pittsburgh only 30%, and HT Over 1.0 has Brooklyn 70% over but Pittsburgh just 10%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 23:00 |
Nicaragua Apertura |
Managua FC |
- |
HYH Export Sebaco FC |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
71% |
Expected FT total 3.00 (A=2.30, B=1.10, C=1.40, D=1.20) vs split line 2.5/3.0; 8 of Managua's last 10 and 5 of Sebaco's last 10 exceeded 2.5 goals, and Managua's last three home matches all produced 2+ home goals. Confidence: Base 50% + gap +5% + home history +10% + away history +0% + H2H +0% (2 matches) + mutual opponents +0% + likelihood +3% + GL_5 home +0% (0.80) + GL_5 away +0% (0.95) + form momentum +3% = 71%. |
|
| 22-08-2026 23:30 |
USA USL Championship |
Charleston Battery |
- |
Miami FC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
73% |
FT expected total 3.60 (Charleston home 2.50 scored + Miami away 1.70 conceded) vs line 3.0; Charleston 6/9 non-push matches over 3.0 and Miami 5 of last 5 away conceded 2+ goals. H2H empty, mutual opponents total 2.20 cuts against, but structural away fragility and home form (4 of last 5 home scored 2+) support Over. Confidence: base 50 + gap 12 + home history 5 - common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + away fragility 5 + form 3 = 73. |
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