Many of you are already familiar with the backtesting system, but if you are not, we recommend reading the following article first: In-Play Notifications Backtesting System. In a nutshell, the backtesting system provides you a unique opportunity to determine your custom notifications’ profitability without need to collect data for months. With the latest update – we have excluded games with extra time, fixed multiple bugs, and doubled the number of games analysed by the backtesting system from 40,000 up to 80,000, which is around one year of games in total. It gives a pretty good insight into profitable formulas, we believe.
We have listed five strategies any football bettor can benefit from – two of them are Asian Corners over bets and three underdog ones (+ Asian Handicap market). Use strategies below to build your notifications. The key to success is to combine stats of real-time, likelihood, averages, and odds into a notification. Not to keep you waiting too long, let’s dive into profitable models that are easily achievable to any baller.
Asian Corners Strategies
Over Full-Time Strategy
Let’s start with a real banger, the best model you will find in this article. ROI of 21% says it all, or what?
Results: 90-43 | Win Rate 67.6% | ROI 21.6%
Time Period: 75-85th minute
| Type | Event | Team | Equation | Value | Value type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood | Min. Number of Previous Games | – | – | 10 | – |
| Likelihood (Home) | Over 9.5 Corners | Home | More than, or equal to | 70 | % |
| Odds (Kick-off) | 1×2 | Home | Less than, or equal to | 4 | – |
| Stats | Corners | Combined | Equal to | 6 | Sum |
| Stats | Goals difference | Away | Equal to | 1 | Sum |
| Stats | Total Shots | Combined | More than, or equal to | 10 | Sum |
| Odds (Last) | Asian Corners | Over | Equal to | 7.5 (Min.odds 1.8) | – |
Over Half-Time Strategy
Not as great as the full-time one above, but still provides a decent value and foundation to build your customised notification on top of that.
Results: 73-43 Win Rate 62.9% | ROI 13.22%
Time Period: 25-39th minute
| Type | Event | Team | Equation | Value | Value type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likelihood (Home) | Min. Number of Previous Games | – | – | 10 | – |
| Averages | HT Avg. Corners | Home | More than, or equal to | 3 | Sum |
| Odds (Last) | 1st-half Asian Corners | Over | More than, or equal to | 1.5 (Min. odds 1.8) | – |
| Stats | Corners | Combined | Equal to | 0 | Sum |
| Stats | Goals difference | Away | Less than, or equal to | 1 | Sum |
Asian Handicap Strategies
Everybody like underdogs, especially we at BetBallers, thus the next three ones are underdog bets. We have excluded games with incomplete statistics or where the goal was scored within two minutes after the notification moment.
Home Losing by 1: +.0.5 Strategy
Results: 100-52 Win Rate 65.7% / ROI 18.26%
Time Period: 1st half
| Type | Event | Team | Equation | Value | Value type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats | Goals difference | Away | Equal to | 1 | Sum |
| Stats | Pressure Index (Last 20) | Home | More than equal to | 66 | % |
| Odds (Kick-off) | 1×2 | Home | Less than, or equal to | 5 | – |
| Odds (Last) | Asian Handicap | Home | Equal to | 0.5 (Min.odds 1.8) | – |
Home Losing by 2 +0.5 Strategy
Results: 50-30 | Win Rate 62.50% | ROI 12.50%
Time Period: 1st half
| Type | Event | Team | Equation | Value | Value type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats | Goals difference | Away | Equal to | 2 | Sum |
| Stats | Pressure Index (Last 20) | Home | More than equal to | 55 | % |
| Stats | Total Shots | Home | More than equal to | 0 | Sum |
| Odds (Kick-off) | 1×2 | Home | Less than equal to | 6 | – |
| Odds (Last) | Asian Handicap | Home | Equal to | 0.5 (Min.odds 1.8) | – |
Away Losing by 1: +0.5 Strategy
Results: 62-38 | Win Rate 62% | ROI 11.60%
Time Period: 1st half
| Type | Event | Team | Equation | Value | Value type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats | Goals difference | Home | Equal to | 1 | Sum |
| Stats | Pressure Index (Last 20) | Away | More than equal to | 70 | % |
| Odds (Kick-off) | 1×2 | Away | Less than equal to | 4 | – |
| Odds (Last) | Asian Handicap | Away | Equal to | 0.5 (Min.odds 1.8) | – |
That’s about it for this time. Hopefully, you will get a great starting point to understanding possibilities of creating in-play alerts. We have always told you that it is possible to beat bookmakers if you have the right tools and knowledge. It is hard to spot value with the naked eye in most cases, but with the help of BetBallers, things will get a lot easier for you.
If you are new to BetBallers, we recommend starting with reading the following articles first:
- Quick insight into the backtesting system
- How to create custom in-play alerts
- Tips, tricks, and the core features you should know about BetBallers
Don’t wait any longer; join with BetBallers and set up notifications to boost your winnings! Bear in mind that the backtesting system is available only to users with an active Gold-Ballers subscription (incl. 1, 3, or 6 months), not including the 2-day Gold-Baller subscription. Notifications are available to all users with any Gold-Baller subscription.
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Latest updates
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February 2021
Baller, long time no see! The last couple of months have been busy ones for our team. Here is the latest list of the most notable updates that will help you gear up your game. Likelihood stats of cards, these stats are available on both the team and match page, as well as on the […]
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October 2020
We have spent a lot of time on improving the backtesting system lately. Here is a quick rundown of the latest notable updates: We have increased the number of games processed by the backtesting system up to 80,000, which is around one year of games A backtest run takes into account the values of favourited […]
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June 2020
We know nobody wants to hear about the changes “under the hood” such as tweaking the backtesting system and server. Therefore, let’s get down to business, we have made the Teams info tab stats filterable by league on the match page. All stats such as averages, likelihood, variance and scoring minutes are calculated based on […]
