Likelihood and Variance stats explained

Variance Stats (aka Error Stats)

The variance stats show an average difference from the starting handicap line. It gives you an idea of whether a team is over/undervalued and shows which league/teams the market has priced most inaccurately in the past.
The calculation is:  [Team’s score difference] -/+ [Team’s starting line]; always using the absolute value.

Here is an example of Asian Handicap error stats based on four games:

  • A home team’s starting Asian Handicap line is set at -0.5, they won the game 3-1; the average error equals 1.5  [ 3-1 => 2 – 0.5 => 1.5  ]
  • A home team’s starting Asian Handicap line is set at -1, they lost the game 2-4; the average error equals 3 [ 2-4 => -2 – 1 ) => abs(-3) => 3 ]
  • An away team’s starting Asian Handicap line is set at+0.75, the game ended 2-2; the average error equals 0.75 [ 2-2 => 0 + 0.75 => 0.75 ]
  • A home team’s starting Asian Handicap line is set at +1.25, they won the game 1-0; the average error equals 2.25 [ 1-0 => 1 + 1.25 => 2.25 ]

Based on these four games, the average error equals 1.875 => (1.5 + 3 + 0.75 + 2.25) / 4 (number of games).

Here is an example of Goal-line error stats based on four games:

  • The starting line of Goal-line is set at 2.5, the final score 3-1; the average error equals 1.5  [ 3+1 => 2.5 – 4 => abs(-1.5)=> 1.5  ]
  • The starting line of Goal-line is set at  2.75, the final score 2-4; the average error equals 3.25 [ 2+4 => 2.75 – 6  ) => abs(-3.25) => 3.25
  • The starting line of Goal-line is set at 4 , the final score 2-2; the average error equals 0 [ 2+2 => 4 – 4 => 0 ]
  • The starting line of Goal-line is set 2,25, the final score 1-0; the average error equals 1.25 [ 1+0 => 1 – 2.25 => abs(-1.25 ) => 1.25]

Based on these four games, the average error equals 1.5 => (1.5 + 3.25 + 0 + 1.25) / 4 (number of games).

The lower the number is, the more accurate the work the bookmakers have done with pricing games. We recommend taking a look at teams with a greater number as these teams have been harder to price for bookies and have more potential value. The same model applies to the Goal Line and Asian Corners market.

Variance stats

Error AH 5/10/15 – variance stats of Asian Handicap based on the last 5/10/15 games.
Error GL 5/10/15 – variance stats of Goal-Line based on the last 5/10/15 games.
Error AC 5/10/15 – variance stats of Asian Corners based on the last 5/10/15 games.

We have listed teams with the greatest average difference from the opening line (Asian Handicap & Goal Line & Asian Corners) on the Statistics page, as well as on every league page, for instance, England Championships.

Likelihood Stats

The purpose of statistics is to help identify outcomes that have happened on a highly regular or infrequent basis and to determine potential value bets.
Likelihood percentages

The numbers represent the % of times an event has happened thus far based on the previous results. For instance, FH Over 0.5 80%[8]. The small green number indicates the number of games these stats are based on. In the given case, the home side stats are based on the last 10 games, and 80% means that 8 times out of 10, they have either scored or conceded at least one goal in the first half. The away team, on the other hand, has scored or conceded at least one goal in all of the last 10 games. The number underneath (90%) these two is the average of both.

If these stats are very high or low, then this means it has happened on a very regular basis, and the likelihood is that there’s an increased probability it will happen again.

  • Green stats are designed to be mainly used for “Over” (Goal-line, Corners) markets.
  • Red stats are designed to be mainly used for “Under” (Goal-line, Corners) markets.
  • Pink/Yellow stats are a little less reliable to bet on, as these outcomes have been less consistent based on the team’s previous games. Yet, a high yellow stat like 80% on the “Winning Half-Time” or “Scored First-Half” market is still a quite reliable indicator in some cases.

It is never suggested to just blindly choose the highest percentages and create a “once in a lifetime” accumulator based on it. It is essential to conduct additional research using the team statistics, for example, and checking the current form, league, injuries, H2H, and so on. For instance, average stats of FH Over 0.5 goals can be 90%, but it could be that both sides have conceded in most of the games, and scored a few times only. It is advisable to avoid such games.

One thing that is recommended to use is the likelihood scanner on either the In-Play or Schedule page to filter the list of games by likelihood stats. This way, you can spot the potential value bets quickly.

Additionally, these stats can be used for creating custom notifications. Choose the Likelihood option from the Type dropdown, and then set the Event value, as well as any other values. Add more rules that are based on Odds and Stats to create powerful and instant in-play or pre-game alerts.

Read more about creating custom notifications here.

Related posts

  • Users’ feedback (2020)

    We have asked our users to write a couple of lines about BetBallers. Read below to find out why people appreciate our platform and why we are considered the best football statistics tool for in-play and pre-game betting. It will soon be a year since I use Betballers. since then, I realized that all the […]

  • Football statistics service tool

    Quick insight of our football statistics tool and its features (Part 2) (2019)

      Hi Guys, some time has passed now since we last presented on the power of BetBallers and all its features.  And, since we have evolved significantly since then, we think it is time again to take a look at the latest features and how they can be used best to your advantage.   Those of […]

  • In-Play & Schedule filters functionality

    In-Play/Schedule filters functionality (2019)

    We have designed a range of filters for any taste, from corner to over bettors. Use them to increase the chance of spotting value bets or just filter matches based on personal preferences to ease the in-play betting process. Read below about the filters that are on the site and get to know their functionality […]

Latest updates

  • February 2020

    We are great at two things – teasing women and pleasing ballers. Obviously, the latter one is what matters the most here. We have added a new section called “Dominance settings” on the Layout Settings tab; it means you can adjust the dominance formula yourself. Tighten or loosen the colour-coded stats to get the best […]

  • January 2020

    The first month of the year has been amazing for ballers! One of the most popular features is the long-awaited pressure index chart that is available on each match page. The pressure index is calculated using real-time stats like dangerous attacks, shots on/off target, corners and cards. Take a look at the Settings tab to […]

  • December 2019

    We have been working hard in December, just like Santa Claus’ little helpers. Thanks to the continuous developments on the notification system, we have launched the following updates:  Added the Min. Number of Previous Matches event under the Likelihood type on the custom notifications system. From now on, it’s possible for likelihood/averages notifications to specify the number […]

Follow us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter

BetBallers Recommends

TipIt logo

A User-friendly Tipping Platform

The Tipit platform is made for tipsters to increase the quality of their tipping service and to ensure a more satisfying betting experience for their followers. Sharing and following tips has never been easier.

Take a look now