In-Play Notifications Backtesting System
Detailed football statistics for betting have come a long way since the early days. Statistics platforms have become a lot more comprehensive by providing not only statistical numbers, but also great insight and a wide range of tools for successful betting. We all know just how powerful BetBallers can be and how many endless possibilities exist in terms of finding a suitable bet. One of the most exciting ways to explore different in-play betting/trading strategies has been the opportunity to build custom notifications by using a combination of stats of real-time, likelihood, averages, and odds.
Notifications reduce the risk of missing a potential bet during busy times or while you are not able to be behind the PC. The automated process is scanning all the games on in-play and searching for the ones that meet your criteria. Nothing is overlooked. The system tracks all notifications received, and the results are easily filterable by different options. Until now, the biggest bottleneck has been the time-consuming process of validating your combination of rules. In some cases, it has taken up to several months to gather enough data to understand whether the notification is profitable or not. We have admit that, nobody has so much time to wait. We really need quicker results, don’t we?
The good news is that we have developed a solution to ease the process of validating your in-play strategy models. The game-changing solution is called the Backtesting System. You can find the given feature on the Notifications tab, next to the Custom notifications tab.
The backtesting system works based on the custom notifications you have created. Therefore, you first need to create a notification and set rules, and only after that, can you navigate to the next tab and run a backtest. Every test analyses the last 100,000 finished games (it is approx. 5-6 months of games) in the database and simulates live scenarios based on your rules for each one of them. For the record, each game’s Likelihood stats are calculated retrospectively from that particular match. The list of matched games will be returned in mere minutes or even seconds; it depends on the complexity of rules of notification. We have excluded E-Soccer, Beach and all other shortened matches.
The filter above the results gives the ability to see the potential outcome of Asian handicap, goal line, Asian corner markets. Also, there are filters such as “Days”, “Goal in 2 minutes” and “Missing Dangerous Attacks”. Use the last two to exclude games with incomplete statistics or where the goal was scored pretty much after the notification moment. By doing this, you can avoid games where odds varied due to a red card or penalty event.
In case of dissatisfactory results, head back to the notification view, tweak your rules, and run the backtest again. Bear in mind that fine-tuning and finding the right combination might take some time, otherwise everybody would do it, wouldn’t they? It is always advisable to mix a variety of stats and use different likelihood stats with live ones. The live stats help to avoid games where the real-time stats are not backed up with a history of previous performances.
If you have not experimented with notifications before and looking for something to start with you are in the right place. Here is an example of an underdog, who is playing at home, losing by 1 goal, but has double or more pressure index stats (66% or more stats of dangerous attacks, total shots, corners combined), the current Asian Handicap line +0.5 and 1×2 kick-off odds were less than 5.
|Stats||Goals difference||Away||Equal to||1||Sum|
|Stats||Pressure Index (Last 20)||Home||More than equal to||66||%|
|Odds (Kick-off)||1×2||Home||Less than equal to||5||–|
|Odds (Last)||Asian Handicap||Home||Equal to||0.5 (Min.odds 1.8)||–|
The current result: win rate 71% (52 wins, 21 losses)
The given feature is available to all users with an active Gold-Ballers subscription (incl. 1, 3 or 6 months), not including the 2-day Gold-Baller subscription. Don’t wait any longer, subscribe now to level up your betting experience and profit! Because you know, BetBallers is the Swiss Army Knife of statistics tools for football betting.
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