| 23-07-2026 15:00 |
Töölön Taisto |
- |
TiPS Vantaa |
Over 4.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total (2.10+3.00)/2 + (2.30+2.70)/2 = 5.05 goals exceeds the 4.5 line by 0.55. Away team conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches (80%) and their GL_5 variance is 2.60 (severe mispricing, accelerating from GL_10 2.05). Away full-time history shows 80% of matches went Over 4.5. Home also contributed 60% Over. Combined with structural away defensive fragility, this strongly supports an Over bet. |
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| 23-07-2026 15:00 |
Termez Surkhon |
- |
Dinamo Samarqand |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total (3.35) well above line (2.5) via (A=1.50, B=2.00, C=1.80, D=1.40) = 1.75+1.60. Dinamo Samarqand away matches are 5/5 Over 2.5 in their last 5 away games, and they have conceded 2+ in 4 of those 5 (80% defensive fragility). Home match history is weaker (33%) but away team's perfect record and structural edge create strong value. Market pricing error is moderate (home GL_5 1.45, away 1.30) but direction aligns with Over. |
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| 23-07-2026 16:00 |
FC Kiisto |
- |
FC Ylivieska |
Over 2.0 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st-half goals = 2.45 (home 1.30 at home, away concede 1.20 away) above the 2.0 line. Home team's last 8 matches have 87.5% (7/8) with over 2.0 first-half goals, away 70% (7/10). H2H match ended 2-0 at half. Home goal line variance is severe (GL_5=2.55), indicating market mispricing, and away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in all 4 recent away matches) further supports over. |
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| 23-07-2026 16:00 |
KPV Akatemia |
- |
VPV Pallo-Veikot |
Over 1.75 Goals (1st Half) |
77% |
Expected 1st half goals of 2.20 (home scores 1.10, concedes 1.30; away scores 1.10, concedes 0.90) exceed the 1.75 line by 0.45 goals. Home team KPV has seen over 1.5 HT goals in all 3 home matches (100%), and away VPV in 2 of 3 away matches (66.7%). Likelihood data gives a 75% chance of over 1.5 HT goals. Home GL_5 mispricing of 2.75 (severe) adds further edge, though primarily for FT. Structural signals: home concedes 3.6 avg at home, and away scores consistently, supporting an open first half. |
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| 23-07-2026 16:00 |
Atlantis FC/Pm |
- |
FC Kontu |
Over 4.5,5.0 Goals |
81% |
Expected total goals 5.20 (home avg 3.00 + away avg 1.70, each adjusted with defensive averages) well above line 4.75. Home team has 2/3 home matches over, away team 3/5 away matches over, and H2H produced 7 goals. Away team conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches, and GL_5 of 2.35 indicates bookmaker consistently underestimating goals involving FC Kontu. Strong structural and mispricing support for an Over outcome. |
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| 23-07-2026 16:00 |
Saku Sporting Women |
- |
Harju JK Laagri Women |
Over 4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.79 (home avg 1.90 + away conceded 3.00 = 2.45, away avg 2.17 + home conceded 2.50 = 2.335) exceeds line 4.0 by 0.79. Home team has 80% of last 5 home matches over 4.0 (4/5). Match potential from shots estimates 7.93 goals. Bookmaker mispricing: away GL_5 2.20 (strong), home GL_5 1.70 (moderate), both align with over. H2H single match (3 goals) neutral. |
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| 23-07-2026 16:15 |
TiPS U21 |
- |
Atlantis II |
Over 3.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 4.31 calculated from home avg 1.13 at home, away concede 3.60 away, away avg 1.50 away, home concede 2.38 at home exceeds line of 3.75. Atlantis II has 62.5% of recent matches Over 3.5 (5/8), and common opponents average 3.9 goals. Structural quality gap (away 5th vs home 11th) supports goals. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (away GL_5=1.35), not strong enough for adjustment. Confidence at 78%. |
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| 23-07-2026 17:00 |
Tromso |
- |
Hradec Kralove |
Over 2.25 Goals |
82% |
Tromso's expected total of 2.95 goals (home avg 1.60 + away conceded 1.20 averaged with away scored 1.70 + home conceded 1.40) is well above the 2.25 line, supported by 80% of Tromso's home matches and 60% of Hradec's away matches exceeding an effective 2.25 goal line. Additionally, Tromso's goal line variance of 1.85 over the last 5 games indicates persistent bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction, adding to confidence. |
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| 23-07-2026 17:00 |
Deportivo Maldonado Reserves |
- |
Club Oriental Reserves |
Over 1.0 1st Half Goals |
78% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.40 (home 1.0 at home + away concede 0.7 away), well above the 1.0 line. Home has 70% and away 80% of recent matches going over 1.0 HT. Home scores 57% of goals in the first 30 minutes, and the quality gap (6th vs 17th) supports early pressure. Bookmaker mispricing on full-time goals (home GL_5=1.70) adds a slight edge. |
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| 23-07-2026 17:15 |
HooGee |
- |
Poxyt |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
Expected 1st half total (A_ht=0.70, B_ht=1.10, C_ht=0.80, D_ht=1.10→1.85) exceeds the 1.75 mid-line. Poxyt's last 4 away matches all had 2+ 1st half goals (6,2,3,2). Market mispricing is high (Poxyt GL_5=2.30, accelerating), suggesting the line is too low. |
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| 23-07-2026 18:30 |
Deportivo Capiata |
- |
Sportivo Iteno |
Away +1.25 Asian Handicap (Sportivo Iteno +1.25) |
65% |
Deportivo Capiata covered -1.25 only 1 of last 5 home matches (20%), while Sportivo Iteno covered +1.25 in all 4 recent away matches (100%). Despite the quality gap (Capiata 7th in Division Intermedia vs Iteno from Tercera), Iteno's resilience against stronger opposition gives them a strong structural edge. No H2H data, but home's poor handicap record and away's perfect recent coverage support this value bet at 1.80 odds. |
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| 23-07-2026 19:15 |
Leiknir Reykjavik |
- |
Throttur Reykjavik |
Under 3.0,3.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total of 3.00 goals (home avg 1.60, away avg 1.80, home concede 1.40, away concede 1.20) is below the effective line of 3.25. Home (70%) and away (60%) recent matches have trended under 3.5 goals. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate (home GL_5 1.70, away GL_5 1.60) and aligns with the under direction, strengthening the case despite the over-first philosophy. |
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| 23-07-2026 19:15 |
Selfoss Women |
- |
Keflavik Women |
Over 3.25 Goals |
77% |
Expected total goals 4.15 (home avg 1.70 scored, 3.30 conceded; away avg 1.50 scored, 1.80 conceded) exceeds line of 3.25. Selfoss recent matches have 60% over 3.25 (6/10), and Keflavik's GL_5 variance of 2.15 indicates consistent bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. Gap of 0.9 goals from line supports strong Over edge. |
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| 23-07-2026 23:00 |
Mahaut Soca Strikers |
- |
Portsmouth Bombers |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 5.00 goals from averages (home 2.70 scored, away 3.40 conceded; away 2.30 scored, home 1.60 conceded) vs line 3.5, a gap of 1.5 goals. Home team Mahaut Soca Strikers has 60% Over last 10 (including 4-2, 4-0, 3-2, 3-1), away team Portsmouth Bombers has 50% Over but shows severe defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 4 away, avg conceded 3.4). Bookmaker mispricing is strong: home GL_5 2.00, away GL_5 2.35, both well above 1.8, indicating the line is consistently set too low. Likelihood 80% for Over 3.5. This combination makes Over 3.5 the highest-confidence bet. |
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