| 30-04-2026 08:30 |
Delhi FC XI |
- |
CISF |
Under 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals (2.40) calculated as (1.80+0.70)/2 + (1.10+1.20)/2 = 1.25 + 1.15, well below the 3.0 line. CISF's last 3 away matches all went under 3.0 (2,2,1 total goals). H2H decisive matches favor under 3.0 at 67% (2 of 3). Away side has kept clean sheets in 2 of last 3 away games. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate-to-strong (Delhi FC XI GL_5=1.50, CISF GL_5=1.70, both accelerating), indicating the line is often set too high for this matchup. |
|
| 30-04-2026 09:30 |
East Bengal FC Women |
- |
Sethu FC Women |
East Bengal -1.5 Asian Handicap |
70% |
East Bengal FC Women have covered -1.5 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70%), including dominant wins against common opponents (Kickstart 5-0, Gokulam 3-0). Their home average of 3.10 goals scored per game and Sethu's away average of 1.40 conceded support this. The only H2H was a 1-0 East Bengal win, failing to cover, but that's a single data point. With a strong form surge and structural quality gap, AH -1.5 offers value. |
|
| 30-04-2026 09:30 |
Sribhumi FC Women |
- |
Garhwal United Women |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total calculated as (Sribhumi home HT avg scored 0.80 + conceded 0.60 + Garhwal away HT avg scored 0.00 + conceded 0.50)/2 = 0.95 goals, well below the 1.25 line by 0.30. Garhwal have failed to score in the first half in all 4 away matches (100% Under), and Sribhumi have seen Under 1.25 in 2 of 3 home HT fixtures (67%). The lone H2H had a 0-0 HT. Structural signals: Garhwal's away HT scoring drought (0 goals in 4) and both teams' low HT output strongly support an Under outcome. Market pricing error is mild (GL_5 home 1.30, away 1.10), not a primary driver. Confidence capped at 82% (standard ceiling). |
|
| 30-04-2026 10:00 |
Wisla Plock II |
- |
Widzew Lodz II |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.65 (home 0.50 HT + away concede 0.60, away 1.40 HT + home concede 0.80 /2) vs line 1.25 — a 0.40 gap. Away team's last 5 away matches saw 80% Over 1.25 HT, and home team's last 5 home matches 60% Over. Both teams show mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5: home 1.00, away 1.05), supporting Over. |
|
| 30-04-2026 10:00 |
Hadiya Hossana |
- |
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected total goals (2.00) from Hadiya's home average (0.90) and Mekelle's away average (1.00) vs conceded rates (1.00 and 1.10) exceeds the 1.75 line by 0.25. Hadiya's last 5 home matches (80% Over) and Mekelle's last 5 away (60% Over) both support Over, with both H2H matches totaling 2+ goals. Away team's GL_5 of 1.55 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing aligning with Over direction. |
|
| 30-04-2026 10:00 |
Ethio Electric FC Women |
- |
Yirga Chefe Bunna Women |
Over 1.25 Goals 1st Half |
60% |
Ethio Electric Women average 1.10 goals in the 1st half at home, while Yirga Chefe concede 1.20 away in the 1st half — expected total 1.40, above the line of 1.25. Despite recent 1st half history showing only 40% (2/5) home and 25% (1/4) away matches over 1.5, the away team's severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 = 2.00) on goal lines aligns with the Over direction. The quality gap and early scoring patterns further support an Over bet in the first half. |
|
| 30-04-2026 11:30 |
Albirex Niigata Singapore |
- |
Tampines Rovers FC |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 2.15 (home 1.30 + away 0.90 averaged), well above the 1.25 line. Albirex recorded 60% (6/10) and Tampines 70% (7/10) of first halves going over in their recent matches. Tampines has strong bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=2.30, accelerating), indicating goals are consistently underestimated in their games. |
|
| 30-04-2026 12:00 |
Bhayangkara FC |
- |
Persib Bandung |
Over 2.5 Goals |
76% |
Bhayangkara average 2.20 goals at home vs Persib conceding 0.80 away gives expected total 3.05, well above the 2.5 line. Bhayangkara have gone Over 2.5 in 9 of their last 10 matches (90%), and Persib's away matches are mixed but home momentum is strong with 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home games. The only H2H was a 2-0 Persib win, but with only one match it's neutral. Market pricing error is mild (home GL_5 1.00, away 1.15), supporting no significant mispricing, but the structural form surge adds confidence at 76%. |
|
| 30-04-2026 12:00 |
Negelle Arsi |
- |
Fasil Kenema |
Asian Handicap Fasil Kenema 0 |
67% |
Fasil Kenema has covered the 0 handicap in all 5 recent away matches (3 wins, 2 draws), while Negelle Arsi has covered only 1 of 5 at home. Common opponents (Ethiopian Insurance, Kedus Giorgis) also support Fasil Kenema covering. Standings gap (home 3rd vs away 6th) is marginal and negative for the away pick, but the away team's dominant recent form and defensive solidity (4 clean sheets in last 5 away) provide a strong structural edge. |
|
| 30-04-2026 13:00 |
Mbeya City |
- |
Mashujaa FC |
Over 2.0 Goals |
66% |
Expected total 2.30 (home avg 0.90 at home, away conceded 1.30 away; away avg 0.50 away, home conceded 1.90 at home) exceeds line 2.0 by 0.30. Mbeya City home history shows 3/5 over (60%), and severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=2.55) for the home team signals consistent undervaluation of goals. H2H limited to one under game, but small sample. Under lacks structural support. |
|
| 30-04-2026 13:00 |
Kitara FC |
- |
SC Villa |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
71% |
Kitara FC's home 1st half record (80% over in last 5 home matches) and SC Villa's away 1st half record (75% over in recent away matches) both support Over. Expected 1st half total of 0.95 goals exceeds the 0.75 line by 0.20 goals, with Kitara in strong home form (scored 2+ in each of last 3 home games) and both top-4 teams motivated to attack. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate (kitara GL_5 1.45) but not crucial for this pick. |
|
| 30-04-2026 13:00 |
Arba Minch |
- |
Ethiopia Nigd Bank |
Over 1.5, 2.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected total 2.55 (home 1.20 scored, 1.30 conceded; away 1.20 scored, 1.40 conceded) well above 1.75 line. Home 9/10, away 8/10 recent matches over; H2H 3/3 over. Away GL_5 1.70 (moderate, accelerating) adds bookmaker mispricing edge for Over. Structural signals: Arba Minch's weak defence (conceded 1.30 avg) and ENB's away scoring consistency support goals. |
|
| 30-04-2026 13:00 |
Real Kashmir FC |
- |
Gokulam Kerala FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals calculated as (1.80+1.90)/2 + (1.50+1.50)/2 = 3.35, well above the 2.75 line. Real Kashmir's recent home matches show 60% Over (3/5), and Gokulam's away matches show 50% Over (2/4). Structural edge: Gokulam concedes 5.1 shots on target away per game and their goal line variance (GL_5=3.05) indicates severe bookmaker mispricing, accelerating over the last 10 games. |
|
| 30-04-2026 13:00 |
Adana 01 |
- |
Elazigspor |
Over 2.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.05 (home avg 1.60 at home, away avg 2.70 away) vs line 2.25 yields gap +0.8. Away team Elazigspor has 70% of their last 10 matches over 2.5 goals, including 80% in last 5 away. H2H match ended 4-0 (over). Market mispricing is high for Elazigspor (GL_5=1.95, accelerating), adding edge to over. Play-off stakes suggest open game. |
|
| 30-04-2026 14:00 |
Puskas Academy II |
- |
Papai Perutz |
Over 3.5 Goals |
70% |
Expected total goals 4.10 (home avg 1.60 + away conceded 3.40 /2 plus away scored 1.70 + home conceded 1.50 /2) exceeds the split line of 3.75. Away team has conceded 2+ in all 4 recent away matches (8,6,2,2) confirming severe defensive fragility, and their GL_5 variance of 2.85 signals major bookmaker mispricing. Despite home team's low-scoring home form (1/5 over), the quality gap (4th vs 14th) and robust away defensive weakness strongly support an Over outcome. |
|
| 30-04-2026 14:00 |
FK Aktobe |
- |
FC Elimai Semey |
Over 2.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.25 goals (Aktobe home avg 1.40+Elimai away conceded 1.30=2.70/2=1.35; Elimai away avg 2.30+Aktobe home conceded 1.50=3.80/2=1.90; total 3.25) exceeds line 2.25 by 1.0. Away team 60% Over in last 5, H2H 75% Over (3 of 4), and away defensive fragility (3 of 5 away conceded 2+ goals). Market pricing error for away team (GL_5=1.65) adds moderate edge. Confidence capped at 82% due to home history only 20% Over. |
|
| 30-04-2026 14:00 |
Aliaga Futbol AS |
- |
Mus Spor FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.50 (home avg 1.50 scored at home, away avg 1.80 conceded away, away avg 1.30 scored away, home avg 2.40 conceded at home) exceeds line of 2.5 by 1.0 goals. Home team Aliaga has 4 of 6 home matches Over 2.5 (67%), and away team Mus conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches. Home team's goal line mispricing (GL5=1.75) adds confidence. H2H empty, no veto. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:00 |
Warta Sieradz |
- |
Jagiellonia Bialystok II |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
66% |
Expected 1st half total 1.60 goals (home HT scored 1.00 + away HT conceded 0.70)/2 = 0.85 plus (away HT scored 0.50 + home HT conceded 1.00)/2 = 0.75, total 1.60) exceeds the 1.25 line by 0.35. Home team has gone Over in 7 of their last 10 home HT matches (70%) and scored in HT in 4 of 5 home games. Despite away team's weak HT scoring (1 of 5 away HTs with a goal), home's attacking consistency and the gap from the line provide value at 2.00 odds. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:00 |
ND Dravinja |
- |
NK Krka |
Dravinja -0.25 Asian Handicap |
68% |
Dravinja's last 5 AH record is a perfect 5-0, while Krka's is 3-1-1. Both teams are bottom-half with a one-point gap (Dravinja 11th, Krka 13th). The only H2H was a 2-2 draw at Krka, neutral. Dravinja at home (-0.25) with strong recent handicap form offers value. Market pricing error shows moderate mispricing on Krka's side (GL_5 1.70), but direction aligns with Dravinja covering, adding partial edge. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:00 |
Ordabasy |
- |
FK Kaspyi Aktau |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected total 2.55 goals is 0.20 below the 2.75 line, but structural signals strongly support Over: Ordabasy averages 2.10 goals at home, Kaspyi concedes 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches, and H2H shows 75% Over (3 of 4). Despite neutral match history (50% home Over, 40% away Over), the quality gap (2nd vs 16th) and away defensive fragility override the slight expected shortfall. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (away GL_5 1.25) but direction is opposite, so no confidence adjustment. Overall confidence 65% meets the minimum threshold. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:00 |
Ethiopian Coffee |
- |
Welwalo Adigrat |
Over 0.5,1.0 Goals 1st Half |
81% |
Expected 1st half total 1.00 goals (home avg HT 0.80 + away conceded HT 0.60 combined with away avg HT 0.30 + home conceded HT 0.30) exceeds the 0.75 line. Home team scored in all 3 recent home 1st halves (100% Over), while Welwalo Adigrat's away HT matches average 1.0 goals in last 4 (50% Over). Early scoring pattern and quality gap (7th vs 17th) further support Over. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.30 for both) but direction aligns. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:00 |
Olympique Dcheira |
- |
Union de Touarga |
Asian Handicap Home +0.25 |
66% |
Olympique Dcheira (11th, 16 pts) host bottom-side Union de Touarga (15th, 10 pts) with a 6-point standings gap. Home undefeated in H2H (W1 D2) and have a stronger recent AH record (3/5 covers last 5, 60%) compared to away (0 wins in last 5 AH). This supports home on +0.25, effectively a double chance bet. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:00 |
C. Moulaye M'Barek |
- |
Olympique de Sebkha |
Over 2.5 Goals |
67% |
Expected total goals (2.35) exceeds the 2.0 line, calculated from home averages (1.10 scored, 1.70 conceded at home) and away averages (1.40 scored, 0.50 conceded away). The home team has gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%), and the away team scores consistently away (4 of last 5 away with goals). Bookmaker mispricing is moderate for the home team (GL_5 1.65, accelerating), supporting the Over side. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:30 |
Lech Poznan II |
- |
Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal |
Under 3.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected total of 2.90 goals (calculated as (1.20+2.90)/2 + (0.60+1.10)/2) is well below the 3.5 line. Home team has 70% of recent matches under 3.5, and both H2H matches (2-0, 1-0) stayed under. Away side's goal line variance of 2.35 (GL_5) indicates the bookmaker consistently overestimates goals in their matches, further supporting the Under. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:30 |
JKT Tanzania |
- |
KMC FC |
1st Half Over 0.5,1.0 Goals |
68% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.95 (home avg 0.30 + away conceded 0.90 averaged = 0.60, plus away avg 0.40 + home conceded 0.30 averaged = 0.35). JKT home 1st half over 0.75 in 3/4 league matches (75%), KMC away over in 3/5 (60%). Structural edge: JKT (5th, 29 pts) hosts KMC (16th, 9 pts) with dominant home form vs KMC's winless away record (0W1D9L), likely early pressure. No H2H HT data to contradict. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:30 |
NK Krsko |
- |
ND Slovan Ljubljana |
Over 2.75 Goals |
66% |
Expected total of 2.80 goals slightly exceeds the 2.75 line, while ND Slovan Ljubljana's away matches have gone over in 3 of the last 4 (75%) and they have conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. NK Krsko's home record is weaker (50% Over) but the structural over signal from Slovan's leaky defence supports the Over. Bookmaker mispricing is minimal (GL_5 1.10/0.80), so this is a moderate edge play. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:45 |
Hapoel Raanana |
- |
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa |
Under 1.0 Goals 1st Half |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.80 (home 0.30 HT scored + away 0.30 HT conceded averaged with away 0.60 HT scored + home 0.40 HT conceded), well below the 1.0 line. Hapoel Raanana failed to score in the 1st half in 4 of their last 5 home matches, and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa have only a 20% Over 1.0 HT rate in their last 5 away games. The most recent H2H also finished 0-0 at half-time, reinforcing the low-scoring pattern. |
|
| 30-04-2026 15:45 |
Hapoel Kfar Shalem |
- |
Hapoel Kfar Saba |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.45 goals computed from home avg 2.10 at home and away avg 1.70 away (avg conceded 1.40 and 1.70 respectively) well above line 3.0. Home history 4/5 (80%) Over last 5 home matches, H2H 3/4 (75%) Over, and home GL_5 1.70 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing supporting Over. Away record not strongly contradicting (2 Over, 2 push, 1 Under last 5 away). Over 3.0 bet selected based on strong expected total, home trend, and market edge. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:00 |
Al Mesaimeer SC |
- |
Al-Mu'aidar |
Al-Mu'aidar +0.25 (Asian Handicap) |
78% |
Al-Mu'aidar covers the +0.25 line in 8 of their last 10 matches (80% recent form), with 3 of 4 H2H meetings covering (75%). They sit 4th in the standings (18 pts) vs Al Mesaimeer's 5th (17 pts), and their away record (3rd in away table) is superior to Al Mesaimeer's poor away form. No goal line bet qualified due to contradictory match history, making this the strongest available edge. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:00 |
Lusail |
- |
Al Bidda SC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
67% |
Expected total 2.95 goals (Lusail home avg 1.80, Al Bidda away concede 2.00) exceeds line 2.5. Al Bidda have gone Over 2.5 in 5 of 7 away matches (71.4%) and conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away. Lusail's home matches are 60% Over. H2H is 75% Under but structural quality gap (#1 vs #8) and away defensive fragility override it. Market pricing error is mild (GL_5 home 1.20, away 1.30). Confidence 67% after H2H penalty. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:00 |
Al Kharaitiyat SC |
- |
Al Waab FC |
Over 1.0 1st Half Goals |
73% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.20 goals (home avg 0.50+away conceded 0.40)/2 + (away avg 0.80+home conceded 0.70)/2, above the 1.0 line. Home has 70% of last 10 1st halves over 1.0, away 87.5%, both showing strong early scoring trends. The quality gap (2nd vs 7th) adds pressure, and H2H is neutral, supporting the Over. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:00 |
Al Okhdood |
- |
Al Ittifaq Dammam |
Over 2.5 Goals |
67% |
Expected total goals calculated at 3.20 (home avg 0.90 + away conceded 2.00 averaged with away avg 1.30 + home conceded 2.20) exceeds the 2.75 line. Al Ittifaq conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches, and their GL_5 of 1.85 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. Al Okhdood home matches show 60% Over rate, supporting the pick. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:00 |
FC Voluntari |
- |
FC Bihor Oradea |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals 3.20 (home avg 2.20 + away conceded 1.90 averaged, away avg 1.50 + home conceded 0.80 averaged). Home at home 60% Over 2.5, away away 100% Over 2.5 in last 5. H2H 33% Over but away defensive fragility (3/5 conceded 2+) and high GL_5 variance (home 1.50, away 1.65, both accelerating) signal bookmaker mispricing towards Over. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:00 |
Neftchi Baku |
- |
FK Qarabag |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 3.70 (Neftchi home avg 2.20, Qarabag concede away 1.00; Qarabag away avg 2.90, Neftchi concede home 1.30) well above 2.5 line. Neftchi's home matches hit Over in 3/5 (60%), Qarabag away in 2/4 (50%). H2H has 2/4 Over but recent 1-5 clash signals goals. Strong bookmaker mispricing (GL_5: home 1.85, away 2.55) confirms the line is too low for this quality matchup. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:00 |
Al Hussein SC |
- |
Al-Jazeera |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
71% |
Al Hussein SC averages 1.40 1st half goals at home while conceding only 0.40; Al-Jazeera averages 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded away in 1st half. Expected 1st half total = (1.40+1.20)/2 + (0.40+0.40)/2 = 1.70, well above the 1.25 line. Al Hussein's last 10 matches show 70% (7/10) with >1.25 1st half goals. The quality gap (1st vs 6th) and H2H dominance (0-6, 4-0, 2-1 wins) support early pressure. Away team's 1st half GL_5 of 1.30 indicates mild bookmaker mispricing toward more goals. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:00 |
Al Okhdood |
- |
Al Ittifaq Dammam |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
68% |
Expected FT goals 3.20 (home avg 0.90 + away conceded 2.00 /2 = 1.45; away scored 1.30 + home conceded 2.20 /2 = 1.75) exceed the 2.75 line by 0.45. Away team's GL_5 mispricing of 1.85 (accelerating) indicates the bookmaker consistently underestimates goals in their games. Away defensive fragility confirmed: 3 of last 5 away matches conceded 2+ goals. Home defense weak (conceding 2.20 avg at home). Despite mixed match history (home 20% Over, away 40% Over), structural factors and mispricing support Over. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:20 |
Al Shabab Seeb |
- |
Saham |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Al Shabab Seeb averages 2.80 goals at home while Saham concedes 1.70 away, yielding an expected total of 3.35 — 0.60 above the 2.75 line. The home team has gone Over in 9 of its last 10 matches (90%) and all 4 H2H meetings exceeded 2.5 total goals. Market mispricing is severe: home GL_5 of 2.90 indicates the bookmaker consistently underestimates goals in Al Shabab matches, adding +8% confidence. Despite Saham's low away scoring, the structural quality gap (3rd vs 10th) and home attacking dominance push confidence to 82%. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:30 |
Bombada FC |
- |
Hart Academy FC |
Over 1.5/2.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.60 (Bombada avg 1.30 home, Hart away avg 1.60 + conceded) well above line 1.75. Bombada Over 70% (7/10), Hart Over 90% (9/10) in recent matches. H2H underwhelming (1-0,1-0,1-1) but not veto. Market mispricing accelerating: Hart GL_5 1.95 (strong), Bombada GL_5 1.55 (moderate), both direction-aligned with Over, adding significant edge. |
|
| 30-04-2026 16:30 |
Greater Tomorrow FC |
- |
Gambian Dutch Lions |
Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half |
70% |
Expected 1st half total (1.10) significantly exceeds the line (0.75) by 0.35 goals. Greater Tomorrow concede 1.00 goals on average at home in the 1st half and have gone over 0.75 in 5 of their last 6 home first halves (83%), while Gambian Dutch Lions' 1st half away form is mixed. The home side's defensive fragility in the opening period provides a strong structural case for Over, with mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 = 1.35 for both) adding slight edge. |
|
| 30-04-2026 17:00 |
FC Gleisdorf 09 |
- |
WAC St Andra II |
Over 3.0 Goals |
73% |
Expected total goals of 3.20 (home avg 1.80 scored, 1.70 conceded at home; away avg 0.90 scored, 2.00 conceded away) exceeds the 3.0 line. H2H record is 75% Over (3 of 4 meetings). Both teams show moderate recent bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 1.65, away GL_5 1.60), indicating the line may be set too low, and the Over 2.5 likelihood is 55%. |
|
| 30-04-2026 17:00 |
SV Schwechat |
- |
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf |
Over 3.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 3.55 (home avg 1.40 scored + away avg 1.80 conceded = 3.20/2 = 1.60; away avg 1.30 scored + home avg 2.60 conceded = 3.90/2 = 1.95) exceeds line 3.0 by 0.55 goals. Home team's last 7 valid matches saw 71% over 3.0 (5 of 7). H2H last 4 matches: 5, 3, 3, 6 goals (2 overs, 2 pushes, 0 unders). Home GL_5 of 1.60 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing in same direction. Away team's recent away form (50% over) does not contradict. Confidence composite: base 50% + gap 10% + home history 8% + H2H 5% + variance 5% = 78%. |
|
| 30-04-2026 17:00 |
Jedinstvo UB |
- |
Crvena Zvezda |
Under 4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 2.90 goals (home avg 1.40 + away conceded 0.70 → 1.05, away avg 2.60 + home conceded 1.10 → 1.85) is well below the 4.0 line. Jedinstvo UB have gone Under in 9 of their last 10 matches (90%), and Crvena Zvezda have gone Under in 8 of 10 (80%). H2H totals were exactly 4 in both meetings (push, not contradictory). The massive quality gap is offset by Zvezda's tendency to win by 2-3 goals, rarely covering the 4-goal line. Bookmaker mispricing is low (GL_5 home 1.30, away 0.70), confirming the market is well-calibrated. Confidence capped at 82% per standard ceiling. |
|
| 30-04-2026 17:00 |
FAR Rabat |
- |
Raja Casablanca |
Under 2.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected total goals 2.05 (FAR home avg 1.20, Raja away conceded 0.50; Raja away avg 1.60, FAR home conceded 0.80) is just above the 2.0 line, but match history strongly favors Under: FAR's last 4 home matches went Under in 75% (3 of 4), and Raja's last 4 away matches all went Under (100%). H2H: all 4 recent meetings had ≤2 goals. Bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.35 home, 0.90 away) is mild and does not support Over. Structural signals (defensive solidity, low-scoring trend) confirm the Under bias. |
|
| 30-04-2026 17:00 |
Sanliurfaspor |
- |
Muglaspor |
Over 2.25 Goals FT |
66% |
Expected total 2.35 (Sanliurfaspor home avg 1.50 & conceded 1.30, Muglaspor away avg 1.00 & conceded 0.90) exceeds the 2.25 line. Sanliurfaspor's last 10 home matches saw 70% with 3+ goals, while Muglaspor's away history is 50% Over but not actively contradicting. The only H2H was a 0-0 draw, but with only one match it is neutral. Play-off context suggests open attacking play, and bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5=1.05 for both) adding slight edge to the Over. |
|
| 30-04-2026 17:00 |
FC Oasis |
- |
FC Amitie 2020 |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.15 (home avg 1.30 + away conceded away 1.40 averaged with away scored away 1.90 + home conceded home 1.70) exceeds line 2.5 by 0.65 goals. Home team's last 5 home matches: 80% Over 2.5 (4/5). Away team's last 5 away matches: 60% Over 2.5 (3/5). Bookmaker mispricing is moderate for home side (GL_5 = 1.70), adding edge to Over. H2H neutral (1 match). Over 2.5 strongly supported. |
|
| 30-04-2026 17:30 |
SV Gloggnitz |
- |
SV Leobendorf |
Home -0.75 Asian Handicap |
73% |
SV Gloggnitz (1st, 55 pts) hosts SV Leobendorf (2nd, 51 pts) in a tight title race. Gloggnitz has won all 5 of their last 5 Asian Handicap bets, covering -0.75 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70% cover rate). Leobendorf has lost 3 of their last 5 AH bets, and their recent away form is poor (3 losses in last 5 away). The standings gap and home dominance support a home cover at -0.75. |
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| 30-04-2026 17:30 |
07 Vestur |
- |
NSI Runavik |
07 Vestur +2 (Asian Handicap) |
68% |
NSI Runavik have lost all 5 away Asian Handicap bets this season, while 07 Vestur have covered the +2 line in 2 of their last 3 home matches. Common opponent Skala supports this: 07 Vestur covered +2 at home (1-0), but Runavik failed to cover -2 away (3-3 draw). The standings gap is large, but Runavik's poor away AH record makes the home team with a big start the value play. |
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| 30-04-2026 18:00 |
Al Kholood |
- |
Al Fayha |
Over 2.5 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 3.15 exceeds line 2.5 by 0.65 goals, supported by Al Kholood conceding 2.30/game at home and Al Fayha conceding 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches. Home team recent record shows 75% of home games over 2.5, away team 60%; H2H is mixed (1 of 3 over) but structural away defensive fragility outweighs. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.05/0.95), so no extra edge. |
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| 30-04-2026 18:00 |
Al Kholood |
- |
Al Fayha |
Over 2.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected total goals 3.15 (home avg 1.30, away conceded away 1.30; away avg 1.40, home conceded 2.30) exceeds the 2.5 line. Home match history: 3/4 (75%) Over in last 4 homes; away: 3/5 (60%) Over in last 5 aways. H2H is mixed (1/3 Over) but not a veto. Market pricing errors are low (home GL_5 1.05, away 0.95). Over is favored per philosophy and signals align moderately. |
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| 30-04-2026 18:30 |
Liverpool Montevideo Reserves |
- |
Club Oriental Reserves |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals (3.15) exceeds the line of 2.75, driven by Liverpool's home attacking average (1.70) and Oriental's away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away). Oriental's GL_5 of 1.65 indicates bookmaker mispricing on goals against them, and H2H supports Over with both previous meetings going Over. Market history shows 60% of Liverpool's recent home matches and 60% of Oriental's away matches have gone Over, while structural factors (quality gap and defensive weakness) reinforce the Over pick. |
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| 30-04-2026 19:00 |
Gzira United |
- |
Floriana |
Floriana -0.75 (Asian Handicap) |
72% |
Floriana (1st, 34 pts) faces Gzira United (5th, 21 pts) in the Closing Top 6. H2H: Floriana won 3 of last 4 meetings. Recent away form: 3 wins in last 5 (margins +2, +2, +1) covering -0.75 in 70% of matches. AH record last 5: 3 wins, 1 void, 1 loss (75% effective). Common opponents (Marsaxlokk, Valletta, Naxxar) all show superior Floriana margins. Standings gap and form strongly support the handicap cover. |
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| 30-04-2026 19:00 |
Braga |
- |
SC Freiburg |
Over 2.25 Goals (Full-Time) |
82% |
Expected total goals 3.00 (Braga home avg 1.60 + Freiburg away avg 1.90) well above the 2.25 line. Home history 60% Over, away history 80% Over, and both teams need points in a tight Europa League playoff race (Braga 6th, Freiburg 7th, tied on 17 points). Bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=1.75 for Braga) suggests the opening line underestimates goals in this matchup. |
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| 30-04-2026 19:00 |
Nottm Forest |
- |
Aston Villa |
Over 2.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 2.80 goals (home avg 1.90, away avg 1.90, home conceded 0.70, away conceded 1.10) above line 2.5. H2H 3/4 over (75%) supports. Home team's away record 80% Over but home record weak (20%); away team's away Over 40% but market mispricing is strong: away GL_5=1.90 (accelerating), home GL_5=1.50, both aligning Over, indicating bookmaker underestimation. Confidence 73% from base 50% + line gap +5% + H2H +5% + home GL_5 +5% + away GL_5 +8%. |
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| 30-04-2026 19:00 |
RSB Berkane |
- |
KACM Marrakesh |
Under 1.0 1st Half Goals |
78% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.50 goals (home 0.30 avg scored, 0.20 conceded; away 0.40 avg scored, 0.10 conceded), well below the 1.0 line. KACM Marrakesh have gone Under 1.0 in 7 of their last 10 away matches (70%), and both teams have failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 5 matches each. This provides two structural reasons for an Under bet, in line with the higher evidence bar required for Under selections. |
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| 30-04-2026 21:00 |
Once Caldas Women |
- |
Deportivo Pasto Women |
|
68% |
Away team Deportivo Pasto Women have a stronger record against common opponents: they drew with Junior (0-0) and Santa Fe (0-0) while home team lost both matches by multiple goals. In last 5 matches, away covered the handicap (draw or win) in 3 of 5 (60%) while home lost all 5. H2H ended 2-2, supporting away cover. Away averages 1.0 goals scored away, while home concedes 2.3 at home, making away likely to avoid defeat. |
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| 30-04-2026 22:00 |
Carabobo |
- |
Blooming |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 3.70 goals (home avg 2.30 + away conceded 1.70, away avg 2.00 + home conceded 1.40) far exceeds line 2.5. Carabobo home history 60% Over, Blooming away history 100% Over (5/5). Away defensive fragility confirmed: Blooming conceded 2+ in all 5 away matches. Home team severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=2.90) adds edge. No H2H to contradict. |
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| 30-04-2026 22:00 |
Bolivar |
- |
Fluminense |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.25 (Bolivar home avg 2.30 + Fluminense away conceded 1.20 averaged with Fluminense away avg 1.40 + Bolivar home conceded 1.60) exceeds line 2.75. Bolivar home history: 4/5 (80%) over 2.5 goals. Although Fluminense away history is 40% over, high altitude and both teams needing points (1 pt each in group) create an open game. Likelihood supports (65% Over 2.5). No strong H2H data. Confidence capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
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| 30-04-2026 22:00 |
Vasco da Gama |
- |
Olimpia Asuncion |
Under 4.0 1st Half Corners |
75% |
Expected 1st half corners is 4.05, barely above the 4.0 line, but history strongly supports Under: Vasco da Gama home matches have seen under 4 first-half corners in 4/5 (80%) and Olimpia Asuncion away matches have also seen under 4 in 4/5 (80%). This consistent low-corner pattern provides a structural edge for Under, outweighing the marginal expected total. No H2H data available to contradict. |
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| 30-04-2026 22:00 |
Independiente Rivadavia |
- |
Deportivo La Guaira |
Deportivo La Guaira +1.25 |
68% |
Deportivo La Guaira covered +1.25 in all 6 recent away matches (100%), including a draw at Bolivar. Independiente Rivadavia failed to cover -1.25 in 3 of 6 home matches (50%), and away team's strong Asian Handicap record (4-1 last 5) supports the underdog. Common opponent Bolivar also confirms the pattern. |
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| 30-04-2026 22:00 |
Deportiva Venados |
- |
Real Apodaca FC |
Over 1.0 1st Half Goals |
73% |
Expected first-half total is 1.75 goals (Home HT avg 0.80 + Away HT conceded 0.30)/2 + (Away HT avg 1.50 + Home HT conceded 0.90)/2, well above the 1.0 line. Real Apodaca away from home averages 1.50 goals in the first half and has gone over 1.0 in 3 of their last 5 away games (60%), while Deportiva Venados concedes an average 0.90 in the first half at home. The attacking profiles and match history support an over, with the bookmaker's line of 1.0 looking low. |
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| 30-04-2026 22:30 |
Marquense |
- |
Xelaju |
Over 2.25 Goals |
71% |
Expected total goals = (1.30+1.10)/2 + (1.80+1.20)/2 = 2.70, 0.45 above the 2.25 line. Marquense home Over rate 60% (3/5) and Xelaju away Over rate 75% (3/4) both support. H2H split 2-2 overall but 2-0 Under at venue (small sample), not enough to override. Mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.15, 1.40) doesn't alter direction. |
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| 01-05-2026 03:05 |
Jaiba Brava |
- |
Cancun FC |
Cancun FC +0.75 (Asian Handicap) |
70% |
Cancun FC (2nd in standings) has covered +0.75 in all 5 recent away matches, winning or drawing each time (1-1, 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-1). Against common opponent Tapatio, Cancun went unbeaten (1-0 home, 1-1 away, 2-1 away) while Jaiba Brava lost 3-1 away. Jaiba Brava's home wins are typically narrow (1-0, 2-0, 1-0), making them unlikely to cover a -0.75 handicap against a superior away side. Confidence 70%. |
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