| 06-11-2026 00:00 |
Jamaica Premier League |
Arnett Gardens |
- |
Mount Pleasant FA |
Arnett Gardens +0.5 Asian Handicap |
66% |
Arnett Gardens are unbeaten in home league play this season (2W-1D-0L, 8 goals for / 2 against) and have covered +0.5 in 6 of their last 8 matches (75%), while Mount Pleasant's away league record is only 2W-0D-1L with 4 scored and 5 conceded. Against venue-matched mutual opposition Arnett post a far stronger margin: 6W-2D-2L, 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (goals NET +1.6, with opponents needing 19.2 shots per goal conceded) versus Mount Pleasant's 5W-0D-3L, 1.38 scored and 0.88 conceded (NET +0.5), which is the decisive handicap signal at 1.85. Caveat acknowledged: all three H2H meetings finished under 2.75 goals (1-1, 1-0 Mount Pleasant, 0-1 Mount Pleasant) and two of three went against this line, but Arnett's home profile has materially changed this season (4-1 and 3-0 home wins in October versus a 1W-1D-8L home run through the prior sample). Market A was rejected: Over 2.75 is vetoed by 100% H2H Under (totals 2, 1, 1) despite expected goals of (1.90+0.90)/2 + (1.30+1.30)/2 = 2.70 sitting on the line, and Under fails the 70% history bar (home only 3 of 8 under 2.5). Market C was rejected: expected corners (4.40+4.50)/2 + (4.30+5.30)/2 = 9.25 does not clear the 9.5 line, and the Under is vetoed by 3/3 H2H over (12, 11, 10). |
|
| 06-11-2026 01:00 |
Mexico Liga de Expansion |
Cancun FC |
- |
Piratas |
Over 2.5 Goals |
66% |
Expected total = (home scored 2.30 + away conceded 1.00)/2 + (away scored 1.89 + home conceded 1.00)/2 = 1.65 + 1.445 = 3.10 goals, comfortably above the 2.0/2.5 line. Piratas' away games are high-scoring — averaging 3.7 total goals across their last 10 away matches with 80% going over 2.5 (recent 5-0, 2-4, 0-3), while Cancun score 2.3/game at home with recent 2-0, 3-0 and 6-0 wins; the mutual-opponent goal total of 2.61 and the 60% Over-2.5 likelihood reading both point the same way. H2H is empty (neutral), and Piratas carry a moderate bookmaker pricing error (GL_5 1.75, accelerating), which supports the Over, though Cancun's recent home clean-sheet trend and the line's drop from 2.75 to 2.25 keep confidence moderate rather than high. |
|
| 06-11-2026 01:30 |
Honduras Liga Nacional |
CD Marathon |
- |
CD Platense |
Over 1.0/1.5 1st Half Goals |
72% |
1st-half expected goals = (0.90+1.50)/2 + (0.50+0.90)/2 = 1.90 against a 1.0/1.5 split line (1.25 effective) — a 0.65-goal gap, far bigger than the full-time gap of 3.10 vs 2.75/3.0 (0.35). Both teams' last 10 matches produced 2+ first-half goals in 7 of 10 (70%), and CD Platense conceded 2+ first-half goals in 5 of their 6 away games (Olancho 3, Real Espana 3, Olimpia 2, Choloma 2, Genesis 2) while losing all 10 away matches (6 scored, 28 conceded). Bookmaker mispricing is accelerating on the away side (GL_5 1.55 vs GL_10 1.30) and the quality gap (Marathon 4th, 22 pts, 9W-1D in last 10 home games vs Platense 11th, 8 pts) supports early pressure, while the corner Over was rejected (H2H corners under 11 in 3 of 4) and the -1.5 handicap was rejected (Marathon covered by 2+ in only 3 of 10 home wins). |
|
| 06-11-2026 03:05 |
Mexico Liga de Expansion |
Alacranes de Durango |
- |
Universidad Guadalajara |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected total = (1.80 + 1.40)/2 + (2.10 + 0.70)/2 = 1.60 + 1.40 = 3.00 goals, a full 0.50 above the 2.5 line, and the shot-based match potential (25.8 combined shots / 8.24 goals-to-shots ratio) also clears the line. Recent form is heavy Over: Durango's last 5 matches produced 4, 5, 5, 0 and 6 goals (4/5 over 2.5) and Universidad Guadalajara's last 5 produced 4, 2, 3, 2 and 9 goals (3/5 over 2.5, 6/10 over 2.5 in the last 10), with the only H2H finishing 1-2 (3 goals). Mutual-opponent data reinforces it — total 3.6 goals across 5 shared opponents (Durango 3.0 for / 0.8 against, UG 2.2 for / 1.2 against) with UG conceding 5.2 shots on target per game — and bookmaker mispricing is aligned and accelerating (Durango GL_5 2.40 vs GL_10 1.68; UG GL_5 1.65 vs GL_10 1.23). Confidence: base 50% + gap from line +10% + away history (60%) +5% + common opponents +5% + GL_5 home +8% + GL_5 away +5% + home history +0% + H2H +0% + likelihood +0% + structural +0% = 83%, capped at the 82% standard tier ceiling (elevated tier not met — home full-sample Over rate is only 40%/10), then stepped back to 80% for the line move from 2.75 to 2.5; corners (expected 9.55 vs 9.5 line, only 30%/40% over 9.5) and the 1st-half line (expected 1.25 vs 1.0, 40%/40% over 1.0) do not qualify. |
|
| 06-11-2026 05:00 |
Mongolia Premier League |
FC Ulaanbaatar |
- |
Central Stallions |
FC Ulaanbaatar -0.75 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Ulaanbaatar have covered the handicap in 5 of their last 5 AH results (6-1-3 over 10) and have won the last three H2H meetings 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 — the two most recent with clean sheets — while at home they have 8 wins and 2 draws in 10 with 3.40 scored and only 0.90 conceded per game. The venue-matched mutual-opponent comparison favours the home side on 4 of 5 stats (goals NET +2.38 vs +1.25, dangerous attacks +27.6 vs -1.0, goals-to-shots 4.56 vs 6.78 against shared opposition, 7-0-1 vs 2-1-1 record), whereas Central Stallions are only 2-3 in their last 5 AH results. The 4.25 goal line was rejected: expected total 4.40 clears it by just 0.15 with a high market pricing error (home GL_5 2.85), but 3 of 4 H2H totals (1, 2, 5, 3 goals) and the mutual-opponent goals volume (3.82) contradict an Over, and all available 1st-half and corner lines are blank, removing those markets. |
|
| 06-11-2026 08:00 |
Mongolia Premier League |
Hunters FC |
- |
Deren FC |
Over 5.0,5.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 5.85 ((4.80+1.20)/2 + (2.70+3.00)/2), clearing the 5.0/5.5 line, and Hunters' last 10 produced over 5.25 in 8/10 (e.g. 1-9, 1-7, 6-1). Deren's 4/10 over 5.25 is the main caution, but the shot-based potential is above the line and bookmaker mispricing is severe/accelerating (home GL_5 3.45, away GL_5 2.00 vs GL_10 1.68), while the only H2H is a neutral 1-1. |
|
| 06-11-2026 10:00 |
Vietnam V-League 2 |
Van Hien University |
- |
CLB Bong Da Hue |
Over 2.75 Goals |
67% |
Expected total is 2.90 goals — Van Hien 1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded at home, Hue 1.60 scored / 2.00 conceded away: (1.20+2.00)/2 + (1.60+1.00)/2 = 2.90 — just above the 2.5,3.0 line, and the shot-based match potential also clears it (40.2 total shots ÷ 7.57 shots-per-goal = 5.31 vs line 2.75). Hue's away matches are 5 of 6 over 2.75 (totals 5,5,2,5,3,4; 7 of 10 overall) and they conceded 2+ in four of their last five (1-2 vs Khanh Hoa, 4-1 at Hung Yen, 2-2 vs HCMC, 4-1 at Thai Nguyen), giving up 5.3 shots on target and 2.00 goals per away game; the counterweight is Van Hien's slow home scoring (2.20 goals per home game, only 2 of 5 home matches over 2.5). H2H is empty, mutual opponents are unusable (g=1 each, treated neutral), and bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 1.20 home / 1.30 away, GL_10 1.28 both — no confidence adjustment). Scoring: base 50% + gap 0.15 goals (+3) + home history 40% over (+0) + away history 70% over (+8) + H2H (+0) + common opponents (+0) + likelihood 55% over 2.5 (+3) + GL_5 home (+0) + GL_5 away (+0) + structural away defensive fragility, 4 of last 5 conceding 2+ (+5) = 69%, trimmed to 67% for Van Hien's sub-50% over record in this line. |
|
| 06-11-2026 11:00 |
Armenia Premier League |
FC Van |
- |
Pyunik Yerevan |
1st Half Over 1.25 Goals |
68% |
1st-half expected total = (0.40+0.20)/2 + (1.40+1.10)/2 = 1.55, a +0.30 edge over the 1.25 line. Pyunik score 1.40 first-half goals away and hit the net before the break in 6 of their last 10 (60%), while FC Van concede 1.10 first-half goals at home and are repeatedly breached early (0-1 HT vs Gandzasar, 0-1 HT vs BKMA, 2-0 down HT to Alashkert); the only H2H with HT data was Pyunik 2-0 at the break. Pyunik's FT GL_5 of 1.95 (accelerating from GL_10 1.78) is the largest bookmaker mispricing in the match and, with expected goals above the line, points to an early-over outcome — the 1.25 quarter line lets a single first-half goal only half-lose rather than bust the ticket. |
|
| 06-11-2026 11:00 |
Israel Liga Bet South |
Hapoel Hod Hasharon |
- |
Bnei Yehud |
Over 3.0 Goals |
67% |
Expected total = (2.90+2.10)/2 + (2.50+1.30)/2 = 4.40 goals against the 3.0 line (a 1.40-goal gap), and the shot-based potential (combined 31.4 shots / 5.89 goals-per-shot ratio ≈ 5.3) also clears the line comfortably, so both raw methods point Over. Hapoel Hod Hasharon's home games average 4.20 total (2.90 scored, 1.30 conceded) with recent 8-2 and 6-1 wins, while Bnei Yehud's away profile (2.50 scored, 2.10 conceded) supports goals rather than the low-scoring totals of their recent home fixtures. The home team's market pricing error is severe — GL_5 = 2.40, accelerating vs GL_10 = 2.23 — and aligns with Over, though the away side's history of never exceeding 3 total and the smooth 3.0 push risk keep confidence at 67% (Base 50 + gap +15 + home history +0 + away history +0 + H2H +0 + common opponents +0 + likelihood +0 + GL_5 home +8 + GL_5 away +0 + form momentum +3 = 76% raw, tempered to 67% for push/sub-sample risk). |
|
| 06-11-2026 12:00 |
Indonesia Super League |
Madura United |
- |
Arema FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time total of 3.50 (Madura 1.70 scored/1.60 conceded at home; Arema 2.10 scored/1.60 conceded away) sits a full 0.75 goals above the 2.75 line, and the shot-based match potential (43.2 total shots / 6.905 shot-ratio) also clears the line comfortably. Arema's matches have gone Over 2.75 in 9 of their last 10 (90%), including 4-0, 5-1, 4-0, 3-3 and 4-0 scorelines, while Madura's home games are 6 of 10 (60%) Over; both recent H2H meetings finished 2-2 (4 goals). Arema conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (5 at Persija, 3 at Garudayaksa, 3 at PSM, 3 at Persija) confirming away defensive fragility, and Madura's bookmaker pricing error is accelerating (GL_5 1.65 vs GL_10 1.23) in the Over direction. Raw checklist score ~90% capped at the standard 82% tier ceiling (Elevated conditions unmet: home match history only 60%, H2H sample under 3 matches), finalised at 80%. |
|
| 06-11-2026 12:00 |
Serbia League Women |
ZFK TSC Women |
- |
Vojvodina Women |
|
68% |
TSC’s projected home goals are only 2.10 — (1.80 scored at home + 2.40 conceded by Vojvodina away)/2 — while Vojvodina project 1.80 from (2.10 scored away + 1.50 conceded by TSC at home)/2, a home margin of just +0.30 versus the -1.25 line. Vojvodina covered +1.25 in 6 of their last 8 matches, and all four H2H meetings saw TSC fail to win by two or more (0-0, 0-1, Vojvodina 2-1, Vojvodina 1-2). |
|
| 06-11-2026 12:45 |
UAE Division 1 |
Al Dhaid |
- |
Emirates Club RAK |
Over 2.75 Goals |
77% |
Expected total = (home 1.70 scored + away 1.00 conceded)/2 + (away 2.40 scored + home 1.20 conceded)/2 = 1.35 + 1.80 = 3.15, fully 0.40 above the 2.5/3.0 line, with the shot-based match potential of 40.8 shots / 7.245 ratio = 5.63 also clearing the line and mutual-opponent goals averaging (1.29+0.71+2.57+1.43)/2 = 3.00. Emirates Club RAK have gone Over 2.5 in 7 of their last 10 (70%, totals 3,8,3,5,4,1,1,3,2,3) and Al Dhaid's last 10 average exactly 3.0 goals per game (2,1,2,3,2,5,6,2,3,4), with both H2H meetings clearing the line (1-2 and 2-2); their away GL_5 of 1.80 rising above GL_10 of 1.40 signals accelerating bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction, adding to the 70% away-history and common-opponent support (score: base 50 + gap 8 + away history 8 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + away market pricing error 3 = 77%). |
|
| 06-11-2026 13:00 |
Israel Leumit Liga |
Hapoel Rishon Lezion |
- |
Hapoel Raanana |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
65% |
1st-half expected goals are 1.60 vs the 1.25 line: (1.30+0.30)/2 + (1.00+0.60)/2, with home side Hapoel Rishon scoring 1.30 first-half goals at home and Raanana conceding 0.30 first-half away. Hapoel Rishon have gone over 1.25 first-half goals in 7/10 recent matches (70%) while Raanana are 5/10, meeting the Over history threshold; the only H2H is a 2-1 full-time result with no HT split, so it is neutral. Market pricing error is mild (GL_5 home 1.15, away 1.10), so no variance boost, giving a final 65% confidence: base 50% + gap 7% + home HT history 8% + away HT history 0% + H2H 0% + structural 0%. |
|
| 06-11-2026 13:00 |
Croatia 2.NL |
NK Uljanik |
- |
NK Inker Zapresic |
Over 3.0 Goals |
66% |
Expected full-time total = (1.60+1.30)/2 + (1.60+1.80)/2 = 1.45 + 1.70 = 3.15, which sits above the 3.0 line and clears the Over-first threshold. Uljanik's five home games this season produced 1-3, 3-3, 3-1, 2-2 and 3-0 — 4.2 goals per game with 4 of 5 going over 3.0 (one push) — while Inker Zapresic have scored in 5 of 6 away games (1.6 per game, 1.3 conceded), so both sides contribute. Shot-volume cross-check: (9.00+10.60)x2 = 39.2 total shots divided by a 6.53 shots-per-goal ratio gives a match potential of 6.0, far above the 3.0 line, and scoring is back-ended (53.85% of Inker's concessions come in the final 15 minutes), so late goals are live; bookmaker pricing error is only mild (goal-line GL_5 1.15 home / 1.05 away, both under 1.5) so no extra confidence was added, and H2H is empty (neutral). Confidence breakdown: base 50% + gap 0.15 over line +3% + home venue history 80% over +10% + away history (17% over 3.0, four pushes) +0% + H2H +0% + common opponents (mutual total 2.9, neutral) +0% + likelihood +3% + pricing error +0% + structural +0% = 66%. |
|
| 06-11-2026 13:30 |
England Development League 2 |
Millwall U21 |
- |
Cardiff U21 |
Over 3.5 Goals |
74% |
Expected total is 3.60 (Millwall home scored 1.30/conceded 1.70; Cardiff away scored 2.50/conceded 1.70) and the venue-matched mutual-opponent total is 3.82, both above the 3.5 line. Cardiff away matches have gone Over 3.5 in 7/10, they conceded 2+ in four of their last six away games, and Millwall's GL_5 bookmaker pricing error is 2.05 (accelerating vs 1.83 GL_10), supporting the Over side. |
|
| 06-11-2026 14:00 |
Algeria Division 2 |
CA Batna |
- |
Paradou AC |
Over 2.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 2.50: (CA Batna home scored 1.10 + Paradou away conceded 1.70)/2 + (Paradou away scored 1.40 + CA Batna home conceded 0.80)/2 = 2.50, clearing the 2.0 line by 0.50. Paradou away matches have gone Over 2.0 in 5 of 6 recent games (totals 3,1,3,6,3,8) and the mutual-opponent goal total is 3.33, while the H2H was a 6-4 Over. CA Batna’s 3 pushes at exactly 2.0 soften the home-history concern, and Paradou’s GL_5 of 1.50 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction. |
|
| 06-11-2026 15:00 |
Bulgaria First League |
Septemvri Sofia |
- |
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time total = (1.00+1.90)/2 + (1.30+1.80)/2 = 3.00 goals, a +0.50 gap over the 2.5 line. Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia have been structurally leaky away — conceding 2+ in 8 of their last 10 away matches (4 of the last 5: 1,2,2,3,3) and surrendering 5.2 shots on target per away game — while Septemvri ship 1.8 at home, giving this an Over shape. Both teams sit in the relegation zone (12th vs 14th) and are 60% Over 2.5 across their last 10 each, the venue-matched mutual-opponent sample projects 2.87 total goals, and the away side's mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.25) leans the same direction; Over 1st-half 1.0 was rejected (only 30%/50% of games produce 2+ first-half goals) and Asian Corners have no posted line, so the full-time Over is the strongest qualifying market. |
|
| 06-11-2026 15:00 |
Jordan Division 1 |
Shabab Al-Aqaba SC |
- |
Jerash SC |
Jerash SC -1.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Jerash SC are 3W-1D-0L away in the league with 7 goals scored and only 1 conceded, and their three away wins were all 2-0, while Shabab Al-Aqaba are 0W-0D-4L at home with 5 scored and 12 conceded, conceding 2+ in all four. Shabab have lost 7/10 and 3/5 Asian Handicaps, giving two of three AH signals since the mutual-opponent sample is invalid with g=1 each. Full-time Over 3.0 was rejected because only 2/8 home and 1/7 away matches cleared 3.0, and the 1st-half Over 1.25 had only 3/8 and 1/7, so Jerash -1.25 is the best qualifying value. |
|
| 06-11-2026 15:00 |
Bahrain Division 2 |
Buri Cultural SC |
- |
Etehad Al Reef |
1st Half Under 1.25 Goals |
75% |
1st-half expected total is exactly the line at 1.25 ((A_ht 0.60 + B_ht 1.10)/2 + (C_ht 0.20 + D_ht 0.60)/2 = 0.85 + 0.40 = 1.25), but both sides' recent first halves sit far below it: Buri Cultural's last six matches produced HT totals of 0,0,1,0,1,2 and Etehad Al Reef's 1,0,1,1,1,4 — only 2 of 12 (17%) reached two first-half goals. Structurally Etehad average just 0.20 first-half goals scored away (blanked before the break in 4 of their last 6) and Buri average 0.60 HT goals scored and 0.60 conceded at home, so neither side shows an early-scoring pattern (Buri have 0 goals inside 15 minutes in their scoring-minute profile), giving the two independent structural reasons required for an Under. Full-time was rejected: expected 2.80 vs the 3.0 line, Buri have scored once in two home league games this season (1-0, 0-0) and H2H finished 0-0 and 0-2, while home GL_5 of 1.50 is moderate but points the same (Under) direction and away GL_5 of 0.95 is well-calibrated. |
|
| 06-11-2026 16:00 |
Azerbaijan Premier League |
Neftchi Baku |
- |
FK Kapaz |
Over 2.75 Goals |
66% |
Neftchi Baku at home score 2.50/game and have gone Over 2.5 in 8 of their last 10 home matches (4-1, 5-0, 6-0, 3-0 x2), giving expected full-time total = (2.50+1.00)/2 + (1.30+1.10)/2 = 2.95, which clears the 2.75 Asian line. The away side is the drag — Kapaz away games only average 2.30 total goals (1.30 scored, 1.00 conceded) and go Over 2.5 just ~30-40% of the time, and the two H2H meetings (0-1 and 1-3) are too small a sample to be decisive (neutral). Neftchi's market pricing error is elevated at GL_5 2.30 (vs GL_10 2.05, accelerating) but direction is ambiguous since the opening line was 3.0, so I take the edge from the home side's dominant home-scoring profile rather than the mispricing; with the Over-first mandate and expected total above the line, Over 2.75 is the best available play (no corners market is priced). |
|
| 06-11-2026 16:30 |
Qatar Stars League |
Al-Wakrah SC |
- |
Al-Shahaniya SC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected total is 3.65 = (1.60+2.40)/2 + (1.10+2.20)/2, a +0.65 gap above the 3.0 line, and the shot-based match potential of 6.07 (37.0 total shots / 6.09 goals-to-shots ratio) also clears the line. Al-Wakrah's last 10 produced goals of 4,5,3,5,2,4,3,4,6,5 (6 overs and 2 pushes at 3.0), and Al-Shahaniya conceded 2+ in three of their last five away games (4 at Al-Shamal, 2 at Al-Gharafa, 3 at Al-Rayyan) while shipping 6.9 shots on target per game and 6.0 in the mutual-opponent sample, with mutual-opponent total goals at 3.40 clearing the line. H2H (4-0, 3-0) is neutral at only 2 matches but not contradicting, likelihood has Over 2.5 at 80% and Over 3.5 at 60%, and bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 1.00 home / 1.25 away, both stabilising vs GL_10), so the edge is structural rather than pricing-driven — conf = 50 base +13 gap +5 home history (60%) +0 away history (50%) +0 H2H +5 common opponents +3 likelihood +0/0 GL_5 +5 away defensive fragility = 81% raw, taken at 78% given push risk at exactly 3.0. |
|
| 06-11-2026 16:40 |
Kuwait League |
Al Shabab Club |
- |
Al Tadamon SC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
69% |
Expected-goals model gives (1.20+2.20)/2 + (1.10+1.70)/2 = 3.10, clearing the 2.75 line by 0.35; the venue-matched mutual-opponent goals total is also 3.13 (above the line). Al Tadamon have conceded 2+ in each of their last 5 games (2,6,2,2,4) and concede 2.20 goals/game away while facing 7.2 shots on target, and Al Shabab's current-season home games have produced 14 goals in 3 (9 conceded) — both are genuine Over structures. Away-side bookmaker mispricing is strong and aligned (GL_5 2.05 accelerating vs GL_10 1.55, +4% partial as only one side is high), but confidence is held to 69% because both teams are only 50% over 2.5 in their last 10 and the 2-match H2H (0-2, 1-1) is low-scoring. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:00 |
Czechia 2. Liga |
Dukla Praha |
- |
FK Pribram |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected goals are 3.40: Dukla average 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded at home, Pribram 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded away, giving (2.00+1.80)/2 + (1.80+1.20)/2 = 3.40, which clears the 2.75 line by 0.65. Recent match history is strongly Over: Dukla are 7/10 and Pribram 8/10 over 2.75, and the venue-matched mutual-opponents total is 3.33. H2H is empty, but the structural and historical signals align; bookmaker pricing error is only mild (GL_5 1.30 for both), so confidence is capped at the 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:00 |
Czechia 2. Liga |
Opava |
- |
FC Sellier & Bellot Vlašim |
Over 2.75 Goals |
78% |
Expected total = (A+B)/2 + (C+D)/2 = (1.60+1.30)/2 + (1.50+1.70)/2 = 1.45 + 1.60 = 3.05 goals, sitting 0.30 above the 2.5,3.0 (2.75) line. Opava's home games are running hot (last 5 at home: 2,4,3,3,4 goals — four of five with 3+) and 7/10 of their matches cleared 2.5; Vlasim cleared 2.5 in 6/10 and have conceded 2+ in four of their last five away games (2,0,2,3,2), a confirmed defensive-fragility Over signal. Mutual-opponent venue-matched data shows Vlasim conceding 11.1 shots and 60.1 dangerous attacks per game against shared opposition (vs Opava's 8.3/46.3), and Opava's market pricing error is elevated and accelerating (GL_5 1.65 vs GL_10 1.48) with the expected total on the Over side of the opening line. The 1st half (expected 1.65 vs a 1.0 line, Vlasim 7/10 over 1.0 HT) was also positive but graded lower than the full-time signal. H2H is a single 2-0 match (neutral, insufficient sample). |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:00 |
Czechia 2. Liga |
Vysocina Jihlava |
- |
MFK Karvina |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected goals are 3.70: (2.20 + 1.20)/2 + (1.90 + 2.10)/2, 0.70 above the 3.0 line, with Vysocina's last 10 Over 3.0 at 7/10 (70%) and Karvina's at 5/10 (50%; 5/8 non-push). Karvina conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (Pribram 2-1, Opava 2-0, Sigma Olomouc 4-0), mutual-opponent total is 3.4, home GL_5 is 1.70 (moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with Over), away GL_5 is 0.85, and H2H is empty/neutral. Confidence: base 50 + gap +14 + home history +8 + away history +0 + H2H +0 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + home GL_5 +3 + away GL_5 +0 + away fragility +5 = 88 raw, capped at the 82% standard ceiling; 1H Over 1.25 projects 1.75 but scores lower at about 79%. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:00 |
Austria Landesliga |
Red Star Penzing |
- |
SV Schwechat |
Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
72% |
1st-half expected goals are only 1.25: (0.70+0.70)/2 + (0.50+0.60)/2, below the 1.5 line. Red Star home 1st-half matches have gone under 1.5 in 7/10 and Schwechat 6/10, and Schwechat failed to score before half-time in 3 of their last 5; the only H2H is a 0-2 Red Star win, so H2H is neutral. Confidence: Base 50 + gap +5 + home HT history +8 + away HT history +5 + H2H +0 + structural low HT +5 = 73%, rounded down to 72% given Red Star scored in 3 of last 5 home first halves; home GL_5 1.70 is not directionally useful because FT expected 3.20 is essentially on the 3.25 line. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:00 |
Cyprus Division 1 |
Nea Salamis Famagusta |
- |
Omonia Aradippou |
Over 2.5 Goals |
73% |
Full-time expected total is 3.00 — (home 1.80 scored + away 1.30 conceded)/2 plus (away 1.20 scored + home 1.70 conceded)/2 = 1.55 + 1.45 — sitting 0.50 above the 2.5 line. Nea Salamis's home games have gone Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 (80%, averaging 3.2 total goals) with 3+ scored in three of their last five at home (4-0, 3-0, 3-1), while Aradippou concede 1.30 away and cough up 7.2 shots on target per game against shared opponents (mutual-opponent defensive-weakness signal). Bookmaker mispricing is elevated and Over-aligned (GL_5 home 1.80, away 1.85 vs GL_10 1.53 — accelerating), though Aradippou's own low-scoring away run (0 of last 5 away games over 2.5) and a 2.32 mutual-opponent total keep confidence below the elevated tier at 73%. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:00 |
Sweden Damallsvenskan |
Djurgardens Women |
- |
BK Hacken Women |
|
67% |
Hacken’s mutual-opponent profile is dominant: 3.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, 17.7 shots and 7.4 on target, with a 9-0-1 record against shared opposition, versus Djurgården’s 1.8/1.2 and 4-3-3. Djurgården’s home table is 2W-1D-7L with 11 scored and 21 conceded, and H2H Hacken won both meetings 3-1 and 2-0, so a repeat 2-goal margin secures at least a half win on -1.75. Hacken’s last-10 AH cover is 6/10 and the current -1.75 line at 1.90 prices the expected 2-goal edge fairly, giving a 67% qualifying lean. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:00 |
Morocco GNF 1 |
HUSA Agadir |
- |
RSB Berkane |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
74% |
1H expected goals are 1.20 = (0.70+0.40)/2 + (0.50+0.80)/2, a +0.45 gap over the 0.75 line; HUSA's home matches in the sample have produced at least one first-half goal in 4/4, while Berkane's away first halves are slower at 2/5 over 0.75. H2H is neutral with only two meetings and no 1H split, while bookmaker pricing error is moderate and accelerating (GL_5 1.80 home / 1.65 away vs GL_10 1.43 / 1.58), supporting the 1H Over. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:00 |
Croatia 3.NL |
NK Zagorec Krapina |
- |
Gaj Mace |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 3.90: ((1.60+2.00)/2)+((2.60+1.60)/2), comfortably above the 3.0 line. FT matches went Over 3.0 in 5/8 for NK Zagorec and 6/7 for Gaj Mace, while the sole H2H produced 4 goals (Gaj Mace 0-4 NK Zagorec). Home GL_5 1.75 vs GL_10 1.33 signals accelerating bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction; 1st-half Over 1.25 is less attractive because NK Zagorec HT matches reached 2+ goals in only 2/8. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:15 |
Bulgaria First League |
Botev Plovdiv |
- |
Dunav Ruse |
Over 2.75 Goals (2.5,3.0) |
78% |
Expected total is 3.15 goals: Botev Plovdiv score 2.10 and concede 1.20 at home, Dunav Ruse score 1.40 and concede 1.60 away — (2.10+1.60)/2 + (1.40+1.20)/2 = 1.85+1.30 = 3.15, a +0.40 gap over the 2.5/3.0 line. Both teams show 6/10 Over 2.5 in their last 10 (Botev home games include 5-2, 4-0, 3-0 wins; Dunav away games include 2-3, 2-3, 2-2, 2-2, 3-1), and Botev's last 10 home matches produced 24 goals scored and only 3 conceded. Structural Over support: Dunav conceded 2+ in four of their last five away matches (2, 2, 2, 3) and concede 5.8 shots on target per away game in the venue-matched common-opponent sample, while bookmaker goal-line error is accelerating for both sides (home GL_5 1.95 vs GL_10 1.60; away 1.70 vs 1.43) pointing the same direction as the Over. The only drag is the common-opponent goal total of 2.2, which caps confidence at 78% rather than the tier ceiling. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:30 |
Austria 2. Liga |
FC Liefering |
- |
SV Austria Salzburg |
Over 4.5 Corners (1st Half) |
68% |
1st-half corner expectation is 5.05: (2.50+2.10)/2 + (2.50+3.00)/2, clearing the 4.5 line by 0.55. FC Liefering have gone over 4.5 first-half corners in 7/10 matches, including 6, 5 and 7 in their last three, while Salzburg are at 5/10 and the sole H2H produced 12 total corners. Confidence 50% base +5% line gap +8% home history +5% structural corner pressure =68%, with away history/H2H neutral. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:30 |
Germany Bundesliga Women |
Bayern Munich Women |
- |
Werder Bremen Women |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
1H expected goals = 1.60: (1.30+0.10)/2 + (1.30+0.50)/2, clearing the 1.5 line. Bayern's home first-half totals were 0,3,2,3,4 (4/5 over 1.5, 80%), while Werder scored in the first half in 4/5 away games. Confidence 73% = base 50 + home HT history +10 + early-scoring/dominant-home context +8 + quality-gap pressure +5, with the single H2H meeting neutral for the HT market. |
|
| 06-11-2026 17:30 |
Germany Bundesliga Women |
Eintracht Frankfurt Women |
- |
Wolfsburg Women |
Over 3.25 Goals |
74% |
Expected full-time goals = (1.90 home scored + 0.60 away conceded)/2 + (3.90 away scored + 1.20 home conceded)/2 = 1.25 + 2.55 = 3.80, clearing the 3.25 split line by 0.55 goals, and the shot-based cross-check also lands well above the line (~37 combined shots / 7.77 goals-to-shots ratio). Wolfsburg's attack averages 3.90 goals away and its last-5 goal-line mispricing is 2.20 versus a 1.68 ten-game baseline (accelerating, strong bookmaker error signalling Over), while H2H produced 4, 1 and 5 total goals (2 of 3 Over) and mutual opponents average 4.20 combined goals — reinforcing the Over. Wolfsburg match history is 60% Over 3.5 and only Frankfurt's 50% Over 3.5 plus the likelihood's 35% for 3.5+ keeps this a moderate rather than top-tier play. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Germany 3. Liga |
FC Viktoria Köln |
- |
Saarbrucken |
Over 3.25 Goals |
71% |
Expected goals are 3.60 vs a 3.25 line: Viktoria Köln average 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded at home, while Saarbrücken average 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded away. Viktoria have gone over 3.25 in 6/10 and Saarbrücken in 5/10, with Viktoria scoring 2+ in each of their last three home matches; moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.75 home, 1.80 away) supports the Over, while the single H2H 2-0 is too small a sample to override. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Denmark Division 3 |
Holbæk |
- |
Bronshoj BK |
Over 3 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is (2.20+1.50)/2 + (2.40+1.50)/2 = 3.80, clearing the 3.0 line by 0.80; Holbæk are 6/10 Over 3.0 and Bronshoj 5/10 with two pushes, while mutual-opponent total is 3.55 and Holbæk lead 5/5 stat comparisons. Bronshoj have conceded 2+ in each of their last five listed away games (3,2,2,4,5) and 5.29 shots on target against in the mutual sample, supporting the Over; H2H is only two games (1-4, 0-2) and neutral, and bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.15/1.35), so the standard 82% ceiling applies. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Denmark Division 3 |
Sundby |
- |
FC Helsingor |
Sundby 0 Asian Handicap (level ball) |
67% |
Sundby are a venue-split side that the level-ball price undervalues: at home in the league they are 3W-1D-2L with 12 goals for / 9 against across six games, while FC Helsingor away are 1W-2D-4L with 8 scored / 12 conceded in seven, losing at Ishoj, Horsholm and Bronshoj. The handicap records point the same way — Sundby have covered in 5 of their last 10 AH markets against Helsingor's 3 of 10 (and Helsingor have covered a level/plus line in only one of their five most recent away games). Against shared opposition Sundby hold a clear edge (goal NET +0.62 vs -0.66, and 5W-1D-2L vs 1W-1D-4L), while the single H2H (Helsingor 2-1 at home in September) is too small a sample to weigh against that. Goal-line and corners markets offer no qualifying value: the 3.0 line sits exactly on the 3.00 expected total with only 40%/20% venue Over-3 rates, the 1.25 first-half line is contradicted by Helsingor's 0 first-half goals in five away games, and no Asian Corners line is posted, so the handicap is the highest-confidence market at 65-69% on the two-of-three signal tier. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Denmark Division 2 |
B93 Copenhagen |
- |
Skive |
Over 2.75 Goals (Over 2.5/3.0) |
80% |
Expected goals = (B93 home scored 2.00 + Skive away conceded 1.30)/2 + (Skive away scored 1.60 + B93 home conceded 1.20)/2 = 1.65 + 1.40 = 3.05, comfortably above the 2.5/3.0 (2.75) line; the shot-based match potential also clears the line. B93 have gone Over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 (80%) and Skive in 6 of 10 (60%), and Skive have conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games (3-3 at Middelfart, 3-0 at Roskilde, 2-2 at FA 2000), a clear away-defensive-fragility Over signal. Mutual opponents average 3.4 goals per game versus the 2.75 line (supporting Over), the only H2H finished Skive 2-1 B93 (3 goals, Over), and Skive's moderate bookmaker pricing error (GL_5 1.45, accelerating from GL_10 1.40) with expected total above the line adds a small Over edge; the 1st-half line (1.25) is weaker, with only 50%/40% Over-1.5 history, so full-time is the better value. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Austria Regionalliga Ost |
FC Marchfeld Donauauen |
- |
SR Fach-Donaufeld |
Asian Handicap: FC Marchfeld Donauauen -1 |
70% |
Marchfeld lead the Regionalliga Ost (29 pts, +21 GD) and at home score 2.20 and concede 1.00 per game (13-4 in six home league games); in their last 10 home matches they went 9W-1D with 31 goals scored and 4 conceded, covering -1 in 8 of 10 (3-0, 4-0, 3-1, 3-1 scorelines) with one push (1-0) and one loss. Fach-Donaufeld are only 2W-2D-2L away (7-9), including 3-4 at Kremser and 0-3 at Leobendorf, and their AH record is 3W-7L over 10 and 1W-4L over 5. Against shared opposition Marchfeld holds a +1.10 goal NET (2.1 scored / 1.0 conceded) versus Fach's -0.25 (1.75 / 2.0) and sweeps the volume stats (shots 12.2 v 7.8 conceded, on target 5.5 v 3.4, dangerous attacks 82 v 65.8), so the two-goal home win is the value side. Goal-line Over 3.25 was rejected (expected 3.00 vs a 3.25 line, and the away side is over 3.5 in only 40% of games) and 1st-half Over 1.25 likewise (expected 1.40 but only 30%/40% of matches reach two first-half goals); Asian Corners has no posted line. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Austria Regionalliga South |
SV Tillmitsch |
- |
Fsc Eggendorf Hartberg II |
Over 3.0 Goals |
74% |
Expected total = (1.70+1.40)/2 + (1.90+2.10)/2 = 1.55 + 2.00 = 3.55, clearing the 3.0 line by 0.55. Home side SV Tillmitsch is the engine: 8 of 10 home matches went over 3.0 (80%, with recent 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 scorelines and a 3.8-4.1 goals-per-home-game average), while the venue-matched mutual-opponent sample totals 4.25 goals (h 2.25/1.75, a 2.0/2.5), reinforcing the Over. H2H is neutral-leaning Over (2-2, 4 goals in the last meeting) and shooting-volume match potential is comfortably above the line; the main caution is the away side's lower-scoring away profile (43% over 3.0, ~2.5 total in recent away games) and the exact-3 push risk, so confidence is set at 74% rather than higher. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.35 away, 1.00 home), so no extra credit is claimed there. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Austria Regionalliga South |
SC Kalsdorf |
- |
Deutschlandsberger SC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
72% |
Expected total is 3.50 goals — Kalsdorf average 1.40 scored / 1.50 conceded at home, Deutschlandsberger 1.90 scored / 2.20 conceded away — a 0.50 gap above the 3.0 line. Deutschlandsberger's venue-matched away record shows 4+ total goals in 8 of 10 matches (totals 8,4,4,8,4,3,5,8,3,4) with zero unders and 2+ conceded in 8 of 10, while the venue-matched mutual-opponent sample averages 3.90 goals per game (2.13+1.50 and 2.33+1.83, divided by 2). Bookmaker pricing error is severe on Deutschlandsberger (GL_5 2.10 vs GL_10 1.93, accelerating) and aligns with the Over, offsetting Kalsdorf's lower-scoring home games (2.90 goals/game, but 4 of 11 landing exactly three goals, which the 3.0 line pushes rather than loses). |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Austria Regionalliga North |
Seekirchen |
- |
SK Vorwärts Steyr |
Over 2.75 Goals |
74% |
Expected full-time total = (A+B)/2 + (C+D)/2 = (1.30 home goals scored + 2.30 Steyr goals conceded away)/2 + (0.80 Steyr goals scored away + 2.60 Seekirchen goals conceded at home)/2 = 1.80 + 1.70 = 3.50, which clears the 2.5/3.0 (2.75) line by 0.75 goals; the shot-based cross-check also qualifies (match_potential 4.76 vs line 2.75). Seekirchen's home matches are 6 of 8 (75%) over 2.75 with totals of 4-2, 4-3, 3-0, 3-0 and they have conceded 2+ in 5 of their last 8 at home, while mutual-opponent goal volume is 3.0 vs the 2.75 line. Bookmaker pricing error is only mild (GL_5 1.15 home / 1.40 away, below the 1.5 threshold), so no bonus is applied, and the main risk is Steyr's away scoring drought (0.80 goals/away game, blanked in 3 of their last 4 on the road) which keeps this at 74% rather than the 78% raw checklist score. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Austria Landesliga |
UFC Fehring |
- |
Leoben DSV |
Over 3.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 4.55 goals: (1.90 home scored + 3.80 away conceded)/2 + (1.50 away scored + 1.90 home conceded)/2, which is +0.80 above the 3.75 line. Leoben's away matches are 6/6 over 3.5+ with 3.80 conceded per away game, and the venue-matched mutual-opponent total is 4.20; Fehring's home history is only 4/10 over 3.5+, but the away-side signal is decisive. Bookmaker mispricing is strong and accelerating on both sides (GL_5 1.75 home, 2.20 away; both GL_5 > GL_10), so the raw checklist score is capped at the standard 82% ceiling. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Denmark Superligaen |
Silkeborg IF |
- |
Lyngby |
Over 3.0 Goals |
71% |
Expected full-time total = (home scored 1.40 + away conceded 1.80)/2 + (away scored 1.60 + home conceded 2.10)/2 = 1.60 + 1.85 = 3.45, clearing the 3.0 line by +0.45 (shot-based match potential also well above line). Silkeborg's last 10 produced 6 Overs at 3.0 (5,4,6,4,4,4 goals) and Lyngby's recent away games are high-scoring — they conceded 2+ in all of their last five away matches (3,5,2,2,3) while still scoring themselves. Mutual-opponent goal volume = (0.9+2.0+1.33+2.0)/2 = 3.12, just over the line, and Lyngby's bookmaker mispricing is strong (GL_5 2.20 vs GL_10 1.55, accelerating) with Silkeborg also at GL_5 1.65, giving a double Over mispricing signal. The one caution is Lyngby's full last-10 shows only 40% Over 3.0, so the line carries push risk at exactly 3 goals, capping confidence in the low-70s rather than higher. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:00 |
Argentina Championship Women |
San Luis FC Women |
- |
Ferro Carril Oeste Women |
Over 2.25 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time total of 3.10 ((1.60 home scored + 1.70 away conceded)/2 + (1.70 away scored + 1.20 home conceded)/2) sits 0.85 above the 2.25 line, and shot-based match potential (~5.5) also clears it comfortably. The decisive driver is Ferro's away defence: they conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games (3-2, 3-1, 2-1, 2-2) and their last 10 matches went Over 2.5 in 7/10 (70%), while San Luis' own home games are mixed at 5/10 over 2.5. Ferro's market pricing error is elevated (GL_5 1.80, accelerating vs GL_10 1.60) with actual totals trending above opening lines, giving an Over edge; San Luis' GL_5 is 0.75 (well-calibrated). Mutual-opponent goals volume of 2.5 marginally clears the line and the single H2H (0-2) is too small a sample to override. Risk: San Luis' tendency to low-scoring home wins (1-0/2-0) and draw equity caps this around 76%; corners market is unavailable so the goal line is the best play. |
|
| 06-11-2026 18:30 |
Austria Regionalliga Ost |
Oberwart |
- |
Wiener Sportclub |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
72% |
First-half expected total is 1.65 (Oberwart HT at home 0.80 scored / 0.70 conceded; Wiener Sportclub HT away 1.40 scored / 0.40 conceded) against a 1.25 line — a +0.40 gap, materially better than the full-time edge (3.50 expected vs 3.25 line, where only 4/10 and 5/10 of the teams' last 10 games cleared the split line). Oberwart's last 10 produced 2+ first-half goals in 6 of 10 (3 of 4 home games) and Wiener Sportclub scored before the break in 9 of 10, while Oberwart concedes 70% of its goals in the first half (7 of 10 conceded before 45'). 11 of the 20 combined matches hit 2+ first-half goals (55%), an empirical +10% return at 1.775, and the away side's goal-line bookmaker mispricing is accelerating (GL_5 2.10 vs GL_10 1.80) in the Over direction: base 50% + gap +8% + home HT history +5% + away HT history +0% + H2H (empty) +0% + early-scoring structure +5% + pricing error (single-team half adjustment) +4% = 72%. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:00 |
Belgium First Division B |
Sporting Hasselt |
- |
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen |
Over 2.75 Goals |
74% |
Expected full-time goals = (1.90 home scored at home + 1.60 away conceded away)/2 + (1.40 away scored away + 1.40 home conceded at home)/2 = 1.75 + 1.40 = 3.15, a +0.40 gap above the 2.75 line; the shot-based cross-check (combined 25.7 shots vs ~7.54 shots-per-goal ratio) also lands above the line. Match history backs Over at this line: Sporting Hasselt 6/10 (60%) and Patro Eisden 7/10 (70%) of last-10 totals cleared 2.75, with recent scorelines of 3-4, 3-4, 1-3 for Hasselt and 3-1, 2-3, 4-2 for Patro. Bookmaker mispricing is strong and accelerating on the home side (GL_5 2.30 vs GL_10 1.65, expected total above opening line) with Patro also moderate (GL_5 1.60 vs 1.33), and structurally Patro concedes 2.33 goals and 7.67 shots on target per game to shared opponents while Hasselt scores 52.6% of goals and Patro concedes 47.1% in the 90th minute+, favoring late-goal variance. H2H is empty (neutral); the only drag is a small-sample mutual-opponent total of 2.33, so confidence is held to 74%. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:00 |
Belgium First Division B |
Genk II |
- |
Gent II |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
67% |
1st-half goals are the strongest signal: expected 1st-half total = (1.00 home-HT-scored-at-home + 0.60 away-HT-conceded-away)/2 + (0.60 away-HT-scored-away + 1.00 home-HT-conceded-at-home)/2 = 0.80 + 0.80 = 1.60 goals, a +0.35 gap over the 1.25 line — larger than the full-time margin (3.05 expected vs 3.25 line, actually slightly under). Genk II's home first halves average 2.0 goals (1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded), with 3 of their 4 home games reaching 2+ first-half goals, and Genk II concede early (17.65% in first 15 min) while Gent II score fast (23% in first 15 min). Full-time H2H (1-1, 0-0) is only 2 matches, so neutral and no HT data to veto. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate (home GL_5 1.50 vs GL_10 1.58 stabilising; away GL_5 1.45 vs GL_10 1.38 accelerating), not extreme. Confidence: base 50% + gap +7% + home HT history +5% + away HT history +0% + H2H +0% + structural early-scoring +5% + pricing +0% = 67%. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:00 |
Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
Helmond Sport |
- |
FC Volendam |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is (2.10+2.20)/2 + (2.20+2.50)/2 = 4.50, about 1.25 goals above the 3.0/3.5 line. Helmond had 7/10 matches over 3.5 and Volendam 5/10, while Volendam conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (5,4,5) and concede 7.5 shots on target per away game. Mutual-opponent goals total 3.72 clears the line and bookmaker mispricing is severe (GL_5 2.70 home, 2.55 away, both accelerating vs GL_10), so the raw score is capped at the 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:00 |
Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
FC Dordrecht |
- |
NAC |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals (1.0/1.5 line) |
80% |
1st half expected goals = (0.70+0.60)/2 + (1.20+1.60)/2 = 2.05, clearing the 1.0/1.5 line by 0.80; Dordrecht have gone Over 1.5 first-half goals in 8 of their last 10 (80%) and conceded first-half goals in each of their last four home matches at 1.60 per game, while NAC average 1.20 first-half goals away with 52% of their goals scored before the break. The full-time model also supports the over direction (expected 3.85 vs 3.0/3.5 line, gap 0.60) and Dordrecht's GL_5 of 1.65 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing on the opening line, with H2H empty and mutual opponents (2.93 goals) the only mild counter-signal. NAC sit 6th against Dordrecht's 19th, pointing to early away pressure before the game tightens. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:00 |
England Development League 2 |
Swansea U21 |
- |
Bristol City U21 |
Swansea U21 -0.75 Asian Handicap |
70% |
Swansea sit 3rd (15 pts) vs Bristol City 8th (12 pts), and the venue-matched mutual-opponent sample is strongly home: Swansea average 2.9 goals for / 1.7 against with a 6-1-3 record, while Bristol are 1.63 / 2.13 with 3-2-3; Swansea also lead the comparison on goals NET (+1.2 vs -0.5), shots (13.2 v 11.0), shots on target (6.1 v 4.4), and dangerous attacks (46.1 v 43.7). Recent AH form supports the same side, with Swansea 3W-1V-1L last five vs Bristol 2W-0V-3L, while the goal-line Over 4.0 is not supported by the 3.90 expected total and only 3/10 home and 4/10 away matches clearing that line. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:00 |
Belgium Reserve League |
RWD Molenbeek Reserves |
- |
KV Kortrijk Reserves |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
66% |
1st-half model: RWD Molenbeek score 1.00 and concede 0.70 per first half at home; KV Kortrijk score 1.30 and concede 0.60 per first half away → expected HT total (1.00+0.60)/2 + (1.30+0.70)/2 = 1.80 vs the 1.5 line, a +0.30 gap (20% above the line) — the largest line gap of any available market (FT 3.70 vs 3.5 is only +0.20 and both sides' recent in-role games went under 3.5 in 3 of 4 and 3 of 4 respectively). Kortrijk's first halves are productive (1.30 scored per away 1H; 5 of their last 8 matches over 1.5 1H, including 3, 2, 3 and 4 goals in the last four), and RWD concede 25% of their home goals inside the first 15 minutes. H2H offers only one meeting (2-0, no 1st-half split), so the H2H veto is neutral and no contrary pattern contradicts the Over. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:00 |
Malta Premier League |
Birzebbuga |
- |
Mosta FC |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals (2.75 line) |
75% |
Expected full-time total = (0.90 home scored + 2.00 Mosta conceded away)/2 + (1.30 Mosta scored away + 1.80 Birzebbuga conceded home)/2 = 1.45 + 1.55 = 3.00, which sits 0.25 above the 2.75 line, and the shots-based match potential check is even stronger: (7.8+9.3)x2 = 34.2 divided by an average goals-to-shots ratio of (8.67+7.15+5.72+6.40)/4 = 6.99 gives 4.90, comfortably clearing the line. Both sides are 6 of 10 Over 2.5 in their own venue split (Birzebbuga home totals 4,4,2,1,4,3,2,3,3,1; Mosta away totals 5,4,2,6,2,4,4,2,1,3) and Birzebbuga have scored 2+ in each of their last three matches (2-0 Marsaxlokk, 2-2 Gzira, 2-2 Birkirkara). H2H is only two matches but both produced four goals (Mosta 2-2 Birzebbuga, Mosta 0-4 Birzebbuga in a friendly), Mosta concede 2.00 per away game with 5.4 shots on target against them, and the away side's bookmaker mispricing is moderate (GL_5 1.60 vs GL_10 1.33 - accelerating and pointing the same direction as the Over). Corners were excluded as no Asian Corners line/price is posted, and the 1st half Over 1.0 only lands 20% (home) / 40% (away) which is too thin. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:30 |
Wales Championship South |
Afan Lido |
- |
Caerphilly Athletic |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total = (2.10+1.88)/2 + (1.38+2.00)/2 = 3.68 vs the 3.25 line (gap +0.43 favouring Over); shot-based match potential (36.5 total shots / 5.22 goals-to-shots ratio ≈ 7.0) also clears the line, so both models point the same way. The away side Caerphilly conceded 2+ in six of their last eight (3,3,3,2,2,3), the away leg of the Over 3.25 count is 5/8 (62.5%) with totals of 4,5,4,4,5, while Afan Lido's recent games produced 5-5, 5-0 and 2-5 (70% over 2.5, 5/10 over 3.25). Mutual-opponent goals volume is 3.83, above the line, and the home team's bookmaker mispricing is severe and accelerating (last-5 error 2.50 vs last-10 2.20, with actual goals repeatedly clearing the opener), confirming the Over direction; no H2H sample exists so it is neutral. 1st-half Over 1.25 (expected 1.70, 60% home HT history) is the secondary option but scores lower on the checklist, and the Asian corners market is unavailable (no line posted). |
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| 06-11-2026 19:30 |
Wales Championship South |
Newport City FC |
- |
Treowen Stars |
Over 3.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected goals = (1.90 home scored + 2.00 away conceded)/2 + (1.90 away scored + 2.40 home conceded)/2 = 1.95 + 2.15 = 4.10, a +0.60 edge over the 3.5 line; Newport's home games have gone Over 3.5 in 7/10 (80%, 4/5 in the last five incl. 4-4, 3-2, 4-0, 1-4) and Treowen have conceded 2+ in 9 of their last 10 away games (2,6,2,3,3,2,3,1,4,5), with both sides near 1.9 scored / 2.2 conceded. Shot-based match potential (37.8 total shots ÷ 5.19 shots/goal = 7.3) and mutual-opponent total (3.98) both clear the line, and the home market pricing error GL_5 2.25 (GL_10 1.88, accelerating) shows the bookmaker under-pricing goals. Score: base 50 + gap +12 + home history +8 + away history 0 (50%) + H2H 0 (2 games) + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + GL_5 home +4 (single-team edge) + GL_5 away 0 + structural away fragility +5 = 87, capped at standard 82 (away only 50% blocks the elevated tier), haircut to 78 for the high line; 1st-half Over 1.5 (expected 1.85) was checked but Treowen score 33% of goals at 90' and rarely in the first half, so full-time is the stronger signal. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:30 |
Belgium Reserve League |
Westerlo Reserves |
- |
KFCO Beerschot-Wilrijk Reserves |
|
68% |
Venue-matched mutual opponents are decisive: Westerlo are 6W-1D-1L (2.00 scored / 1.25 conceded, +0.75 NET) while Beerschot are 0W-0D-7L (0.57 scored / 2.29 conceded, -1.72 NET) against the same sides — 4 of 5 stat categories favour the home side, and Beerschot's actual away road trips this season were losses at RFC Liege (2-1), Kortrijk (1-0) and RAAL (3-0), scoring just once. Westerlo are 2nd (13 pts, 2.70 goals per home game) versus Beerschot 10th (6 pts) and are unbeaten in 10 home matches (7W-3D, 21 scored / 9 conceded), covering -0.75 in 5 of their last 8, and won both H2H meetings (4-1 at home, 1-0 away). The line has drifted from -1 to -0.75 which adds a little value on the home handicap; the goal-line Over 3.5 is rejected because mutual-opponent goal volume is only 3.06, both 3.5 Over histories are weak (home 3/8, away 5/9) and the away side averages just 0.57 goals away against these opponents. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Wales Championship South |
Caerau Ely |
- |
Pontypridd Utd |
Over 3.25 Goals |
78% |
Expected goals = (2.20+1.50)/2 + (2.30+1.10)/2 = 3.55, clearing the 3.25 line, with Pontypridd 6/10 over 3.25 and mutual-opponent goals averaging 3.56. Both teams show bookmaker mispricing on the goal line (GL_5 1.80 home, 1.75 away, both accelerating vs GL_10) and Pontypridd has conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games while conceding 6.14 shots on target in the mutual-opponent sample. The lone H2H 0-0 is neutral as a one-match sample, so the Over is the strongest qualifying bet. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Belgium First Division A |
Standard Liege |
- |
SK Beveren |
1st Half Over 4.5 Asian Corners |
76% |
1st-half corners project well clear of the 4.5 line: expected HT corners = (home won 3.20 + away conceded 1.90)/2 + (away won 3.30 + home conceded 2.40)/2 = 2.55 + 2.85 = 5.40 (gap +0.90). History confirms both sides: Standard Liege went Over 4.5 HT corners in 7 of their last 10 (70%) and SK Beveren in 6 of 10 (60%), meeting the Over threshold on both sides. Standard generate heavy corner volume at home (14, 13, 14, 17 total corners in recent home games; 4 of 5 over 4.5 at the break), and Beveren's leaky away shape (3+ first-half corners conceded in several away trips) supports sustained home pressure. With no H2H corners to contradict and the full-time goal line failing the history test (Standard home games 0/5 over 2.75), the 1st-half corner Over is the cleanest over-first value at 1.80. |
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| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Wales Premier League |
Trefelin BGC |
- |
Colwyn Bay |
Over 2.75 Goals |
66% |
Venue-split expected goals: Trefelin score 1.00 and concede 2.00 at home, Colwyn Bay score 2.00 and concede 0.90 away → (1.00+0.90)/2 + (2.00+2.00)/2 = 2.95, clearing the 2.75 line by 0.20. Trefelin's home defence is the structural driver: 2 GF / 17 GA in 7 league home games (0W-1D-6L) and they concede 6.5 shots on target per home game, while Colwyn Bay have put 5 past Holywell, 5 past Barry and 6 at Buckley; Trefelin's last 10 produced Over 2.75 in 6/10 (60%) with home totals of 2,4,4,1,2,2,4, and the single H2H (Colwyn Bay 2-0) plus a mutual-opponent total of 2.67 keep this capped rather than elevated. Bookmaker mispricing is only mild — home GL_5 0.85 (well calibrated), away GL_5 1.40 against GL_10 1.65 (stabilising, not accelerating) — so the edge is modest; the 5th-vs-15th quality gap (29 pts/+9 vs 6 pts/-28) is the main remaining support. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Wales Premier League |
Cambrian United |
- |
Barry Town |
Over 3.0/3.5 Goals (3.25 line) |
80% |
Expected total = (Cambrian home scored 2.00 + Barry away conceded 1.80)/2 + (Barry away scored 2.20 + Cambrian home conceded 3.10)/2 = 1.90 + 2.65 = 4.50 goals against a 3.25 line, a +1.25 gap — the largest edge on the card. Both teams' last 10 matches cleared 3.25 goals in 7 of 10 (Cambrian totals 2,5,5,1,9,7,10,4,3,4; Barry 3,4,4,1,7,4,5,1,5,6) and the likelihood models put Over 2.5 at 80% / Over 3.5 at 70%, while mutual-opponent data averages 3.65 goals per game and confirms the Over lean. Bookmaker mispricing is aligned with the Over on both sides (GL_5 2.40 home / 1.95 away, both above the 1.8 threshold with expected totals above the opening line); the 2-match H2H (2-1, 0-3) is too small a sample to veto. The 1st half line (expected 2.00 vs 1.25, only 50% Over 1.5 in both teams' recent games) is the weaker signal, so the full-time line is preferred. |
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| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Wales Premier League |
Penybont |
- |
Caernarfon Town |
Over 2.75 Goals (Over 2.5,3.0) |
80% |
Full-time expected total = (2.50 home goals scored at home + 1.30 Caernarfon conceded away)/2 + (2.90 Caernarfon goals scored away + 1.00 Penybont conceded at home)/2 = 1.90 + 1.95 = 3.85, a full 1.10 goals above the 2.75 line, and the shot-based cross-check points the same way (54.0 total shots / 6.17 goals-to-shots ratio = 8.8 match potential, far above the line). Match history is emphatic: Penybont produced 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 (3-1 Barry, 2-1 Airbus, 3-2 Briton Ferry, 5-0 Cardiff MU) and Caernarfon in 8 of 10 (3-2 at Airbus, 2-2 at Cardiff MU, 5-0 at Ammanford, 9-1 vs Cambrian), and Caernarfon have conceded 2+ in 6 of their last 8 away games — the away defensive fragility Over signal is confirmed. The 1st half was also checked (expected 1.90 vs 1.25 line) but its history is only 60%/50% Over 1.25, so full-time is the stronger, cleaner signal; the H2H is the one drag (0-0, 2-0, 1-2 = 1.67 goals/game, only 1 of 3 over the line, -5%) and is offset by the fact Caernarfon's current away scoring rate (2.90/game, 5-0 and 5-0 wins this season) is a materially different level from those meetings. Bookmaker mispricing supports the Over: home market pricing error GL_5 = 1.50 with GL_10 = 1.78 (stabilising at moderate mispricing, direction aligned), adding +5%. Score: base 50% + gap from line +15% + home history +8% + away history +10% + structural away fragility +5% + market pricing error +5% - H2H -5% - common opponents (mutual total 2.57 vs 2.75 line) -5% = 83%, capped at the standard 82% tier ceiling (elevated tier unavailable because H2H does not support), returned at 80%. |
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| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Wales Championship North |
Denbigh Town |
- |
Mold Alexandra |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is (1.70+1.70)/2 + (1.90+2.60)/2 = 3.95 vs the 3.0 line, a +0.95-goal gap. Denbigh games have produced 3+ goals in 7/9 recent matches and Mold in 6/9, the H2H was 2-1, the mutual-opponent total is 4.43, and the combined likelihood has Over 2.5 at 75% and Over 3.5 at 55%. Market pricing error is high and Over-aligned (home GL_5 2.05, away GL_5 1.70); raw score 86% capped at the 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Malta Challenge League |
Pieta Hotspurs |
- |
Zurrieq FC |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
67% |
1st-half expected total is 1.45 against a 1.25 line (Pieta HT at home 0.80 scored / 0.50 conceded; Zurrieq HT away 0.70 scored / 0.90 conceded), a +0.20 gap versus a 0.00 gap on the full-time 2.75 line, so the value sits in the first half. Pieta's last six matches produced first-half totals of 2,1,2,1,2,3 (4 of 6, 67%, above 1.25) and the two sides have combined for 19 first-half goals in 12 matches (1.58 per game), with likelihood data putting 85% on 1+ HT goals and 45% on 2+. At 2.075 the quarter-line limits a single first-half goal to a half-loss, and the low bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.05 home / 0.85 away) means this is a price-driven value pick rather than a variance play. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Northern Ireland Championship |
Strabane Athletic |
- |
Annagh United |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Strabane average 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded at home, while Annagh average 2.70 scored and 1.10 conceded away, giving an expected total of 3.25 goals against the 2.75 line. Annagh have gone Over 2.75 in 7/10 recent matches and Strabane in 6/10, with recent totals including 3-0, 5-1, 3-4 and 2-2, while Annagh's 1.95 GL_5 bookmaker mispricing (accelerating from 1.50) supports the Over despite Strabane's three blanks in their last five. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Northern Ireland Championship |
Moyola Park |
- |
Newry City |
Over 3.0 Goals |
65% |
Expected full-time total of 3.10 clears the 3.0 line: Moyola score 1.60/concede 1.40 at home and Newry score 1.60/concede 1.60 away, so (1.60+1.60)/2 + (1.60+1.40)/2 = 3.10. Mutual opponents reinforce it — Moyola average 3.00 for/1.25 against and Newry 1.67/2.00 against shared opposition, giving a mutual total of 3.96 that comfortably clears the line. Newry have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (Carrick 3, Strabane 2, Dergview 2) and allow 4.0 shots on target, while their own away attack averages 5.0 on target. Both sides sit at 60% Over 2.5 across their last 10 (6/10 each) with 70% BTTS likelihood, and the home GL_5 of 1.35 signals mild bookmaker mispricing. With the expected total within 0.15 of the line and the 3.0 line half-protecting a 3-goal result as a push, the over-first philosophy points to the Over. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Northern Ireland Premier |
Cliftonville |
- |
Larne FC |
Larne FC -0.75 Asian Handicap |
66% |
Larne sit 3rd on 26 points vs Cliftonville 5th on 18, and their away league split is 4W-1D-0L with 12 scored and only 3 conceded. Against mutual opponents Larne are 7W-1D-0L with a +1.75 goal net versus Cliftonville’s +0.90, and H2H margins of 2-0, 2-0 and 0-0 give Larne 2 of 3 positive results for -0.75. The cap comes from Larne’s poor recent AH form (0 wins in last 5), but standings and mutual-opponent signals still support the away handicap. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
England FA Cup |
Oxford City |
- |
Leicester |
Over 10.0 Asian Corners |
80% |
Expected corners are 11.50 versus the 10.0 line: (6.10+5.30)/2 + (7.70+3.90)/2 = 11.50, a 1.5-corner gap. Oxford City home corner totals were 9,16,12,5,14 (3/5 over 10) and Leicester away totals were 17,9,14,17,9 (3/5 over 10), so both meet the Over threshold. H2H is empty and mutual opponents are neutral; the structural read is a cross-league quality gap with Leicester’s away attacking pressure and Oxford’s home corner generation. Confidence scoring: Base 50 + expected gap +15 + home history +5 + away history +5 + H2H +0 + structural +5 = 80%. |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
Glebe North FC |
- |
St Mochtas |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
76% |
St Mochtas are the key driver: away from home they average 1.70 first-half goals scored vs 0.50 conceded (2.20 combined HT goals per away game) and have gone Over 1.5 first-half goals in 8 of 10 away matches, scoring in the first half in 90% of games (frequently 2-3 goals by the break, e.g. 0-3 HT at Bangor and Lucan). Glebe North concede 1.20 first-half goals per home game, giving an expected HT total of (0.50+0.50)/2 + (1.70+1.20)/2 = 1.95, which sits 0.45 above the 1.5 line; the dominant away side (1.28 to win) presses early per its scoring-minute profile (35.7% of goals before minute 15). Confidence scored: base 50% + gap from line +9% + away HT history (80%) +10% + home HT history (57%, below 60%) +0% + H2H (empty) +0% + early-scoring structural +8% + quality-gap pressing +5% = 82%, tempered to 76% for empirical/Poisson reconciliation (home's 0.50 first-half scoring is a real floor risk). |
|
| 06-11-2026 19:45 |
Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
Malahide Utd |
- |
St Francis FC |
Over 3.5 Goals |
66% |
A1 expected total from venue splits = (1.40+2.40)/2 + (1.60+1.20)/2 = 1.90 + 1.40 = 3.30, and the Match Potential cross-check (avg_total_shots 47.4 / shot ratio 7.20 = 6.59) plus the mutual-opponent total of 4.13 (home 3.00 scored/1.00 conceded vs away 1.63/2.63 over 8 games) both clear the 3.5 line, and actual match history confirms scoring: St Francis away games average 4.5 total, going over 2.5 in 10/10 and over 3.5 in 5/10, while Malahide home games average 3.5 total (over 3.5 in 5/10, over 2.5 in 8/10). St Francis's away defence is structurally fragile — conceding 2+ in 8 of 10 away games and averaging 2.40 conceded, with a mutual-opponent c_avg_on_target of 7.0 (high shots conceded / weak keeper Over signal) — and bookmaker mispricing is elevated and accelerating on the away side (GL_5 1.80 vs GL_10 1.53) and home side (GL_5 1.60 vs GL_10 1.20), meaning the 3.5 opening line is unreliable in a game whose true total sits around 3.9-4.0. H2H is empty (neutral), so the Over case rests on the confirmed defensive fragility, mutual-opponent goal volume, and high line volatility rather than a coin-flip 3.5 history. |
|
| 06-11-2026 20:00 |
Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
Crumlin United |
- |
Tolka Rovers |
Over 3.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time goals are 4.15: (1.80 home scored + 2.30 away conceded)/2 + (1.20 away scored + 3.00 home conceded)/2, giving a +0.65 gap over the 3.5 line; the 1st-half model is 2.00 vs the 1.5 line, so full-time has the larger edge. Tolka Rovers conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches (3-3, 5-0, 3-0), and the bookmaker mispricing is strong (GL_5: Crumlin 1.60, Tolka 2.00, with Tolka accelerating vs GL_10 1.78). Recent totals were 4/7 Over 3.5 for Crumlin and 4/10 for Tolka, with a shot-based match potential of 6.65, supporting the Over despite modest history agreement. |
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