| 26-10-2026 09:00 |
Myanmar League Women |
Yangon United FC Women |
- |
Ispe FC Women |
Over 3.5 Corners (1st Half) |
65% |
Expected 1st-half corners = (home 2.70 + away-conceded 1.60)/2 + (away 2.10 + home-conceded 1.50)/2 = 3.95, clearing the 3.5 line by ~0.45. Corner history backs it: home's home games went over 3.5 HT corners in 4/7 (57%) and away's away games in 4/6 (67%), and both sides generate heavy pressure (away 14.6 shots and 86.6 dangerous attacks/game, home 11.3 shots) while Ispe FC Women arrive dominant (10 wins in last 10, scoring 4-0 and 10-0 in recent away games) — sustained attacking that produces corners. Mutual-opponent data shows high combined dangerous-attack volume (home 84.8, away 86.6) confirming the pressure proxy, and the full-time goal line is a poor over (expected only (2.10+0.40)/2+(1.80+1.00)/2 = 2.65 vs a 3.0 line with ~50-57% over history), so the corners market is the cleanest over that agrees with its own primary calculation. |
|
| 26-10-2026 12:00 |
Indonesia Super League |
Persija Jakarta |
- |
Persik Kediri |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
68% |
Expected 1st-half total is (0.70+0.60)/2 + (1.10+0.60)/2 = 1.50, exactly the 1.5 line, and over-first rules favour the Over when the gap is within 0.15. Persik's away 1H matches went Over 1.5 in 6/10, with 64.3% of their goals scored in the first 30 minutes, while Persija's home 1H average is 0.70 scored and 0.60 conceded. Persija's 1H over rate is only 4/10, but the 1st-vs-8th quality gap and early-scoring pattern lift the signal; H2H 1H sample is just one match (1-1), so it is neutral. |
|
| 26-10-2026 12:00 |
Indonesia Super League |
Bhayangkara FC |
- |
PSM Makassar |
Over 2.75 Goals |
75% |
Expected total from venue splits is 3.50 — (1.80+1.90)/2 + (1.40+1.90)/2 = 1.85+1.65 — sitting 0.75 above the 2.75 line, with the shot-based cross-check (24.8 combined shots / 6.53 shots-per-goal ≈ 3.8) also clearing the line. Match history is strongly Over: Bhayangkara 7/10 and PSM 8/10 of their last 10 went Over 2.75, and mutual-opponent goals volume is 3.03 ((2.3+1.2+0.89+1.67)/2 = 3.03) vs the 2.75 line, while PSM have conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games (3,3,3,2). Bookmaker mispricing is accelerating for both sides (home GL_5 1.80 > GL_10 1.70; away GL_5 1.60 > GL_10 1.25) and points in the Over direction; the lone H2H (PSM 2-1 = 3 goals, Over) is a 1-game sample so treated as neutral-supportive. The 1st-half line has no edge (expected 1.30 vs 1.25 with PSM failing to reach HT Over 1.25 in 8 of 10), so full-time Over is the clear value. |
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| 26-10-2026 13:00 |
Austria Landesliga |
TSV Grafenstein |
- |
ATUS Ferlach |
Over 3.25 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time goals are (2.80 + 2.30)/2 + (1.50 + 1.20)/2 = 3.90, which is 0.65 above the 3.25 line. TSV Grafenstein have scored 31 goals in their last 10 and are 6/10 over 3.25, while ATUS Ferlach have conceded 30 goals across their last 10 away matches and conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away; mutual opponents also produced 4.07 total goals on average, supporting Over. H2H is empty, and bookmaker mispricing is not severe (GL_5 1.30 home, 1.45 away), but the goal-volume and away defensive-fragility signals are strong enough for Over 3.25. |
|
| 26-10-2026 13:00 |
England Development League 2 |
Swansea U21 |
- |
Charlton U21 |
Over 1.75 Goals (1st Half) |
68% |
1st-half expected total = (1.00+0.80)/2 + (1.10+0.70)/2 = 1.80 vs the 1.5/2.0 (1.75) half line — a positive gap, whereas the full-time picture is negative (3.45 expected vs a 4.0 line, -0.55), so the value sits in the half. 2+ first-half goals landed in 6 of 10 for Swansea (HT totals 3,2,3,3,0,1,2,2,1,2) and 6 of 10 for Charlton (3,1,1,0,3,2,1,4,2,2), and Charlton have scored before the break in 80% of away games with Swansea doing so in 70% at home (Swansea 50% and Charlton 52.6% of all goals come before half-time). H2H is only 2 matches (6-0, 3-0) so it is neutral, and mutual-opponent goal volume (2.3+1.7+1.67+2.33)/2 = 4.00 gives no Under case; opening goal line mispricing is moderate with both sides accelerating (1.50 and 1.70 last-5 vs 1.28 last-10), which points to an unreliable opening line. Score: Base 50% + gap from line +0% + home HT history 60% +5% + away HT history 60% +5% + H2H HT +0% + early-scoring structural +5% + bookmaker mispricing +5% (direction aligns with HT line) = 70%, trimmed to 68% for reproducibility. |
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| 26-10-2026 14:00 |
England Development League 2 |
Sheff Utd U21 |
- |
Fleetwood Town U21 |
Fleetwood Town U21 +1.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Fleetwood +1.25 has covered in 9 of their last 10 matches (5/5 in the last five), including 1-1 draws vs Wolves and Barnsley and one-goal losses to Burnley/Preston where the cushion still covers. They sit above Sheff Utd in the table (2nd vs 4th), and the only H2H is a 1-1 draw; the mutual-opponent stats lean to Sheff Utd, but Fleetwood only need to avoid a 2+ goal defeat. The goal-line expected total is 3.00 vs a 3.75 line, so I am not backing the Over at this high line. |
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| 26-10-2026 15:00 |
Armenia Premier League |
Ararat Armenia |
- |
FC Noah |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected FT total from venue splits is (1.30+0.90)/2 + (2.50+1.50)/2 = 3.10, above the 2.75 line; both teams are 6/10 Over 2.5 in recent matches and H2H totals (4,0,1,3) are neutral. Mutual opponents produce 2.825 total goals, and Noah's GL_5 of 1.55 is moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with Over (GL_10 1.60, stabilising); confidence breakdown: base 50 + gap +5 + home history +5 + away history +5 + H2H +0 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + GL_5 home +0 + GL_5 away +2.5 + structural +0 = 75.5% -> 76%. |
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| 26-10-2026 16:00 |
Lithuania 1 Lyga |
FK Transinvest II |
- |
FK Siauliai II |
Over 3.25 Goals |
76% |
Expected goals calculate to (1.60+2.20)/2 + (1.70+1.80)/2 = 3.65, above the 3.25 line. Siauliai II's away defence is structurally fragile: they conceded 2+ in 8 of 10 away games and 3+ in 6, while allowing 6.9 shots on target against mutual opponents; the 3.25 line also has severe away-side bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 2.80, accelerating vs GL_10 2.18). Mutual-opponent total is 3.6 goals, and although Transinvest II's 3.25-over history is only 3/10, Siauliai II is 5/10 and the pressure/defensive-fragility signals point Over. |
|
| 26-10-2026 17:00 |
Estonia Esiliiga |
Viimsi JK |
- |
FC Flora Tallinn II |
Viimsi JK -0.75 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Viimsi are 2nd on 59 points (+29 GD) versus Flora II 3rd on 54 (+19), and the venue-matched mutual-opponent comparison leans home 4-1 on classified stats, with goals NET +0.50 for Viimsi versus -0.37 for Flora II and W/D/L 3-2-5 versus 1-3-4. Recent AH cover is only about 50% (3 full covers plus 1 half in the last 8), so confidence is capped, but two of the three AH signals (standings and mutual opponents) support the -0.75 line. Goal-line Over 3.5 did not clear the evidence bar: expected goals are 3.70, only +0.20 above the line, with Viimsi 4/10 and Flora II 5/10 Over 3.5 and H2H 1/3 Over 3.5. |
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| 26-10-2026 17:00 |
Malta Premier League |
Floriana |
- |
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
Over 2.75 Goals (Over 2.5,3.0) |
74% |
Expected full-time total = (2.00+1.50)/2 + (1.00+1.60)/2 = 3.05, sitting 0.30 above the 2.75 line, and the shot-based cross-check also clears it (18.9 shots x2 / 6.65 ratio = 5.68 potential). Floriana's last 10 produced 6/10 over 2.5 (3-3 Mosta, 2-5 Marsaxlokk, 4-1 Gzira, 0-4 at Hibernians) and St Patrick have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games while allowing 4.9 shots on target per away match, a genuine defensive-fragility Over signal. H2H backs it (0-3 and 2-4, both clearing 2.5), mutual-opponent goals volume is 3.08 against the same opposition, and the bookmaker's home goal-line pricing error is 2.05 in the last 5 (accelerating vs 1.38 over 10) pointing in the Over direction. Confidence: Base 50% + gap from line +5% + home history 60% +5% + away history 50% +0% + H2H neutral (2 matches) +0% + common opponents +5% + likelihood 50% neutral +0% + home GL_5 partial +4% + away GL_5 (1.30, mild) +0% + structural away fragility +5% = 74%. Corners Over 9.5 (expected 9.80, history 60%/50%) scored only 63% and HT Over 1.0 (expected 1.45 vs line 1.0, history 4/10 each) scored 64% — both below threshold, so the full-time goal line is the strongest play. |
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| 26-10-2026 17:30 |
Bulgaria First League |
CSKA Sofia |
- |
Ludogorets Razgrad |
Over 2.5 Goals |
76% |
Full-time expected goals: (2.30+0.70)/2 + (2.60+1.20)/2 = 3.40 vs line 2.50, gap +0.90. CSKA Sofia are 6/10 Over 2.5 and Ludogorets 7/10; mutual-opponent total 2.68 supports Over. H2H is 1/4 Over 2.5 (75% contradiction), so I applied the -10% H2H override; the specific structural reason to stay Over is that current-season attacking profiles differ sharply from those April-May H2H games (CSKA 2.30 home goals, Ludogorets 2.60 away goals). Confidence: base 50 + gap +15 + home history +5 + away history +8 - H2H 10 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + GL_5 home 1.00 +0 + GL_5 away 1.00 +0 + structural +0 = 76%. |
|
| 26-10-2026 18:00 |
Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
UAI Urquiza |
- |
Villa San Carlos |
Villa San Carlos +1 (Asian Handicap) |
68% |
UAI Urquiza rarely win big at home: in their last 5 home games their margins were 1-0, 3-2 (by one), 1-2, 2-0, 0-2 — they won by 2+ only once (20%), giving Villa San Carlos +1 a ~40% full win / 40% push / 20% loss profile that shows strong positive value at 2.025. VSC cover the handicap well (AH 7-0-3 last 10, 4-0-1 last 5) and have lost by 2+ only once in their last 10 (the 4-0 at Excursionistas), while venue-split expected goals actually favour the visitors (VSC ~1.10 scored vs UAI ~0.85), and the lone H2H was a 0-0 draw. Standings support the underdog side too (VSC 12th/50pts vs UAI 21st/relegation/39pts), giving 2 of 3 AH signals; the goal-line and corner markets fail to qualify (Over 2.25 blocked by 40%/20% over rates, Under 2.25 blocked by home 60% under-rate, and no corner line is posted). |
|
| 26-10-2026 18:05 |
Sweden Superettan |
Orebro SK |
- |
Falkenbergs FF |
Over 2.75 Goals |
74% |
Expected total = (1.90+1.30)/2 + (2.10+1.50)/2 = 3.40 vs the 2.75 line (gap +0.65); Falkenberg (2nd, 2.10 scored/away game) have gone over 2.5 in 7 of their last 10 and scored in 9 of 10 away games, while Orebro's last 10 matches produced 6 over 2.5 (last three home: 1-1, 1-1, 1-3) and the venue-split history is Over-friendly both ways (60%/70%). Mutual-opponent goals volume is 2.95, just above the line, and the 3-2 home stat lean doesn't contradict Over; bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 1.25 home, 1.10 away, both stabilising) so no variance bonus is claimed, and the single H2H (1-1) is too small a sample to veto. Structural support comes from the table gap (2nd vs 15th, Orebro in the relegation zone) and both sides needing points, making a 3-goal game the base case with 4-5 goals live given Falkenberg's away record (2.10 scored, and 3.2 total goals per away game). |
|
| 26-10-2026 19:00 |
Paraguay Division Intermedia |
Resistencia FC |
- |
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval |
Over 2.75 Goals |
79% |
Expected goals are 2.90 vs the 2.75 line: (1.20+2.00)/2 + (1.30+1.30)/2. Resistencia have gone over 2.75 in 7/10 recent matches and Club Dr Benjamin Aceval in 6/10, while Aceval conceded 2+ in each of their last five away games (3,2,2,2,2) and the venue-matched mutual-opponent total is 2.80. Confidence scoring: base 50 + gap +3 + home history +8 + away history +5 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + away defensive fragility +5 = 79%; home GL_5 0.55 is well calibrated and away GL_5 1.10 is only mild bookmaker mispricing. |
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| 26-10-2026 19:30 |
Malta Premier League |
Mosta FC |
- |
Hibernians |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
66% |
1st-half expected goals calculate to 1.35 — (0.70+0.80)/2 + (0.50+0.70)/2 — which is 0.35 above the 1.0 line, and the push protection is strong: Mosta had at least one first-half goal in 9/10 recent matches, Hibernians in 8/9, with only 1/10 and 1/9 blank first halves respectively. H2H first-half data is unavailable/neutral, while home market pricing error is moderate and accelerating (GL_5 1.50 vs GL_10 1.10) in the Over direction; the full-time Over 2.5 is vetoed by all three H2H matches finishing under 2.5, making the 1st-half Over the better edge. |
|
| 26-10-2026 19:30 |
France Ligue 1 |
PSG |
- |
Lyon |
PSG -1.5 (Asian Handicap) |
67% |
PSG have covered -1.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches (4-2 Barcelona, 3-1 Strasbourg, 4-2 Man City, 3-1 Le Mans), and their Asian handicap record is 4W-1L in the last five versus Lyon's 2W-1V-2L. Venue-matched mutual opponents also lean PSG: +1.4 goals NET (2.4 for, 1.0 against) vs Lyon's +0.88, with PSG ahead on 4 of 5 comparison stats. H2H is only two matches, both one-goal margins, so treated as neutral; the 2.025 price offers the strongest qualifying edge. |
|
| 26-10-2026 21:30 |
Paraguay Division Intermedia |
Deportivo Capiata |
- |
Tacuary |
Over 2.75 Goals |
71% |
Expected goals = (1.20+1.80)/2 + (1.20+1.30)/2 = 2.75, exactly the 2.75 line, so the over-first rule prefers Over. Tacuary's last 10 matches were 6/10 over 2.5 and they concede 1.80 away with 5.1 shots on target conceded; mutual-opponent total is 2.9, and their GL_5 is 2.30 (accelerating vs GL_10 1.45), though only one 0-0 H2H is neutral. Compact score: base 50 + gap 0 + home history 0 + away history +5 + H2H 0 + mutual opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 0 + structural away fragility +5 + form momentum +3 = 71%. |
|
| 26-10-2026 22:05 |
Jamaica Premier League |
Arnett Gardens |
- |
Molynes United FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
80% |
Expected total = (1.50+2.10)/2 + (1.30+1.40)/2 = 3.15, sitting 0.40 above the 2.75 line (2.5/3.0); Arnett Gardens have gone Over 2.5 in 6 of their last 8 (75%) while Molynes are 4 of 8 (50%), and the shot-based match potential (35.6 total shots / 6.41 shots-per-goal ratio = 5.55) also clears the line. The venue-matched mutual-opponent sample totals 2.98 goals per game (h 1.90/0.80, a 1.63/1.63) and Molynes have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches, confirming the structural Over case, while both sides carry moderate bookmaker mispricing pointing the same way (Arnett GL_5 1.55 accelerating vs GL_10 1.35; Molynes GL_5 1.80). H2H is only 2 matches (3-0 and 0-0) so it is neutral and triggers no veto; the sole counter-signal is Molynes' away scoring drought (scored in just 1 of their last 5 away), which is why confidence is held at 80%. Breakdown: base 50 + gap from line +8 + home history +8 + away history 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents +5 + likelihood 0 + market pricing error home +5 + away +5 + structural (away defensive fragility) +5 - drought -3 = 83, capped at the standard evidence tier ceiling of 82 and set to 80 for the away scoring drag. |
|
| 27-10-2026 19:45 |
England Isthmian Premier Division |
Workington |
- |
Cleethorpes Town |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time total is 3.25 goals: Workington score 1.50 and concede 2.20 at home, while Cleethorpes score 1.80 and concede 1.00 away, giving (1.50+1.00)/2 + (1.80+2.20)/2 = 3.25 vs the 2.75 line. Workington are 7/9 over 2.75 at home and Cleethorpes 6/10 over 2.75 recently; H2H is a caution (1-1, 1-1, 2-1), but Cleethorpes have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games and the likelihood model has over 2.5 at 70%, while 1st-half expected goals is only 1.00 vs a 1.25 line. Market pricing error is mild (GL_5 0.95 home, 1.20 away), so the edge is structural/history rather than bookmaker mispricing. |
|
| 27-10-2026 19:45 |
Northern Ireland Cup Women |
Glentoran Women |
- |
Cliftonville Women |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 4.00 goals: Glentoran scored 2.10 and conceded 2.00 at home, while Cliftonville scored 3.30 and conceded 0.60 away. That is 0.75 goals above the 3.25 line, with 7/10 home matches and 6/10 away matches going Over 3.25, plus 3/4 H2H Over (4-1, 1-2, 3-1, 4-0). Mutual opponents averaged 4.865 total goals, and bookmaker mispricing is strong for Glentoran (GL_5 1.95, accelerating from 1.85) and moderate for Cliftonville (GL_5 1.50, up from 1.18), both supporting Over. Confidence: base 50% + gap +15% + home history +8% + away history +5% + H2H +5% + GL_5 home +8% = 91% raw, capped at the 82% standard ceiling because away history is 60% (not 70%+). |
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