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Hora	Casa	Puntuación	Visitante	Bet	Probability	Reasoning
17-04-2026 07:00	Tahiti United	-	Vanuatu United	Over 2.75 Goals	78%	Expected total goals of 3.39 based on home attack (1.78) and away defense (1.56), away attack (1.44) and home defense (2.00) strongly exceeds the 2.75 line. Home team's last 5 matches went Over 2.75 in 80% (4/5), away team in 60% (3/5), and the only H2H match produced 4 goals. Structural signals include away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away) and significant bookmaker mispricing for the home team (GL_5=1.85), indicating consistent underestimation of goals in their matches.
17-04-2026 08:30	Bhayangkara FC	-	PSIM Yogyakarta	Over 2.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals 3.25 from home averages (2.20 scored, 1.30 conceded) and away averages (1.30 scored, 1.70 conceded). Home matches went Over 2.5 in 8 of last 10 (80%), away matches 7 of 10 (70%). Structural signals: away team conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches, home team scored 2+ in last 3 home matches, and significant bookmaker mispricing on away team's goal line (GL_5=2.00) aligning with Over.
17-04-2026 08:30	Holland Park Hawks U23	-	Capalaba Bulldogs U23	Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	85%	Expected 1st half goals calculated at 1.85 (home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded; away: 0.90 scored, 0.80 conceded), 0.60 above the 1.25 line. Recent 1st half form is strong: Holland Park's last 3 home matches all over 1.25 (3, 6, 2 total goals), and Capalaba's last 2 away matches both over 1.25 (5 and 3 total goals). Both teams show 100% over 1.25 in these matches, indicating a consistent early-scoring pattern.
17-04-2026 08:45	Bunga Raya	-	Perlis GSA	Over 2.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals of 3.25 (home avg 1.30 scored + away avg 2.60 conceded) exceeds the line by 0.50, supported by match history: 5 of Bunga Raya's last 8 matches and 7 of Perlis GSA's last 9 matches went Over 2.75 goals. The lone H2H meeting had 3 goals. Perlis GSA shows defensive fragility, conceding 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches, and home team's market pricing error (GL_5 of 1.50) indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing favoring Over.
17-04-2026 09:00	Van Hien University	-	Ho Chi Minh City	Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half)	85%	Expected 1st half goals: 1.35 (0.60 above the 0.75 line). Van Hien University at home has seen 3 of their last 4 home matches with Over 0.75 1st half goals, while Ho Chi Minh City away has seen 4 of their last 5 away matches with Over 0.75 1st half goals. Both teams have early scoring patterns, with Van Hien University scoring 41.67% of their goals in the first 15 minutes and Ho Chi Minh City scoring 27.27% in the first 30 minutes.
17-04-2026 09:30	Langwarrin	-	Bulleen Lions	Over 3.0 Goals	72%	Expected total goals of 3.45 from Langwarrin averaging 1.20 goals scored at home and Bulleen Lions conceding 1.60 away, with 67% of Langwarrin's recent home matches and 50% of Bulleen's away matches exceeding 3.0 goals. Bulleen's away defence allows 5.10 shots on target on average, and H2H shows 2 of 4 matches had over 3 goals, supported by mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.30) indicating goals are underestimated.
17-04-2026 09:30	Box Hill United	-	Eastern Lions	Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	68%	Expected 1st half goals are 1.75 (based on home scoring 1.00 and conceding 0.70 at home, away scoring 0.90 and conceding 0.90 away), significantly above the line of 1.25. Market pricing error is strong with home GL_5 of 1.85, indicating bookmaker mispricing for goals that aligns with the over direction. Although home 1st half history shows 0% Over in 3 matches, the over-first philosophy and away team's 50% Over support the bet given the expected edge.
17-04-2026 09:45	Dandenong City	-	Green Gully	Under 1.25 Goals 1st Half	90%	Expected 1st half goals only 0.75 based on home averages (0.20 scored, 0.30 conceded) and away averages (0.30 scored, 0.70 conceded). Home team's last 9 matches saw 88.9% finish with 1st half goals under 1.25, away team 85.7% in their last 7 matches. Structural signals: both teams are low 1st half scorers (0.20 and 0.30 avg) and Green Gully failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 4 away matches. No contradictory H2H half-time data.
17-04-2026 09:45	Kingston City	-	Essendon Royals	Over 3.0 Goals	76%	Expected total goals is 4.15, calculated from home averages (1.50 scored, 2.30 conceded) and away averages (2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded), well above the 3.0 line. The away team has a 50% Over rate in away matches, and likelihood data shows an 80% probability for Over 2.5 goals. Additionally, the away team has a high bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 of 2.00), indicating consistent underestimation of goals in their matches, adding edge to the Over bet.
17-04-2026 10:00	Broadmeadow Magic	-	Cooks Hill United	Over 3.5 Goals	81%	Expected total goals of 4.00 (home averages 1.80 scored and 1.90 conceded at home, away averages 1.60 scored and 2.70 conceded away) exceeds the line of 3.5 by 0.50 goals. Broadmeadow Magic have seen Over 3.5 goals in 60% of their last 5 home matches, including 2+ goals scored in each of their last three. Cooks Hill United's away defence is fragile, conceding 2.70 goals on average, and moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.55) for the away team aligns with an Over bet.
17-04-2026 10:00	Croydon FC	-	West Torrens Birkalla	Over 1.5 Goals 1st Half	65%	Expected 1st half goals total is 1.20 based on home scoring 0.40 and conceding 0.60 per match at home, and away scoring 0.80 and conceding 0.60 per match away. Home team has seen 3 of their last 5 home matches (60%) go over 1.5 goals in the first half, while away team has 50% over in recent away matches. Structural factors include away team's top-of-the-league status and tendency to press early, adding to over confidence. The 1st half line of 1.5 offers value with expected goals slightly below but within range for over given historical trends.
17-04-2026 10:00	Sanna Khanh Hoa	-	Cong An HCMC II	Over 2.0,2.5 Goals	72%	Expected total goals (2.30) slightly exceed the 2.25 line, driven by Cong An HCMC II's defensive fragility (conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 away matches). Away team's recent away history shows 80% of matches Over 2.25, and the away side has severe market pricing error (GL_5: 2.20) pointing to consistent bookmaker underestimation. Home team averages only 0.5 goals at home, but faces the league's worst defense (2.6 goals conceded away on average).
17-04-2026 10:00	Bankstown City Lions FC	-	Hills United FC	Bankstown City Lions FC -0.5 Asian Handicap	67%	Bankstown City Lions FC holds a 4-point standings advantage (4th with 18 points vs 8th with 14 points) and has covered the -0.5 Asian Handicap in 3 of their last 5 matches overall. In recent home games, they have covered in 3 of 4, including wins over Bulls FC Academy (2-1) and Blacktown Spartans (3-1), while Hills United has failed to cover in away losses to common opponents like Blacktown Spartans (4-1).
17-04-2026 10:15	Blacktown Spartans	-	Prospect United	Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	69%	Expected 1st half goals total is 1.55, calculated from home scoring 0.70 and away conceding 1.30 on average in the first half, above the 1.25 line. Away team has 75% of recent away matches finishing Over the 1st half line, and their defensive fragility is clear with 3+ goals conceded in 3 of last 4 away matches. Home team's top-of-the-table dominance supports early attacking pressure.
17-04-2026 10:15	Eastern United	-	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	Over 1.5 1st Half Goals	76%	Expected first-half goals of 2.15 significantly exceed the line of 1.5, with Eastern United's home matches going Over 1.5 in 5 of 7 games (71%) and Adelaide Croatia Raiders averaging 1.00 goals scored in first halves away. The away team leads the league and applies early pressure, while Eastern United concedes 1.80 avg first-half goals at home, supporting a high-scoring start.
17-04-2026 10:30	Namdhari FC	-	Chanmari FC	Over 2.5 Goals	73%	Expected total goals of 2.90 based on home avg 1.30 goals scored at home and away avg 1.50 conceded away, combined with away team conceding 2+ goals in 3 of last 4 away matches. Additionally, bookmaker mispricing is severe for home team with GL_5 of 2.30, indicating consistent underestimation of goals in their matches.
17-04-2026 10:30	Northcote City	-	Port Melbourne SC	Under 3.5 Goals	84%	Expected total goals calculated at 3.15, below the line of 3.5, with a gap of 0.35 goals. Match history strongly supports Under: home team has seen Under 3.5 in 4 of last 6 matches, away team in 6 of last 7. Structural signals include away team's scoring drought (failed to score in 3 of last 5 away matches) and low away attack (averaging 0.70 goals away), while bookmaker mispricing is high for away team's goal lines (GL_5 of 1.90), aligning with the Under direction.
17-04-2026 10:30	Melbourne Knights	-	Manningham United Blues	Melbourne Knights -0.75	68%	Melbourne Knights (3rd, 21 pts) have a 6-point standings advantage over Manningham United Blues (5th, 15 pts) and have covered -0.75 in 66.7% of recent matches (6/9), including both H2H meetings (1-0 and 2-1 wins). Manningham's Asian Handicap record is weak with only 1 win in their last 5 non-void matches (25%).
17-04-2026 11:00	Adelaide Comets	-	Playford	Over 3.25 Goals	68%	Expected total goals of 3.90 (based on home avg scored 1.30, conceded 2.30 and away avg scored 2.10, conceded 2.10) is 0.65 above the 3.25 line. Away team Playford averages 2.10 goals away, and common opponents like White City FK Beograd saw high-scoring matches (5 and 4 total goals). Home team's scoring drought in 3 of last 5 home matches is offset by away team's strong attack and mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 of 1.35 for home team) supporting Over.
17-04-2026 11:00	Qingdao Hainiu	-	Qingdao West Coast	Over 2.5 Goals	70%	Expected total goals is 3.05 from home averaging 1.40 goals scored at home and away conceding 1.80 away, with away defensive fragility conceding 2+ goals in 3 of last 4 away matches. Market mispricing (GL_5 1.65 for home and 1.50 for away) aligns with Over, and H2H is neutral with 2 Overs and 2 Unders.
17-04-2026 11:30	Tampines Rovers FC	-	Balestier Khalsa FC	Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half)	81%	Expected 1st half goals of 2.3 exceeds the line of 1.5 by 0.8, with Tampines scoring Over 1.5 in 75% of recent home first halves (3 of 4). Home team's strong attacking form (2+ goals in each of last 4 home matches) and Balestier's defensive fragility in the first half (conceding 1.40 on average away) support early goals.
17-04-2026 11:30	Chennaiyin FC	-	Sporting Club Delhi	Over 2.5 Goals	68%	Expected total goals is 2.70 based on Chennaiyin averaging 0.60 scored at home and Delhi conceding 1.90 away, with Delhi scoring 1.20 away and Chennaiyin conceding 1.70 at home. Chennaiyin have seen Over 2.5 in 75% of recent home matches, while Delhi have Over 2.5 in 71% of away matches, and Delhi's defence conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away games. Bookmaker mispricing is low with GL_5 below 1.0 for both teams.
17-04-2026 11:35	Shandong Taishan	-	Shanghai Port	Under 3.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals 2.60 from home averages (2.00 scored, 1.30 conceded) and away averages (0.80 scored, 1.10 conceded). Home team has seen Under 3.5 in 4 of last 5 home matches (80%), away team in all 4 away matches (100%), with away team failing to score in 3 of 4 away games. H2H shows 2 Over and 2 Under 3.5, neutral.
17-04-2026 12:00	Persebaya Surabaya	-	Madura United	Over 2.5 Goals	78%	Expected total goals of 3.10 (based on Persebaya averaging 1.40 scored at home and Madura conceding 2.20 away) exceeds the 2.5 line, with both teams showing 70% Over rates in their last 10 matches. Madura United has conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away games, highlighting defensive fragility, and Persebaya benefits from moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=1.60) toward Over. Despite H2H leaning Under, Madura's relegation struggles and recent away defensive collapses override that historical pattern.
17-04-2026 12:00	Wuhan Three Towns	-	Chengdu Rongcheng	Over 2.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals is 3.75 based on home scoring 1.40 and conceding 2.70 at home, away scoring 2.10 and conceding 1.30 away. Recent match history shows 62.5% of home matches and 70% of away matches over 2.5 goals. Away team has conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. High bookmaker mispricing with GL_5 of 2.20 for the away team suggests consistent underestimation of goals in their matches.
17-04-2026 12:00	Zhejiang	-	Beijing Guoan	Under 3.25 Goals	76%	Expected total goals calculated at 3.15 from home avg scored 1.70/conceded 1.90 and away avg scored 1.60/conceded 1.10. Match history strongly supports Under: Zhejiang's last 4 home matches saw 75% under 3.25 goals, while Beijing Guoan's last 5 away matches had 100% under. Head-to-head matches are 75% under 3.25 goals (3 of 4), and likelihood data indicates a 75% probability for under 3.5 goals.
17-04-2026 12:00	Yunnan Yukun	-	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	Yunnan Yukun -0.75 Asian Handicap	70%	Home team Yunnan Yukun is 3rd in the league with 9 points, facing bottom-placed Tianjin Jinmen Tigers (-8 points), indicating a significant quality gap. Yunnan has a strong Asian Handicap record with 3 wins in their last 5 AH matches, while Tianjin has lost all 5 of their last AH matches. In recent home games, Yunnan has covered similar handicaps with wins like 4-0, 3-1, and 2-0, and head-to-head results show Yunnan winning both league encounters against Tianjin, supporting the handicap cover.
17-04-2026 12:00	SC Kiryat Yam	-	Hapoel Afula	Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	73%	Expected 1st half goals are 0.85 based on home scoring 0.50 and conceding 0.40 at home, and away scoring 0.40 and conceding 0.40 on the road. Home team's recent matches have seen Under 1.0 in 70% of first halves, while away team has 90% Under 1.0. Both teams average below 0.5 goals in the first half, reinforcing a low-scoring pattern.
17-04-2026 12:00	Maccabi Herzliya	-	Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv	Over 2.5 Goals	71%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.90 based on home averages (1.60 scored, 1.30 conceded) and away averages (1.60 scored, 1.30 conceded), well above the 2.5 line. Home team's last 5 matches saw 60% Over 2.5, and H2H history shows 100% Over in the last 4 meetings (all 5+ goals). Away team's goal line mispricing (GL_5 of 1.25) indicates mild bookmaker error in their matches, further supporting an Over.
17-04-2026 12:00	Hapoel Rishon Lezion	-	Maccabi Petach Tikva	Over 2.5 Goals	68%	Expected total goals of 3.05 based on home avg 1.70 goals scored at home and away avg 2.30 goals scored away, exceeding the 2.75 line. H2H shows 75% Over 2.5 (3 of 4 matches), and away team's goal line mispricing (GL_5 1.55) indicates bookmaker error favoring Over. Both teams have 50% Over in last 10 matches, but recent common opponent matches (e.g., vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem) produced high totals.
17-04-2026 12:00	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	-	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	Over 3.0 Goals	76%	Expected total goals of 3.15 exceeds the line of 3.0, driven by home averages of 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded at home, and away averages of 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded away. Home team shows 60% Over 3.0 in last 10 matches, H2H strongly supports with 75% Over 3.0, and structural signals include home form surge (2+ goals in last 3 home matches) and a quality gap (4th vs 10th). Moderate bookmaker mispricing with home GL_5 of 1.50 adds edge for Over.
17-04-2026 12:00	Hapoel Kfar Saba	-	Hapoel Akko	Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	73%	Historical first-half trends strongly support Under: Hapoel Kfar Saba has seen Under 1.0 goals in 7 of their last 10 first halves (70%), while Hapoel Akko has 8 of 10 (80%). Both teams average low first-half scoring (home 0.40, away 0.50 goals per half), and the expected first-half total of 1.15 is only slightly above the line, but the consistent defensive patterns in recent matches outweigh this. No head-to-head first-half data is available, but the team-specific histories provide clear evidence for a low-scoring start.
17-04-2026 12:00	Hapoel Ramat Gan	-	Hapoel Hadera	Over 2.75 Goals	68%	Expected total goals are 2.85 based on home avg 1.80 goals scored at home and away avg 2.00 goals conceded away. Away team shows defensive fragility, conceding 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches, and 60% of their away matches have gone over this line. Bookmaker mispricing is mild with GL_5 at 1.40 for the away team, supporting the Over direction.
17-04-2026 12:15	Ha Noi FC	-	Becamex HCMC	Under 1.25 Goals 1st Half	75%	Expected 1st half goals 1.10 based on home 0.80 scored/0.30 conceded and away 0.40 scored/0.70 conceded. Home team's last 5 home matches saw 4 first halves under 1.25 goals, while away team's last 5 away matches also had 4 first halves under 1.25. Additionally, Becamex HCMC failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
17-04-2026 13:00	Lokomotiv Tashkent	-	Navbahor Namangan	Navbahor Namangan -0.25	67%	Navbahor Namangan is 3rd in the league with 15 points, 4 points above Lokomotiv Tashkent (7th). They have won 4 of their last 5 matches, covering the -0.25 handicap in those victories. Head-to-head history strongly supports Navbahor, as they have won all last four encounters against Lokomotiv Tashkent.
17-04-2026 13:00	Musanze FC	-	Amagaju	Musanze FC -0.5 Asian Handicap	67%	Musanze FC holds a 12-point standings advantage over 15th-place Amagaju and has won all four previous H2H matches (2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 2-1), each by at least one goal to cover -0.5. Despite Amagaju's strong recent AH record (4 covers in last 5), the historical tactical dominance in this fixture supports a home victory.
17-04-2026 13:00	Pretoria University	-	Gomora United	Over 1.75 Goals	68%	Expected total goals of 2.00 based on home averages (1.10 scored, 1.40 conceded) and away averages (0.70 scored, 0.80 conceded) exceeds the 1.75 line. Gomora United's last two away matches both had over 1.75 goals (2-1 and 1-1), and Pretoria University's recent home matches include 3-2 and 1-2 results. H2H is neutral with only one prior match ending 0-0.
17-04-2026 13:00	Korona Kielce II	-	Naprzod Jedrzejow	Home -0.5 Asian Handicap	72%	Home team Korona Kielce II is 9th with 40 points, 6 points above 12th-place Naprzod Jedrzejow, showing a standings gap. In their last 5 home matches, Korona has covered the -0.5 handicap in 4 (80%), including recent wins like 3-2 and 4-0. Head-to-head matches both ended in home wins (4-1 and 3-0), confirming their ability to cover. The away team has covered only 3 of last 5 away matches (60%), and common opponents like Avia Swidnik (both lost) further indicate home superiority.
17-04-2026 13:30	Sleza Wroclaw	-	Warta Gorzow	Over 3.0 Goals	68%	Expected total goals of 3.05 slightly exceeds the 3.0 line, with away team Warta Gorzow showing 60% Over 3.0 goals rate in their last 5 away matches. H2H history supports Over with 2 of 3 matches exceeding 3.0 goals (67%), and away defensive fragility is confirmed with 3 of last 5 away matches conceding 2+ goals.
17-04-2026 13:30	HNK Gorica	-	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Over 2.5 Goals	82%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.95 vs line 2.5, with all 4 H2H matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Away team has conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches, and home team scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home matches. Strong bookmaker mispricing for the home team (GL_5 of 2.45) further supports the Over.
17-04-2026 13:50	Ibri Club	-	Samail	Over 2.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals 2.70 based on home scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.50 at home, away scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.70 away. Both teams show 80% of their last 5 home/away matches over 2.25 goals, with recent high-scoring matches (6, 3, 5 for home; 3, 3, 4, 5 for away). Market pricing error is high (GL_5: 2.30 for Ibri, 1.65 for Samail) indicating consistent bookmaker mispricing favoring Over.
17-04-2026 14:00	Odisha FC	-	Mohammedan SC	Over 2.5 Goals	73%	Expected total 2.85 vs line 2.5, driven by Mohammedan SC's league-worst defence (conceding 2.6 goals per away match). Odisha's home matches have gone Over 2.5 in 60% of recent games, while Mohammedan's away matches show accelerating bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.60). Despite two 0-0 H2H draws, Mohammedan's current defensive collapse (conceded 7, 2, 5, 2 in recent aways) overrides historical patterns.
17-04-2026 14:00	Belasitsa	-	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	Over 2.75 Goals	76%	Expected total goals of 3.15 based on Belasitsa averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded at home, and Etar averaging 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded away. Etar's away matches have seen Over 2.5 goals in 60% of recent games, and they have conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. Moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5: 1.60 and 1.50) further supports the over.
17-04-2026 14:00	NRB Beni Oulbene	-	CA Batna	Over 1.5 Goals	66%	Expected total goals is 1.75 based on home scoring 0.80 and conceding 1.20 at home, away scoring 1.00 and conceding 0.50 away. Home team has seen 70% of recent matches exceed 1.75 goals (7 of 10), while away is at 50%. Common opponent JS Djijel produced 3 goals in both teams' matches, supporting an Over. Bookmaker mispricing for away team is mild (GL_5 1.25) but directionally neutral with the line.
17-04-2026 14:00	Smederevo	-	FK Fap	Over 2.0 Goals	65%	Expected total goals of 2.05 exceeds the line, with away team conceding 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches indicating defensive fragility. Away team's recent matches show 60% Over 2.0 goals, and common opponents like Jedinstvo UB have seen high-scoring games. However, home team's scoring drought at home slightly reduces confidence.
17-04-2026 14:00	Borac Cacak	-	FK Dubocica	Borac Cacak -1 Asian Handicap	67%	Home team Borac Cacak has a 5-point standings advantage over FK Dubocica (11th vs 12th) and has won all 5 of their last Asian Handicap bets, indicating strong covering form. In head-to-head home matches, Borac Cacak covered -1 with a 3-0 victory in August 2025. Although common opponent signals are mixed, the combination of standings gap and recent AH performance supports confidence above 65%.
17-04-2026 14:00	FC Dinamo City	-	KF Tirana	Under 2.5 Goals	74%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.10 based on home averages (scored 1.10, conceded 0.90) and away averages (scored 0.90, conceded 1.30). H2H shows 3 of last 4 matches (75%) had under 2.5 goals. Recent match history supports Under: 80% of home matches and 70% of away matches stayed under 2.5 goals. Market pricing error (GL_5 of 1.20 for home) indicates bookmaker mispricing, aligning with the Under direction given the expected total below the line.
17-04-2026 14:30	Tukums 2000	-	FK Liepaja	Over 2.5 Goals	67%	Expected total goals of 2.95, calculated from Tukums 2000 averaging 1.30 goals scored at home and FK Liepaja conceding 1.70 goals away, exceeds the 2.5 line. H2H history shows 3 of 4 matches (75%) finished Over 2.5 goals, and away team's goal line mispricing (GL_5 1.15) adds mild edge for Over.
17-04-2026 14:30	NK Kustosija	-	NK Uskok	Over 2.25 Goals	72%	Expected total goals of 2.30 (based on home avg 1.40 scored/conceded at home and away avg 1.40 scored/1.00 conceded away) slightly exceeds the 2.25 line. Home team has seen Over 2.25 in 80% of recent home matches (4 of 5), while away team has 75% Over rate in away matches (3 of 4). Bookmaker mispricing for away team (GL_5 1.80) shows consistent underestimation of goals, aligning with the Over direction.
17-04-2026 14:30	NK Solin	-	Varteks Varazdin	NK Solin -0.25 (1st Half)	70%	Solin holds a 14-point standings advantage (8th, 37 pts) over 12th-place Varteks (23 pts). In recent home matches, Solin led at halftime in 2 of their last 3 (66.7%), while Varteks trailed at halftime in 3 of their last 6 away matches (50%) and conceded 1.0 first-half goals on average away. Common opponent Mladost Zdralovi saw Solin win 3-1 (HT 2-0) at home, while Varteks lost 0-2 (HT 0-2) away, reinforcing Solin's superior first-half form.
17-04-2026 14:45	Al Ahli Jeddah	-	Johor Darul Takzim	Over 3.0 Goals	66%	Expected total goals of 3.35 from Al Ahli averaging 2.10 goals scored at home and Johor Darul Takzim conceding only 0.50 goals away, combined with Johor's 60% over 3.0 goals rate in recent away matches. Home team's form momentum with 3+ goals in 3 of last 5 home games and mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 of 1.45 for away team) further support the over.
17-04-2026 15:00	Gornik Polkowice	-	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	Over 2.75 Goals	85%	Expected total goals of 3.35 based on home scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.90 at home, away scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.80 away, significantly exceeds the 2.75 line. Home team has 60% of recent matches Over 2.75, away team has 90% Over 2.75 with defensive fragility conceding 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 away matches. H2H is neutral with 2 Over and 2 Under, and mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.05) for the home team aligns with the Over direction.
17-04-2026 15:00	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	-	Yantra Gabrovo	Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half)	71%	Expected first half goals is 1.15 (home: 0.30 scored, 0.70 conceded; away: 0.60 scored, 0.70 conceded). Both teams have seen 70% of their recent matches feature at least one first-half goal, and the line of 0.75 is significantly lower than the expected total. H2H is neutral with no first-half data, and bookmaker mispricing is low (GL_5 < 1.0 for both teams).
17-04-2026 15:00	Samgurali	-	Dila Gori	Over 2.5 Goals	73%	Expected total goals 2.65 based on home averages 1.40 scored/1.60 conceded and away averages 1.40 scored/0.90 conceded. Home team 60% Over 2.5 in last 5 home matches (scores 2+ in 3 of 5), away team 80% Over 2.5 in last 5 away (conceded 2+ in 3 of 5). H2H matches show 75% Over 2.5 (3 of 4 totals 3+).
17-04-2026 15:00	Dinamo Tbilisi	-	Meshakhte Tkibuli	Over 2.25 Goals	70%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.25 (home: 1.00 scored, 1.20 conceded; away: 1.10 scored, 1.20 conceded) matches the line, but historical trends strongly favor Over: Dinamo Tbilisi's last 5 home matches saw 4 over 2.25 goals (80%), and Meshakhte Tkibuli's last 5 away had 3 over (60%) with defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of 5). Bookmaker mispricing is high (GL_5 1.90 home, 1.60 away accelerating), aligning with Over preference given close line and structural signals.
17-04-2026 15:00	FC Gori	-	FC Telavi	Over 2.25 Goals	70%	Expected total goals of 2.90 based on home avg 1.70 goals scored at home and away avg 2.00 goals conceded away. Away team has 75% of recent away matches over 2.25 goals, and home team shows moderate bookmaker mispricing with GL_5 of 1.70 accelerating for Over, indicating value.
17-04-2026 15:00	Aduana Stars	-	Nations FC	Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half	73%	Expected 1st half goals total is 0.85 (home HT avg: 0.20 scored, 0.20 conceded; away HT avg: 0.80 scored, 0.50 conceded), above the 0.75 line. Away team has scored in the first half in 3 of their last 4 away matches, with 30% of their goals coming in the first 15 minutes indicating an early scoring pattern. Despite home team's low HT scoring at home (0 goals in last 5 home first halves), the quality gap (4th vs 14th) and away team's HT attacking form support Over.
17-04-2026 15:15	Termez Surkhon	-	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Over 2.0 Goals	69%	Expected total of 2.65 goals from home avg 1.10 goals scored at home and away avg 2.00 goals conceded away, with home team recording 75% Over 2.0 in recent home matches. Away team shows defensive fragility, conceding 2+ goals in 3 of last 4 away matches, outweighing low-scoring H2H history due to current form. Market pricing error is mild with home GL_5 at 1.25, adding marginal edge for Over.
17-04-2026 15:30	Zira IK	-	Neftchi Baku	Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half	79%	Expected 1st half goals 1.20 vs line 0.75, with Zira IK having 4 of 5 recent home 1st halves Over 0.75 (80%) and Neftchi Baku 4 of 5 away 1st halves Over 0.75 (80%), driven by Neftchi's average of 1.20 1st half goals away and Zira's average of 0.50 1st half goals at home combined with strong defensive vulnerabilities in the first half.
17-04-2026 15:45	Slaven Belupo	-	Hajduk Split	Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	78%	1st half expected goals total 1.30 (Slaven Belupo home 0.30 avg, Hajduk Split away 1.20 avg) vs line 1.0. Hajduk Split scored in the 1st half in all 5 recent away matches (1,2,1,2,1), with 100% Over 1.0 when excluding pushes. Their early scoring pattern (47.6% goals in first 30 minutes) and quality gap (2nd vs 5th) support early goals. Bookmaker mispricing on Hajduk's goal line (GL_5 1.80) adds edge for Over.
17-04-2026 16:00	SV Kapfenberg	-	SW Bregenz	Over 2.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals 3.15 based on home scoring 1.10 at home and away conceding 2.20 away. Away team's last 5 away matches saw 4 over 2.5 goals (80%), and H2H matches produced 3+ goals in 3 of 4 meetings. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate for away team (GL_5=1.55) pointing to Over.
17-04-2026 16:00	Austria Lustenau	-	Rapid Vienna II	Over 2.75 Goals	78%	Expected total goals 3.25 vs line 2.75, calculated from home avg 1.80 goals scored at home and away avg 1.90 goals scored away with away conceding 1.80 on the road. Both teams show 60% of recent matches Over 2.75 goals, and the home team's top-league position against the away team's 11th-place standing indicates a quality gap favoring attacking dominance.
17-04-2026 16:00	FC Vion Zlate Moravce	-	STK Samorin	Over 2.5 Goals	75%	Expected total goals is 3.00, derived from home averaging 1.70 goals scored at home and away conceding 1.90 goals on the road, with H2H history showing 3 of 4 matches over 2.5 goals (75%). Home team ranks 2nd vs away's 13th, indicating a quality gap favoring attack, and away team concedes 5.20 shots on target per game, signaling defensive weakness. Moderate bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 1.60 accelerating) adds edge to the Over.
17-04-2026 16:00	Hegelmann Litauen	-	FK Riteriai	Over 2.5 Goals	83%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.60 based on home scoring 0.80 and conceding 1.30 per home match, away scoring 0.50 and conceding 2.60 per away match. Away team's last 5 away matches all exceeded 2.5 goals (100% Over), and H2H matches show 67% Over 2.5. Structural signal: away team conceded 2+ goals in all last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. Home team's high market pricing error (GL_5 1.85) aligns with Over direction, suggesting bookmaker mispricing.
17-04-2026 16:00	Chrobry Glogow	-	Stal Mielec	Over 2.5 Goals	85%	Expected total goals of 3.10 based on home avg 1.60 goals scored at home and away avg 2.00 goals scored away, with defensive averages. Away team has 80% of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals, and the H2H match had 3 goals. Structural quality gap with home team 3rd vs away team 15th supports attacking play.
17-04-2026 16:00	El Zamalek	-	CR Belouizdad	El Zamalek -0.75 Asian Handicap	67%	El Zamalek top the Egyptian Premier League and have covered the -0.75 handicap in their last three home matches (2-1, 1-0, 2-0 victories). CR Belouizdad, 8th in Algeria's Ligue 1, have a mixed away record, and while they covered +0.75 in recent away games, El Zamalek's dominant home form and standings gap support a win by at least one goal.
17-04-2026 16:00	AEL Limassol	-	Enosis Paralimni	Under 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half)	73%	1st half expected goals total of 1.25 matches the line, but both teams show strong under trends: AEL Limassol 80% under (8 of last 10), Enosis Paralimni 70% under (7 of last 10) on the 1st half goal line. Structural context: low 1st half scoring averages (home 0.40, away 0.30).
17-04-2026 16:30	Valur Reykjavik	-	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	70%	Expected 1st half goals: 2.05 vs line 1.25 (gap +0.80). Home averages 0.9 scored and 1.6 conceded in the 1st half at home; away averages 1.2 scored and 0.4 conceded in the 1st half away. Both teams show moderate 1st half goal involvement (home 40%, away 50% Over 1.25 in recent matches), but the significant expected total advantage and over-first philosophy support the Over. Away team also shows strong bookmaker mispricing in goal line (GL_5: 2.15, accelerating), adding edge to the Over direction.
17-04-2026 16:30	Holstein Kiel	-	Kaiserslautern	Over 2.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals 3.15 exceeds the line, driven by home team averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded at home, and away team averaging 1.50 scored and 1.70 conceded away. Recent form shows Holstein Kiel 70% Over 2.75 in last 10 matches, Kaiserslautern 80% Over, with H2H 100% Over in 4 meetings, and Kaiserslautern conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 away matches. Moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.60 for home team) accelerating adds edge.
17-04-2026 16:30	Dunav Ruse	-	Marek Dupnitsa	Under 2.25 Goals	85%	Expected total goals 1.90 based on Dunav Ruse averaging 0.90 goals scored at home and Marek Dupnitsa conceding 1.50 away. Both teams' last 5 matches went Under 2.25 in 80% of cases (4 of 5 each), and all 4 head-to-head matches finished with 2 or fewer goals. Home side's high bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.75) suggests consistent overestimation of goals in their matches, adding edge to the Under.
17-04-2026 16:30	Sassuolo	-	Como	Over 2.5,3.0 Goals	74%	Expected total goals 2.95 vs line 2.75 with Sassuolo scoring 2+ in 3 of last 5 home matches (including 3-0, 2-1) and Como's away defence showing accelerating mispricing (GL_5 2.10). Both teams' recent match histories support Over (Sassuolo 80%, Como 60%), and Como conceded 3+ goals in 2 of last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility.
17-04-2026 16:30	Al-Riffa	-	A'ali Club	Over 2.5 Goals	72%	Expected total goals is 2.75 (home averages 1.90 scored and 1.40 conceded at home, away averages 1.30 scored and 0.90 conceded away). Home team's recent matches are 80% Over 2.5, and head-to-head history shows 100% Over with an average of 4.75 goals per match. Moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 of 1.50 for home team) indicates consistent underestimation of goals in their games.
17-04-2026 16:30	Esbjerg	-	Hillerød	Over 2.5 Goals	65%	Expected total goals calculated at 3.00 (home avg 1.60 scored, away avg 1.70 conceded) exceeds the line of 2.5 by 0.50 goals. H2H results show 75% Over 2.5 (3 of 4 matches), and both teams have 50% Over rates in recent matches. Mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.20 for home) aligns with the Over direction.
17-04-2026 16:45	MC El Bayadh	-	Paradou AC	Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half)	82%	Expected 1st half goals: 1.45 (home: 0.2 scored, 0.6 conceded; away: 0.5 scored, 1.6 conceded). Away team's last 5 away matches all went Over 0.75 in the 1st half (100%), averaging 2.2 goals per first half. Home team's last 4 home first halves went Over 0.75 in 2 (50%). Away team's defensive fragility (conceded 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 away matches) and early scoring pattern (scored in 3 of 5 away first halves) support a high-scoring start.
17-04-2026 16:45	JS Saoura	-	USM Khenchela	Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	78%	Expected 1st half goals 1.25 vs line 1.0. Away team has gone over 1.0 in 5 of last 6 away 1st halves (83%), home team 2 of 4 (50%). Away team shows strong early scoring pattern and home team's quality gap suggests early pressure. No significant bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 <1.0 for both).
17-04-2026 16:45	ES Setif	-	MC Oran	MC Oran +0.25 Asian Handicap	67%	MC Oran is 4th with 42 points, 15 points above 13th-place ES Setif, and has covered the Asian Handicap in 80% of recent matches (4 of last 5). ES Setif has covered only 40% (2 of last 5). Although H2H shows ES Setif won 1-0 at home last season, MC Oran's current form and standings advantage suggest they can avoid defeat.
17-04-2026 17:00	Jahn Regensburg	-	Alemannia Aachen	Over 3.0 Goals	68%	Expected total goals is 3.30 based on home scoring 1.70 on average at home and away conceding 0.90 on the road, combined with away scoring 2.40 away and home conceding 1.60 at home. Both teams have mixed match history with 40-50% of recent matches over 3.0 goals, but H2H is neutral with only one prior match. The home team shows moderate bookmaker mispricing with a GL_5 of 1.75 accelerating, indicating value on the Over given the expected total exceeds the line.
17-04-2026 17:00	SC Kalsdorf	-	SV Lafnitz	Over 3.5 Goals	84%	Expected total goals 3.90 from home scoring 1.40 and conceding 1.70 at home, away scoring 2.50 and conceding 2.20 away. Away team has 75% of recent matches over 3.5 goals and conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. Moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.70) for away team aligns with Over direction.
17-04-2026 17:00	SC Weiz	-	WAC St Andra II	Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	71%	Expected 1st half goals is 1.55 (home: 0.70 scored, 1.10 conceded; away: 0.40 scored, 0.90 conceded), giving a 0.55-goal cushion over the 1.0 line. Away team's last 2 away matches both exceeded 1.0 1st half goals (100%), and home team's full-time goal line mispricing (GL_5 1.65) suggests bookmaker error favoring overs.
17-04-2026 17:00	SPG Wallern/ASV St. Marienkirchen	-	ASK Voitsberg	Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half)	73%	Expected 1st half goals total is 1.60 based on home 0.50 and away 1.30 averages, above the 1.5 line. ASK Voitsberg has scored in the first half in 100% of recent away matches (4/4 Over 1.5), and as the dominant league leaders with top standings, they are likely to attack early against mid-table SPG Wallern.
17-04-2026 17:00	Atus Velden	-	Junge Wikinger Ried	Over 3.25 Goals	76%	Expected total goals 3.95 based on home avg 1.00 goals scored at home and away avg 2.70 conceded away, combined with away avg 1.60 scored away and home avg 2.60 conceded at home. Away team has 60% of away matches Over 3.25 goals (3 of last 5), and severe bookmaker mispricing with GL_5 of 2.60 for away team indicates consistent underestimation of goals. Away team also concedes 5.5 shots on target per away match on average, further supporting high scoring.
17-04-2026 17:00	Ilzer SV	-	SV Lebring	Over 3 Goals	87%	Expected goal total is 3.75 based on home scoring 2.30 and conceding 1.10 at home, away scoring 2.00 and conceding 2.10 away, with 60% of away matches and 67% of H2H matches over 3 goals. Structural signal: away team conceded 2+ goals in all last 5 away matches. Bookmaker mispricing is high for away team (GL_5 1.85), indicating consistent underestimation of goals in their games.
17-04-2026 17:00	SV Schwechat	-	Slovan HAC	Over 3.0 Goals	88%	Expected total goals is 4.15 based on home avg 1.90 goals scored at home and away avg 2.00 goals conceded away. Home team has 60% of recent matches over 3.25 goals, and H2H shows 75% over (3 of 4 matches). Bookmaker mispricing is moderate with GL_5 of 1.60 for home and 1.65 for away, both aligning with the Over direction.
17-04-2026 17:00	SV Gloggnitz	-	Oberwart	Over 3.0 Goals	84%	Expected total goals calculated at 4.10 based on home avg 2.50 goals scored at home and away avg 2.60 goals scored away, well above the 3.0 line. Home team has 70% of recent matches Over 3.0 goals, and severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 3.20 for home) indicates consistent underestimation of goals. Despite H2H showing 2 of 3 matches Under 3.0, the offensive strength and quality gap with home team top of the league support a high-scoring outcome.
17-04-2026 17:00	Sportunion Mauer	-	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	Over 2.5 Goals	75%	Expected total goals is 2.80 based on home scoring 0.70 on average at home and away scoring 2.20 on average, with away team conceding 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches. Away team's recent matches show 88.9% Over 2.5, and moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.65) supports the Over direction.
17-04-2026 17:00	Hässleholms IF	-	BK Olympic	Over 2.5 Goals	85%	Expected total goals is 3.45 based on Hässleholms IF averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded at home, and BK Olympic averaging 1.90 scored and 2.30 conceded away. H2H shows 75% of matches (3 out of 4) over 2.5 goals, and BK Olympic has 100% over in recent away matches. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate with GL_5 of 1.60 for BK Olympic, indicating consistent underestimation of goals in their matches.
17-04-2026 17:00	FCM Traiskirchen	-	SR Fach-Donaufeld	Over 3.0 Goals	78%	Expected total goals is 3.80 based on Traiskirchen averaging 1.60 scored and 2.70 conceded at home, and Fach-Donaufeld averaging 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded away. Home team's recent matches show 60% over 3.0 goals, and H2H history has 75% over in the last 4 meetings, supporting a high-scoring game. Mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=1.30 for home team) aligns with the over direction.
17-04-2026 17:00	SV Leobendorf	-	Neusiedl	Over 3.0 Goals	85%	Expected total goals of 3.60 based on home 1.80 scored/1.20 conceded averages and away 1.70 scored/2.50 conceded averages, with the away team conceding 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (including 4-2, 3-1, 4-2). Neusiedl's away matches have gone Over 3.0 in 80% of recent games, while bookmaker mispricing is high (GL_5 1.85 for Leobendorf) indicating consistent line inaccuracies, and the quality gap between 2nd and 15th positions supports sustained attacking pressure.
17-04-2026 17:00	Djurgarden	-	Malmo FF	Over 2.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals calculated at 3.15 from Djurgarden's home avg 2.50 goals scored and Malmo FF's away avg 1.40 goals conceded, with both teams' recent match histories showing 60% and 75% over 2.5 goals respectively. Djurgarden has scored 2+ goals in their last three home matches, indicating strong attacking form, and bookmaker mispricing is high for Djurgarden with a GL_5 of 1.95, suggesting consistent underestimation of goals in their matches.
17-04-2026 17:00	Degerfors	-	Elfsborg	Over 2.5 Goals	68%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.95 (home: 1.40 scored, 1.30 conceded at home; away: 1.50 scored, 1.70 conceded away). H2H supports over with 75% of matches (3 out of 4) exceeding 2.5 goals. Away team's recent away matches show 67% over 2.5 (2 out of 3), and bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 of 1.15 for Elfsborg) aligns with the over direction.
17-04-2026 17:00	Fenerbahce	-	Caykur Rizespor	Over 3.0 Goals	73%	Expected total goals is 3.15 based on Fenerbahce averaging 2.10 goals scored at home and Çaykur Rizespor conceding 1.40 away, with H2H showing 100% Over 3.0 in the last 4 meetings (totals 7,5,5,4). Çaykur Rizespor has conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate for Fenerbahce with a GL_5 of 1.60 accelerating, adding edge to the Over bet.
17-04-2026 17:00	Antalyaspor	-	Konyaspor	Under 2.5 Goals	76%	Expected total goals of 2.40 (based on home avg 1.10 scored/conceded and away avg 1.30 scored/0.80 conceded) is below the 2.5 line. H2H shows 100% Under in last 4 meetings, with all matches having 2 or fewer goals. Both teams are in the bottom half with negative goal difference (Antalyaspor -17, Konyaspor -5), and Antalyaspor failed to score in 2 of last 5. Home team's high market pricing error (GL_5 2.10) indicates consistent bookmaker mispricing, aligning with Under direction.
17-04-2026 17:00	Brondby	-	Sonderjyske	Under 2.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals is 1.85 (Brondby avg 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded at home, Sonderjyske avg 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded away). Brondby have scored only 1 goal in their last 4 home league matches, and H2H shows 3 of 4 matches under 2.5 goals (75%). Bookmaker mispricing for Brondby (GL_5 1.55) aligns with an Under bet as the line is consistently overestimated.
17-04-2026 17:00	KCCA	-	Kitara FC	Over 2.0 Goals	66%	Expected total goals 2.60 from home scoring 2.10 at home and conceding 0.80, away scoring 2.10 away and conceding 0.20. Home team has 7 of last 9 non-push matches Over 2.0 goals (77.8%) and scored 2+ in last 3 home matches, showing attacking form. Despite H2H having 3 of 4 matches not Over 2.0, home momentum and statistical gap override.
17-04-2026 17:00	FC Gagra	-	Torpedo Kutaisi	Over 2.25 Goals	75%	Expected total goals of 3.05 vs line 2.25, calculated from FC Gagra's 1.50 avg goals scored at home and Torpedo Kutaisi's 2.00 avg goals scored away. FC Gagra's last 5 home matches have seen 80% Over 2.25, and H2H shows 2 of 4 matches with 3+ goals, while Torpedo Kutaisi has mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.35) aligning with Over.
17-04-2026 17:30	Stellenbosch FC	-	Sekhukhune United FC	Over 1.75 Goals	70%	Expected total goals 1.85 based on home avg 0.90 scored and away avg 1.10 scored, with home team recording 80% Over 1.75 in last 5 matches and H2H showing 75% Over. Away team's goal line mispricing (GL_5 1.55, accelerating) adds edge for Over.
17-04-2026 17:30	KR Reykjavik	-	Thor Akureyri	Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half)	83%	Expected 1st half total is 1.95 goals based on home avg 1.70 goals scored and away avg 0.90 goals scored in the first half, exceeding the line. Home team has 83% of recent home matches Over 1.5 goals, and away team has 67% of away matches Over. Home team leads the league with attacking form, and strong bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 of 2.65 for home) supports an Over bet.
17-04-2026 17:30	KA Akureyri	-	Vikingur Reykjavik	Over 3.0 Goals	84%	Expected total goals is 4.05 based on home scoring 2.70 on average and away conceding 0.90, with home's recent matches 80% over 3.25 and away's 60% over. Despite H2H showing 3 of 4 matches under, home team's strong scoring form (2+ goals in last 3 home games) and severe bookmaker mispricing for KA Akureyri (GL_5 of 2.65) indicate the line is underestimated.
17-04-2026 17:45	Academico Viseu	-	Feirense	Over 2.25 Goals	66%	Expected total goals 2.35 based on home avg 1.90 goals scored at home and away avg 0.90 goals conceded away, with home team scoring 2+ goals in each of their last three home matches. Home matches show 60% Over 2.25, and bookmaker mispricing is high with GL_5 of 1.95 for the home team, indicating strong value on Over.
17-04-2026 18:00	RWD Molenbeek Reserves	-	RFC Liege Reserves	Under 2.0 Goals (1st Half)	73%	Expected 1st half goals calculated at 2.00 exactly matching the line, but historical data strongly supports Under: home team has 60% of recent matches Under 2.0 in the 1st half (6 of 10), away team has 70% Under (7 of 10). Away team failed to score in the 1st half in 4 of their last 5 away matches. Both teams have low 1st half scoring averages (home 1.20, away 0.40 per match). No contradictory H2H 1st half data available.
17-04-2026 18:00	Seraing United	-	SK Beveren	Over 2.5 Goals	86%	Expected total goals of 2.85 based on Seraing United averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded at home, and SK Beveren averaging 2.70 scored and 0.60 conceded away. Seraing's last 4 home matches saw 75% Over 2.5 goals, Beveren's last 5 away matches had 80% Over 2.5, and the previous H2H ended 2-1 (Over 2.5). Bookmaker mispricing is moderate with home GL_5 at 1.70 accelerating.
17-04-2026 18:00	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	-	Francs Borains	Over 2.5 Goals	80%	Expected total goals calculated at 3.0 based on home averages (1.30 scored, 2.10 conceded at home) and away averages (1.10 scored, 1.50 conceded away). Home team's recent home matches show 75% Over 2.5 goals (3 of 4), while H2H history strongly supports Over with 75% of past meetings exceeding 2.5 goals (3 of 4). Away team's defensive fragility is evident, conceding 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches. The goal line of 2.25 presents a significant gap of 0.75 goals in favor of Over, aligning with the Over-first philosophy.
17-04-2026 18:00	KV Kortrijk	-	RWD Molenbeek	Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	80%	Expected 1st half goals only 0.85 vs line 1.25, with home failing to score in 3 of last 5 home first halves and away failing to score in 3 of last 5 away first halves. Both teams average low 1st half goals (home 0.20, away 0.60), and recent match history shows 80% of home and away 1st halves under the line, supporting a strong Under signal.
17-04-2026 18:00	Genk II	-	Gent II	Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	76%	Expected 1st half goals of 1.55 exceed the line of 1.25, with Genk II's home 1st half matches 75% Over (3 of 4) and Gent II's away 1st half matches 75% Over (3 of 4). Gent II shows accelerating bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.50) for goals, favoring Over.
17-04-2026 18:00	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk	-	Lommel	Over 2.75 Goals	68%	Expected total goals of 2.85 based on Beerschot scoring 2.00 at home and Lommel conceding 1.30 away, plus Lommel scoring 1.50 away. Lommel's away matches went Over 2.75 in 2 of 3 (67%), and H2H shows 4 consecutive matches with 3+ goals. Severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=2.40) for the home team indicates consistent underestimation of goal totals.
17-04-2026 18:00	Seraing United Reserves	-	ROC Charleroi Reserves	Over 3.5 Goals	67%	Expected total goals 3.70 exceeds the 3.5 line, driven by Seraing's 2.0 home scoring average and Charleroi's 2.5 away concession rate. Charleroi's away matches have gone over 3.5 in 3 of the last 5 (60%), and they have conceded 2+ in 3 of 5 away, showing defensive fragility.
17-04-2026 18:00	FC Utrecht Reserves	-	FC Eindhoven	Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	78%	Expected 1st half goals is 1.00 based on home averages (0.60 scored, 0.40 conceded) and away averages (0.60 scored, 0.40 conceded). History strongly supports Under: 70% of home's last 10 matches had under 1.25 HT goals (7/10), and 80% of away's last 10 matches had under (8/10). Both teams are consistently low scorers in the first half, with each averaging only 0.60 goals per first half. The line at 1.25 offers value given the historical trends and expected total.
17-04-2026 18:00	Willem II	-	AZ Reserves	Under 3.5 Goals	90%	Expected total goals 3.00 based on home avg 1.90 scored at home and 0.60 conceded, away avg 1.50 scored away and 2.00 conceded. Both teams show scoring droughts with 80% of Willem II's last 10 matches and 60% of AZ Reserves' last 10 matches under 3.5 goals, supported by bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.70 for home, 1.80 for away) indicating value on Under as expected total is below the line.
17-04-2026 18:00	PSV Reserves	-	Ajax Reserves	Under 1.5 Goals - 1st Half	90%	Expected 1st half goals are 1.30 based on home 0.70 and away 0.70 averages, below the 1.5 line. Home team has 80% Under 1.5 in recent home matches (4 of 5), away team has 67% Under 1.5 in away matches (4 of 6) and failed to score in the first half in 5 of their last 6 away games. Strong bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 >2.0 for both teams) aligns with the Under direction.
17-04-2026 18:00	ADO Den Haag	-	RKC	Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	73%	Expected first-half goals total is 1.5, above the line of 1.25, driven by ADO Den Haag's 0.8 goals scored and 0.3 conceded at home in the first half, combined with RKC's 1.3 goals scored and 0.6 conceded away. RKC's away matches have seen 60% (3 of 5) exceed 1.25 first-half goals, and both teams show strong early scoring patterns (70% and 80% likelihood). The 0.25-goal positive gap and structural support for early goals justify the Over bet.
17-04-2026 18:00	Vitesse	-	Maastricht	Over 3.5 Goals	70%	Expected total goals of 3.35 based on Vitesse averaging 2.40 goals scored at home and Maastricht conceding 2.10 away, with Vitesse's last 5 home matches seeing 80% Over 3.5. H2H shows 2 of 3 meetings had Over 3.5 goals, and Maastricht's defensive fragility is confirmed with 3 of last 5 away matches conceding 2+ goals.
17-04-2026 18:00	De Graafschap	-	Cambuur Leeuwarden	Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half)	88%	Expected 1st half goals are only 1.05 based on home 0.70 scored/conceded and away 0.50 scored/0.40 conceded averages. History strongly supports Under: De Graafschap has seen 70% of their recent matches with Under 1.5 first-half goals, while Cambuur has 80%. Cambuur failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 5 away matches, and both teams are low first-half scorers. The line of 1.5 is significantly above the expected total, offering strong value.
17-04-2026 18:00	Fram Reykjavik	-	Keflavik	Over 3.5 Goals	77%	Expected total goals (4.45) significantly exceed the 3.5 line, based on Fram's home scoring (2.40 avg) and Keflavik's leaky away defense (conceding 1.80 avg). Recent form is dominant: 80% of Fram's last 5 matches and 100% of Keflavik's last 5 went Over 3.5, with 4/4 H2H meetings also exceeding this line. Bookmaker mispricing is high (Fram's GL_5 = 2.25), indicating consistent market underestimation of goal totals.
17-04-2026 18:00	Pau	-	Guingamp	Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half)	78%	Expected 1st half goals is 1.15, below the line of 1.25. Pau has 75% of home matches under 1.25 1st half goals (3 of 4), while Guingamp has 80% of away matches under 1.25 (4 of 5) and failed to score in the first half in 4 of their last 5 away games. Both teams have low 1st half scoring averages (Pau 0.70, Guingamp 0.20 away).
17-04-2026 18:00	Le Mans	-	Clermont Foot	Over 2.5 Goals	86%	Expected total goals of 3.10 based on Le Mans averaging 1.90 scored at home and Clermont Foot conceding 1.60 away, combined with Clermont Foot's defensive fragility (conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 away matches) and 75% of their away matches going over 2.5. Strong bookmaker mispricing for Le Mans with GL_5 of 2.60 indicates consistent underestimation of goals.
17-04-2026 18:00	Rodez Aveyron	-	Amiens	Under 2.75 Goals	73%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.60 based on Rodez's home averages (1.30 scored, 0.70 conceded) and Amiens' away averages (1.10 scored, 2.10 conceded). Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 80% of recent home/away matches (4 of 5 each), with Amiens failing to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches. Amiens also show severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 2.45), indicating consistent underestimation of their high-conceding matches, aligning with the under bet.
17-04-2026 18:00	Nancy	-	Annecy	Over 2.25 Goals	69%	Expected total goals of 2.30 based on home avg 0.90 goals scored at home and away avg 1.30 conceded away, with 60% of recent home and away matches over the line. Away team conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches, showing defensive fragility, and bookmaker mispricing for home team has accelerating error of 1.80 (GL_5), adding edge to the over.
17-04-2026 18:00	Ujpest	-	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	Over 2.5 Goals	74%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.80 based on home avg 1.20 goals scored at home and away avg 2.00 goals scored away, exceeding the 2.50 line. Ujpest has 70% of recent matches Over 2.5, Nyiregyhaza 60%, and the home team has scored 2+ goals in each of their last three home matches, showing strong attacking form. Mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.15) for the home team, which is accelerating, adds marginal edge to the Over bet.
17-04-2026 18:00	Tabor Sezana	-	NK Nafta 1903	Over 2.5 Goals	70%	Expected total goals is 2.85 based on home avg 1.60 goals scored at home and away avg 2.00 goals scored away, with both conceding around 1 goal per match. H2H shows 100% Over 2.5 in the last two meetings, and both teams have 60% Over 2.5 in their recent five matches. The gap from the line is 0.35 goals, and market pricing error is mild, not adding significant edge.
17-04-2026 18:00	Machida Zelvia	-	Al Ittihad Jeddah	Over 2.25 Goals	71%	Expected total goals of 2.40 exceeds the 2.25 line, driven by away team's 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded away on average. Away team's matches have gone Over 2.25 in 67% of recent away games, and strong bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 of 2.10) indicates consistent underestimation of goals. Structural signal from away team conceding 6.3 shots on target per game further supports Over.
17-04-2026 18:15	NK Osijek	-	NK Varazdin	Over 2.5 Goals	69%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.55 from home/away averages, above the 2.25 implied line. Varazdin's away matches have seen 75% Over 2.5, and bookmaker mispricing is severe for Osijek (GL_5 2.05), indicating consistent underestimation of goals in their matches, with the error accelerating.
17-04-2026 18:30	FK Austria Vienna II	-	SV Austria Salzburg	Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	72%	Expected 1st half goals: 1.35 (home averages 0.90 scored at home, away averages 0.80 scored away, with defensive numbers supporting). Home's last 5 home matches saw 3 with Over 1.0 goals (60%), while away's last 4 away matches all had Over 1.0 goals (100%). The away team has consistently scored in the 1st half in recent away matches, and the expected total exceeds the line by 0.35 goals.
17-04-2026 18:30	Admira Wacker	-	First Vienna FC 1894	Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	80%	Expected 1st half goals: 1.60 (home: 0.80 scored, 0.70 conceded; away: 1.10 scored, 0.60 conceded). Both teams have 60% of recent home/away matches going over 1.0 in the 1st half, with strong early scoring patterns (home scored in 60%, away in 80% of first halves). The 0.60-goal gap from the 1.0 line offers significant value.
17-04-2026 18:30	RAAL La Louviere Reserves	-	Waasland-Beveren Reserves	Over 3.5 Goals	88%	Expected total goals is 3.70 based on home avg 1.90 goals scored at home and away avg 1.60 goals scored away, with home team having 80% of last 5 home matches and away team 60% of last 5 away matches Over 3.25 goals. H2H shows 3 of last 4 matches Over 3.25, and away team conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility.
17-04-2026 18:30	Westerlo Reserves	-	KFCO Beerschot-Wilrijk Reserves	Over 3.5 Goals	75%	Expected total goals is 3.90 based on Westerlo Reserves averaging 1.90 goals scored at home and KFCO Beerschot-Wilrijk Reserves conceding 2.00 goals away, combined with away team's 2.40 goals scored away and home's 1.50 conceded. KFCO Beerschot-Wilrijk has 70% of last 10 matches over 3.5 goals, and they have conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches, showing defensive fragility. Bookmaker mispricing is high for the away team (GL_5 2.15), indicating the line may be underestimated.
17-04-2026 18:30	St Pauli	-	Cologne	Over 2.5 Goals	73%	Expected total goals is 2.95 based on home scoring 0.70 and conceding 1.90 at home, away scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.80 away. St Pauli has seen Over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5 home matches, while Cologne has conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. The only H2H match was Under 2.5, but with just one meeting it's neutral, and bookmaker mispricing is mild but aligns with the Over direction.
17-04-2026 18:45	Cork City	-	Wexford FC	Over 2.5 Goals	80%	Expected total goals 2.90 based on Cork's home attack (2.30 avg) and Wexford's away defence (1.30 avg), plus Wexford's away attack (1.40 avg) and Cork's home defence (0.80 avg). Cork's last 5 home matches saw 80% Over 2.5, and H2H history shows 75% Over (3 of 4 matches). Despite Wexford's away matches only 40% Over, strong bookmaker mispricing (Cork GL_5=1.90, Wexford GL_5=1.50) indicates the line is underestimated, and Cork's form surge (scored 2+ in last 3 home matches) supports an open game.
17-04-2026 18:45	Dundalk	-	Galway United	Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	78%	Expected first-half goals: 1.35 (above the line of 1.0). Dundalk has scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 home matches (80%), including three matches with 2+ first-half goals. Dundalk's strong home form (3rd in home standings) and early attacking style support an open start.
17-04-2026 18:45	Drogheda United	-	St Patricks	Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	78%	Expected 1st half goals only 0.95 based on home averaging 0.60 scored and 0.30 conceded in the first half at home and away averaging 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded away. Both teams show strong Under trends: Drogheda's last 10 matches saw 80% Under 1.0 HT, St Patricks 70%. St Patricks failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
17-04-2026 18:45	UCD	-	Finn Harps	Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	80%	Expected 1st half goals 0.80 based on home/away averages (UCD 0.50 scored, 0.30 conceded; Finn Harps 0.30 scored, 0.50 conceded), well below the 1.0 line. UCD's home matches have seen 1st half goals under 1.0 in 4 of last 5 (80%), while Finn Harps' away matches have gone under in all 5 (100%). Both teams are low 1st half scorers and Finn Harps failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 5 away.
17-04-2026 18:45	Kerry FC	-	Treaty United FC	Over 2.25 Goals	83%	Expected total goals 2.75 based on Kerry FC averaging 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded at home, and Treaty United averaging 0.90 scored and 1.90 conceded away. Treaty have conceded 2+ goals in all of their last 5 away matches, and market mispricing (GL_5=1.60 accelerating) adds edge. Additionally, 4 of Treaty's last 5 away matches exceeded 2.25 goals.
17-04-2026 18:45	Cobh Ramblers	-	Longford Town	Under 1.0 Goals (1st half)	78%	Expected first-half goals only 0.90 based on home averaging 0.70 and away 0.10 in the first half. Longford have failed to score before halftime in all of their last five away matches, while Cobh's home first halves have seen Under 1.0 in 70% of recent games. Additionally, Longford's away first halves have gone Under 1.0 in 9 of their last 10.
17-04-2026 18:45	Lens	-	Toulouse	Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	78%	Expected first-half goals are 1.60, above the 1.25 line, driven by Lens averaging 1.10 goals scored at home and Toulouse conceding 1.00 away in the first half. Lens has scored in the first half in 80% of home matches and all 10 recent matches had at least one first-half goal, while Toulouse shows defensive fragility away with conceded early goals.
17-04-2026 18:45	Inter Milan	-	Cagliari	Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half)	83%	Expected 1st half goals 0.95 based on Inter averaging 0.70 scored and 0.50 conceded at home in the first half, and Cagliari averaging 0.30 scored and 0.40 conceded away. Inter's home 1st half matches have seen Under 1.25 in 3 of last 4 (75%), while Cagliari's away 1st half matches have all seen Under 1.25 (4/4), with Cagliari failing to score in the first half in 3 of those 4 away matches.
17-04-2026 18:45	Glentoran	-	Larne FC	Over 2.5 Goals	73%	Expected total goals is 2.90 based on Glentoran averaging 2.30 scored and 0.60 conceded at home, and Larne FC averaging 1.60 scored and 1.30 conceded away. Both teams have 60% of their last 10 matches Over 2.5 goals, and H2H matches show 75% Over 2.5 (3 of 4). The 0.40-goal gap from the 2.5 line supports Over, with no significant bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 values below 1.0).
17-04-2026 18:45	Lens	-	Toulouse	Over 2.5 Goals	80%	Expected goal total of 3.45 from Lens averaging 2.60 goals at home and Toulouse conceding 1.80 away, with 9 of Lens's last 10 matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Toulouse has conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches, and Lens's top-2 home form contrasts with Toulouse's mid-table position. Bookmaker mispricing is high for Toulouse (GL_5=2.00), indicating consistent underestimation of goals in their matches, aligning with the Over direction despite H2H under trend due to Lens's current attacking form.
17-04-2026 18:45	Inchicore Athletic FC	-	Ballymun United	Over 3.25 Goals	80%	Expected total goals 3.55 based on home scoring 1.80 on average and away conceding 3.30 away, with Ballymun showing severe defensive fragility conceding 2+ goals in each of their last five matches. The away team's high bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 2.75) indicates consistent underestimation of goals in their games, and the dominant home side (odds 1.40) should exploit a weak defense.
17-04-2026 19:00	Shamrock Rovers	-	Bohemians Dublin	Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	67%	Shamrock Rovers average 0.9 first-half goals at home while Bohemians concede 0.2 first-half goals away, creating an expected 1.05 total that exceeds the 1.0 line. Rovers have scored in the first half in 60% of home matches and both teams show early scoring patterns, with 38.5% of Bohemians' goals coming in the first 30 minutes. Recent H2H matches have seen 75% (3/4) exceed this line, supporting the early Over trend.
17-04-2026 19:45	Rio Ave	-	AVS	Rio Ave -0.75 Asian Handicap	70%	Rio Ave (11th, 33 points) holds a 21-point standings advantage over bottom-place AVS (18th, 12 points). Home side covers the -0.75 handicap in 4 of last 5 matches (80%), while AVS fails to cover in 40% of recent away games. Common opponents like Estrela show Rio Ave's superiority with a 2-1 win versus AVS's 0-0 draw.
17-04-2026 20:00	Stjarnan	-	FH Hafnarfjordur	Over 3.0 Goals	69%	Expected total goals of 4.05 exceeds the line of 3.25, driven by Stjarnan's average of 2.70 goals scored at home and FH Hafnarfjordur conceding 1.80 away. Stjarnan has scored 2+ goals in each of their last three home matches, and bookmaker mispricing for FH (GL_5 of 2.25) indicates the line is undervalued for Over, despite low-scoring H2H history.
17-04-2026 20:00	Sportivo Trinidense	-	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Over 2.5 Goals	73%	Expected total goals calculated at 2.50 (home avg 1.30 scored, away avg 2.00 conceded), above the 2.25 line. Home team scored 2+ goals in each of last three home matches, and away team conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate with GL_5 of 1.55 for home and 1.70 for away, both accelerating and aligned with Over direction.
17-04-2026 21:00	Rayados de Chiriqui	-	Veraguas United Reserves	Rayados de Chiriqui -0.25 Asian Handicap	67%	Home team leads the standings with 28 points vs away team's 23, a 5-point gap favoring Rayados. Rayados has covered the Asian Handicap in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), while Veraguas has covered only 1 of 5 (20%). In their previous head-to-head, Rayados won 4-0 away, demonstrating superior form and ability to cover the handicap.
17-04-2026 23:00	Albion FC	-	Central Espanol	Over 2.0 Goals	71%	Expected total goals of 2.45 from home avg 1.30 goals scored at home and away avg 1.30 goals conceded away exceeds the 2.0 line. Away team has 60% of recent matches Over 2.0, and strong bookmaker mispricing with GL_5 of 1.85 accelerating indicates consistent underestimation of goals in their matches, adding edge to the Over bet.
17-04-2026 23:30	Union Santa Fe	-	Newell's	Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half)	75%	Expected 1st half goals total is 1.05 based on home averages of 1.00 scored and 0.10 conceded, and away averages of 0.30 scored and 0.70 conceded. Both teams show strong Under trends, with 80% of their recent matches having 1st half totals under 1.0 (8 of 10 each). Additionally, Newell's has failed to score in the 1st half in 3 of their last 5 away matches, reinforcing a low-scoring pattern.

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