| 29-08-2026 21:00 |
USA USL Championship |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
- |
Tampa Bay Rowdies |
Over 2.25 Goals |
74% |
Expected total: Pittsburgh home 1.20 scored/0.80 conceded, Tampa away 1.90 scored/1.20 conceded -> (1.20+1.20)/2 + (1.90+0.80)/2 = 2.55 vs line 2.25. H2H 2 meetings both over (3-0, 2-1), mutual-opponent total 2.325 clears 2.25, and Tampa goal-line pricing error GL_5=2.35 is accelerating. Full-time over is stronger than the 1st-half over line 1.0 (expected 1.15 but weak histories). |
|
| 29-08-2026 21:00 |
Canada Premier League |
Cavalry FC |
- |
Vancouver FC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
68% |
Expected FT total is 3.10 from Cavalry's 2.10 scored/1.20 conceded at home and Vancouver's 1.70 scored/1.20 conceded away, above the 3.0 line; Cavalry scored 2+ in their last three home games (3-1, 2-1, 5-0). Mutual opponents average 3.14 goals and Vancouver's market pricing error GL_5 of 1.55 align with the over, while H2H is a neutral two-match under sample (1-0, 0-2). Home/away over-3.0 histories are 40%/50%, so the lean is structural rather than historical. |
|
| 29-08-2026 21:30 |
Paraguay Division Profesional |
Deportivo Recoleta |
- |
Olimpia Asuncion |
Over 9.0 Corners |
77% |
Expected corners 10.4 (Deportivo Recoleta avg 5.3 at home, Olimpia 7.3 away) vs line 9.0. Recent corner totals: home 5/10 over 9, away 7/10 over 9, with H2H totals 7,13,9 neutral. Mutual-opponent pressure is high with combined avg total shots 26.0 and dangerous attacks 82.7 per shared match, supporting sustained corner production. |
|
| 29-08-2026 22:00 |
Mexico Liga de Expansion |
Tlaxcala FC |
- |
Venados FC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is 3.40 ((1.10+1.70)/2 + (2.10+1.90)/2) against the 3.0 line. Home are 4/5 over 3.0 in their last 5 (totals 5,4,2,4,6) and away 3/5 over 3.0 with one push (6,6,5,2,3); H2H 2-2 and 5-1 both over. GL_5 market pricing error is high for both sides (home 1.95, away 1.75) and Venados conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away, so full-time Over is stronger than 1H (expected 1.35 vs 1.25 line). |
|
| 29-08-2026 22:30 |
USA NWSL Women |
Kansas City Current Women |
- |
North Carolina Courage Women |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 3.30 (home 1.40 scored/1.40 conceded at home; away 2.10 scored/1.70 conceded away) vs 2.75 line. KC 5 of 10 and NC 7 of 10 last matches saw 3+ goals; NC also conceded 2+ in four of their last five away matches, and away GL_5 1.55 shows moderate bookmaker mispricing toward overs. H2H is only two games (3,2 total goals), so treated as neutral. |
|
| 29-08-2026 23:00 |
USA USL Championship |
Brooklyn FC |
- |
Sporting Jax |
Over 3.0 Goals |
72% |
Expected FT total is 3.60 vs line 3.0 (home 1.30/1.70, away 1.40/2.80). Sporting JAX have conceded 2+ in five straight away games and 6 of their last 10 matches went over 3.0; both H2H meetings finished 2-2. Confidence: 50 base +12 gap +5 away history +0 H2H -5 common opponents +5 away GL_5 1.60 +5 structural = 72. |
|
| 29-08-2026 23:00 |
USA USL League One |
Portland Hearts of Pine |
- |
Fort Wayne FC |
Under 1.25 Goals 1st Half |
78% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.15 (home 0.60 scored, 0.70 conceded; away 0.80 scored, 0.20 conceded) versus a 1.25 line. Both teams stayed under 1.25 first-half goals in 7 of their last 10 matches, and both have structural low-scoring 1st-half patterns: Fort Wayne failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 5 away games, while Portland did so in 3 of their last 5 home games. |
|
| 29-08-2026 23:00 |
USA USL League One |
Chattanooga Red Wolves |
- |
AC Boise |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 3.35 (A=1.70, B=1.50, C=1.40, D=2.10) vs 2.75 line (+0.60), with home and away both 7/10 over 2.75. AC Boise conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away and mutual-opponent total is 3.16, with Chattanooga home GL_5 2.25 showing strong bookmaker mispricing. 1H was weaker (expected 1.55 vs 1.25, 50%/30% over histories), so FT Over 2.75 is the best bet (breakdown 50+12+8+8+0+5+0+4+5=92 capped to 82). |
|
| 29-08-2026 23:15 |
Panama LPF |
CD Universitario |
- |
CD Arabe Unido |
Over 0.75 First Half Goals |
70% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.10 goals (home 0.80 scored at home HT, away 0.30 conceded away HT; away 0.40 scored away HT, home 0.70 conceded home HT) vs a 0.75 line. CD Universitario have gone over 0.75 HT goals in 7 of 10 recent matches (70%) and CD Arabe Unido in 6 of 10 (60%). Full-time H2H is only two matches (both 1-0), no HT H2H data, so H2H treated neutral; market pricing error is mild (home GL5 0.90, away GL5 1.35) with no confidence boost. |
|
| 30-08-2026 00:00 |
USA USL Championship |
Oakland Roots |
- |
Orange County SC |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.20 (home 0.90 scored/1.60 conceded at home; away 1.70 scored/2.20 conceded away) vs 2.75 line. Orange County are 4 of 5 away matches over 2.75 and conceded 2+ in 3 of 5 away; Oakland 2 of 4 home matches over. H2H split 3-2/0-1 is neutral; mutual-opponent total 3.08 supports Over; home GL_5 1.70 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing. Raw 84 capped at 82 (standard ceiling). |
|
| 30-08-2026 00:00 |
USA USL Championship |
Louisville City FC |
- |
Detroit City FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.80 (A 1.70, B 0.70, C 1.60, D 1.60) vs 2.5 line. Louisville 8/10 matches over 2.5, Detroit 5/10 (not contradicting), H2H split 2/4 over. Mutual opponents total 2.91, home GL_5 2.50 and away GL_5 1.70 align Over; raw score 84 capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 30-08-2026 01:00 |
Nicaragua Apertura |
Matagalpa FC |
- |
Rancho Santana FC |
Under 1.25 First Half Goals |
78% |
HT expected total is exactly 1.25 ((0.60+0.80)/2 + (0.50+0.60)/2) vs the 1.25 line. Both teams trend under in the first half: Matagalpa 7/9 recent HT matches produced 0-1 goals (78%), Rancho 8/10 (80%). Structural under signals: Rancho averages only 0.50 first-half goals away and failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 4 away matches with HT data. Score: Base 50% + gap 0% + home HT history +8% + away HT history +10% + low HT scorers +5% + away HT scoreless +5% = 78%. |
|
| 30-08-2026 01:00 |
Mexico Liga de Expansion |
Mineros de Zacatecas |
- |
Jaiba Brava |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total = (2.20+1.40)/2 + (1.00+1.30)/2 = 2.95 vs line 2.5 (+0.45), and shot-based match potential is 5.18, both Over. Mineros are 8/10 over 2.5 and scored 2+ in their last 3 home games (5-1, 3-1, 3-3); Jaiba Brava are 5/10 over 2.5 but their last 3 all went over, while H2H is neutral (1-0, 2-2). Mutual-opponent total is 2.67 vs 2.5 and home market pricing error GL_5 1.90 (accelerating) aligns with Over. Scoring: Base 50 + gap +9 + home history +10 + away history +0 + H2H +0 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + GL_5 home +4 + GL_5 away +0 + structural form +3 = 84 capped at 82. |
|
| 30-08-2026 01:00 |
El Salvador Apertura |
Alianza FC |
- |
Atlético Balboa |
Over 2.5 Goals |
75% |
FT expected total 2.90 vs 2.5 line (Alianza home 1.00 scored/1.30 conceded; Balboa away 1.80 scored/1.70 conceded); 1H expected 1.25 vs 1.0 line but history was weak. Balboa conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away and mutual-opponent total is 3.34, supporting Over. Home GL_5 1.50 and away GL_5 2.35 (accelerating) show strong goal-line mispricing in the Over direction. |
|
| 30-08-2026 01:30 |
Panama LPF |
San Francisco FC |
- |
Plaza Amador |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.80 vs line 2.5 (home scored/conceded at home 1.90/1.20, away scored/conceded away 2.70/1.80); home 7/10 and away 9/10 recent matches over 2.5, with both H2H matches going over. Away conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches (Alajuelense 3-1, Alianza 2-4, Diriangen 4-2, Arabe 2-2), home scored 2+ in 3 straight home matches, and away bookmaker mispricing GL_5 2.65 is severe; raw score capped at standard 82 (H2H only 2 matches). |
|
| 30-08-2026 01:30 |
Honduras Liga Nacional |
Motagua |
- |
Olancho FC |
Under 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected first-half total is 0.85 (home 0.60 scored / 0.20 conceded, away 0.40 scored / 0.50 conceded) vs line 1.25, a 0.40 gap. Both teams stayed under 1.25 first-half goals in 7 of 10 matches (Motagua 7/10, Olancho 7/10), and Olancho failed to score in the first half in 3 of last 5 away. Raw score 84% capped at standard 82%: base 50% + gap 8% + home history 8% + away history 8% + low HT scorers 5% + away HT drought 5%. |
|
| 30-08-2026 02:00 |
USA USL Championship |
Monterey Bay FC |
- |
Sacramento Republic |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1H total = (0.70+0.30)/2 + (0.90+0.70)/2 = 1.30 vs line 1.0; home 1H history 5/10 over, away 4/10, H2H 1H empty. Bookmaker mispricing is strong/accelerating (home GL_5 2.00 vs GL_10 1.93; away 1.65 vs 1.43) and Sacramento's 15-point/6-place edge over Monterey adds early pressure. Score: Base 50 + gap 5 + home 0 + away 0 + H2H 0 + structural 5 + GL home 8 + GL away 5 = 73%. |
|
| 30-08-2026 02:30 |
USA USL Championship |
Las Vegas Lights FC |
- |
Charleston Battery |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.15 (A 1.30, B 1.30, C 2.50, D 1.20; (1.30+1.30)/2 + (2.50+1.20)/2) vs line 2.5 (+0.65 gap). Charleston are 7/10 (70%) over 2.5 in last 10, Las Vegas 5/10 (50%); Charleston conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away (3,2,2,2,1). Away GL_5 1.55 moderate bookmaker mispricing supports Over; mutual-opponent total 2.80 also clears 2.5; raw score 86 capped at 82 default ceiling. |
|
| 30-08-2026 02:30 |
Australia Victoria PL 1 U23 |
Langwarrin U23 |
- |
North Geelong U23 |
Over 3.5,4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.05 (home 1.10 scored / 3.10 conceded at home; away 2.00 scored / 1.90 conceded away) vs line 3.75, gap +0.30. Home 5/10 and away 6/10 matches over 3.75, H2H 3-1 total 4; mutual opponents total 4.0 and away c_avg_on_target 5.7 support Over. Scoring: base 50% + gap 6% + home history 0% + away history 5% + H2H 0% + common opponents 5% + likelihood 0% + GL_5 home 8% + GL_5 away 5% + structural weak-keeper 5% = 84% raw, capped 82%. |
|
| 30-08-2026 02:30 |
Australia Victoria PL 1 U23 |
Eltham Redbacks U23 |
- |
Melbourne Knights U23 |
Over 1.5 First Half Goals |
82% |
Expected first-half total is 2.30 vs a 1.50 line (home 1.40 scored/0.50 conceded HT at home; away 2.00 scored/0.70 conceded HT away). Melbourne Knights are 8/10 over 1.5 first-half goals, home is 5/10 and not actively contradicting; away also shows structural Over signals with c_avg_on_target 5 in mutual opponents and 3 of last 5 away conceding 2+. Market pricing error GL_5 is 1.65 home/1.50 away, both moderate and aligned; raw 85% capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 30-08-2026 02:30 |
Australia Victoria PL 1 U23 |
Brunswick Juventus U23 |
- |
Manningham Utd Blues U23 |
Manningham Utd Blues U23 -1.5 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Standings gap is 22 points (Manningham 1st, 37 pts vs Brunswick 11th, 15 pts) and mutual-opponents data strongly favours Manningham: away side has a better goals NET (-0.2 vs -0.7) and 4 of 5 stat advantages (avg goals, total shots, dangerous attacks, shot-conversion). The only H2H meeting this season ended 9-0, but recent margin form is poor — Manningham covered -1.5 in 1 of 8 matches — so confidence is capped at 65% via 2-of-3 AH signals. |
|
| 30-08-2026 04:30 |
Australia NPL Queensland U23 |
Lions FC U23 |
- |
Gold Coast Knights U23 |
Over 1.5 First Half Goals |
76% |
Expected first-half total is 2.15 ((1.50+0.60)/2 + (1.50+0.70)/2) vs a 1.5 line, a +0.65 gap. Gold Coast Knights' last 10 matches went Over 1.5 first-half goals in 8 of 10 (80%) and Lions in 5 of 10 (50%), with home HT scoring/conceding averages of 1.50/0.70. One H2H match (2-0 FT, no HT data) is neutral; away bookmaker mispricing GL_5 is 1.80, supporting the over. |
|
| 30-08-2026 05:00 |
Australia New South Wales Premier League |
Blacktown City |
- |
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 |
|
65% |
WSW U21 are 7th overall (25 pts) and 3rd away (18 pts) while Blacktown City are 15th overall (18 pts) and 15th at home (7 pts), so the away side is undervalued at +0.75. Against shared opponents WSW hold a 4-1 stat-classification lead with a goals NET of +1.45 versus Blacktown's -0.20, and the venue-adjusted expected margin is only 0.55 home goals (1.90 vs 1.35), below the 0.75 handicap. |
|
| 30-08-2026 05:00 |
Australia New South Wales Premier League |
Wollongong Wolves |
- |
Manly Utd |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 3.30 vs line 2.5 (home scored 1.60, away conceded 1.10, away scored 1.80, home conceded 2.10); Wollongong 7/10 and Manly 5/10 recent matches over 2.5. Single H2H (0-1) is neutral; mutual opponents total 2.90 supports Over. Scoring: base 50% + gap 15% + home history 8% + away history 0% + H2H 0% + common opponents 5% + likelihood 3% + GL_5 home 0% + GL_5 away 0% (1.20 mild) + structural top-4 vs bottom-4 5% = 86%, capped to standard 82%. |
|
| 30-08-2026 05:00 |
Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
Eltham Redbacks |
- |
Melbourne Knights |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
70% |
Expected total 3.35 vs 3.25 line (home: 2.30 scored/1.50 conceded at home; away: 1.90 scored/1.00 conceded away). Mutual-opponent total is 3.75, the single H2H ended 4-0, and both market mispricing signals align Over (home GL_5 1.60, away GL_5 1.95 accelerating). Home last 10 over 3.25 in 6/10, away last 10 over 3.25 in 3/10 but with strong venue-scored totals supporting Over. |
|
| 30-08-2026 05:00 |
Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
Bulleen Lions |
- |
Northcote City |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 3.55 (home 2.40 scored/1.60 conceded, away 1.70 scored/1.40 conceded) vs line 3.0 (+0.55). Bulleen home history 7/10 Over 3.0 (70%); Northcote 4/10 Over with 3 pushes, so 70% not under. Away defensive fragility: Northcote conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (North Geelong 2, Bentleigh 3, Melbourne Knights 3). Bookmaker mispricing: away GL_5 1.55 moderate, aligning Over. Scoring: base 50 + gap 10 + home history 8 + away history 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents 0 + likelihood 3 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 3 + structural defensive fragility 5 + form momentum 3 = 82%. |
|
| 30-08-2026 05:00 |
Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
Brunswick Juventus |
- |
Manningham United Blues |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total is 4.05 ((2.40+3.00)/2 + (1.30+1.40)/2) vs line 3.5 (+0.55); Manningham away games are 4/5 over 3.5 and they have conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away with c_avg_on_target 7.6. Mutual opponents average 4.28 total goals and both GL_5 pricing errors support Over (home 1.55, away 2.00); confidence 82% capped (50 base +10 gap +10 away history +8 GL_5 away +5 away fragility +5 mutual opponents -3 away scoring drought). |
|
| 30-08-2026 05:00 |
Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
Melbourne Victory NPL |
- |
Port Melbourne SC |
Melbourne Victory NPL -2.5 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Melbourne Victory sit 4th (27 pts) vs Port Melbourne 14th (9 pts), and mutual opponents strongly favour Victory: 2.2 avg goals/0.9 conceded vs Port's 0.3/1.7, with Victory winning all five net stat comparisons. Port's away fragility is clear (39 conceded in their last 10 away), though Victory covered -2.5 in only 3 of 10 recent games (1 of last 5), so this is capped at 65% confidence with 2 of 3 AH signals supporting. |
|
| 30-08-2026 14:15 |
Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
Melhus |
- |
Strindheim |
Over 3.5/4.0 Goals |
80% |
Full-time expected total 4.10 (home 2.60 scored/1.50 conceded at home, away 2.20 scored/1.90 conceded away) vs split line 3.5/4.0. Home 6/10 and away 6/10 exceed 3.5; H2H one match 2-1 total 3 neutral; mutual total 4.46 clears. Scoring: Base 50% + gap +7% + home history +5% + away history +5% + common +5% + GL_5 home +8% = 80% (H2H +0%, likelihood +0%, GL_5 away +0%, structural +0% excluded via stacking). |
|
| 30-08-2026 14:30 |
Switzerland Super League |
FC Vaduz |
- |
Grasshoppers |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 3.70 vs a 3.0 line (Vaduz home: 2.10 scored/1.80 conceded; Grasshoppers away: 1.60 scored/1.90 conceded). Vaduz have gone over 3.0 in 6/10 matches and Grasshoppers in 5/10, with Grasshoppers showing away defensive fragility (3+ of last 5 away conceded 2+). Scoring: 50 base +14 gap +5 home history +0 away history +0 H2H +0 common opponents +0 likelihood +5 home GL5 bookmaker mispricing (1.60) +0 away GL5 +5 away fragility +3 form momentum = 82%. |
|
| 30-08-2026 14:30 |
Germany 3. Liga |
TSV Havelse |
- |
Waldhof Mannheim |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals 3.90 (A=1.6, B=1.8, C=2.0, D=2.4) vs line 3.25, gap +0.65. Both teams 6 of 10 matches over 3.25; H2H 2/2 over (4 and 5 total goals); mutual opponent total 3.72; away conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away (5,2,3,4); home GL_5 1.85 strong bookmaker mispricing. Score: 50 base +10 gap +5 home history +5 common opponents +8 GL_5 home +5 away fragility = 83 raw, capped at standard 82. |
|
| 30-08-2026 14:45 |
Netherlands Eredivisie |
Telstar |
- |
Ajax |
Over 4.5 1st Half Corners |
82% |
Expected 1H corners 6.05 vs line 4.5: Telstar 1H corners 1.90 for/3.60 conceded, Ajax 1H corners 5.40 for/1.20 conceded. Out of last 10, Telstar's matches went over 4.5 1H corners 60% (6/10) and Ajax's 90% (9/10). Eredivisie tempo and Ajax's away 1H corner rate support Over 4.5, with no H2H 1H corner data. |
|
| 30-08-2026 14:45 |
Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
VVV |
- |
FC Emmen |
Over 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.85 (VVV 0.80 scored at home HT / FC Emmen 1.20 conceded away HT; FC Emmen 0.70 scored away HT / VVV 1.00 conceded home HT) vs 1.0/1.5 line, a +0.60 gap. VVV are 6/10 over 1.25 home first halves and FC Emmen are 7/10 over 1.25 away first halves. Scoring: Base 50% + gap 10% + home HT history 5% + away HT history 8% + H2H 0% + structural 0% + GL_5 home 8% + GL_5 away 8% = 89% capped at 82% standard ceiling; market pricing error GL_5 home 1.90 and away 2.15 both point over. |
|
| 30-08-2026 15:00 |
Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
Derry City |
- |
Shamrock Rovers |
Over 9 Corners |
80% |
Expected corners 10.80 vs 9.0 line: Derry home avg corners 6.20 for/5.40 against, Shamrock away 5.10 for/4.90 against. Derry's last 10 matches went over 9 corners in 8 of 10; Shamrock 4 of 10 over with 3 pushes at exactly 9. H2H corner totals were 8,9,13,13 (split), and mutual-opponent shot/dangerous-attack volume supports pressure. |
|
| 30-08-2026 15:00 |
Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
Drøbak/Frogn |
- |
Fram |
Drøbak/Frogn -0.25 (Asian Handicap) |
65% |
Drøbak/Frogn hold an 8W-2L Asian Handicap record over their last 10 (Fram 1W-4L last 5), and the mutual-opponent comparison gives home a 4-1 stat edge with goals net +0.89 vs -1.45. Home also sit 10th vs Fram 13th in the standings, making home -0.25 the best available edge; goal-line and corner Over bets fail match-history thresholds. |
|
| 30-08-2026 15:00 |
Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
Eik Tønsberg |
- |
Sotra |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total is 3.40 (A=1.5, B=1.0, C=1.8, D=2.5) vs the 2.75 line; Eik's recent matches are 7/10 over 2.75 (70%) and Sotra's 6/10 over (60%), with both H2H meetings over (6-0, 2-1). Sotra sit 4th vs Eik 13th, Eik concede 2.5 goals at home and Sotra score 1.8 away, while home GL_5 bookmaker mispricing is a severe 3.05 (accelerating vs 2.08), adding over edge. Raw score 92% capped at standard ceiling 82%. |
|
| 30-08-2026 15:00 |
Czechia First League |
Viktoria Plzen |
- |
Slovacko |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 3.80 (Plzen home 2.10 scored/2.20 conceded; Slovacko away 1.30 scored/2.00 conceded) vs line 3.0. Mutual-opponents total 3.10, Slovacko's away c_avg_on_target 5.0, and 3 of last 5 away matches conceded 2+ all support the over. Home goal-line mispricing GL_5 2.75 is severe and accelerating; raw score 84 capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 30-08-2026 15:15 |
France Ligue 1 |
Rennes |
- |
Le Mans |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
76% |
First-half expected total is 1.65 vs a 1.25 line (gap +0.40), built from Rennes home HT 0.90 scored/0.90 conceded and Le Mans away HT 0.80 scored/0.70 conceded. Rennes 1st-half matches went over 1.25 in 7/10 (70%) and Le Mans in 5/10 (50%), with bookmaker mispricing GL_5 elevated at 1.65/1.70 and no H2H to contradict. |
|
| 30-08-2026 15:15 |
France Ligue 1 |
Rennes |
- |
Le Mans |
Over 1.0,1.5 First Half Goals |
73% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.65 vs a 1.25 line: Rennes home HT averages 0.90 scored/0.90 conceded, Le Mans away HT averages 0.80 scored/0.70 conceded, a +0.40 gap. Rennes exceed 1.25 HT goals in 7/10 recent matches (70%) and Le Mans in 5/10 (50%); H2H is empty. Both teams show moderate bookmaker mispricing on goal lines aligned with the Over (home GL_5 1.65, away GL_5 1.70). |
|
| 30-08-2026 15:30 |
Hungary NB II |
Karcagi SE |
- |
Fehervar FC |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
77% |
Expected FT total 2.70 = (1.30+1.50)/2 + (1.30+1.30)/2 vs 2.25 line. Karcagi 6/10 and Fehervar 7/10 over 2.25; Fehervar conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (2,3,2); mutual-opponent total 2.84; home GL_5 2.25 aligned with Over. Score: Base 50 + gap +5 + away history +8 + common opponents +5 + GL_5 home +4 + structural fragility +5 = 77 (home history/likelihood excluded per stacking discipline). |
|
| 30-08-2026 15:30 |
Germany Bundesliga I |
Augsburg |
- |
Schalke |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
82% |
Augsburg 1.60 scored/1.70 conceded at home plus Schalke 2.10 scored/1.60 conceded away create an expected FT total of 3.50 vs a 2.75 line. Augsburg went over 2.75 goals in 7 of 10 recent matches and Schalke in 7 of 9 unique, while Schalke away conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away (Hallescher 2-5, Erzgebirge Aue 2-4, Gutersloh 2-1). H2H is empty and market pricing error is only mild (GL_5 1.10/1.25), so the standard 82% ceiling applies. |
|
| 30-08-2026 16:00 |
Bulgaria First League |
Spartak Varna |
- |
Ludogorets Razgrad |
Ludogorets Razgrad -1.0 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Ludogorets lead the league (1st, 16 pts) vs Spartak Varna (9th, 7 pts) and the venue-matched mutual-opponent comparison gives Ludogorets a goals NET of +1.57 vs Spartak's +0.20, with an away advantage in 4 of 5 comparison stats. The March 2026 H2H at Varna ended 5-1 to Ludogorets. Recent AH cover for -1 is thin (2 of Ludogorets' last 10 matches won by 2+), so confidence is capped at 65. |
|
| 30-08-2026 16:00 |
Slovenia Prva Liga |
NK Brinje Grosuplje |
- |
NK Celje |
NK Celje -0.75 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Celje sit 3rd (8 pts) while Brinje are 9th (5 pts), and Celje have covered the Asian Handicap in 4 of their last 5 matches while Brinje have covered only 2 of 5. Against common opponents both sides have identical 3W-1D-3L records and equal net goals (-0.14), so the common-opponent signal is neutral; two of the three Asian Handicap signals support the away side. |
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| 30-08-2026 16:00 |
Cyprus Division 1 |
AEL Limassol |
- |
Anorthosis Famagusta |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total = (1.50+1.40)/2 + (1.80+1.50)/2 = 3.10 vs line 2.25 (+0.85); AEL over 2.25 in 7/10, Anorthosis 5/10, H2H 2/3 over. Away defensive fragility (4 of last 5 away conceded 2+) and away GL_5 2.15 accelerating market pricing error support Over. Confidence: Base 50 + gap 15 + home history 8 + away history 0 + H2H 5 + common opponents 0 + likelihood 0 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 4 + structural 5 = 87 raw, capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 30-08-2026 16:00 |
Cyprus Division 1 |
AEL Limassol |
- |
Anorthosis Famagusta |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total = (1.5+1.4)/2 + (1.8+1.5)/2 = 3.10 vs line 2.25 (gap +0.85); AEL home record 7/10 over, Anorthosis 5/10; H2H 2/3 over. Away Anorthosis GL_5 2.15 (GL_10 1.68, accelerating market pricing error) and conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches. Score: base 50 + gap 15 + home history 8 + H2H 5 + away GL_5 8 + away fragility 5 = 91 raw, capped at 82 (standard ceiling; away history 50% below elevated-ceiling condition). |
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