| 02-11-2026 10:00 |
Ukraine Persha Liga |
Kolos Kovalivka II |
- |
FC Metalist Kharkiv |
Under 2.25 Goals |
75% |
Season venue averages give a 2.55 expected total ((1.30+0.90)/2 + (1.10+1.80)/2), but the recent role-specific form is far lower: Kolos Kovalivka II's last five home games produced 2,1,1,1,5 goals (4/5 under 2.25, the 5-0 being a cup-level outlier) and Metalist Kharkiv's last five away games produced 0,1,0,1,1 goals — only three goals in five away matches, 5/5 under 2.25. Mutual-opponent data (g=4 each) yields a combined 1.875 goals (home 1.75 for/0.75 against; away 0.25 for/1.00 against) — an Under lean — and the model's Over 2.5 probability is just 40%; both teams also failed to score in 2+ of their last five games in role and both sit bottom-half with negative goal difference (13th, -10; 11th, -3), giving the two structural Under reasons required. Metalist's market pricing error is moderate and accelerating (GL_5 1.65 vs GL_10 1.35), with realised totals repeatedly settling below the line, supporting Under on the quarter line (full win on 0-1 goals, half win on exactly 2) at 75% — above the 72% Under threshold. |
|
| 02-11-2026 12:55 |
UAE Reserve League |
Baniyas SC U23 |
- |
Al Jazira SC U23 |
Over 3.0 Goals |
72% |
Expected total is (1.30+1.40)/2 + (2.10+1.80)/2 = 3.30 vs the 3.0 line, and shot-based match potential (33.4/4.96 = 6.7) also clears the line. Al Jazira has conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games (3, 3, 2, 4) and their shared-opponent shots-on-target conceded is 5.0 per game — a clear weak-keeper Over signal; their away matches went over 3.0 in 5 of 8 (62.5%) and the mutual-opponent goal total is 3.82 per game (h 2.5/1.33, a 1.8/2.0). Both teams show bookmaker mispricing on the goal line pointing the same way (home last-5 error 1.95 vs 1.38 over ten, accelerating; away 1.75 vs 1.65), but home history at only 44-57% over 3.0 and a single H2H (3-1, 4 goals — neutral by sample rule) keep this at 72% rather than the 82% checklist ceiling; no 1st-half goal line or corner prices were posted, so the full-time goal line is the only qualifying market. |
|
| 02-11-2026 13:15 |
Tanzania Premier League |
Mashujaa FC |
- |
Pamba SC |
Over 2.0 Goals |
81% |
Mashujaa average 0.90 scored and 1.60 conceded at home, while Pamba average 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded away, giving an expected total of 2.55 against the 2.0 line. Mashujaa's last 10 had 6/10 matches over 2.0, and Pamba's last 10 had only one match below 2.0 (4 wins, 5 pushes at exactly 2); Pamba also conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games while Mashujaa scored 2+ in each of their last three home games. The home team's bookmaker pricing error is elevated and accelerating in the Over direction (GL_5 1.65 vs GL_10 1.23), while the single 0-0 H2H is too small a sample to veto and the mutual-opponent goals total of 1.91 is essentially line-neutral. |
|
| 02-11-2026 14:55 |
Saudi Arabia Division 1 |
Al Zulfi |
- |
Al Jandal |
Al Zulfi -0.75 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Al Zulfi rank 6th with 14 points and a +6 goal difference while Al Jandal are 15th on 6 points, and Al Jandal are 0W-0D-3L away in the current league. Mutual-opponent data strongly favors Al Zulfi across all five compared stats, including goals NET +0.10 vs -0.63 and shots NET +1.20 vs -2.63, while Al Zulfi's Asian Handicap record is 6-4 last 10 and 3-2 last 5. The -0.75 line is justified, though Al Zulfi's home draw frequency means a one-goal win only returns half. |
|
| 02-11-2026 15:00 |
Georgia Erovnuli Liga |
Torpedo Kutaisi |
- |
Dila Gori |
Over 2.75 Goals |
80% |
Averages-based expected total is 3.55 goals — Torpedo Kutaisi score 1.60 and concede 2.20 at home, Dila Gori score 1.60 and concede 1.70 away: (1.60+1.70)/2 + (1.60+2.20)/2 = 1.65 + 1.90 — well above the 2.75 line (+0.80 gap), and the shot-based Match Potential of 44.8 shots / 6.675 shots-per-goal also clears the line comfortably. Dila Gori's last 10 produced Over 2.5 in 8 of 10 (80%) and Torpedo's in 6 of 10 (60%), with recent scorelines of 3-1, 5-goal and 4-goal games throughout; Dila have conceded 2+ in 8 of their 10 away matches. Mutual opponents point the same way: combined goals for/against across shared opposition = (1.4+1.9+1.63+1.75)/2 = 3.34, clearing the line, and Torpedo's market pricing error is 2.30 on the last 5 (accelerating versus 1.83 over 10), signalling a persistently soft opening line in the Over direction. The 1st half was checked and rejected: expected 1.60 vs a 1.25 line is only a +0.35 gap with just 50%/40% Over 1.5 half-time history, so full-time Over carries the edge. Confidence: base 50% + gap from line +15% + home history 60% +5% + away history 80% +10% + H2H 50% +0% + common opponents +5% + likelihood (secondary) +0% + market pricing error home +8% + market pricing error away (1.30, mild) +0% + away defensive fragility +5% = raw 98% capped at the standard 82% tier ceiling, then scaled to 80% for reproducibility given the neutral 2-of-4 H2H and 60% home Over rate. |
|
| 02-11-2026 15:00 |
Bahrain Kings Cup |
Umm Al Hassam |
- |
Bahrain SC |
Over 1.25 1st Half Goals |
65% |
1st-half expected total = (0.80+1.20)/2 + (0.70+0.40)/2 = 1.00+0.55 = 1.55 vs the 1.25 line — a +0.30 gap, materially larger than the full-time signal (2.95 vs 3.0 = -0.05). Bahrain SC concedes 1.20 first-half goals away (highest relevant defensive number) while Umm Al Hassam scores 0.80 HT at home; the away side has produced 2+ HT goals in 3 of 6 recent games and has not had a zero-goal first half in any of those six (avg 1.83 HT goals), while Umm Al Hassam has hit 2+ first-half goals in 5 of 8 (62.5%). Bookmaker mispricing backs this direction: Bahrain SC GL_5 = 1.60 vs GL_10 = 1.40 (accelerating, and expected total sits above the line), adding edge, whereas the full-time Over 3.0 is unsupported (home 3/8, away 3/6 over that line, mutual-opponent total only 2.92). Confidence: base 50% + gap +5% + home HT history +5% + away HT history 0% + H2H 0% (empty) + structural 0% + GL_5 away +5% + GL_5 home 0% = 65%. |
|
| 02-11-2026 15:30 |
Bulgaria Second League |
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich |
- |
FK Fratria |
Over 2.75 Goals |
65% |
Averages-based expected total: (1.00 home scored at home + 1.20 away conceded away)/2 + (1.40 away scored away + 2.30 home conceded at home)/2 = 1.10 + 1.85 = 2.95, which clears the 2.75 line by 0.20 (the market itself moved from 2.5 up to 2.75, confirming over money). Match history supports it: Dobrudzha went over 2.5 in 7 of their last 10 (totals 6,3,3,3,4,2,4,2,0,6) and Fratria in 6 of 10 (3,3,2,3,3,2,4,2,1,4), and Dobrudzha's defence leaks 2.30 goals per home game with 5.5 shots-on-target conceded. H2H is empty (neutral) and bookmaker mispricing is only mild (home GL_5 1.25, away GL_5 0.40), so this is a modest-edge Over rather than a high-confidence play; the over-first rule applies since the expected total sits above the line and history leans over. |
|
| 02-11-2026 15:45 |
Kuwait League |
Al Naser SC |
- |
Al Shabab Club |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total = (1.60+1.80)/2 + (1.00+1.60)/2 = 3.00 vs the 2.75 line, and Al Naser's last 10 produced 7/10 over 2.5 with their last five all reaching 3+ goals (3-0, 2-1, 1-7, 2-1, 1-2). Mutual-opponent games average 3.72 goals (1.57+1.86+1.40+2.60)/2, clearly above the line, and Al Shabab concede 5.5 shots on target per game (5.2 vs shared opponents) — a structural Over signal despite their own modest 1.00 away goals. Away history is only 5/10 over 2.5 and H2H is 1-1 in two meetings (0-3 and 1-1, neutral sample), so confidence is held at 76%; bookmaker pricing error is mild (GL_5 1.40 home / 1.30 away) so no adjustment applied. Scoring: Base 50% + gap from line +5% + home history +8% + away history +0% + H2H +0% + common opponents +5% + likelihood +3% + GL_5 home +0% + GL_5 away +0% + structural (weak GK/high shots conceded) +5% = 76%. |
|
| 02-11-2026 16:00 |
Czechia 2. Liga |
Banik Ostrava B |
- |
Vysocina Jihlava |
Over 3.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time total = (home scored 1.80 + away conceded 2.00)/2 + (away scored 2.20 + home conceded 1.40)/2 = 1.90 + 1.80 = 3.70, a 0.70-goal cushion above the 3.0 line. Vysocina Jihlava's last 10 matches average 4.2 goals with 6 of 10 going over 3.0 (2 more pushing), and their away games average 2.20 scored/2.00 conceded, while Banik Ostrava B's home games average 3.2 total (4 of 10 over 3.0, 2 pushing). Critically, the away side's goal-line pricing error is severe — GL_5 = 2.35 versus GL_10 = 1.63 (accelerating) — showing the opening line is repeatedly set too low for their matches, which aligns with the Over direction; Banik's GL_5 = 1.15 is mild. Mutual-opponent totals (2.48) temper the edge, but the pace and the away side's accelerating mispricing favor the Over. |
|
| 02-11-2026 16:00 |
Slovenia 2. SNL |
NK Brezice |
- |
ND Beltinci |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected goals are 3.80: Brezice average 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded at home, while Beltinci average 3.10 scored and 1.10 conceded away. Beltinci are 6/10 over 3.0 with two exact-3 pushes and Brezice 5/10 with one push, and the 3.80 projection clears the 3.0 line by 0.80; the away-side bookmaker mispricing is also strong (GL_5 2.40 vs GL_10 2.20, accelerating), with home at 1.60. The 1st-half over 1.25 is weaker: expected 1.50 but only 5/10 in each team's HT history, so the full-time Over is the best bet. |
|
| 02-11-2026 16:00 |
AFC Champions League Elite |
Al Sadd |
- |
Al Ahli Jeddah |
Over 3.25 Goals |
74% |
Expected full-time total = (home 2.50 scored + away 1.80 conceded)/2 + (away 2.40 scored + home 1.80 conceded)/2 = 2.15 + 2.10 = 4.25 vs the 3.25 split line, a +1.00 gap; a shot-based cross-check (29.7 combined shots / ~6.2 shots-per-goal ratio) also clears the line comfortably. Both sides are in goal-heavy form — Al Sadd have gone Over 3.25 in 6/10 recent games and Al Ahli in 7/10, with recent match totals averaging ~4.2-4.3 goals each — and the lone H2H (1-2, Nov 2025 = 3 goals) is neutral given a 1-match sample, so it does not veto the Over. Structural support: Al Ahli's away defence has conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games, and the venue-matched mutual-opponent set averages 4.84 total goals per game; the away team's GL_5 of 1.75 is accelerating over its 1.35 GL_10, indicating bookmaker underpricing of goals in the Over direction (home GL_5 1.00 is neutral). Over 3.25 fully wins on 4+ goals with 3 goals only a half-loss, making the Over-first pick the strongest across markets. |
|
| 02-11-2026 16:00 |
Portugal U23 League |
Leixoes U23 |
- |
Rio Ave U23 |
Over 2.75 Goals |
68% |
Expected full-time goals are 2.90, calculated as (1.80+0.90)/2 + (1.50+1.60)/2, which clears the 2.75 line slightly. Leixoes home matches are 8/10 over 2.75 goals while Rio Ave's matches are 5/10, and the sole supplied H2H was Rio Ave 3-1 Leixoes, a 4-goal game. Market pricing error is not strong (GL_5 0.85 home, 1.05 away), so the lean is based mainly on the modest expected-goals edge and home over trend. |
|
| 02-11-2026 16:00 |
Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
Karpaty Lviv |
- |
FC Kudrivka |
Karpaty Lviv -1.25 (Asian Handicap) |
66% |
Karpaty sit 5th (16 pts) to Kudrivka's 16th/bottom (5 pts), and vs venue-matched common opponents Karpaty are 6-3-1 with +1.3 goals, +3.0 shots, +2.4 on-target and +19.4 dangerous-attack NETs, while Kudrivka are 0-2-4 with −1.17 goals NET — a clean 5-category sweep toward the home side. Karpaty have beaten bottom-half sides 3-0, 3-0 and 2-0 at home this season (beating 16th-place Bukovyna 3-0), and Kudrivka have lost 4 of 6 against shared opposition, so a two-goal margin is realistic. The caution is Karpaty's recent handicap form (only 1 of last 5 AH covers, with narrow 2-1/1-1 results), but the standings gap and mutual-opponent dominance are the decisive 2-of-3 signals. Over 3.25 goals was rejected: Karpaty's own games clear only 30% at that line (expected total 3.05 vs line 3.25, mutual-opponent total 2.67), and no corner line is posted to evaluate. |
|
| 02-11-2026 17:00 |
Serbia Prva Liga |
Metalac Gornji |
- |
Jedinstvo UB |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected goals = (1.30+1.90)/2 + (1.20+1.50)/2 = 2.95, clearing the 2.5 line by 0.45; Metalac are 6/10 Over 2.5 and Jedinstvo are 7/10 Over 2.5 in their last 10, with Jedinstvo conceding 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games. Mutual-opponent goals average 2.875 and Jedinstvo's bookmaker mispricing is elevated (GL_5 1.75 vs GL_10 1.50, accelerating), supporting the Over despite the single H2H being a 1-0 Under. The 1st-half Over 1.0 was rejected because both teams had only 3/10 half-time totals over 1.0. |
|
| 02-11-2026 17:00 |
Norway Toppserien Women |
Valerenga Women |
- |
Lyn Women |
Over 3.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total = (2.80+1.70)/2 + (2.10+1.20)/2 = 3.90 vs the 3.5 line, a +0.40 gap: Valerenga average 2.80 goals, 16.6 shots and 8.0 on target at home, while Lyn's away games average 2.10 scored / 1.70 conceded (3.8 total) and their last four away matches all produced over 3.5 goals (5, 5, 4, 5). Mutual-opponent totals average 3.63 (clears the line) with Valerenga holding a 4-1 stat edge and a goals NET of +1.12 vs +0.38, and Lyn's market pricing error is moderate and accelerating in the Over direction (GL_5 1.75 vs GL_10 1.40). The 1st half line is far weaker value (expected 1.55 vs 1.5, home 50% / away 30% over 1.5 HT), and the single H2H meeting (Lyn 2-0) is too small a sample to veto; Valerenga have scored 2+ in each of their last three home games, supporting the Over. |
|
| 02-11-2026 17:00 |
Israel Leumit Liga |
Hapoel Kfar Shalem |
- |
Ironi Modiin |
Over 3.25 Goals |
78% |
Expected goals = (2.30+2.10)/2 + (1.40+1.80)/2 = 3.80 vs a 3.25 line (3.0/3.5 split, over 1.85) — a +0.55 gap — with Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7/10 over 3.25 (last three home games 4-0, 2-1, 3-1, 17-7 in six home matches) and Ironi Modiin 6/10 over 3.25 and 8/10 over 2.5, plus a shot-based cross-check of 24.7 combined shots ÷ 6.95 shots-per-goal ≈ 3.55 that also clears the line. Mutual-opponent goals total 3.39 (H 2.2/1.7 vs A 1.5/1.38) agrees and the 3rd-vs-13th quality gap supports an open game; H2H is only two matches (0-0, 1-1) so it is neutral by rule, and the 1st-half line (expect 1.60 vs 1.25, only 50%/40% HT history) is the weaker signal so full-time is preferred. Bookmaker pricing error is mild (GL_5 = 1.00 home / 1.15 away, no adjustment) — the edge here is structural, not variance-driven. |
|
| 02-11-2026 17:00 |
Israel Leumit Liga |
Hapoel Raanana |
- |
SC Kiryat Yam |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total = (2.10+1.80)/2 + (2.30+1.20)/2 = 1.95+1.75 = 3.70 goals, a 0.70 gap above the 3.0 line, with Hapoel Raanana at 2.10 scored / 1.20 conceded per home game and Kiryat Yam at 2.30 scored / 1.80 conceded per away game; the shot-based cross-check (54.0 combined shot volume / 6.65 goals-to-shots ratio) also clears the line comfortably. Match history backs it: Kiryat Yam went over 3.0 in 7 of 10 (1 push, 2 under) and Raanana 5 of 10 (3 pushes, 2 under), a combined 12 overs / 4 pushes / 4 unders, while mutual-opponent totals average (1.8+0.9+2.29+2.71)/2 = 3.85 and Kiryat Yam have conceded 2+ in 4 of 6 away games (5-1 at Bnei Yehuda, 4-2 at Rishon Lezion, 3-2 at Kfar Shalem) with 5.57 shots on target conceded against shared opposition. The lone H2H (0-2, Dec 2025) is a one-match sample and treated as neutral, and bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 home 0.75, away 1.35; both stabilising vs GL_10), so no variance boost is applied; 50% base +10% gap +8% away history +5% home history +5% common opponents +5% away defensive fragility = 83%, capped at the 82% standard ceiling (H2H support condition for the elevated tier is not met). |
|
| 02-11-2026 17:30 |
Bulgaria First League |
Arda Kardzhali |
- |
Septemvri Sofia |
Over 2.25 Goals |
70% |
Full-time expected total = (home scored 1.30 + away conceded 1.90)/2 + (away scored 0.90 + home conceded 1.70)/2 = 1.60 + 1.30 = 2.90 goals, comfortably above the 2.25 line (currently priced 2.0/2.5). The Over case is structural: bottom-of-table Septemvri (14th, 8 pts) concede 1.90 goals per away game and have shipped 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches (2-0 at Cherno More, 2-1 at Ludogorets, 2-1 at Lokomotiv GO), while Arda also leak 1.70 at home, and the venue-matched mutual-opponent total is 2.44, clearing the line. Bookmaker mispricing is only mild (home GL_5 1.20, away GL_5 0.75 well-calibrated) so confidence is kept moderate, and the cluster of recent exactly-2-goal Arda home results (1-1, 2-0) tempers the edge on this split line rather than reversing the Over call. |
|
| 02-11-2026 18:00 |
Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
San Martin De Burzaco |
- |
UAI Urquiza |
Under 2.75 Goals |
74% |
Full-time expected goals = (1.10+1.00)/2 + (1.00+1.30)/2 = 2.20, a clear 0.55 below the 2.75 line. UAI Urquiza is the engine of this Under: only 10 goals scored in 20 away games (0.5/game), 13 away draws, under 2.5 in all four sampled away matches (totals 2,0,2,1), and 8/10 of their last ten overall finishing under 2.75; San Martin is also 6/10 clean plus 2 half-under at 2.75 in their last ten, the season H2H was 0-0, the mutual-opponent aggregate is just 1.70 goals, and the likelihood model puts under 2.5 at 70%. Bookmaker mispricing is only modest (away GL_5 1.30, accelerating vs 0.85) and does not overturn the structural low-scoring setup; the main risk is San Martin's home venue trending over 2.5 in 3 of 5 (the market also moved 2.25->2.75), which is why confidence sits at 74% rather than the 82% ceiling. |
|
| 02-11-2026 18:00 |
Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
Deportivo Liniers |
- |
CA Ituzaingo |
Over 2.25 Goals |
81% |
Expected full-time goals are (1.30+1.90)/2 + (0.90+1.20)/2 = 2.65, which is 0.40 above the 2.25 line. Both role-specific histories are 3/5 over 2.25, and the mutual-opponent goals total is 2.55; CA Ituzaingo conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away matches and shows strong accelerating bookmaker mispricing on the goal line (GL_5 2.25 vs GL_10 1.60, while Liniers GL_5 is only 0.45). Raw score is about 86%, capped to 81% under the standard ceiling because the expected-total gap is below 0.50 goals. |
|
| 02-11-2026 18:00 |
Denmark Superligaen |
Sonderjyske |
- |
FC Copenhagen |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 3.55 — (Sonderjyske home scored 1.60 + Copenhagen away conceded 0.80)/2 plus (Copenhagen away scored 1.90 + Sonderjyske home conceded 2.80)/2 — clearing the 3.0 line by 0.55. Sonderjyske home matches were 7/10 over 3.0 with two pushes, mutual-opponent goals total 3.095 also clears the line, and Sonderjyske’s GL_5 of 1.80 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction. Base 50 + gap +10 + home history +8 + mutual opponents +5 + home bookmaker mispricing +5 + quality-gap structural +5 = 83, capped at the standard 82 ceiling; the 1H Over 1.25 line also leans Over (1.75 expected vs 1.25) but has weaker away-side history, so the full-time goal line is the best bet. |
|
| 02-11-2026 18:05 |
Sweden Superettan |
Landskrona BoIS |
- |
Orebro SK |
Over 4.5 1st Half Asian Corners |
66% |
Landskrona's home first-half corner environment is the standout edge: their last five home matches produced HT corner totals of 11, 5, 3, 6 and 5 — 4 of 5 (80%) over 4.5 — averaging 6.0, and across all last 10 games they cleared 4.5 first-half corners in 8/10. The formula-based expectation (E_ht 4.40 own + G_ht 2.40 away blended with conceded rates) gives ~5.6, comfortably above the 4.5 line, and the single H2H produced 14 total corners (2 v 12), confirming Landskrona's corner-generating pressure at home. The main risk is Orebro's low-corner away profile (HT totals 4,5,3,3,8,4 — only 2 of 6 over 4.5, and they concede few HT corners), so I hold confidence at 66% rather than higher; still the home-venue tendency and the ~+1.1 expected-corners cushion over the line, at 1.825, make this the best over-first play in a match where the goal-line (40% over 3.0) and the draw-prone -0.5 handicap (Landskrona only 1 win in last 5 home) both lack conviction. |
|
| 02-11-2026 18:15 |
AFC Champions League Elite |
Al Ittihad Jeddah |
- |
Al Ain SCC |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
1st-half expected goals: home scores 0.90 & concedes 0.80 per first half at home, away scores 1.20 & concedes 0.80 per first half away → (0.90+0.80)/2 + (1.20+0.80)/2 = 1.85, a +0.60 gap over the 1.25 line (the full-time 3.25 line at 3.55 expected offers only a +0.30 gap and is contradicted by Al Ittihad's 2-of-10 full-time Over 3.5 record). Both teams are 6-of-10 (60%) Over 1.25 in first halves over their last 10 (Al Ain: 3,4,2,2,3,2 HT goals; Al Ittihad: 2,2,2,3,2,3), confirming an early-scoring pattern from both sides. No previous head-to-head exists, so neutral. Market pricing error is only mild (away GL_5 1.20, home GL_5 0.80 well-calibrated — no confidence inflation). Confidence: base 50 + gap +12 + home HT history +5 + away HT history +5 + early-scoring structural +5 = 77%, calibrated to ~70% given the 60% realised 2+ HT hit rate. |
|
| 02-11-2026 18:30 |
Hungary NB II |
Diosgyori VTK |
- |
Kecskemeti TE |
Over 3.0 Goals |
73% |
Expected total = (1.80+1.40)/2 + (2.90+1.50)/2 = 1.60+2.20 = 3.80 goals, a +0.80 gap over the 3.0 line (home Diosgyori scores 1.80/concedes 1.50 at home; Kecskemeti scores 2.90/concedes 1.40 away). Kecskemeti are the key Over driver: 6 of their last 10 away games went over 3.0 (avg ~4 goals, including 5-4, 6-1, 4-0, 3-1) and they conceded 2+ in 4 of the last 5 away, while Diosgyori's home games sit at ~3.0 total with 4 over / 2 pushes / 4 under. Mutual opponents reinforce it: mutual_total = (1.75+1.38+1.86+1.86)/2 = 3.43 > 3.0, and the shot-based match potential (~10.1 from 60 total shots ÷ 5.97 shots-per-goal) qualifies well above the line. Bookmaker mispricing is severe on Kecskemeti (GL_5 = 2.50 vs GL_10 = 1.88, accelerating) and points the same direction as the Over, whereas Diosgyori's GL_5 = 0.95 is well-calibrated; H2H is empty, so no veto. Confidence 73% (base 50 + gap from line +15 + away history +5 + common opponents +5 + away GL_5 half-edge +4 + away defensive fragility +5, leniency held back for Diosgyori's sub-50% home Over rate). |
|
| 02-11-2026 19:30 |
Poland I Liga |
Stal Rzeszow |
- |
Puszcza Niepolomice |
Over 2.75 Goals |
73% |
Expected total = (1.90+1.60)/2 + (1.60+1.20)/2 = 3.15, a 0.40-goal edge over the 2.75 line (Stal Rzeszow score 1.90/concede 1.20 at home; Puszcza score 1.60/concede 1.60 away). Both sides have gone Over 2.5 in 6 of their last 10 matches (60% each), Puszcza conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (2, 4, 3) and the only H2H meeting this season finished 5 goals (4-1), with last season's fixture 2-2. Stal Rzeszow's goal-line market pricing error is high and accelerating (GL_5 1.55 vs GL_10 1.40) with the expected total above the opening line, while corners carry no quoted line and the level Asian handicap gives no clear edge (mutual-opponent goals NET -1.11 home vs -0.63 away). |
|
| 02-11-2026 19:45 |
England Isthmian Premier Division |
Aveley |
- |
St Albans |
Over 3.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected goals = (2.30+1.60)/2 + (2.10+2.00)/2 = 1.95 + 2.05 = 4.00, a full goal above the 3.0 line; shot-based match potential (52.2 total shots / 5.98 goals-to-shots ratio = 8.73) also clears the line and confirms the Over. Aveley's last 10 at home produced 3,3,3,2,4,7,6,4,5,6 goals — 6 of 10 over 3.0, 3 pushed, only 1 under — and St Albans' away games went 6,2,3,4,2,8,5 — 4 of 7 over 3.0 with one push, with 80% BTTS likelihood. Mutual-opponent data (7 games each) gives a mutual total of (2.71+1.86+1.43+1.29)/2 = 3.65 goals, above the 3.0 line, with Aveley leading the stat comparison 4-1, so the structural Over read is reinforced; bookmaker mispricing is only mild (home GL_5 0.45, away GL_5 1.05), so confidence is held at 82%-tier ceiling rather than elevated. |
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| 02-11-2026 20:00 |
Spain La Liga |
Deportivo A Coruna |
- |
Osasuna |
Over 2.25 Goals |
77% |
Expected total is 3.40 goals ((1.70+2.00)/2 + (1.60+1.50)/2) against a 2.25 line, and the shot-based cross-check (26.6 combined shots vs a 7.80 goals-to-shots ratio) puts match potential well above the line. Osasuna's away defence is structurally broken: they conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away La Liga games (2 at Sevilla, 5 at Betis, 4 at Atletico, 5 at Alaves) and 7 of their last 10 away matches went over 2.5, while the venue-matched mutual-opponent sample gives a combined 2.875 goals per game (Osasuna conceding 2.25 goals and 6.25 shots on target per away game vs shared opposition, vs Deportivo's 1.00 conceded at home). Deportivo's home games have been tighter (2 of 5 over 2.5, three 1-1s), which is why confidence is held at 77% rather than the 82% ceiling, but the bookmaker's home goal-line pricing error of 1.80 over the last 5 games (accelerating from 1.48 over 10) points the same direction as the Over, and the price shortened from 2.02 to 1.95 open. |
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| 02-11-2026 20:00 |
Northern Ireland Reserve League |
Coleraine Reserves |
- |
Ballymena Utd Reserves |
1st Half Over 1.75 Goals |
68% |
1H expected goals = (0.80 + 1.30)/2 + (1.30 + 1.00)/2 = 1.05 + 1.15 = 2.20 against a 1.75 line (gap +0.45); Ballymena Utd Reserves average 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded in first halves away with 80% of their away games producing 2+ 1H goals, while Coleraine Reserves' home 1H numbers are 0.80 scored / 1.00 conceded (50% over 1.5), and the likelihood model has 1H over 1.5 at 65% and over 0.5 at 90%. The full-time line offers far less: FT expected total = (1.60+2.40)/2 + (2.00+2.40)/2 = 4.20 vs a 4.00 line, only +0.20, with only 2 of 7 Coleraine and 2 of 8 Ballymena matches clearing 4.0 goals, so the 1H line is the stronger signal; H2H is a single meeting (Ballymena 0-3 Coleraine, Jan 2026, no HT split) so it is neutral. Bookmaker mispricing supports Over: Ballymena GL_5 2.15 vs GL_10 1.78 (accelerating, strong), Coleraine GL_5 1.10 (well calibrated). Confidence: base 50 + gap from 1H line +9 + home 1H history +0 (50%) + away 1H history +10 (80%) + H2H +0 + common opponents +0 (mutual_total 3.13 refers to FT, sample only g=4 for away) + structural +0 (no 60%+ first-30-min pattern) + market pricing error +4 (half adjustment, one team) - 5 (Ballymena failed to score in 1H in 4 of their last 5 away games) = 68%. |
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| 02-11-2026 20:15 |
Northern Ireland Reserve League |
Portadown Reserves |
- |
Dungannon Swifts Reserves |
Over 1.75 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
1st-half expected goals calculate to 2.30: (0.90+0.70)/2 + (1.70+1.30)/2, giving a +0.55 gap over the 1.75 line. Dungannon away 1st-half matches were 8/10 over 1.5 and Portadown 6/9 over 1.5, while the recent H2H was 6-0 to Dungannon (5-0 at half-time). Bookmaker mispricing is strong and accelerating with GL_5 of 2.00 and 1.95 against GL_10 of 1.65 for both sides, supporting the 1st-half Over despite capping confidence at the 82% standard ceiling. |
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| 02-11-2026 23:00 |
Uruguay Clausura |
Albion FC |
- |
Deportivo Maldonado |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time goals = (A+B)/2 + (C+D)/2 = (1.30 home scored + 0.80 Maldonado conceded away)/2 + (2.20 Maldonado scored away + 1.70 Albion conceded home)/2 = 1.05 + 1.95 = 3.00, a +0.50 gap over the 2.5 line, and the shot-based cross-check (38.4 total shots / 6.88 shots-per-goal ratio = 5.58 match potential) also clears the line. History backs it: Albion are Over 2.5 in 7/10 recent matches (last three home games produced 4, 5 and 3 goals) and Maldonado in 6/10, while H2H is 2/3 Over (4-1, 1-1, 1-2) and Maldonado have scored 2+ in four of their last five (4-0, 2-1, 2-3, 4-1). Structural Over support comes from Albion conceding 5.2 shots on target per home game (5.1 vs mutual opponents), with mutual-opponent goals volume of 2.59 clearing the line, and the bookmaker's pricing error is accelerating on both sides (home GL_5 1.75 vs GL_10 1.63; away 1.45 vs 1.05) with direction aligned to the Over. |
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