| 03-11-2026 21:30 |
Venezuela Primera Division |
Monagas |
- |
Caracas |
1st Half Over 1.0 Goals |
66% |
1st-half expected goals are (0.60+0.70)/2 + (1.10+0.70)/2 = 1.55 against a 1.0 line, a +0.55 gap that is much stronger than the full-time 2.85 vs 2.75 gap. Caracas score 69.2% of their goals in the first half, the latest H2H had a 2-1 first-half total (3 goals), and Caracas' recent 1H totals produced only one loss over this line. Confidence is 66% = base 50 + HT gap +11 + home market pricing error GL_5 1.65 vs GL_10 1.23 +5, with no history bonus. |
|
| 03-11-2026 22:00 |
Argentina Liga Profesional Reserves |
River Plate Reserves |
- |
CA Tigre Reserves |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total is 2.90 vs the 2.75 line ((1.80+1.90)/2 + (1.10+1.00)/2), and both teams had 6/10 recent matches reach 3+ goals. The away side conceded 2+ in 3 of its last 5 away games, including 5 at Union Santa Fe, while River are 2nd vs Tigre 16th in the group; H2H is only 2 matches and neutral (Tigre 0-2 River, River 4-0 Tigre) and mutual-opponent goals volume is 2.50, so the edge comes from the Over-first line gap plus away defensive fragility. GL_5 is 1.10 home / 0.95 away, so no large bookmaker mispricing boost was added. |
|
| 04-11-2026 11:00 |
Poland III Liga |
Kluczevia Stargard |
- |
Lech Poznan II |
Over 3.5 Goals |
67% |
Expected total is 3.80 — (1.80 home scored at home + 1.80 away conceded away)/2 + (2.50 away scored away + 1.50 home conceded at home)/2 — versus a 3.5 line, with Lech Poznan II's away games averaging 4.30 goals and Kluczevia's home games averaging 3.30; Lech's last five matches totalled 9, 6, 5, 5 and 0 goals (4 of 5 over 3.5). Bookmaker mispricing on the away side is severe and accelerating (GL_5 3.00 vs GL_10 2.40), with four over-direction misses on recent opening lines (+6.0, +2.5, +1.5, +1.75), while the contradictory signals are only the mutual-opponent goal volume (3.05, marginally below the line) and a single 1-0 H2H that is too small a sample to veto. The 1st-half line of 1.5 yields an expected 1.65 (a thinner +0.15 gap) and a split history (away 3 of 4 over HT 1.5, home just 2 of 6), so full-time Over 3.5 is the stronger value at 1.95. |
|
| 04-11-2026 11:30 |
Thailand League Cup |
Bangkok FC |
- |
Chainat FC |
Asian Handicap +0.75 Bangkok FC |
68% |
Bangkok FC +0.75 has the stronger value: they covered this margin in 6 of their last 8 overall, including 3-0, 0-0, 0-4 and 7-6 wins, while Chainat’s recent away record as a -0.75 favourite is poor with losses at Kanchanaburi 6-3, Khonkaen 2-1 and Muang Loei 3-0. The mutual-opponent comparison also leans weakly to Bangkok: 3W-2D-5L vs Chainat’s 1W-3D-5L, with Bangkok better on shots NET (+2.0 vs -0.89) and dangerous attacks NET (+9.9 vs +4.67), giving 2 of 3 AH signals support at 1.80. |
|
| 04-11-2026 12:00 |
Lithuania 1 Lyga |
FK Tauras |
- |
FK Minija |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
72% |
1st-half expected total = (Tauras home HT scored 0.60 + Minija away HT conceded 0.30)/2 + (Minija away HT scored 0.80 + Tauras home HT conceded 0.60)/2 = 0.45 + 0.70 = 1.15, below the 1.25 line. Both sides are very low first-half producers: Tauras went Over 1.25 HT in only 3/10 matches (0.60 scored, 0.60 conceded at home) and Minija in just 2/10 away/all (0.80 scored, 0.30 conceded in 1st halves), so Under 1.25 hit 70-80% of the time. The two structural Under reasons stack: both teams are quiet before the break AND goals cluster late (Minija scores 31% at 75' and 24% at 90'; Tauras concedes 28% at 75' and 39% at 90'), meaning first halves stay tight before second-half scoring erupts. The lone H2H (Minija 2-1, total 3) is neutral (1 match) and triggers no veto. |
|
| 04-11-2026 12:30 |
AFC Champions League Women |
Ayeyawady FC Women |
- |
INAC Leonessa Women |
1st Half Under 2.0/2.5 Goals |
76% |
1st-half expected total of 1.40 ((1.30+0.70)/2 + (0.50+0.30)/2) sits 0.85 goals below the 2.25 line: Ayeyawady average 1.30 scored / 0.30 conceded in first halves at home, while INAC average just 0.50 scored / 0.70 conceded in first halves away. Home stayed under 2.25 HT goals in 8 of their last 10 and INAC in 9 of 10 (last three away HT totals 2, 0, 1), with no H2H to override. Full-time also leans under (expected 3.75 vs line 5.0) but is rejected because INAC's strict under-5.0 rate is only 6/10 and Ayeyawady's 0-7 collapse is a live blowout tail; Ayeyawady's bookmaker mispricing is severe (GL_5 3.00 vs GL_10 2.08, accelerating) with the expected total below the 4.75 opening line, which per the direction rule favours the under. Score breakdown: base 50 + gap from line +15 + home HT history (80%) +10 + away HT history (90%) +10 + H2H +0 + market pricing error (home, severe/aligned) +12 + pricing error (away, ambiguous) +0 = 97% raw, capped at the 82% standard tier, then reduced to 76% for cross-league sample contamination (Myanmar League home data vs J-League away data). |
|
| 04-11-2026 13:05 |
Oman League |
Al-Nasr Salalah |
- |
Sur SC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected total is 3.15 goals: (1.30 home scored at home + 2.20 Sur conceded away)/2 + (1.60 Sur scored away + 1.20 Al-Nasr conceded at home)/2, well above the 2.5 line. Sur have gone Over 2.5 in 8/10 and conceded 2+ in three of their last five away games, while Al-Nasr sit 3rd vs Sur 14th; the lone H2H (1-0) is too small to override. Bookmaker goal-line mispricing supports Over with GL_5 1.60 for Al-Nasr and 1.65 for Sur. |
|
| 04-11-2026 15:00 |
Portugal U23 League |
UD Leiria U23 |
- |
Estoril U23 |
Asian Handicap 0 (Draw No Bet) — Estoril U23 |
67% |
Estoril sit 3rd (20pts, unbeaten) vs Leiria 13th (11pts), and Estoril's Asian Handicap record is 8W-2V-0L in the last 10 versus Leiria's 4W-1V-5L. Leiria's home form is dire — 0W-1D-9L in their recent home sample, scoring only ~0.8 and conceding ~2.0 per home game, while Estoril are unbeaten on the road (1W-4D in last 5 away, incl. a 3-2 win at Leiria), so a level-handicap (draw = push) Estoril win is the cleanest edge. The Over 2.75 goal line was rejected despite a 2.90 expected total (A1: (0.90+1.50)/2 + (2.10+1.30)/2): Leiria failed to score in 3 of their last 5 (scoring drought, −3% structural), home-over-2.5 is only ~30% and Estoril's away-over-2.5 is just 40% (totals 4,5,2,2,2), and home market pricing error is low (GL_5 0.80), dropping the Over below the 65% threshold. Corners had no available line. |
|
| 04-11-2026 15:00 |
Jordan Cup Women |
Al Naser Women |
- |
Etihad Club Women |
Over 2.5 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time total = (3.50+0.70)/2 + (4.10+1.20)/2 = 4.75 goals, well clear of a 2.5 line. Etihad Club Women away are 4.10 scored / 0.70 conceded per game and have gone Over 2.5 in all three true away fixtures this season (3-2, 3-2, 3-0 at Al-Nassr) and 6/6 away wins averaging 4.83 goals, while Al Naser Women's home games produced 2/4 Over 2.5 including 3-5 and 2-2. Mutual-opponent data gives a combined 5.50 goals per game (Etihad 5.33 scored, 1.33 conceded in 3 shared-fixture games), and the home side's recent match totals sit 2.55 goals away from the opening line (GL_5, severe mispricing, over-leaning). The only caution is H2H (2-0 and 1-0, both at Etihad's ground) which is a 2-match sample and therefore treated as neutral, not a veto; a shot-based cross-check also clears the line comfortably. 1st-half line (expected 2.30) offered less history agreement (Al Naser 2/5 Over 1.5 HT), so full-time is the stronger signal. Confidence: base 50% + gap from line +15% + away history +5% + common opponents +5% + likelihood +3% + bookmaker mispricing +8% (home GL_5 2.55, partially offset by stabilising 3.95 GL_10) + structural (dominant away attack, 4+ goals in every Etihad away win) +3%, home history 50% +0%, H2H neutral +0% → capped at 76%. |
|
| 04-11-2026 16:00 |
AFC Champions League Two |
Al-Rayyan SC |
- |
Al-Nahda |
Over 3.0 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 3.10 clears the 3.0 line: (A) Al-Rayyan 2.40 scored at home + (B) Al-Nahda 1.30 conceded away = 1.85, plus (C) Al-Nahda 1.50 scored away + (D) Al-Rayyan 1.00 conceded at home = 1.25; shot-based match potential agrees strongly ((12.5+10.5)x2 = 46.0 shots / 6.87 shots-per-goal = 6.69 vs 3.0 line). Al-Rayyan have scored 2+ in 8 of their last 10 home games (4-3, 3-0, 1-1, 3-3, 4-0, 2-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-0, 1-2, 3.40 total per home game) while Al-Nahda conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away (Al-Faisaly 2, Al Shabab Seeb 2, Bahla 2), and H2H is 4-1 (28 Oct) and 3-1 (17 Feb) — 9 goals in two meetings, both over 3.0. Bookmaker mispricing is severe and accelerating on Al-Rayyan (GL_5 2.55 vs GL_10 1.98; Al-Nahda 1.60 vs 1.50), and exactly 3 goals landed in 4 of Al-Rayyan's last 10 home games giving a large push cushion at this line; the 1st-half alternative (expected 1.40 vs 1.25 line) is weaker because Al-Nahda's away 1st-half totals cleared 1.25 in only 3 of 10. Confidence: base 50% + gap from line +2% + home history 3/10 over 3.0 +0% + away history 3/10 +0% + H2H 2 matches (neutral, rule) +0% + common opponents neutral (g=1 both) +0% + likelihood (over 2.5 = 50%) +0% + GL_5 home +6% (severe, half-weighted for marginal 0.10 directional gap) + GL_5 away +5% + away defensive fragility +3% + home scoring form +3% = 69%, reported 68%. |
|
| 04-11-2026 17:00 |
Czechia First League |
SK Artis Brno |
- |
Bohemians 1905 |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals are 2.55 (Artis Brno score 1.70/concede 1.00 at home; Bohemians score 1.40/concede 1.00 away), and the mutual-opponent total is 3.6, supporting the 2.5/3.0 Asian goal line. Artis Brno went over 2.75 in 7/10 home matches, Bohemians went over 2.75 in 5/10 away matches, and Bohemians conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games; market pricing error is also strongly accelerating (GL_5 2.05 home and 2.00 away vs GL_10 1.20/1.58). The 1st-half Over 1.0 is weaker because Bohemians went over 1.0 at HT in only 3/10 matches. |
|
| 04-11-2026 17:00 |
Gulf Club Championships |
Erbil SC |
- |
Kazma SC |
Over 1.0 First Half Goals |
72% |
1st-half expected total = (0.90+0.60)/2 + (0.70+0.50)/2 = 1.35, a +0.35 gap over the 1.0 line, and the settled history is push-heavy in exactly the right way: Kazma's last 10 first halves went 2+ goals 4 times, exactly 1 five times and 0 only once (80% of settled halves cleared the line), while Erbil's split 4 over / 3 push / 3 under. Erbil score 60% of their home goals before the break (0.90 of 1.50) and concede only 0.50 in first halves at home, and the likelihood model prices a goalless first half at just 20% (80% Over 0.5 HT, 40% Over 1.5 HT) against a 2.10 quote implying only 47.6%. Erbil's market pricing error is elevated and accelerating in the Over direction (GL_5 1.80 vs GL_10 1.35), so a half adjustment of +2.5% applies; H2H is empty and mutual opponents are null, so both are neutral. Full-time Over 2.5 was rejected (Erbil's home-venue games are only 2/10 Over 2.5, expected 2.70 vs a 2.5 line at 1.975 is a coin flip) and corners have no posted line. Confidence: base 50% + gap +7% + home HT history +0% (4/7 settled = 57%) + away HT history +8% (4/5 settled = 80%) + H2H +0% + early-scoring structural +5% + GL_5 home +2.5% + GL_5 away +0% (0.95, well-calibrated) = 72.5% -> 72%. |
|
| 04-11-2026 17:00 |
Argentina Nacional Reserve League |
All Boys Reserves |
- |
Acassuso Reserves |
Under 2.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected goals calculate to 1.85 against a 2.0 line, with All Boys failing to score in 3 of their last 5 home games and Acassuso failing in 4 of 5 away. Under 2.0 was decisive in 5/7 All Boys matches and 7/9 Acassuso matches, the lone H2H was 0-1, and Acassuso concede only 0.60 away goals per game; Acassuso's GL_5 of 1.55 adds moderate bookmaker mispricing in the Under direction. The main counterweight is the 2.36 mutual-opponent goals total, but direct venue form, low scoring, and H2H support the Under. |
|
| 04-11-2026 18:00 |
Argentina Liga Profesional Reserves |
San Martin de San Juan Reserves |
- |
Central Cordoba SdE Reserves |
Over 1.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 2.90: (0.90+2.10)/2 + (1.00+1.80)/2. Home matches have gone Over 1.5 in 7/10 and away matches in 8/10, with the away side conceding 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games. Mutual-opponent data also shows 6.0 shots on target conceded by the away side, a structural Over signal; mutual_total is 2.5, which supports Over 1.5. H2H is empty, so no veto. Bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 1.40 home, 1.15 away), so confidence is capped at 82% despite a raw score of 96%. |
|
| 04-11-2026 19:00 |
Belgium First Division B |
Anderlecht II |
- |
Lierse Kempenzonen |
Over 4.5 Corners (1st Half) |
70% |
1st-half corner expectancy from the venue splits is 5.25 — (3.20+3.60)/2 + (2.10+1.60)/2 — comfortably clearing the 4.5 line by 0.75 corners; Lierse's away matches have produced over 4.5 first-half corners in 6 of 7 (86%, totals 5/6/5/6/9/5) and 8 of 10 overall, while Anderlecht II's home games sit at 2 of 4 (5/8 overall), clearing the required 60%/50% agreement on both sides. The over is available at 1.975 with the under favoured at 1.825, which is a clear mispricing given Lierse concede 3.60 first-half corners on the road and Anderlecht II generate 3.20 at home, and the mutual-opponents shot volume (13.7 for / 16.22 against across the two sides) confirms sustained early pressure. Full-time goal line was rejected in favour of this market: the 3.10 expected total sits only 0.10 above a 3.0 line with just 40-43% over-3.0 history, whereas the first-half corner line shows a materially larger gap and cleaner historical alignment. |
|
| 04-11-2026 19:00 |
Spain Copa del Rey |
Amorebieta |
- |
UD Logrones |
UD Logrones -0.75 Asian Handicap |
72% |
UD Logrones' away form is decisive: 4W-0D-1L with 14 goals scored and 8 conceded, while Amorebieta's home record is only 1W-1D-2L with 5 scored and 6 conceded. Logrones also lead 4 of 5 venue-matched mutual-opponent stat categories, have the better goals NET (+0.5 vs +0.2), and covered -0.75 in 4 of their last 5 away matches. The single H2H (Logrones 4-1) is treated as neutral due to sample size, but the standings gap and recent margin profile support the away handicap at 2.00. |
|
| 04-11-2026 19:00 |
Belgium First Division B |
Anderlecht II |
- |
Lierse Kempenzonen |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
1st-half expected total = (0.80+0.50)/2 + (0.40+0.80)/2 = 1.25, sitting on the HT line, but the distribution is heavily skewed low: Lierse have gone into half-time scoreless in all 5 away league games (HT 0-0, 0-2, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0) and Anderlecht II were level 0-0 at the break in 3 of 4 home games (HT totals 0,3,1,1), giving 1st-half Under 1.25 hits of 4/5 (80%) for Lierse away and 3/4 (75%) for Anderlecht II at home — both above the 70% bar. The likelihood model confirms this (only 30% of matches clear 1.5 first-half goals), and H2H is only 2 games so it neither confirms nor vetoes. Full-time Over 3.0 was rejected (home 4/10 and away 2/10 over that line), and no corners line is posted, leaving the low-scoring first-half profile as the clear edge at 1.925. |
|
| 04-11-2026 19:00 |
Spain Copa del Rey |
Amorebieta |
- |
UD Logrones |
Over 2.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected total = (A+B)/2 + (C+D)/2 = (1.30+1.30)/2 + (2.00+1.00)/2 = 2.80 goals against the 2.5 line (gap +0.30): Amorebieta average 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded at home, UD Logrones average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded away. UD Logrones' last five away matches ALL went over 2.5 (totals 4, 4, 8, 3, 3 — averaging 4.4 goals), Amorebieta's home games are 3 of 5 over 2.5 (totals 1, 3, 3, 1, 4), the sole H2H finished 4-1 (5 goals), and the 2.5 line clears in 60% of the overall likelihood sample (70% for Logrones). Bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 home 1.05, away 1.15 — away trend stabilising vs GL_10 1.38), and the venue-matched common-opponent sample is slightly cooler at 2.25 total, so this is a modest 72% edge rather than a high-conviction one; no corners market is priced (Asian Corners blank), and the AH line (away -0.5 at 1.925 against Logrones' 1-win-in-5 AH form) does not qualify. |
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