| 01-11-2026 12:30 |
Germany 3. Liga |
Saarbrucken |
- |
Waldhof Mannheim |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals are 3.45: Saarbrucken average 2.20 scored and 1.90 conceded at home, while Waldhof average 1.50 scored and 1.30 conceded away, so (2.20+1.30)/2 + (1.50+1.90)/2 = 3.45, above the 3.0 line. Saarbrucken's home venue totals include two 6-goal games and two 3-goal pushes from five, Waldhof's away totals are 2/4 over 3.0, and mutual opponents average 3.5 total goals; H2H is only two matches (2-0, 2-1) so neutral. Waldhof have conceded 2+ in three of their last five away matches, Saarbrucken have scored 2+ in their last three home games, and home market pricing error is elevated (GL_5 1.80, GL_10 2.10) in the Over direction. |
|
| 01-11-2026 13:00 |
Lithuania 1 Lyga |
FK Transinvest II |
- |
FK Garliava |
Over 2.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected total is 3.15 goals ((1.90+1.60)/2 + (0.90+1.90)/2), clearing the 2.5 line by 0.65; Transinvest II's home games went over 2.5 in 6 of 10 (their last five averaged 3.4 goals: 3-2 vs Siauliai II, 4-1 vs Hegelmann II, 1-1 vs Ekranas, 2-0 vs Atmosfera) and Garliava's away defence conceded 2+ in four of their last five away matches (3 at Siauliai II, 3 at Kauno Zalgiris II, 2 at BE1, 3 at Hegelmann II), with an away concession rate of 1.60 per game against Transinvest's 1.90 scored at home. Garliava's goal-line market pricing error of 1.75 (GL_5, accelerating from 1.70 over 10 games) points the same direction, and the lone H2H (Garliava 3-0, June) is a one-match sample that also cleared 2.5, so it neither vetoes nor confirms; the mutual-opponent goal volume of 2.6 is marginally at the line and treated as neutral. |
|
| 01-11-2026 13:00 |
Czechia 2. Liga |
SK Kladno |
- |
Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz |
Over 2.75 Goals (Over 2.5, 3.0) |
80% |
Expected total = (1.60 home scored + 2.00 away conceded)/2 + (1.40 away scored + 1.70 home conceded)/2 = 1.80 + 1.55 = 3.35 goals, a 0.60-goal gap above the 2.5/3.0 line. Shot-based match potential of 50.2 total shots / 6.99 goals-per-shot ratio = 7.18 also clears the line, and Kromeriz have seen 8 of 10 matches go over 2.75 (6 of 10 for Kladno), including 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10. Kromeriz's away defence is the structural driver: they concede 2.00 goals and 5.1 shots on target per away game and have shipped 2+ in 3 of their last 5 on the road (3 at Karvina, 4 at Slavia B, 2 at Dukla). Bookmaker mispricing is mild-to-moderate and accelerating on the away side (last-5 error 1.45 vs last-10 1.20) with the expected total on the Over side of the opening line; mutual-opponent sample (2.62 goals) is essentially line-neutral and H2H is empty, so the edge rests on the away defensive fragility plus the 80%/60% over record. HT Over 1.25 was rejected: expected HT total only 1.35 against history of 3/10 and 4/10. Corners skipped — no Asian Corners line is posted. |
|
| 01-11-2026 13:00 |
Andorra Premier Division |
CE Carroi |
- |
CE Casa de Portugal |
Over 3.0 Goals |
70% |
Expected total = (0.70+1.88)/2 + (2.38+2.60)/2 = 3.78 vs the 3.0 line; match likelihood puts 76% of games at 3+ goals and 34% at 4+, so Over 3.0 wins ~34% with a large 42% push cushion (net settled win rate ~58%). Casa de Portugal's away defence is fragile (conceded 5 at Santa Coloma, 3 at Ordino, 3.0/game across recent away games) and Carroi concede 2.60 at home, supporting goals, though Carroi's scoring drought (0.70 at home, blank in 4 of last 6) is the key risk that caps confidence at 70. Bookmaker mispricing is only mild (home GL_5 1.25 vs GL_10 1.03, away GL_5 1.00) so no extra confidence; no H2H data available to veto. |
|
| 01-11-2026 13:00 |
Denmark Superligaen |
Viborg |
- |
AC Horsens |
Over 3.0 Goals |
73% |
Venue-split expected total = (1.80 home scored + 1.70 away conceded)/2 + (2.10 away scored + 1.50 home conceded)/2 = 1.75 + 1.80 = 3.55, a +0.55 gap over the 3.0 line. AC Horsens matches are consistently high-scoring: 6 of their last 10 went over 3.0 (5-1, 3-3, 5-2, 3-2, 2-2, 2-3) and they have conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games, confirming away defensive fragility. The bookmaker's line looks underpriced for Horsens games — market pricing error GL_5 2.50 (accelerating from GL_10 2.28) points in the Over direction, while Viborg's GL_5 0.85 is well-calibrated. Confidence is capped near 73% because Viborg's home games only cleared 3.0 four times in ten (three pushes, three unders) and the mutual-opponent total of (1.5+1.0+1.57+1.43)/2 = 2.75 sits just under the line. |
|
| 01-11-2026 13:00 |
Switzerland Super League |
Young Boys |
- |
FC Zurich |
Over 4.0 Goals |
66% |
Expected total = (3.00 home scored + 1.80 away conceded)/2 + (2.00 away scored + 1.50 home conceded)/2 = 4.15, clearing the 4.0 line by 0.15, and the shot-based match potential of (17.0+13.8)/((5.67+6.90+7.07+8.28)/4) ≈ 4.4 also clears it. Young Boys' last 5 home games produced 2, 5, 6, 6, 6 goals (4 of 5 over 4.0, scoring 2+ in every one), while FC Zurich conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 4 away games and their two H2Hs with Young Boys finished 2-4 (6 goals) and 0-3. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate and aligned with the Over (home GL_5 1.50 vs GL_10 1.75, away GL_5 1.35), and the away side's away games were a win at 5 goals and a push at 4 from just 4 sampled fixtures, so they do not actively veto the line. |
|
| 01-11-2026 13:00 |
Uruguay Clausura |
Club Atletico Progreso |
- |
Defensor Sporting |
Over 8.5 Asian Corners |
68% |
Expected corners = (home 4.00 + away conc 4.10)/2 + (away 3.70 + home conc 5.90)/2 = 4.05 + 4.80 = 8.85, above the 8.5 line, and Progreso's actual home games have averaged 11.25 corners (14, 11, 14, 6). Home matches went over 8.5 corners in 6/10 (60%) and Defensor's away games in 5/10 (50%, including 3 of their last 5), with the lone H2H producing 12 corners. The quality gap (Progreso 6th in Clausura on 19 pts vs Defensor 15th on 9 pts, -9 GD, conceding 3 goals in 3 of their last 4) points to sustained home pressure and corner accumulation, and the over price shortened from 1.82 to 1.775, confirming market support; the full-time goal line is weaker (expected 2.70 vs 2.25 line but only 50%/40% over 2.5 and a mutual-opponent lean of just 2.05 goals), so the corner Over is the cleanest qualifying edge. |
|
| 01-11-2026 14:00 |
Czechia 2. Liga |
SK Prostejov |
- |
Opava |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total from venue splits is 3.50 — Prostejov scores 1.40 and concedes 2.00 at home, Opava scores 1.60 and concedes 2.00 away: (1.40+2.00)/2 + (1.60+2.00)/2 = 3.50, a +0.75 gap over the 2.5/3.0 line. Both teams are 8/10 (80%) Over 2.5 in their last 10, mutual-opponent goals volume is 3.07 (clears the line), the shot-based potential (~6.0) agrees, and the likelihood model also shows 80% Over 2.5. H2H is only 2 matches (neutral, 1 over/1 under) and bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.30 home / 1.15 away), so the edge comes from the strong dual history and expected-goals gap; raw score 93% capped at the 82% standard ceiling since the 3-match H2H requirement for an elevated tier is not met. |
|
| 01-11-2026 14:00 |
France Ligue 1 |
Strasbourg |
- |
Auxerre |
Over 3.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected total = (Strasbourg home scored 1.50 + Auxerre away conceded 2.10)/2 + (Auxerre away scored 1.70 + Strasbourg home conceded 2.40)/2 = 1.80 + 2.05 = 3.85 vs the 3.0 line (gap +0.85); the 1st-half line is far weaker (HT expected 1.30 vs 1.25, only +0.05, with Strasbourg 40% and Auxerre 30% over 1.25 HT), so full-time is the play. Match-potential cross-check (52.2 shot volume / 7.53 goals-to-shots ratio = ~6.9, or 3.47 on combined shots alone) also clears the line, mutual-opponent goals volume is 3.51 vs the 3.0 line with Strasbourg holding a 5-0 stat advantage, and Auxerre's away defence has conceded 2+ in 3 of the last 5 away games (Rennes 4-1, Lyon 3-1, Lens 5-2) while conceding 6.14 shots on target per game against shared opposition. History: Auxerre 6/10 and 7/10 over 2.5 (60% even at a 3.0 line), Strasbourg 8/10 over 2.5 (80%, 4 pushes at exactly 3.0), likelihood 75% Over 2.5 / 50% Over 3.5; Auxerre's GL_5 is 1.85 (GL_10 1.98) — strong bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction, applied at half weight since only one side is mispriced. Scoring: base 50 + gap +15 + home history +0 + away history +5 + H2H +0 (1 match) + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + GL_5 home +0 (0.45, well calibrated) + GL_5 away +4 + structural away fragility +5 = 87% raw, trimmed for stacking discipline and Strasbourg's 40% strict push-heavy record at 3.0 to 80%. Corners skipped: expected 9.40 falls short of the 9.5 line and Strasbourg is only 2/10 over 9.5; Asian Handicap skipped: only mutual-opponents of the three required signals supports Strasbourg -0.5 (AH record 1W-4L last 5, standings below Auxerre). |
|
| 01-11-2026 14:00 |
England Super League Women |
Birmingham Women |
- |
Tottenham Women |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is (1.70+1.70)/2 + (2.60+1.70)/2 = 3.85 vs the 3.0 line (+0.85), with Birmingham home 3/4 (75%) and Tottenham away 3/5 (60%) over 3.0; H2H is empty, so neutral. Mutual-opponent total is 4.33 and also clears the line; Tottenham away GL_5 2.90 vs GL_10 2.48 is severe accelerating bookmaker mispricing that aligns with the Over, while home GL_5 1.45 is neutral. Confidence: base 50 + gap +15 + home history +8 + away history +5 + H2H +0 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + GL_5 home +0 + GL_5 away +12 + structural +0 = 98 raw, capped at the 82 standard tier. |
|
| 01-11-2026 14:00 |
England Super League Women |
Brighton Women |
- |
Crystal Palace Women |
Over 9.5 Corners |
65% |
Expected corners = (6.20+6.30)/2 + (4.30+3.50)/2 = 10.15, clearing the 9.5 line by 0.65; Brighton average 6.20 home corners while Palace concede 6.30 corners away, and Palace concede 16.0 shots away, a strong pressure signal. Corner history is 5/10 over 9.5 for both teams, so it is neutral rather than contradicting, and with no H2H the structural Over case and positive line gap justify the pick. |
|
| 01-11-2026 14:00 |
Italy Serie A Women |
Roma Women |
- |
Napoli Women |
Over 3.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total = (2.70+2.00)/2 + (1.20+1.70)/2 = 3.80, i.e. 0.30 goals above the 3.5 line (Roma score 2.70 and concede 1.70 at home; Napoli score just 1.20 and concede 2.00 on the road). Roma have gone Over 3.5 in 7 of their last 10 (7,6,4,6,4,4,8 goals) and Napoli in 5 of 10, with Napoli's away defence structurally fragile — they conceded 3 at Juventus, 6 at Inter and 4 at Lazio (3 of their last 5 away games with 2+ conceded), and the mutual-opponent sample shows Napoli conceding 6.0 shots on target per game against shared opposition. The shot-based match potential (50.0 total shots / 6.98 goals-to-shots ratio = 7.16) also clears the line, and the home goal-line market pricing error is high and accelerating (GL_5 2.20 vs GL_10 2.13), pointing the same direction as the Over call; the 1st-half line (expected 1.75 vs 1.5, home only 40% Over 1.5 HT) is the weaker of the two. |
|
| 01-11-2026 14:00 |
India Super League |
Inter Kashi FC |
- |
FC Goa |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
74% |
1st-half expected total is only 0.85 goals vs the 1.0 line: Inter Kashi average 0.30 first-half goals at home (a goal every 14.3 shots) and concede 0.70, while FC Goa score 0.60 in first halves away but concede just 0.10 (one goal per 38 shots) — a combined profile of almost no early scoring. History confirms it: 10 of the 12 relevant recent matches produced one or fewer first-half goals, FC Goa were goalless at the break in 5 of their last 8 (HT totals 0,2,1,1,0,0,0,0) and the single H2H (1-1) is neutral with no veto. Full-time is far less clean — expected 2.45 vs a 2.0/2.5 split line with only 50% (home) and 67% (away) of matches reaching three goals and no meaningful bookmaker mispricing (GL_5: home 1.20, away 0.35) — so the half-time line is the only market with a real edge. |
|
| 01-11-2026 14:30 |
Kuwait League |
Al Jahra |
- |
Al Fahaheel SC |
1st Half Under 1.25 Goals |
78% |
1st-half expected goals come out at just 0.85 — (Al Jahra FH scored 0.00 + Al Fahaheel FH conceded 0.50)/2 + (Al Fahaheel FH scored 0.50 + Al Jahra FH conceded 0.70)/2 — fully 0.40 below the 1.25 line. The structural signal is decisive: Al Jahra have scored ZERO first-half goals in their last 10 matches and their scoring-minutes profile shows every goal coming after the 60th minute, while Al Fahaheel registered at most one first-half goal in each of their last 10 and have been shut out at the break in 4 of their last 5 away games. First-half totals stayed under 1.5 in 10/10 Al Jahra matches and 7/10 Al Fahaheel matches, so both clear the 70% Under history bar; an Under is justified only because the drought is genuine (0 FH goals in 10) rather than a marginal average miss, and the 1.0/1.5 split line at 1.725 gives value on the half-win. Full-time Over 2.75 does not qualify (expected 2.40, history only 50%/60%, likelihood 45% at 2.5), and no corner market is priced. |
|
| 01-11-2026 15:00 |
Cyprus Division 1 |
Omonia 29is Maiou |
- |
Nea Salamis Famagusta |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total = (1.70 home scored + 1.80 away conceded)/2 + (2.50 away scored + 1.90 home conceded)/2 = 1.75 + 2.20 = 3.95 goals, clearing the 2.5 line by 1.45 — and the shot-based check agrees: 37.8 combined shots / 5.895 goals-to-shots ratio gives a match potential of 6.4, well above the line. Nea Salamis has conceded 2+ in all four of their Division 1 away games (4-2 at Apollon, 2-1 at Apoel, 2-1 at AEL, 3-3 at Olympiakos — 4.5 goals/game), 9 of their last 10 matches went Over 2.5 versus 7 of 9 for Omonia 29, and their unadjusted away defensive average of 1.80 conceded plus 5.8 shots-on-target conceded marks clear defensive fragility. H2H gives two Over-2.5 results in three (1-1, 2-2, 2-1), the venue-matched mutual-opponent total of 3.12 goals also clears the line, and both teams carry moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.60 each, home trend accelerating against a 1.50 GL_10 baseline) pointing in the same direction as the Over. |
|
| 01-11-2026 15:00 |
Sweden 1.div Södra |
Ariana FC Malmo |
- |
FC Trollhattan |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
First-half expected total is 2.00 goals ((0.60+0.90)/2 + (1.40+1.10)/2 = 0.75+1.25) versus the 1.25 line — a +0.75 gap, much larger than the full-time +0.45 gap (3.70 vs 3.25). FC Trollhattan averages 1.40 first-half goals away while Ariana concedes 1.10 in the first half at home, and 7 of Ariana's last 10 and 6 of Trollhattan's last 10 matches cleared 1.5 first-half goals, with both sides scoring in the first half in 70% of games. The bookmaker mispricing is strong for the away side (GL_5 2.25, accelerating above GL_10 2.18), which aligns with the Over. |
|
| 01-11-2026 15:00 |
Hungary NB I |
Ferencvarosi TC |
- |
Paksi |
1st Half Over 1.5 Goals |
67% |
1st-half expected goals = (1.30+0.80)/2 + (0.70+0.60)/2 = 1.70, above the 1.5 line, with Ferencvaros 6/10 and Paksi 5/10 over 1.5 first-half goals in recent matches. Ferencvaros have scored 10 of their 12 first-half goals before the 30th minute and both sides scored in the first half in 60% of recent games, while the 55% HT over-1.5 likelihood at 1.90 provides marginal value; goal-line bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 1.20 home / 0.95 away). |
|
| 01-11-2026 15:00 |
Bahrain Premier League |
Al-Muharraq |
- |
Sitra |
1st Half Under 1.25 Goals |
75% |
Expected first-half goals are only 1.00: (0.90+0.40)/2 + (0.50+0.20)/2, versus the 1.25 line. Al-Muharraq concedes just 0.20 first-half goals per home game and only 1 first-half goal in their last 5 home matches, while Sitra failed to score in the first half in 4 of their last 5 overall (2 of 3 away). Historical HT totals support Under 1.25 (Al-Muharraq home 3/5 positive for under; Sitra away 2/3), and moderate bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 home 1.50, away 1.45, both accelerating vs GL_10) points the same direction; H2H has only two matches and no HT scores, so it is neutral. |
|
| 01-11-2026 15:30 |
Germany 3. Liga |
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach |
- |
Rot-Weiss Essen |
Over 3.0 Goals |
75% |
Expected total clears the line: home scores 1.50 and concedes 2.60 at home, Essen scores 1.70 and concedes 1.00 away, so (1.50+1.00)/2 + (1.70+2.60)/2 = 1.25 + 2.15 = 3.40 vs the 3.0 line — a +0.40 gap. Grossaspach's five home matches finished 2-4, 3-2, 1-5, 1-1 and 1-0 (4.0 goals/game, 3 of 5 over 3.0), the venue-matched mutual-opponent sample combines for 3.45 goals per game, and the bookmaker's opening line is severely mispriced on the home side (GL_5 2.75 vs GL_10 1.95 — accelerating) with Essen also in strong-mispricing territory (GL_5 1.85), plus a quality gap of 3rd vs 17th that points to sustained away pressure. Essen's own away games (0-0, 1-2, 3-3, 0-1 — only 1 of 4 over 3.0) and the resulting push exposure at exactly three goals hold the score below the mechanical 82% ceiling. |
|
| 01-11-2026 15:30 |
Burkina Faso League |
Sonabel |
- |
ASF Bolo Dioulasso |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) — 1st Half Over 0.5,1.0 |
72% |
1st-half expected total of 1.00 ((home 0.70 scored + away 0.60 conceded)/2 = 0.65, plus (away 0.30 scored + home 0.40 conceded)/2 = 0.35) clears the 0.75 quarter line by 0.25, whereas full-time is far weaker: FT expected 2.45 is belied by both teams' poor Over 2.0 history (Sonabel 3/8 = 37.5%, ASF Bolo 2/7 = 28.6%) and a mutual-opponent total of only 1.89, so the shorter HT line is clearly the value. Sonabel produced a first-half goal in 7 of 8 recent matches (87.5%) and ASF Bolo in 5 of 7 (71.4%), with the lone H2H (Sonabel 2-0) also 2-0 at half-time, giving roughly 70-80% chance of at least one HT goal and only a half-loss exposure on exactly one. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.35 home / 1.25 away, both below the 1.5 threshold) so no extra edge is added, capping confidence at ~72%. |
|
| 01-11-2026 15:45 |
Netherlands Eredivisie |
FC Groningen |
- |
Sparta Rotterdam |
Over 3.25 Goals (Full-Time) |
82% |
Expected goals formula: (Groningen home scored 2.20 + Sparta away conceded 2.50)/2 + (Sparta away scored 1.90 + Groningen home conceded 2.20)/2 = 2.35 + 2.05 = 4.40, a +1.15 gap over the 3.25 line; the shot-based cross-check also clears it (61.2 combined shots / 6.755 goals-to-shots ratio = 9.06 match potential). Match history is strongly Over: 7 of 10 Groningen matches and 8 of 10 Sparta matches produced 4+ goals at this line (70%/80%), and Sparta have conceded 2+ in each of their last 5 away games (5, 2, 2, 3, 4) while Groningen have scored 2+ in 4 of their last 5 home league games. Mutual-opponent totals (1.8/1.9 for Groningen vs 1.0/2.2 for Sparta) give a mutual total of 3.45, still clearing the line, and home market pricing error is 1.75 on the last 5 (accelerating vs 1.73 on 10) in the Over direction, supporting the pick; the single H2H (Sparta 2-0, Jan 2026) is too small a sample to override. |
|
| 01-11-2026 16:00 |
Austria Bundesliga |
FK Austria Vienna |
- |
Rapid Vienna |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
1st-half expected total is 1.90: (1.10 home HT scored + 0.50 away HT conceded)/2 + (1.40 away HT scored + 0.80 home HT conceded)/2, giving a +0.65 gap over the 1.25 line. Both teams cleared 1.5 first-half goals in 6/10 recent matches, and Rapid’s 1st-vs-11th quality gap supports early pressure; the home side’s bookmaker mispricing signal (GL_5 2.15) also aligns with Over. Full-time Over 3.0 is vetoed by all three H2H meetings finishing 2-0/1-1/2-0, so the 1st-half line is the stronger play. |
|
| 01-11-2026 16:00 |
Norway Eliteserien |
IK Start |
- |
Lillestrom |
Over 4.5 1st Half Corners |
81% |
1st-half corners project to 6.05 — (home HT avg 3.10 + away HT conceded 3.00)/2 + (away HT avg 3.00 + home HT conceded 3.00)/2 = 3.05 + 3.00 — comfortably above the 4.5 line (+1.55 gap). IK Start's last 6 home halves produced 7,6,9,5,8,6 corners (6/6 over 4.5) and Lillestrom's last 4 away halves produced 5,5,10,8 (4/4 over 4.5), a 10/10 combined hit rate. Full-time corners also lean Over (expected (6.00+5.00)/2 + (6.30+6.20)/2 = 11.75 vs line 10.0; IK Start home 3-of-4 decided Over with two pushes at exactly 10), and the 10-place quality gap (Lillestrom 6th vs IK Start 16th) plus the very large away corner market pricing error (AC_5 3.20) reinforce sustained-pressure Over value. Raw score ~90% capped at the standard 82% tier ceiling because H2H has only one match, blocking the elevated tier. |
|
| 01-11-2026 16:00 |
Hungary NB II |
Soroksar |
- |
Kozarmisleny SE |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected goals are 3.55: (2.70 + 2.00)/2 + (0.90 + 1.50)/2, well above the 2.75 line. Soroksar have seen 8/10 matches go Over 2.75 while Kozarmisleny are 6/10, and Kozarmisleny conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games; both H2H meetings produced 5 goals albeit from only a 2-match sample. The home side's GL_5 of 2.35 signals strong bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction, while the 1st-half line is less attractive at expected 1.25 vs a 1.25 line. |
|
| 01-11-2026 16:15 |
France Ligue 1 |
Lyon |
- |
Angers |
1st Half Over 5 Corners |
80% |
Expected 1st-half corners = (Lyon home 2.50 + Angers away conceded 3.20)/2 + (Angers away 2.80 + Lyon home conceded 3.60)/2 = 2.85 + 3.20 = 6.05, clearing the 5.0 line by +1.05. Both teams' 1st-half corner history is strongly Over: Lyon hit 6+ first-half corners in 7 of 10 recent matches (totals 8,11,2,3,6,7,7,1,10,6) and Angers in 7 of 10 (6,4,6,8,5,6,8,6,9,2), each 70% with only one push at exactly 5. Structural support: Lyon are dominant at home (10 GF/3 GA in 4 home league games, 5th vs 14th Angers) and generate sustained pressure — mutual-opponent data shows Angers conceding 14.63 shots and 5.13 on target per game with 45.4 dangerous attacks against — while both sides push high corner volume and the corner line shows heavy bookmaker mispricing (AC_5 2.70 home / 2.40 away). With line 5.0 provider over at 2.05, the 70%/10%-push/20%-loss profile gives strong positive value versus the ~49% implied break-even. |
|
| 01-11-2026 16:30 |
Germany Bundesliga I |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
- |
Hamburg |
Over 3.25 Goals |
76% |
Expected total is 3.95 goals — (A 2.40 home scored + B 1.90 away conceded)/2 = 2.15 plus (C 1.20 away scored + D 2.40 home conceded)/2 = 1.80 — a +0.70 gap over the 3.25 quarter line, and the independent shot-based match potential also clears the line (49.6 total shots ÷ 7.44 shots-per-goal = 6.67). Frankfurt's last 10 matches went 4+ goals in 8 of 10 (80%), Hamburg have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (5 at Leipzig, 2 at Dortmund, 2 at Hoffenheim), mutual-opponent goals volume is 3.34 (above the line) and the three H2H meetings produced 4, 3 and 2 goals. Bookmaker mispricing points the same direction as the Over — Frankfurt GL_5 1.90 (GL_10 2.28, stabilising but high) and Hamburg GL_5 1.55 — so the raw checklist score of ~95% is capped at the standard 82% ceiling and trimmed to 76% for Hamburg's weaker 40% over-3.25 record; the quarter-line also protects half the stake at exactly 3 goals. |
|
| 01-11-2026 17:00 |
Cyprus Division 1 |
Omonia Aradippou |
- |
Apoel Nicosia |
Over 2.5 Goals |
76% |
Expected goals total is 3.55 — (A+B)/2 + (C+D)/2 = (1.40+1.50)/2 + (2.70+1.50)/2 — a full 1.05 above the 2.5 line, and Apoel's away matches have gone Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 (0-0 at Pafos, then 2-2, 2-1, 3-1, 3-3, 1-3), scoring in five of six and conceding 2+ in four of the last five on the road, while Omonia Aradippou's home games are 3/5 Over with 1.40 scored and 1.50 conceded at the Aradippou Stadium. Bookmaker mispricing is real on both sides — home GL_5 1.80 / GL_10 1.93 and away GL_5 1.95 / GL_10 2.00 — both above the strong-mispricing threshold, and because the expected total sits far above the opening line the error points the same direction as the Over (shot-based match potential 50.4/6.93 = 7.3 also clears the line). The only drag is the home side's league scoring drought (blanked in 3 of their last 5, only 4 goals in 7 league games, hitting Over 2.5 in just 3/10 overall), which is why the price stays at 1.85; H2H is a single 1-1 (2 goals) so it is neutral, and the 1st-half alternative (expected 1.55 vs a 1.0 line, only ~46% Poisson Over) is clearly inferior value. |
|
| 01-11-2026 17:00 |
Slovakia Super Liga |
Dukla Banska Bystrica |
- |
Dunajska Streda |
Over 3.25 Goals |
72% |
Expected total = (home scored 1.50 + away conceded 1.00)/2 + (away scored 3.00 + home conceded 1.40)/2 = 1.25 + 2.20 = 3.45, clearing the 3.25 line, and the shot-based check also qualifies (26.5 combined shots vs a 7.35 goals-to-shots ratio = 3.61 potential). Dunajska Streda's away matches have produced 1,5,3,5,5,7 goals (4 of 6 over 3.25, scoring 3+ in half of them) while Dukla's three home games this season went 1-0, 3-2, 2-2 (2 of 3 over), and the venue-matched mutual-opponent aggregates imply a 3.90 total (Streda 2.80 scored / 1.00 conceded vs Dukla 1.67 / 2.33, with Dukla shipping 6.33 shots on target per game). Home team's goal-line pricing error of 1.65 (moderate band, below its 1.75 ten-game baseline but still pointing Over) adds edge; the only H2H meeting (2-0) is too small a sample to veto. Scoring: base 50 + gap from line +4 + home history +5 + away history +5 + H2H +0 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +0 (dropped for stacking discipline) + home goal-line error +5 + away +0 + structural +0 = 74%, damped to 72% for small venue samples. |
|
| 01-11-2026 17:00 |
Croatia HNL |
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
- |
NK Osijek |
Over 10 Corners |
70% |
Expected corners calculate to 10.50: (4.7+4.2)/2 + (5.7+6.4)/2, above the 10.0 line. Lokomotiva's three home matches produced corner totals of 15, 11 and 13 (all over 10), while Osijek's away matches were 9, 12, 11 and 2 (2/4 over 10); H2H corner totals were 13 and 18 over with 6 and 9 under. The home side concedes 6.4 corners at home and Osijek averages 5.7 corners away, supporting sustained corner pressure and a 70% Over read. |
|
| 01-11-2026 18:00 |
Portugal Primeira Liga |
Maritimo |
- |
Santa Clara |
Over 2.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals are 2.85: Maritimo at home scores 1.10 and concedes 2.20, while Santa Clara away scores 1.50 and concedes 0.90, giving (1.10+0.90)/2 + (1.50+2.20)/2 = 2.85 against a 2.0 line. Maritimo has gone over 2.0 in 9 of their last 10 with one push, Santa Clara is at 5 of 10 over with one push, and the venue-matched mutual-opponent total is 2.25, all supporting the Over. Santa Clara’s top-four standing versus Maritimo’s 14th place and Maritimo’s 2.20 home concession rate reinforce the goals expectation; bookmaker mispricing is only mild for Santa Clara (GL_5 1.25) and well-calibrated for Maritimo (GL_5 0.75). |
|
| 01-11-2026 18:00 |
Morocco GNF 1 |
CODM Meknes |
- |
FAR Rabat |
Over 2.0 Goals |
74% |
Expected total is 2.75 goals ((1.60+1.20)/2 + (1.70+1.00)/2), a full 0.75 above the 2.0 line, with FAR Rabat's matches going over 2.0 in 6/10 (60%) and both H2H meetings clearing it (3-2 and 3-0); CODM sit at 5/10 over 2.0. The home side shows severe bookmaker mispricing on the goal line (GL_5 2.25 accelerating vs GL_10 2.03, single-team high so half adjustment applied) with expected goals above the opening 2.25 line, and FAR have conceded 2+ in each of their last three away games, supporting Over. Confidence is tempered (not boosted) by a low-scoring mutual-opponent profile (mutual_total 1.54) which is the only contradicting signal, leaving a modest but positive edge at 1.775. |
|
| 01-11-2026 18:15 |
Belgium First Division B |
Eupen |
- |
Excelsior Virton |
Over 3.0 Goals |
72% |
Expected total = (2.60+1.50)/2 + (1.40+1.40)/2 = 3.45 vs the 3.0 line (gap +0.45): Eupen average 2.60 scored and 1.40 conceded in 10 home games, and their last three home totals were 3, 4 and 5; shot-based potential (22.9 combined shots at a 6.51 shots-per-goal ratio) also points to ~3.5 goals. Virton concede 1.50 per away game (3 at Seraing, 3 at RAAL) and 41.7% of their goals conceded come in the 90th-minute window while Eupen score 34.6% of theirs there — a late-goal pattern reinforcing the Over. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate for both sides (GL_5 1.55 for Eupen, stabilising vs GL_10 1.70; 1.50 for Virton, accelerating vs GL_10 1.30) and aligns with the Over direction, supporting 72%; H2H and mutual-opponent samples are too small (g=1 each side) to move the number. |
|
| 01-11-2026 19:00 |
Andorra Premier Division |
FC Rangers |
- |
FC Santa Coloma |
1st Half Over 1.0 Goals |
65% |
Full-time Over 2.5 is vetoed by H2H (4/4 Under 2.5), so the stronger value is the 1st half: expected 1H total = (0.90+0.40)/2 + (1.00+0.80)/2 = 1.55 vs the 1.0 line. Rangers' home 1H matches were 3/7 over 1.0 with 3 pushes, while Santa Coloma's away 1H matches were 4/10 over 1.0 with 4 pushes; combined recent sample is 7 wins, 7 pushes, 3 losses, giving useful push protection. Santa Coloma scored in the first half in 80% of last 10 and sits 1st (20-3) vs Rangers 5th (7-7); GL_5 0.75/1.15 is not adverse, so confidence lands at 65%. |
|
| 01-11-2026 19:00 |
USA USL Championship |
Lexington SC |
- |
Colorado Switchbacks FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
70% |
Expected goals: (Lexington home 2.70 scored + Colorado away 0.80 conceded)/2 + (Colorado away 1.30 scored + Lexington home 1.60 conceded)/2 = 1.75 + 1.45 = 3.20, which is 0.70 above the 2.5 line — the single largest gap on the card. Lexington's last 10 produced 8/10 Over 2.5 (3-3 Phoenix, 5-3 Las Vegas, 3-1 El Paso, 3-2 Monterey, 6-0 Orange County, 4-1 Oakland, 2-3 Sporting Jax, 1-2 New Mexico) and their bookmaker mispricing on the goal line is severe at 2.85 goals over the last 5 and accelerating (2.43 over 10), while the pre-computed mutual-opponent totals give a combined 2.94 goals (Lexington 2.30 for / 0.80 against; Colorado 1.44 / 1.33) with Lexington winning all five stat categories. The pick is held to 70% rather than the raw ceiling because Colorado's own matches have gone Under 2.5 in 7 of 10 (only 3/10 Over) and their goal line has landed 1.55 goals below the opener across the last 5, and the two H2H meetings finished 0-1 and 1-1 — a small sample (neutral by rule) but the reason I cap confidence at 70% instead of the 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 01-11-2026 19:00 |
Canada Premier League |
Atletico Ottawa |
- |
Forge FC |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
1st-half expected goals = (0.30+0.10)/2 + (0.90+0.60)/2 = 0.95, below the 1.25 line. Atletico Ottawa are 9/10 under 1.25 in first halves and have scored 0 first-half goals in their last five home matches, while Forge away concede only 0.10 first-half goals and are also 9/10 under 1.25 in first halves; H2H 1H sample is only two matches (0 and 1 goals), so neutral. Confidence 75% = base 50 + gap +5 + home HT history +10 + away HT history +10, with the key structural supports being Atletico's home first-half scoring drought and Forge's away first-half defensive solidity. |
|
| 01-11-2026 19:30 |
Uruguay Clausura |
Danubio |
- |
Nacional De Football |
Over 9.0 Corners |
82% |
Expected corners are 10.8 — (5.6 home corners + 4.4 away corners conceded)/2 + (7.3 away corners + 4.3 home corners conceded)/2 — well above the 9.0 line. Danubio have 6/10 matches with 10+ total corners and Nacional 7/10 over 9.0, while both H2H meetings produced 13 corners; the large quality gap (Nacional 4th overall vs Danubio 16th) supports sustained away pressure and corner volume. Confidence is capped at the 82% standard ceiling despite the strong line gap and historical agreement. |
|
| 01-11-2026 19:45 |
Italy Serie A |
Juventus |
- |
Napoli |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected total = (A 1.70 Juve home scored + B 1.60 Napoli away conceded)/2 + (C 1.90 Napoli away scored + D 1.30 Juve home conceded)/2 = 1.65 + 1.60 = 3.25, which is 0.75 goals above the 2.5 line. Both teams clear the Over at 60% in the relevant venue (Juventus home: 2-2, 5-0, 0-3 Lazio, 2-0 Atalanta, 1-1 Milan; Napoli away: 1-4 Monza, 3-1 Villarreal, 3-2 Inter, 1-0 Venezia, 1-1 Fiorentina), and both H2H meetings went Over (Juventus 3-0 Napoli, Napoli 2-1 Juventus). Napoli carries severe, accelerating bookmaker mispricing with GL_5 2.50 vs GL_10 1.93 in the same direction as the Over, while Juventus is tightly calibrated (GL_5 0.60). Shot-based match potential also comfortably clears the line, supporting Over 2.5. |
|
| 01-11-2026 20:00 |
Portugal Liga 3 |
Paredes |
- |
Sao Joao Ver |
1st Half Over 1.0 Goals |
68% |
1st-half expected total = (1.50+0.30)/2 + (0.50+0.50)/2 = 1.40, comfortably above the 1.0 line, and the 1.0 whole line gives push protection. Paredes have scored before the break in all six home games this season (HT goals 3,1,4,1,3,2 — 2+ in four of six, never 0), while Sao Joao Ver scored exactly one first-half goal in three of their four away games, so a 2+ HT total is well supported. Bookmaker mispricing is strong and aligned with the Over: Paredes GL_5 2.20 vs GL_10 1.98 (accelerating), a line the market repeatedly mis-sets. FT Over 2.5 is filtered out — Sao Joao's away games went over 2.5 in only 1 of 4 and two recent H2H meetings finished 0-0. Confidence: Base 50 + gap +8 (0.40 over line) + home HT history +8 + away HT scoring +5 + H2H +0 + early-scoring structural +8 = 79%, calibrated down to 68% for Sao Joao conceding 0 first-half goals across their away sample. |
|
| 01-11-2026 21:00 |
Panama LPF |
Sporting San Miguelito |
- |
UMECIT |
Over 2.25 Goals |
67% |
Expected full-time total = (1.40 home scored + 1.10 away conceded)/2 + (1.20 away scored + 1.30 home conceded)/2 = 2.50, which clears the 2.0/2.5 split line by 0.25, and the shot-based model (33.4 combined total shots / 7.42 shots-per-goal = 4.50 match potential) also clears the line comfortably. H2H is 2 of 3 over 2.5 (0-1, 2-2, 2-2) and the pre-computed mutual-opponent total of (1.00+1.50+1.86+1.43)/2 = 2.90 sits above the line, while the 1st-half sample is weak (only 4/10 home and 2/10 away matches reached 2 first-half goals against a 0.75 line) so full-time is the stronger half. Match history is mixed (Sporting 4/10, UMECIT 5/10 over 2.5) but UMECIT went under only twice in 10 and the home side's goal line shows moderate accelerating mispricing (GL_5 1.80 vs GL_10 1.53) in the Over's favour, giving 50% base +5% gap +5% H2H +5% common opponents +5% bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5) -3% likelihood (45% over 2.5) = 67%. |
|
| 01-11-2026 21:00 |
El Salvador Apertura |
Fuerte San Francisco |
- |
CD Aguila |
Over 2.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected total 2.95 clears the 2.5 line by +0.45: home scored at home A=0.90 vs away conceded B=0.90, away scored away C=2.40 vs home conceded D=1.70 → (0.90+0.90)/2 + (2.40+1.70)/2 = 2.95, and the shot-based match potential (42.8 shots / 7.41 ratio ≈ 2.9 even unmultiplied) also sits above the line. CD Aguila's last-10 matches went Over 2.5 in 7/10 (70%: 4,3,5,3,4,4,5 goals) and Fuerte San Francisco's home games cleared 2.5 in 3/5 (1-2, 2-1, 0-3), while H2H is 3 of 4 Over 2.5 including the recent 4-1 and 2-3. Structural late-goal pattern supports Over: Aguila score 36% of goals in the 90th minute+ and Fuerte concede 29% at 75' and 29% at 90'. Likelihood FT Over 2.5 = 60%. Caution: mutual-opponents total is only 1.775 (Under lean, -5%), and bookmaker mispricing is only mild — home GL_5 1.00 (calibrated) and away GL_5 1.30 stabilising vs GL_10 1.58 — so no variance boost, but the Over-first edge from line gap, away history and H2H still qualifies the bet. Corners skipped (no line offered). |
|
| 01-11-2026 21:00 |
Canada Premier League |
Supra du Quebec |
- |
Cavalry FC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected total is 3.60: Supra scores 2.00 and concedes 1.80 at home, while Cavalry scores 2.20 and concedes 1.20 away, giving (2.00+1.20)/2 + (2.20+1.80)/2 = 3.60, which is 0.60 above the 3.0 line. Cavalry had 6 of 10 recent matches over 3.0 and conceded 2+ in three of their last five away games, while Supra scored 2+ in their last three home games; mutual-opponent total is 2.99 and H2H is mixed (6-0, 1-1, 2-1, 1-0). Bookmaker mispricing is moderate and aligned with the Over (GL_5 1.50 home, 1.70 away). |
|
| 01-11-2026 22:00 |
USA NWSL Women |
NJ/NY Gotham FC Women |
- |
Utah Royals Women |
Over 2.75 Goals |
68% |
Expected total is 2.65 (home 1.40 scored / 1.10 conceded at home; away 1.20 scored / 1.60 conceded away), within 0.15 of the 2.75 line, and both teams are 6/10 Over 2.75 in recent matches. Utah have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (4-2 at San Diego, 2-1 at Denver, 3-2 at Chicago), the only H2H finished 1-3 (4 goals), and mutual-opponent total is 2.705; the 1st-half line is less supported (HT Over 1.25 only 20% home / 40% away). |
|
| 01-11-2026 22:00 |
USA NWSL Women |
North Carolina Courage Women |
- |
Denver Summit FC Women |
Over 3.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected total is 3.70 vs the 3.0 line: (1.70+1.60)/2 + (2.80+1.30)/2, with Denver scoring 2.80 away and going over 3.0 in 6/10 recent matches; mutual-opponent total is 3.25 and also clears the line. Full-time A9: base 50 + gap +14 + away history +5 + mutual opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + away GL_5 +3 = 80, while home GL_5 is well-calibrated at 0.85 and away GL_5 1.70 is stabilising but directionally aligned. H2H is only one match (0-2) so neutral, and the 1st-half line was weaker (HT expected 1.50 vs 1.25, with only 3/10 home HT overs), so the full-time Over is the best bet. |
|
| 01-11-2026 22:00 |
USA NWSL Women |
Angel City FC Women |
- |
Boston Legacy FC Women |
Over 3.0 Goals |
66% |
Expected FT goals = (2.30 + 2.10)/2 + (1.80 + 1.10)/2 = 3.65, above the 3.0 line. Angel City have scored 2+ in their last three home matches, Boston conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away, and the only H2H was Boston 2-5 Angel; Boston's last 10 show only one Under 3.0 (4 overs, 5 pushes), though mutual-opponent total 2.65 is a mild negative. Scoring: base 50 + gap +13 + home history 0 + away history 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents -5 + likelihood 0 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 0 + structural away fragility +5 + form +3 = 66%. |
|
| 01-11-2026 23:00 |
Uruguay Clausura |
Albion FC |
- |
Deportivo Maldonado |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time goals = (A+B)/2 + (C+D)/2 = (1.30 home scored + 0.80 Maldonado conceded away)/2 + (2.20 Maldonado scored away + 1.70 Albion conceded home)/2 = 1.05 + 1.95 = 3.00, a +0.50 gap over the 2.5 line, and the shot-based cross-check (38.4 total shots / 6.88 shots-per-goal ratio = 5.58 match potential) also clears the line. History backs it: Albion are Over 2.5 in 7/10 recent matches (last three home games produced 4, 5 and 3 goals) and Maldonado in 6/10, while H2H is 2/3 Over (4-1, 1-1, 1-2) and Maldonado have scored 2+ in four of their last five (4-0, 2-1, 2-3, 4-1). Structural Over support comes from Albion conceding 5.2 shots on target per home game (5.1 vs mutual opponents), with mutual-opponent goals volume of 2.59 clearing the line, and the bookmaker's pricing error is accelerating on both sides (home GL_5 1.75 vs GL_10 1.63; away 1.45 vs 1.05) with direction aligned to the Over. |
|
| 01-11-2026 23:15 |
Panama LPF |
CA Independiente de la Chorrera |
- |
San Francisco FC |
Over 2.25 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time total = (1.60+1.10)/2 + (2.00+1.50)/2 = 3.10 goals vs the 2.25 line (gap +0.85); the shot-based check (40.4 total shots / 6.88 shots-per-goal ratio) also clears the line, and mutual-opponent goals volume is 3.59. San Francisco's 10 away matches average 3.5 goals with 6/10 going 3+ (60%), Independiente's last 10 home matches average 3.6 total goals, and the away side has scored 2.00 per away game with 2+ goals in 6 of 10 — against an away defence conceding 1.10 with only one 2+ concession in five, so the Over case rests on combined attacking output rather than a leaky defence. Market pricing error supports the Over: home GL_5 1.55 vs GL_10 1.18 is accelerating moderate mispricing (+5%), away GL_5 1.20 is mild; H2H is neutral (two 0-0s plus 2-1, 3-0 — exactly 50% over this line, so no veto), and 1st-half (expected 1.55 vs a 1.0 line with the home side only 3/10 over 1) is weaker, so full-time is the play. Confidence: base 50 + gap 15 + away history 5 + mutual opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + home pricing error 5 = 83% capped at the 82% standard tier (elevated 85% not reached because both teams are not 70%+ in history), adjusted to 80% for neutral H2H and a home history of only 50%. |
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