| 05-09-2026 13:00 |
Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
Stjørdals/Blink |
- |
Eidsvold TF |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.25 (home scored 2.30, conceded 1.50 at home; away scored 3.40, conceded 1.30 away) clears the 3.25 line by 1.0 goals. Eidsvold TF matches are over 3.25 in 7 of 10 (70%), while Stjørdals/Blink are 50% and not contradicting; H2H is 1 match (3-0) so neutral. Bookmaker mispricing GL_5 1.75 home / 1.50 away aligns Over; raw score capped at 82% standard ceiling due to home history below 70% and neutral H2H. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:00 |
Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
Nardo |
- |
Spjelkavik |
Over 3.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.90 (A=1.70, B=1.90, C=1.90, D=2.30) vs line 3.5; Nardo 6/10 and Spjelkavik 6/10 recent matches went over 3.5, mutual-opponent total 3.90, and Spjelkavik conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away. Scoring: base 50% + gap 8% + home history 5% + away history 5% + common opponents 5% + likelihood 3% + away defensive fragility 5% = 81%, GL_5 both below 1.0 (no pricing error). |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:00 |
Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
Rade IL |
- |
Gjøvik-Lyn |
Rade IL -0.25 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Rade IL sit 3rd (32 pts) vs 4th-placed Gjøvik-Lyn (29 pts) and won the away H2H 3-0. Split-based expected goals are 2.30-1.45 for a +0.85 margin, enough to cover -0.25. Mutual opponents show Rade with a +2.2 vs +0.4 goals NET edge and 3W1D1L vs 2W1D2L record, though their recent AH form is mixed at 2W3L last 5. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:00 |
Finland Kolmonen |
Gilla FC |
- |
GrIFK Reservi |
GrIFK Reservi +0.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
GrIFK sit 7th (23 pts) vs Gilla 8th (21 pts) and have covered +0.25 in 8 of their last 10 away-specific matches (4W-4D-2L), with an 8-2 AH record over their last 10 overall; Gilla are just 5-5 AH over their last 10. Mutual opponents lean Gilla on net shots/goal efficiency (4-1 advantage count), but standings and strong current AH covering form support the away side +0.25. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:00 |
Denmark Division 3 |
Næsby |
- |
Horsholm-Usserod IK |
Over 3.0 Goals |
78% |
Confidence 78%: 50 base +8 gap (expected 3.40 vs line 3.0) +0 home/away history +0 H2H (2 matches) +5 common opponents -3 likelihood +5 GL_5 home +8 GL_5 away +5 away defensive fragility. Averages: Næsby home 1.90 scored/1.20 conceded, Horsholm away 1.70 scored/2.00 conceded; shot-based potential 3.72, H2H 5-0/4-1, mutual-opponent total 3.66. Away defensive fragility (2+ conceded in 3 of last 5 away; 5.5 on target conceded) and market pricing error support Over. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:00 |
Czechia First League |
Slovacko |
- |
Pardubice |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is 3.15 vs line 2.5 (A=1.30 home scored, B=1.60 away conceded, C=1.40 away scored, D=2.00 home conceded); Slovacko 7/10 over 2.5, Pardubice 6/10 over 2.5, shot-based potential 6.16; H2H only 2 matches (both under, neutral by sample) and mutual-opponent total 3.22 supports over; Pardubice conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away. HT Over 1.0 had expected 1.50 vs line 1.0 but history 30%/50% fails threshold, so full-time is stronger. Scoring: Base 50% + gap 13% + home hist 8% + away hist 5% + H2H 0% + common opp 5% + likelihood 3% + GL_5 home 0% + GL_5 away 0% + quality gap 0% + away fragility 5% + scoring drought 0% + form 0% + attack suppression 0% = 89% raw, capped to 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:00 |
Czechia First League |
Sigma Olomouc |
- |
Bohemians 1905 |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
71% |
Expected FT total 2.90 (home scored 1.90 at home, away conceded 1.20 away, away scored 1.70 away, home conceded 1.00 at home) vs current 2.5/3.0 line. Sigma home is 4/6 (67%) over 2.5, Bohemians away 4/7 (57%) over 2.5, and H2H is 3/4 over 2.5; Bohemians conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches. Home GL_5 1.00 and away GL_5 1.25 are mild, no added edge; mutual opponents total 2.55 vs 2.75 slightly cools the Over lean. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:30 |
Wales Championship South |
Ynyshir Albions |
- |
Pontypridd Utd |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 3.25 goals ((1.30+1.70)/2 + (2.30+1.20)/2) vs a 2.75 line, and shot-based match potential is 5.39. Pontypridd away are 8/10 (80%) Over 2.5, H2H ended 1-3 (Over), and mutual-opponent total 3.02 clears the line; away defence conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away. Bookmaker mispricing GL_5 is 1.75 home and 1.90 away; raw score 88 capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:30 |
Wales Championship South |
Llantwit Major |
- |
Cardiff Draconians |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.05 (home scored 1.10/conceded 3.10 at home; away scored 1.90/conceded 2.00 away) clears the 3.0 line by 1.05 goals. Llantwit 7/10 recent matches over 3.0 (2 pushes) and Cardiff 7/10 recent matches over 3.0. Cardiff conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (Ammanford 2-1, Trefelin 3-1, Aberystwyth 3-2); bookmaker mispricing home GL5 1.55, away GL5 2.35; H2H only one match (2-0 under, neutral). Raw 91 capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:30 |
Germany Bundesliga I |
Borussia M'gladbach |
- |
Elversberg |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Borussia M'gladbach average 3.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded at home, while Elversberg average 3.00 scored and 1.30 conceded away, giving a full-time expected total of 4.55 against the 3.0 line. Both teams went over 3.0 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70% each), and Elversberg have conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches. Elversberg's GL_5 of 1.85 is a strong, accelerating bookmaker mispricing aligned with the over. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:30 |
Germany Bundesliga I |
Bayer Leverkusen |
- |
Union Berlin |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected first-half total is 1.70 vs a 1.25 line (gap 0.45). Both Bayer Leverkusen (6/10) and Union Berlin (6/10) have recent matches over 1.25 first-half goals, and Union Berlin conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches. Union Berlin's market pricing error (GL_5 2.10) is strong and trend-accelerating, adding edge to the over. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:30 |
Germany Bundesliga I |
TSG Hoffenheim |
- |
Borussia Dortmund |
Over 1.0,1.5 First Half Goals |
78% |
HT expected total is 2.10 (Hoffenheim home 1.50 scored/0.90 conceded, Dortmund away 1.20 scored/0.60 conceded) vs a 1.25 line, a +0.85 gap. Both teams went over 1.25 HT goals in 6 of their last 10 (60% each); H2H sample is only 2 matches (1-0 HT in April, 2-0 FT in December), so neutral. Dortmund's away GL_5 is 1.75 and accelerating, giving Over directional bookmaker mispricing. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:30 |
Wales Championship North |
Newtown |
- |
Denbigh Town |
Over 1.5 First Half Goals |
77% |
Expected 1H total 1.95 (Newtown home HT 1.00 scored/1.30 conceded; Denbigh away HT 0.80 scored/0.80 conceded) clears the 1.5 line by +0.45. Newtown are 7/10 and Denbigh are 6/10 over 1.5 first-half goals in their recent matches, and Denbigh have conceded 2+ in four of their last five away. Confidence: base 50% + gap 9% + home history 8% + away history 5% + quality gap 5% = 77%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 13:30 |
Wales Championship North |
Brickfield Rangers |
- |
Guilsfield |
Brickfield Rangers -0.5 Asian Handicap |
70% |
Brickfield are 1st (15 pts) and 3-0-0 at home with 9-1 goals, while Guilsfield are 8th (9 pts) and 0-2-1 away with 3-5 goals. Brickfield have covered -0.5 in 5 of their last 5 AH matches and 8 of 10 overall, with last five margins +2, +5, +1, +4, +2. Mutual opponents also lean home: Brickfield 5W-0D-5L vs Guilsfield 1W-4D-4L and a goals-net edge of +0.1 vs -0.55. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Poland III Liga |
JKS Jaroslaw |
- |
Korona Kielce II |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Home avg 2.1 scored and 1.5 conceded at home; away avg 2.2 scored and 2.3 conceded away, giving expected FT total (2.1+2.3)/2+(2.2+1.5)/2=4.05 vs a 3.25 line. Both teams went over 3.5 in 7 of last 10 (70%), and away conceded 2+ in five straight away games (3,5,2,4,3), with severe bookmaker mispricing GL_5 3.05 and 6.0 shots on target conceded away. H2H empty; raw score 87% capped at standard 82% ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Poland III Liga |
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki |
- |
CK Troszyn |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.90 vs line 3.5 (home 2.10 scored/2.10 conceded at home, away 1.20 scored/2.40 conceded away), mutual-opponent total 3.8 also clears the line. Home are 5/10 Over 3.5 and away 4/10 Over 3.5, H2H was 4-1 and 1-2, but bookmaker mispricing is severe: home GL_5 2.15 and away GL_5 2.25, both accelerating, and away concedes 5.2 shots on target per away game. Scoring: Base 50% + gap +8% + home history +0% + away history +0% + H2H +0% + common opponents +5% + likelihood +0% + GL_5 home +8% + GL_5 away +8% + structural +5% = 84% capped at 82%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Estonia Meistriliiga |
Parnu JK Vaprus |
- |
JK Nomme United |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total is 3.70 (home 1.60 scored/2.00 conceded, away 1.50 scored/2.30 conceded) vs line 3.25; common-opponents total 3.65 also over, Parnu 7/10 and Nomme United 6/10 last matches ended 4+ goals, H2H 3/3 over (5,5,8), and Nomme United conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away. Breakdown: base 50% + gap 5% + home history 8% + away history 5% + H2H 5% + common opponents 5% + structural away fragility 5% = 83% raw, capped to 82% standard ceiling; market pricing error mild (GL_5 1.15/1.40). HT was evaluated too (expected 2.15 vs 1.25 line) but scored only 78%, so FT is the stronger bet. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Iceland 1 Deild |
IF Vestri |
- |
Throttur Reykjavik |
Throttur Reykjavik Asian Handicap 0 |
65% |
Throttur sit 2nd (40 pts) vs 8th-place Vestri (27 pts), and Throttur’s away profile (2.30 scored, 1.30 conceded per game) is stronger than Vestri’s home profile (0.80 scored, 2.40 conceded). Throttur’s recent form reads 5W-2D-3L, and the mutual-opponent comparison favours them on 4 of 5 stats with a goals NET of +0.67 vs Vestri’s -0.20. Level-ball odds of 1.775 offer enough value at 65% confidence. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Iceland 1 Deild |
Njardvik |
- |
Afturelding |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is (2.30+1.40)/2 + (3.10+1.70)/2 = 4.25 against the 3.0/3.5 line, a gap of about 1.0 goals. Njardvik's last 10 produced 6 overs (60%) and Afturelding's last 10 produced 7 overs (70%) at this line; H2H totals were 2-0 and 5-2, and mutual opponents averaged 3.85 total goals. Afturelding carries a 1.85 GL_5 bookmaker mispricing mark and conceded 2+ goals in four of their last five away games, supporting Over. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Iceland 1 Deild |
Grotta Seltjarnarnes |
- |
Volsungur |
Over 3.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected total 3.40 vs line 3.5 (within 0.15 over-first preference); Volsungur away over 3.5 in 6/10 (Grotta home 4/10); mutual opponents total 4.1 clears 3.5; Volsungur conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (4,3,3) and allows 6.9 c_avg_on_target. Confidence: base 50% + away history 5% + common opponents 5% + away defensive fragility 5% = 65%; home history +0, gap +0, H2H one match 2-2 neutral +0, likelihood neutral, GL_5 home 1.45/away 0.95. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Sweden 1.div Södra |
Ariana FC Malmo |
- |
Atvidabergs FF |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 4.20 (Ariana home 2.10 scored/1.90 conceded; Atvidabergs away 2.50 scored/1.90 conceded) vs 3.0 line. Both teams are over 3.0 in 6 of last 10 matches, and Atvidabergs conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away games. Mutual opponents total 4.00 and away GL_5 1.50 support Over; raw score 90.5% capped to 82% standard tier. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Scotland Premiership |
Aberdeen |
- |
Kilmarnock |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT goals: (1.80+1.80)/2 + (1.60+1.20)/2 = 3.20 vs 2.75 line; 7/10 Aberdeen and 7/10 Kilmarnock recent matches over 2.5/3.0. H2H totals 1,3,3,1 are neutral; Kilmarnock conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away and away GL_5=2.45, supporting over. Confidence 82% (50 base +10 gap +8 home +8 away +5 common +4 away GL_5 +5 structural = 90 capped at 82). |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Scotland Championship |
Arbroath |
- |
Dunfermline |
Over 9.0 Corners |
65% |
Expected total corners are 9.70 against a 9.0 line (Arbroath home corners 4.80/4.50 conceded, Dunfermline away 5.80/4.30 conceded). Arbroath's matches have gone over 9.0 corners in 6/10 (60%) and Dunfermline's in 5/10 (50%), while H2H totals were 12, 6, 16, and 10 (3/4 over). Confidence: base 50% + 5% expected gap + 5% home history + 5% H2H alignment = 65%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Scotland League Two |
Stirling |
- |
Spartans |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Stirling home averages 1.60 scored/1.90 conceded and Spartans away 2.20 scored/2.00 conceded produce an expected FT total of 3.85 vs the 2.75 line. Stirling are 7/10 and Spartans 8/10 over 2.5 goals in their last 10, H2H is 2/4 over, and Spartans have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches. Market pricing error GL_5 is 1.60 for Stirling and 2.25 for Spartans, both accelerating — raw score 96 capped at standard ceiling 82%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Scotland League Two |
Forfar |
- |
Stranraer |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total = (0.80+1.70)/2 + (1.30+2.70)/2 = 3.25 vs 2.5 line (+0.75); Forfar 6/10 and Stranraer 6/10 over 2.5, H2H 2/3 over (2-2, 3-1). Stranraer away conceded 2+ in 4 of last 4 away; away market pricing error GL_5 1.60. Scoring: Base 50 + gap 15 + home history 5 + away history 5 + H2H 5 + common opponents 0 + likelihood 0 + pricing error home 0/away 2.5 + structural away fragility 5 = 87.5 raw, capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Scotland League Two |
Dumbarton |
- |
Elgin |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.60 vs line 2.75 (A=1.10, B=1.60, C=2.10, D=2.40); Dumbarton 6/10 and Elgin 7/10 recent matches over 2.75, mutual opponents total 2.93 also clears the line, away market pricing error GL_5 1.60 aligns Over. Breakdown: Base 50 + gap 15 + home history 5 + away history 8 - H2H 5 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + away GL_5 half adjustment 2.5 = 83.5, capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Scotland League Two |
Clyde |
- |
FC Edinburgh |
Over 2.75 Goals |
78% |
Clyde at home average 1.70 scored and 2.10 conceded; FC Edinburgh away average 1.50 scored and 1.10 conceded, giving an expected total of 3.20 vs the 2.75 line. Clyde are 9/10 over 2.75 in recent matches, H2H is 3/4 over (0-2, 5-0, 4-1, 2-1), and the mutual-opponent total is 3.03, with FC Edinburgh's 5.38 c_avg_on_target flagging a structural Over signal. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Belgium Super League Women |
Club Brugge Women |
- |
Standard Liege Women |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
75% |
Expected full-time total is (1.10+1.70)/2 + (1.10+2.20)/2 = 3.05 goals, 0.30 above the 2.75 effective line. Club Brugge went over 2.5 in 6/9 matches (67%) and Standard Liege in 5/8 (63%); all 4 H2Hs produced 3+ goals (2-1, 2-2, 0-3, 4-2). Standard Liege have conceded 2+ in each of their last 5 away matches, and both GL_5s are 0.95 (<1.0), so no bookmaker-mispricing edge was added. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Slovakia 2. Liga |
MFK Zvolen |
- |
FK Pohronie |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
79% |
Expected total 3.15 (A=1.50, B=1.90, C=1.60, D=1.30) vs 2.75 line; FK Pohronie are 7/10 over 2.75 (70%) and MFK Zvolen 5/10 (50%), H2H 2-2, mutual opponents total 3.00. Away defensive fragility confirmed: Pohronie conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away (Galanta 2-0, Zilina 2-1, Lehota 3-3, Komarno 5-0), with 5.8 shots on target conceded per away game. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Slovakia 2. Liga |
MSK Povazska Bystrica |
- |
OFK Banik Lehota |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 3.35 ((1.50+1.40)/2 + (2.10+1.70)/2) against a 2.75 goal line (+0.60 gap). Both sides have 7 of 10 matches over 2.75 (70% each), and the only H2H ended 2-1. Banik Lehota's away defence conceded 2+ goals in three of their last five away games (2-2 at Vion Zlate Moravce, 2-2 at OK Castkovce, 2-2 at Liptovsky Mikulas); raw confidence 84% capped at the standard 82% ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England League 1 |
Luton |
- |
Leyton Orient |
Over 3.0 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 3.45 (home scored 2.0, away conceded 1.0, away scored 2.2, home conceded 1.7) vs line 3.0; shot-based match potential 6.80. Last 10s went over 3.0 only 5/10 each (H2H 2 matches neutral), while mutual-opponent total 2.74 trims confidence; however home GL_5 2.35 and away GL_5 1.50 signal bookmaker mispricing. Score: base 50 + gap 10 + GL_5 home 8 + GL_5 away 5 - common opponents 5 = 68%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England League 1 |
Bradford |
- |
Mansfield |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.50 vs line 2.5 (A=1.70, B=2.40, C=1.90, D=1.00). Mansfield are 9/10 Over 2.5 away, concede 2.40 away, and 3 of last 5 away conceded 2+; away bookmaker mispricing is 1.90. Scoring: 50+15+0+10+0-5+3+0+4+5=82% capped at standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Northern Ireland Premier |
Cliftonville |
- |
Portadown |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 3.05 vs line 2.75: A=1.50, B=1.80, C=1.30, D=1.50. Home 7/10 (70%) and away 6/10 (60%) full-time matches over 2.75; mutual opponents total 4.0 supports Over, away c_avg_on_target 5.10 flags weak goalkeeper. Scoring breakdown: Base 50% + gap from line +5% + home history +8% + away history +5% + H2H neutral +0% + common opponents +5% + likelihood +3% + market pricing error home +0% + market pricing error away +0% + structural +0% = 76% (standard ceiling 82%). |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Northern Ireland Premier |
Bangor FC |
- |
Ballymena Utd |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time total is 3.40 (Bangor home 1.10 scored/2.30 conceded, Ballymena away 2.30 scored/1.10 conceded), clearing the 2.75 line by 0.65. Bangor and Ballymena both show 7/10 matches over 2.5, and Bangor have conceded 3+ in 4 of their last 5 home games; H2H is mixed (1/3 over) but Ballymena's 13 goals across their last 5 away games supports the over. Market pricing error is mild only (home GL_5 1.15, away 1.00), so no strong bookmaker mispricing adjustment. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Norway Eliteserien |
Rosenborg |
- |
Ham-Kam |
Rosenborg -1.5 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Mutual opponents strongly favour Rosenborg: 5/5 stats advantage, goals NET +0.9 vs -1.1, W6 D2 L2 against W1 D3 L6. Home/away standings gap supports the home side (Rosenborg 5th/17 pts at home vs Ham-Kam 12th/6 pts away), and Rosenborg's AH record is 7-3 over the last 10 vs Ham-Kam 4-6. Covering margin history is mixed (4 of last 8 cover -1.5), so confidence is capped at 65. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England National League South |
Slough |
- |
Braintree Town |
Over 3 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total is 4.10 (home 1.50 scored/2.80 conceded at home; away 1.30 scored/2.60 conceded away) vs a 3.0 line, a 1.10-goal gap. Braintree are 3/3 away over 3.0 in previous_matches, mutual opponents total 3.375 supports Over, and GL_5 2.30/1.65 both align Over. Raw score 98% capped at the standard 82% ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England National League South |
Horsham |
- |
Dag & Red |
Dag & Red +0.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Horsham sit 10th (8 pts) while Dag & Red lead the league (15 pts); Dag & Red have covered +0.25 in 4 of their last 5 away matches (80%) with a last-5 AH record of 3W-1V-1L. Mutual-opponent stats lean Horsham (4-1 advantage count), which tempers confidence, but the standings gap and away margin form are enough to support Dag & Red +0.25 at 1.85. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England National League South |
Chelmsford |
- |
Salisbury FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
68% |
FT expected total is 2.70 (home 1.40 scored/1.00 conceded at home, away 1.90 scored/1.10 conceded away) vs 2.75 line; shot-based match potential 6.4 and mutual-opponent total 2.8 lean over. Salisbury away games are 7/10 over 2.75, H2H ended 2-2 and 3-0, and 3 of Salisbury's last 5 away games conceded 2+ (away c_avg_on_target 5.89). Breakdown: Base 50% + gap 0% + home history 0% + away history +8% + H2H 0% + common opponents +5% + likelihood 0% + market pricing error home 0% + away 0% + structural away fragility +5% = 68%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England National League South |
Billericay Town |
- |
Dorking Wanderers |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected full-time total is 3.05 goals (A=2.00, B=1.40, C=1.60, D=1.10) vs the 2.75 line, with Billericay home 3/5 over 2.75 (60%) and Dorking away 5/7 over 2.75 (71%). Mutual-opponent games average 3.0 total goals and Dorking's c_avg_on_target of 5.25 is a structural Over signal, while GL_5 market pricing error is 1.80 for both sides and accelerating. The 1st half also clears its line (1.55 vs 1.25), but Dorking's away 1st-half Over rate is only 57%, so full-time is the stronger Over. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England National League South |
Maidstone Utd |
- |
Weston Super Mare |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.20 (home 2.90 scored/0.80 conceded at home, away 1.70 scored/1.00 conceded away) vs the 2.5 line, with 9/10 Maidstone and 6/10 Weston full-time matches going over; the lone H2H was 2-1. Mutual-opponent total of 3.25 and away GL_5 bookmaker mispricing of 1.55 support Over; raw score capped at 82% standard ceiling (full-time preferred to 1H, where Weston were over 1.0 in only 2/10). |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England National League North |
Oxford City |
- |
Chorley |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
74% |
Expected total 2.70 (A=1.90, B=1.30, C=1.20, D=1.00) versus the 2.5/3.0 line, with 6 of 10 home and 6 of 10 away matches going over 2.5. H2H is split at 2-0 and 3-3, the mutual-opponent total is 2.75, Chorley's common-opponent shots-on-target conceded is 5.0 (structural Over signal), and Oxford City's GL_5 of 1.80 shows moderate bookmaker mispricing toward the Over. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England National League North |
Morecambe |
- |
Buxton |
Buxton +0 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Morecambe sit 19th (4 pts) vs Buxton 11th (7 pts), and mutual opponents favour Buxton with 4 of 5 stat advantages (goals NET 0.0 vs -0.33; away avg goals 1.33 vs 0.67). Buxton's AH cover record is 5W-2V-3L last 10 vs Morecambe's 3W-1V-6L, and the AH line 0 away at 1.775 gives the edge. Goal-line expected totals (FT 2.45 vs line 2.75; HT 0.90 vs line 1.25) did not clear an Over, and corners had no market line. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England National League North |
Hereford FC |
- |
Spennymoor Town |
Hereford FC -0.5 Asian Handicap |
72% |
Hereford sit 4th (10 pts) and are 2nd at home (2W1D0L, 5:1 goals) while Spennymoor are 21st (4 pts) and 20th away (0W1D2L, 2:7 goals). Hereford have covered -0.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches and are 5/5 on Asian Handicap in that span, while Spennymoor are 1W-4L AH last 5. Mutual opponents favour Hereford across all 5 stats, and Spennymoor have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
England National League North |
Darlington 1883 |
- |
Kings Lynn Town |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
A=1.70, B=1.80, C=1.10, D=1.80 → expected FT total (1.70+1.80)/2+(1.10+1.80)/2=3.20 vs 2.75 line (+0.45). Both recent Over 2.5 records align at 3/5 each; Kings Lynn conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away; GL_5 bookmaker mispricing is home 1.80 (accelerating) and away 1.70, both pointing Over. Mutual opponent total 2.90 clears line and H2H 1-1 is only one neutral sample. Scoring: base 50 + gap 10 + home history 5 + away history 5 + GL home 5 + GL away 5 + away defensive fragility 5 = 85 capped at 82 (standard ceiling; gap <0.5). |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Hungary NB III |
Bicskei TC |
- |
Veszprem FC |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 4.25 (home 1.9 scored/2.9 conceded at home; away 1.3 scored/2.4 conceded away) versus the 3.0/3.5 line. Bicskei's last 10 matches produced 4+ goals in 9 of 10, while Veszprem's away defence is fragile (0-6 at Dorogi, 1-5 at Budaorsi, 1-4 at Ujpest) and mutual opponents averaged 3.65 total. Bookmaker mispricing is strongly over-aligned: GL_5 1.85 home/2.10 away, capped at standard 82%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Hungary NB III |
Monori SE |
- |
BKV Elore SC |
Over 3.5,4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total = (1.20+3.60)/2 + (1.50+2.10)/2 = 4.20 vs 3.75 line. Both sides cleared 4+ goals in 6/10 recent matches, and BKV's away defense is collapsing (conceded 2+ in four straight away: 9-1, 5-1, 6-0, 2-0; away avg conceded 3.60). Scoring: Base 50 + gap +5 + home history +5 + away history +5 + H2H +0 + common opponents +0 (excluded) + likelihood +0 + GL_5 home +5 + GL_5 away +12 + structural +5 = 87, capped at 82 (elevated not met: gap 0.45 < 0.50, H2H only 2 matches). |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Hungary NB III |
Csepel FC |
- |
Bekescsabai Elore SE |
Csepel FC -1.25 Asian Handicap |
68% |
Csepel's AH record is 4W-0V-1L (80%) last 5 and 8W-2L (80%) last 10, while Bekescsabai are 1W-1V-3L (25%) last 5 AH with 0 away wins in 3 away league matches. Standings gap supports the angle: Csepel 4th with 11 pts and 17-6 goals vs Bekescsabai 13th with 3 pts and 5-11 goals; Csepel home split is 11 scored/2 conceded vs Bekes away split 2 scored/4 conceded. Goal-line Over was rejected because away matches are only 20% over 3.25 (2/10) and 1st half line is unavailable. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Hungary NB III |
III Keruleti TUE |
- |
Szeged-Csanad Grosics II |
III Keruleti TUE -0.75 Asian Handicap |
72% |
III Keruleti TUE are 2nd (15 pts) with a perfect 3-0-0 home record (6 scored, 0 conceded) and a 4W-1L Asian Handicap run in their last 5, while Szeged-Csanad Grosics II have conceded 9 goals in 4 away matches. Mutual opponents strongly favour the home side: h w8 d2 l0 with 3.1 avg goals scored vs 0.7 conceded, against a w1 d2 l6 with 0.44 avg goals scored vs 1.67 conceded. Single H2H was 1-1, too small a sample to override. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Hungary NB III |
Gyulai Termal |
- |
FC Dabas |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.05 vs 3.5 line: home score 3.8 + away concede 2.3 /2 = 3.05, away score 1.4 + home concede 0.6 /2 = 1.0. Gyulai's home matches are 6/10 Over 3.5 and last three home games were 4-0, 5-1, 7-0; FC Dabas conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away and average 2.3 conceded. Home GL_5 is 1.90 (accelerating vs 1.48), supporting Over, while mutual-opponent total 3.53 clears the 3.5 line. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Hungary NB III |
BFC Siofok |
- |
Budaorsi SC |
Over 3.0 Goals (Full-Time) |
82% |
Expected total 3.65 vs 3.0 line (home 1.60 scored/1.20 conceded, away 2.60 scored/1.90 conceded). Budaorsi are 6 of 8 over 3.0 and conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away, with mutual-opponent total 4.83 supporting Over and H2H empty. Scoring: Base 50 + gap 10 + away history 8 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + away GL_5 8 + structural 5 = 89, capped 82. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Hungary NB III |
PEAC FC |
- |
Paksi SE II |
PEAC FC -0.75 Asian Handicap |
70% |
PEAC FC are 4th with a perfect 3-0-0 home record (10:3 goals) while Paksi SE II are 13th with a 0-1-2 away record (4:8). Paksi have gone 0W-5L on the Asian Handicap in their last 5 and lost by 2+ goals in 6 of their last 8 matches. Mutual opponents data gives PEAC the advantage in all 5 stats categories (goals, shots, shots on target, dangerous attacks, efficiency). |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Hungary NB III |
Debreceni II |
- |
FC Tiszaujvaros |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.85 (home 3.20 scored/1.20 conceded at home; away 1.10 scored/2.20 conceded away) vs 3.0/3.5 line; shot-based potential 6.56 and mutual opponent total 3.80. Home GL_5 2.50 accelerating, away GL_5 1.60, away conceded 2+ in 5/5 away, H2H 2/2 over. Raw score 85% capped at standard ceiling 82%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:00 |
Argentina Championship Women |
Boca Juniors Women |
- |
Belgrano Women |
Over 0.75 1st Half Goals |
65% |
Expected 1st-half total is 0.85 vs a 0.75 line: (0.50+0.40)/2 + (0.40+0.40)/2. First-half overs on 0.5+ goals: Boca 5/10, Belgrano 6/10, and Belgrano have conceded 4 of 6 goals in the first 30 minutes (66.7%). H2H is only two 1-0 games (neutral sample), so the small positive gap and Belgrano's early defensive fragility support the Over. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:15 |
Spain La Liga |
Athletic Bilbao |
- |
Atletico Madrid |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 3.35 vs the 2.5 line (Athletic 2.50 scored/1.10 conceded at home; Atletico 1.50 scored/1.60 conceded away). Athletic are 6/10 over 2.5 and Atletico 7/10 over 2.5, with mutual opponents averaging 2.8 goals; Atletico have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches (Man City 3-1, Man Utd 2-1, Villarreal 5-1) and 5.8 on-target conceded away. Raw score 91% capped at the standard ceiling of 82%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 14:30 |
Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
FC Dordrecht |
- |
AZ Reserves |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
80% |
FT expected total 3.75 vs 3.25 line (home 1.80 scored/2.10 conceded at home; away 2.10 scored/1.50 conceded away); mutual-opponents total 3.72 supports over. AZ Reserves conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away (Emmen 3, De Graafschap 2, Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 2, Willem II 3). Bookmaker mispricing GL_5 home 1.55 and away 1.50 aligns with Over; histories over 3.25 are 5/10 home and 4/10 away, keeping confidence at 80%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 15:00 |
Sweden 1.div Södra |
Utsiktens BK |
- |
Lunds BK |
Over 3.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected total 3.50 vs line 3.0 (Utsiktens home 1.00 scored/2.20 conceded; Lunds away 2.20 scored/1.60 conceded). Utsiktens non-push home over-3.0 record is 4/7 and Lunds away 5/8, mutual-opponent total 3.10 supports over, and the quality gap (Lunds 4th vs Utsiktens 16th) plus away bookmaker mispricing GL_5=2.15 favour Over. |
|
| 05-09-2026 15:00 |
Sweden Superettan |
Helsingborg |
- |
Sandvikens IF |
Over 9.5 Corners |
80% |
Expected corners 10.20 vs 9.5 line (gap +0.70); Helsingborg 7 of last 10 matches went over 9.5 corners and Sandvikens 8 of last 10 went over. Both H2H matches went over (12, 10), and Sandvikens concede 6.50 corners per away match. Confidence 80% = Base 50 + gap 7 + home history 8 + away history 10 + structural 5. |
|
| 05-09-2026 15:00 |
Hungary NB II |
Kozarmisleny SE |
- |
Mezokovesd Zsory |
Over 2.0/2.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected full-time total is 2.70 vs the 2.0/2.5 line (A=1.20, B=1.20, C=1.30, D=1.70), a +0.45-goal edge. Home matches are 8/10 over 2.5, away 6/10 saw 2+ goals, mutual-opponent total is 2.63 and match potential 4.96 supports the over. Last H2H finished 3-0 and away GL_5 of 1.65 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing; home has conceded 2+ goals in 5 straight matches. |
|
| 05-09-2026 15:00 |
Bulgaria First League |
Spartak Varna |
- |
CSKA Sofia |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Full-time Over 2.5: home A=1.20, away B=1.20, away C=2.00, home D=1.40 gives expected total 2.90 vs line 2.5 (+0.40 gap). Home 5/10 (50%) vs away 9/10 (90%) over 2.5, H2H 0-4, mutual_total 2.55, away c_avg_on_target 5.0, and home GL_5 1.75 (moderate, accelerating) all support Over. Score: 50 base +8 gap +10 away history +5 common opponents +3 likelihood +2.5 GL_5 home +5 structural = 83.5, capped at 82. |
|
| 05-09-2026 15:15 |
Italy Serie B |
Ascoli |
- |
Benevento |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 3.30 ((1.70+1.60)/2 + (2.10+1.20)/2) against a 2.25 line, a +1.05 gap. Ascoli are 7/10 over 2.25 in recent matches and Benevento 6/10 over, with mutual-opponents total 2.335 supporting Over and Benevento's GL_5 market pricing error at 2.05 (accelerating, strong). Raw confidence 90% capped at the standard 82% ceiling because H2H is empty and away history is only 60%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Czechia 2. Liga |
Opava |
- |
Dukla Praha |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is 3.45 (Opava 1.40 scored/1.90 conceded at home; Dukla 2.10 scored/1.50 conceded away) vs the 2.5 line. Opava's last 10 went over 2.5 in 6/10 and Dukla in 7/10, with Dukla conceding 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away and mutual opponents averaging 3.84 total goals. The 1st-half expected 1.50 vs line 1.0 is weaker (30%/40% over 1.0), so full-time Over 2.5 is the best bet; raw score 91 capped to 82 on standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Bulgaria First League |
Spartak Varna |
- |
CSKA Sofia |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 2.90 vs the 2.5 line ((1.2+1.2)/2 + (2.0+1.4)/2). CSKA Sofia are 9/10 recent matches over 2.5, Spartak Varna 5/10. H2H was 0-4, mutual-opponent total 2.55 clears 2.5, and home GL5 market pricing error is 1.75 moderate/accelerating; raw score 84% capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Czechia First League |
SK Artis Brno |
- |
Viktoria Plzen |
Over 3.0 Goals |
65% |
Expected FT total = (1.30+2.00)/2 + (2.20+1.70)/2 = 3.60 vs 3.0 line; shot-based potential 7.34. Over 3.0 history: home 30% (3/10), away 50% (5/10). Viktoria Plzen away GL_5 is 2.75 severe bookmaker mispricing, with 5 straight away games conceding 3, and the single H2H finished 4-2. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Slovakia Super Liga |
KFC Komarno |
- |
MFK Skalica |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total 3.35 (home 1.60 scored/1.80 conceded at home; away 1.60 scored/1.70 conceded away) vs line 2.5. Home are 8/10 over 2.5, away 7/10 over; H2H mixed 1/3 over. Away GL_5 2.45 vs GL_10 1.65 indicates market pricing error on Skalica games; raw confidence 85% capped to 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Malta Premier League |
Balzan FC |
- |
Birzebbuga |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total is 2.70 (home 1.30 scored + away 1.20 conceded / away 1.70 scored + home 1.20 conceded) vs line 2.5. Away Birzebbuga are 8 of 10 matches over 2.5, H2H is 3 of 4 overs (3-0, 3-3, 4-6), and mutual opponents average 4.62 total goals. Birzebbuga conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches (Swieqi 7, Balzan 3, Zurrieq 3, Floriana 2), a strong Over signal. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Norway Eliteserien |
SK Brann |
- |
Lillestrom |
Over 11 Corners |
70% |
Expected corners total 12.0 vs line 11.0: Brann average 6.2 corners at home/5.8 conceded, Lillestrom average 5.9 away/6.1 conceded. Lillestrom matches produced 12+ corners in 6 of last 10, and mutual opponents data shows high combined shot and dangerous-attack volume. Norway Eliteserien tempo and both sides needing points support sustained attacking pressure and corner upside. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Hungary NB II |
Gyirmot SE |
- |
Karcagi SE |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 3.05 vs 2.5 line (home avg scored 1.90 at home, conceded 1.60; away scored 1.30, conceded 1.30 away). Home 7/10 and away 6/10 over 2.5; mutual-opponent total 2.885 supports over; H2H empty. Bookmaker mispricing home GL_5 1.95 and away GL_5 2.30, both accelerating; raw score 94 capped at 82 (standard ceiling; away 60% misses elevated). |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Cyprus Division 1 |
Apollon Limassol |
- |
Anorthosis Famagusta |
Apollon Limassol -1 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Apollon sit 7th vs Anorthosis 12th and the venue-matched mutual-opponent set favours the home side across all five stats (goals net +0.5 vs -0.86; shots net +3.4 vs -4.4). Anorthosis have lost their last 5 Asian Handicap lines (0W-0V-5L), though Apollon's own recent -1 cover rate is only 1 of 5, giving a marginal 65% tier (2 of 3 AH signals). H2H margins are mixed on -1 (2-0 cover, 0-0 and 1-1 fail) but below the 75% veto threshold. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Bahrain Premier League |
Manama |
- |
Al-Riffa |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total is 3.70 goals (home scored 2.70/away conceded 1.10, away scored 2.00/home conceded 1.60) vs line 2.5; shot-based match potential also clears at ~7.0. Manama are 8/10 Over 2.5 and Al-Riffa 6/10; last H2H was 4-6; Al-Riffa conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away. Raw score 91 capped to 82 standard tier (home GL_5 0.95 and away GL_5 1.40 add no pricing-error edge; mutual opponents unavailable). |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Cyprus Division 1 |
Nea Salamis Famagusta |
- |
AEK Larnaca |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.75 (home 3.00 scored/1.40 conceded, away 1.60 scored/1.50 conceded) vs line 2.5, a +1.25 gap. Nea Salamis 7/10 over 2.5, AEK 6/10 over 2.5, H2H empty, mutual opponents total 3.84 supports Over, and bookmaker mispricing is severe/strong (home GL5 2.75, away GL5 1.85). Raw score 98 capped at standard 82% ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:00 |
Cyprus Division 1 |
Pafos FC |
- |
Olympiakos Nicosia |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.25 vs 2.75 (Pafos home 1.80 scored/1.30 conceded; Olympiakos away 1.60 scored/1.80 conceded). Olympiakos went over 2.75 in 7/10 (70%) and Pafos in 5/10 (50%), H2H 2 games split neutral; mutual-opponent total 2.83 supports Over; both sides show market pricing error GL_5 1.90/2.10 accelerating. Confidence: base 50% + gap 10% + away history 8% + common opponents 5% + GL_5 home 8% + GL_5 away 8% + form momentum 3% = 92% capped at 82%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:15 |
Wales Premier League |
T.N.S. |
- |
Barry Town |
Barry Town +1.75 Asian Handicap |
68% |
Barry Town have covered +1.75 in 9 of their last 10 matches (90%) and are 5/5 on the Asian Handicap in their last 5, while T.N.S. have covered -1.75 only 3/10. H2H supports the away side: Barry covered +1.75 in 3 of the last 4 meetings (0-1, 2-0, 1-0; only the 0-4 fails), and receiving 1.75 goals against a side only 2 points ahead of them in the table is the main value angle. Mutual-opponent data leans T.N.S., so this is a 2-of-3 AH signal and is capped at 68%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:30 |
Iceland Premier League |
Keflavik |
- |
Valur Reykjavik |
Over 11.5 Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners 13.15 (home avg 5.60, home conceded 7.10, away avg 5.30, away conceded 8.30) vs line 11.5. Keflavik are 6/10 over 11.5 corners and Valur are 7/10; H2H produced 17 corners. Valur away concede 8.30 corners per game and their mutual-opponent c_avg_dang_attacks is 74.9, signalling sustained pressure; goal-line pricing error is elevated (home 1.55, away 1.75) but the corner edge drives this pick. Raw score 88 capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:30 |
Spain La Liga |
Rayo Vallecano |
- |
Racing Santander |
Over 2.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected FT total is 3.15 (home 1.30 scored/1.80 conceded, away 1.50/1.70) vs line 2.5, a gap of +0.65; each side is 6/10 over 2.5 in last 10 and mutual-opponent total 2.83 clears the line. Confidence: 50% base +10% gap +5% home history +5% away history +5% common opponents +3% likelihood +3% form momentum = 81%; no strong bookmaker mispricing signal (GL_5 1.40/1.10). |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:30 |
England National League |
Boreham Wood |
- |
Carlisle |
|
70% |
Boreham Wood are 4W-1V-0L on the Asian handicap across their last 5 (8 of 10 matches covered -0.75), while Carlisle are 2W-0V-3L. Against common opponents Boreham Wood are 7W-2D-1L with +1.3 goal net (2.6 GF vs 1.3 GA), far superior to Carlisle's 4W-1D-4L and -0.23 net, and the last two H2H margins (2-1 away, 2-0 home) both cover -0.75. |
|
| 05-09-2026 16:45 |
Netherlands Eredivisie |
FC Utrecht |
- |
Go Ahead Eagles |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total 3.90 vs line 3.0 (A=1.50, B=1.90, C=2.20, D=2.20). Home matches over/push 7/10 at 3.0, away 6/10 over; H2H neutral (2-0, 2-2). Go Ahead conceded 2+ in 5 straight away; mutual-opponent total 3.18; home GL_5 2.25 and away GL_5 1.75 both align with Over. Full-time gap +0.90 is stronger than 1st half gap +0.40 (1.65 vs 1.25). |
|
| 05-09-2026 17:00 |
Belgium Super League Women |
Anderlecht Women |
- |
Genk Women |
Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
Expected 1st-half total = (0.80+0.60)/2 + (0.30+0.60)/2 = 1.15, well below the 1.5 line. Home Anderlecht home first halves stayed under 1.5 in 4 of 6 (67%), away Genk away first halves stayed under in 3 of 3 (100%), with Genk averaging just 0.30 HT away goals and Anderlecht 0.80 HT home goals; H2H HT data absent and no strong market pricing error for either side. Scoring: Base 50% + gap 5% + home HT history 5% + away HT history 10% + low HT scorers structural 5% = 75%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 17:00 |
Portugal Primeira Liga |
Maritimo |
- |
Benfica |
Over 3 Goals |
69% |
Expected FT total = (1.30+1.00)/2 + (3.50+1.30)/2 = 3.55 vs line 3.0. Benfica's last 10 matches went over 3.0 in 70% and they average 3.50 goals scored away, while Maritimo's overall last 10 only 30% over 3.0; H2H is empty. Confidence: Base 50 + gap 10 + away history 8 + H2H 0 + common opponents -5 + likelihood 3 + GL_5 no edge 0 + form momentum 3 = 69%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 17:00 |
Hungary NB II |
Tiszakecske FC |
- |
Szentlorinc SE |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is (1.70+1.10)/2 + (1.60+2.10)/2 = 3.25 against a 2.5 line. Tiszakecske are 7 of 10 recent matches Over 2.5 (70%) and Szentlorinc are 5 of 10 (50%), while Szentlorinc have conceded 2+ goals in five straight away matches. Both teams' GL_5 bookmaker mispricing exceeds 1.8 (2.00 home, 2.05 away) and is accelerating in the Over direction. |
|
| 05-09-2026 17:00 |
CAF Champions League |
Gaborone United |
- |
Young Africans |
Over 2.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total is 3.35 (home scored 2.40 at home, away conceded 0.50 away, away scored 2.70, home conceded 1.10) vs line 2.0, a 1.35-goal gap. Home are 7/10 over 2.0, away 7/10 over 2.0 with three pushes; H2H is empty and mutual opponents are neutral. Market pricing error is mild (GL_5 home 1.30, away 1.40) with no added boost; raw score 84 capped to 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 17:00 |
Portugal Primeira Liga |
Maritimo |
- |
Benfica |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals |
65% |
Expected first-half total is 1.60 (Maritimo 0.60 scored/0.70 conceded at home, Benfica 1.60 scored/0.30 conceded away) vs line 1.25. Maritimo's last 10 matches went over 1.25 first-half goals in 6/10, while Benfica averages 4.20 first-half shots on target away. Benfica's clear road quality edge against a Maritimo side conceding 0.70 first-half goals at home creates early scoring pressure. |
|
| 05-09-2026 18:00 |
Netherlands Eredivisie |
Ajax |
- |
PSV |
Over 3.5/4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total = (3.10+1.40)/2 + (3.00+1.30)/2 = 4.40 vs line 3.5/4.0. Ajax home history 8/10 over 3.5, PSV 7/10 over 3.5; H2H both 2-2 draws (4 goals). Ajax GL_5 2.00 strong bookmaker mispricing, PSV GL_5 1.40 mild, both accelerating; scoring breakdown 50+10+10+8+0-5+3+8+0+3 = 87, capped at 82. |
|
| 05-09-2026 18:30 |
Malta Premier League |
Marsaxlokk FC |
- |
Mosta FC |
Over 2.25 Goals (Full-Time) |
66% |
Expected total is 2.40 vs line 2.25 (A=1.20, B=1.20, C=1.20, D=1.20; mutual-opponents total 3.30). Mosta conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (Hibernians 2-0, Gzira 2-1, Naxxar 5-0) and allow 5.4 shots on target per away. Confidence: base 50% + gap 3% + common opponents 5% + likelihood 3% + away defensive fragility 5% = 66%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 19:00 |
Argentina Nacional B |
Club Atletico Temperley |
- |
CA Colegiales |
Over 1.75 Goals |
78% |
Expected full-time goals 2.30 (home 1.70 scored/0.70 conceded at home, away 1.30 scored/0.90 conceded away) vs line 1.75; home are over 1.75 in 7/10 and away in 6/10 recent matches, with H2H 1-1 and mutual-opponent total 2.22 also clearing the line. Away side has scored in just 1 of their last 5 away games, so confidence is tempered to 78%. |
|
| 05-09-2026 19:00 |
Scotland Premiership |
St Mirren |
- |
Celtic |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.90 vs a 1.25 line (+0.65 gap): St Mirren home HT avg 1.20 scored/0.70 conceded, Celtic away HT avg 1.60 scored/0.30 conceded. St Mirren have gone over 1.5 HT goals in 6 of their last 10 (60%), Celtic in 8 of their last 10 away (80%). St Mirren's GL_5 bookmaker mispricing is 2.10, supporting the Over direction; raw score capped at the standard 82% ceiling. |
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| 05-09-2026 19:00 |
Netherlands Eredivisie |
Willem II |
- |
Excelsior |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.55 (Willem II 1.50 scored/1.60 conceded at home; Excelsior 2.70 scored/1.30 conceded away) vs line 2.75; 70% of Willem II matches (7/10) and 90% of Excelsior matches (9/10) went over, H2H empty. Mutual-opponent total 3.7 and shot-based potential 6.36 also support Over. Scoring: base 50% + gap 15% + home history 8% + away history 10% + H2H 0% + common opponents 5% + likelihood 3% + market pricing error 0% (home 1.40 mild) + structural 0% = 91% raw, capped at 82% standard ceiling (H2H absent). |
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| 05-09-2026 20:00 |
Argentina Nacional B |
Colon |
- |
Deportivo Moron |
Over 1.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.55 goals (Colon 1.60 scored/0.70 conceded at home; Deportivo Moron 1.70 scored/1.10 conceded away) against a 1.75 line. Colon have gone over 1.75 in 7 of 10 recent matches and Moron in 8 of 10; mutual opponents total of 2.20 also supports the over, while Moron conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games and have a GL_5 mispricing of 1.65. H2H is split 2-0 and 0-0 across two meetings, treated as neutral. |
|
| 05-09-2026 20:00 |
Canada Premier League |
Atletico Ottawa |
- |
Pacific FC (CA) |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 3.90 (home 2.20 scored, away 2.40 conceded; away 1.40 scored, home 1.80 conceded) vs 3.25 line. Atletico home over 3.25 in 7/10 and H2H over in 2/3 (3-2, 2-2); Pacific away have conceded 2+ in their last five away matches. Raw score 91 capped at 82 standard (away 40% over blocks elevated ceiling); away GL_5 1.65 moderate bookmaker mispricing supports over. |
|
| 05-09-2026 20:30 |
Dominica Premier League |
Promex Harlem United SC |
- |
Middleham United FC |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
FT Over 3.5: expected total 4.25 (home 1.5 scored/2.5 conceded, away 2.1 scored/2.4 conceded) vs 3.5 line; home overs 6/10, away overs 7/10. HT Over 1.5 skipped (home 30%, away 50%). H2H empty; mutual opponents total 4.2 supports Over; home GL_5 market pricing error 1.80 and away conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away. Raw 88% (50+15 gap+8 away history+5 common opp+5 GL_5+5 structural; home 60% and likelihood excluded under stacking discipline) capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 21:00 |
Uruguay Clausura |
Deportivo Maldonado |
- |
Montevideo Wanderers |
|
67% |
Wanderers are 5th in Clausura on 7 points (Maldonado 9th on 5) and have covered +0.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%). Mutual opponents lean Maldonado (home goals net +0.8 vs away -0.86; W-D-L 6-3-1 vs 3-1-3), so only two of three AH signals support; H2H was 1-1 and 0-0, giving no losses for Wanderers. |
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| 05-09-2026 21:00 |
Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Deportivo Mixco |
- |
CSD Comunicaciones |
Over 2.25 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total is 2.95 (Mixco home 1.6 scored/1.7 conceded; Comunicaciones away 1.0 scored/1.6 conceded) vs a 2.0,2.5 line, and mutual-opponent total is 2.57. Mixco have scored 2+ in three straight home games while Comunicaciones conceded 2+ in four of their last five away, and GL_5 mispricing is high (home 2.00, away 1.70) aligned Over. H2H is mixed (1-0, 2-2, 0-1) and raw score 82 is capped at the standard 82 ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 22:00 |
Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
Deportivo Merlo |
- |
Defensores Unidos |
Deportivo Merlo -0.25 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Venue-matched mutual opponents strongly favour Deportivo Merlo: 5/5 stat advantages, 4W-3D-3L vs Defensores Unidos' 0W-2D-8L, and the hosts sit 14th (39 pts) vs 19th (33 pts). Standings gap and mutual-opponent edge give 2 of 3 AH signals; recent AH form is the weak point (1-4 last 5), so confidence is capped at the 65-69 B6 tier. Full-time goal line was skipped (expected 2.05 vs 2.25) and corners line was unavailable. |
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| 05-09-2026 22:30 |
Dominica Premier League |
Pointe Michel FC |
- |
Portsmouth Bombers |
Over 3.5,4.0 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 6.05 (home 2.90 scored/4.10 conceded, away 2.40 scored/2.70 conceded) vs 3.5/4.0 line. Home are 10/10 over 3.5 and away 7/10, H2H was 6-2, and mutual opponents average 5.00 goals/match. GL_5 home 2.35 and away 2.10 show severe bookmaker mispricing, and away have conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away; raw score 104% capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-09-2026 23:15 |
Panama LPF |
CD Universitario |
- |
Sporting San Miguelito |
Over 2.0 Goals |
65% |
Expected FT total is 2.50 ((1.20+1.20)/2 + (1.00+1.60)/2) versus the 2.0 line, a +0.50 gap. Mutual-opponent total is 2.64 against shared opposition; CD Universitario are 5/10 over 2.0, Sporting San Miguelito 4/10, with H2H 1-1 and 0-0. Market pricing error is only mild (home GL_5 1.15, away 1.30). |
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| 05-09-2026 23:15 |
Honduras Liga Nacional |
CA Independiente Siguatepeque |
- |
Motagua |
Motagua -0.5 Asian Handicap |
66% |
Motagua sit 4th (9 pts) vs 8th (5 pts) and win the mutual-opponent comparison 4-of-5 stats (goals NET +1.0 vs +0.5, shots +5.5 vs +1.5, on-target +3.5 vs +2.5, dangerous attacks +1.0 vs -32.0). Motagua's recent AH record is 3W-0V-2L vs Independiente's 2W-2V-1L. Standings and mutual-opponent signals support the away side; recent margin cover (60%) is just below the 65% line, so this qualifies at the 65-69 tier. |
|
| 05-09-2026 23:30 |
USA USL Championship |
Tampa Bay Rowdies |
- |
Brooklyn FC |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals |
68% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.45 goals ((0.60+0.90)/2 + (0.60+0.80)/2) against a 1.25 line. Brooklyn's 1st halves have gone over 1.25 in 6 of 10 matches, and the sole H2H meeting was 2-0 to Tampa at half-time. Tampa sit 1st vs Brooklyn 12th, and home market pricing error of 1.55 supports the over direction. |
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