| 05-09 16:00 |
Balzan FC
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4.60 +2.10 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.40 + 1.40 + 3.60 + 1.80) / 2 = 4.60 Error: 4.60 - Goal line 2.50 = +2.10 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
302 410 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.40 | 1.40 3.60 | 1.80 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
4.25 | 3.71 1.94 | 2.67 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
10.20 | 5.20 7.00 | 4.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.00 | 2.40 3.40 | 1.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
60.20 | 35.60 47.40 | 39.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 05-09 18:30 |
Marsaxlokk FC
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+0.73 +0.23 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 7.84 Domicile: 7.84 / ((3.71 + 5.50) / 2) = 1.70 Extérieure: 7.84 / ((10.00 + 6.17) / 2) = 0.97 Diff: 1.70 - 0.97 = +0.73 Error: +0.73 + AH line -0.50 = +0.23 |
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3.20 +0.95 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.40 + 0.60 + 1.20 + 3.20) / 2 = 3.20 Error: 3.20 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.95 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
410 104 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.40 | 0.60 1.20 | 3.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
3.71 | 10.00 6.17 | 5.50 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
5.20 | 6.00 7.40 | 17.60 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
2.00 | 2.00 2.00 | 7.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
29.60 | 36.80 41.00 | 69.40 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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