| 04-09-2026 09:30 |
Australia New South Wales League 1 |
Parramatta Eagles |
- |
Prospect United |
Over 3.0 Goals |
71% |
Expected FT total is 3.25 (home 2.00 scored/1.60 conceded at home; away 1.40 scored/1.50 conceded away) vs line 3.0. Home are 6/10 over 3.0 (plus 1 push) and away are only 4/10 under with 5/10 pushing on exactly 3, so unders are not dominant. Away defensive fragility (4 of last 5 away conceded 2+), home form surge (2+ goals in last 3 home), and home GL_5 1.70 moderate bookmaker mispricing support Over; scoring: Base 50 + gap 5 + home history 5 + GL_5 3 + away fragility 5 + form surge 3 = 71. |
|
| 04-09-2026 10:00 |
Australia SA Premier League Women |
Salisbury Inter Women |
- |
West Adelaide Women |
|
68% |
West Adelaide cleared -0.25 in 8 of their last 10 (80%), mutual opponents give them a 5-0 stat edge (goals NET 4.00 vs 2.50), and H2H is 2-1 in their favour. FT Over 3.0 was vetoed by H2H totals of 1, 3 and 3, and HT Over 1.25 had only 37.5% team histories. No corner line was offered. |
|
| 04-09-2026 10:30 |
South Korea K League 2 |
Paju Frontier FC |
- |
Daegu FC |
Daegu FC -1 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Daegu are 3rd (42 pts) vs Paju 12th (25 pts), and against shared opponents Daegu posted +1.33 goals net (2.50 scored vs 1.17 conceded) with 3W 3D 0L, while Paju managed just 0.50 goals per game. The main weakness is Daegu's recent -1 handicap cover rate: only 2 wins in their last 10 matches (2W 3P 5L), so the strongest basis is the standings plus mutual-opponent dominance and confidence is capped at 65%. |
|
| 04-09-2026 10:30 |
South Korea K League 2 |
Chungbuk Cheongju |
- |
Seoul E-Land FC |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
1st-half expected goals = 0.90 (home 0.40 scored/0.50 conceded at home, away 0.40 scored/0.50 conceded away) vs 1.25 line, a 0.35 gap to Under. Both teams stayed under 1.25 first-half goals in 7/10 recent matches (70% each); Seoul E-Land failed to score in the first half in 4 of their last 5 away matches, reinforcing the low-scoring HT structure. H2H first-half data is thin but not contradictory. |
|
| 04-09-2026 11:00 |
England Development League 2 |
Sheffield Wed U21 |
- |
Wigan U21 |
Over 1.5 Goals - 1st Half |
73% |
1H expected total is 1.90 (home 1.00 scored + 0.40 conceded, away 0.80 scored + 1.60 conceded) vs the 1.5 line, a +0.40 gap. Sheffield Wed's home 1H matches went over 1.5 in 3 of 5, and Wigan's away 1H matches went over in 4 of 4. H2H HT sample is only 1 match (1 total goal) so neutral; Wigan's away 1H defensive weakness and the strong away 1H over record support the Over. |
|
| 04-09-2026 12:00 |
Algeria Division 2 |
GC Mascara |
- |
RC Arba |
Over 2.0 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 2.55 vs line 2.0 (GC Mascara home 1.60 scored/1.20 conceded, RC Arba away 1.10 scored/1.20 conceded). GC Mascara home over 2.0 in 3 of 5 (1 push), RC Arba away in 2 of 4, last H2H 2-1, mutual opponents GC Mascara 1.5 gf/0.6 ga vs RC Arba 0.5 gf/1.5 ga (combined 2.05). Home is 8W-1D-1L at home (20-6) vs away 1W-0D-9L (5-16), and home GL_5 bookmaker mispricing 1.70 is accelerating. |
|
| 04-09-2026 13:00 |
Azerbaijan Division 1 |
Energetik Mingechevir |
- |
Zaqatala |
Energetik Mingechevir -1.5 Asian Handicap |
68% |
Home have covered -1.5 in 4 of last 5 home matches (4-1 Sabail, 7-1 Zaqatala, 5-2 Safa, 2-0 Moik), and mutual opponents show clear home superiority (home avg goals 2.2 vs 1.2 conceded; away 0.86 vs 1.71 conceded). Zaqatala are winless in 10 away (0W 7L, 19 conceded) and lost the last H2H 7-1, while goal-line markets offered no real edge (FT expected 3.05 vs line 3.0; HT 1.25 vs 1.25). |
|
| 04-09-2026 13:45 |
UAE Pro League |
Al Ittihad Kalba |
- |
Al Ain SCC |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals |
82% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.75 (Kalba 0.70 scored/0.80 conceded at home HT; Al Ain 1.50 scored/0.50 conceded away HT) vs a 1.25 split line, a +0.50 gap. Both teams cleared 1.25 in 7 of their last 10 first halves (70% each), and Al Ain sits 3rd with 3 wins while Kalba is 11th. Raw score 83.5 capped at standard ceiling 82 (base 50 + gap 10 + home HT history 8 + away HT history 8 + quality gap 5 + away GL_5 half 2.5). |
|
| 04-09-2026 14:00 |
Uzbekistan PFL |
Navbahor Namangan |
- |
Lokomotiv Tashkent |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Navbahor home scored/conceded 1.90/1.00 and Lokomotiv away scored/conceded 2.40/1.30, giving expected total (1.90+1.30)/2 + (2.40+1.00)/2 = 3.30 against the 2.5 line (+0.80). Lokomotiv are 8/10 over 2.5 (80%) and conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches (Kokand 2-1, Buxoro 2-1, AGMK 2-1); Navbahor home overs are only 3/7, so the raw 89% score is capped at the standard 82% tier. Home GL_5 bookmaker mispricing is 1.85 and accelerating. |
|
| 04-09-2026 14:00 |
Qatar Stars League |
Al-Shamal SC |
- |
Al-Shahaniya SC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected total 3.70 (A=1.9, B=1.7, C=1.4, D=2.4) vs line 3.0; Al-Shamal's last five matches all exceeded 3.0 (15,4,4,10,5 goals), and Al-Shahaniya have lost 10 straight away with 29 conceded, conceding 2+ in 4 of last 5 away. H2H aggregate is 3 of 4 under 3.0, but the sole H2H at this venue was a 4-0 over, and home GL_5 2.65 severe market mispricing supports the Over. Scoring: Base 50% + gap 14% + home history 10% + away history 0% + H2H -10% + common opponents +5% + likelihood 0% + GL_5 home +6% + GL_5 away 0% + away defensive fragility +5% = 80%, within standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 14:00 |
Panama Liga Prom |
Plaza Amador Reserves |
- |
Champions FC Academy |
Over 3.5 Goals |
70% |
Expected total is 3.55 (home 1.60 scored/1.80 conceded at home; away 1.30 scored/2.40 conceded away) vs a 3.5 line, while shot-based potential is 6.32 and mutual opponents averaged 4.47 total goals. Away side concedes 5.0 shots on target per away game and has severe market pricing error (GL_5 2.55, accelerating); H2H finished 3-4 with 7 goals. |
|
| 04-09-2026 15:00 |
Estonia Esiliiga |
FC Levadia Tallinn U21 |
- |
FC Flora Tallinn II |
FC Levadia Tallinn U21 +0.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Levadia U21 have covered the +0.25 Asian Handicap in 7 of their last 10 matches (70%), including a 4-0 away win over Flora II in the latest H2H. Mutual-opponents numbers strongly favour the home side: 4-1 stat advantage and goals NET +0.3 vs Flora II's -0.14, despite Flora II's higher league position (44 vs 34 points). Flora II have only covered -0.25 in 4 of their last 10 matches (40%), so the value sits with the home underdog. |
|
| 04-09-2026 15:00 |
Poland III Liga |
Pelikan Lowicz |
- |
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
Expected 1st-half total is (0.50+0.80)/2 + (0.50+0.50)/2 = 1.15 vs line 1.25. Pelikan's recent HT matches are 7/9 under 1.25 and Swit 6/10 under, with Swit failing to score in the first half in all 5 recent away games; the only H2H was 1-0 at half-time. Scoring: 50 base +2 gap +8 home +5 away +5 low-1H +5 away-scoreless = 75%. |
|
| 04-09-2026 15:00 |
Slovenia 2. SNL |
NK Vrhnika |
- |
NK Rudar Velenje |
Over 2.25 Goals |
78% |
Expected full-time total (1.90+1.30)/2 + (2.10+1.40)/2 = 3.35 vs 2.25 line. Home 5/8 recent matches over 2.25, away 5/10; away conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away (0-2 Ilirija, 0-2 Beltinci, 0-2 Triglav, 0-2 Bravo) and home GL_5 1.55 moderate bookmaker mispricing supports over. Mutual-opponent total of 1.5 is a minor contradiction, but overall score 78%. |
|
| 04-09-2026 15:05 |
UAE Division 1 |
Gulf United FC |
- |
Al Dhaid |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
66% |
FT Goal Line Over: expected total 3.05 (home 1.30 scored, away 1.30 conceded, away 1.40 scored, home 2.10 conceded) vs line 2.75. Home 6/10 and away 5/10 recent matches went over 2.75; H2H 2/3 over; top-4 vs bottom-4 quality gap (Al Dhaid 3rd, Gulf United 13th) supports goals. Confidence: Base 50 +5 gap +5 home history +0 away history +5 H2H -5 mutual (2.45 total) -3 likelihood (45% over 2.5) +4 home bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 2.25) +5 structural quality gap = 66%. 1H goal line (expected 1.30) and corner lines not offered. |
|
| 04-09-2026 15:30 |
Lithuania 1 Lyga |
FK BE1 |
- |
FK Kauno Zalgiris II |
Under 1.25 First Half Goals |
75% |
Expected HT total is 1.00 (home 0.70 scored, 0.30 conceded; away 0.40 scored, 0.60 conceded) versus the 1.25 line. Both teams went under 1.25 first-half goals in 8 of 10 recent matches, and the away side failed to score in the first half in 7 of 10. GL_5 is below 1.0 for both teams, so no market pricing error edge. |
|
| 04-09-2026 15:30 |
Finland Kakkonen Group B |
GrIFK |
- |
EBK |
Over 3.5 Goals |
77% |
Expected total 3.85 (home 1.50 scored/1.80 conceded at home; away 1.30 scored/3.10 conceded away) vs 3.50 line. Home 4/10 and away 6/10 last matches over 3.5; EBK conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away; H2H two meetings both under 3.5 but small sample. Mutual-opponent total 3.57 clears line and EBK GL_5 2.20 bookmaker mispricing supports Over. |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:00 |
Lithuania 1 Lyga |
Lietava Jonava |
- |
DFK Dainava |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Full-time expected total = (1.20+0.90)/2 + (1.60+1.20)/2 = 2.45, within 0.05 of the 2.5 line, and shot-based match potential is 5.48 with mutual-opponent total 3.46, both Over supports. Home have gone Over 2.5 in 6/10 matches (60%) and away 5/10 (50%), with the only H2H finishing 3-0, and Dainava conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches. Home GL_5 0.75 is well-calibrated and away GL_5 1.50 is moderate but direction ambiguous, so confidence is 65%. |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:00 |
Czechia 2. Liga |
FC Sellier & Bellot Vlašim |
- |
Trinec |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals |
69% |
First-half expected total is 1.75 (Vlašim HT home scored 1.00/conceded 0.60; Trinec HT away scored 1.00/conceded 0.90) vs a 1.25 line, a 0.50-goal edge. Vlašim's last 10 matches had 6 with 2+ first-half goals (60%), Trinec had 5 of 10 (50%), and there is no H2H data to contradict. Trinec's GL_5 of 2.10 (accelerating vs GL_10 1.88) signals bookmaker mispricing in the same Over direction. |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:00 |
Georgia Erovnuli Liga |
FC Rustavi |
- |
Dinamo Batumi |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total = (1.60+1.10)/2 + (2.60+0.80)/2 = 3.05 vs 2.5 line (shot-based match potential 6.28 also clears); home 6/10 and away 8/10 recent matches went over 2.5, mutual-opponent total 2.82 supports over, away market pricing error GL_5 1.60 (moderate, partial edge). Scoring: 50% base +10% gap +5% home history +10% away history +0% H2H (2 matches neutral) +5% mutual opponents +0% likelihood +0% home market pricing error +2.5% away market pricing error +0% structural = 82.5% capped at 82% standard ceiling (home history 60%, not 70%, so elevated tier not met). |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:00 |
Poland I Liga |
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki |
- |
Warta Poznan |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total = (1.50+2.40)/2 + (1.60+1.30)/2 = 3.40 vs 2.75 line (gap +0.65). Pogon's last 10 are 5/10 over 2.75 and Warta's last 10 are 9/10 over 2.75, with no H2H data. Mutual opponents total 3.50 supports over and Warta conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (2-1 Miedz, 3-1 Odra, 4-3 Polonia Bytom); raw score 86% capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:00 |
Austria Landesliga |
Red Star Penzing |
- |
Slovan HAC |
Red Star Penzing -1.0 Asian Handicap |
68% |
Red Star are 3rd (6pts) vs Slovan HAC 10th (1pt) and won the last two H2Hs 3-0 home and 3-1 away, both covering -1. Mutual opponents favour Red Star 4-1 across stats (goals net +0.3 vs -0.5, shots net +5.2 vs -5.9, dangerous attacks net +15.5 vs -13.7), and Red Star's AH record is 4W-1L last 5. Margin cover at exactly -1 is the weak leg (3 of last 5 by 2+), capping confidence at 68%. |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:00 |
Cyprus Division 1 |
Omonia 29is Maiou |
- |
APK Karmotissa |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total is 3.85 vs a 2.5 line (home scored 2.80, away conceded 1.50, away scored 2.20, home conceded 1.20). Over 2.5 hit 6/9 home matches (67%) and 6/8 away matches (75%); mutual opponents total averaged 3.40, and APK Karmotissa conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away matches with a GL_5 of 1.90 signalling strong bookmaker mispricing. Raw score 88% capped to standard 82% ceiling (elevated tier unmet: H2H only 2 matches, home history under 70%). |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:00 |
Armenia Premier League |
FC Noah |
- |
Gandzasar Kapan |
FC Noah -2.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
FC Noah are 1st (15 pts) vs 9th-placed Gandzasar (3 pts), and mutual opponents show Noah 6W-4D-0L with +1.7 net goals per game vs Gandzasar 1W-1D-5L with -1.0. H2H also favours Noah strongly: 4-1 and 3-0 wins in the last two meetings. The main risk is Noah's recent margin cover rate (only 2 of last 10 wins by 3+), but standings, shared-opponent data and H2H support the -2.25 handicap. |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:00 |
Finland Kakkonen Group B |
PPJ |
- |
Kiffen |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
HT expected total 1.55 (PPJ 0.70 scored/1.00 conceded at home; Kiffen 1.20 scored/0.20 conceded away) vs line 1.5. PPJ home matches are 60% over 1.5 first half, and Kiffen GL_5 2.10 / PPJ 1.70 bookmaker mispricing plus top-vs-bottom quality gap support the over. Score: 50 base + 5 home HT history + 5 quality gap + 5 GL_5 PPJ + 8 GL_5 Kiffen = 73 (gap 0, away HT history 0, H2H HT 0). |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:00 |
Algeria Division 1 |
USM Khenchela |
- |
USM Alger |
Over 2.0 Goals |
79% |
Expected FT total is 3.75 vs the 2.0 line (Khenchela home 1.60 scored/1.40 conceded; USM Alger away 2.40 scored/2.10 conceded). Khenchela are 7 of 9 over 2.0 and USM Alger are 5 of 10, with the last H2H ending 2-1; USM Alger conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches and carry a 1.50 GL_5 bookmaker mispricing signal supporting the Over. |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:15 |
Qatar Stars League |
Lusail |
- |
Al-Wakrah SC |
Over 3.0/3.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected total 3.65 (Lusail home 1.8 scored/1.7 conceded; Al-Wakrah away 2.0 scored/1.8 conceded) vs line 3.0/3.5. Mutual opponents total 3.71 and shot-based match potential 7.28 support Over; Al-Wakrah have gone over this line in 6 of 10 recent matches (60%), though Lusail are only 3 of 7 over. |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:30 |
Faroe Islands Div 1 |
IF Fuglafjordur |
- |
FC Hoyvik |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.60 (home 2.40 scored/2.50 conceded at home; away 1.60 scored/2.70 conceded away) vs 3.5 line; home 7/10 (70%) and away 6/9 (67%) over 3.5. H2H split (1-2, 2-4), common opponents mutual total 6.0, away conceded 2+ in 3 of last 4 away, home GL_5 2.30 strong bookmaker mispricing. Raw 92% capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 16:30 |
Germany Bundesliga II |
Arminia Bielefeld |
- |
St Pauli |
Over 3.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected full-time total 3.90 (Bielefeld home 2.40 scored/1.40 conceded; St Pauli away 2.20 scored/1.80 conceded) vs line 3.0, gap +0.90. St Pauli conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away and 6/10 away matches went over 3.0, while Bielefeld have scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home games. Home history 50% over 3.0 (with 3 pushes), H2H empty, mutual opponents insufficient, GL_5 0.90/0.95 gives no pricing-error boost. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
Gamle Oslo |
- |
Heming |
Gamle Oslo -1.0 Asian Handicap |
70% |
Gamle Oslo are 2nd (home 6-1-2, 39:18) and their last 5 AH record is 5-0-0, with 4 of last 5 margins covering -1 by winning by 2+ goals. Against shared opponents they hold a 4-of-5 stats edge and a goals NET of +2.50 vs Heming's +1.28, while standings also favor the home side. Goal-line Over was rejected because Heming's recent matches contradict the Over (2 of 10 at 4+ totals), so Asian Handicap home -1 is the strongest qualifying market. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
Sweden 1.div Södra |
FC Rosengård 1917 |
- |
Laholms FK |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals |
82% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.90 vs a 1.25 line (home 1.10 scored/0.80 conceded HT; away 0.90 scored/1.00 conceded HT). Laholm's last 10 matches produced 6 over 1.25 first-half goals, and H2H last meeting was 1-3. Home GL_5 2.45 and away GL_5 1.65 both point to bookmaker mispricing on the Over; raw score capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
Landvetter IS |
- |
IK Kongahälla |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.45 vs the 1.25 line (home 0.90 scored / 0.50 conceded HT; away 0.70 scored / 0.80 conceded). Landvetter are top hosting 12th-placed Kongahälla and concede 71% of goals in the first 30 minutes, supporting an early-goal pattern. Away GL_5 is 1.80 with accelerating bookmaker mispricing, giving Over 1.25 value. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
Finland Kolmonen |
Ponnistus |
- |
JäPS/47 |
Over 3.5/4.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected FT total 3.70 (home 2.10 scored/1.40 conceded; away 2.70 scored/1.20 conceded) vs a 3.75 split line; Ponnistus games produced 4+ goals in 5/8 (63%) and JäPS 8/10 (80%). Away JäPS scores 2.70 away and concedes 5.20 shots on target, a structural Over signal; 1H expected 1.80 vs 1.50 but both team HT over histories are only 50%, so full-time Over is stronger. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
Denmark Division 2 |
B93 Copenhagen |
- |
Naestved |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.90 vs 3.0 line (home scored/conceded 2.30/2.40, away 1.50/1.60) with shot-based potential 6.69 also supporting Over. Home are Over 3.0 in 7 of 10 matches (2 pushes), Naestved conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away games, and mutual-opponent total 3.25 clears the line. Confidence: Base 50 + gap 15 + home history 8 + away 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + GL5 0 + structural away fragility 5 = 86, capped at 82 standard ceiling because away history is not 70%+; market pricing error GL5 home/away 1.0/0.9 gives no extra edge. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
Austria Regionalliga Ost |
SV Gloggnitz |
- |
FC Marchfeld Donauauen |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
79% |
Expected full-time total = (1.20+1.20)/2 + (2.70+2.10)/2 = 3.60 vs line 3.25. FC Marchfeld away are 7/10 over 3.25 (70%) and scored 2+ in four of their last five away, while Gloggnitz concede 2.10 per home game. H2H is 2 of 3 over (4-2, 4-2, 1-1) and away GL_5 bookmaker mispricing is 1.80 with accelerating trend. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
Austria Landesliga |
SV Lebring |
- |
TUS Bad Waltersdorf |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.10 vs 3.5 line (home 1.80 scored, 3.50 conceded at home; away 1.40 scored, 1.50 conceded away); 8/10 home matches over 3.5 and mutual-opponent total 4.33, shot-based match potential 7.32 support Over. Scoring: base 50 + gap from line 12 + home history 10 + away history 0 + common opponents 5 + GL_5 home 8 + GL_5 away 8 = 93 → capped 82 (away 3/10 over excluded). |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
France Ligue 1 |
Lyon |
- |
Auxerre |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected goals: (1.7+1.8)/2+(2.0+1.8)/2=3.65 vs 2.75 line; Lyon 7/10 (70%) and Auxerre 7/10 (70%) recent matches over 2.5. H2H split 3-2 and 0-0 (2 matches, neutral); mutual opponents total 3.54 and Lyon 4-1 stat edge support Over; Auxerre GL5 1.70 moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned plus Lyon 4th vs Auxerre 18th quality gap. Raw 91 (base 50, gap +15, home +8, away +8, common opp +5, quality gap +5) capped at 82 standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
Austria Regionalliga West |
FC Kufstein |
- |
FC Lauterach |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals 4.40 ((1.60+3.10)/2 + (1.80+2.30)/2) vs line 3.5. Away Lauterach are over 3.5 in 8 of last 10 (80%), home 50%; H2H one match 6-2 over and away conceded 2+ in each of last 3 away, mutual-opponent goal total 3.59 clears 3.5. GL_5 bookmaker mispricing is 2.05 home/2.55 away both accelerating; raw score capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:00 |
Germany 3. Liga |
FC Ingolstadt |
- |
Alemannia Aachen |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
First-half expected total is (1.30+0.70)/2 + (1.00+0.70)/2 = 1.85, a +0.60 gap over the 1.25 line. Ingolstadt's recent first halves went Over 1.25 in 6 of 10 (60%), while Aachen went Over in 4 of 10 (40%); full-time Over 3.0 was skipped because both sides were only 40% Over 3.0. Scoring: Base 50 + gap 10 + home HT history 5 + away HT history 0 + H2H HT 0 + structural 0 + away market pricing error 5 (GL_5 1.60 moderate, aligning with over) = 70%. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:30 |
Austria Regionalliga Ost |
Wiener Sportclub |
- |
SR Fach-Donaufeld |
Over 3.0 Goals |
76% |
Full-time expected total = (2.8+2.2)/2 + (1.0+1.1)/2 = 3.55 vs line 3.0, and mutual opponents total is 3.2; away market pricing error is 1.50 (moderate) aligning with over. Home have scored 2+ in three straight home games, while SR Fach-Donaufeld have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (Admira 2, Rapid Vienna II 6, Marchfeld 2). H2H is only one match (0-2) and home/away over 3.0 records are 5/10 and 4/10. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:30 |
Austria Regionalliga Ost |
Oberwart |
- |
SV Donau |
Over 1.5 First Half Goals |
82% |
First-half expected total is 2.65 vs the 1.5 line (Oberwart home HT: 2.00 scored/0.90 conceded; SV Donau away HT: 1.00 scored/1.40 conceded). Both teams have gone Over 1.5 first-half goals in 7 of their last 10 matches, with 3rd-placed Oberwart hosting 14th-placed SV Donau. Bookmaker mispricing is severe/strong on the goal line (Oberwart GL_5 2.70, SV Donau GL_5 1.95), so raw score caps at the 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:30 |
Austria Regionalliga Ost |
Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 |
- |
SV Wienerberg |
Over 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
72% |
Expected 1st-half total = (0.50+1.50)/2 + (0.80+1.00)/2 = 1.90, well above the 1.25 line (+0.65). Home are 50% (5/10) and away 60% (6/10) over 1.25 first-half goals in their last 10 role matches; H2H is empty. Away GL_5 market pricing error is 2.00 (accelerating vs GL_10 1.63), giving a partial strong-edge boost: 50 base +13 gap +5 away history +4 pricing error = 72%. |
|
| 04-09-2026 17:30 |
Paraguay Division Intermedia |
Independiente FBC |
- |
Fernando de la Mora |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.25 goals (home 1.40 scored/1.60 conceded at home; away 2.40 scored/1.10 conceded away) vs line 2.5, gap +0.75. Away are 6/10 Over 2.5 and have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches (Tembetary 2-1, Carapegua 2-0, Deportivo Santani 2-3); home goal-line market pricing error GL5 2.10 with GL10 1.70 is accelerating. Raw score 87% capped at 82% standard ceiling; H2H only one 1-1 meeting, treated as neutral. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:00 |
France Ligue 2 |
Laval |
- |
Red Star FC 93 |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total is 3.30 (Laval home: 1.80 scored, 1.50 conceded; Red Star away: 1.50 scored, 1.80 conceded) vs a 2.25 line, with 8/10 Laval and 6/10 Red Star matches over; H2H is only two low-scoring games (0-0, 0-1) so neutral. Mutual-opponent total is 2.46 and away GL_5 is 1.55 moderate bookmaker mispricing. Scoring: Base 50% + gap 15% + home history 10% + away history 5% + H2H 0% + common opponents 5% + likelihood 3% + GL_5 away 2.5% = 90.5% raw, capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:00 |
France Ligue 2 |
Grenoble |
- |
Annecy |
Over 2.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.85 (Grenoble 1.00 for/1.20 against at home; Annecy 2.00 for/1.50 against away) vs line 2.25. Annecy away are 70% over 2.25 (7-of-10), H2H is 2-of-3 over, and mutual-opponent total is 2.54. Scoring: Base 50% + gap 12% + away history 8% + H2H 5% + common opponents 5% + GL_5 home 2.5% = 82.5% capped at 82% (home history 40% over blocks elevated tier; home GL_5 1.70 moderate bookmaker mispricing). |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:00 |
Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
FC Emmen |
- |
FC Volendam |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total (A=1.9, B=1.5, C=2.4, D=2.2) = (1.9+1.5)/2+(2.4+2.2)/2=4.00, +0.75 vs 3.25 line; Emmen 7/10 and Volendam 6/10 over 3.25. Volendam conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (PSV Res 3-2, RKC 2-2, RKAV Volendam 2-3), mutual-opponent total 3.4 clears 3.25, and home GL_5 2.20 / away GL_5 1.80 show strong bookmaker mispricing; raw 91% capped at 82 (standard ceiling, away history not 70%). |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:00 |
Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
Ragsveds IF |
- |
IFK Haninge |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 4.35 ((1.70+1.40)/2 + (3.30+2.30)/2) against a 3.5 line, with Haninge 8/10 over 3.5 and Ragsveds 5/10 over 3.5 in their last 10, plus no H2H matches to veto the pick. Mutual-opponent totals also support Over at 3.93, and away-side bookmaker mispricing is strong at GL_5 2.0; raw score 91% is capped at the 82% standard ceiling because both teams do not exceed 70% over agreement. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:00 |
Croatia HNL |
NK Varazdin |
- |
Istra 1961 |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 3.50 (home 2.20 scored/1.10 conceded at home, away 2.00 scored/1.70 conceded away) against a 2.5/3.0 line. Varazdin are 6/10 over 2.5 and Istra 8/10 over 2.5; H2H is split 2/4 over, not a veto. Istra conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away matches, there is a top-4 vs bottom-4 quality gap, and away GL_5 1.50 bookmaker mispricing supports the Over. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:00 |
Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Al Ahli Jeddah |
- |
Al Riyadh |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
66% |
Home Al Ahli average 1.80 scored/1.30 conceded at home, while away Al Riyadh average 1.50 scored/1.80 conceded away, giving expected total 3.20 vs the 3.25 line. Mutual opponents support Over with combined total 3.55 (Al Ahli 3.2 for/0.5 against vs Al Riyadh 1.2/2.2), and Al Riyadh conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (4 at Al Ittifaq, 3 at Al Shabab, 4 at Al Fayha). Away GL_5 of 1.80 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with Over. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:00 |
Belgium Reserve League |
Seraing United Reserves |
- |
RAAL La Louviere Reserves |
Over 3.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected FT goals = (2.40+1.80)/2+(2.60+1.20)/2 = 4.00 vs 3.5 line. Scoring: base 50 + gap 10 + home history 0 + away history 8 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 0 + home bookmaker mispricing 0 + away bookmaker mispricing 2.5 + defensive fragility 5 + form 0 = 80.5%. RAAL are 5/7 over 3.5, conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away, mutual-opponent total is 4.45; H2H ended 1-3 and 3-1. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:15 |
Slovenia Prva Liga |
NK Nafta 1903 |
- |
NK Radomlje |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Home Nafta average 1.30 scored and 2.20 conceded at home while away Radomlje average 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded away, giving expected total 3.15 vs the 2.75 line (+0.40). Nafta are 7/10 (70%) and Radomlje 6/10 (60%) over 2.75 in their last 10, no H2H data to override, mutual opponents average 4.00 total goals, and Radomlje have conceded 2+ in each of their last 5 away matches. Home GL_5 bookmaker mispricing is 2.05 (strong/accelerating) vs away 1.15, raw score 85% capped to 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:30 |
Germany Bundesliga I |
VfB Stuttgart |
- |
Cologne |
Over 3.5 Goals |
68% |
Full-time expected total is 3.75 (Stuttgart 1.90 home-scored, Cologne 2.00 away-conceded, Cologne 1.80 away-scored, Stuttgart 1.80 home-conceded) against a 3.5 line. Stuttgart have gone over 3.5 in 8 of their last 10 matches (80%) and Cologne 5 of 10 (50%), with H2H split 3-1 over / 1-2 under. Cologne's 5.33 conceded shots-on-target against shared opponents and the 65% likelihood of over 3.5 balance a weak mutual-opponent goals average of 2.96. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:30 |
Belgium Reserve League |
KV Kortrijk Reserves |
- |
KFCO Beerschot-Wilrijk Reserves |
Over 3.5,4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 4.45 (home 3.60 scored/1.00 conceded at home; away 2.00 scored/2.30 conceded away) vs line 3.75. H2H totals 5 and 4 both clear the line, mutual-opponent total 4.65, and away defensive fragility (2+ conceded in 4 of last 5 away) plus bookmaker mispricing GL_5 home 2.45/away 1.95 align. Raw score 90 capped at 82 (history not 70%+). |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:45 |
Republic of Ireland First Division |
Finn Harps |
- |
Athlone Town |
Over 2.75 Goals |
68% |
Expected full-time total is 2.95 (home 0.80 scored/2.60 conceded, away 1.50 scored/1.00 conceded) vs the 2.75 line, and shot-based match potential is 4.58, both pointing Over. Finn Harps are 6/10 and Athlone 6/10 over 2.75, with Athlone conceding 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (Waterford, Cork, Treaty). Home market pricing error is 2.25 (strong, Over-aligned); the mutual-opponent total of 2.25 is the main counterweight. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:45 |
Republic of Ireland First Division |
Bray Wanderers |
- |
Cork City |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Bray home 2.00 scored/1.40 conceded and Cork away 2.10 scored/2.40 conceded give expected total 3.95 vs the 3.25 line (gap +0.70). Cork conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches (2 at Treaty, 5 at UCD, 4 at Shamrock); home/away Over 3.25 records are 5/10 and 6/10, while mutual opponents total 4.05 supports Over. Scoring: Base 50 + gap 14 + away history 5 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + structural fragility 5 = 82%. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:45 |
Republic of Ireland First Division |
Cobh Ramblers |
- |
UCD |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.40 vs 2.75 line (Cobh 1.30 scored/1.40 conceded at home, UCD 2.00 scored/2.10 conceded away). UCD went over 2.75 in 8 of 10 recent matches (80%), Cobh 5 of 10 (50%), and H2H has 2 of 3 over (2-0, 1-2, 4-0). Away GL_5 1.80 with GL_10 1.95 signals bookmaker mispricing aligned with the Over. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:45 |
Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
Lisburn Rangers Women |
- |
Linfield Women |
Over 4.0/4.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total is 4.95 (home scored/conceded 1.20/3.20; away scored/conceded 4.30/1.20) against the 4.0/4.5 line. Lisburn home matches are over in 3 of 5 (0-3, 6-0, 1-3, 3-2, 1-4) and Linfield away are over in 3 of 4 (2-1, 6-1, 9-1, 2-3); mutual opponents total 5.24 also clears. H2H is neutral (single 3-0 game), bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL5 1.40/1.30), giving 78% confidence. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:45 |
Wales Premier League |
Holywell Town |
- |
Trefelin BGC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total = (1.90+2.20)/2 + (2.30+2.30)/2 = 4.35 vs line 3.0, gap +1.35 (+15%). Holywell 7/10 previous matches Over 3.0, Trefelin 6/10; Trefelin conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away, Holywell home GL_5 1.70 moderate bookmaker mispricing. Raw 88% capped at 82% standard tier. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:45 |
Wales Premier League |
Cardiff MU |
- |
Cambrian United |
Cambrian United +0.5 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Cambrian United have covered +0.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches (3-0 win at Haverfordwest, 1-0 win vs Flint, 1-1 draw vs Briton Ferry, 2-2 draw vs Penybont), while Cardiff MU have covered -0.5 in only 3 of 5. Mutual opponents favour Cambrian United: away-side goals NET +1.33 (2.33 scored vs 1.00 conceded) versus Cardiff MU's -1.00 (0.50 scored vs 1.50 conceded), with 2W-0D-1L vs 1W-1D-2L and a 3-2 stat advantage count. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:45 |
Wales Premier League |
Connah's Quay |
- |
Haverfordwest County |
Connah's Quay -1.25 Asian Handicap |
75% |
Connah's Quay are 3rd (15 pts) vs 12th-placed Haverfordwest (3 pts) and covered -1.25 in 4 of their last 5 matches (3-0, 2-0, 6-0, 3-1); Haverfordwest are 0-1-4 vs AH in their last 5 and have lost both away league matches 0-2. Against common opponents, Connah's Quay hold a 5-3-2 record with a goals NET of +0.6 vs Haverfordwest's 2-1-3 and -0.5, reinforcing the home AH lean. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:45 |
Wales Championship North |
Ruthin Town FC |
- |
Caersws |
Over 3.0 Goals |
70% |
Breakdown: Base 50 + gap 5 + common opponents 5 + away market pricing error 5 + away defensive fragility 5 = 70. Expected total 3.35 (Ruthin 1.50 scored / 2.00 conceded; Caersws 2.00 scored / 1.20 conceded) vs line 3.0, mutual opponents total 3.33, and Caersws conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away. Home/away over-3.0 records are 33%/50% and H2H split 1-0/5-1, so the edge is totals, mispricing, and defensive fragility driven. |
|
| 04-09-2026 18:45 |
England National League |
Altrincham |
- |
Eastleigh |
Eastleigh +0.25 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Eastleigh sit 8th (10 pts) to Altrincham's 16th (6 pts), and Eastleigh have covered +0.25 in 4 of their last 5 margins: W/D/W/L/W, while Altrincham have covered -0.25 just 2 of 5. Mutual-opponent stats lean Altrincham, but with 2 of 3 AH signals supporting Eastleigh this is a narrow 65% edge. |
|
| 04-09-2026 19:00 |
Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
Shamrock Rovers |
- |
Shelbourne |
Over 2.5 Goals |
90% |
Full-time expected total is 3.65 (home 2.00 scored + away 1.80 conceded; away 1.70 scored + home 1.80 conceded) vs the 2.5 line. Shamrock 7/10 and Shelbourne 8/10 matches over 2.5, H2H 3/4 over 2.5, and mutual-opponent total 2.66 clears the line. Shelbourne conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away games and Shamrock GL_5 is 2.10 (accelerating vs 1.73 GL_10); raw score 92% capped at exceptional 90%. |
|
| 04-09-2026 19:00 |
Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
Shamrock Rovers |
- |
Bohemians Dublin |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.50 (home 1.50 scored/1.90 conceded at home; away 2.00 scored/1.60 conceded away) vs 2.50 line; Shamrock 6/10 and Bohemians 6/10 last matches Over 2.5, H2H 4/4 Over 2.5. Mutual-opponent total 3.44, away conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away, and bookmaker mispricing GL_5 1.95 for both teams align Over; raw score 96% from top signals capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-09-2026 19:00 |
Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
Shamrock Rovers |
- |
Shelbourne |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.35 (A=1.50, B=1.70, C=1.60, D=1.90) is 0.85 above the 2.5 line; mutual-opponent total is 2.77. Shelbourne are 7/10 Over 2.5 and have conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away; H2H is 3/4 Over (totals 3,5,4,1). Scoring: Base 50 +15 gap +8 away history +5 H2H +5 mutual opponents +4 home GL_5 1.95 +5 away defensive fragility = 92, capped 82 (standard ceiling). |
|
| 04-09-2026 19:15 |
Iceland 3 Deild |
KH Hlidarendi |
- |
Augnablik Kopavogur |
Over 3.5,4.0 Goals |
71% |
Expected FT total is 3.70 (home 2.30 scored/1.30 conceded at home; away 1.60 scored/2.20 conceded away) against a 3.5/4.0 line. KH Hlidarendi are over 3.5 in 6 of 10 recent matches, Augnablik 5 of 10, and the one H2H produced 4 total goals. Mutual opponents average 4.10 total goals, Augnablik concedes 8.2 shots on target away, and Augnablik's GL_5 of 2.30 shows strong bookmaker mispricing toward overs. |
|
| 04-09-2026 19:15 |
Iceland 3 Deild |
Ymir Kopavogur |
- |
Reynir Sandgerdi |
Over 4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.50 (home 1.60 scored, 2.50 conceded; away 2.60 scored, 2.30 conceded) vs line 4.0, a +0.50 gap. Away defensive fragility is structural: Reynir conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches. Mutual opponents total 4.40 supports Over; goal-line pricing error is elevated (home GL5 2.10, away 1.55, both accelerating). H2H 2-2 is neutral; match history mixed (home 40%, away 50% over 4.0), raw score 83 capped at 82. |
|
| 04-09-2026 19:30 |
Paraguay Division Intermedia |
Carapegua |
- |
Paraguari AC |
Over 2.25 Goals |
65% |
FT expected total is 2.50 ((1.10+1.40)/2 + (1.30+1.20)/2) against a 2.25 line. Mutual-opponent total is 2.78 and Paraguari conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches, though each side has gone over 2.25 in only 4 of 10 recent matches. Scoring: base 50% + gap 0.25 goals 5% + mutual opponents 5% + away defensive fragility 5% = 65%; 1H Over 1.0 was weaker (expected 1.15, poor HT history). |
|
| 04-09-2026 20:00 |
Algeria Division 1 |
JS Kabylie |
- |
MB Rouissat |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
82% |
A=1.90, B=1.80, C=1.10, D=1.30 → expected FT total 3.05 vs 2.0/2.5 line (gap +0.80); shot-based match potential 4.95 also supports Over. Mutual opponents total 3.05 supports Over; Rouissat conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away (ESBA 3, CRB 3, ESS 2, MC El Bayadh 2). Scoring: Base 50 + gap 15 + home history 0 (5/9 over) + away history 0 (4/7 over) + H2H 0 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3 + GL_5 home +5 + GL_5 away 0 + structural fragility +5 = 83% capped at 82. |
|
| 04-09-2026 23:00 |
Argentina Nacional B |
Ferro Carril Oeste |
- |
Club Atletico Mitre |
Over 0.75 First Half Goals |
82% |
Expected first-half total is 1.30 ((0.70+0.80)/2 + (0.60+0.50)/2) vs a 0.75 line, a +0.55 gap. Ferro and Mitre both went Over 0.75 HT in 8 of their last 10 matches (80%); Ferro's market pricing error GL_5 = 1.75 (accelerating). Breakdown: Base 50% + gap +11% + home HT history +10% + away HT history +10% + H2H +0% + quality gap +5% + GL_5 home +5% = 91% capped at 82%. |
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