| 05-09 10:00 |
Sagan Tosu
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2.30 +0.05 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.60 + 0.60 + 1.00 + 0.40) / 2 = 2.30 Error: 2.30 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.05 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
320 311 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.60 | 0.60 1.00 | 0.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
4.62 | 16.33 13.20 | 17.00 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
12.00 | 9.80 13.20 | 6.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.60 | 3.20 4.00 | 1.40 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
35.80 | 47.20 51.00 | 37.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 05-09 10:00 |
Shonan Bellmare
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-0.40 -0.40 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 10.04 Heim: 10.04 / ((13.25 + 11.33) / 2) = 0.82 Heim: 10.04 / ((10.17 + 6.36) / 2) = 1.21 Diff: 0.82 - 1.21 = -0.40 Error: -0.40 + AH line 0.00 = -0.40 |
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2.40 +0.15 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (0.80 + 1.20 + 2.20 + 0.60) / 2 = 2.40 Error: 2.40 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.15 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
113 500 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
0.80 | 1.20 2.20 | 0.60 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
13.25 | 10.17 6.36 | 11.33 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
10.60 | 12.20 14.00 | 6.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.80 | 5.20 6.00 | 2.80 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
46.00 | 40.80 43.20 | 36.20 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 05-09 10:00 |
Montedio Yamagata
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2.52 +0.27 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.20 + 1.60 + 0.25 + 2.00) / 2 = 2.52 Error: 2.52 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.27 |
5 4 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
113 013 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.20 | 1.60 0.25 | 2.00 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
10.33 | 11.00 31.00 | 5.13 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
12.40 | 17.60 7.75 | 10.25 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
5.20 | 7.80 1.75 | 5.25 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
47.80 | 66.80 43.75 | 53.25 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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