| 11-11-2026 21:30 |
El Salvador Apertura |
Fuerte San Francisco |
- |
Alianza FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected goals calc: A=Fuerte San Francisco 1.40 scored at home, B=Alianza 1.30 conceded away, C=Alianza 1.00 scored away, D=Fuerte 1.90 conceded at home → (1.40+1.30)/2 + (1.00+1.90)/2 = 2.80 vs the 2.5 line (gap +0.30); the shot-based match-potential check also lands above the line (~4.0). H2H is decisive: 3 of 4 meetings went Over 2.5 (2-2, 3-2, 1-3, only 0-1 under, 75%) and Fuerte San Francisco have gone Over 2.5 in 6 of their last 10 (3-4, 1-2, 2-1, 0-3, 2-2, 2-2). Alianza's away defence is leaky (conceded 2+ at Firpo, Marathon and FAS in their last five road games) and Fuerte concede 1.9 per home game, while bookmaker mispricing runs in the Over's favour on both sides (home GL_5 1.55 vs GL_10 1.33; away GL_5 1.70 vs GL_10 1.53 — both accelerating). Confidence: base 50% + gap from line +6% + home Over history 60% +5% + away Over history 50% +0% + H2H +5% + common opponents (mutual total 2.35, neutral) +0% + likelihood (Over 2.5 at 55%) +0% + market pricing error home +5% + market pricing error away +5% + away defensive fragility +5% − recent Alianza unders (4 of last 5, 3 blanks) −3% = 78%, held below the 82% standard ceiling because Alianza's scoring away (1.00/game) is the main risk. Corners rejected: expected 9.30 vs line 9.0 but home team only 4 of 10 Over 9 (40%) and HT corners (expected 4.70 vs 4.0) show just 30% Over 4 for Alianza; Asian Handicap rejected: Alianza covers only 2 of 10 AH while home covers 6 of 10. |
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| 11-11-2026 21:30 |
El Salvador Reserves League |
AD Isidro Metapan Reserves |
- |
CD Platense Zacatecoluca Reserves |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected goals calculate to 3.50 ((1.80+1.30)/2 + (1.70+2.20)/2), 0.50 above the 3.0 line, and the home side has gone over 3.0 in 7/10 recent matches. H2H is 3/3 over 3.0 (3-1, 2-2, 1-5), the mutual-opponent goals total is 3.57, and Platense conceded 2+ in three of their last five away games. Home GL_5 is 1.50, a moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with Over. |
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| 12-11-2026 00:00 |
USA USL Super League Women |
DC Power Women |
- |
Brooklyn Women |
Over 2.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected total is 2.85 goals: (home scored 1.60 + away conceded 1.80)/2 + (away scored 1.30 + home conceded 1.00)/2 = 1.70 + 1.15, clearing the 2.5 line by 0.35 and confirming Over (shot-based match potential also sits well above 2.5). DC Power's home matches went Over 2.5 in 6/10 (60%) and Brooklyn's last 10 produced 5/10 (50%), while H2H includes a 5-goal meeting (Brooklyn 1-4 DC) alongside a 2-goal game and the mutual-opponent goal volume (2.64) also clears 2.5. The decisive edge is Brooklyn's FT bookmaker pricing error: GL_5 of 2.05 (accelerating above its 1.90 GL_10) versus a well-calibrated DC GL_5 of 0.90, pointing the mispricing toward more goals; Brooklyn away concedes 1.80/game and DC scores 1.60 at home. 1st half Over 1.0 was rejected (expected HT only 1.05 vs line 1.0, with home HT matches 0-for-10 over 1.0), and corners Over 8 was rejected (expected 8.40 but DC home games only 40% over 8). |
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| 12-11-2026 01:00 |
El Salvador Apertura |
CD FAS |
- |
Inter FA |
Over 2.5 Goals |
70% |
Expected goals calculate to 2.50: (FAS home scored 1.40 + Inter away conceded 1.20)/2 + (Inter away scored 1.10 + FAS home conceded 1.30)/2. H2H supports Over strongly with all 3 meetings over 2.5 (2-2, 2-2, 3-1), and recent form also leans Over with 3 of each side’s last 5 matches clearing 2.5. Mutual-opponent goals volume is 2.74, above the 2.5 line, giving additional Over support. |
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| 12-11-2026 02:00 |
Mexico Liga de Expansion |
Piratas |
- |
Club Atletico La Paz |
1st Half Over 1.25 Goals |
76% |
First-half expected goals are 1.80, calculated as (0.80+0.90)/2 + (1.20+0.70)/2, versus the 1.25 line. Club Atletico La Paz has scored in the first half in 9/10 recent matches and their last 10 first-half totals went over 1.25 in 7/10 (70%), while Piratas’ home first-half record is mixed but not a veto; H2H is empty. The 1H line gap of 0.55 goals and the higher 2.025 price make this preferable to the full-time Over 3.0, with added support from La Paz conceding 5.6 shots on target against mutual opponents. |
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| 12-11-2026 13:00 |
Argentina Nacional Reserve League |
CD Moron Reserves |
- |
Nueva Chicago Reserves |
CD Moron Reserves -0.25 (Asian Handicap) |
66% |
CD Moron's Asian Handicap record over the last 5 is 4W-0V-1L (80% cover) versus Nueva Chicago's 1W-0V-4L (20%), and Moron's home form (3W-1D-1L: 2-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-3, 2-1) shows their wins come by the single goal that fully cashes -0.25, while Nueva Chicago's recent away games (lost 2-0 at Estudiantes, 1-0 at San Miguel) are weak. Recent H2H also favours the home side (Moron 2-0 Nueva Chicago, 18-Jun-2026), and with near-even expected goals of 2.25 (home 1.10 scored / 1.00 conceded at home; away 1.30 / 1.10 away) the -0.25 quarter-line gives a half-stake refund on the draw. Confidence held at a moderate 66% because the mutual-opponent goal NET actually tilts slightly to the away side (NC +1.0 vs Moron +0.5) and the low-scoring Moron profile caps the upside. |
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| 12-11-2026 13:00 |
Argentina Nacional Reserve League |
Ferrocarril Midland Reserves |
- |
Almagro Reserves |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 3.10 ((0.90 home scored + 1.80 away conceded)/2 + (1.00 away scored + 2.50 home conceded)/2), a +0.60 gap over the 2.5 line, and the shot-based check supports it (match potential ~4.7 vs line). 8 of 10 home matches (80%) and 6 of 10 away matches (60%) cleared 2.5 goals, mutual opponents average 3.01 total goals with the home side holding a 4-1 stat edge, and Almagro has conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games (3,2,1,2,2). Home leaks 2.5 at home and BTTS likelihood is 70%, so the Over is the strongest signal; bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 1.30 home / 1.15 away), which caps confidence at the standard 82% ceiling. |
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| 12-11-2026 13:30 |
Argentina Nacional Reserve League |
Defensores de Belgrano Reserves |
- |
Club Atletico Mitre Reserves |
Asian Handicap: Defensores de Belgrano Reserves 0 |
67% |
Defensores are 4-1 on Asian Handicap in their last five and 7-2 in their last ten, while Mitre are also strong at 4-1/7-2, but the mutual-opponent comparison leans home: Defensores lead 4 of the 5 stat categories (shots for/against 10.25/8.00 vs 3.67/2.33, on target 4.0/3.0 vs 2.0/1.33) and hold a W3-L1 record against shared opponents. The only H2H is a 2-2 draw, which is neutral at level handicap, and the 1.975 price on Defensores 0 is supported by their stronger pressure profile and recent handicap results. |
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| 12-11-2026 14:00 |
Argentina Nacional Reserve League |
CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves |
- |
Talleres Remedios Reserves |
CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves 1st Half Asian Handicap -0.25 |
67% |
Estudiantes Reserves have not trailed at half-time in their last 10 matches (3 HT wins, 7 draws), and at home they led at the break in 2 of their last 5 while drawing the other three; Talleres Remedios Reserves have failed to lead at half-time in all four recent away games (0 HT wins, 1 draw, 3 HT losses). The venue-matched mutual-opponent sample strongly favours Estudiantes (2W-1D-0L, 1.67 goals for / 0.67 against vs 1W-0D-2L, 0.67 / 2.33), and the lone H2H is too small a sample to override. At 2.15, home -0.25 in the 1st half is the best available value; full-time goal-line and corner markets have no current prices. |
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| 12-11-2026 15:00 |
Argentina Reserve League |
Lujan Reserves |
- |
CA Claypole Reserves |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total = (2.40 home goals scored at home + 1.20 away goals conceded away)/2 + (1.90 away goals scored away + 0.80 home goals conceded at home)/2 = 1.80 + 1.35 = 3.15, a 0.65-goal gap above the 2.5 line. The shot-based cross-check, match potential = (11.8+8.7)x2 / ((4.92+4.58+8.13+5.83)/4) = 41.0/5.865 = 6.99, also clears the line comfortably. Match history is 7 of 10 Over 2.5 for Lujan Reserves (3-0, 3-1, 3-0, 3-0, 2-0, 6-1, 6-1) and 7 of 10 for CA Claypole Reserves (3-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-2, 4-0, 3-1, 2-0), both 70 percent. Structural overs support: Claypole conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 4 away games (2 at Lugano, 2 at Defensores, 3 at Leones) and Lujan have won all 5 home games scoring 17. H2H is empty (neutral) and mutual opponents are unavailable, so no contradiction. Bookmaker pricing error is limited (home GL_5 0.85 well-calibrated, away GL_5 1.15 only mild, both stabilising vs GL_10), so confidence is capped at the standard tier. No 1st-half or corners line is priced in this fixture, so the full-time goal line is the only qualifying market. |
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| 12-11-2026 16:15 |
Slovenia League Women |
Olimpija Ljubljana Women |
- |
ZNK Ljubljana Women |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
1st-half expected total is 2.10 vs the 1.5 line: (1.10+0.60)/2 + (1.20+1.30)/2 = 0.85+1.25, a +0.60 gap, larger than the full-time gap of 3.95 vs 3.5. Home/away HT Over 1.5 history is around 60% and 60-67%, with 60% on both likelihood HT reads, while market pricing error is high and accelerating in the Over direction: home GL_5 2.45 vs GL_10 1.48 and away GL_5 2.15 vs GL_10 1.75. Raw score 50 +12 gap +5 home HT +5 away HT +0 H2H +0 structural +8 home pricing +8 away pricing = 88, capped at the standard 82% because both teams do not clear 70%+ HT history. |
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| 12-11-2026 17:00 |
UEFA Women's Europa Cup |
Torreense Women |
- |
Sparta Praha Women |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals = (2.90+1.50)/2 + (2.40+1.00)/2 = 3.90, well above the 2.75 goal line. Torreense are 9/10 over 2.5/2.75 in recent matches and Sparta are 6/8, with the only H2H a 2-2 first leg (4 goals). Bookmaker mispricing is also supportive: Sparta's GL_5 is 2.05 versus GL_10 1.48, an accelerating high-error signal in the Over direction; the 1st-half line (expected 1.30 vs 1.25) is far weaker. |
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| 12-11-2026 18:00 |
Argentina Liga Profesional Reserves |
Barracas Central Reserves |
- |
Argentinos Jrs Reserves |
Under 2.25 Goals |
73% |
Expected total from venue splits is exactly 2.25 — Barracas score 0.80 and concede 1.00 at home, Argentinos score 0.90 and concede 1.80 away, giving (0.80+1.80)/2 + (0.90+1.00)/2 = 1.30+0.95 = 2.25 — and that headline figure is inflated for the visitors by one 8-1 loss: both teams' last 10 matches produced 7 of 10 totals at 2 goals or fewer (home: 1,1,2,2,0,0,3,4,3,2; away: 9,2,3,1,1,2,2,0,5,2), and only 30% cleared 2.5. Mutual opponents confirm the low-scoring read at 1.8 combined goals per game across the same 10 shared opponents (home 0.7 scored/1.0 conceded, away 0.7 scored/1.2 conceded), the away side has scored exactly one goal in each of their last five away matches, and both clubs sit bottom-half with negative goal difference (-9 and -12). The 0.25-ball quarter line at 1.775 is fair-to-generous: the away team's GL_5 of 2.05 (up from 1.55) is outlier-driven and points in an ambiguous direction, while the home GL_5 of 0.95 shows a well-calibrated line, so no confidence is added for mispricing. |
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| 12-11-2026 18:00 |
Spain Copa del Rey |
Navalcarnero |
- |
Real Betis |
Navalcarnero +2.5 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Navalcarnero have covered +2.5 in all 10 recent matches, with no defeat by 3+ goals, while Real Betis have only one 3+ goal win in their last 10 and are 2W-1V-2L on Asian Handicap in their last five. The mutual-opponent data also leans slightly to Navalcarnero (goals NET +0.5 vs 0.0 and a 3-2 stat advantage), so the +2.5 line at 1.975 offers value despite Betis' clear quality edge. |
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| 12-11-2026 18:00 |
Spain Copa del Rey |
Navalcarnero |
- |
Real Betis |
Navalcarnero +2.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Navalcarnero have covered the Asian handicap in 7 of their last 10 (4 of last 5) and have not lost any of those 10 matches by 3+ goals, while Real Betis have only one win by 3+ goals in their last 10 and a 5-win, 2-push, 3-loss AH record. The +2.25 line means Navalcarnero cover unless Betis win by three or more; mutual-opponent data gives Navalcarnero a +0.5 goals net versus 0.0 for Betis and a 3-2 stat advantage, while the standings gap is the main counter-signal. No H2H matches are available to override this. |
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| 12-11-2026 18:00 |
Argentina Championship Women |
Ferro Carril Oeste Women |
- |
Lanus Women |
Over 2.25 Goals |
78% |
Expected full-time goals = (1.80+1.20)/2 + (0.80+1.70)/2 = 2.75, 0.50 above the 2.25 line. Ferro are 7/10 Over 2.5 in recent matches and have scored in all last 10, while Lanus have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away games but concede 5.0 shots on target away (5.5 vs mutual opponents), confirming pressure. Mutual-opponent total is 2.9 goals and home GL_5 is 1.70 (moderate bookmaker mispricing, accelerating vs 1.53); confidence: base 50 + gap 10 + home history 8 + away history 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + GL5 home 5 + GL5 away 0 + structural -3 (away scoring drought) = 78%. |
|
| 12-11-2026 19:45 |
UEFA Nations League A |
England |
- |
Croatia |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
England average 3.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded at home while Croatia average 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded away, giving an expected total of 3.95 against a 3.25 line. Croatia have conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away matches and the two H2H meetings produced 7 and 6 goals; 8 of 10 recent matches for each side reached at least 3 goals, limiting downside on the split 3.0/3.5 line. Bookmaker mispricing is severe for England (GL_5 2.85, accelerating from 1.98) and moderate for Croatia (GL_5 1.60 vs 1.48), both pointing to the Over. |
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| 12-11-2026 20:00 |
Jamaica Premier League |
Mount Pleasant FA |
- |
Portmore United |
Over 1.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected goals: (home scored 1.40 + away conceded 1.10)/2 + (away scored 1.70 + home conceded 1.00)/2 = 1.25 + 1.35 = 2.60, a full 1.10 above the 1.5 line, and the shot-based match potential (51.8 total shots / 7.62 goals-per-shot ratio = 6.80) also clears the line comfortably. History agrees in both camps: 8 of 10 Mount Pleasant matches and 9 of 10 Portmore matches produced 2+ goals, and Mount Pleasant scored in all four H2H meetings (totals 1,1,2,2 — which is exactly why the pick is Over 1.5 and not Over 2.5, since 100% of H2H stayed under 2.5). Mutual opponents average 3.17 combined goals per game with the home side net +1.00 vs +0.87 goals; bookmaker pricing error is only mild on Portmore (1.25) and negligible on Mount Pleasant (0.50), so no pricing adjustment is added. |
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| 12-11-2026 21:30 |
El Salvador Apertura |
CD Aguila |
- |
Municipal Limeno |
1st Half Over 1.25 Goals |
70% |
1st-half scoring model: (Aguila home HT 0.90 scored / 0.50 conceded) and (Limeno away HT 0.90 scored / 1.10 conceded) gives (0.90+1.10)/2 + (0.90+0.50)/2 = 1.70 expected first-half goals against a 1.25 line, a +0.45 gap. Aguila had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5 home matches and Limeno's last 5 away matches all produced a first-half goal (1, 2, 3, 2, 1 = 3 of 5 over 1.25), backing the Over. Bookmaker mispricing is strong and accelerating on both sides (GL_5 home 2.30 vs GL_10 1.90; away 1.95 vs 1.85), and full-time splits (Aguila home 2.40 scored/1.20 conceded; Limeno away 1.80/2.00) give a 3.70 expected total that clears the 2.75 line by ~0.95. The three H2H meetings averaged only 1.0 goal (0-0, 2-0, 1-0), so confidence is deliberately held below the raw checklist figure, and no HT H2H split data exists to trigger a veto. |
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