| 09-11-2026 17:00 |
Serbia Prva Liga |
Javor Ivanjica |
- |
FK Backa Topola |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total = (2.30+1.10)/2 + (2.60+1.20)/2 = 3.60 goals, comfortably clear of the 2.5 line, and the shot-based match potential (57.0 shots / 6.80 ratio ≈ 8.4) also clears it. Recent form is heavily Over: Javor went Over 2.5 in 7 of 10 and Backa Topola in 9 of 10, Javor has scored 3+ in each of its last three home games, Backa Topola conceded 2+ in 3 of its last 5 away games, and the mutual-opponent goal average of 3.59 against shared opposition confirms the volume. The one drag is a small 3-match H2H trending under (1-1, 6-1, 0-0, only 33% Over), which is why confidence sits at 78% rather than higher, but Backa Topola's persistent bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.65, opening line repeatedly under actual goals) plus the top-of-table attacking profiles keep this a clear Over play. |
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| 09-11-2026 17:00 |
Israel Leumit Liga |
SC Kfar Qasim |
- |
Hapoel Afula |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Full-time expected total = (1.50+1.40)/2 + (1.90+1.30)/2 = 3.05 vs the 2.5 line (gap +0.55), driven by Hapoel Afula's potent away attack (1.90 goals scored per away game) and Kfar Qasim's 1.50 scored / 1.30 conceded at home. Afula's matches went Over 2.5 in 7 of 10 (70%) and the venue-matched mutual-opponent goals total of (1.7+1.3+1.25+1.25)/2 = 2.75 also clears the line. Afula concedes 5.8 shots on target per away game (weak-defence Over signal) and the overall likelihood has Over 2.5 at 60% (away side 70%). Bookmaker mispricing is material: Kfar Qasim's GL_5 is 2.05 (>1.8, strong) and accelerating vs GL_10 1.93, pointing the same direction as the Over with the expected total 0.55 above the opening line; the shot-based match potential (~5.4 by formula) independently confirms the Over bias. Home history is only 50% so I cap at 80%. |
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| 09-11-2026 17:00 |
Israel Leumit Liga |
Hapoel Kfar Saba |
- |
Maccabi Bnei Raina |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
66% |
1H expected goals: (0.80+0.80)/2 + (1.00+0.70)/2 = 1.65, above the 1.25 line; away has gone over 1.25 in 2/4 away matches and home in 2/3 home matches. Away scores 36.8% of goals in the first 15 minutes and home concedes 0.70 first-half goals at home, while away GL_5 1.65 shows moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with Over. Confidence 66% = base 50 + gap +8 + home HT history +5 + away HT history +0 + H2H +0 + market pricing error +2.5. |
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| 09-11-2026 18:00 |
Norway Eliteserien |
Kristiansund BK |
- |
Valerenga |
Over 3.5 Goals |
80% |
Full-time expected goals are 3.95: (Kristiansund home scored 1.60 + Valerenga away conceded 1.60)/2 + (Valerenga away scored 2.10 + Kristiansund home conceded 2.60)/2, clearing the 3.5 line. Kristiansund are 7/10 Over 3.5 and Valerenga 6/10 Over 3.5, while Valerenga have conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away matches; the only two H2H games (3-1, 3-3) are treated neutral. Breakdown: base 50 + gap from line +9 + home history +8 + away history +5 + H2H +0 + common opponents +0 + likelihood +0 + market pricing error home +3 (GL_5 1.50, half-weighted) + away +0 (GL_5 1.25) + structural away defensive fragility +5 = 80%. |
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| 09-11-2026 19:30 |
England FA Cup |
Plymouth Parkway |
- |
Berkhamsted |
Plymouth Parkway -0.25 (Asian Handicap) |
70% |
Plymouth sit 4th overall (2nd in the home table at 7W-0D-0L, 19 GF/3 GA) versus 12th-placed Berkhamsted (away record 2W-2D-4L, 10 GF/14 GA), and the handicap form matches: Plymouth covered 5 of 5 recent AH lines (8 of 10 overall) while Berkhamsted went 3W-2L last 5. Against shared opponents Plymouth are 2W-0D-1L with a 5-0 sweep of the goals-NET (-0.34 vs -1.67), shots, on-target (5.67 vs 2.0 for), dangerous-attacks (46 vs 38.3) and goal-frequency comparisons, whereas Berkhamsted are 0W-1D-2L conceding 2.67 goals per game, and the line shortening from 2.05 to 1.85 confirms money on the home side. |
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| 09-11-2026 19:45 |
England Southern Premier League Central |
Redditch |
- |
Peterborough Sports |
Over 3.0/3.5 Goals (3.25 line) |
67% |
Expected full-time total = (Redditch home scored 1.80 + Peterborough Sports away conceded 1.70)/2 + (PS away scored 2.10 + Redditch home conceded 1.20)/2 = 1.75 + 1.65 = 3.40, which clears the 3.25 line by +0.15 — inside the over-preferred band — and PS's away games this season have averaged 3.80 total goals (2.10 for, 1.70 against). Mutual-opponent data (Needham Market, Leighton Town) is decisive: PS's two away games against them produced 3-3 and 4-2 (avg 3.5 scored, 2.5 conceded, 7.5 shots on target conceded = weak-backline structural Over signal), giving mutual_total 4.25 versus the 3.25 line, while recent form shows PS's last five matches averaging 4.2 goals with 4+ goals in four of them and Redditch's last five averaging 3.2. Bookmaker mispricing is one-sided and accelerating: PS market pricing error GL_5 2.15 vs GL_10 1.68 (expected total above opening line, so the edge direction aligns) versus Redditch's well-calibrated 0.60, and PS conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (Leamington 4, Needham 3, Leighton 2). Scoring: base 50% + gap from line +3% + home history 0% (30% of Redditch matches reach 4+) + away history 0% (50%) + H2H +0% (single 2-2 meeting, neutral) + common opponents +5% + likelihood +0% (3.5 line 45%, neutral) + GL_5 home +0% + GL_5 away +4% (single-team, halved) + structural away fragility +5% = 67%, with the thin history at this exact line and the frequency of exactly-3-goal games (30%) the main reason it stays in the standard tier rather than elevated. 1st half was rejected: expected HT total 1.55 vs the 1.25 line looks attractive, but only 4 of 10 matches for each side reach 2+ HT goals (40%) and Over 1.25 turns a single HT goal into a half-loss, making it weaker than the full-time signal; corners were unavailable (no Asian Corners price). |
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| 09-11-2026 19:45 |
England National League South |
Chelmsford |
- |
Ebbsfleet United |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time total is 3.25 vs the 2.75 line: Chelmsford average 2.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded at home, while Ebbsfleet average 2.50 scored and 0.90 conceded away. Role-specific history supports Over (Ebbsfleet away 2/3 over 2.75, Chelmsford home 2/4; 7/10 overall for Ebbsfleet), the sole H2H is neutral, and mutual-opponent goals total 2.82. Chelmsford also shows moderate bookmaker mispricing on the goal line (GL_5 1.55 vs GL_10 1.75), while the 1st-half Over is weaker because both sides have only 3/10 HT overs and the HT expected total is just 1.35 vs 1.25. |
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| 09-11-2026 21:00 |
Honduras Reserve League |
CD Marathon Reserves |
- |
CD Platense Reserves |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected goals are 3.50 vs the 2.75 line, built from Marathon's 1.40 scored/2.10 conceded at home and Platense's 2.00 scored/1.50 conceded away. Marathon cleared 2.75 in 9/10 recent matches and Platense in 7/10, while the mutual-opponent goals total of 3.09 also supports Over; H2H is only two matches (0-1, 1-1) so it is neutral by sample rule. Confidence 82% = base 50 + gap +15 + home history +10 + away history +8 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +3, capped at the standard ceiling; market pricing error is well-calibrated (GL_5 1.20 home, 1.05 away). |
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| 09-11-2026 21:30 |
Honduras Reserve League |
Olancho FC Reserves |
- |
Lobos UPNFM Reserves |
Over 3.25 Goals |
78% |
Expected goals = (2.10+1.20)/2 + (2.70+2.20)/2 = 4.10, well above the 3.25 line; Olancho home matches went over 3.25 in 8/10 and Lobos away matches went over 3.25 in 6/10. H2H is a concern (3/4 finished exactly 3 goals), so confidence is reduced by 10%, but the structural reason to still back Over is Lobos' away defence conceding 2+ in each of their last five away games (2,4,4,5,2) while Olancho scored 3+ in four of their last five home games. Home GL_5 is 2.00 and accelerating vs GL_10 1.60, adding bookmaker mispricing support for Over 3.25. |
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| 10-11-2026 19:00 |
Spain Copa del Rey |
Amorebieta |
- |
UD Logrones |
Over 2.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected total = (A+B)/2 + (C+D)/2 = (1.30+1.30)/2 + (2.00+1.00)/2 = 2.80 goals against the 2.5 line (gap +0.30): Amorebieta average 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded at home, UD Logrones average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded away. UD Logrones' last five away matches ALL went over 2.5 (totals 4, 4, 8, 3, 3 — averaging 4.4 goals), Amorebieta's home games are 3 of 5 over 2.5 (totals 1, 3, 3, 1, 4), the sole H2H finished 4-1 (5 goals), and the 2.5 line clears in 60% of the overall likelihood sample (70% for Logrones). Bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 home 1.05, away 1.15 — away trend stabilising vs GL_10 1.38), and the venue-matched common-opponent sample is slightly cooler at 2.25 total, so this is a modest 72% edge rather than a high-conviction one; no corners market is priced (Asian Corners blank), and the AH line (away -0.5 at 1.925 against Logrones' 1-win-in-5 AH form) does not qualify. |
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