| 12-05-2026 09:30 |
Avondale |
- |
Brunswick City |
Over 3.75 Goals |
75% |
Avondale averages 2.6 goals at home and Brunswick concedes 1.7 away, giving an expected total of 3.65 just below the 3.75 line. Avondale's last 5 home matches saw 80% (4/5) exceed 3.5 goals, while Brunswick conceded 2+ in 80% of recent away matches (8/10). The clear quality gap (NPL top-4 vs lower division opponent), home form momentum, and accelerating home team mispricing (GL_5 1.85) all point to an Over outcome despite the tight line. |
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| 12-05-2026 09:45 |
Sunshine Coast Wanderers Women |
- |
Eastern Suburbs NPL Women |
|
65% |
Eastern Suburbs NPL Women have strong away form, winning 2 of their last 3 away matches by margins of 2 and 3 goals, and their H2H against Sunshine Coast also resulted in a 2-0 win. Common opponent analysis (vs Brisbane Olympic and Gold Coast Knights) shows they consistently perform better than Sunshine Coast, supporting the Asian Handicap -1 cover. With 66% of recent away matches covering the line and a confidence of 65%, this is the best value bet in the match. |
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| 12-05-2026 09:45 |
North Sunshine Eagles |
- |
Eltham Redbacks |
Eltham Redbacks 0.0 (Asian Handicap) |
68% |
Eltham Redbacks are 4th in the standings (23 points) against North Sunshine Eagles' 12th (10 points), a clear quality gap. They have a strong Asian Handicap record, winning 4 of their last 5 (80% cover), and won the recent head-to-head 3-2. The combination of league position, handicap form, and H2H support makes backing Eltham Redbacks at even handicap the best value. |
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| 12-05-2026 10:30 |
Incheon Utd |
- |
Pohang Steelers |
Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half |
65% |
Expected 1st half goals 0.95 (Incheon home 1H avg 0.80 + Pohang away conceded 1H 0.40 = 0.60; Pohang away 1H avg 0.30 + Incheon home conceded 1H 0.40 = 0.35) exceed the 0.75 line by 0.20. Incheon home 1H record is 4/5 Over (80%), though Pohang away 1H record is 1/4 Over (25%). Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.20/1.10). Despite mixed away history, the expected gap and over-first philosophy favour Over 0.75 as the best available bet. |
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| 12-05-2026 12:30 |
Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi |
- |
Polissya Zhytomyr |
Over 2.5 Goals |
69% |
Expected total of 2.65 goals (home avg 1.40 at home + away conceded 0.70 away, averaged with away scored 1.90 away + home conceded 1.30 at home) exceeds the 2.5 line by 0.15. Polissya's dominant attacking form (2nd in standings vs Epitsentr 11th) and home GL_5 of 1.90 (strong bookmaker mispricing accelerating toward Over) support the Over despite mixed recent match history (home 1/5 Over at home, away 2/5 Over away). H2H (0-0) is neutral with only one meeting. |
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| 12-05-2026 13:00 |
Namdhari FC |
- |
Gokulam Kerala FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.65 goals (home avg 1.50 + away concede 2.30 /2 plus away score 1.60 + home concede 1.90 /2) well above line 2.75. Away defensive fragility: Gokulam conceded 2+ in 3 of last 4 away matches (Real Kashmir 3-0, Diamond Harbour 5-2, Real Kashmir 6-2). Strong bookmaker mispricing: home GL_5=1.95, away GL_5=2.45, both accelerating and direction supports over. |
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| 12-05-2026 14:10 |
Al Ittihad Kalba U23 |
- |
Al Nasr SC U23 |
Over 3.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total of 3.70 (home avg 1.9 scored + 2.4 conceded, away avg 1.3 scored + 1.8 conceded) exceeds the 3.5 line. Home team's 3/3 home matches all went Over 3.5, and home team's GL_5 of 1.60 shows accelerating bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. Despite away team's 1/4 away Over record, the structural edge from home attacking/defensive numbers and variance support Over. |
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| 12-05-2026 15:00 |
Zaglebie Lubin II |
- |
Carina Gubin |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected FT total 3.70 (home 1.9+away conceded 2.5)/2 + (away scored 1.4+home conceded 1.6)/2 = 2.20+1.50 exceeds the line of 3.25. Carina Gubin away conceded 2+ goals in 5 of last 6 away matches, while Zaglebie Lubin II home Over rate is 50% and Carina away Over rate is 66.7%; H2H both matches went Over (4 and 5 total goals). Bookmaker mispricing is moderate (home GL_5=1.55, away GL_5=1.65) favoring Over. Confident in Over 3.0,3.5 Goals. |
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| 12-05-2026 15:00 |
FC Veres Rivne |
- |
FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih |
Over 2.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 2.80 (A=0.90,B=1.60,C=1.70,D=1.40) slightly above 2.75 line. Away team Kryvbas conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches (structural fragility). Bookmaker mispricing is severe: Kryvbas GL_5 = 2.80 (>1.8, accelerating from GL_10=2.08). Away history shows 6/10 matches over 2.5 (60%). |
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| 12-05-2026 15:30 |
FC Trinity Zlin |
- |
FK Teplice |
Over 0.75 1st Half Goals (handicap 0.5, 1.0) |
82% |
Expected first-half goals total 1.50 (Zlin home avg 0.70 + Teplice away conceded 0.60 → 0.65; Teplice away scored 0.50 + Zlin home conceded 1.20 → 0.85) well above the 0.75 line. Zlin's last 10 home first halves all had at least 1 goal (100% over), and Teplice's last 10 away first halves went over in 6 (60%). The recent H2H saw 4 first-half goals. Structural signals: Zlin scores early (50% of goals before minute 45 at home), and Teplice conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. Bookmaker mispricing is mild but directionally supportive (home GL_5 1.45, away GL_5 1.25). Combined evidence yields 82% confidence in the Over. |
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| 12-05-2026 16:00 |
Riga FC |
- |
FK Auda |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.90 goals (Home avg 3.20 at home + Away conceded 1.10 away averaged with Away scored 2.20 away + Home conceded 1.30 at home) exceeds line of 3.0 by 0.90. Riga's last 10 matches saw 60% Over 3.0, and FK Auda's away record shows 30% Over, but both teams average 3.2 and 2.2 goals per game respectively. H2H over 4 matches yielded 2 Over and 2 exactly 3, showing mixed signals. Market pricing error is moderate (Riga GL_5 1.65, Auda 1.55), both trending upward, indicating the line may underestimate goals. Despite away history, the expected total and variance support Over. |
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| 12-05-2026 16:00 |
Viking FK Women |
- |
Haugesund Women |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
81% |
Expected 1st half total of 2.00 (home 1.30 + away conceded 0.90 averaged with away 1.10 + home conceded 0.70) exceeds the 1.25 line by 0.75. Home first-half Over rate is 75% (3/4 home matches) and away first-half Over rate is 75% (3/4 away matches), both strongly supporting the Over. Bookmaker mispricing on full-time goal line is high (home GL_5=2.10, away=1.65), indicating systemic underestimation of goals in this matchup. |
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| 12-05-2026 16:20 |
Al Kholood |
- |
Al Okhdood |
Over 2.75 Goals |
80% |
Expected total 3.30 goals (home avg 1.30 scored at home + away avg 2.20 conceded away averaged with away avg 0.90 scored away + home avg 2.20 conceded at home) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.55 goals. Home team Al Kholood has 4/5 (80%) home matches over 2.75, and away team Al Okhdood has 3/5 (60%) away matches over. Crucially, Al Okhdood have conceded 2+ goals in all 5 away matches (defensive fragility). Match potential (shot-based) of 4.30 also supports over. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.35 home, 1.25 away), but the structural signals are strong. |
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| 12-05-2026 17:00 |
Djurgardens Women |
- |
Hammarby Women |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.80, calculated from Djurgardens' home HT averages (1.10 scored, 0.70 conceded) and Hammarby's away HT averages (1.30 scored, 0.50 conceded), exceeding the 1.5 line. Djurgardens have 60% of recent home matches going Over 1.5 in the first half, while both teams show high early scoring rates (70-80% likelihood). Hammarby's attacking strength and the quality gap add structural support for early goals. |
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| 12-05-2026 17:00 |
IFK Varnamo |
- |
Orebro SK |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total from averages is 3.15 (home 1.60 scored + 2.00 conceded at home, away 1.30 scored + 1.40 conceded away), well above the 2.75 line. Varnamo's last 10 home matches saw 90% over this line, and Orebro's last 10 away matches 60% over. Home team's GL_5 of 1.70 indicates accelerating bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. Both teams are level on points in the table, likely to push for goals. |
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| 12-05-2026 17:00 |
Landskrona BoIS |
- |
Norrby IF |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.35 goals (home avg 1.30 scored + away avg 1.60 conceded /2 = 1.45, plus away avg 2.00 scored + home avg 1.80 conceded /2 = 1.90) comfortably above the line of 2.5. Both teams have 60% Over in recent matches (6/10 each). Away team's GL_5 of 1.50 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing that aligns with the Over direction. No H2H data to contradict. Structural signals are neutral but the numbers strongly favour goals. |
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| 12-05-2026 18:00 |
Real Betis |
- |
Elche |
Over 2.75 Goals |
80% |
Expected total goals 3.05 (home avg 1.80 scored at home + away avg 1.60 conceded away → 1.70, away avg 1.40 scored away + home avg 1.30 conceded at home → 1.35) exceeds the 2.75 line. Real Betis home matches went Over in 3/5 (60%), Elche away matches Over in 5/6 (83%). Quality gap (Betis 7th home vs Elche 20th away) supports attacking pressure. Home team GL_5=1.65 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing accelerating in Over direction. First-half expected 1.50 vs line 1.25 also favors Over, but full-time confidence is higher at 80%. |
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| 12-05-2026 18:00 |
Real Betis |
- |
Elche |
Over 2.75 Goals |
78% |
Expected total goals 3.05 (Betis home scored 1.80, conceded 1.30; Elche away scored 1.40, conceded 1.60) exceeds the 2.75 line, with Betis home (60%) and Elche away (83%) records supporting Under. Accelerating market mispricing for Betis (GL_5 1.65 vs 1.38) adds edge, and likelihood data shows 65% chance of over 2.5 goals. |
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| 12-05-2026 18:45 |
Kilmarnock |
- |
Dundee |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total goals 3.15 (home avg 1.50 scored/1.50 conceded, away avg 1.70 scored/1.60 conceded) exceeds line 2.75. Kilmarnock home history 60% Over, Dundee away history 75% Over, and H2H 75% Over (3 of 4 matches). Relegation battle and away defensive fragility (Dundee conceded 2+ in 3 of last 4 away) reinforce Over. Bookmaker mispricing is low (GL_5 0.80 for both), but structural factors produce confidence at 78%. |
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| 12-05-2026 18:45 |
Clyde |
- |
Hamilton |
Over 2.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected total of 3.05 goals (from Clyde's 1.60 avg home goals vs Hamilton's 1.50 avg away conceded, plus Hamilton's 1.60 avg away goals vs Clyde's 1.40 avg home conceded) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.30. Hamilton's last 5 away matches produced over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, and Clyde have scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home games. Market pricing error is low (GL_5 1.00 and 0.70) but the structural signals support an Over bet. |
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| 12-05-2026 19:00 |
Catanzaro |
- |
Avellino |
Over 2.0, 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Catanzaro's home averages (2.0 scored, 1.9 conceded) and Avellino's away averages (1.3 scored, 0.9 conceded) yield an expected total of 3.05, well above the 2.0/2.5 line. Catanzaro has seen Over in 80% of their last 5 home matches, and strong bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 = 2.00, accelerating) supports Over. Additionally, Catanzaro have scored 2+ in their last 3 home games, reinforcing the Over trend. |
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| 12-05-2026 21:00 |
Union Magdalena |
- |
Real Cartagena |
Over 1.0 Goals in 1st Half |
81% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.75 goals, well above the line of 1.0. Home team has 70% of recent matches going Over 1.0 HT, away 60%, and away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away) combined with home's early scoring habit (90% overall and 70% at home score in 1st half) supports an open first half. Bookmaker mispricing mild (away GL_5 1.25) adds marginal edge. |
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