| 18-05-2026 10:00 |
FC Zorya Lugansk |
- |
Polissya Zhytomyr |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 2.85 (Zorya home avg 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded; Polissya away avg 1.8 scored, 0.9 conceded) exceeds 2.5 line by +0.35. Zorya's last 10 matches show 60% Over 2.5 (6/10), and Polissya's 50% (5/10) does not contradict. The shot-based match potential (6.65) also strongly supports Over. Bookmaker mispricing is low (home GL_5 0.35, away GL_5 1.30 mild), but quality gap (Polissya 3rd vs Zorya 8th) adds moderate Over signal. |
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| 18-05-2026 12:30 |
Defensor Sporting Reserves |
- |
Albion FC Reserves |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
74% |
Full-time expected total of 2.80 goals (home avg 1.90 at home, away concede 1.50 away; away avg 1.00 away, home concede 1.20 at home) edges just above the 2.75 line. Defensor Sporting Reserves have 70% of recent matches Over (7/10), Albion FC Reserves 60% (6/10). Home scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 home games. Home GL_5 of 1.50 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with the Over side. Structured for goals with both teams needing points, supporting a low-scoring trend but Over signal prevails. |
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| 18-05-2026 16:00 |
Puszcza Niepolomice |
- |
LKS Lodz |
Over 2.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected total goals from averages is 2.75 (1.60 home scored + 1.10 away conceded)/2 + (1.90 away scored + 0.90 home conceded)/2 = 2.75, above the 2.5 line. Both teams have 60% of their last 10 matches going Over 2.5, and the shot-based match potential (5.64) strongly favours goals. Away team's goal line mispricing (GL_5 1.50) adds further confidence for an Over outcome. |
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| 18-05-2026 17:00 |
Djurgarden |
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Sirius |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 3.55 (Djurgarden avg 2.60 at home, Sirius concede 1.10 away; Sirius avg 2.50 away, Djurgarden concede 0.90 at home) exceeds the line of 2.75. Sirius had 5/5 away matches over 2.5 (totals 4,5,3,12,3) and conceded 2+ in 3 of those 5, while bookmaker mispricing is high (home GL_5 1.95, away GL_5 1.90) adding edge. H2H saw 10 goals in the last meeting, confirming the over trend. |
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| 18-05-2026 17:00 |
Angelholm |
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Kristianstad FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time goals 3.05 (home avg 1.50, away avg 1.50, home conceded 1.70, away conceded 1.40) exceed the 2.75 line by 0.30. Away team conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 4 away matches (defensive fragility). Home team's goal line variance is 1.60 (accelerating mispricing), adding edge to Over. Likelihood data shows 65% over 2.5 goals. No H2H to contradict. |
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| 18-05-2026 17:05 |
IK Oddevold |
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Orebro SK |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals of 3.25 (home avg 1.60 scored, 2.20 conceded vs away avg 1.40 scored, 1.30 conceded) far exceeds the 2.5 line. IK Oddevold have gone Over 2.5 in all 5 of their last league matches, and home GL_5 mispricing is accelerating at 1.85, supporting the Over. Despite Orebro's 40% Over rate, the structural gap and home momentum provide strong value. |
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| 18-05-2026 17:30 |
AB Argir |
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Vikingur Gota |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
72% |
AB Argir has scored in the first half in 10 of their last 10 matches (100%), including all 4 home games. Expected first-half total (1.20) surpasses the line of 1.0, driven by home avg 0.80 scored and away conceded 0.30. H2H matches produced 3 and 1 first-half goals. Home team's GL_5 variance of 1.85 (accelerating from 1.25) signals persistent bookmaker mispricing aligning with Over. Despite Vikingur's poor first-half scoring away (3 of last 4 away without a 1st-half goal), AB Argir's consistent early output comfortably covers the line. |
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| 18-05-2026 18:00 |
Montevideo Wanderers Reserves |
- |
Club Atletico Progreso Reserves |
|
65% |
Montevideo Wanderers Reserves sit top of the table with 21 points, 12 ahead of Progreso (12th). At home, they have won 3 of 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 2, with 3 of those wins covering the -0.5 line. Common opponents analysis shows both teams beat Colon FC, and H2H in September 2025 saw Wanderers win 1-0 away. Progreso's away record is decent (2 wins in 3), but the quality gap and home advantage give Wanderers the edge. |
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| 18-05-2026 18:00 |
Racing Club de Montevideo Reserves |
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Torque Reserves |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals (Asian Goal Line) |
81% |
Expected total 3.10 goals from averages (Racing home 1.60 scored & 1.70 conceded, Torque away 1.40 scored & 1.50 conceded) exceeds the 2.75 line. Racing have gone Over 2.5 in 7/10 recent matches, Torque in 6/10. Bookmaker mispricing moderate for Racing (GL_5=1.70). Structural signal from Torque conceding 6.0 shots on target away, adding edge to Over. Confidence 81%. |
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| 18-05-2026 18:45 |
Waterford FC |
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Drogheda United |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 3.25 (home avg 1.2 goals scored + away avg 1.8 conceded averaged with away avg 1.4 goals + home avg 2.1 conceded) exceeds line 2.75. Drogheda away record: 5/5 last away matches over, conceding 2+ in 4/5. Both teams show accelerating market mispricing (home GL_5 1.80, away GL_5 2.05). H2H has 3/4 unders but is outweighed by strong structural and variance signals. |
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| 18-05-2026 19:15 |
HK Kopavogur |
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Njardvik |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total (3.70) exceeds the 3.0/3.5 line by 0.45 goals, calculated from home averaging 2.20 scored and 2.20 conceded at home, away averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded away. Home match history shows 6/10 matches with 4+ goals, and both H2H matches produced at least 3 goals. Bookmaker mispricing is severe: home GL_5 1.85 (strong, accelerating) and away GL_5 2.65 (severe, accelerating), both indicating the line underestimates goals. HK's strong home form (2-0-0, scoring 6 in 2 games) further supports the Over. |
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| 18-05-2026 19:15 |
Fylkir Reykjavik |
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IR Reykjavik |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals FT = (2.90+2.40)/2 + (2.00+1.20)/2 = 4.25, well above the 3.0/3.5 line. Fylkir home over 3.5 in 5/7 (71%) and IR away over 3.5 in 4/5 (80%). IR away conceded 2+ in all 5 away matches (defensive fragility). Home GL_5 of 1.50 (moderate, accelerating) adds confidence. Strong structural and historical support for Over. |
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| 18-05-2026 19:15 |
Throttur Reykjavik |
- |
Leiknir Reykjavik |
Over 3.25 Goals |
80% |
Expected total of 4.35 goals (home avg 2.60 at home + away avg conceded 2.40 away) well above the 3.25 line. Throttur have 70% of their last 10 home matches going over 3.25, and Leiknir concede 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches. The H2H recently ended 4-1 Throttur, further supporting an Over outcome. Bookmaker mispricing is low (GL_5 home 0.40, away 0.85), but structural quality gap and away defensive fragility provide strong Over edge. |
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| 18-05-2026 19:15 |
Grotta Seltjarnarnes |
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Afturelding |
Under 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is only 1.05 goals (home avg 1.10 HT, away avg 0.10 HT, conceded averages 0.40 and 0.50). Both teams have strong Under HT history: Grotta 6/7 (85.7%) Under, Afturelding 7/8 (87.5%) Under. Afturelding has failed to score in the 1st half in all 4 recent away matches. Away team GL_5 of 2.20 indicates significant bookmaker mispricing aligned with Under direction. |
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| 18-05-2026 21:30 |
Deportivo Maldonado |
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Danubio |
Over 2.5 Goals |
75% |
Deportivo Maldonado averages 1.50 goals at home and Danubio concedes 1.40 away, yielding an expected total of 2.55. Danubio's away matches have 80% (4/5) over 2.5 goals, and their defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away) combined with the quality gap (Maldonado 2nd, Danubio 11th) further support over. Home team's goal line mispricing (GL_5=1.25) aligns with the over direction. |
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