| 22-06-2026 10:15 |
Melbourne Victory NPL |
- |
Brunswick City |
Over 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.50 goals, above the effective line of 1.25. Brunswick City have conceded a 1st half goal in 5 of their last 6 away matches (83%), while Melbourne Victory NPL score in the 1st half in 70% of home games. Additionally, 66.7% of Brunswick's away matches have gone over the HT goal line, supporting an Over bet. The quality gap (5th vs 10th) and home side's early pressing add further structural support. |
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| 22-06-2026 15:00 |
RFS |
- |
Ogre United |
Over 1.5, 2.0 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
RFS averages 1.60 home 1st-half goals and Ogre concedes 1.30 away 1st-half, giving an expected total of 2.10 against the 1.75 line. RFS have gone over the line in 8 of their last 10 first halves, Ogre in 6 of 10. The quality gap (2nd vs 10th) and RFS's early attacking pressure further support an Over, with bookmaker mispricing mild (away GL_5 1.05). |
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| 22-06-2026 15:00 |
Dila Gori |
- |
FC Rustavi |
FC Rustavi +0.25 |
70% |
FC Rustavi sit 1st (32 pts, +7 GD) vs Dila Gori 7th (23 pts, -1 GD). Rustavi have won both H2H this season (1-0 away, 2-1 home) and cover the Asian Handicap in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Dila cover only 1 of their last 5. The market mispricing is limited but the structural quality gap and H2H dominance give Rustavi a clear edge. |
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| 22-06-2026 16:00 |
JK Tallinna Kalev II |
- |
JK Trans Narva II |
Over 4.0 Goals |
70% |
Expected total 4.10 is slightly above the 4.0 line, supported by home scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.1 at home while away scores 2.4 and concedes 1.5 on the road. Match potential (shot-based) estimates 9.13 goals, strongly favoring Over. Home team's GL_5 of 2.40 indicates severe bookmaker mispricing on their games, and the quality gap (9th vs 4th) plus both teams' need for points (relegation battle vs promotion race) create a structural Over signal. Although match history shows only 40-50% Over at this line, the variance and context outweigh the recent form. |
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| 22-06-2026 16:00 |
JK Viljandi Tulevik |
- |
JK Tammeka Tartu II |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Away team conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away, home scored 2+ in each of last 3 home. Expected 1st half total 2.75 (home avg 1.40, away avg 1.20) vs line 1.75. 80% of home and 70% of away 1st halves went over. Home GL_5=1.60 confirms bookmaker mispricing. |
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| 22-06-2026 17:00 |
Torpedo Kutaisi |
- |
FC Spaeri |
Over 2.75 Goals |
71% |
Expected goals FT: (1.70+1.20)/2 + (1.10+1.20)/2 = 2.60, slightly below line 2.75 but match potential (38.4/8.145=4.71) strongly supports Over. Home last 4 home matches: 3 of 4 Over (75%), away last 5 away: 3 of 5 Over (60%), H2H 2 of 3 Over (67%). Market pricing error is mild (home GL_5=1.35, away GL_5=1.15). Over-first philosophy applies with expected total within 0.15 of line, preferring Over. |
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| 22-06-2026 17:00 |
FK Smiltene/BJSS |
- |
Valmiera FC |
Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
81% |
Expected 1st-half total computed as (home HT scored 0.10 + away HT conceded 0.30)/2 + (away HT scored 0.50 + home HT conceded 1.30)/2 = 1.10, well below the 1.5 line. Valmiera's last 6 away matches produced 0,1,0,1,1,1 HT goals—all Under 1.5 (100%). Smiltene's 3 home HT matches had totals 0,4,1 (2 of 3 Under). The only H2H had 1 HT goal, supporting Under. Likelihood data shows 80% chance of Under 1.5 HT. Structural signals confirm low-scoring first halves for both teams, especially Valmiera's inability to exceed 1 HT goal away. |
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| 22-06-2026 17:00 |
Räppe GOIF |
- |
Hässleholms IF |
Under 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total just 2.75 (home 0.9+conceded 1.6, away 1.4+conceded 1.6) sits 0.75 below the 3.5 line. Home team's matches went under in 9/10 (90%), away side's in 6/10 (60%), and likelihood gives 75% chance of under 3.5. No Over market reached required 60%+ history threshold, making Under the strongest signal. |
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| 22-06-2026 17:30 |
Syrianska FC |
- |
Ragsveds IF |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.8 (Syrianska home avg 1.2 scored, 2.4 conceded; Ragsveds away avg 2.2 scored, 1.8 conceded) exceeds the 3.25 line by 0.55 goals. Syrianska's home matches went over 3.25 in 5/7 (71%), and Ragsveds' away matches in 2/3 (67%), with Ragsveds conceding 2+ goals in all 3 away games. Market pricing error is strong for Ragsveds (GL_5=2.65, accelerating), adding further edge to the Over. |
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