| 05-11-2026 00:00 |
Costa Rica Primera Division |
Puntarenas |
- |
AD San Carlos |
1st Half Over 4.0 Corners |
70% |
1st-half expected corners = (E+H)/2 + (G+F)/2 = (2.50+2.50)/2 + (2.50+2.60)/2 = 5.05, a +1.05 gap above the 4.0 line. Puntarenas's last 10 matches produced 1st-half corner totals of 6,4,5,4,6,6,4,5,5,6 — never below 4 (7 wins, 3 pushes, 0 losses), and the most recent H2H (30-Aug-26) delivered 5 first-half corners. San Carlos's games averaged 5.0 HT corners (5 of 10 over 4.0), and bookmaker corner-line mispricing is large (home AC error 3.70 and accelerating vs AC-10 of 2.40), confirming an undervalued first-half corners line. |
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| 05-11-2026 00:00 |
Puerto Rico Super Cup |
Ponce FC |
- |
Academia Quintana |
Over 2.75 Goals |
79% |
Expected full-time goals are 2.90: (Ponce home scored 1.70 + Academia away conceded 1.00)/2 + (Academia away scored 2.20 + Ponce home conceded 0.90)/2, which clears the 2.75 line. Ponce have gone over 2.75 in 7/10 recent matches and Academia in 8/10, while the two H2H totals were 4 and 3 goals. The away side's bookmaker pricing error is moderate at GL_5 1.65 and stable versus GL_10, supporting the Over; the 1st-half projection is only 1.25 and does not offer a stronger signal. |
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| 05-11-2026 01:00 |
El Salvador Apertura |
Municipal Limeno |
- |
Fuerte San Francisco |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time total is 3.15 goals: (1.60 home scored + 2.00 away conceded)/2 + (1.20 away scored + 1.50 home conceded)/2, giving a +0.65 gap over the 2.5 line. Both teams are 6/10 Over 2.5 in recent matches, and Fuerte San Francisco's away profile is structurally leaky: 2.00 goals conceded away, 5.90 shots on target conceded away, with last three totals of 7, 3 and 3 goals. H2H is a mild negative (2 of 3 under 2.5), but mutual-opponent goals average 2.925 and Municipal Limeno's GL_5 of 1.55 shows moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with the Over. |
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| 05-11-2026 01:00 |
El Salvador Apertura |
Municipal Limeno |
- |
Fuerte San Francisco |
Over 2.75 Goals |
74% |
Full-time expected total (1.60+2.00)/2 + (1.20+1.50)/2 = 1.80 + 1.35 = 3.15 goals, clearing the 2.75 line by 0.40; the shot-based cross-check (34.0 total shots / 5.90 shot-ratio = 5.77 match potential) also sits far above the line, confirming the Over. Both sides trend Over 2.5 at 6 of 10 recent matches, and Fuerte San Francisco's away profile is structurally leaky — 0 wins in 9 away, 17 conceded, conceding 2.14 goals with 5.0 shots-on-target against shared opponents (weak-defence signal). Municipal Limeno's home books misprice the total moderately (GL_5 1.55, direction aligned with Over), and the one venue-matched H2H at Limeno's ground finished 5-0, supporting goals despite two 0-2 results away at Fuerte's ground dragging the raw H2H % down to a mixed read. |
|
| 05-11-2026 01:05 |
Mexico Liga de Expansion |
Tlaxcala FC |
- |
Club Atletico La Paz |
Over 3.25 Goals |
74% |
Tlaxcala average 2.20 scored and 1.30 conceded at home, while La Paz average 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded away, giving a 3.65 expected total against the 3.25 line. Tlaxcala have gone over 3.25 in 6/10 previous matches and La Paz in 5/10, with the two H2H meetings neutral (2-2 and 2-0) and mutual-opponent goal volume at 3.53 supporting Over. Tlaxcala have also scored 2+ in each of their last five home league games, making the Over the strongest value despite the small H2H sample. |
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| 05-11-2026 10:00 |
AFC Champions League Two |
Kitchee |
- |
Phnom Penh Crown |
Over 3.0 Goals |
66% |
Expected total is 2.95 ((2.00+1.20)/2 + (1.40+1.30)/2), i.e. within 0.05 of the 3.0 line, so the Over-first tolerance rule applies; Kitchee have gone Over 3.0 in 6 of their last 10 matches (home games averaging 3.3 total goals, with 4-0 and 4-1 in their last two at Mong Kok) and Phnom Penh Crown's away matches also average 3.3 total goals with 5 of 10 Over 3.0 plus 2 pushes. Shot-based match potential (combined 24.2 shots against a 7.57 goals-per-shot ratio, ~3.2–6.4 depending on the doubling convention) clears the line, the opening line was 2.75 versus an expected 2.95 and Kitchee's GL_5 of 1.60 against a GL_10 of 1.78 (moderate, stabilising mispricing) points the same way, while the lone H2H (PPC 2-0) and the 1-game mutual-opponent sample are too small to weigh. Confidence: base 50% + gap 0% + home history (6/10 Over 3.0) +5% + away history (5/10, no contradiction) +0% + H2H neutral +0% + common opponents neutral (g=1) +0% + likelihood (Over 2.5 60%, Over 3.5 45%) +3% + market pricing error home +5% + away +0% + structural form momentum (4 goals in each of last two home games) +3% = 66%. |
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| 05-11-2026 11:00 |
Azerbaijan Division 1 |
Zaqatala |
- |
Moik Baku |
Over 3.25 Goals |
80% |
Expected-goals build: Zaqatala at home score 1.10 and concede 3.10 (4.20 total per home game); Moik Baku away score 1.90 and concede 1.50 (3.40 total), giving (1.10+3.10)/2 + (1.90+1.50)/2 = 2.10 + 1.70 = 3.80 expected goals against a 3.0/3.5 line (gap +0.55) — and the shot-based match potential of 6.33 ((6.4+12.8)x2 / 6.065) also clears the line. Zaqatala's last 10 show 9/10 over 2.5 and 6/10 over 3.5 (4-0, 3-0, 3-0, 6-0, 7-0 type blowouts against a 21-goals-conceded season; they have conceded 2+ in 9 of 10) and Moik Baku's last 8 show 4 over 3.5 including 1-9, 3-1, 3-0, 4-0. H2H is a single 2-1 (3 goals, neutral). Bookmaker mispricing is strong and pointing Over: GL_5 1.90 (home) and 2.30 (away) versus GL_10 of 1.80 and 1.70 — both accelerating, and the expected total sits above the opening 3.25 line. The only counterweight is the venue-matched mutual-opponents sample averaging just 2.85 goals total (-5%); otherwise the quality gap (3rd vs 9th, Moik scoring 12 in 6) plus Zaqatala's defensive collapse supports the Over. Confidence breakdown: Base 50 + gap +10 + home history +5 + away history +0 + H2H +0 + common opponents -5 + likelihood +3 + GL_5 home +8 + GL_5 away +8 + structural quality gap +5 = 84 raw, capped at the 82 standard tier ceiling (elevated 85 requires both histories at 70%+, not met), reported at 80 after reproducibility adjustment for the at-home conceded split. |
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| 05-11-2026 11:00 |
Azerbaijan Division 1 |
FK Karvan |
- |
Simal FK |
Over 3.0 Goals |
70% |
Expected total = (1.60 home scored + 2.10 away conceded)/2 + (1.80 away scored + 1.30 home conceded)/2 = 1.85 + 1.55 = 3.40, a +0.40 gap over the 3.0 line, and the shot-based check (47.0 total shots / 7.17 ratio) also clears the line. Simal's away defence is the structural driver: 2.10 goals conceded and 7.5 shots on target against per away game, with 3+ conceded in 3 of their last 5 away matches (4 at Sahdag Qusar, 3 at Zaqatala, 2 at Cebrayil), and they produced 5 of 10 matches over 3.0 (2 pushes) while Karvan's last 10 produced 3+ goals in 6 of 10 (4 landing exactly on 3, so push protection). Bookmaker mispricing on Simal is strong and accelerating (GL_5 2.40 vs GL_10 1.83) in the same direction as the Over, while Karvan's GL_5 sits at 1.00 (calibrated); no H2H and mutual opponents limited to 1 game each, so both are treated as neutral. |
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| 05-11-2026 12:15 |
AFC Champions League Two |
Svay Rieng FC |
- |
Tampines Rovers FC |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
74% |
1st-half expected goals = (1.30 home HT scored + 0.80 away HT conceded)/2 + (0.60 away HT scored + 0.40 home HT conceded)/2 = 1.05 + 0.50 = 1.55 vs the 1.25 line (+0.30 gap) — the only real gap on the card, since full-time expected 3.25 (1.90+1.50)/2+(1.70+1.40)/2 sits exactly on the 3.25 line and home FT history is only 2/5 over 3.25. Svay Rieng score 68% of their goals in the first half (13 of 19 minute-bucket goals) and Tampines concede 53% before the break (8 of 15), with last week's H2H producing 4 first-half goals in Svay's 5-1 away win; 1st-half totals across the two teams' last 10 relevant games read 2,0,2,0,2,3,0,1,2,2 → Over 1.25 in 6/10 (60% for BOTH sides). Bookmaker mispricing is severe and accelerating (GL_5 2.45 home vs GL_10 1.55; GL_5 2.20 away vs GL_10 1.68) and the direction (expected 1.55 > opening 1.25) aligns with Over: base 50 + gap +5 + home HT history +5 + away HT history +5 + H2H +0 (1 match, neutral) + likelihood +3 + pricing error +20 + structural (dominant side pressing early after 5-1 win) +5 = 93 raw → capped at 82 standard tier → calibrated to 74. Corners Over 9.5 rejected (expected 9.00 < line 9.5, H2H total only 5 corners) and AH -1.25 rejected (home covered only 1 of last 5 home games). |
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| 05-11-2026 12:15 |
AFC Champions League Two |
BG Pathum United |
- |
Tai Po |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
67% |
1st-half expected total = (1.00+0.90)/2 + (0.60+0.80)/2 = 1.65 against a 1.0/1.5 line (effective 1.25), a +0.40 gap — far larger than the full-time read (3.20 vs the 3.0/3.5 line = -0.05), and 9 of 10 recent matches for BOTH teams produced at least one first-half goal (BG Pathum 9/10 with 2+ in 4/10; Tai Po 9/10 with 2+ in 5/10), so the only full-loss scenario (0 HT goals) hit just 1 of 10 for each side. The lone H2H seven days ago was 0-3 at half-time (3 first-half goals), BG Pathum scores 57% of their goals before the break (4 in 0-15, 4 in 31-45) and concedes 67% before the break (6 in 16-30), while Tai Po's GL_5 of 1.85 vs GL_10 of 1.43 is accelerating and points over the opening line (opening 3.0, current 3.0/3.5), adding bookmaker-mispricing support. Scoring: base 50% + gap from line +8% + home HT history +0% (40% at 2+) + away HT history +0% (50% at 2+) + H2H HT +0% (1 match, neutral) + common opponents +0% (mutual_total 3.75 clears line but g=2 only) + market pricing error +4% (Tai Po GL_5 1.85 accelerating, single-team half adjustment) + structural early-scoring +5% = 67%; FT Over 3.25 scored only 64% (home team just 2/10 over 3.25) and no corner line is posted, so the 1st half is the strongest qualifying market. |
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| 05-11-2026 13:00 |
Slovenia Cup Women |
Olimpija Ljubljana Women |
- |
ZNK Radomlje Women |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is 3.80: (home scored 1.30 + away conceded 1.30)/2 + (away scored 2.60 + home conceded 2.40)/2; shot-based match potential is 6.69, both above the 3.0 line. Both teams show 7/10 Over 3.0 in recent matches, H2H is only 2 matches (0-1 and 6-1) so neutral, and mutual opponents average 6.64 total goals. Bookmaker mispricing is strong and accelerating (home GL_5 1.95 vs GL_10 1.60; away GL_5 2.15 vs GL_10 1.68), all aligned to Over; confidence breakdown: Base 50 + gap +15 + home history +8 + away history +8 + H2H +0 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +0 + GL_5 home +8 + GL_5 away +8 + structural +3 = 108 raw, capped at 82 standard ceiling (H2H <3 prevents elevated). |
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| 05-11-2026 13:25 |
Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Al Kholood |
- |
Al Khaleej Saihat |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Full-time expected goals = (1.60 home scored at home + 1.90 away conceded away)/2 + (1.40 away scored away + 2.50 home conceded at home)/2 = 1.75 + 1.95 = 3.70, a full 1.20 goals above the 2.5 line. Al Kholood's last five home matches all went Over 2.5 (0-3, 0-5, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2; 8/10 overall), while Al Khaleej's away games produced 5, 5, 2, 3 and 2 goals (60% over). H2H is unanimously Over (2-2, 2-3, 4-3 — 4, 5 and 7 goals) and the venue-matched common-opponents total is 3.30 goals (1.5+2.0+1.0+2.1)/2, both supporting Over. Structural Over signal: Al Khaleej conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games (4 at Al Ahli, 2 at Al Fateh, 3 at Neom), and home GL_5 of 1.90 vs GL_10 1.58 shows accelerating bookmaker mispricing on the goal line in the Over direction (away 1.80 vs 1.70 also accelerating). Corners expected 9.20 vs 9.5 line with only 40%/50% Over history, and AH is neutral on form, so the full-time goal line is the clear best value. Confidence: Base 50 + gap from line +15 (1.20 goals) + home history +10 (80%) + away history +0 (50%) + H2H +5 + common opponents +5 + GL_5 home +8 + GL_5 away +0 + structural +0 = 93% raw, capped at the 82% standard tier ceiling (away history below 70% blocks the elevated tier); adjusted to 78% for recent low-scoring draws in Al Khaleej's away form. |
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| 05-11-2026 15:00 |
Romania Liga 2 |
Chindia Targoviste |
- |
Gloria Popesti Leordeni |
Over 2.75 Goals |
80% |
Expected total is 3.95 (home 2.50 scored / 1.60 conceded at home; away 2.30 scored / 1.50 conceded away), a huge 1.20-goal gap above the 2.75 line. Both teams go Over 2.75 in 8 of their last 10 matches — Chindia's 3-2, 4-0, 3-2 and Gloria's 2-3, 3-4, 4-1 show consistent multi-goal games — and mutual opponents averaged 3.0 goals, while home match history is 80% and away match history is 80% over. The home side's market pricing error of 2.40 (GL_5, accelerating from 2.10 GL_10) confirms persistent Over mispricing in Chindia games, supporting the pick; H2H is empty so no contradiction applies. |
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| 05-11-2026 17:45 |
UEFA Europa League |
Real Sociedad |
- |
Lyon |
Over 10 Asian Corners |
68% |
Expected corners = (5.60+6.30)/2 + (4.60+5.00)/2 = 5.95+4.80 = 10.75, clearing the 10.0 line by 0.75. Real Sociedad are 6/10 over 10 corners (home games alone: 5,17,13,13,12 = 4/5 over) and Lyon are 5/10 over 10 with 2 pushes at exactly 10, including away totals of 11, 20, 11 and 10 in their last five road games, so both sides clear the 60%/50% history bar. Structural support comes from Lyon conceding 6.3 corners per away game (the highest of the four corner inputs) against Real Sociedad's 5.6 generated at home, and corner-line mispricing is high and accelerating for both teams (AC_5 3.30 for each, home AC_5 3.30 vs AC_10 3.70), signalling unreliable opening corner lines in the Over direction. Goal line Over 3.0 was inferior: expected 3.35 but only 4/10 and 3/10 matches reached 4+ goals with 8 of 20 totals landing exactly on 3 (push), and the mutual-opponent goal volume of 2.84 sits below the line. |
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| 05-11-2026 17:45 |
UEFA Europa League |
Lillestrom |
- |
Viktoria Plzen |
Over 4.5 1st Half Corners |
82% |
First-half corners project to 5.95 against a 4.5 line: Lillestrom average 3.30 HT corners at home and concede 2.80, while Plzen average 2.80 HT corners away and concede 3.00. Both teams have gone over 4.5 first-half corners in 8 of their last 10 matches, with Lillestrom producing recent HT totals of 8, 10, 8 and 8 and Plzen repeatedly hitting 8. The Europa League context has both sides on 0 points and needing a result, supporting an open, high-tempo game; the corner market pricing error is also high with AC_5 at 2.60 for both teams. |
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| 05-11-2026 20:00 |
UEFA Europa League |
Bayer Leverkusen |
- |
Marseille |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Full-time expected total is 3.70 — (2.50 home goals scored + 1.70 away goals conceded)/2 + (1.70 away goals scored + 1.50 home goals conceded)/2 = 2.10 + 1.60 — a +0.45 gap over the 3.0/3.5 (3.25) line, and the shot-based match potential check (33.1 combined shots / 8.36 goals-to-shots ratio) also clears the line. Leverkusen have scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home games (2, 5, 2) with a 2.50 home goals average, while Marseille have conceded 2+ in 7 of their last 10 away matches (incl. 4 at Besiktas, 3 at Nantes, 5 at PSG, 2 at Monaco twice) and concede 6.2 shots on target per away game — the explicit weak-goalkeeper/high-shots structural Over signal. Bookmaker mispricing is severe on Marseille's games: GL_5 2.60 vs GL_10 2.08 (accelerating), with the Leverkusen side at 1.50/1.58, both pointing in the Over direction; the 1st-half line is also Over-friendly (expected 1.70 vs 1.50, Leverkusen 6 of 10 first halves over 1.5) but carries a smaller 0.20 gap, so the full-time line is the stronger value. Scoring breakdown: base 50% + gap 0.45 (1.8 quarter-steps) +9% + home history +0% + away history +0% + H2H +0% (empty) + common opponents +0% (null) + likelihood +0% (neutral) + GL_5 home +5% + GL_5 away +12% + structural (Marseille away defensive fragility) +5% + form momentum +3% = 84%, capped at the standard tier ceiling of 82% (elevated tier not reached as the gap is 0.45, under the 0.5 requirement). |
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| 05-11-2026 21:00 |
Honduras Liga Nacional |
Genesis de Comayagua |
- |
Real Espana |
1st Half Over 1.0 Goals |
65% |
1st-half expected goals = (0.70+0.40)/2 + (1.00+0.60)/2 = 0.55 + 0.80 = 1.35, clearing the 1.0 line by 0.35, and both sides' 1st-half likelihood shows 70% over 0.5 and 50% over 1.5, with the whole-number 1.0 line giving push protection at exactly one goal. Real Espana score 1.00 1st-half goals away (29% of their goals arrive in the first 15 minutes) while conceding only 0.40, facing a Genesis side averaging 0.70 scored / 0.60 conceded in 1st halves at home; 5 of 10 recent 1st halves for each team finished over 1.0 with two additional pushes apiece. Bookmaker mispricing is elevated and accelerating on both sides (GL_5 1.90 home / 1.70 away vs GL_10 1.30 / 1.10), reinforcing the Over, while the full-time 2.75 line is rejected because Real Espana's matches are only 40% over that number with a low-scoring H2H (2,3,3,1). |
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