| 08-09 18:45 |
Watford
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2.80 +0.30 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (0.80 + 1.60 + 1.20 + 2.00) / 2 = 2.80 Error: 2.80 - Goal line 2.50 = +0.30 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
122 113 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
0.80 | 1.60 1.20 | 2.00 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
19.00 | 8.25 8.33 | 9.70 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
15.20 | 13.20 10.00 | 19.40 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.40 | 4.20 3.20 | 5.60 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
47.40 | 47.00 36.80 | 54.60 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 08-09 18:45 |
Southampton
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+0.86 +0.36 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 12.44 Heim: 12.44 / ((5.93 + 6.00) / 2) = 2.09 Heim: 12.44 / ((9.29 + 11.00) / 2) = 1.23 Diff: 2.09 - 1.23 = +0.86 Error: +0.86 + AH line -0.50 = +0.36 |
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3.60 +0.85 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.80 + 1.40 + 1.20 + 1.80) / 2 = 3.60 Error: 3.60 - Goal line 2.75 = +0.85 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
320 203 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.80 | 1.40 1.20 | 1.80 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
5.93 | 9.29 11.00 | 6.00 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
16.60 | 13.00 13.20 | 10.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
5.00 | 4.60 5.80 | 5.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
53.00 | 32.20 39.20 | 46.60 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 08-09 18:45 |
Blackburn
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2.10 -0.40 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.20 + 1.60 + 1.00 + 0.40) / 2 = 2.10 Error: 2.10 - Goal line 2.50 = -0.40 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
032 302 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.20 | 1.60 1.00 | 0.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
11.00 | 8.38 13.20 | 32.00 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
13.20 | 13.40 13.20 | 12.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.40 | 4.40 4.40 | 3.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
53.40 | 40.40 43.00 | 46.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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