| 12-05-2026 16:00 |
Riga FC |
- |
FK Auda |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.90 goals (Home avg 3.20 at home + Away conceded 1.10 away averaged with Away scored 2.20 away + Home conceded 1.30 at home) exceeds line of 3.0 by 0.90. Riga's last 10 matches saw 60% Over 3.0, and FK Auda's away record shows 30% Over, but both teams average 3.2 and 2.2 goals per game respectively. H2H over 4 matches yielded 2 Over and 2 exactly 3, showing mixed signals. Market pricing error is moderate (Riga GL_5 1.65, Auda 1.55), both trending upward, indicating the line may underestimate goals. Despite away history, the expected total and variance support Over. |
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| 12-05-2026 16:00 |
Viking FK Women |
- |
Haugesund Women |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
81% |
Expected 1st half total of 2.00 (home 1.30 + away conceded 0.90 averaged with away 1.10 + home conceded 0.70) exceeds the 1.25 line by 0.75. Home first-half Over rate is 75% (3/4 home matches) and away first-half Over rate is 75% (3/4 away matches), both strongly supporting the Over. Bookmaker mispricing on full-time goal line is high (home GL_5=2.10, away=1.65), indicating systemic underestimation of goals in this matchup. |
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| 12-05-2026 16:20 |
Al Kholood |
- |
Al Okhdood |
Over 2.75 Goals |
80% |
Expected total 3.30 goals (home avg 1.30 scored at home + away avg 2.20 conceded away averaged with away avg 0.90 scored away + home avg 2.20 conceded at home) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.55 goals. Home team Al Kholood has 4/5 (80%) home matches over 2.75, and away team Al Okhdood has 3/5 (60%) away matches over. Crucially, Al Okhdood have conceded 2+ goals in all 5 away matches (defensive fragility). Match potential (shot-based) of 4.30 also supports over. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.35 home, 1.25 away), but the structural signals are strong. |
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| 12-05-2026 17:00 |
Djurgardens Women |
- |
Hammarby Women |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.80, calculated from Djurgardens' home HT averages (1.10 scored, 0.70 conceded) and Hammarby's away HT averages (1.30 scored, 0.50 conceded), exceeding the 1.5 line. Djurgardens have 60% of recent home matches going Over 1.5 in the first half, while both teams show high early scoring rates (70-80% likelihood). Hammarby's attacking strength and the quality gap add structural support for early goals. |
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| 12-05-2026 17:00 |
IFK Varnamo |
- |
Orebro SK |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total from averages is 3.15 (home 1.60 scored + 2.00 conceded at home, away 1.30 scored + 1.40 conceded away), well above the 2.75 line. Varnamo's last 10 home matches saw 90% over this line, and Orebro's last 10 away matches 60% over. Home team's GL_5 of 1.70 indicates accelerating bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. Both teams are level on points in the table, likely to push for goals. |
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| 12-05-2026 17:00 |
Landskrona BoIS |
- |
Norrby IF |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.35 goals (home avg 1.30 scored + away avg 1.60 conceded /2 = 1.45, plus away avg 2.00 scored + home avg 1.80 conceded /2 = 1.90) comfortably above the line of 2.5. Both teams have 60% Over in recent matches (6/10 each). Away team's GL_5 of 1.50 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing that aligns with the Over direction. No H2H data to contradict. Structural signals are neutral but the numbers strongly favour goals. |
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| 12-05-2026 18:00 |
Real Betis |
- |
Elche |
Over 2.75 Goals |
80% |
Expected total goals 3.05 (home avg 1.80 scored at home + away avg 1.60 conceded away → 1.70, away avg 1.40 scored away + home avg 1.30 conceded at home → 1.35) exceeds the 2.75 line. Real Betis home matches went Over in 3/5 (60%), Elche away matches Over in 5/6 (83%). Quality gap (Betis 7th home vs Elche 20th away) supports attacking pressure. Home team GL_5=1.65 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing accelerating in Over direction. First-half expected 1.50 vs line 1.25 also favors Over, but full-time confidence is higher at 80%. |
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| 12-05-2026 18:00 |
Real Betis |
- |
Elche |
Over 2.75 Goals |
78% |
Expected total goals 3.05 (Betis home scored 1.80, conceded 1.30; Elche away scored 1.40, conceded 1.60) exceeds the 2.75 line, with Betis home (60%) and Elche away (83%) records supporting Under. Accelerating market mispricing for Betis (GL_5 1.65 vs 1.38) adds edge, and likelihood data shows 65% chance of over 2.5 goals. |
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| 12-05-2026 18:45 |
Kilmarnock |
- |
Dundee |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total goals 3.15 (home avg 1.50 scored/1.50 conceded, away avg 1.70 scored/1.60 conceded) exceeds line 2.75. Kilmarnock home history 60% Over, Dundee away history 75% Over, and H2H 75% Over (3 of 4 matches). Relegation battle and away defensive fragility (Dundee conceded 2+ in 3 of last 4 away) reinforce Over. Bookmaker mispricing is low (GL_5 0.80 for both), but structural factors produce confidence at 78%. |
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| 12-05-2026 18:45 |
Clyde |
- |
Hamilton |
Over 2.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected total of 3.05 goals (from Clyde's 1.60 avg home goals vs Hamilton's 1.50 avg away conceded, plus Hamilton's 1.60 avg away goals vs Clyde's 1.40 avg home conceded) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.30. Hamilton's last 5 away matches produced over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, and Clyde have scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home games. Market pricing error is low (GL_5 1.00 and 0.70) but the structural signals support an Over bet. |
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| 12-05-2026 19:00 |
Catanzaro |
- |
Avellino |
Over 2.0, 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Catanzaro's home averages (2.0 scored, 1.9 conceded) and Avellino's away averages (1.3 scored, 0.9 conceded) yield an expected total of 3.05, well above the 2.0/2.5 line. Catanzaro has seen Over in 80% of their last 5 home matches, and strong bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 = 2.00, accelerating) supports Over. Additionally, Catanzaro have scored 2+ in their last 3 home games, reinforcing the Over trend. |
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| 12-05-2026 21:00 |
Union Magdalena |
- |
Real Cartagena |
Over 1.0 Goals in 1st Half |
81% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.75 goals, well above the line of 1.0. Home team has 70% of recent matches going Over 1.0 HT, away 60%, and away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away) combined with home's early scoring habit (90% overall and 70% at home score in 1st half) supports an open first half. Bookmaker mispricing mild (away GL_5 1.25) adds marginal edge. |
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