| 24-05-2026 14:00 |
Panevezys |
- |
Banga Gargzdai |
Over 2.5 Goals |
66% |
Expected full-time goals calculated at 2.40 (home avg 1.40 + conceded 1.20, away avg 1.40 + conceded 0.80) is just below the 2.5 line, but match history shows 60% of Panevezys and 70% of Banga Gargzdai recent matches have gone Over 2.5. Additionally, Banga's GL_5 of 1.65 indicates significant bookmaker mispricing in their matches, accelerating from their GL_10 of 1.40, suggesting the opening line underestimates goal totals. H2H is mixed (1 Over in 3), but the strong recent trends and variance edge favour the Over. |
|
| 24-05-2026 14:00 |
Bodo/Glimt |
- |
SK Brann |
1st Half Over 1.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected 1st half goals 1.85 (home 0.8+0.6/2=0.7, away 1.4+0.9/2=1.15) exceed the 1.5 line by 0.35. SK Brann's away 1st half history is very strong (5/6 Over 1.5, 83%), and Bodo/Glimt's home GL_5 error is 2.05 (severe mispricing, accelerating). Additionally, Brann has conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. The high-tempo Norway Eliteserien and quality gap (Bodo top half) further support an early Over. |
|
| 24-05-2026 14:00 |
Pardubice Women |
- |
Prague Raptors Women |
Over 3.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected total of 3.90 from (1.70+0.90)/2 + (2.70+2.50)/2 surpasses the 3.5 line. Pardubice have 75% of recent away matches (3 of 4) going Over 3.5, while Prague Raptors have 60% (3 of 5) away matches. Severe home team goal line mispricing (GL_5=2.25) indicates consistent underestimation by bookmakers. |
|
| 24-05-2026 14:00 |
Parnu JK Vaprus |
- |
FC Levadia Tallinn |
FC Levadia Tallinn -1.5 (Asian Handicap) |
72% |
Levadia (1st, 30 pts) have a 14-point lead over Vaprus (6th, 16 pts). Levadia covered the -1.5 line in 4 of their last 5 away matches (wins by 2+ goals each time), while Vaprus lost and failed to score at home in recent defeats to Harju and Trans. Although H2H is mixed (1 cover in 4), the structural quality gap and clear form advantage support a strong away win by multiple goals. |
|
| 24-05-2026 14:30 |
Wieczysta Krakow |
- |
Chrobry Glogow |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total of 3.00 goals (home avg 2.10 at home + away conceded 1.30 away, away scored 1.50 away + home conceded 1.10 at home) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.25. Both teams' market pricing errors are high and accelerating (home GL_5 2.40, away GL_5 1.60) indicating the bookmaker consistently underestimates goals in their matches. Despite poor recent form (only 20% of Wieczysta home matches and 25% of Chrobry away matches going Over 2.5), the structural edge from the expected total and severe mispricing favours the Over. |
|
| 24-05-2026 14:30 |
Stal Mielec |
- |
Polonia Bytom |
Over 1.0,1.5 1st Half Goals |
69% |
Expected 1st half total of 1.70 goals (Stal home avg 1.30 scored, 0.90 conceded; Polonia away avg 0.80 scored, 0.40 conceded) sits well above the 1.25 Asian line. Stal Mielec's 1st half matches have gone over 1.25 in 8 of 10 (80%), demonstrating a strong early scoring pattern. While Polonia's 1st half over rate is only 30%, the combined expected output and Stal's home dominance provide sufficient edge. No H2H data contradicts this direction. |
|
| 24-05-2026 14:30 |
Znicz Pruszków |
- |
Ruch Chorzow |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 3.05 goals based on (1.30+1.00)/2 + (1.70+2.10)/2 exceeds line 2.75 by 0.30. Znicz have 7/10 home matches Over 2.75, Ruch 5/10 away. Home GL_5 error 1.80 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. Quality gap (17th vs 5th) and Znicz conceding 2.1 goals per home game support goals. H2H (1-2) also Over. |
|
| 24-05-2026 14:30 |
LKS Lodz |
- |
Gornik Leczna |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.00 (from (1.90+1.70)/2 + (1.20+1.20)/2) exceeds line 2.75, with LKS Lodz seeing 80% of home matches go Over 2.5. Gornik Leczna's away defensive fragility (3 of last 5 away matches conceding 2+) and the quality gap between 6th and 16th support an Over. Market pricing error is mild (home GL_5 1.30) so no strong mispricing edge. |
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| 24-05-2026 14:30 |
Malmo FF |
- |
Vasteras SK |
Over 2.5 Goals |
70% |
Expected total goals of 3.30 (Malmo's 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded at home, Vasteras' 1.10 scored and 2.00 conceded away) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.55 goals. Both teams have 60% of their last 10 matches going over 2.5 goals, and Vasteras' away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games) further supports the Over. Strong bookmaker mispricing on Malmo (GL_5 = 2.20, accelerating) adds confidence to the Over bet. |
|
| 24-05-2026 15:00 |
SV Eberau |
- |
SK Pama |
Under 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 2.30 (home avg 1.50 scored, 0.90 conceded; away avg 1.40 scored, 0.80 conceded) is well below the 3.0 line. Match history strongly supports Under: SV Eberau have gone Under in all 3 home matches, and SK Pama have gone Under in 3 of 4 away matches (75%). With low bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 0.60, away GL_5 1.20) aligning directionally, confidence is 82%. |
|
| 24-05-2026 15:00 |
Sandvikens IF |
- |
Landskrona BoIS |
Over 2.5 Goals |
77% |
Expected total (2.95) exceeds the line (2.5) by 0.45 goals, calculated from home averages (scored 1.30, conceded 1.80) and away averages (scored 1.20, conceded 1.60). Sandvikens have 80% of their last 10 matches going Over 2.5, while Landskrona have 60%, both supporting the Over. H2H is neutral (1 Over in 2 matches), and bookmaker mispricing is low (home GL_5 1.10, away GL_5 1.00), so confidence is moderate at 77%. |
|
| 24-05-2026 15:00 |
BKV Elore SC |
- |
Monori SE |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.65 (home avg 1.90 + away conceded 1.40)/2 + (away avg 2.20 + home conceded 1.80)/2 far exceeds 2.75 line. BKV Elore hit Over in 8/9 (89%) recent matches and Monori in 6/9 (67%). H2H produced 4 goals. Monori's bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 2.10) signals strong edge for goals, combined with quality gap as Monori push for promotion. |
|
| 24-05-2026 15:00 |
Budapest Honved II |
- |
Csepel FC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 3.40 goals (home avg 1.00 + away conceded 1.90 over 2 + away avg 2.20 + home conceded 1.70 over 2) exceeds the 3.0 line. Csepel's away history shows 60% of matches over 3.0, and their last 5 away matches all went over (100% 1st half over 1.25). Away team's GL_5 mispricing of 2.45 (strong, accelerating) and defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away) further support the Over. Home GL_5 of 1.55 adds moderate mispricing edge. |
|
| 24-05-2026 15:00 |
Szegedi VSE |
- |
Szeged-Csanad Grosics II |
Over 3.25 Goals |
70% |
Expected total goals of 3.55 (home 1.60 scored at home, away 1.10 conceded away, away 1.20 scored away, home 3.20 conceded at home) exceeds the 3.25 line. Szegedi VSE has severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=2.10, accelerating), and the away side has conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away games. The only H2H saw 6 goals, further supporting an Over outcome. |
|
| 24-05-2026 15:00 |
Pecsi MFC |
- |
Penzugyor SE |
Over 3.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected total 3.75 goals (Pecsi avg 2.9 at home, Penzugyor concede 2.3 away, plus away scoring and home conceding) exceeds the 3.5 line. Home team scored 2+ in each of last 3 home matches, while Penzugyor's away defense is weak (conceded 4 and 2 in recent away games). Likelihood data shows 55% probability of over 3.5, and home market mispricing trend (GL_10=1.88) suggests the line may be slightly low. |
|
| 24-05-2026 15:00 |
Gyirmot SE |
- |
Komarom VSE |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected goals 4.0 (home avg 3.50 + away conceded 1.40 = 4.90/2 = 2.45 plus away scored 2.20 + home conceded 0.90 = 3.10/2 = 1.55) well above line 3.0. Gyirmot went Over 3 in all 4 recent home matches (4-0, 10-0, 3-2, 2-2). Komarom's GL_5 of 2.60 signals accelerating bookmaker mispricing, and Gyirmot's dominant home attack (avg 3.5 goals per game) adds structural confidence. |
|
| 24-05-2026 15:00 |
Diosgyori VTK II |
- |
FC Hatvan |
Over 3.25 Goals |
68% |
Expected total goals 3.65 (home avg 1.4 + away conceded 2.8 /2 + away avg 1.1 + home conceded 2.0 /2) exceeds line 3.25. Match potential (shot-based expected goals 5.70) strongly supports Over. Away team FC Hatvan concedes 2.8 goals per away match, and both teams have porous defenses (home concedes 2.0 at home). Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.30 home, 1.00 away) but the structural imbalance and high shot volume suggest value on Over. |
|
| 24-05-2026 15:00 |
Stade Marocain Du Rabat |
- |
WAF Widad Fes |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
69% |
Expected total of 2.20 goals (home avg 1.10 at home + away avg 1.30 away) exceeds the 1.75 line. Home team has 67% of last 6 home matches Over, away team 67% of last 3 away matches Over (70% overall). H2H neutral (only 1 match, 0-0), and mild bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 1.05) offers no strong edge against the Over. |
|
| 24-05-2026 17:25 |
Al Naser SC |
- |
Al Kuwait SC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.85 (home avg 2.10 scored, away concede 1.50; away avg 2.80 scored, home concede 1.30) vs line 3.0; away team has 6/10 (60%) away matches over 3.0; quality gap (1st vs 8th) supports attacking game; away GL_5 1.80 (accelerating mispricing) adds edge. |
|
| 24-05-2026 17:25 |
Al Naser SC |
- |
Al Kuwait SC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected FT total of 3.85 (home avg 2.10 scored + away avg 1.50 conceded = 3.60/2=1.80; away avg 2.80 scored + home avg 1.30 conceded = 4.10/2=2.05; sum 3.85) exceeds the 3.0 line by 0.85 goals. Al Kuwait SC (1st, 39 pts) dominates Al Naser SC (8th, 15 pts) and has 60% of recent away matches over 3.0 goals, while bookmaker mispricing on Kuwait (GL_5=1.80, accelerating) adds further edge to the Over. |
|
| 24-05-2026 17:30 |
IMT Novi Belgrade |
- |
FK Backa Topola |
Over 1.0 1st Half Goals |
70% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.30 (home 0.30 scored + 0.40 conceded, away 1.20 scored + 0.70 conceded) vs line 1.0. Away team FK Backa Topola has 80% of their last 10 matches going Over 1.0 in the 1st half, including all 4 recent away matches. Home team IMT has 50% Over in 1st half, not actively contradicting. The strong away attacking form (averaging 1.2 goals away) supports Over, and the away team's overall goal line mispricing (GL_5=1.95) indicates the market consistently underestimates their goal output. |
|
| 24-05-2026 17:30 |
IMT Novi Belgrade |
- |
FK Backa Topola |
Over 2.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 2.80 (home 1.20 + away 2.20 / 2 + conceded averages 1.10) clears the 2.5 line. Away team (FK Backa Topola) has 90% of last 10 matches over 2.5, and their GL_5 market mispricing is 1.95 (accelerating from 1.73 GL_10), strongly supporting Over. Home team's low 30% over rate is outweighed by away's attacking dominance and the systemic bookmaker underestimation of away goals. |
|
| 24-05-2026 18:00 |
Deportivo Moron |
- |
CA Estudiantes Caseros |
Over 1.75 Goals |
73% |
Expected total goals is 1.95 (home avg 1.20 at home + away conceded 0.80, away avg 0.90 away + home conceded 1.00), above the 1.75 line. Both teams show 60% Over in their respective home/away roles last 5 matches. Structural quality gap (Moron 2nd, Estudiantes 11th) supports Over, and H2H (1-1) also went over. Market mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.40), adding slight edge. |
|
| 24-05-2026 18:00 |
Montevideo Wanderers |
- |
Deportivo Maldonado |
Over 2.25 Goals |
81% |
Expected total of 2.70 goals (home avg 1.20 scored, 1.30 conceded; away avg 1.70 scored, 1.20 conceded) exceeds the 2.25 line by 0.45. Home team has 70% Over (7/10) and away 60% Over (6/10) recently, while away defensive fragility shows 3 of last 5 away matches conceding 2+ goals. Mild market mispricing (home GL_5=1.30) adds slight edge, pushing confidence to 81%. |
|
| 24-05-2026 19:00 |
Ferro Carril Oeste |
- |
Central Norte |
Over 0.5, 1.0 Goals 1st Half |
70% |
Expected first-half total (0.85) slightly exceeds the 0.75 line. Both teams show 60% first-half Over rates in their last 10 matches (6/10 each). Home team's GL_5 of 1.60 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing toward goals, and the quality gap (Ferro 5th vs Central Norte 16th) adds structural Over support. Likelihood data (55% for Over 0.5) aligns, giving 70% confidence. |
|
| 24-05-2026 20:00 |
FC San Nicolas |
- |
SV Caravel |
Over 4.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.83 from home avg 1.33 + away conceded 2.40 and away avg 2.60 + home conceded 3.33. Home 75% Over (6/8), away 67% Over (6/9). Away's GL_5 of 2.10 (>1.8) and accelerating trend confirms bookmaker mispricing. H2H produced 6 goals. |
|
| 24-05-2026 21:00 |
Colon |
- |
Club Atletico Mitre |
Over 8.5 Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners (8.45) is just below the line (8.5) but Over is preferred per philosophy. Both teams have 60% of last 10 matches going Over 8.5 (Colon 6/10, Mitre 6/10). Quality gap (Colon 1st in Group A, Mitre 9th) supports sustained home pressure. Bookmaker mispricing is severe for home corners (AC_5=3.80, accelerating) and strong for away (AC_5=2.50), adding significant edge. Only H2H match had 9 corners, confirming the trend. |
|
| 24-05-2026 22:00 |
San Martin de Tucuman |
- |
CA Atlanta |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
81% |
Expected full-time goals from averages is 1.85, above the 1.75 line, and match potential is 4.31, strongly supporting Over. San Martin's home matches went Over in 75% (3/4) and Atlanta's away matches in 80% (4/5), with the only H2H also Over (4-0). Home team's goal-line mispricing (GL_5=1.50, accelerating) adds further edge. |
|
| 24-05-2026 22:00 |
Montego Bay Utd |
- |
Mount Pleasant FA |
Mount Pleasant FA 0 (Asian Handicap) |
72% |
Montego Bay Utd at home average 2.5 goals scored but only 1.5 conceded, while Mount Pleasant away average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, yielding an expected FT total of 3.40 goals vs the 2.0 line. However, the away team’s match history shows only 25% of their away games going Over 2.0 (1 of 4), actively contradicting the Over and disqualifying it per the requirement that the other team be at least 50%+ aligned. The HT goal line also fails for the same reason. In Asian Handicap, Mount Pleasant are top of the table (74 pts vs 71) and have dominant AH form (4-1 in last 5) plus a perfect 2-0 H2H record (both wins by 1-goal margins), giving them the edge at pick’em odds of 1.90. |
|
| 24-05-2026 22:00 |
Paradise SC |
- |
Brittons Hill |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected total 3.70 (Paradise 2.60 at home, Brittons 1.40 conceded away; Brittons 1.90 scored away, Paradise 1.50 conceded home) exceeds the 3.25 line by 0.45. Brittons Hill have conceded 2+ goals in 4/5 away matches (80%), a strong structural Over signal. Paradise SC's home goals average (2.6) and bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=1.80, accelerating) further support the Over. Historical home/away counts show mixed but overall tendency leans over based on averages and defensive fragility. |
|
| 24-05-2026 22:00 |
SV Estrella |
- |
SV River Plate |
Over 4.0 Goals |
74% |
Expected total (4.70) derived from home avg scored 1.70 + away conceded 2.30 and away scored 2.00 + home conceded 3.40, yielding a 0.70 goal gap above the 4.0 line. Home team has severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=2.55, accelerating) adding 6% edge. Away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away) supports Over. Despite weak match history (33% home, 37.5% away over 4.0), the structural and variance signals justify the Over pick. |
|
| 24-05-2026 23:00 |
San Diego Wave Women |
- |
Orlando Pride Women |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
72% |
Expected total goals 2.90 (San Diego 1.70 at home + Orlando 1.60 conceded away averaged with Orlando 1.40 away + San Diego 1.10 conceded at home) exceeds the effective line of 2.75. Both teams show 60% Over in their last 5 matches, and H2H (1-2) also went Over. Orlando conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches (defensive fragility) and their GL_5 variance of 1.95 (accelerating from 1.45) indicates persistent bookmaker mispricing on the Over side. |
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