| 07-05-2026 18:00 |
Al Shabab Riyadh |
- |
Al-Nassr Riyadh |
Over 3.5 Goals |
76% |
Al-Nassr average 2.90 goals away while Al Shabab concede 2.00 at home, giving an expected total of 3.50. Al-Nassr's last 6 away matches saw Over 3.5 in 83% and H2H (3/4) supports Over. Structural factors (quality gap, title race motivation) reinforce the Over. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate (GL_5=1.50 for Al-Nassr). Confidence 76%. |
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| 07-05-2026 18:15 |
USFAS Bamako |
- |
FC Diarra |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected total goals 2.05 (home avg 1.60 + away concede 0.50 vs away avg 1.10 + home concede 0.90) exceeds the 1.75 line. USFAS Bamako's last 10 matches show 70% Over 1.75, and head-to-head is 4/4 Over. Home team's GL_5 variance of 1.75 indicates market mispricing toward goals, adding edge. |
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| 07-05-2026 19:00 |
Aston Villa |
- |
Nottm Forest |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.75 goals (home avg 1.80 + away conceded 0.50 averaged with away scored 2.10 + home conceded 1.10) vs line 2.5. Aston Villa's last 6 home matches: 4/6 Over (66.7%). Nottm Forest's last 5 away matches: 4/5 Over (80%). H2H split 2-2 neutral. Bookmaker mispricing high (home GL_5 1.75, away GL_5 1.80, both accelerating) adds edge. Quality gap (5th vs 16th) supports Over. |
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| 07-05-2026 19:00 |
SC Freiburg |
- |
Braga |
Under 10.0 Asian Corners |
81% |
Expected total corners is 7.75 (Freiburg home avg 2.80 and concede 5.10; Braga away avg 4.10 and concede 3.50), well below the 10.0 line. Both teams show 75% of recent matches under 10 corners (Freiburg 3/4 home, Braga 3/4 away), and the H2H match produced only 4 corners, reinforcing the under trend. High corner variance for both teams (home GL_5 2.90, away GL_5 2.50) suggests the line may be mispriced, adding further edge to the under. |
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| 07-05-2026 21:00 |
San Antonio FC Cotacachi |
- |
Vinotinto Ecuador |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
Expected 1st half total 1.05 goals (home 0.50, away 0.50) vs line 0.75, gap +0.30. Both teams have shown consistent 1st half over patterns: San Antonio's last 3 home 1st halves all over 0.75 (1-1, 1-1, 1-0), Vinotinto's last 3 away 1st halves all over 0.75 (0-1, 1-0, 1-1). H2H nonexistent, market mispricing mild (GL_5 home 1.05, away 1.20). Structural context open due to promotion race. Confidence 75%. |
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| 07-05-2026 21:00 |
Jaguares de Cordoba |
- |
Real Soacha Cundinamarca |
Real Soacha Cundinamarca +1 Asian Handicap |
68% |
Real Soacha covered the +1 handicap in all of their last 5 away matches (3 draws, 2 losses by 1) and both H2H results (a draw and a 1-goal loss) also cover. Jaguares have only covered -1 once in their last 5 home games, while Soacha's away defensive record (1.30 conceded) and scoring pattern (1.00 scored) suggest a tight contest. The Asian Handicap line -1 appears overstated given the recent form and head-to-head evidence, offering value on the away side. |
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| 07-05-2026 21:30 |
CD Cacahuatique Reserves |
- |
CD FAS Reserves |
Under 2.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 1.95 goals (home avg 1.10, away conceded 0.70; away avg 1.20, home conceded 0.90) is 0.30 below the 2.25 line. Home team's last 10 matches have 70% under this line (7/10), away team 80% under (8/10), and H2H is 75% under (3/4). Away team GL_5 variance of 2.00 (strong mispricing, accelerating from 1.85) adds edge to the Under. Both teams show low scoring patterns, supporting a low-scoring affair. |
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| 07-05-2026 22:00 |
Boston River |
- |
Millonarios |
Over 2.25 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 2.50 (home avg 1.00, away avg 1.30, home conceded 1.50, away conceded 1.20) exceeds the 2.25 line. Away team Millonarios have conceded 2+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches (70%), a strong structural Over signal, and both teams are desperate for points in the group stage. Market mispricing (away GL_5 1.55, accelerating) adds further edge despite mixed recent form (40% Over in last 5 for both). |
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| 07-05-2026 22:00 |
O'Higgins |
- |
Sao Paulo |
Over 9.5 Asian Corners |
85% |
O'Higgins average 5.9 corners at home and concede 5.9, while São Paulo average 8.6 corners away and concede 5.1, yielding an expected total of 12.75—3.25 above the 9.5 line. Both teams have 80% of recent matches going over 9.5 (O'Higgins home: 4/5, São Paulo away: 4/5), and the only H2H produced 12 corners. Away team corner variance of 6.10 indicates severe bookmaker mispricing, further supporting the over. |
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| 07-05-2026 22:00 |
Mirassol |
- |
LDU Quito |
Over 10.0 Asian Corners |
80% |
Expected total corners 11.15 (Mirassol home avg 5.20 + LDU away conceded avg 5.60)/2 + (LDU away avg 5.30 + Mirassol home conceded avg 6.20)/2 exceeds line 10.0 by 1.15. Mirassol home corners over 10 in 4/5 recent matches (80%), LDU away over 10 in 4/5 (80%). H2H single match (6 corners) too small to override. No strong structural under signal. LDU away GL_5=1.40 indicates moderate mispricing but below threshold for confidence boost. |
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| 07-05-2026 22:00 |
Platense |
- |
Penarol |
Over 2.0 Goals |
70% |
Platense average 0.80 goals at home and concede 1.50, Penarol average 1.30 away and concede 1.20, yielding an expected total of 2.40, above the 2.0 line. Both teams have 80% Over records in their respective roles (4/5 each), and the only H2H match produced 3 goals. Home team GL_5 of 1.65 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing favoring goals, while the group-stage context (both needing points) supports an open, attacking game. |
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| 07-05-2026 23:00 |
Independiente Yumbo |
- |
Deportivo Pereira |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
Away team Deportivo Pereira has conceded a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5 away matches (80%), while home Independiente Yumbo has seen first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 home matches (67%). Expected 1st half total from averages is 0.75, aligning with the line. Over-first philosophy and consistent 1st half patterns support the over, with away team's defensive fragility and high GL_5 (1.90) adding edge. No H2H data to contradict. |
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