| 04-05-2026 17:30 |
Vikingur Gota |
- |
07 Vestur |
Under 1.25 1st Half Goals |
78% |
Expected 1st half goals (0.95) well below the 1.25 line. 07 Vestur have failed to score in the 1st half in all 4 recent away matches (scoring drought). Vikingur's last 5 home 1st halves have produced 1 or fewer goals in 4/5 (80% Under). Past H2H matches also trend Under (75%). These structural patterns support a low-scoring first half. |
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| 04-05-2026 17:30 |
B36 Torshavn |
- |
NSI Runavik |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.00 goals from B36's 2.10 avg scored at home and 0.80 conceded, and NSI's 1.80 away scored and 1.30 conceded. Recent form supports: 2/3 B36 home matches and 3/4 NSI away matches went Over the 2.75 line. H2H has 4 straight Overs (3,4,7,4 goals), and bookmaker mispricing is severe (home GL_5 1.90, away GL_5 1.70, both accelerating), confirming the line is too low. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
Al Ittihad Jeddah |
- |
Al Kholood |
Over 9.5 Asian Corners |
75% |
Expected corners total is 10.15 (home avg 5.50 + away conceded 5.30 averaged), exceeding the 9.5 line. H2H (3/4 over) and recent match history (both teams 60% over last 10) support the over. Al Ittihad's home dominance and Al Kholood's defensive fragility (3 of last 5 away conceded 2+ goals) create sustained pressure likely to generate corners. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
Al Ittifaq Dammam |
- |
Al Najma |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.85 (home avg 1.40, away conceded avg 3.10) exceeds the 3.0 line by 0.85. Home team has 60% of last 10 matches Over 3.0, away team 70% overall, and H2H saw 7 goals in the only meeting. Away team conceded 4+ goals in each of last 4 away matches (defensive fragility), and home team's high GL_5 of 1.95 indicates persistent bookmaker mispricing on Overs in their matches — both factors strongly align with the Over side. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
Vasas SC |
- |
Budafoki MTE |
Under 1.25 1st Half Goals |
76% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.85 (Vasas home HT avg 0.80 + Budafoki away HT conceded 0.40 / 2 plus Budafoki away HT avg 0.40 + Vasas home HT conceded 0.10 / 2) vs the 1.25 line. Vasas have gone Under 1.5 in 7 of 9 last matches (78%) and Budafoki in 9 of 10 (90%). H2H also produced low-scoring matches (all under 3 FT, likely low HT). Two strong structural reasons (both teams' low HT scoring history) support the Under, with no bookmaker mispricing edge (GL_5 0.95 and 0.55). |
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| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
US Yacoub El Mansour |
- |
RSB Berkane |
Over 3.5 Corners (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half corners total 4.45 (home avg HT corners 2.20, away avg HT corners 2.80, adjusted via conceded) exceeds line 3.5. Home team 80% (8/10) of recent matches over 3.5 HT corners, away 60% (6/10). Structural quality gap (RSB Berkane 5th vs US YEM 16th) and away AC_5 mispricing (2.50) support over. Combined confidence 82%. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:30 |
Deportivo Espanol |
- |
Sportivo Barracas |
Over 1.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total goals 2.00 exceeds the line of 1.75 (home avg 1.00, away avg 1.00). Home side went Over in 3/4 recent home matches (75%) and away side in 3/5 away matches (60%). Both H2H meetings produced Over (5-1 and 1-1). Likelihood for Over 1.5 is 65%, and bookmaker mispricing is mild but aligned (home GL_5 1.25, away 1.10). Over picks preferred by philosophy. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:30 |
JJ Urquiza |
- |
Sacachispas |
Over 1.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals (2.25) from home avg 0.50 + away avg 1.60, combined with defensive averages, exceeds the 1.75 line by 0.5 goals. Both teams show strong Over trends: JJ Urquiza 6/8 (75%) and Sacachispas 7/9 (78%) of recent matches had 2+ goals. Sacachispas away GL_5 of 2.30 (strong accelerating mispricing) further supports Over. H2H (75% Under, 4 years old) is overridden due to quality gap (Sacachispas 2nd, JJ Urquiza 11th) and current attacking form. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:45 |
Roma |
- |
Fiorentina |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 2.95 (Roma home avg 1.80, Fiorentina away conceded 0.90; Fiorentina away scored 1.40, Roma home conceded 1.80) exceeds the 2.5 line by 0.45. Roma's last 5 home matches (60% Over 2.5) and Fiorentina's last 5 away (60% Over) align, with H2H showing 75% Over (3 of 4). Quality gap (6th vs 16th) supports attacking play; home GL_5 of 1.35 indicates mild mispricing in the Over direction. |
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| 04-05-2026 19:00 |
Sevilla |
- |
Real Sociedad |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half goals total 1.70 (home avg 0.50 + away avg 1.00) vs line 1.0, a gap of 0.70. Real Sociedad's recent away matches show 60% over 1.0 in 1H, and Sevilla's poor recent form (relegation battle) combined with Real Sociedad's away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away) creates an open start. Market pricing error is high for Real Sociedad (GL_5=2.10), indicating the line is mispriced and favoring the Over. |
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| 04-05-2026 20:00 |
Gimnasia Mendoza |
- |
Defensa y Justicia |
Over 1.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.55 goals (home avg 0.90 at home + away conceded 1.60 away averaged with away avg 1.30 + home conceded 1.30) well above line 1.75. Home team went over in 7/10 (70%) and away in 9/10 (90%) of recent matches. Home GL_5 variance of 2.05 shows severe bookmaker mispricing accelerating. Strong structural over signal with no H2H contradiction. |
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| 04-05-2026 20:00 |
KACM Marrakesh |
- |
Olympique Dcheira |
Over 8.0 Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners 8.40 (calculated from home avg 3.50, conceded 4.70; away avg 3.60, conceded 5.00) exceeds the line of 8.0. Olympique Dcheira's away matches show 80% Over 8 corners (4 of 5), H2H corners are 75% Over (3 of 4), and their corners variance of 2.20 (ac_5) indicates strong bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. |
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| 04-05-2026 21:00 |
Union Magdalena |
- |
Barranquilla FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Union Magdalena average 1.90 goals scored/home and concede 1.10, Barranquilla average 1.30 scored/away and concede 1.30, giving expected total 2.80 above the 2.5 line. H2H has 75% Over (3/4), and home team's 2nd-place standing vs 7th adds structural Over edge. Mild market mispricing (GL_5 1.20 home, 1.35 away) does not raise confidence further. |
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| 04-05-2026 22:15 |
Velez Sarsfield |
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Newell's |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
67% |
Expected 1st-half total 1.15 (home avg 1.00 + away conceded 0.50 avg vs away scored 0.50 + home conceded 0.30) exceeds line 1.0. Newell's away 1st-half record: 3/3 over 1.0 (totals 3,2,3). Velez home 1st-half scored in 4/5 matches. Structural quality gap (Velez 3rd vs Newell's 14th) and away defensive fragility support early goals. H2H full-time unders are offset by lack of 1st-half H2H data. |
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| 04-05-2026 22:15 |
Velez Sarsfield |
- |
Newell's |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.15 goals (home avg 1.00 HT + away conceded avg 0.50 vs away avg 0.50 + home conceded avg 0.30) against the line of 0.75, a gap of +0.40. Velez saw Over 0.75 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70%), and home GL_5 mispricing is 1.60 (accelerating, adding +5%). Structural quality gap (Velez 3rd vs Newell's 14th) supports early pressure. Confidence 78%. |
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| 04-05-2026 22:30 |
Penarol |
- |
Defensor Sporting |
Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half |
68% |
Expected 1st half total: (0.60+0.30)/2 + (0.30+0.70)/2 = 0.95, above the 0.75 line. Penarol's last 5 home 1st halves all went over 0.75 (100%), while Defensor's away 1st half record is weak but overall expected total supports Over. Bookmaker mispricing is low (GL_5 home 0.80, away 0.45), so no major edge from variance, but the gap from the line and strong home 1st half history provide enough confidence. |
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| 04-05-2026 23:00 |
Quilmes |
- |
Chacarita Juniors |
Over 1.75 Goals |
79% |
Expected total calculated as (1.20+1.20)/2 + (0.90+0.80)/2 = 2.05 goals vs line 1.75 (+0.30 gap). Away team's recent matches show 70% (7/10) over the line, and H2H has 75% (3/4) over. Home team's GL_5 mispricing is 1.85 (high, accelerating), adding edge to Over. Full-time Over selected over 1st half (66%) due to stronger away history and variance. |
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| 04-05-2026 23:00 |
Club Comunicaciones |
- |
CA Ituzaingo |
Over 1.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 1.90 (home avg 0.80 + away conceded 1.60, away avg 0.50 + home conceded 0.90) exceeds the 1.75 line. H2H is 4/4 Over (100% unanimous). Away side Ituzaingo (last, GD -14) has conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches — clear defensive fragility. Comunicaciones' home record is 70% Over this line. Away GL_5 = 1.85 (severe mispricing, accelerating from GL_10 of 1.53) adds significant edge for Over. Quality gap of 10 league places (12th vs 22nd) also supports sustained attacking pressure. |
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