| 02-11-2026 20:00 |
Northern Ireland Reserve League |
Coleraine Reserves |
- |
Ballymena Utd Reserves |
1st Half Over 1.75 Goals |
68% |
1H expected goals = (0.80 + 1.30)/2 + (1.30 + 1.00)/2 = 1.05 + 1.15 = 2.20 against a 1.75 line (gap +0.45); Ballymena Utd Reserves average 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded in first halves away with 80% of their away games producing 2+ 1H goals, while Coleraine Reserves' home 1H numbers are 0.80 scored / 1.00 conceded (50% over 1.5), and the likelihood model has 1H over 1.5 at 65% and over 0.5 at 90%. The full-time line offers far less: FT expected total = (1.60+2.40)/2 + (2.00+2.40)/2 = 4.20 vs a 4.00 line, only +0.20, with only 2 of 7 Coleraine and 2 of 8 Ballymena matches clearing 4.0 goals, so the 1H line is the stronger signal; H2H is a single meeting (Ballymena 0-3 Coleraine, Jan 2026, no HT split) so it is neutral. Bookmaker mispricing supports Over: Ballymena GL_5 2.15 vs GL_10 1.78 (accelerating, strong), Coleraine GL_5 1.10 (well calibrated). Confidence: base 50 + gap from 1H line +9 + home 1H history +0 (50%) + away 1H history +10 (80%) + H2H +0 + common opponents +0 (mutual_total 3.13 refers to FT, sample only g=4 for away) + structural +0 (no 60%+ first-30-min pattern) + market pricing error +4 (half adjustment, one team) - 5 (Ballymena failed to score in 1H in 4 of their last 5 away games) = 68%. |
|
| 02-11-2026 20:15 |
Northern Ireland Reserve League |
Portadown Reserves |
- |
Dungannon Swifts Reserves |
Over 1.75 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
1st-half expected goals calculate to 2.30: (0.90+0.70)/2 + (1.70+1.30)/2, giving a +0.55 gap over the 1.75 line. Dungannon away 1st-half matches were 8/10 over 1.5 and Portadown 6/9 over 1.5, while the recent H2H was 6-0 to Dungannon (5-0 at half-time). Bookmaker mispricing is strong and accelerating with GL_5 of 2.00 and 1.95 against GL_10 of 1.65 for both sides, supporting the 1st-half Over despite capping confidence at the 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 02-11-2026 23:00 |
Uruguay Clausura |
Albion FC |
- |
Deportivo Maldonado |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time goals = (A+B)/2 + (C+D)/2 = (1.30 home scored + 0.80 Maldonado conceded away)/2 + (2.20 Maldonado scored away + 1.70 Albion conceded home)/2 = 1.05 + 1.95 = 3.00, a +0.50 gap over the 2.5 line, and the shot-based cross-check (38.4 total shots / 6.88 shots-per-goal ratio = 5.58 match potential) also clears the line. History backs it: Albion are Over 2.5 in 7/10 recent matches (last three home games produced 4, 5 and 3 goals) and Maldonado in 6/10, while H2H is 2/3 Over (4-1, 1-1, 1-2) and Maldonado have scored 2+ in four of their last five (4-0, 2-1, 2-3, 4-1). Structural Over support comes from Albion conceding 5.2 shots on target per home game (5.1 vs mutual opponents), with mutual-opponent goals volume of 2.59 clearing the line, and the bookmaker's pricing error is accelerating on both sides (home GL_5 1.75 vs GL_10 1.63; away 1.45 vs 1.05) with direction aligned to the Over. |
|
| 03-11-2026 02:00 |
Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Suchitepequez |
- |
Malacateco |
Over 9 Corners |
75% |
Expected corners = (5.20+4.40)/2 + (5.20+5.60)/2 = 10.2, clearing the 9.0 line by 1.2 corners. Both Suchitepequez and Malacateco went over 9 corners in 6/10 recent matches, and the only H2H produced 11 corners (9-2). The home side averages 5.20 corners at home while the away side concedes 4.40 away, with supporting pressure from home dangerous attacks (66.7 vs 54.1). |
|
| 03-11-2026 07:00 |
China League 1 Women |
Chongqing Olympic Women |
- |
Henan Women |
Over 2.5 Goals |
66% |
Expected total = (0.90+1.20)/2 + (1.90+1.70)/2 = 1.05 + 1.80 = 2.85 goals, clearing the 2.5 line by 0.35. Venue history supports Over: Chongqing's home games went 2-5, 0-3, 0-0 (2/3 over 2.5) while Henan's away games went 3-0, 6-0, 0-0 (2/3 over 2.5), and the lone H2H was a 3-0 Henan win. Henan's away attack (1.90 avg, 3 and 6 goals in its wins) faces a Chongqing side that shipped 5 and 3 goals in recent home games, giving a structural Over case. Bookmaker mispricing aligns with Over: Henan's GL_5 is 2.00 (accelerating vs GL_10 1.83), a strong signal only partially offset because the home figure (1.40) is only mild; the 46% full-time Over likelihood tempers confidence to 66%. |
|
| 03-11-2026 07:45 |
AFC Champions League Elite |
Newcastle Jets |
- |
Shanghai Port |
Over 3.25 Goals |
68% |
Expected total is 3.90: Newcastle at home average 1.50 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Shanghai Port away average 2.50 scored and 1.20 conceded, clearing the 3.25 line by 0.65. Newcastle have gone over 3.25 in 6 of their last 9 matches (66.7%) and Shanghai Port have scored 2+ in 7 of their last 10 overall, with the home defensive leak (2.60 conceded at home) the key structural Over driver. H2H is empty and GL_5 values of 1.30/1.35 indicate only mild bookmaker mispricing, but the goal-volume expectation still strongly favors Over. |
|
| 03-11-2026 10:00 |
AFC Champions League Elite |
Kashiwa Reysol |
- |
Daejeon Hana Citizen |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 3.50: (3.00 home scored + 1.10 away conceded)/2 + (1.50 away scored + 1.40 home conceded)/2 = 3.50, a +0.75 gap over the 2.75 line. Kashiwa's last 10 matches went Over 2.75 in 8/10 (80%) with 2+ goals in each of their last three home games, while Daejeon are 5/10 over 2.5; market pricing error is strong for Kashiwa (GL_5 2.05, GL_10 2.65) and moderate for Daejeon (GL_5 1.50). Confidence scoring: base 50 + gap +15 + home history +10 + likelihood +3 + home pricing error +8 + away pricing error +5 + form +3 = 94 raw, capped at 82 by the standard evidence ceiling. |
|
| 03-11-2026 11:00 |
North Macedonia League Women |
ZFK Ljuboten Women |
- |
ZFK Skopje 2014 Women |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
76% |
1st-half expected total = (1.20+0.60)/2 + (1.50+0.90)/2 = 2.10 goals against a 1.5 line (gap +0.60, the biggest relative edge on the card), with the away side scoring before the break in 78% of away games and the home side in 70%; every recent match that recorded half-time data finished 4, 3, 3, 2 and 1 first-half goals (4 of 5 over 1.5) and the likelihood model rates HT Over 1.5 at 65%. Bookmaker mispricing is accelerating on both sides (home GL_5 2.15 vs GL_10 1.60; away GL_5 1.60 vs GL_10 1.38) with the expected total above the opening line, while the two head-to-head meetings are too small a sample (2 matches) to veto, leaving the 1.5 HT line underpriced versus a 2.10 projection (full-time Over 3.25 also qualifies at 1.85 but with a lower relative gap and only 50% of the away side's last 10 clearing that line). |
|
| 03-11-2026 12:00 |
Montenegro Prva Liga |
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj |
- |
FK Arsenal |
Over 2.25 Goals |
80% |
Full-time expected total = (1.90 home scored + 1.60 away conceded)/2 + (0.90 away scored + 1.40 home conceded)/2 = 1.75 + 1.15 = 2.90 vs the 2.25 line (+0.65 gap). Otrant's home games have gone Over 2.5 in 7/10 (70%, ~3.3 goals/game) while Arsenal's away games have gone Over 2.5 in 8/10 (80%, ~4.2 goals/game), with Arsenal conceding 3.4/game away and shipping 2+ in 9 of 10 away matches. Arsenal sit bottom (10th, 9pts) versus Otrant 3rd (21pts) — a dominant-vs-weak structural Over signal — and home market pricing error of GL_5 1.75 accelerating above GL_10 1.40 signals the bookmaker is underpricing goals in the Over direction. |
|
| 03-11-2026 12:00 |
Poland Ekstraliga Women |
Gornik Leczna Women |
- |
Czarni Sosnowiec Women |
1st Half Over 1.25 Goals |
68% |
Expected 1st-half total = (1.20+0.80)/2 + (0.90+0.70)/2 = 1.80 vs the 1.25 line, a +0.55 gap. Home 1st-half matches went over 1.25 in 7/10 and away in 5/10 (with only 2/10 away matches at 0 first-half goals); the single H2H had 2 first-half goals and is treated as neutral. Breakdown: Base 50% + gap +10% + home HT history +8% + away HT history +0% + H2H +0% + structural +0% + market pricing error +0% (home 0.65, away 1.10 mild) = 68%. |
|
| 03-11-2026 12:00 |
Indonesia League Cup |
Dewa United FC |
- |
Persita Tangerang |
Over 3.0/3.5 Goals |
66% |
Season goal averages give (1.40+1.80)/2 + (1.80+1.30)/2 = 3.15, but current venue form pushes it above the 3.25 line: Dewa scored 2+ in each of their last three home games (2-1, 2-0, 2-1) and Persita have 17 league goals, scoring 8 in 3 away games including a 5-1 win at Persik, blending to ~3.4-3.5 expected. Persita's bookmaker goal-line mispricing is accelerating (GL_5 1.85 vs GL_10 1.45) as their recent games produced 6,5,5,4,3 goals — direction aligns with Over — and 3-goal games (6/10 for Dewa, 7/10 for Persita) only half-lose on the 3.0/3.5 split, while two 1-0 H2H meetings and the low mutual-opponents total (2.36) keep confidence capped near 66% rather than higher. |
|
| 03-11-2026 12:00 |
Uruguay Reserve League |
Colon FC Reserves |
- |
Albion FC Reserves |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time total = (home scored 1.80 + away conceded 1.80)/2 + (away scored 1.10 + home conceded 2.30)/2 = 1.80 + 1.70 = 3.50, a +0.75 gap over the 2.75 line. Colon's last 10 matches went Over 2.75 in 7 of 10 (70%, home history +8%) and the shot-based match potential (34.0 shots / 5.39 ratio = 6.31) confirms the Over, while mutual opponents average 2.90 combined (clears the line). Albion's away scoring drought (1 goal in last 5, 0.9 goals/game away, failed to score 60%) is the main risk and costs 3%, but Colon's leaky home defence (2.30 conceded/game, 4.10 total goals per home match) and defensive stats (mutual opponents concede 6 shots on target) offset it — bookmaker pricing error is mild (GL_5 1.10 home / 1.35 away), so no variance boost is applied. |
|
| 03-11-2026 12:35 |
Saudi Arabia Division 1 |
Damac FC |
- |
Al Okhdood |
Damac FC -0.75 Asian Handicap |
70% |
Damac (6th, 15pts) vs Al Okhdood (14th, 7pts) is an 8-point/8-place gap, and recent form widens it: Damac have won 4 of their last 5 (2-0, 4-1, 3-2, 2-1) and cover 4 of their last 5 Asian Handicaps (5W-2V-3L last 10), while Al Okhdood are 0W-5L on Asian Handicap in their last 5 and have conceded 28 goals in 10 games (1-3, 1-5, 2-4). Against 10 shared opponents Damac post 1.4 scored / 1.3 conceded with a 4-1-5 record versus Al Okhdood's 0.33 scored / 1.89 conceded and 1-1-7, giving Damac a 5-0 sweep of the comparative stats (goals, shots 9.3v6.0, on target 4.3v6.11, dangerous attacks 58.8v54.3, shot efficiency 6.64v23.67) and a mutual goals total of 2.46 that suits a tight, home-controlled game. H2H backs it directly - Damac won both recent meetings 2-0 and 1-0 (the 1-0 as visitors), covering this -0.75 line - and the away side's market pricing error is elevated (GL_5 2.05 vs GL_10 1.65, accelerating), confirming the bookmaker is still misjudging Al Okhdood's true level. Full-time goal line was rejected: expected total 2.75 equals the 2.75 line exactly, away Over-2.5 history is only 40% (and just 1 of their last 5 away games cleared 2.5), and H2H went Under in both meetings. |
|
| 03-11-2026 13:00 |
England Development League 2 |
Wigan U21 |
- |
Sheff Utd U21 |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
1st-half expected total = (Wigan home HT scored 1.20 + Sheff Utd away HT conceded 0.30)/2 + (Sheff Utd away HT scored 1.10 + Wigan home HT conceded 1.60)/2 = 0.75 + 1.35 = 2.10 goals vs the 1.5 line (gap +0.60, the largest gap of any market). Wigan's home first halves have gone Over 1.5 in 4 of 5 (80%, averaging 2.8 HT goals), although Sheff Utd's away first halves are leaner (2 of 6, ~1.4 avg), which caps confidence. Full-time Over 4.0 is unattractive (Sheff Utd away went 0 of 10 Over 4.0, expected total only 3.95), H2H is just 2 matches (neutral, no HT data), and bookmaker mispricing is only mild (GL_5 home 1.45, away 1.15) — so the edge is the structural first-half scoring gap, with Over 1.5 at 1.775 (~56% implied) versus a ~65-70% modelled chance. |
|
| 03-11-2026 15:00 |
Portugal U23 League |
Academico Viseu U23 |
- |
Torreense U23 |
Over 9.0 Corners |
78% |
Expected corners are 10.1 vs the 9.0 line: home averages 4.6 corners and concedes 5.7 at home, while away averages 5.3 and concedes 4.6 away. Home has gone over 9.0 in 8/10 recent matches (80%), away in 5/10 (50%, with two pushes), and the 2nd-vs-10th quality gap supports sustained home pressure. The only caution is the 2-match H2H corner sample (8 and 4), too small to override the structural Over signal. |
|
| 03-11-2026 15:00 |
Portugal U23 League |
Gil Vicente U23 |
- |
Felgueiras 1932 U23 |
Felgueiras 1932 U23 Asian Handicap -0.25 |
66% |
Felgueiras sit 8th (15 pts, 16-11) against Gil Vicente's 17th (8 pts, 10-16), and their away form is decisive: 3W-1D-1L with only 4 goals conceded across 5 away games (three 2-0 wins), while Gil Vicente are 1W-0D-3L at home (5 scored, 7 conceded). Felgueiras have covered in 5 of 5 recent Asian Handicap matches versus Gil Vicente's 2 wins in 5, and among venue-matched mutual opponents Felgueiras post a superior +1.50 goal NET (2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded, unbeaten 3-1-0) against Gil Vicente's +1.14 (2.14 scored, 1.00 conceded, 5-1-1). The hosts generate volume against shared opposition (14.4 shots, 70 dangerous attacks) but convert poorly at 6.73 shots per goal, so the clinical, defensively tight visitors are the value side at 1.90 with a live goal-line edge sitting just under threshold (expected 2.80 vs 2.75 line; home Over 2.5 only 70%, away away-game Over 2.5 just 40%). |
|
| 03-11-2026 15:00 |
Portugal U23 League |
Maritimo U23 |
- |
Moreirense U23 |
Over 9.5 Corners |
67% |
Expected corners = (home generated 4.0 + away conceded 3.9)/2 + (away generated 5.6 + home conceded 6.3)/2 = 3.95 + 5.95 = 9.90, clearing the 9.5 line. Maritimo's last 10 matches produced 10+ corners in 7 of 10 (70%), and Moreirense's away games did so in 3 of 5 (60%), so the away-dominant side (2.0 goals and 5.6 corners per away game) should pile on corners against a leaky home team that concedes 6.3 corners per home game. The elevated corner-line pricing error (AC_5 2.70) signals the bookmaker line is unreliable, and high combined shots/dangerous-attack volume in the mutual-opponent sample (home ~97 dang attacks for+against, away ~100) supports sustained pressure. Confidence: Base 50% + expected-corners gap +5% + home history +8% + away history +5% + H2H +0% (empty) + structural +5% (home concedes 6.3) = 73% raw, calibrated to 67%. |
|
| 03-11-2026 15:00 |
Egypt League Cup |
Al Qanah |
- |
Modern Sport FC |
1st Half Over 0.75 Goals |
78% |
1st-half expected total = (0.40+0.80)/2 + (0.70+0.80)/2 = 1.35 goals vs a 0.75 line (0.5/1.0 split) — a +0.60 gap, the biggest gap on the board. First-half history is clean: Al Qanah were over 0.75 at HT in 7 of 9 recent matches and Modern Sport in 7 of 10 (combined 15/19 = 79%; only 4 of 19 were 0-0 at half), with Modern's last five HT totals reading 1,3,5,2,1 and Al Qanah's last five 2,3,1,2,0 — so 42% settle as a full win and a further 37% land on exactly one goal (half win), leaving only ~21% blank risk. Bookmaker mispricing is real and accelerating: MT GL_5 1.90 (home) and 1.55 (away) both above their GL_10 baselines (1.40/1.18), pointing the same direction as the Over. The full-time Over 2.0 also qualifies (expected 2.80 vs line 2.0, Modern conceding 2+ in 3 of its last 5 away games) but carries ~26% push risk on exactly two goals, so the half-time Over 0.75 offers the cleaner edge. Raw checklist score 83% capped at the 82% standard ceiling, discounted to 78%. |
|
| 03-11-2026 17:00 |
Rwanda National League |
APR FC |
- |
Gasogi Utd |
Over 2.25 Goals |
73% |
Expected goals for the 2.25 line are 2.65: APR average 1.80 scored and 1.30 conceded at home, while Gasogi average 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded away. The mutual-opponent total is 2.80, with APR far stronger against shared opposition (2.00 goals for / 1.70 against vs Gasogi 0.89 / 1.00), and APR has 6/10 matches over 2.25 with H2H wins of 4-0 and 3-0. APR’s GL_5 of 1.55 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction, making Over 2.25 the strongest qualifying bet despite Gasogi’s mixed 4/10 Over record. |
|
| 03-11-2026 17:00 |
Denmark Cup |
Lyngby |
- |
Randers FC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
67% |
Expected total = (1.60+1.60)/2 + (1.30+1.80)/2 = 3.15 vs the 3.0 line (gap +0.15, Over preferred; shot-based match potential 49.2/8.93 = 5.5 also clears the line). Recent form is goal-heavy: Lyngby's last 5 matches totalled 3, 5, 6, 7 and 4 goals (avg 5.0) and Randers' last 5 totalled 3, 4, 0, 2 and 6 (avg 3.0), with Randers conceding 2+ in 4 of those 5; the 3.0 line gives push protection at exactly three goals, and the likelihood model has Over 2.5 at 65%. Bookmaker mispricing is strong and accelerating in the Over direction for both sides (Lyngby 1.95 vs 1.68 over 5/10 games, Randers 1.65 vs 1.20 - double accelerating signal), offset by a mild Under lean from mutual opponents (6 shared games: Lyngby 1.0 for/2.0 against, Randers 0.5/1.83, combined 2.67) and a neutral 2-match H2H (2-1, 2-0). Score: base 50 + gap +3 + home history 0 + away history 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents -5 + likelihood +3 + pricing error home +8 + pricing error away +5 + structural away defensive fragility +5 = 69%, trimmed to 67%. |
|
| 03-11-2026 17:00 |
Argentina Reserve League |
Leones de Rosario Reserves |
- |
Sportivo Barracas Reserves |
Over 3.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected total = (3.10+1.50)/2 + (3.00+0.80)/2 = 4.20 against a 3.0 line — a 1.20-goal gap, and the shot-based cross-check clears it too (26.3 combined shots ÷ 5.59 shots-per-goal = 4.70 goals). Sportivo Barracas' away games average 4.5 total goals with 6 of 10 over 3.0 and 2 more pushing on exactly 3, while Leones have scored 31 goals in their last 8 home matches (3.88/game, 2+ in seven of eight) and conceded only 0.80 at home, so both attack and defensive-fragility routes point Over. Bookmaker mispricing is strong on both sides (home GL_5 2.25 accelerating vs GL_10 2.13; away GL_5 2.10 with GL_10 2.45 as baseline) and both align with the Over, with no H2H or mutual-opponent sample to contradict; scoring breakdown: base 50% + gap +15% + away history 60% +5% + home history 50% +0% + H2H +0% + common opponents +0% + likelihood +3% + GL_5 home +8% + GL_5 away +8% = 89% raw, capped at the 82% standard tier (both-team 70%+ history not met) and calibrated to 78% for the neutral home record at this exact line. |
|
| 03-11-2026 18:00 |
Argentina Liga Profesional Reserves |
Independiente Rivadavia Reserves |
- |
Estudiantes LP Reserves |
Over 2.25 Goals |
71% |
Expected total from the A1 formula is 3.25 goals — (home scored 1.70 + away conceded 1.30)/2 + (away scored 1.60 + home conceded 1.90)/2 = 1.50 + 1.75 — comfortably above the 2.25 Asian line (2.0/2.5 split), and the shot-based check (34.2 combined shots ÷ 5.77 goals-per-shot ratio = 5.93 match potential) also flags Over. Home side Independiente Rivadavia went over 2.25 in 6 of their last 10 (60%) and drives strong bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 2.30 vs GL_10 1.83, accelerating), while mutual-opponent goals volume across shared opposition totals 2.6, above the line. Caution is warranted because Estudiantes LP's away games are low-scoring (only 3 of 10 over 2.25; last five away totals 2,2,2,1,1) and the single H2H was a 1-0, so this is a moderate-confidence Over rather than a strong one. |
|
| 03-11-2026 19:00 |
England National League Cup |
Truro City |
- |
West Brom U21 |
Over 3.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected full-time goals are 3.90: Truro score 2.50 at home and concede 0.90, while West Brom U21 score 1.90 and concede 2.50 away. West Brom have conceded 2+ in 7 of their last 9 away games and Truro have scored 2+ in each of their last five home matches, which offsets mixed over-3.5 history (Truro 4/10, West Brom 6/10) and a mutual-opponent total of 3.25. The 1st-half line is weaker (expected 1.70 vs 1.5, Truro only 4/10 over 1.5 recently) and GL_5 bookmaker mispricing is mild at 1.30 for both sides, so Over 3.5 is the best playable edge. |
|
| 03-11-2026 19:00 |
England National League Cup |
Sutton Utd |
- |
Southampton U21 |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
1st-half expected total is 1.95: (0.80+1.00)/2 + (1.50+0.60)/2 = 1.95, a +0.45 edge over the 1.5 line. Southampton U21 have gone over 1.5 first-half goals in 6/10 recent matches, both sides are 4/5 in their last five for that HT line, and Southampton U21 conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games; the away-side bookmaker mispricing is severe (GL_5 3.20 vs GL_10 2.33, accelerating) and aligns with Over. H2H has only two meetings and no reliable HT split, so it is treated as neutral. |
|
| 03-11-2026 19:00 |
England National League Cup |
Wealdstone |
- |
Derby U21 |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals = (1.40+2.90)/2 + (2.50+1.70)/2 = 4.25, well above the 3.25 line. Derby U21's last 10 matches all produced over 3.25 goals (7/7 away), Wealdstone's home games were 4/6 over 3.25, and the venue-matched mutual-opponent total is 4.6 goals. Supporting signals: Derby U21 conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away games; home GL_5 2.15 is accelerating vs GL_10 1.48 and away GL_5 1.80 also flags bookmaker mispricing aligned with Over; confidence capped at standard 82% ceiling. |
|
| 03-11-2026 19:00 |
England National League Cup |
Halifax |
- |
Nottm Forest U21 |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is (2.20+1.90)/2 + (2.00+1.40)/2 = 3.75, which is 0.50 goals above the 3.25 line. Nottm Forest U21 away matches went Over 3.25 in 7/10 (70%) and they conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games; mutual-opponent goals total 4.41 also supports Over. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate on Halifax (GL_5 1.75 vs GL_10 1.33, accelerating) and 1.50 on the away side, both aligned with the Over. |
|
| 03-11-2026 19:00 |
England National League Cup |
Hartlepool |
- |
Leeds U21 |
Over 3.25 Goals |
78% |
Expected total = (1.30 home scored at home + 2.20 Leeds U21 conceded away)/2 + (2.10 Leeds U21 scored away + 2.30 Hartlepool conceded at home)/2 = 1.75 + 2.20 = 3.95 goals, 0.70 above the 3.25 line (shots-based match potential 41.2 total shots / 5.90 goals-per-shot ratio = 6.99, also well above the line). Leeds U21 away games are 7 of 10 over 3.25 (totals 4,5,6,4,1,7,2,8,5,1) and they have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away (4 at Oldham, 2 at Solihull, 5 at Boreham Wood), while Hartlepool's home games hit 3+ goals in 6 of 10 and they concede 2.30 per home game; Hartlepool have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 home games, which is the main counter-signal and keeps the price at 1.875. Mutual-opponent goals volume is 4.34 per game (0.67+4.00+2.33+1.67 / 2), clearing the line, and Leeds U21's 5.0 shots-on-target conceded against shared opposition confirms the weak-defence Over signal; bookmaker mispricing is high on the away side (GL_5 1.80, stabilising against a GL_10 baseline of 2.25), so the opening line looks too low. Confidence: base 50% + gap from line +14% + away history 70% +8% + common opponents +5% + away market pricing error +8% + away defensive fragility +5% - Hartlepool home scoring drought -3% = 87% raw, capped at standard tier 82% (home history only 50%, so elevated tier not qualified), adjusted to 78% for reproducibility. |
|
| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
Torreense Women |
- |
Benfica Women |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Full-time Over 2.75: expected total = (3.80+0.90)/2 + (2.80+1.00)/2 = 4.25 vs line 2.75; Torreense home matches are 10/10 over 2.5 and Benfica's last 10 are 8/10 over 2.5, with Benfica's last five all producing 3+ goals. H2H is the caveat (1/3 over 2.75: 2-0, 3-2, 2-0), but mutual-opponent aggregate total is 3.31 and bookmaker mispricing is high (home GL_5 1.95 accelerating vs GL_10 1.78; away GL_5 1.50 vs 1.30). Scoring: base 50 + gap +15 + home history +10 + away history +10 + H2H -5 + common opponents +5 + GL_5 home +8 + GL_5 away +5 + likelihood +0 + structural +0 = 98 raw, capped at standard 82% ceiling. |
|
| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
England National League Cup |
Worthing |
- |
Fulham U21 |
1st Half Over 1.25 Goals |
82% |
1H expected goals = (1.00+1.40)/2 + (0.90+0.90)/2 = 2.10, which is 0.85 above the 1.25 line. Both teams have gone over 1.25 first-half goals in 6/10 recent matches, and Fulham U21's away defence conceded 3+ in three of their last five away games (Walsall 3, Leicester 6, Chelsea 3); their GL_5 of 1.70 shows moderate bookmaker mispricing aligned with Over. Confidence: Base 50% + gap +15% + home HT history +5% + away HT history +5% + H2H +0% + early scoring +8% + GL_5 home +0% + GL_5 away +2.5% = 85.5% capped at 82% (standard ceiling); H2H is empty. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
England Isthmian Premier Division |
Dulwich |
- |
Cray Wanderers |
Over 3.0 Goals |
67% |
Expected total of 3.25 clears the 3.0 line: A=1.20 (Dulwich scored at home), B=1.10 (Cray conceded away), C=1.90 (Cray scored away), D=2.30 (Dulwich conceded at home) → (1.20+1.10)/2 + (1.90+2.30)/2 = 1.15 + 2.10 = 3.25. Dulwich's home defence is the structural driver, conceding 2.30 goals and 5.60 shots on target per home game, and the venue-matched mutual-opponent sample produced a 4.00 total (Dulwich 0.33 scored/2.67 conceded, Cray 1.67/3.33, with Cray conceding 5.33 shots on target), while Dulwich's last 10 totals of 6,4,2,3,5,2,4,4,4,1 give 6 of 10 over 3.0 (one push). Away GL_5 1.70 vs GL_10 1.48 is accelerating bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction (home 1.45 vs 1.33 also accelerating), with likelihood at 70% for over 2.5; the main drag is Dulwich's scoring drought (failed to score in 4 of their last 5, -3%) plus an empty H2H, which caps confidence at 67%. Breakdown: base 50 + gap 5 + home history 5 + away history 0 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 0 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 5 + structural -3 = 67%. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
Scotland League Challenge Cup |
Morton |
- |
Kelty Hearts |
Morton -1.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Morton's Asian handicap record is stronger (3-1-1 last five, 4-1-5 last ten) than Kelty's (1-1-3, 3-1-6), and the venue-matched mutual-opponent comparison is decisive: Morton are 3W-1D-3L with a +0.15 goal NET versus Kelty's 0W-0D-4L and -1.50 goal NET, giving Morton a 4-1 stat advantage. Kelty have lost 9 of 10 away matches (0W-1D-9L), conceding 24 goals and losing 6 of 10 by 2+, while Morton's recent form includes 3-2 at Partick, 2-0 vs Queen's Park and 2-1 at Arbroath, supporting the -1.25 line at 1.975. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
Scotland League Challenge Cup |
East Kilbride |
- |
Stirling |
Over 3.25 Goals |
67% |
Expected total is 3.80 vs the 3.25 line (gap +0.55): East Kilbride average 2.30 scored / 1.60 conceded at home, Stirling 1.80 scored / 1.90 conceded away, and the shot-based match potential (42.4 total shots ÷ 5.65 goals-to-shots ratio) also clears the line. The venue-matched mutual-opponent sample is strongly Over: combined total 4.17 goals per game (East Kilbride 3.30 for / 0.90 against over 10 games, W9-D1-L0; Stirling 1.38 / 2.75, W2-D1-L5), and Stirling concedes 5.6 shots on target per away game (7.38 against shared opponents) — a confirmed weak-defence/high-shots-conceded Over signal. Stirling's recent total-goals pricing error is 1.55 (last 5), the only moderate mispricing in the match, and it points the same way as the Over. H2H is the drag: 5, 3 and 2 goals (2 of 3 under 3.25) costs 5% confidence, and venue history at this line is only 4 of 7 for East Kilbride home games and 1 of 4 for Stirling away games, which is why this lands at 67% rather than higher. Confidence breakdown: base 50 + gap from line +10 + home history +0 + away history +0 + H2H −5 + common opponents +5 + likelihood +0 + GL_5 home (0.65, calibrated) +0 + GL_5 away (1.55, partial, direction aligned) +3 + structural (high shots conceded) +5 = 68% → 67% after reproducibility trim. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
Scotland League Challenge Cup |
Arbroath |
- |
Queen of South |
1st Half Over 1.25 Goals |
70% |
1st-half expected total is 1.70 goals — (A_ht 0.30 + B_ht 1.30)/2 + (C_ht 0.60 + D_ht 1.20)/2 — clearing the 1.25 line by 0.45, driven by Arbroath conceding 1.20 first-half goals at home and Queen of South conceding 1.30 first-half goals away. In the last 10 matches, 2+ first-half goals landed in 11 of 20 team-games (QoS 6/10, Arbroath 5/10), and Arbroath have conceded a first-half goal in 7 of their last 10 (70%), confirming an early-scoring pattern. Queen of South carry severe bookmaker mispricing (market pricing error GL_5 2.35 vs GL_10 2.73, stabilising, direction aligned with Over) and their venue-matched mutual-opponent record is structurally leaky (2.83 goals conceded, 6.67 shots on target against per game over 6 games, 0W-1D-5L), while H2H is empty and therefore neutral. Full-time Over 3.0 was rejected despite a 3.35 expected total because only 2 of 6 relevant Arbroath matches cleared it and the mutual-opponent goal total (2.80) sits below the line, making the 1.25 first-half line at 2.00 the better value. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
Scotland League Challenge Cup |
Airdrieonians |
- |
Elgin |
Airdrieonians -0.75 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Airdrie sit 3rd in the Challenge Cup (5W-0D-1L, GF21 GA8) vs Elgin 8th (4W-0D-2L, GF14 GA3), and the mutual-opponent data strongly favors the home side: Airdrie averaged 2.00 goals for / 1.71 against across 7 shared opponents, while Elgin averaged 0.60 for / 3.00 against with a 0W-1D-4L record across 5. Airdrie's AH last-10 record is 6-1-3 and Elgin's is 5-0-5, but both are only 2-3 in their last 5 AH matches, so this is a 2-of-3 signal lean; the sole H2H is a neutral 1-1 friendly. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
Scotland League Challenge Cup |
Inverness CT |
- |
Montrose |
Inverness CT -1.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Inverness have covered -1.25 in 6/10 home matches and won each of their last three home games 2-0, while the venue-matched mutual-opponent comparison strongly favours them 4-1 on classified stats with a goals NET of +0.6 vs 0.0. Montrose's recent away margins are resilient — five straight away games within one goal — so confidence is held at 67% rather than 70%+, but the standings/division gap and mutual-opponent W/D/L of 6-3-1 vs 3-3-4 still make Inverness -1.25 the best qualifying edge. Full-time Over 3.25 is not supported by match history: only 4/10 Inverness and 3/10 Montrose matches cleared 3.25 goals. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
England Northern Premier League |
Bury |
- |
Avro FC |
Over 3.5 Goals |
76% |
Expected full-time total is 4.50 ((2.80 home scored + 2.10 away conceded)/2 + (2.50 away scored + 1.60 home conceded)/2), a full goal above the 3.5 line, and the shot-based check agrees (48.2 combined shots ÷ 5.01 shots-per-goal ratio = 9.63 match potential, comfortably over the line). 60% of both sides' last 10 games cleared 3.5 — Bury's home games produced 3, 8, 3, 3, 4, 8, 7, 1, 5 and 4 goals while Avro's last five averaged 4.0 (5, 4, 1, 8, 2) — with Bury scoring 2+ in nine of their last ten home matches and Avro conceding 2+ in four of their last five. The decisive edge is Avro's goal-line bookmaker mispricing: 2.10 goals per game over their last five against opening lines of 2.75-3.5 (actual totals 5, 4, 1, 8, 2), with the trend still stabilising at a 2.83 ten-game baseline, and mutual-opponent total goals of 6.0 corroborating the Over. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
England Southern Premier League Central |
Anstey Nomads |
- |
Real Bedford |
Over 3.25 Goals (Over 3.0/3.5 split) |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 4.05 vs the 3.25 line — home Anstey score 1.80/concede 2.00 at home, away Real Bedford score 2.80/concede 1.50 on the road, giving (1.80+1.50)/2 + (2.80+2.00)/2 = 4.05, a +0.80 gap. History backs it: Real Bedford have gone over 3.25 in 7 of their last 10 (78% over 3.0) and Anstey in 6 of 10 (75% over 3.0), with likelihood at 80% Over 2.5 and 65% Over 3.5. The decisive edge is the bookmaker mispricing on Real Bedford — GL_5 of 2.20 vs GL_10 of 1.90 (accelerating, strong tier) pointing squarely at the Over, while H2H is empty and the mutual-opponent sample (g=1 each) is too thin to use. Raw score 89% capped at the standard 82% ceiling because neither side's history reaches 70%+ for the elevated tier. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
England Southern Premier League Central |
Bury Town |
- |
Kettering |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals are 3.95 vs the 3.0 line: Bury home 1.90 scored/1.90 conceded plus Kettering away 2.50 scored/1.60 conceded. Bury have gone over 3.0 in 6/8 recent matches and Kettering in 7/10, with Kettering conceding 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away games; H2H is empty so neutral. Home GL_5 is 1.75 vs GL_10 1.48, a moderate accelerating bookmaker mispricing aligned with the Over, while the 1st-half line at 1.25 also projects Over but with slightly weaker support. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
England Northern Premier League |
Curzon Ashton |
- |
FC United of Manchester |
Curzon Ashton -0.75 Asian Handicap |
73% |
Curzon Ashton are 5th (28 pts, +11 GD) against a 21st-placed FC United (12 pts), and the venue split is decisive: Curzon's home record reads 5W-1D-1L with 13 scored and 6 conceded, while FC United have 0 away league wins (2D-4L, 5 GF, 11 GA) and have lost by 2+ goals in 5 of their last 10 away games. The venue-matched mutual-opponent sweep is 5-0 to Curzon (goals NET +0.22 vs -0.87, on-target NET +0.33 vs -1.63, dangerous-attack NET +5.0 vs -21.4, goals-to-shots ratio 7.15 vs 11.40), and Curzon fully covered -0.75 in 6 of their last 10 home matches with 2 more half-wins. The full-time goal line was rejected: only 40% of Curzon's and 44% of FC United's last 10 games cleared 3.0 goals (mutual-opponent total 2.40 vs a 3.0 line), and no Asian Corners prices were posted, so the handicap is the only market with a structural edge. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
England Isthmian Premier Division |
Wingate & Finchley |
- |
Burgess Hill Town |
Over 3.0 Goals |
79% |
Expected total = (Wingate home scored 1.90 + Burgess Hill away conceded 1.30)/2 + (Burgess Hill away scored 1.90 + Wingate home conceded 2.20)/2 = 1.60 + 2.05 = 3.65, a 0.65-goal gap above the 3.0 line, and the shot-based match potential (41.2 total shots / 6.24 goals-to-shots ratio) also clears the line comfortably. Wingate's last five home games produced totals of 6, 2, 4, 3 and 5 (3 of 5 non-push Over 3.0), and Burgess Hill's two competitive away games this season finished 2-3 at Whyteleafe and 4-2 at Welling (5 and 6 goals, despite two 1-0 pre-season friendlies) — combined with a mutual-opponent goals aggregate of 3.08 and a 1-0 away win at Wingate last March (3 goals, push on this line). Bookmaker pricing error is moderate on Burgess Hill (GL_5 1.75 accelerating from GL_10 1.55) pointing the same direction as the Over, while the 1st-half line (1.25 vs expected 1.60, with Burgess Hill only 2 of 7 first halves over 1.5) offers a thinner edge, so the full-time Over 3.0 is the stronger bet. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
Northern Ireland County Antrim Shield |
Cliftonville |
- |
Bangor FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
66% |
Expected total = (1.50+1.70)/2 + (1.30+1.10)/2 = 2.80 vs line 2.75. Home home-match Over 2.75: 3/5 (60%); away away-match Over 2.75: 3/5 (60%); H2H 2/3 Over (0-3, 3-1, 1-1); Bangor conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (Linfield 2, Crusaders 2, Limavady 3). Mutual opponents total = (1.70+1.20+0.83+1.17)/2 = 2.45, slightly below line (-5%). Score: Base 50 + gap +1 + home history +5 + away history +5 + H2H +5 + common opponents -5 + likelihood +0 + market pricing error home +0 (GL_5 1.95 vs GL_10 1.63 but expected gap only +0.05, ambiguous) + market pricing error away +0 (GL_5 1.05) + structural away fragility +5 = 66%. 1H expected 1.45 but no 1H goal line was quoted; shot-based potential 5.22 also clears 2.75. |
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| 03-11-2026 19:45 |
England Isthmian Division One North |
Buckhurst Hill |
- |
Cambridge City |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
67% |
1st-half expected total is 1.49 vs the 1.25 line: (0.71+0.50)/2 + (1.20+0.57)/2 = 1.49. Cambridge City scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 and average 1.20 HT goals away, while Buckhurst Hill conceded a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5; the sole H2H (2-0, HT 1-0) is too small a sample to veto. Away bookmaker mispricing is high (GL_5 2.00 vs GL_10 1.60, accelerating) but only one side is mispriced, so it gives a partial over edge; confidence 67%. |
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| 03-11-2026 21:30 |
Venezuela Primera Division |
Monagas |
- |
Caracas |
1st Half Over 1.0 Goals |
66% |
1st-half expected goals are (0.60+0.70)/2 + (1.10+0.70)/2 = 1.55 against a 1.0 line, a +0.55 gap that is much stronger than the full-time 2.85 vs 2.75 gap. Caracas score 69.2% of their goals in the first half, the latest H2H had a 2-1 first-half total (3 goals), and Caracas' recent 1H totals produced only one loss over this line. Confidence is 66% = base 50 + HT gap +11 + home market pricing error GL_5 1.65 vs GL_10 1.23 +5, with no history bonus. |
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| 03-11-2026 22:00 |
Argentina Liga Profesional Reserves |
River Plate Reserves |
- |
CA Tigre Reserves |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total is 2.90 vs the 2.75 line ((1.80+1.90)/2 + (1.10+1.00)/2), and both teams had 6/10 recent matches reach 3+ goals. The away side conceded 2+ in 3 of its last 5 away games, including 5 at Union Santa Fe, while River are 2nd vs Tigre 16th in the group; H2H is only 2 matches and neutral (Tigre 0-2 River, River 4-0 Tigre) and mutual-opponent goals volume is 2.50, so the edge comes from the Over-first line gap plus away defensive fragility. GL_5 is 1.10 home / 0.95 away, so no large bookmaker mispricing boost was added. |
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