| 16-08-2026 22:00 |
CD Inca |
- |
CD Luis Angel Firpo |
Over 2.5 Goals |
72% |
Breakdown: Base 50 + gap 0 + home history 10 + away history 5 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood -3 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 0 + structural (away defensive fragility) 5 = 72. Expected total via venue averages is (1.20+1.00)/2 + (1.70+1.10)/2 = 2.50 exactly the line, but shot-based match potential is 5.31 and mutual-opponent total is 3.50, both clearing 2.5. CD Inca's last 5 are 4/5 over 2.5 and Firpo's last 5 are 3/5 over, while Firpo conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away (Plaza Amador 2-1, Hercules 2-2, Municipal Limeno 2-1, FAS 2-0). |
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| 16-08-2026 23:15 |
Alianza FC Panama |
- |
Plaza Amador |
Over 2.25 Goals |
79% |
Expected total is 3.40 vs line 2.25 (Alianza home 1.30 scored/1.30 conceded, Plaza away 2.70 scored/1.50 conceded). Plaza have gone 9/10 over 2.25 in their last 10, mutual-opponent total is 3.02, and away GL_5 is 2.30 accelerating. H2H is 75% under, but Plaza's current away attack and 3/5 away matches conceding 2+ structurally support the Over. |
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| 17-08-2026 08:15 |
Bulleen Lions U23 |
- |
North Sunshine Eagles U23 |
Under 2.0,2.5 First Half Goals |
81% |
1st-half expected total is 1.85 (A_ht 0.80, B_ht 1.70, C_ht 0.70, D_ht 0.50) vs line 2.0/2.5. Home matches stayed under 2.0/2.5 HT in 8 of last 10 and away in 7 of last 10. Scoring: base 50% + gap +8% + home HT history +10% + away HT history +8% + H2H +0% + structural low 1H scorers +5% + market pricing error +0% = 81%. |
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| 17-08-2026 10:15 |
Melbourne Victory NPL |
- |
Northcote City |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
FT expected total 3.45 (A 2.50, B 1.30, C 1.70, D 1.40) clears the 3.0 line by 0.45; home 6/10 over 3.0, away 4/10 over with 2 pushes (not actively under). H2H only one match (1-0), mutual-opponent total 3.23 supports over, and bookmaker mispricing GL_5 2.00 home/1.90 away is high and accelerating. Raw score 88% capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
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| 17-08-2026 15:00 |
Slovan Bratislava B |
- |
FK Humenne |
Over 2.5 Goals |
74% |
Expected FT total is 2.95 (home 1.70 scored at home, away 1.10 conceded away, away 1.50 scored away, home 1.60 conceded home) vs the 2.5 line, a +0.45 gap. Both teams are 7/10 (70%) over 2.5 in recent matches, H2H is empty, and the shot-based cross-check also clears the line. Bookmaker mispricing is mild only (GL_5 home 1.25, away 1.15), with no strong structural flags. |
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| 17-08-2026 15:00 |
Polissya Zhytomyr |
- |
FC Zorya Lugansk |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total is 3.50 vs a 2.50 line (home 3.10 scored/1.20 conceded at home, away 1.20 scored/1.50 conceded away). Polissya are 9/10 over 2.5 and Zorya are 8/10 over 2.5; Zorya conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches. H2H is only two meetings (0-0, 2-0) so it is treated as neutral; raw score 98% is capped at the standard 82% ceiling. |
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| 17-08-2026 15:45 |
FK Dziugas Telsiai |
- |
Suduva Marijampole |
Suduva Marijampole -0.25 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Suduva's AH record is 4W-1L in their last 5 (80% cover) and they have won 4 of their last 5 away games, including 2-1 at FK Dziugas Telsiai in June. H2H is 2W-1D in Suduva's favour across the last 3 meetings, and mutual opponents show Suduva averaging 5.25 shots on target versus Dziugas' 3.8. |
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| 17-08-2026 16:00 |
JK Nomme United II |
- |
JK Nomme Kalju II |
Over 3.5,4.0 Goals |
80% |
Expected full-time total is 4.20 ((1.5+2.9)/2 + (1.2+2.8)/2) vs a 3.5/4.0 line. Away side has gone over 3.5/4.0 in 7 of 10 matches (70%) while home is 5 of 10 (50%); mutual opponents total is 4.14 and JK Nomme Kalju II conceded 2+ in each of its last 5 away matches, reinforcing the over. |
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| 17-08-2026 16:00 |
FC Kiisto |
- |
KPV Akatemia |
Over 4.5 Goals |
76% |
Expected total is 4.75 (Kiisto 2.50 scored/1.50 conceded at home; KPV 2.10 scored/3.40 conceded away) vs line 4.5. Kiisto 5/10 and KPV 5/10 last matches went over 4.5; sole H2H ended 4-4. Market pricing error is strong (home GL_5 2.50, away GL_5 2.30, both accelerating), with a 2nd-vs-11th quality gap and KPV conceding 2+ in 3 of last 5 away. |
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| 17-08-2026 16:00 |
Trinec |
- |
FK Usti nad Labem |
Over 2.75 Goals |
78% |
Expected FT total 2.85 (home A 1.30, away B 1.50, away C 1.70, home D 1.20 → (1.30+1.50)/2+(1.70+1.20)/2=2.85) vs 2.75 line. Usti are 7/10 over (70%), mutual-opponents total is 4.5, and Usti conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away; home market pricing error GL_5 1.80 supports Over. Confidence: Base 50% + away history 8% + common opponents 5% + home GL5 5% + away fragility 5% + weak GK 5% = 78% (gap/home/likelihood +0%). |
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| 17-08-2026 16:00 |
FC Gagra |
- |
FC Spaeri |
Over 2.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected FT total is 2.85 vs the 2.5 line (Gagra 1.40 scored/1.10 conceded at home; Spaeri 1.50 scored/1.70 conceded away). Spaeri have gone over 2.5 in 6 of 10 matches and Gagra in 5 of 10, with both H2H meetings finishing over (3-0, 0-3). Bookmaker mispricing aligns Over with home GL_5 1.50 and away GL_5 1.90, while the common-opponent total of 2.36 is the main negative. |
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| 17-08-2026 17:00 |
Arka Gdynia |
- |
Puszcza Niepolomice |
Over 1.0 1st Half Goals |
82% |
1st-half expected total is 1.45 goals vs line 1.0 (Arka home HT 0.70 scored/1.00 conceded; Puszcza away HT 0.40 scored/0.80 conceded). Puszcza's away 1st-half matches cleared 1.0 in 3 of 5, and they concede 67% of goals inside 30 minutes. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate and accelerating for both teams (GL_5 1.60 home, 1.55 away), supporting the over; confidence 82% capped at the standard ceiling. |
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| 17-08-2026 18:00 |
All Boys |
- |
Nueva Chicago |
All Boys +0 Asian Handicap |
65% |
All Boys are unbeaten at home in Group A (3W 9D 0L, 18 pts) while Nueva Chicago are 3W 1D 7L away with five straight away defeats and just one goal in ten away matches. Mutual-opponent data favours All Boys: h 1W 2D 0L, 0.67 scored/0.33 conceded vs a 0W 0D 3L, 0.00 scored/1.67 conceded. Goal-line expected total was only 1.60 against a 1.5 line (+0.10, not a qualifying edge) and no Asian Corners line was offered, so the level-ball home handicap is the best option. |
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| 17-08-2026 18:00 |
Volsungur |
- |
IF Vestri |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.90 goals (A=2.00, B=2.80, C=0.80, D=2.20) vs 3.25 line; shot-based match potential 5.86 also supports Over. Volsungur home games over 3.25 in 3 of 5 and IF Vestri away games over in 3 of 5; mutual-opponent total 3.47 clears the line, and Vestri have conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away. HT was checked but skipped as Volsungur's home 1H Over rate is only 40%, so FT Over is stronger. |
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| 17-08-2026 18:00 |
Valur Reykjavik |
- |
KA Akureyri |
Over 3.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 3.80 vs 3.5 line ((1.40+2.60)/2+(1.50+2.10)/2). Valur 6/10 and KA 7/10 recent matches over 3.5, and KA conceded 2+ in each of their last 5 away games; mutual-opponent total is 3.96. Away GL_5 of 1.75 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing favouring goals. |
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| 17-08-2026 18:00 |
Leiknir Reykjavik |
- |
KF Aegir |
Over 3.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 3.80 vs 3.5 line (home 1.30 scored, away 3.40 conceded, away 1.20 scored, home 1.70 conceded), supported by Aegir 70% over 3.5 and conceding 2+ in all last 5 away (3,6,8,3,2). Mutual-opponent total 3.67 clears the line and away bookmaker mispricing GL_5 2.35 signals over edge, though Leiknir's 30% over record tempers confidence. |
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| 17-08-2026 18:00 |
Grindavik |
- |
Grotta Seltjarnarnes |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.85 (home 0.60 scored/1.10 conceded at home; away 1.30 scored/0.70 conceded away) vs a 1.25 line, a +0.60 gap. Grotta have 2+ first-half goals in 6 of 10 matches (60%), and the lone H2H was 1-1 at HT. Grindavik's GL_5 bookmaker mispricing is 1.70, moderately aligned with the Over. |
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| 17-08-2026 18:00 |
IR Reykjavik |
- |
Njardvik |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals |
79% |
Expected first-half total is 1.70 (IR home HT: 0.60 scored/0.60 conceded; Njardvik away HT: 1.20 scored/1.00 conceded) vs a 1.25 line, a +0.45 gap. Njardvik have scored in 4 of their last 5 away first halves, and both sides show severe bookmaker mispricing on goal lines (home GL_5 2.20, away GL_5 2.55) with both above GL_10, supporting the over. |
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| 17-08-2026 18:15 |
Arda Kardzhali |
- |
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
Arda Kardzhali -0.75 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Arda hold a standings edge (6th, 7 pts vs Loko 10th, 2 pts) and dominate mutual opponents (7W-1D-2L vs 2W-4D-2L; +0.5 goals net vs 0.0; +3.0 total shots net vs -3.5). Corners have no posted line, and Over 2.5 scores only ~63% (expected total 2.75 vs line 2.5, but mutual total 2.05 and H2H 0-0 under), so the top qualifying play is home -0.75 AH at 65%. |
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| 17-08-2026 18:15 |
Arda Kardzhali |
- |
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
Arda Kardzhali -0.75 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Arda sit 6th (7 pts) vs Lokomotiv 10th (2 pts), and the mutual-opponents comparison strongly favours the home side: Arda NETs +0.5 goals, +3.0 total shots, +0.7 on target, +18.7 dangerous attacks vs Lokomotiv's 0.0, -3.5, -0.5, -19.0. Lokomotiv are 1W-4L ATS in their last 5, but Arda's own recent -0.75 margin cover rate is only about 40%, so this AH call is capped at the 65% qualifying line. |
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| 17-08-2026 19:15 |
Afturelding |
- |
HK Kopavogur |
Over 1.5 First Half Goals |
82% |
Expected 1st-half total is 2.45 vs a 1.5 line (Afturelding home HT 1.40 scored/0.80 conceded, HK Kopavogur away HT 1.80 scored/0.90 conceded), a gap of +0.95. Home 60% (6/10) and away 70% (7/10) have gone over 1.5 first-half goals, with bookmaker mispricing GL_5 home 1.75 and away 2.00; H2H is a single neutral meeting. |
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| 17-08-2026 19:15 |
Fram Reykjavik |
- |
Stjarnan |
Over 1.75 First Half Goals |
82% |
Expected 1st-half total is 2.05 (home 1.60 scored, 1.00 conceded at home; away 0.60 scored, 0.90 conceded away) against a 1.75 line, a +0.30 gap. Home went over 1.75 in 8/10 recent matches and away in 6/10, while bookmaker mispricing GL_5 is high for both teams (home 2.25, away 1.70), aligning with the over. |
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| 17-08-2026 19:30 |
3 de Noviembre |
- |
Club Atlético Tembetary |
Over 2.25 Goals |
78% |
Expected full-time total is 2.85 (home 1.00 scored/2.10 conceded at home; away 1.30 scored/1.30 conceded away) against a 2.25 line. Home 3 de Noviembre are 70% over 2.25 in last 10, mutual-opponent total is 2.84, and away market pricing error GL5 is 1.50 in the over direction; away are 40% over 2.25 with two totals exactly 2, so not fully contradicting. H2H is one 1-0 game, neutral sample. |
|
| 17-08-2026 20:00 |
Independiente Medellin Women |
- |
America de Cali Women |
Over 2.0 Goals |
76% |
Expected total is 2.55 vs line 2.0 (home 1.50 scored/1.40 conceded at home, away 1.50 scored/0.70 conceded away). Home are 6 of last 10 over 2.0, mutual-opponent total is 3.125, and away GL_5 of 1.70 shows moderate bookmaker mispricing. Away's recent away games are low-scoring, so the edge is capped but still supports the over-first approach. |
|
| 17-08-2026 20:00 |
Orsomarso Women |
- |
Deportivo Pasto Women |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
80% |
Expected 1st-half total: (0.50+1.10)/2 + (0.60+0.40)/2 = 1.30 vs a 0.75 line (+0.55 gap). Orsomarso's last 10 matches produced 1+ first-half goal in 7/10 (70%) and Deportivo Pasto's in 8/10 (80%); Pasto have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches, and their GL_5 market pricing error is 1.60 (moderate, accelerating), aligning with Over. |
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| 17-08-2026 22:00 |
General Caballero JLM |
- |
Tacuary |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total is 2.90 ((1.90+1.30)/2 + (1.30+1.30)/2) vs line 2.5. General Caballero JLM are Over 2.5 in 6 of 10 matches (60%) and Tacuary in 5 of 10 (50%); mutual opponents total 3.67 supports Over, while Tacuary conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (Resistencia, Independiente, 12 de Junio) with away GL_5 1.55 moderate bookmaker mispricing. Quality gap 3rd vs 14th plus away defensive fragility gives raw 86, capped at standard 82. |
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