| 18-08-2026 11:35 |
Shanghai Shenhua |
- |
Beijing Guoan |
Beijing Guoan +0.25 Asian Handicap |
68% |
Beijing are 5th (32 pts) vs Shenhua 10th (25 pts) and have covered +0.25 in 10/10 recent matches (8W 2D, 23-10 aggregate). Their away rank is 2nd (16 pts), mutual-opponents goals net edge is +0.56 vs +0.40, and H2H was 1-1, supporting the +0.25. Goal-line Over cases missed the 65% bar (FT raw 60%, HT raw 65%) and corners had no line. |
|
| 18-08-2026 12:00 |
Bristol City U21 |
- |
Wigan U21 |
Over 3.5,4.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected FT goals 4.15 ((2.30+2.10)/2 + (2.30+1.60)/2) vs line 3.75; shot-based cross-check also points over. Bristol City 6/10 and Wigan 6/9 recent matches had 4+ total goals; H2H was 2-3 (5 goals) and mutual opponents total 4.17. Wigan have conceded 2+ in five straight away games and opponents average 6.11 shots on target against them in mutual opponents. Scoring: Base 50% + gap +8% + home history +5% + away history +5% + H2H +0% + common opponents +5% + likelihood +0% + market pricing error +0% + structural (away defensive fragility) +5% = 78%. |
|
| 18-08-2026 12:00 |
Peterborough U21 |
- |
QPR U21 |
Over 3.5/4.0 Goals |
81% |
FT expected total = (1.90+1.90)/2+(2.10+2.10)/2 = 4.00 vs 3.75 line; mutual opponents total 4.44; QPR away conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away; market pricing error GL_5 1.85 for both teams and expected total is above the line. Confidence: 50 base +5 gap +0 home history (5/10 over) +0 away history (5/10 over) +0 H2H (2-2, one match neutral) +5 mutual opponents +0 likelihood +8 GL_5 home +8 GL_5 away +5 away defensive fragility = 81%. |
|
| 18-08-2026 16:00 |
Heidenheim |
- |
Bayern Munich |
Over 3.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 3.95 vs 3.5 line (Heidenheim 1.9 home scored/2.0 conceded; Bayern 2.5 away scored/1.5 conceded). Heidenheim 6/10 over 3.5, Bayern 4/10, but mutual-opponent total is 4.3 and H2H totals are 6 and 4; home market pricing error GL_5 2.10 strong/accelerating. Scoring: base 50 + gap 9 + home history 5 + common opponents 5 + quality gap 5 + pricing error 4 = 78. |
|
| 18-08-2026 16:30 |
IF Karlstad Fotboll |
- |
Sandvikens IF |
Sandvikens IF -0.75 Asian Handicap |
65% |
Sandvikens play one tier above IF Karlstad (Superettan vs Ettan Norra) and are clear market favourites; mutual-opponent stats favour Sandvikens (W2 D0 L0 vs W1 D0 L1, goals NET +1.0 vs -0.5). The current line is +0.75 home / -0.75 away, and while Sandvikens' last-5 AH cover is only 2W-0V-3L, two of three AH signals support the away side. |
|
| 18-08-2026 16:30 |
Karlbergs BK |
- |
IK Brage |
Over 3.0 Goals |
78% |
Full-time expected total is 3.70 (Karlbergs home 1.70 scored/1.40 conceded; Brage away 2.00 scored/2.30 conceded) vs the 3.0 line. Brage's last 10: 7/10 over 3.0 goals and conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away; the one H2H finished 2-3 over. Brage's goal-line bookmaker mispricing is 1.65 moderate, supporting the Over. |
|
| 18-08-2026 16:30 |
IFK Skövde FK |
- |
Falkenbergs FF |
Over 3.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected FT total is 3.45 (home 2.00 scored/1.30 conceded at home; away 2.00 scored/1.60 conceded away) vs line 3.5, with mutual-opponent total 4.5 and H2H 3-2 supporting Over. Home/away recent histories are only 40% over 3.5, but Falkenbergs conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (2-1, 2-4, 4-2) and IFK Skövde conceded 4+ in two recent home games. Market pricing error GL_5 0.70/0.85 is well-calibrated, so no extra variance edge. |
|
| 18-08-2026 16:30 |
Nosaby |
- |
IFK Trelleborg |
Over 3.0 Goals |
75% |
Expected total 3.70 vs line 3.0 (home avg scored 2.10/conceded 2.10; away scored 2.10/conceded 1.10). Nosaby are 6/10 over 3.0 and IFK Trelleborg 4/10 over with 2 pushes; H2H 1-1 is neutral. Confidence: Base 50% + gap from line +14% + home history +5% + away history +0% + H2H +0% + common opponents +0% (mutual_total 2.86 within 0.15) + likelihood +3% + GL_5 +0/+0 + structural form surge +3% = 75%. |
|
| 18-08-2026 17:00 |
Central Espanol Reserves |
- |
Penarol Reserves |
Central Espanol Reserves +0.5 Asian Handicap |
66% |
Central Espanol Reserves have covered +0.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and hold the better current Clausura home/away split (5th at home vs Penarol 10th away). Mutual opponents lean Penarol (4-1 stat advantage, goals NET +0.86 vs -0.29), capping confidence at 66. Goal lines show no edge: FT expected 2.85 vs 3.0 with away games over 3.0 just 1/10, and HT expected 1.20 vs 1.25 with weak Over history. |
|
| 18-08-2026 17:00 |
Nykobing |
- |
Naestved |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.50 (home 2.90 scored / 0.90 conceded at home; away 1.50 scored / 1.70 conceded away) vs line 2.75 gives a +0.75 gap. Nykobing are 8/10 over 2.75 in team matches and Naestved 6/10 over, with Naestved conceding 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away (5.1 shots on target conceded away); the only H2H finished 2-2. Both teams' GL_5 is 1.50 (moderate bookmaker mispricing); raw score 90% capped at the standard 82% ceiling since away history is below 70% and H2H sample is under 3. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:00 |
AC Bellinzona |
- |
Basel II |
Over 4.5 Corners (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1H corners 5.65 vs line 4.5; AC Bellinzona home 1H matches went Over 4.5 in 8/10 (80%) and Basel II 7/10 (70%). Both sides are bottom and need points, and Basel II concede 6.1 shots on target/17 total shots away, supporting corner pressure. Home GL_5 2.35 and away 2.00 show bookmaker mispricing on goal line, but the cleaner edge is 1H corners, raw 83 capped at 82. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:00 |
Keflavik Women |
- |
KR Reykjavik Women |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.45 goals (home 1.50 scored/1.40 conceded; away 2.60 scored/1.40 conceded) vs 3.25 line. Keflavik 3/9 over 3.25, KR 6/10 over 3.25; mutual-opponent total 3.58 and away c_avg_on_target 5.33 show over pressure. Away conceded 2+ in all last 5 away; home GL_5 2.45/away GL_5 1.60 mark bookmaker mispricing; raw score 83 capped at 82. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:00 |
Newell's Reserves |
- |
Lanus Reserves |
Over 2.25 Goals |
66% |
Expected total 2.65 (home 1.40 scored/1.00 conceded at home; away 1.60 scored/1.30 conceded away) vs 2.25 line. Shot model potential 5.80 (35.0 shots / 6.04 ratio) and mutual-opponent total 2.78 support Over. Home match history 40% Over 2.25 (last 3: 0-1,1-1,1-1), away 50% (last 3: 3-1,0-0,1-0); H2H 2-0 to Lanus (single sample neutral). Confidence: Base 50% + gap +8% + common opponents +5% + likelihood +3% = 66%. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:00 |
Solihull Moors |
- |
Middlesbrough U21 |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 3.45 (Solihull home 1.30 scored/2.00 conceded, Middlesbrough away 2.50 scored/1.10 conceded) clears the 3.25 midpoint; mutual opponents averaged 3.9 total goals against shared opposition. Away-side bookmaker mispricing is severe (GL_5 3.35, accelerating) with home GL_5 1.75 also pointing Over. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:00 |
Boreham Wood |
- |
Leeds U21 |
Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
80% |
Expected 1st-half total is 1.05 (home HT A/B: 0.80/0.80, away HT C/D: 0.20/0.30) against a 1.5 line. Boreham Wood are 7/10 under 1.5 HT and Leeds U21 5/8 under 1.5 HT, with Leeds failing to score in the first half in all 4 recent away games. No H2H data; Leeds' 1.65 GL_5 market pricing error also points to the under direction. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:00 |
Gateshead |
- |
Nottm Forest U21 |
Nottm Forest U21 -0.5 Asian Handicap |
67% |
Nottm Forest U21 have won their last 5 matches by at least one goal, covering a -0.5 line each time, and their AH record is 4W-0L-1V vs Gateshead's 2W-3L. Mutual opponents show a 3-2 stat edge to the away side with a goals NET of +0.4 vs -1.0. FT goal line Over 3.0 fails: expected total 2.90 vs line 3.0, home/away over records 30% and 11%, and mutual total 1.70 contradicts Over. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:00 |
Halifax |
- |
Derby U21 |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 4.20 vs 3.50 line (+0.70): Halifax home 2.00 GF/3.10 GA, Derby U21 away 1.40 GF/1.90 GA. Halifax are 9/10 over 3.5 in recent matches and Derby U21 conceded 2+ in 4/5 away; H2H/mutual opponents neutral, home GL_5 market pricing error 2.25 (strong). Scoring: 50+14+10+0+0+0+3+8+5+5=95, capped at 82 standard. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:00 |
Stockport |
- |
Everton U21 |
Over 10 Corners |
74% |
Expected corners 11.40 vs 10.0 line (Stockport home 6.5 + Everton U21 away conceded 6.0; Everton U21 away 5.4 + Stockport home conceded 4.9), a +1.40 corner gap. Stockport are League One 2nd hosting an Everton U21 side whose away defence concedes high corner volume, and the mutual-opponent shot/dang attack data shows sustained pressure against shared opposition. Match history over 10 corners is neutral at 50% for both teams, but the structural quality gap and over-first corner philosophy favour Over. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:30 |
Worthing |
- |
West Ham U21 |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected FT total is 3.75 vs the 3.25 line: Worthing home 2.30 scored / 1.10 conceded; West Ham U21 away 2.20 scored / 1.90 conceded. West Ham U21 away matches are 6/10 over 3.25 and conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away (Brighton 3-0, Tottenham 3-2, Blackburn 2-4, Boreham Wood 9-8), with a 5.4 average total across their last 10. No H2H data; GL_5 is 1.15 for both teams, so no pricing-error uplift. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:30 |
Braintree Town |
- |
Ipswich U21 |
Over 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
HT expected total 2.10 (Braintree 0.70 scored/1.10 conceded at home, Ipswich 1.40 scored/1.00 conceded away) vs 1.25 line, gap +0.85. Home 6/10 (60%) and away 4/7 (57%) first halves go over 1.25; no H2H data. Full-time away history only 43% over 3.25, making 1H cleaner; bookmaker mispricing severe for Ipswich (GL_5 3.30) and moderate for Braintree (GL_5 1.75), both aligning Over. Raw score 87% capped at standard 82%. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Dover |
- |
Tonbridge Angels |
Over 2.75 Goals |
73% |
Expected FT total: A=1.20, B=1.40, C=2.30, D=1.90 → (1.20+1.40)/2 + (2.30+1.90)/2 = 3.40 vs line 2.75 (+0.65 gap). Tonbridge away over 2.75 in 2/3 recent (4-0, 6-1, 1-1); Dover home 3/6 (50%, not contradicting); mutual-opponent total 3.35 supports Over; H2H 2-0 only 1 match neutral. Scoring: base 50 + gap 10 + home history 0 + away history 5 + H2H 0 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 + GL_5 home 0 + GL_5 away 0 + structural 0 = 73%. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Walton & Hersham |
- |
Dag & Red |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total = (1.60+1.40)/2 + (1.70+1.90)/2 = 3.30 vs line 2.75 (+0.55 gap). Home 7/10 recent matches over 2.75, away 6/10; H2H empty; mutual-opponent total 2.84 supports over. Confidence: base 50 + gap 11 + home history 8 + away history 5 + common opponents 5 + likelihood 3 = 82 (standard ceiling). |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Slough |
- |
Farnham |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.65 vs 2.75 line (A=1.70, B=1.40, C=1.00, D=3.20). Slough 8/10 matches over 2.75, Farnham 5/10; H2H empty, mutual opponents neutral (g<2). Farnham conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (Dag & Red 2, Rochdale 2, Ashford 4) and Slough GL_5 2.00 bookmaker mispricing +8%; raw score 91% capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Torquay |
- |
Weston Super Mare |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected FT total 2.75 vs line 2.5: A=1.60, B=1.20, C=1.30, D=1.40. Torquay are 7/10 over 2.5, Weston 6/10 over 2.5, and H2H is 3/3 over 2.5 (totals 3,3,4). Mutual-opponent total is 3.86 and Weston conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away. Scoring: base 50 + gap +5 + home history +8 + H2H +5 + mutual +5 + away fragility +5 = 78% (away history 60% and likelihood +3 excluded by stacking discipline; GL_5 both <1.0 so no pricing-error adjustment). |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Oxford City |
- |
Harborough Town |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 2.85 (A=1.70 home scored, B=1.20 away conceded, C=1.90 away scored, D=0.90 home conceded) vs line 2.5. Both Oxford City and Harborough Town are 6/10 over 2.5 in their last 10 matches; H2H is empty. Away GL_5 is 1.65 (moderate bookmaker mispricing) aligned with the Over, and Harborough conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches (2-2 Quorn, 4-4 Real Bedford, 2-2 Real Bedford). |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Morecambe |
- |
South Shields |
Over 2.5 Goals |
70% |
Morecambe home score avg 1.20 and concede 1.80 while South Shields away score 1.90 and concede 1.10, giving expected FT total 3.00 vs the 2.5 line. Mutual opponents combined average total is 3.995, and South Shields have conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 league away (Radcliffe, Kings Lynn, Hereford), supporting Over. The +0.50 expected-goal gap, mutual-opponent Over support, and away defensive fragility produce 70% confidence. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Spalding United |
- |
Macclesfield |
Over 2.75 Goals |
78% |
Spalding average 2.20 scored/1.30 conceded at home while Macclesfield average 2.00 scored/1.10 conceded away, giving an expected total of 3.30 against the 2.75 line. Macclesfield have gone over 2.75 in 6 of their last 10 matches, and bookmaker mispricing is moderate for both sides (home GL_5 1.75, away GL_5 1.60) in the Over direction. The 0.55-goal gap and away scoring volume support Over despite some low Spalding recent totals. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Hereford FC |
- |
Radcliffe FC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total = (1.40+2.30)/2 + (1.00+1.40)/2 = 3.05 vs 2.75 line, with the shot-based match potential also at 4.99; Hereford are 7/10 over 2.75 and Radcliffe 6/10 over, while H2H totals 4, 8, 1 (2/3 over) and mutual-opponents average 3.73. Radcliffe conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches, and their GL_5 of 1.50 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Hebburn Town |
- |
Worksop |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total = (2.20+1.30)/2+(2.40+1.10)/2 = 3.50 vs 2.75 line (+0.75); Hebburn 6/10 over 2.75, Worksop 7/10, H2H empty, mutual opponents neutral (g<2). Breakdown: Base 50% + gap 15% + home history 5% + away history 8% + H2H 0% + common opponents 0% + likelihood 0% + market pricing error home 8% (GL_5 2.05) + away 5% (GL_5 1.75) + structural 0% = 91% raw capped at 82% standard ceiling (likelihood +3% and form +3% excluded under stacking discipline; home history <70% blocks elevated). |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Hednesford |
- |
Southport |
Over 2.5/3.0 Goals |
80% |
FT expected total: Hednesford 1.60 scored/1.50 conceded at home + Southport 1.40 scored/1.50 conceded away = 3.00 vs 2.75 line (+0.25). Southport are 6/10 over this line and conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 away; Hednesford are 4/7 over at home. Confidence 80%: base 50 + gap 5 + away history 5 + common opponents 5 + market pricing error home GL5 1.55 +5 + away GL5 1.60 +5 + away defensive fragility 5 = 80%. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Ilkeston |
- |
Warrington Town |
Over 2.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected total is 2.70 goals (Ilkeston home 1.20 scored/1.20 conceded; Warrington away 1.20 scored/1.80 conceded) against a 2.5 line. Warrington are 6/10 over 2.5 and have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away matches (Marine 2-1, Stockton 2-1, Cleethorpes 4-1), while mutual opponents produce a combined 2.88 total supporting Over. H2H has only 2 matches and is treated as neutral; home market pricing error is mild (GL_5 1.45). |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Hyde Utd |
- |
FC United of Manchester |
Over 2.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 2.75 (Hyde home scored 1.20, conceded 1.30; FC United away scored 1.20, conceded 1.80) vs line 2.5. Hyde are 6/10 over 2.5, FC United 5/10, mutual opponents total 3.05; FC United have conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (Macclesfield 2-0, Southport 2-0, Stockton 3-2). |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Tamworth |
- |
Newcastle U21 |
Over 1.25 First Half Goals |
70% |
Expected 1st-half total = (1.00+0.70)/2 + (1.30+0.70)/2 = 1.85 vs the 1.0/1.5 line, a +0.60 goal gap. Newcastle U21 went over 1.25 HT goals in 7 of 8 recent matches (87.5%) and Tamworth in 5 of 10 at home (50%), so the away-side history is strongly supportive while the home side does not contradict. Confidence: 50 base +10 gap +0 home HT history +10 away HT history +0 H2H +0 structural/market pricing error = 70%; Asian corners are unquoted and the AH is split/no clear edge. |
|
| 18-08-2026 18:45 |
Barnet |
- |
Arsenal U21 |
Over 4.5 Corners (1st Half) |
75% |
Expected 1H corners 5.30 (home 3.60 + away conceded 2.90 / away 2.40 + home conceded 1.70) vs 4.5 line, a +0.8 corner gap. Barnet 1H matches went over 4.5 corners in 8 of 10 (80%), with last three HT totals at 5, 5, 7; Arsenal U21 conceded 2.90 corners per 1H away and their last three away HT totals were 3, 11, 5. Home pressing/quality gap supports Over. |
|
| 18-08-2026 19:00 |
SC Farense U23 |
- |
Estoril U23 |
Under 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.20 ((1.10+1.10)/2 + (1.20+1.00)/2) is below the 2.5 line; Farense are 4/4 under 2.5 at home and Estoril are 4/5 under 2.5 away. H2H is 4/4 under 2.5 (1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 0-2), and Farense have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 home matches. Confidence: base 50% + gap 5% + home history 10% + away history 10% + H2H 5% + common opponents 5% + scoring drought 5% = 85%, capped at 82% standard ceiling. |
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