| 05-05-2026 00:30 |
Gimnasia y Tiro |
- |
Agropecuario |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
79% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.15 goals (home HT avg 0.60 + away conceded HT avg 0.60 / 2 + away HT avg 0.30 + home conceded HT avg 0.80 / 2) well above the 0.75 line. Home team's last 4 home matches had 3 of 4 HT over this line (75%), away team's last 5 away matches had 3 of 5 (60%). Home scores 50% of goals in the first half and away concedes early, creating strong Over value in this specific half. |
|
| 05-05-2026 00:30 |
San Marcos De Arica |
- |
Deportes Recoleta |
Over 2.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals (2.85) is significantly above the line of 2.25, driven by away team's high scoring (2.00 avg away) and defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away). Deportes Recoleta's away matches have gone Over 2.25 in 4 of their last 5 (80%), and H2H history shows 3 of 4 Overs. Additionally, bookmaker mispricing on the away side is severe (GL_5=2.70, accelerating), adding further edge to the Over. |
|
| 05-05-2026 00:30 |
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto |
- |
Instituto AC Cordoba |
Over 1.75 Goals |
73% |
Expected total goals calculated from averages (home avg 0.40 scored at home, away avg 1.00 conceded away; away avg 1.00 scored away, home avg 1.10 conceded at home) equals the line of 1.75. Home team's home matches have gone Over in 5/6 (83%) and away team's away matches in 4/5 (80%), both strongly supporting Over. Market mispricing is mild (home GL_5 1.35) but neutral given the line match, while structural factors (both teams needing points) encourage open play. |
|
| 05-05-2026 00:30 |
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto |
- |
Instituto AC Cordoba |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
73% |
Expected total computed as 1.75 (home avg 0.40 + away concede 1.00, away avg 1.00 + home concede 1.10, averaged). Home team's last 6 home matches had 83% (5/6) over 1.75; away team's last 5 away matches had 80% (4/5) over 1.75. H2H 1-1 draw supports over. Bookmaker mispricing mild (home GL_5=1.35). Over bet preferred per philosophy. |
|
| 05-05-2026 00:30 |
Gimnasia y Tiro |
- |
Agropecuario |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
81% |
Expected 1st half goals are 1.15 based on home (0.60 avg) and away (0.30 avg) scoring, plus home conceded (0.80) and away conceded (0.60), well above the 0.75 line (+0.40 gap). Gimnasia y Tiro's home matches have 75% Over in 1st half (3 of 4), while Agropecuario's away 1st half has 60% Over (3 of 5). No H2H data conflicts, and the gap from the line supports an Over bet. |
|
| 05-05-2026 01:00 |
Inter San Carlos |
- |
Escorpiones de Belen FC |
Inter San Carlos -0.25 (Asian Handicap) |
82% |
Inter San Carlos have covered the -0.25 handicap in 80% of their last 5 home matches (4/5) and in all 5 of their most recent home wins, averaging a margin of 1.83 goals. Escorpiones de Belen FC have lost the Asian Handicap in 3 of their last 5 away matches, with a high handicap variance (AH_5=2.15) indicating systematic mispricing against them on the road. Moreover, Inter are unbeaten at home this season (6-1-0) and won the most recent H2H at home 1-0, reinforcing the likelihood of a cover. |
|
| 05-05-2026 05:00 |
Jeonbuk Motors |
- |
Gwangju FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 2.80 goals (Jeonbuk avg 1.30 at home, Gwangju concede 2.80 away) exceeds the 2.5 line. Home match history shows 75% Over (3/4), away 60% Over (3/5). H2H split (2 over, 2 under) neutral. Structural: Gwangju conceded 2+ in 4 of 5 away games, and away variance GL_5 2.70 (accelerating) indicates severe bookmaker mispricing in favor of Over. |
|
| 05-05-2026 05:00 |
Bucheon |
- |
Jeju United |
1st Half Over 0.75 Goals |
65% |
Expected 1st half goals calculated at 0.75 (Bucheon home HT avg 0.10 conceded + Jeju away HT avg 0.50 scored, adjusted) exactly matching the line. Bucheon's last 5 home matches saw over 0.75 HT goals in 3/5 (60%), and Jeju's last 5 away matches also had over 0.75 HT goals in 3/5 (60%). Jeju scores in the 1st half in 60% of away games while Bucheon concedes in the 1st half in 60% of home games, creating a structural over pattern. Market pricing error is mild (home GL_5 1.05, away 0.70) providing no strong inhibition. |
|
| 05-05-2026 07:30 |
Gangwon FC |
- |
Pohang Steelers |
Over 8.5 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners 9.75 vs line 8.5 (gap +1.25). Home (Gangwon) average 6.30 corners at home with 5/5 matches over 8.5 (100%), while Pohang away matches (2/2) also went over. H2H corners split 2-2, but structural dominance from Gangwon's high corner output at home (avg 6.30, conceded only 3.70) yields an over edge. Combined with moderate bookmaker mispricing (home corner variance 1.90), this supports the over. |
|
| 05-05-2026 07:30 |
Daejeon Hana Citizen |
- |
Incheon Utd |
Under 8.5 Asian Corners |
78% |
Expected total corners is 7.90 (home avg 3.70 + away conceded 3.40 /2 + away avg 4.00 + home conceded 4.70 /2), below the 8.5 line. Daejeon's last 4 home matches saw under 8.5 corners in 75% (3/4) and Incheon's last 5 away matches had under 8.5 corners in 100% (5/5). H2H corners are mixed (2 over, 2 under), but the strong home and away under records plus the structural low-corner tendency make the under the best value. |
|
| 05-05-2026 08:30 |
Madura United |
- |
Bali United |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.75 (home avg 1.30 + away conceded 2.00 averaged with away avg 2.00 + home conceded 2.20) exceeds line of 2.75 by 1.0 goals. Madura United have gone over in all 5 home matches and Bali United in 4 of last 5 away matches. Bali have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of 5 away games, a structural over signal. Away team's GL_5 of 1.85 indicates strong bookmaker mispricing aligning with over direction. Confidence capped at 82% per standard ceiling. |
|
| 05-05-2026 08:30 |
Canberra White Eagles |
- |
Canberra Croatia FC |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
79% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.60 goals (home concedes 1.40 at home, away scores 0.80 away), exceeding the 1.5 line. Away team has gone over 1.5 in 3 of 4 away matches (75%), while home side concedes 1st half goals consistently. The quality gap (11th vs 2nd) and high market mispricing (home GL_5 2.50, away GL_5 1.60, both accelerating) further support this Over bet. H2H also produced 2 first-half goals in the most recent meeting. |
|
| 05-05-2026 09:00 |
Valentine Phoenix |
- |
Maitland FC |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total 1.95 vs line 1.5 gives a clear edge. Maitland FC's away matches show 67% over 1.5 HT goals and they score in the first half in 90% of away games, while Valentine Phoenix concede an average of 1.5 HT goals at home. The quality gap (Maitland 5th, Valentine 11th) further supports early pressure from the stronger side. |
|
| 05-05-2026 09:30 |
Sunshine Coast Wanderers Women |
- |
Brisbane City Women |
Over 2.75 (2.5/3.0) Goals |
78% |
Expected total 2.90 (home avg 1.30 + away conceded 0.70 and away avg 2.00 + home conceded 1.80) exceeds the 2.75 line. Away team Brisbane City has gone Over in 100% of away matches (3/3), while home Sunshine Coast has 60% Over at home (3/5). H2H also saw 3 goals (Over). Structural weakness: Sunshine Coast conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 home matches. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 home 1.25, away 1.30), so confidence is solid. |
|
| 05-05-2026 09:30 |
Lions FC |
- |
Holland Park Hawks |
Over 3.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected total goals 3.60 (home avg 2.40 conceded 1.10, away avg 2.30 conceded 1.40) just above line 3.5; Lions FC and Holland Park Hawks each have 60% of last 5 matches going Over 3.5; significant quality gap (Lions FC in top division vs lower) supports attacking play; home team's GL_5 variance 1.90 indicates persistent bookmaker mispricing on the Over side. |
|
| 05-05-2026 10:00 |
FC Seoul |
- |
FC Anyang |
Over 9 Asian Corners |
73% |
Expected total corners 9.65 (Seoul home avg 4.50, Anyang away conceded avg 7.00; Anyang away avg 3.40, Seoul home conceded avg 4.40) exceeds line of 9. Anyang's away corner history shows 60% over (3/5) and H2H corners 75% over (3/4). Structural quality gap (1st vs 7th) and Anyang conceding high away corners (avg 7.00) further support Over. Likelihood for Over 9 corners is 60%. |
|
| 05-05-2026 10:00 |
Ethiopia Nigd Bank |
- |
Kedus Giorgis |
Over 1.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 2.15 from home scoring 1.20 avg at home and conceding 1.20, away scoring 0.80 away and conceding 1.10 (formula (A+B)/2+(C+D)/2). 0.40 above the 1.75 line. 70% of home matches and 60% of away matches Over, H2H 75% Over. Away scoring form strong (2+ in 3 of last 5). Home scoring drought (1 goal in last 5) partially offsets. Market pricing error mild (home GL_5 1.20, away GL_5 1.45 accelerating). Confidence 76%. |
|
| 05-05-2026 11:00 |
Qingdao West Coast |
- |
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers |
Over 2.25 Goals |
67% |
Expected total 2.55 ((0.60+1.60)/2+(1.40+1.50)/2) exceeds the line 2.25 by 0.30 goals. H2H strongly supports Over (3 of 4 matches over), and away team Tianjin has 56% Over in away matches. Home team Qingdao's GL_5 of 1.50 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction. Both sides are in the lower half of the table, needing points, which typically leads to an open, attacking match. |
|
| 05-05-2026 11:00 |
National United SC |
- |
Noida City FC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
68% |
Expected total is 3.70 (home avg 1.90 at home, away conceded 1.00 away, home conceded 2.60 at home, away avg 1.90 away). Home team's last 4 home matches are 50% over 3.0; away team's last 2 away matches are 50% over. No H2H data. Market pricing error is strong for home (GL_5=2.00), indicating consistent bookmaker underestimation of goals when National United SC is involved, supporting the over direction. |
|
| 05-05-2026 11:35 |
Liaoning Ironman |
- |
Chengdu Rongcheng |
Over 2.5, 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.35 (Liaoning home avg 1.20, concedes 1.50; Chengdu away avg 2.80, concedes 1.20) well above line of 2.5/3.0. Home history shows 3 of 4 (75%) home matches over 2.5, away history 4 of 5 (80%) away matches over 2.5. Massive quality gap: top-of-table Chengdu vs 9th-placed Liaoning, creating sustained attacking pressure. Liaoning's scoring drought (1 goal in last 5) partially offset by Chengdu's attacking strength and away defensive fragility. Market mispricing mild (GL_5 1.15 home, 1.10 away), no adjustment needed. |
|
| 05-05-2026 11:35 |
Shandong Taishan |
- |
Shanghai Shenhua |
Over 5.0 1st Half Corners |
75% |
Expected 1st half corners 6.25 (Shandong 2.9 HT home, Shanghai 4.5 HT away) vs line 5.0, gap +1.25. Shanghai have 80% of last 10 matches over 5 HT corners, Shandong 50%. Away team's high corner rate and structural pressing create edge. Likelihood of 75% supports Over. |
|
| 05-05-2026 12:00 |
FK Karvan |
- |
Neftchi Baku |
FK Karvan +1.5 (Asian Handicap) |
75% |
FK Karvan have covered +1.5 in 4 of their last 5 home matches (80%), consistently losing by narrow margins (avg 0.6 goals). Neftchi Baku's away form is inconsistent (2 wins in 5 away) and they failed to cover the corresponding handicap in recent matches. The H2H saw Karvan lose 1-2, covering +1.5. Despite the large standings gap (12th vs 5th), Karvan's home resilience and the home team's high GL_5 (2.10) indicate bookmaker mispricing on goals, suggesting the underdog is undervalued. |
|
| 05-05-2026 12:00 |
Borneo FC |
- |
Persita Tangerang |
Over 9.5 Corners |
70% |
Expected total corners 10.10 (home avg 4.80 + away conceded 5.00 averaged with away avg 4.60 + home conceded 5.80) exceeds line 9.5 by 0.60. Away team's corner history shows 60% over this line (6/10 matches) and structural quality gap favors sustained home pressure. H2H corners are neutral (2 over, 2 under in 4 meetings). Confidence: base 50% + gap +5% + away history +5% + structural quality gap +5% + dominant pressing +5% = 70%. |
|
| 05-05-2026 12:00 |
Dire Dawa |
- |
Ethiopian Coffee |
Over 1.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 2.30 (Dire Dawa's 0.70 avg home goals + Ethiopian Coffee's 1.50 avg away goals, split) exceeds the 1.75 line, and both teams have 70% of recent full-time matches going Over (7/10 each). H2H confirms with 3 of 4 meetings Over, and Ethiopian Coffee's accelerating market mispricing (GL_5 1.50, up from 1.40) gives additional edge to the Over side. |
|
| 05-05-2026 13:00 |
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC |
- |
Arba Minch |
Over 1.5 Goals (Asian Handicap 1.5,2.0) |
82% |
Expected full-time goals 2.25 (from home avg 1.10 + away conceded away 1.20, away avg 1.10 + home conceded home 1.10) exceed the line of 1.75 by 0.5 goals. Both teams have 60% of recent matches (6/10) going over the line, H2H history is 2/3 over, and both teams are in the relegation zone needing points, creating open play. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (home GL_5 1.40, away GL_5 1.20) but direction aligns with over, supporting the pick. |
|
| 05-05-2026 13:00 |
Gokulam Kerala FC |
- |
Aizawl FC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.75 (home 1.5 scored/2.2 conceded + away 1.5 scored/2.3 conceded) exceeds line 3.0 by 0.75 goals. H2H shows 3 of last 4 matches with 3+ goals (4-2, 2-1, 4-3). Strong bookmaker mispricing: home GL_5 2.90 (severe, accelerating), away GL_5 1.60 (moderate). Structural support as Aizawl conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches. |
|
| 05-05-2026 13:15 |
Singida Fountain Gate FC |
- |
Coastal Union |
Over 1.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total goals 1.95 (home avg 0.50 + away conceded away 1.50 averaged with away scored away 0.90 + home conceded home 1.00) exceeds the line of 1.75. Singida's last 5 home matches had 3 of 5 Over (60%), and Coastal Union's last 5 away matches had 4 of 5 Over (80%). H2H shows 3 of 4 matches over 1.75 (75%). Away team's GL_5 of 1.15 indicates mild bookmaker mispricing on goals conceded, supporting the Over direction. |
|
| 05-05-2026 14:05 |
Ajman SCC |
- |
Al Jazira SC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals from averages is 3.20 (Ajman 1.50 home, Al Jazira 2.20 away) vs line 2.75. Al Jazira's last 4 away matches all had over 2.5 total goals (100%), and H2H history shows 3 of 4 meetings exceeding 2.5 goals. Additionally, Al Jazira's goal line mispricing is high (GL_5=1.85) and accelerating, further supporting a productive away attack. |
|
| 05-05-2026 14:15 |
Al Gharafa |
- |
Al-Wakrah SC |
Over 3.0 Goals |
70% |
Expected total goals calculated as (1.40+1.40)/2 + (2.60+2.40)/2 = 3.90, which is 0.90 above the 3.0 line. Al Gharafa's home GL_5 of 1.60 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing on goals, aligning with the Over direction. H2H results show 2 of the last 4 meetings had over 3 goals (3-3, 3-2), and likelihood data indicates a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals. Despite mixed individual team histories (home 2/5, away 2/4 over 3.0), the expected total and market error provide sufficient edge for the Over bet. |
|
| 05-05-2026 15:30 |
Azam FC |
- |
Namungo FC |
Under 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Azam FC have conceded 0 goals in 9 home league matches this season, and Namungo FC average only 0.7 goals away. Both teams' recent match history shows 80% under 2.5 goals (4/5 for Azam at home, 4/5 for Namungo away), and head-to-head is 75% under (3/4). Expected total of 1.95 goals is well below the 2.5 line, supporting an under bet with strong structural signals. |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:00 |
MSK Zilina |
- |
MFK Zemplin Michalovce |
ASIAN HANDICAP - MSK Zilina -1.25 |
68% |
Zilina (4th, 49 pts) host lowly Michalovce (6th, 38 pts) in the Championship Round. At home, Zilina have covered a -1.25 handicap in 4 of their last 5 matches, winning by 2+ goals against Kosice, Dunajska Streda, Podbrezova, and Trencin. While H2H is mixed (2 covers in 4 meetings), the quality gap and home dominance provide structural support. No other market shows a clear edge: goal line expected 2.80 vs 3.0 (below), corners expected 9.95 vs 10 (below), and 1st half lines lack consistent support. |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:00 |
FC Flora Tallinn |
- |
JK Trans Narva |
Over 1.25 1st Half Goals |
73% |
Expected 1st half goals: (Flora HT home avg 0.70 + Narva HT away conceded avg 1.20)/2 + (Narva HT away scored avg 0.80 + Flora HT home conceded avg 0.50)/2 = 1.60, 0.35 above the 1.25 line. Narva's last 10 matches show 80% of 1st halves had over 1.25 goals, and Flora's dominant home form and the quality gap (3rd vs 10th) add structural edge. H2H shows low-scoring full-time games but no 1st half data to contradict. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (away GL_5 1.40). |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:00 |
Torpedo Kutaisi |
- |
FC Rustavi |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.85 goals ((0.60+0.10)/2 + (0.60+0.40)/2). Torpedo have gone Under 1.0 HT in 80% of their last 10, Rustavi in 90%. H2H first match HT ended 1-0 (Under). Strong consistent pattern of low-scoring first halves, with no structural Over signals. Confidence 75% meets the 72% minimum for Under bets. |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:00 |
SC Kfar Qasim |
- |
Hapoel Akko |
Over 2.25 Goals |
66% |
Expected total goals 2.55 exceeds line 2.25 by +0.30, supported by SC Kfar Qasim's 80% Over rate at home (4/5) and Hapoel Akko's 60% Over rate away (3/5), plus away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away). Away team's GL_5 of 2.00 (accelerating from 1.50) signals bookmaker mispricing toward Over. However, H2H (3 of 4 under 2.5) contradicts, reducing confidence. |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:00 |
Hapoel Ramat Gan |
- |
Maccabi Petach Tikva |
Over 2.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected total 3.10 (home 1.70 avg at home + away 1.40 conceded averaged with away 2.00 scored + home 1.10 conceded) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.35. Home matches have 60% over 2.5 (6/10), away matches 60% over, and H2H 75% over (3/4). Home GL_5 of 1.55 shows moderate accelerating bookmaker mispricing, further supporting the Over. |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:00 |
Maccabi Herzliya |
- |
Hapoel Kfar Shalem |
Over 2.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected full-time goals total 3.10 (Herzliya home avg 1.30 + Kfar Shalem away conceded avg 1.90 = 3.20/2=1.60; Kfar Shalem away avg 2.10 + Herzliya home conceded 0.90 = 3.00/2=1.50) above the 2.75 line. Hapoel Kfar Shalem's last 10 matches show 80% (8/10) went Over 2.5, and their GL_5 market pricing error of 2.00 indicates persistent underestimation of goals, while both teams needing points in the Championship round adds structural Over support. |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:00 |
Sitra |
- |
Al-Ahli Manama |
Over 2.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals (2.80) exceeds the line of 2.25 by 0.55 goals, based on home avg 1.30 scored and conceded 2.30, away avg 1.00 scored and conceded 1.00. H2H record shows 4/4 matches over 2.5 (100%), and recent form shows 60% of matches for both teams exceeding 2.5 goals. Market pricing errors (Sitra GL5 1.50, Al-Ahli GL5 1.60) indicate moderate bookmaker mispricing in favor of Over. |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:00 |
Zoman FC |
- |
FC Mouna |
Over 2.0 Goals |
72% |
Expected total goals 2.20 (home avg 1.00, away avg conceded 0.90; away avg 1.30, home conceded 1.20) exceeds line of 2.0 by 0.20. H2H supports Over (2 of 3 matches over 2.0). Away team's goal line variance is severe (GL_5 1.95, accelerating), indicating the bookmaker consistently underestimates goals in their matches, adding edge to Over. Structural quality gap (Mouna 3rd away vs Zoman 15th overall) further supports an open game. |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:45 |
Al Ittihad Kalba |
- |
Khor Fakkan |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.85 (home avg 1.40 + away concede 2.30 + away avg 1.70 + home concede 2.30, halved) vs line 2.75. Home last 5 all over (100%), away last 5 60% over; away conceded 2+ in all last 5 away matches. H2H (25% over) contradicts but recent form and Khor Fakkan's moderate GL_5=1.5 mispricing support the over. Confidence 82% (capped at standard ceiling). |
|
| 05-05-2026 16:45 |
RKC |
- |
Willem II |
|
78% |
Willem II has covered the 0 handicap in all of their last 5 away matches (wins at Dordrecht, Roda, Maastricht, Top Oss, Emmen). Their Asian handicap record shows 4 wins in the last 5, and the standings gap (3rd vs 6th) supports away superiority. H2H also favors Willem II with a recent away win 2-1 at RKC (Feb 2026). Goal line Over 3.0 has moderate support (76%) but AH confidence is higher at 78%. |
|
| 05-05-2026 17:00 |
FK Riteriai |
- |
Banga Gargzdai |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
FK Riteriai averages only 0.20 first-half goals at home and Banga Gargzdai averages 0.20 first-half goals conceded away, while Banga scores 0.80 first-half away but recent matches show both teams struggle to score early. In their last 4 home matches, Riteriai's first-half total went under 1.0 goal in 3 of 4 (75%), and Banga's last 4 away matches went under in all 4 (100%). The expected first-half total of 1.25 is only slightly above the line of 1.0, but the strong historical underperformance and low scoring patterns (both teams historically low first-half scorers) strongly favour the under. No H2H data contradicts this pattern. |
|
| 05-05-2026 17:00 |
SV Tillmitsch |
- |
Fsc Eggendorf Hartberg II |
Over 3.25 Goals |
73% |
Expected total goals 3.35 (home avg 1.90 + conceded 1.30, away avg 2.40 + conceded 1.10) exceeds the 3.25 line. Home team has 60% of recent home matches over the line, while away team has 100% of away matches over. Bookmaker mispricing is moderate (away GL_5=1.50, accelerating), adding edge. H2H is neutral (only one 0-0 draw). |
|
| 05-05-2026 17:00 |
AGF Women |
- |
Kolding IF Women |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.20 (AGF home avg 1.60, concede 1.50; Kolding away avg 0.90, concede 2.40) exceeds line 2.75. AGF home Over in 3/4 matches (75%), Kolding away Over in 4/4 (100%). Kolding conceded 2+ goals in all 4 away games (defensive fragility). H2H one draw (neutral). Market pricing error mild and stabilizing (home GL_5 1.35, away 1.10). Likelihood 65% for Over 2.5 supports. |
|
| 05-05-2026 17:00 |
Al Sadd |
- |
Al Duhail |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 4.10 goals (Al Sadd home avg 2.70, conceded 2.20; Al Duhail away avg 1.80, conceded 1.50) well above the 3.0 line. Al Sadd have 80% of home matches over 3.0, Al Duhail 70% away. H2H neutral (2-2). Structural quality gap (1st vs 5th) and Al Duhail conceding 2+ in 3 of last 5 away support Over. Home GL_5 mispricing at 3.00 (severe) signals the line is too low. |
|
| 05-05-2026 17:00 |
Tarxien Rainbows FC |
- |
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
Over 2.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.25 goals based on Tarxien's home average (1.50 scored, 1.70 conceded) and Zabbar's away average (1.90 scored, 1.40 conceded). Tarxien's last 5 home matches saw 80% over 2.5 and they have scored 2+ in each of the last 3 home games, while Zabbar have conceded in every away match. H2H average total is 3.50 from four recent draws (6,2,4,2). Market mispricing: Tarxien GL_5 of 1.70 (accelerating from 1.30) shows the line underestimates goal outcomes. Likelihood for over 2.5 is 60%. |
|
| 05-05-2026 17:30 |
Chippa United |
- |
Sekhukhune United FC |
Over 2.0 Goals |
70% |
Expected total goals of 2.55 (Chippa home avg 1.10 + Sekhukhune away conceded 1.30; away avg 1.00 + home conceded 1.70) is 0.55 above the 2.0 line. Chippa's home matches show 66.7% Over (2/3) and Sekhukhune's away matches 60% Over (3/5). While the H2H history is 75% Under (3 of 4 under 2 goals), Sekhukhune's recent away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away) and Chippa's GL_5 of 1.70 (moderate bookmaker mispricing) support an Over play. |
|
| 05-05-2026 17:30 |
Stellenbosch FC |
- |
Orlando Pirates |
Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half |
81% |
Expected 1st half total goals is 1.15 (Stellenbosch home HT avg 0.60, Orlando away conceded HT avg 0.20 vs Orlando away HT avg 1.10, Stellenbosch home conceded HT avg 0.40), well above the 0.75 line. Orlando's away 1st half record shows 75% over 0.75 (3/4) and Stellenbosch's home 1st half record is 100% over (4/4). The quality gap (Orlando 2nd, Stellenbosch 10th) and Orlando's dominant attacking form further support early goals. |
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| 05-05-2026 17:30 |
Siwelele FC |
- |
Durban City |
Over 8.5 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected corners total 11.40 (Siwelele home avg 5.80, conceded 6.80; Durban City away avg 5.20, conceded 5.00). Siwelele's matches went over 8.5 corners in 90% of last 10, Durban City in 60%. The 2.9-corner gap above the 8.5 line and Siwelele's tendency to concede many corners at home create strong Over value. |
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| 05-05-2026 17:30 |
Magesi FC |
- |
Orbit College |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.25 goals (home avg 1.20 + away conceded 1.30 with away avg 0.60 + home conceded 1.40) exceeds the line of 1.75. Home team has 70% of last 10 home matches Over this line, and away team 67% in away matches. H2H both games Over (4 and 2 total goals). Home GL_5 of 2.50 signals severe bookmaker mispricing accelerating, supporting Over. |
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| 05-05-2026 17:30 |
Wiener Sportclub |
- |
Parndorf |
Under 3.0 Goals |
75% |
Expected total goals is 2.50 (home avg 1.70 + away conceded 0.50 = 2.20/2 = 1.10, plus away avg 1.50 + home conceded 1.30 = 2.80/2 = 1.40, sum 2.50), well below the 3.0 line. Home has 5 of 8 (62.5%) home matches Under 3.0, away has 4 of 4 (100%) away matches Under 3.0. H2H result was 1–0, also Under 3.0. Structurally, away concedes only 0.50 goals per away game (strong defense) and home has scored only 5 goals in their last 5 home matches (recent scoring slump). Away GL_5 of 1.75 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing, consistent with an overpriced line. Combined confidence: 50% base + 10% gap +5% home history +10% away history = 75%, meets Under threshold. |
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| 05-05-2026 17:30 |
Besiktas |
- |
Konyaspor |
Over 9.0 Asian Corners |
80% |
Expected total corners 10.05 (Besiktas home avg 5.8 + Konyaspor away conceded avg 5.5 / 2 + away avg 4.0 + home conceded 4.8 / 2) exceeds line 9.0 by 1.05. H2H corners all 4 matches over 9 (10,20,16,14). Konyaspor away corner history shows 3/5 (60%) over 9, while Besiktas home history is 3/6 (50%). Structural edge: Besiktas 4th in league, dominant home side, Konyaspor away concede 5.5 avg corners. Market mispricing: Besiktas corner variance high (2.50) suggests bookmaker underestimates total corners. |
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| 05-05-2026 18:00 |
Quilmes Reserves |
- |
Defensa y Justicia Reserves |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total 1.45 (Quilmes HT avg 0.70 at home, Defensa HT avg 1.60 away, Quilmes concede 0.10 at home, Defensa concede 0.50 away) exceeds line 1.0. Defensa away 1st half history shows 60% over (3/5 away matches ≥2 HT goals). Severe bookmaker mispricing (Defensa GL_5=2.30) adds edge, with direction supporting over. |
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| 05-05-2026 18:00 |
Atletico Rafaela Reserves |
- |
Huracan Reserves |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total of 1.50 goals (home average 0.80 + away average 1.00 vs conceded 0.50 and 0.70) exceeds the 0.75 line by 0.75 goals. Huracan have scored in the 1st half in 4 of their last 5 away matches (80% Over 0.75), while Atletico Rafaela have seen 3 of 5 home 1st halves go Over 0.75. The quality gap (Huracan 8th, Atletico 17th) and accelerating bookmaker mispricing (Huracan GL_5 of 1.75, increasing from GL_10 of 1.65) further support the Over. |
|
| 05-05-2026 18:00 |
CA Independiente Reserves |
- |
Ferro Carril Oeste Reserves |
Over 8 Asian Corners |
75% |
Expected total corners 9.25 (home avg 5.0 + away conceded 5.3) exceeds line 8.0 by +1.25. Home team produced Over 8 in 4/5 recent home matches (80%). H2H had 11 corners. Home AC_5=3.50 signals severe mispricing. Combined with home attacking pressure vs away defensive fragility, Over corners is strong. |
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| 05-05-2026 18:00 |
Al Khaleej Saihat |
- |
Al Hilal Riyadh |
Over 10 Asian Corners |
65% |
Expected total corners (10.10) exceeds the line of 10, driven by Al Hilal's strong away corner average of 6.6 against Al Khaleej's home conceded average of 4.5. H2H corners history supports over (75% of last 4 over 10). Quality gap (Al Hilal 2nd vs Al Khaleej 10th) adds structural over pressure. Bookmaker mispricing for corners is high (away variance_ac_5 = 4.00), though not directly adjusted in confidence. |
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| 05-05-2026 18:30 |
Boston River Reserves |
- |
Penarol Reserves |
Over 2.25 Goals |
73% |
Expected total of 2.60 goals (Boston home avg 1.30 scored, 1.70 conceded; Penarol away avg 1.80 scored, 0.40 conceded) exceeds the 2.25 line by 0.35. Boston has 70% of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals, while Penarol has 50% – the home side’s attacking vulnerability supports over despite lack of strong away history. The quality gap (Penarol 1st vs Boston 17th) adds structural edge for more goals, and likelihood data (55% Over 2.5) aligns with the pick. Market pricing error is low (GL_5 0.90/0.65), so no variance adjustment needed. |
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| 05-05-2026 18:30 |
Defensor Sporting Reserves |
- |
Cerro Largo Reserves |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 3.20 (home avg 2.00 at home, away concede 2.20; away avg 1.20 away, home concede 1.00) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.45. Defensor's last 5 matches show 80% Over, Cerro Largo's 100% Over, and the only H2H ended 4-0. Defensor's home form (scored 2+ in last 3 home) provides a structural over signal, while bookmaker mispricing is mild (home GL_5 1.45, away 0.95). |
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| 05-05-2026 18:45 |
Alloa |
- |
Airdrieonians |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time total of 3.05 goals is derived from Alloa's home averages (1.30 scored, 1.80 conceded) and Airdrieonians' away averages (1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded), producing a 0.55 goal gap above the 2.5 line. Both teams have 60% of their last 5 matches in their respective roles going Over 2.5, and H2H history shows 3 of 4 meetings (75%) clearing the line. Home team variance GL_5 of 1.55 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing, adding further edge to the Over. |
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| 05-05-2026 18:45 |
Queen of South |
- |
Stenhousemuir |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.95 (home avg 0.50 + away conceded 0.20 = 0.70/2 = 0.35; away avg 0.60 + home conceded 0.60 = 1.20/2 = 0.60). Queen of South have 7/10 (70%) and Stenhousemuir have 9/10 (90%) of their recent matches staying under 1.0 HT goals. H2H FT totals have all been under 2.5 goals, reinforcing a low-scoring pattern. Both teams are historically low first-half scorers, and bookmaker mispricing is negligible (GL_5 home 1.00, away 0.70), supporting the Under. |
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| 05-05-2026 18:45 |
Forfar |
- |
Hamilton |
1st Half Over 1.25 Goals |
79% |
Expected 1st-half total of 1.45 goals (Forfar home avg 1.20 scored, 0.40 conceded; Hamilton away avg 0.70 scored, 0.60 conceded) exceeds the 1.25 line by 0.20. Forfar have gone over in 3/4 home 1st halves (75%) and Hamilton in 3/5 away 1st halves (60%), both clearing the 60% threshold. Both teams show consistent early scoring — Forfar scored in all 4 home 1st halves and Hamilton in 3 of 5 away — reinforcing the Over signal. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (Forfar GL_5 1.05, Hamilton 0.90) and does not hinder the pick. |
|
| 05-05-2026 18:45 |
Clyde |
- |
Spartans |
Over 2.5 Goals |
76% |
Clyde average 1.5 goals scored at home and Spartans concede 1.1 away, yielding expected total 2.80 above the 2.5 line. Clyde have gone Over 2.5 in 3 of their last 4 home matches (75%), while Spartans have gone Over in 3 of 5 away (60%). H2H also supports with 3 of 4 meetings going Over. Clyde's recent home scoring form (2+ goals in each of last 4 home games) adds structural Over signal. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (Clyde GL_5 1.15, Spartans 0.65). |
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| 05-05-2026 22:00 |
Juventud De Las Piedras |
- |
Atletico Mineiro |
Juventud De Las Piedras +0.25 (Asian Handicap) |
70% |
Juventud's perfect Asian handicap record (5/5 wins) and higher group standing (2nd, 4 pts) over Atletico Mineiro (4th, 3 pts) support covering the +0.25 line. Common opponent Academia Puerto Cabello was beaten 4-0 at home by Juventud, while Atletico lost 2-1 away, confirming the home side's edge. Atletico's poor away form (1 win in last 5 away) reinforces the value on Juventud. |
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| 05-05-2026 22:00 |
Independiente Petrolero |
- |
Caracas |
Under 1.0 Goals 1st Half |
78% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.15 (Indep. Petrolero home HT avg 0.40 scored, 1.00 conceded; Caracas away HT avg 0.30 scored, 0.60 conceded), but both teams show strong Under trends: Petrolero 3/4 home HT under 1.0 (75%), Caracas 4/4 away HT under 1.0 (100%), and H2H ended 0-0 HT. Structural signals confirm low-scoring pattern: both teams are low HT scorers and Caracas failed to score HT in 3 of last 4 away matches. Market mispricing is mild (GL_5 under 1.0 for both), supporting the Under. |
|
| 05-05-2026 22:00 |
Rosario Central |
- |
Libertad Asuncion |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.65 (home avg 1.40 at home + away concede 1.60 away averaged with away avg 1.30 away + home concede 1.00 at home) exceeds the 2.5 line. Rosario Central have 3/5 and Libertad 4/5 recent matches Over 2.5. Libertad's away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 4 away) and accelerating bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=1.90) strengthen the Over. |
|
| 05-05-2026 22:00 |
Sporting Cristal |
- |
Palmeiras |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
76% |
Expected 1st half goals 1.30 vs line 1.0. Sporting Cristal home: 2 of 7 HTs over 1.0 (28.6% Over, 71.4% Under). Palmeiras away: 0 of 5 HTs over 1.0 (100% Under). Palmeiras concede only 0.3 avg HT goals away. H2H low HT totals reinforce Under trend. Strong home and away HT Under history provide dual structural reasons. Likelihood (70% Under 1.5) aligns. Confidence 76%. |
|
| 05-05-2026 23:30 |
Toronto FC |
- |
Atletico Ottawa |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.0 goals (Toronto 1.6 home + Ottawa 1.9 away conceded averaged) exceeds the 2.75 line. Toronto home matches 60% over, Ottawa away matches 60% over. Ottawa's away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away) and quality gap (MLS vs CPL) strengthen the Over. Toronto's GL_5 variance of 1.80 indicates consistent bookmaker mispricing on goals, accelerating from 1.38 GL_10. |
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