| 16-05-2026 19:00 |
Paris FC Women |
- |
PSG Women |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals calculated as (2.50+0.90)/2 + (1.90+1.10)/2 = 3.20, exceeding the 2.5 line by 0.7 goals. Paris FC Women have scored 2+ in each of their last 5 home matches and all 5 recent games went over 2.5. PSG Women have 60% over 2.5 in their last 5, and head-to-head shows 2 of 3 meetings also over. Home team's GL_5 of 1.45 signals mild bookmaker mispricing supporting over. Confidence of 82% capped by standard evidence tier. |
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| 16-05-2026 22:00 |
Richmond Kickers |
- |
Charleston Battery |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
78% |
Richmond concede 1.10 at home and Charleston score 1.60 away, producing an expected total of 2.70 goals, 0.45 above the 2.25 line. Charleston have gone over 2.5 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70%) and conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 away, exposing defensive fragility. The quality gap from the higher-division Charleston further supports an open match with goals. |
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| 16-05-2026 23:30 |
Fort Wayne FC |
- |
Indy Eleven |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 2.80 goals (home avg 1.10 + away conceded away 1.30)/2 + (away avg 1.70 + home conceded 1.50)/2 exceeds the 2.5 line. Indy Eleven show 80% (8/10) of recent matches Over 2.5, while Fort Wayne FC have 57% (4/7). No H2H data available. Market pricing error is low (GL_5 0.95 for both teams), and no structural defensive fragility is apparent. The combination of expected total above the line and strong away history supports Over 2.5. |
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| 17-05-2026 00:30 |
Corpus Christi FC |
- |
Tulsa |
Over 8.5 Asian Corners |
72% |
Expected total corners computed as (Corpus Christi avg corners at home 3.90 + Tulsa avg corners conceded away 3.40)/2 + (Tulsa avg corners away 5.30 + Corpus Christi avg corners conceded at home 5.60)/2 = 9.10, exceeding the 8.5 line by 0.6. Away team Tulsa shows severe bookmaker mispricing on corners (variance_ac_5 = 3.50, over 2.5 threshold), indicating consistent underpricing. The quality gap (Corpus Christi bottom of USL League One vs Tulsa in higher division) and Corpus Christi conceding 5.6 corners at home further support an Over outcome. |
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| 17-05-2026 00:30 |
SV Dakota |
- |
SV Sporting Aruba |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.30 goals (home avg 3.50 scored at home + away avg conceded 1.80 away, plus away avg 2.00 scored away + home avg conceded 1.30 at home, averaged) exceeds the 3.5 line by 0.80 goals. Both teams show strong Over history: Dakota 62% (5/8) and Sporting Aruba 60% (6/10) of recent matches went Over 3.5. Home team's market mispricing is severe (GL_5 = 2.75, accelerating from GL_10 = 2.13), indicating the bookmaker consistently underestimates Dakota's total goals. Structural edge: Dakota averages 3.5 goals at home and has scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 overall, while Sporting's matches frequently produce high totals (4+ goals in 6 of last 10). Over 3.5 offers strong value at 2.00. |
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| 17-05-2026 01:00 |
Colorado Switchbacks FC |
- |
New Mexico United |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected FT total 3.30 goals (home avg 1.90 + away conceded avg 1.80 averaged with away avg 1.50 + home conceded avg 1.40) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.55. Colorado's home matches are 60% Over, New Mexico's away matches are 80% Over, and H2H is 75% Over (4 matches, 3 Over). Colorado's recent home form is surging (scored 2+ in last 3 home). Bookmaker mispricing on Colorado is high and accelerating (GL_5 2.10 > GL_10 1.60), adding edge to Over. |
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| 17-05-2026 01:00 |
Diriangen |
- |
Real Esteli |
Diriangen -0.25 Asian Handicap |
75% |
Diriangen's strong home form (6-2-1 Clausura, 20 GF 7 GA) and recent AH record (4-1-0 last 5) support covering -0.25 against a Real Esteli side that has lost both recent away H2H matches at this venue (1-0 defeat) and shows weaker away AH form (2-1-2 last 5). Standings gap is narrow (39 vs 37 pts) but home advantage and common opponent results favour Diriangen. Bookmaker mispricing is not a major factor here (home GL_5 1.95 but direction aligns with home win, adding marginal confidence). |
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| 17-05-2026 01:00 |
CD Luis Angel Firpo |
- |
CD Aguila |
Under 2.25 Goals |
75% |
Expected total of 2.30 goals (Firpo home 1.50 + 0.90 conceded, Aguila away 1.30 + 0.90 conceded) sits just above the 2.25 line, but both teams have gone Under in all of their last 4 roles (Firpo at home 0/4 Over, Aguila away 0/4 Over). Head-to-head also shows 3/4 Unders. Market mispricing is low (GL_5 home 0.50, away 0.80), confirming no edge for Over. These factors strongly support an Under bet at 2.00 odds. |
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| 17-05-2026 13:30 |
Dynamo Dresden |
- |
Holstein Kiel |
Under 10.5 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners of 9.65 is 0.85 below the 10.5 line, while both Dresden (80% home matches under) and Holstein Kiel (80% away matches under) show 70%+ under history. Bookmaker mispricing is severe for Kiel (GL_5 2.80) and moderate for Dresden (GL_5 1.80), both aligning with the under direction. |
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| 17-05-2026 13:30 |
Hradec Kralove Women |
- |
Pardubice Women |
Over 3.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected total goals 4.10 (home avg 3.00 at home + away avg 2.10 conceded away) vs line 3.5, a gap of 0.6 goals. Both teams show accelerating market mispricing (GL_5 1.8 for each), indicating the bookmaker consistently underestimates goal totals in their matches. Likelihood data gives 60% for Over 3.5, and the shot-based match potential (4.24) also supports the Over. Despite recent match history being mixed, the structural edge from bookmaker error and expected total above the line justify this pick. |
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| 17-05-2026 14:00 |
HPS Women |
- |
HJK Women |
Under 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.20, below the line of 1.25. HPS Women have gone Under the 1st half line in 3 of 4 home matches (75%), while HJK Women have gone Under in all 3 away matches (100%). Both teams consistently fail to score in the first half (HPS failed to score in 3 of 4 home 1Hs, HJK failed in all 3 away 1Hs), reinforcing the Under pattern. |
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| 17-05-2026 14:00 |
BK Olympic |
- |
Atvidabergs FF |
Over 9.5 Asian Corners |
78% |
Expected total corners (10.25) exceeds likely line of 9.5, driven by BK Olympic averaging 4.30 corners at home and Atvidabergs conceding 6.10 away. BK Olympic's last 3 home matches all went over 9.5 (15, 11, 10 corners), and Atvidabergs covered 2 of 3 away (15, 10). No H2H data, but structural corner patterns and mild market mispricing (home GL_5 1.10) support the Over. |
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| 17-05-2026 14:00 |
FK Auda |
- |
RFS |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.85 goals (Auda home HT avg 1.10 scored + 0.80 conceded, RFS away HT avg 1.20 scored + 0.60 conceded) vs line 1.0, a gap of +0.85. Auda's last 10 matches have 60% over 1.0 HT goals, and RFS's GL_5 of 2.50 indicates severe bookmaker mispricing on goal lines, further supporting an Over. Despite mixed away HT history, the strong expected total and mispricing edge make Over 1.0 HT the best value. |
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| 17-05-2026 14:00 |
Parnu JK Vaprus II |
- |
JK Trans Narva II |
Over 4.25 Goals |
74% |
Expected total 4.45 (home 2.60 scored, 2.10 conceded at home; away 2.80 scored, 1.40 conceded away) exceeds the 4.25 line. Bookmaker mispricing is severe: both teams have GL_5 values of 2.65 (home) and 2.40 (away), accelerating from GL_10 and pointing to systematic underestimation of goals. The single H2H match also produced 5 goals, reinforcing the Over despite mixed per-team history. |
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| 17-05-2026 17:00 |
Leixoes |
- |
Lusitania Lourosa |
Leixoes -0.25 Asian Handicap |
72% |
Leixoes (7th, 47 pts) host Lusitania (10th, 43 pts). Leixoes have covered -0.25 in 4 of last 5 matches (80%) and hold a 70% AH win rate over 10 games. Against 8 common opponents, Leixoes outperformed Lusitania (5-1-2 vs 2-3-3). The standings gap and strong AH record support this handicap. |
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