| 21-05-2026 14:00 |
VIFK Women |
- |
Aland United Women |
Under 1.75 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
VIFK have gone under 1.5 total goals in all 4 home first halves this season (0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-1), while Aland United have gone under in 4 of their last 5 away first halves. VIFK have not scored a first-half goal at home in any of those 4 matches, and Aland have failed to score in the opening half in 3 of their last 5 away games, creating a strong structural under pattern despite a 2.00 expected total from averages. |
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| 21-05-2026 14:00 |
FK Andijan |
- |
Nasaf Qarshi |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st half total calculated as (0.70+0.30)/2 + (0.40+0.20)/2 = 0.80, below the 1.0 line. Both FK Andijan (80%) and Nasaf Qarshi (80%) have seen under 1.0 goals in 8 of their last 10 1st halves. H2H matches ended 1-0 and 1-1, consistent with low scoring. Structural signals: low 1st half shot conversion rates (home 17.5%, away 8.0%) support an unders pattern. No significant bookmaker mispricing detected on goal line variance (GL_5 mild). |
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| 21-05-2026 15:00 |
BFC Daugavpils |
- |
Ogre United |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 3.05 (home avg 1.20 scored at home + away conceded 2.60 = 3.80/2=1.90; away avg 1.10 scored away + home conceded 1.20 = 2.30/2=1.15; sum 3.05) exceeds the 2.75 line. Ogre United have conceded 2+ goals in all 5 recent away matches and 4/5 went Over 2.75. H2H produced 3 goals. Market pricing error is severe for Ogre (GL_5 2.65, accelerating), adding edge to the Over side. |
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| 21-05-2026 15:00 |
Negelle Arsi |
- |
Shire Endaselassie FC |
Over 1.5 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 2.00 (home 1.10 + away 1.10 avg) exceeds the 1.75 goal line by 0.25, and home team Negelle Arsi has gone Over 1.5 in 9 of last 10 matches (90%), while Shire Endaselassie's 50% rate does not contradict the over direction. The quality gap (3rd vs 17th) supports sustained home pressure, and home team's GL_5 error of 1.55 (moderate, accelerating) adds marginal edge for the over bet. |
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| 21-05-2026 16:15 |
Al Arabi SC |
- |
Al Tadamon SC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 2.95 (home 1.70+away conceded 2.20 /2 + away 1.10+home conceded 0.90 /2) exceeds line 2.75; away team has 70% of last 10 matches over 2.75 (7 of 10); strong bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5=2.00, away GL_5=1.75) and quality gap (Al Arabi 3rd vs Al Tadamon 9th) further support Over. |
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| 21-05-2026 16:15 |
Al Arabi SC |
- |
Al Tadamon SC |
Over 2.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals from averages is 2.85 (home avg 1.50 + away conceded away 2.20 and away avg 1.10 + home conceded at home 0.90), exceeding the line of 2.75. Al Tadamon conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches, a structural weakness. Their away matches have gone over 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 (80%). Market mispricing is high and accelerating: home GL_5 is 1.85 (strong) and away GL_5 is 1.75 (moderate), both favoring overs. The only H2H saw 3 goals. Shot-based expected total of 5.12 further supports an over. Confidence capped at 82% (standard tier). |
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| 21-05-2026 17:00 |
FC Rustavi |
- |
Samgurali |
Over 2.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected total goals 2.80 (Rustavi home avg 1.40, Samgurali away conceded avg 2.00; Samgurali away avg 1.20, Rustavi home conceded avg 1.00) exceeds the line of 2.5. Samgurali's away record shows 70% of last 10 matches went Over 2.5, and Rustavi's home form is strong (2nd in home standings, 4 wins in 6). Structural quality gap (Rustavi 4th overall, Samgurali 8th) and Samgurali's poor away defense (15 goals conceded in 6 away games) support an Over. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (home GL_5 1.05, away 1.30). |
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| 21-05-2026 17:00 |
IK Tord |
- |
Skara |
Over 1.0,1.5 1st Half Goals |
65% |
Expected 1st half total calculated as (0.40+0.50)/2 + (1.20+1.00)/2 = 1.55, above the line of 1.25. Away team Skara has gone Over 1.25 in 2 of last 3 away 1st halves (66.7%), meeting the 60% threshold, while home team IK Tord is at exactly 50% (2 of 4) so not contradicting. Structural support from Skara's strong away first-half scoring (avg 1.20) and IK Tord's weak home first-half defense (conceded avg 1.00). Single H2H match neutral. Market pricing error mild (away GL_5 1.45) adds marginal edge. |
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| 21-05-2026 17:00 |
Ilzer SV |
- |
USV Gnas |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.95 (Ilzer SV 2.50 home scored + 2.10 conceded, USV Gnas 1.70 away scored + 1.60 conceded) well above line of 3.25 at 0.70 gap. Ilzer SV exceeded Over in 3 of 4 home matches. H2H 4-0 win. Home team's severe mispricing (GL_5=2.55, accelerating) strongly favours Over. Recent home form: 2+ goals in last 3 home games. |
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| 21-05-2026 18:00 |
Al-Nassr Riyadh |
- |
Damac FC |
Over 9.5 Corners |
75% |
Expected corners total is 10.35 (home avg 6.9 + home conceded avg 2.7 + away avg 4.2 + away conceded avg 6.9, half-sum method), above the 9.5 line. Damac's away matches have exceeded 9.5 in 4 of last 5 (80%), and Al-Nassr's home corners average 6.9 while Damac concedes 6.9 away – a structural quality gap favoring corners. Damac's high corner variance (GL_5 = 2.9) indicates bookmaker mispricing. No other market achieved minimum confidence (FT goal line expected 2.95 vs 3.25, under hit 72% threshold; HT goal line expected 1.35 vs 1.5; Asian handicap -2.5 too large given recent form). |
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| 21-05-2026 18:00 |
Al Ittihad Jeddah |
- |
Al Qadisiya Al Khubar |
Over 9.5 Corners |
82% |
Expected corners total of 11.20 (home avg 6.0 + away avg 8.4) exceeds the 9.5 line by 1.7. Away team has 80% of last 10 matches over 9.5 corners (8.4 avg away) and home team 60% over. Severe bookmaker mispricing on away corners (AC_5=3.30) further supports the Over. H2H corners (8 and 3) are neutral due to small sample, but structural dominance by Al Qadisiya in set pieces and sustained attacking pressure drives the edge. |
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