| 02-09 18:00 |
Hibernians
|
|
-
|
|
1.50 -1.00 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged:
(0.80 + 0.60 + 1.20 + 0.40) / 2 = 1.50
Error: 1.50 - Goal line 2.50 = -1.00 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
131 212 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
0.80 | 0.60 1.20 | 0.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
9.50 | 14.00 7.67 | 19.50 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
7.60 | 8.40 9.20 | 7.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.60 | 3.40 3.20 | 3.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
46.60 | 49.60 55.40 | 40.40 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
|
| 02-09 19:00 |
Floriana
|
|
+1.01 +0.01 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios:
League avg. total shots: 7.82
Heim: 7.82 / ((3.00 + 3.60) / 2) = 2.37
Heim: 7.82 / ((4.67 + 6.80) / 2) = 1.36
Diff: 2.37 - 1.36 = +1.01
Error: +1.01 + AH line -1.00 = +0.01 |
|
3.20 +0.70 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged:
(2.20 + 1.20 + 1.00 + 2.00) / 2 = 3.20
Error: 3.20 - Goal line 2.50 = +0.70 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
401 104 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.20 | 1.20 1.00 | 2.00 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
3.00 | 4.67 6.80 | 3.60 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
6.60 | 5.60 6.80 | 7.20 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.80 | 1.60 3.60 | 4.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
44.40 | 49.20 44.80 | 48.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
|
