| 28-07-2026 15:30 |
Vihren Sandanski |
- |
CSKA Sofia II |
Over 2.5 Goals |
67% |
Expected total 2.95 goals (home: 1.70 scored, 1.00 conceded; away: 1.80 scored, 1.40 conceded) exceeds line 2.5 by 0.45. CSKA Sofia II’s last 10 matches have 60% Overs, while Vihren has 50%, meeting the Over threshold with away team agreement. Bookmaker mispricing for CSKA Sofia II (GL_5 = 2.05, strong) adds edge, and match potential from shot data (3.03 expected goals) supports the Over signal. |
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| 28-07-2026 18:00 |
Grimsby |
- |
Lincoln City |
Over 2.75 Goals |
74% |
Expected total 3.10 (home 2.20 scored + away 0.90 conceded, away 1.90 scored + home 1.20 conceded) exceeds the 2.75 line. Grimsby's last 10 matches saw Over 2.75 in 80% (8 of 10), Lincoln's 50%. Lincoln is in exceptional form with a 10-match winning streak and a GL_5 market pricing error of 1.70, indicating moderate bookmaker mispricing on their goals. The two-division quality gap (League Two vs Championship) further supports a high-scoring affair. |
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| 28-07-2026 18:00 |
Oldham |
- |
Stockport |
Over 2.75 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 3.15 goals (Oldham home: 1.70 scored, 1.60 conceded; Stockport away: 1.80 scored, 1.20 conceded) exceeds 2.75 line by 0.40. Oldham's recent home matches went Over 2.75 in 4 of 5 (80%), Stockport away in 3 of 5 (60%). Shot-based match potential also supports Over. No H2H data. Mild bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.45/1.20) adds marginal edge. |
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| 28-07-2026 18:00 |
Club Oriental Reserves |
- |
Torque Reserves |
Under 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 2.10 (Home 0.80 scored/1.10 conceded, Away 1.10 scored/1.20 conceded) is 0.90 below the 3.0 line. Both teams show 90% Under 3.0 in last 10 matches (Oriental 9/10, Torque 9/10). H2H neutral with no structural Over signals, supporting a strong Under bet. |
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| 28-07-2026 18:30 |
Aston Villa |
- |
Real Sociedad |
Over 2.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected goals total 3.35 (Aston Villa home scored 2.10, conceded 1.40; Real Sociedad away scored 1.50, conceded 1.70) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.60. Villa's last 4 home games all went over 2.75 goals, and Real Sociedad's away overs stand at 50%. No H2H data. Strong home attacking form with 4+ goals in 3 of last 4 home matches provides further structural support. |
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| 28-07-2026 18:30 |
Dag & Red |
- |
Boreham Wood |
Over 3.0 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 3.25 goals (Dag & Red home: 1.90 scored, 1.80 conceded; Boreham Wood away: 1.80 scored, 1.00 conceded). Dag & Red at home are 75% Over 3.0 (3 of 4), and Boreham Wood's only away decision was Over. H2H produced 4 goals, match potential 3.78 from shot data, and no structural Under signals. |
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| 28-07-2026 18:30 |
Barnet |
- |
Milton Keynes Dons |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.35 goals (Home scored 2.60 home, conceded 1.60; Away scored 1.50 away, conceded 1.00) vs line 2.5. Barnet 9/10 recent matches Over 2.5 (90%), MK Dons 5/10 (50%). H2H both matches Over 2.5 (1-3, 2-2). Home GL_5 1.60 moderate bookmaker mispricing supports Over. Capped at 82% ceiling due to away history under 70%. |
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| 28-07-2026 18:45 |
Chertsey Town |
- |
Chesham |
Over 8 Corners |
71% |
Expected corners 9.10 (home gained 4.70/conceded 4.10, away gained 5.30/conceded 4.10) exceeds line 8.0 by 1.10. Home matches over 8 corners in 3 of 5 (60%), away matches over in 3 of 5 (60%). No H2H. Away team's Asian corner variance of 4.40 signals significant bookmaker mispricing consistent with Over. |
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| 28-07-2026 18:45 |
Maidstone Utd |
- |
Brentwood Town |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Maidstone Utd average 2.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded at home, while Brentwood Town average 2.60 scored and 1.50 conceded away; expected total (4.15) far exceeds the 3.0 line. Recent form strongly supports Over 3.0 — 7 of Maidstone's last 9 non-push matches and all 5 of Brentwood's recent non-push games went over. Structural over signals include Brentwood conceding 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches and Maidstone's consistent scoring form. Bookmaker mispricing is mild, but the overwhelming goal expectation and history cap confidence at 82%. |
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| 28-07-2026 18:45 |
Enfield Town |
- |
AFC Hornchurch |
Over 3.25 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 3.30 (Enfield home 1.60 scored/1.70 conceded, Hornchurch away 2.20/1.10) narrowly above the 3.25 line. Both teams show 50% over 3.25 in their relevant match histories, but the quality gap (Hornchurch two divisions above) and Hornchurch's away scoring surge (2+ goals in 3 of last 5) tilt toward an open, high-scoring friendly. Bookmaker mispricing is severe: Enfield home GL_5 is 2.25 (strong, accelerating) and Hornchurch away GL_5 is 1.75 (moderate), both aligning with the Over direction and adding +13% confidence edge. |
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| 28-07-2026 19:15 |
KF Aegir |
- |
Njardvik |
Away -1.25 Asian Handicap |
72% |
KF Aegir concede 3.4 goals per home game and sit bottom, while 5th-placed Njardvik score 2.0 away and have covered the Asian handicap in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%). The common opponent IF Vestri underlines the gap: KF Aegir lost 3-2 away, Njardvik won 3-0 away, supporting the -1.25 line. |
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