| 03-05-2026 19:30 |
Rio Ave |
- |
Gil Vicente |
Over 2.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 2.60 (Rio Ave home avg 1.10 + Gil Vicente away conceded 1.50 averaged, plus Gil Vicente away scored 1.50 + Rio Ave home conceded 1.10 averaged) exceeds the 2.5 line by 0.10 goals. Rio Ave hit Over in 80% of their last 5 home matches and Gil Vicente in 75% of their last 4 away matches. Both teams show defensive fragility: Rio Ave conceded 2+ in 3 of 5 home games, Gil Vicente in 3 of 4 away games. Likelihood data shows 65% probability for Over 2.5. Bookmaker mispricing is low (GL_5 home 0.60, away 1.00) but structural signals provide sufficient edge for an Over bet. |
|
| 03-05-2026 19:30 |
Rio Ave |
- |
Gil Vicente |
Over 2.5 Goals |
76% |
Expected total goals is 2.60 (home Rio Ave averaging 1.10 scored and conceding 1.10 at home; away Gil Vicente averaging 1.50 scored and conceding 1.50 away) against the 2.5 line. Rio Ave's last 5 home matches went Over 2.5 in 4 (80%) and Gil Vicente's last 4 away matches went Over in 3 (75%). Gil Vicente's away defensive fragility is a strong structural signal: they conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 away matches. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (home GL_5 0.60, away GL_5 1.00), but the combined history and defensive trends favor the Over. |
|
| 03-05-2026 20:00 |
Racing de Cordoba |
- |
Deportivo Madryn |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
69% |
Expected full-time total of 2.15 goals (home avg 0.90 + away conceded 1.00 /2 plus away avg 1.20 + home conceded 1.20 /2) exceeds the line of 1.75. Racing de Cordoba have gone over in 75% of recent home matches, and head-to-head history supports with 3 of 4 meetings exceeding 2 goals. However, Deportivo Madryn's away matches have only gone over in 40% (2/5), creating a counter-signal that tempers confidence. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.10 for both), not enough to override the mixed match-history signal. |
|
| 03-05-2026 21:15 |
The Strongest |
- |
Academia de Balompie Boliviano |
Over 9.0 Corners |
78% |
The Strongest average 4.80 corners at home and Academia concede 4.70 away, giving an expected total of 9.50 against a 9.0 line. The Strongest have gone Over 9 corners in 3/4 home matches (75%), while Academia have done so in 3/5 away (60%). A clear quality gap (2nd vs 10th) plus home dominance create sustained attacking pressure, and bookmaker mispricing is high (home variance_ac_5=1.80, away=2.50) suggesting the market consistently underrates corner totals in this matchup. |
|
| 03-05-2026 21:30 |
Cobreloa |
- |
CD Antofagasta |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.80 goals (home avg 1.90 scored + away avg 1.00 conceded, away avg 1.70 scored + home avg 1.00 conceded) vs line 2.25, gap +0.55. Home Over history 3/5 (60%), H2H 3/4 Over (75%), away defensive fragility (3/5 away conceded 2+), and bookmaker mispricing moderate for away (GL_5 1.70, accelerating) support Over. 1st half Over weaker due to away 20% HT Over rate, so FT Over is the best value. |
|
| 03-05-2026 21:30 |
River Plate |
- |
Atlético Tucumán |
Over 9.0 Asian Corners |
65% |
River Plate averages 5.6 corners at home and Atlético Tucumán concedes 3.5 away, giving an expected total of 8.75, just below 9.0. Yet the H2H record is 4/4 over 9 corners (totals 14,12,15,10), and River's dominant home form against a winless away side (Tucumán 0 away points) ensures sustained pressure. Despite moderate per-game averages, the tactical mismatch and H2H consistency make the Over the best bet. |
|
| 03-05-2026 22:00 |
Municipal Liberia |
- |
Deportivo Saprissa |
Over 2.5 Goals |
78% |
Expected total goals is 3.15 ((1.70+1.00)/2 + (2.60+1.00)/2), well above the 2.5 line. Away team Deportivo Saprissa has gone Over 2.5 in 8 of their last 10 matches (80%), while home team Municipal Liberia is at 50% (not active contradiction). H2H is neutral (2 Over, 2 Under in last 4). Market mispricing for the home team (GL_5 1.60, accelerating) adds moderate edge. Combined confidence 78% supports an Over 2.5 bet. |
|
| 03-05-2026 22:30 |
CSD Municipal |
- |
Guastatoya |
Under 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.10 (home avg 1.30 conceded 0.70, away avg 1.40 conceded 0.80) vs line 2.5. Home at home 75% Under 2.5 (3/4), away away 100% Under (5/5). Both teams failed to score in 2 of last 5. H2H split (2 Under, 2 Over) neutral. Low market mispricing. Confidence capped at 82% under standard ceiling. |
|
| 03-05-2026 23:00 |
Monterey Bay FC |
- |
Tulsa |
Tulsa AH 0 |
70% |
Tulsa (7th, 9pts) faces a relegation-threatened Monterey Bay (12th, 2pts) and has covered the 0 handicap in 75% of recent matches, including 2 wins and 3 draws in last 8. H2H record also favours Tulsa (2 wins, 2 draws in last 4 meetings). Given the clear standings gap and consistent form, backing Tulsa on a level ball offers strong value at 1.80. |
|
| 03-05-2026 23:00 |
Albion FC |
- |
Nacional De Football |
Over 2.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals (3.35) from Albion's home scoring average (1.80) and Nacional's away scoring average (1.90) via (A+B)/2 + (C+D)/2, well above the 2.25 line. Nacional's away record shows 80% Over 2.5 (8/10), conceding 2+ goals in 4 of 6 away matches, while Albion scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home games. Bookmaker mispricing is strong (Nacional GL_5 = 2.40, accelerating), adding significant edge to the Over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 00:00 |
Deportes Limache |
- |
O'Higgins |
Over 2.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected total 3.10 goals (home avg 2.00 at home, away concede avg 1.30 away averaged with away avg 1.80 away, home concede avg 1.10 at home) exceeds the 2.5 line by 0.6. Home match history shows 60% Over (6/10), away 50% Over, and H2H supports with 75% Over (3/4). Structural factor: O'Higgins conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.30 for Limache). |
|
| 04-05-2026 00:00 |
Cetes FC |
- |
FC Panama Norte |
Over 4.0 1st Half Corners |
65% |
Expected first-half corners = 4.80 (home avg 3.00 + away conceded avg 2.90) + (away avg 1.30 + home conceded avg 2.40) / 2 = 4.80, well above line 4.0. Home team averages 60.6 attacks and 53.8 dangerous attacks per game, creating sustained pressure that forces corners. Despite mixed history (2/4 home HT corners over, 1/2 away), the structural advantage and +0.80 gap yield 65% confidence. H2H one match neutral (total 4, push). |
|
| 04-05-2026 00:00 |
SV Atlantico Deportivo |
- |
SV Caravel |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.35 goals (home avg 1.67, away conceded away 2.80, away scored away 2.40, home conceded 1.83) well above line 3.5. Home team 75% Over at home (3 of 4 home matches), away team 100% Over away (3 of 3 with data) for FT. Bookmaker mispricing confirmed: home GL_5=2.40 (strong), away GL_5=1.50 (moderate), both aligned with Over. Structural signal: Caravel conceded 2+ in 3 of last 4 away matches, indicating defensive fragility. Only H2H is neutral (1 match). |
|
| 04-05-2026 00:15 |
Genesis de Comayagua |
- |
Motagua |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total (0.85) is well below the 1.25 line, with Genesis averaging 0.4 scored and 0.6 conceded at home in 1st half, and Motagua averaging 0.4 scored and 0.3 conceded away. Genesis' last 3 home 1st halves all had under 1.25 goals, while Motagua's away 1st halves stayed under in 4 of 5. Structural signals include both teams' low 1st-half scoring rates and Motagua failing to score in the 1st half in 4 of their last 5 away matches. Motagua's moderate GL_5 of 1.60 adds bookmaker mispricing edge for the Under direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 01:00 |
Suchitepequez |
- |
Chichicasteco FC |
Over 9.5 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected corners total of 10.45 (Suchitepequez 7.6 avg corners at home + Chichicasteco conceding 7.3 away) exceeds the 9.5 line. Away corners history shows 60% over the line, and structural dominance by the home side (strong home record vs weak away defence) adds edge. Chichicasteco's extreme corner variance (3.60) indicates persistent bookmaker mispricing underpricing total corners. |
|
| 04-05-2026 01:00 |
Xelaju |
- |
Marquense |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 2.70 (Xelaju home avg 1.80 + Marquense away conceded avg 1.20 avg away conceded away, Marquense away scored avg 1.30 + Xelaju home conceded avg 1.10) exceeds line 2.5. Away match history shows 60% Over (3/5), home 50% Over (3/6) meets at least one above 60% and other 50%+. H2H neutral at 50% Over (2/4). Structural signals: Xelaju top of table vs Marquense 8th (quality gap), Marquense conceded 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away (defensive fragility). Bookmaker mispricing mild (GL_5 home 1.40, away 1.15). Confidence 68% from base 50% +5% away history +3% likelihood +10% structural. |
|
| 04-05-2026 01:05 |
Tepatitlan FC |
- |
Mineros de Zacatecas |
Asian Handicap -0.5 (Home) |
72% |
Tepatitlan (1st, 26 pts) hosts Mineros (6th, 21 pts) at home where they have won all last 5 matches by 1+ goals (2-0, 2-0, 2-0, 4-0, 2-1), covering -0.5 each time. Mineros have lost 3 of last 5 away by multiple goals (1-3, 0-4, 1-4). H2H at home: Tepatitlan won 4-0 last meeting. Standings gap, recent form, and common opponents all support the handicap. Goal line and corner markets disqualified by home team's low Over history (40% in FT/HT). |
|
| 04-05-2026 01:15 |
Toluca |
- |
Pachuca |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
70% |
Expected full-time total of 3.30 goals (Toluca home avg 2.20, Pachuca away avg 1.60, both concede 1.40) comfortably exceeds the split line of 2.5/3.0. H2H supports with 75% Over (3 of 4), and recent form is strong: Toluca 80% Over in last 5 home matches, Pachuca 70% Over away. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (GL_5 1.25 and 1.40) so no added edge, but the gap and structural signals give clear direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 01:15 |
Toluca |
- |
Pachuca |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.30 from averages (Toluca home 2.20, Pachuca away concede 1.40; Pachuca away 1.60, Toluca home concede 1.40) exceeds line 2.75 by 0.55. Toluca 75% of last 4 home matches over, Pachuca 60% of last 5 away over, H2H 75% over (3 of 4). No structural under signals; bookmaker mispricing marginal (GL_5 1.25/1.40) but direction aligns. Strong over case. |
|
| 04-05-2026 08:30 |
PSM Makassar |
- |
Bhayangkara FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.55 goals (PSM home avg 1.30, Bhayangkara away conceded 1.60, Bhayangkara away scored 2.30, PSM conceded 1.90) far above 2.5 line. Bhayangkara away record: 4/5 over 2.5 (80%), and PSM home 3/5 over (60%). Both teams have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 respective matches, confirming defensive fragility. Bhayangkara's GL_5 of 1.55 signals moderate bookmaker mispricing in the Over direction. Confidence 82% (standard ceiling). |
|
| 04-05-2026 08:30 |
Persib Bandung |
- |
PSIM Yogyakarta |
Over 2.5 Goals |
66% |
Expected total 2.90 (Persib home avg 2.10 + PSIM away conceded 1.60, PSIM away avg 1.40 + Persib home conceded 0.70) exceeds line 2.75. Persib dominates at home (14-1-0, 28 GF/3 GA) and PSIM conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away. Persib's GL_5 variance of 1.80 (accelerating) indicates bookmaker mispricing on the Over side. Match history shows 56% Over for both teams but structural factors (quality gap, defensive fragility) outweigh weak history per Over-first philosophy. |
|
| 04-05-2026 08:45 |
Bunga Raya |
- |
Johor Darul Takzim II |
Under 5.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals calculated at 2.95 (home avg 1.60 at home + away avg 0.30 conceded away averaged with away avg 1.90 away + home avg 2.10 conceded at home) is far below the 5.5 line. Home team has only 1 of 7 matches over 5.5 (14%), away team 0 of 7 (0%). Away team Johor Darul Takzim II has kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 away matches, a strong defensive structural signal. H2H saw a 3-0 total (under). Bunga Raya's GL_5 of 2.35 and Johor's GL_5 of 1.50 indicate significant bookmaker mispricing aligning with the under direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 08:45 |
Selangor II |
- |
Kedah FA |
Over 8.5 Asian Corners |
74% |
Expected total corners 8.85 (home avg 5.8 + away conceded 2.5 vs away avg 4.6 + home conceded 4.8) exceeds line 8.5. Selangor II have gone Over 8.5 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70%), and the H2H match produced 15 corners. Structural quality gap (2nd vs 3rd) and severe bookmaker mispricing (home variance_ac_5=3.10) further support the Over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 09:00 |
Brisbane City |
- |
St George Willawong FC |
Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.20 (Brisbane City home 1st half avg 0.50, conceded 1.00; St George Willawong away 1st half avg 0.30, conceded 0.60) vs line 1.5. Brisbane City scored in only 1 of last 5 home 1st halves (20%) and St George failed to score in 3 of last 5 away 1st halves (60%). Under hits in 100% of St George's last 6 away matches (0% over 1.5). Away team GL_5 of 1.60 adds moderate mispricing edge in the Under direction (expected total below line). Confidence: 50% base +5% gap +10% away history +10% structural (both teams fail to score often) +3% likelihood support = 78%. |
|
| 04-05-2026 10:30 |
Eastern District U22 |
- |
Kowloon City U22 |
Over 2.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected total goals is 3.45 (home 1.40 at home + away concede 3.00 away; away 1.20 away + home concede 1.30), well above the 2.75 line. Kowloon City U22 conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 6 away matches (4-0, 5-1, 3-0, 3-0), and their away match history shows 4 of 6 (66.7%) went Over 2.75. Although Eastern District's home history is mixed (2 of 5 Over), the away defensive fragility and 0.70 goal gap favour the Over, with mild market mispricing (home GL_5 = 1.45, away GL_5 = 1.40). |
|
| 04-05-2026 11:30 |
Albirex Niigata Singapore |
- |
Young Lions |
Under 4.0 Goals |
84% |
Albirex average 2.20 goals at home and concede 1.10; Young Lions average 0.50 away and concede 2.60, yielding an expected total of 3.20—0.8 below the 4.0 line. Home matches have 75% under (6/8 decisive) and away matches 78% under (7/9), while H2H shows 3 of 4 matches under 4 goals, confirming strong structural alignment for Under despite the quality gap. |
|
| 04-05-2026 12:00 |
Aston Villa Women |
- |
West Ham Women |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals 3.55 from (1.40+1.40)/2 + (1.20+3.10)/2. Aston Villa home matches: 8/10 over 2.5 (80%), West Ham matches: 6/10 over (60%). Aston Villa concede 3.10 goals per home game, and their severe GL_5 mispricing of 3.35 indicates bookmakers consistently underestimate goal totals in their matches. |
|
| 04-05-2026 12:00 |
Persijap Jepara |
- |
Persija Jakarta |
Over 9.5 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners 10.4 exceeds the line of 9.5, calculated from Persijap's home averages (5.00 scored, 4.50 conceded) and Persija's away averages (7.60 scored, 3.70 conceded). Persijap's home matches went Over 9.5 in 3 of 5 (60%), and Persija's away matches went Over in 2 of 4. The significant quality gap (Persija 3rd, Persijap 13th) and Persija's high away corner average (7.6) create sustained attacking pressure. Away team's corner variance of 3.20 indicates severe bookmaker mispricing in the corners market. |
|
| 04-05-2026 12:30 |
CSKA Sofia II |
- |
Yantra Gabrovo |
Over 2.25 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 3.20 goals (home avg 2.20, away conceded 1.00; away avg 1.90, home conceded 1.30) vs line 2.25. Both teams have 60% of recent matches going over 2.5. H2H is mixed (1 over, 2 under) but not a strong veto. High market pricing error for CSKA (GL_5=2.05) suggests the line is underpriced. Confidence 78%. |
|
| 04-05-2026 12:30 |
Hong Kong FC U22 |
- |
Tai Po U22 |
Over 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st Half total of 2.00 (home avg 0.90 + away avg conceded 1.20 = 1.05 per side, away avg 1.70 + home conceded 0.20 = 0.95) well above the 1.25 line. Away team Tai Po U22 has 4 of their last 5 away 1st halves going over 1.25 (80%), while home team Hong Kong FC shows mixed 2 of 4. Structural edge from away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ goals in 5/5 away FT) and strong bookmaker mispricing on away goals (GL_5=2.35, accelerating) further support the Over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 13:00 |
Adama City |
- |
Mechal SC |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 2.42 (based on Adama City's home avg 0.90, conceded 1.80, Mechal SC's away avg 1.43, conceded 0.71) exceeds the line of 1.75 by 0.67. Adama City's last 6 home matches saw 5 over 1.75 (83%), and Mechal SC's last 5 away matches saw 4 over 1.75 (80%). The only H2H this season ended 1-3 (4 goals). Structural factors: Mechal SC (2nd) vs Adama City (16th) is a dominant-weak matchup, and Mechal SC conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches, signaling defensive fragility. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (Mechal's GL_5=1.15). |
|
| 04-05-2026 13:00 |
Hawassa City FC |
- |
Shaggar City |
Over 1.75 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 2.10 from home 0.90+away conceded 0.80 averaged with away scored 1.20+home conceded 1.30 exceeds line 1.75. Shaggar's last 4 away matches all went Over (100%), and H2H produced 3 goals. Hawassa's GL_5 of 1.60 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing, adding edge despite a low home scoring rate (2/5 home matches Over). |
|
| 04-05-2026 13:00 |
Real Kashmir FC |
- |
Namdhari FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.25 (home avg 1.80 + away conceded 2.10)/2 + (away scored 1.20 + home conceded 1.40)/2 exceeds line 2.75. Home has 80% Over in last 5 home matches (3-0,2-0,6-2,1-2,1-2). Away defensive fragility (conceded 2.10 avg away) and severe bookmaker mispricing (away GL_5 2.20 accelerating) add edge. H2H only 2 matches (both Under) but small sample. |
|
| 04-05-2026 13:00 |
Muglaspor |
- |
Sanliurfaspor |
Over 2.25 Goals |
65% |
Expected total 2.35 (home avg 1.00 + away avg conceded 1.40)/2 + (away avg 1.50 + home conceded 0.80)/2 = 2.35 vs line 2.25. Sanliurfaspor away: 4/4 (100%) over 2.25, conceding 2+ in 3 of 4 away matches, but Muglaspor home: 2/5 (40%) over and H2H both under (2 matches, neutral sample). Market pricing error moderate (away GL_5=1.20) but not enough to exceed structural weakness at home; overall 65% confidence. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Xorazm Urganch |
- |
FK Andijan |
1st Half Over 0.75 Goals |
65% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.70 (home 0.20+away conceded 0.30=0.50/2 plus away scored 0.40+home conceded 0.50=0.90/2). Home's last 5 home matches saw 4 over 0.5 goals (80%) and away's last 6 away matches saw 4 over (67%). Despite away's scoring drought in 5 of 6 first halves, the overall history supports the Over. Market pricing error is moderate (GL_5 home 1.15, away 1.25) but not direction-aligned. The line is 0.75 with odds 1.75, offering value given the clear first-half trends. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Odisha FC |
- |
Bengaluru |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total of 2.65 (home avg 0.90+away conceded 1.00 avg and away scored 1.40+home conceded 2.00) exceeds 2.5 line by 0.15, supported by each team's 60% Over rate in last 5 matches (3/5 for both). H2H shows 2/4 Over (neutral), while Bengaluru's GL_5 of 1.65 signals bookmaker mispricing on Over side. Quality gap (Bengaluru 6th vs Odisha 13th) adds mild structural edge. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Kucukcekmece Sinopspor |
- |
Corluspor 1947 |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected total 2.8 (home avg 1.90 at home + away conceded 1.10 away; away avg 1.80 away + home conceded 0.80 home) exceeds the 2.5 line. Home team has 60% Over in recent matches, away 57% away — both support Over. High GL_5 variance (2.10, accelerating) for Corluspor signals bookmaker mispricing on their matches, adding edge. Home team's form surge (3 home wins with 2+ goals each) and both teams in promotion race further support Over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Hednesford |
- |
Warrington Rylands |
Over 4.0 1st Half Corners |
82% |
Expected 1st half corners total is 5.0 (home HT avg 1.9, conceded 2.9; away HT avg 2.3, conceded 2.9), well above the line of 4.0 giving a +1.0 gap. Both teams show 60% of their last 10 matches going over 4.0 HT corners, and Hednesford's early attacking pattern (90% score first half at home) should generate sustained pressure. Strong bookmaker mispricing is indicated by home AC_5 of 4.10 (severe) and away AC_5 of 2.30 (strong), both supporting the Over direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Billericay Town |
- |
Brentwood Town |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total calculated as (3.00+1.50)/2 + (2.50+1.00)/2 = 4.00 goals, well above the 3.25 line. Brentwood have conceded 2+ goals in all 4 recent away matches, while Billericay's severe goal line mispricing (GL_5=2.20, accelerating) adds further edge. Away history shows 75% of matches going over the line, supporting the Over bet. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:45 |
Vihren Sandanski |
- |
FK Fratria |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total goals 3.20 (home avg 2.40 + away avg conceded 1.20 /2 + away avg 1.70 + home avg conceded 1.10 /2) exceeds line 2.5 by 0.70. Home team (Vihren) has 6 of last 10 matches over 2.5 (60%), away team (Fratria) 5 of 10 (50%). Likelihood data shows 60% chance of over 2.5. Bookmaker mispricing mild (home GL_5 1.20, away 0.75) adds no margin. No H2H data. Confidence 68% meets threshold. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:45 |
Vihren Sandanski |
- |
FK Fratria |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.60 goals (home avg 1.10, away conceded 0.70, away avg 1.00, home conceded 0.40) vs line 1.0, a gap of 0.60. Away team Fratria has 60% of their last 5 away matches going Over 1.0 in the first half (3/5), and home team Vihren has 50% at home (2/4). Both are top-4 sides; Fratria's attacking quality away (1.70 FT avg) supports early goals. Market mispricing is low (home GL_5 1.20, away 0.75). No H2H data. |
|
| 04-05-2026 15:00 |
FK Radnik Surdulica |
- |
Vojvodina |
Over 2.25 Goals |
80% |
Expected total 2.40 (home avg 1.20 + away avg 0.90 /2, away avg 1.70 + home avg 1.00 /2) exceeds line 2.25. Radnik home: 3/4 (75%) over; Vojvodina away: 3/5 (60%) over. H2H split 2-2, neutral. Quality gap (Vojvodina 3rd, Radnik 7th) favors Over. Away GL_5 1.95 (strong mispricing, accelerating) adds edge. Confidence 80%. |
|
| 04-05-2026 15:00 |
JS Omrane |
- |
Esperance de Tunis |
Over 0.75 1st Half Goals |
65% |
Expected 1st half total of 0.75 matches the line of 0.75. JS Omrane averages 0.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded at home in the first half; Esperance averages 0.40 scored and 0.40 conceded away. 60% of Omrane's last 10 home matches (e.g., 2-1 vs ES Metlaoui, 2-1 vs US Ben Guerdane) and 60% of Esperance's last 5 away matches (e.g., 3-0 at Olympique Beja, 3-2 at Al Ahly) went over 0.75 HT goals. The clear quality gap (Esperance 2nd, Omrane 8th) combined with over-first philosophy make the Over the best bet despite low bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.15 for Esperance, 0.95 for Omrane). |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Shamrock Rovers |
- |
Drogheda United |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.60 (home 1.30 avg goals at home + away 1.80 conceded away /2 plus away 1.30 scored away + home 0.80 conceded at home /2) exceeds line 2.5. Home last 5 home matches: 60% over 2.5 goals (3 of 5). Away last 5 away matches: 100% over 2.5 goals (5 of 5). H2H: 75% over (3 of 4). Structural factors: quality gap (1st vs 8th), away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in all last 5 away). Bookmaker mispricing: away GL_5 2.20 (strong, accelerating), home GL_5 1.55 (moderate). |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Bohemians Dublin |
- |
Shelbourne |
Over 2.25 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 2.65 (Bohemians home avg 0.80, Shelbourne away conceded 1.90; Shelbourne away avg 1.60, Bohemians home conceded 1.00). Shelbourne are 80% over in last 10 away games, while Bohemians are 30% over at home, but Shelbourne's high-scoring away form and strong bookmaker mispricing (away GL_5=2.00, accelerating) provide edge. H2H is balanced (2 over, 2 under). Market pricing error for Shelbourne is high (GL_5=2.00), indicating consistent underestimation of goals. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Longford Town |
- |
Athlone Town |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
85% |
Expected 1st half total is just 0.70 (Longford home avg 0.20, Athlone away avg 0.40), well below the 1.0 line. Longford's last 5 home matches saw 0% over 1.0 in the first half (all totals ≤1), and Athlone's last 5 away visits had 80% under 1.0, with both teams' low-scoring 1st half patterns reinforcing the structural Under signal. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Sligo Rovers |
- |
St Patricks |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
81% |
Expected 1st half total = (Sligo HT scored 0.4 + conceded 0.7)/2 + (StP HT scored 1.1 + conceded 0.6)/2 = 1.4, above line 1.0. Sligo home HT: 3 of last 5 over 1.0; St Patricks away HT: 3 of last 4 over 1.0. Quality gap (2nd vs 9th) and StP's potent away attack (avg 2.3 goals) add structural over edge. StP's GL_5 of 1.70 indicates bookmaker mispricing supporting over direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Derry City |
- |
Galway United |
Over 9.0 Asian Corners |
78% |
Expected total corners 10.95 (home 5.1 avg, away concede 6.6 avg) exceeds the 9.0 line by +1.95. Galway United have gone Over 9 in 4 of 6 away matches (67%) and concede a high 6.6 corners away, a structural Over signal. H2H corners are split (2 Over, 2 Under), but the strong gap and away team's corner vulnerability give this bet 78% confidence. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Treaty United FC |
- |
Wexford FC |
Over 8.5 Corners |
68% |
Expected total corners 8.15 (Treaty home 4.80+conceded 4.60, Wexford away 3.40+conceded 3.50) is slightly below the 8.5 line, but over-first approach applies. Treaty has 3/4 home matches Over 8.5 (75%), and H2H corners show 3/4 matches Over 8.5 (75%). Combined with the quality gap (Wexford 3rd vs Treaty 10th) and over-first bias, corners Over 8.5 offers the best value at 68% confidence. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Finn Harps |
- |
Bray Wanderers |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
80% |
Expected 1st half goals total is just 0.70 (Finn Harps home HT avg 0.20 + Bray away HT conceded avg 0.40 averaged, plus Bray away HT avg 0.30 + Finn home HT conceded avg 0.50 averaged). Finn Harps have seen over 1.0 HT goals in only 1 of their last 10 matches (10%), while Bray Wanderers have 0 of 10 (0%). This overwhelming historical under pattern, combined with the structural low-scoring trend for both sides, makes the Under 1.0 the clear value bet despite the Over-first preference. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Al Ahli Amman |
- |
Al-Baqa'a |
Over 2.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected goals 3.05 (home 1.20 avg at home, away 2.20 avg conceded away, away 1.50 avg scored away, home 1.20 avg conceded at home) exceeds the 2.5 line. Al-Baqa'a has gone Over 2.5 in 8 of their last 10 matches (80%) and concedes 2.20 goals per away game, a structural defensive fragility. Although H2H shows 3 Under in 4 meetings, the away team's severe market mispricing (GL_5 2.70, accelerating) indicates the bookmaker consistently underestimates goals in Al-Baqa'a matches, supporting the Over side. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Al-Jazeera |
- |
Shabab Al Ordon |
Over 9.5 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners 10.60 (home avg 4.70 + concedes 5.90, away avg 4.00 + concedes 6.60) exceeds the 9.5 line. Home team has gone Over in all 3 recent home matches (100%), and H2H corners are Over in 3 of 4 meetings (75%). Away team's severe corner mispricing (variance AC_5=3.30) adds further edge, with structural weakness conceding 6.60 corners per away game. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa |
- |
Hapoel Nof HaGalil |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st half total 1.35 (home avg 0.60 + away conceded 1.10)/2 + (away avg 0.70 + home conceded 0.30)/2 exceeds the 1.0 line. Away team scored in HT in all 5 away matches (strong structural signal), while both teams need points in relegation round. Bookmaker mispricing: away team's GL_5 = 2.10 (severe and accelerating) adds edge to Over. Despite H2H being low-scoring overall, 1st half pattern and variance support an Over bet. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Al-Najma Manama |
- |
Al-Muharraq |
Over 4.5 1st Half Corners |
68% |
Expected 1st half corners of 5.35 (home avg 3.10, away avg 3.80, conceded averages) exceed the 4.5 line by 0.85. Al-Najma's home 1st half corners history shows 3/4 (75%) over 4.5, while Al-Muharraq averages 3.8 corners away in the first half. The vast quality gap (2nd vs 10th) points to sustained early pressure from the dominant away side, supporting an Over bet. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
HUSA Agadir |
- |
OC Safi |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.00 goals (HUSA home avg 0.30 scored, 0.60 conceded; OC Safi away avg 0.60 scored, 0.50 conceded) vs line of 0.75. HUSA's last 5 home matches had 80% 1st half over 0.75 (4/5), and OC Safi's last 5 away matches had 100% 1st half over (5/5), providing strong historical alignment. No significant bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 both below 1.5). |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
URA |
- |
SC Villa |
Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half |
73% |
SC Villa's away 1st half scoring record is perfect (4/4 over 0.75 goals) including 2-0 at Entebbe and 1-0 at Lugazi, while URA home 1st half matches have averaged 0.8 total goals. The expected 1st half total of 0.75 equals the line, and SC Villa's quality advantage (3rd vs 11th) combined with their early scoring pattern creates a strong Over signal. Market mispricing is moderate for URA (GL_5=1.55, accelerating), adding further edge. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:10 |
Al Fayha |
- |
Al Riyadh |
Al Fayha -0.25 (Asian Handicap) |
72% |
Al Fayha are 11th (35pts) hosting 16th-placed Al Riyadh (23pts) who are in the relegation zone. Home form is excellent: 4 wins in last 5 home matches (1-0, 3-0, 3-1, 2-0) while Al Riyadh have only 2 away wins all season. H2H also favours Al Fayha – unbeaten in 4 meetings (1 win, 3 draws). The handicap of -0.25 is a shallow line and Al Fayha’s 80% cover rate in recent home matches supports them at least avoiding defeat (draw results in half-win). |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:20 |
Al Shabab Seeb |
- |
Al Rustaq |
Over 3.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 3.65 (home avg 2.9 + away conceded 1.8)/2 + (away scored 1.0 + home conceded 1.6)/2. Home team's over 3 rate is 6/10 (60%) despite pushes; away team's away defensive fragility (4 of last 5 away conceded 2+) and the massive quality gap (2nd vs 14th) strongly favor over. Market mispricing is severe with home GL_5 2.80 and away GL_5 1.70, both accelerating. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:30 |
Cremonese |
- |
Lazio |
Over 9.0 Corners |
70% |
Expected total corners 9.55 (home avg 4.00 + conceded 5.80, away avg 3.60 + conceded 5.70) exceeds the 9.0 line. Cremonese home corners over 9 in 60% of matches, Lazio away corners over 9 in 80% (4/5), including recent totals of 12, 11, 13. Quality gap (Lazio 10th vs Cremonese 18th) suggests sustained attacking pressure for Lazio, driving corner count. H2H corners are mixed but overall trend supports over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:30 |
SCR Altach |
- |
Wolfsberger AC |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.95 goals (Altach HT avg 0.80 at home, Wolfsberger HT avg 0.40 away), below the line of 1.0. Both teams have 70% of their last 10 matches under 1.0 HT goals (7/10 each). Altach concedes only 0.30 HT goals at home and Wolfsberger scores only 0.40 HT away, with Wolfsberger failing to score in the 1st half in 3 of their last 5 away games. Bookmaker mispricing is high (home GL_5: 1.85, away GL_5: 1.70) and accelerating, aligning with the under direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:30 |
Hearts |
- |
Rangers |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 3.25 (Hearts home avg 1.30, Rangers away avg 2.60) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.50. Rangers have gone Over 2.5 in 8 of last 10 matches (80%), and H2H shows 3 of 4 Over (75%). Market mispricing is severe for Rangers (GL_5=2.90, accelerating), adding significant edge to the Over side. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:45 |
CR Belouizdad |
- |
USM Khenchela |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
66% |
Expected total 2.75 (home avg 1.90, away conceded 1.60, away scored 1.40, home conceded 0.60). USM Khenchela's away defensive fragility (4/5 away conceded 2+ goals) and 70% Over rate in their recent matches support Over, despite home 50% and split H2H (2-2). Home GL_5=2.15 shows strong bookmaker mispricing, but direction is neutral. Confidence 66%. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
FC Porto B |
- |
Felgueiras 1932 |
Under 1.0 Goals 1st Half |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.90 goals (home HT avg 0.50, away HT avg 0.20, conceded averages 0.70/0.40), well below the 1.0 line. Home matches have 70% under (7/10) and away matches 80% under (8/10) for HT goals. Structurally, Felgueiras failed to score in HT in 4 of their last 5 away matches, and both teams are low 1st-half scorers. Bookmaker mispricing away GL_5 is 1.30 (mild), aligning with the under direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
Halmstad |
- |
Brommapojkarna |
Under 10 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected corners total 8.35 is well below the 10 line. Halmstad and Brommapojkarna each have 70% of their last 10 matches under 10 corners (7/10 each). H2H corners are split 2-2, not contradicting. Structural underperformance and a strong historical record support the under, with high corner variance (AC_5 3.6/3.5) indicating bookmaker mispricing. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
Midtjylland |
- |
Viborg |
Under 1.0,1.5 1st Half Goals |
82% |
Expected 1st half goals is only 0.75 (Midtjylland home 1st half avg 0.20, Viborg away conceded 0.50; away scored 0.50, home conceded 0.30) vs line of 1.25. Midtjylland's last 5 home 1st halves all had 0 or 1 goal (100% under), while Viborg's last 4 away 1st halves had 3 of 4 under (75%). H2H matches also trend low (2,6,2,1 goals FT, with two 1st halves 0-0). Structural pattern of slow starts and GL_5 mispricing of 0.80/1.00 is mild but supports under. Confidence capped at 82% per standard ceiling. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
FK Cukaricki |
- |
Crvena Zvezda |
Over 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
81% |
Expected 1st half total (1.65) exceeds the line of 1.25 by 0.40 goals, driven by Crvena Zvezda's away 1st half average of 1.70 goals and 80% over record in recent away 1st halves. Home team Cukaricki's 1st half record is weak (20% over), but the structural quality gap (Zvezda 1st, Cukaricki 8th) and Zvezda's 100% 1st half scoring rate away outweigh this, supported by strong bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5=2.20). |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
Midtjylland |
- |
Viborg |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.75 (Midtjylland home avg 0.20, Viborg away conceded 0.50; Viborg away avg 0.50, Midtjylland home conceded 0.30), well below the 1.25 line. Midtjylland's last 10 matches have only 1 with 2+ 1st half goals (10% Over), and Viborg's last 4 away matches have just 1 over (25% Over). The most recent H2H had a 0-0 first half, and both teams show low 1st half scoring patterns structurally. This gives strong under evidence meeting the 82% confidence threshold. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:05 |
Landskrona BoIS |
- |
Osters IF |
Over 2.5 Goals |
90% |
Expected total of 3.50 goals (home avg 1.20 scored & 1.90 conceded, away avg 1.50 scored & 2.40 conceded) easily clears the 2.5 line. Home matches are 75% over (3/4), away matches 100% over (5/5), and H2H is 75% over (3/4). Osters' GL_5 of 2.05 (accelerating from 1.63) signals strong bookmaker mispricing on the over side, adding further edge. Confidence capped at 90% under exceptional ceiling. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:30 |
Vikingur Gota |
- |
07 Vestur |
Under 1.25 1st Half Goals |
78% |
Expected 1st half goals (0.95) well below the 1.25 line. 07 Vestur have failed to score in the 1st half in all 4 recent away matches (scoring drought). Vikingur's last 5 home 1st halves have produced 1 or fewer goals in 4/5 (80% Under). Past H2H matches also trend Under (75%). These structural patterns support a low-scoring first half. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:30 |
B36 Torshavn |
- |
NSI Runavik |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.00 goals from B36's 2.10 avg scored at home and 0.80 conceded, and NSI's 1.80 away scored and 1.30 conceded. Recent form supports: 2/3 B36 home matches and 3/4 NSI away matches went Over the 2.75 line. H2H has 4 straight Overs (3,4,7,4 goals), and bookmaker mispricing is severe (home GL_5 1.90, away GL_5 1.70, both accelerating), confirming the line is too low. |
|
| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
Al Ittifaq Dammam |
- |
Al Najma |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.85 (home avg 1.40, away conceded avg 3.10) exceeds the 3.0 line by 0.85. Home team has 60% of last 10 matches Over 3.0, away team 70% overall, and H2H saw 7 goals in the only meeting. Away team conceded 4+ goals in each of last 4 away matches (defensive fragility), and home team's high GL_5 of 1.95 indicates persistent bookmaker mispricing on Overs in their matches — both factors strongly align with the Over side. |
|
| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
Vasas SC |
- |
Budafoki MTE |
Under 1.25 1st Half Goals |
76% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.85 (Vasas home HT avg 0.80 + Budafoki away HT conceded 0.40 / 2 plus Budafoki away HT avg 0.40 + Vasas home HT conceded 0.10 / 2) vs the 1.25 line. Vasas have gone Under 1.5 in 7 of 9 last matches (78%) and Budafoki in 9 of 10 (90%). H2H also produced low-scoring matches (all under 3 FT, likely low HT). Two strong structural reasons (both teams' low HT scoring history) support the Under, with no bookmaker mispricing edge (GL_5 0.95 and 0.55). |
|
| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
US Yacoub El Mansour |
- |
RSB Berkane |
Over 3.5 Corners (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half corners total 4.45 (home avg HT corners 2.20, away avg HT corners 2.80, adjusted via conceded) exceeds line 3.5. Home team 80% (8/10) of recent matches over 3.5 HT corners, away 60% (6/10). Structural quality gap (RSB Berkane 5th vs US YEM 16th) and away AC_5 mispricing (2.50) support over. Combined confidence 82%. |
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