| 04-05-2026 08:45 |
Bunga Raya |
- |
Johor Darul Takzim II |
Under 5.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals calculated at 2.95 (home avg 1.60 at home + away avg 0.30 conceded away averaged with away avg 1.90 away + home avg 2.10 conceded at home) is far below the 5.5 line. Home team has only 1 of 7 matches over 5.5 (14%), away team 0 of 7 (0%). Away team Johor Darul Takzim II has kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 away matches, a strong defensive structural signal. H2H saw a 3-0 total (under). Bunga Raya's GL_5 of 2.35 and Johor's GL_5 of 1.50 indicate significant bookmaker mispricing aligning with the under direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 08:45 |
Selangor II |
- |
Kedah FA |
Over 8.5 Asian Corners |
74% |
Expected total corners 8.85 (home avg 5.8 + away conceded 2.5 vs away avg 4.6 + home conceded 4.8) exceeds line 8.5. Selangor II have gone Over 8.5 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70%), and the H2H match produced 15 corners. Structural quality gap (2nd vs 3rd) and severe bookmaker mispricing (home variance_ac_5=3.10) further support the Over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 09:00 |
Brisbane City |
- |
St George Willawong FC |
Under 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.20 (Brisbane City home 1st half avg 0.50, conceded 1.00; St George Willawong away 1st half avg 0.30, conceded 0.60) vs line 1.5. Brisbane City scored in only 1 of last 5 home 1st halves (20%) and St George failed to score in 3 of last 5 away 1st halves (60%). Under hits in 100% of St George's last 6 away matches (0% over 1.5). Away team GL_5 of 1.60 adds moderate mispricing edge in the Under direction (expected total below line). Confidence: 50% base +5% gap +10% away history +10% structural (both teams fail to score often) +3% likelihood support = 78%. |
|
| 04-05-2026 10:30 |
Eastern District U22 |
- |
Kowloon City U22 |
Over 2.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected total goals is 3.45 (home 1.40 at home + away concede 3.00 away; away 1.20 away + home concede 1.30), well above the 2.75 line. Kowloon City U22 conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 6 away matches (4-0, 5-1, 3-0, 3-0), and their away match history shows 4 of 6 (66.7%) went Over 2.75. Although Eastern District's home history is mixed (2 of 5 Over), the away defensive fragility and 0.70 goal gap favour the Over, with mild market mispricing (home GL_5 = 1.45, away GL_5 = 1.40). |
|
| 04-05-2026 11:30 |
Albirex Niigata Singapore |
- |
Young Lions |
Under 4.0 Goals |
84% |
Albirex average 2.20 goals at home and concede 1.10; Young Lions average 0.50 away and concede 2.60, yielding an expected total of 3.20—0.8 below the 4.0 line. Home matches have 75% under (6/8 decisive) and away matches 78% under (7/9), while H2H shows 3 of 4 matches under 4 goals, confirming strong structural alignment for Under despite the quality gap. |
|
| 04-05-2026 12:00 |
Aston Villa Women |
- |
West Ham Women |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected full-time goals 3.55 from (1.40+1.40)/2 + (1.20+3.10)/2. Aston Villa home matches: 8/10 over 2.5 (80%), West Ham matches: 6/10 over (60%). Aston Villa concede 3.10 goals per home game, and their severe GL_5 mispricing of 3.35 indicates bookmakers consistently underestimate goal totals in their matches. |
|
| 04-05-2026 12:00 |
Persijap Jepara |
- |
Persija Jakarta |
Over 9.5 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners 10.4 exceeds the line of 9.5, calculated from Persijap's home averages (5.00 scored, 4.50 conceded) and Persija's away averages (7.60 scored, 3.70 conceded). Persijap's home matches went Over 9.5 in 3 of 5 (60%), and Persija's away matches went Over in 2 of 4. The significant quality gap (Persija 3rd, Persijap 13th) and Persija's high away corner average (7.6) create sustained attacking pressure. Away team's corner variance of 3.20 indicates severe bookmaker mispricing in the corners market. |
|
| 04-05-2026 12:30 |
CSKA Sofia II |
- |
Yantra Gabrovo |
Over 2.25 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 3.20 goals (home avg 2.20, away conceded 1.00; away avg 1.90, home conceded 1.30) vs line 2.25. Both teams have 60% of recent matches going over 2.5. H2H is mixed (1 over, 2 under) but not a strong veto. High market pricing error for CSKA (GL_5=2.05) suggests the line is underpriced. Confidence 78%. |
|
| 04-05-2026 12:30 |
Hong Kong FC U22 |
- |
Tai Po U22 |
Over 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st Half total of 2.00 (home avg 0.90 + away avg conceded 1.20 = 1.05 per side, away avg 1.70 + home conceded 0.20 = 0.95) well above the 1.25 line. Away team Tai Po U22 has 4 of their last 5 away 1st halves going over 1.25 (80%), while home team Hong Kong FC shows mixed 2 of 4. Structural edge from away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ goals in 5/5 away FT) and strong bookmaker mispricing on away goals (GL_5=2.35, accelerating) further support the Over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 13:00 |
Adama City |
- |
Mechal SC |
Over 1.5,2.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 2.42 (based on Adama City's home avg 0.90, conceded 1.80, Mechal SC's away avg 1.43, conceded 0.71) exceeds the line of 1.75 by 0.67. Adama City's last 6 home matches saw 5 over 1.75 (83%), and Mechal SC's last 5 away matches saw 4 over 1.75 (80%). The only H2H this season ended 1-3 (4 goals). Structural factors: Mechal SC (2nd) vs Adama City (16th) is a dominant-weak matchup, and Mechal SC conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches, signaling defensive fragility. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (Mechal's GL_5=1.15). |
|
| 04-05-2026 13:00 |
Hawassa City FC |
- |
Shaggar City |
Over 1.75 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 2.10 from home 0.90+away conceded 0.80 averaged with away scored 1.20+home conceded 1.30 exceeds line 1.75. Shaggar's last 4 away matches all went Over (100%), and H2H produced 3 goals. Hawassa's GL_5 of 1.60 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing, adding edge despite a low home scoring rate (2/5 home matches Over). |
|
| 04-05-2026 13:00 |
Real Kashmir FC |
- |
Namdhari FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.25 (home avg 1.80 + away conceded 2.10)/2 + (away scored 1.20 + home conceded 1.40)/2 exceeds line 2.75. Home has 80% Over in last 5 home matches (3-0,2-0,6-2,1-2,1-2). Away defensive fragility (conceded 2.10 avg away) and severe bookmaker mispricing (away GL_5 2.20 accelerating) add edge. H2H only 2 matches (both Under) but small sample. |
|
| 04-05-2026 13:00 |
Muglaspor |
- |
Sanliurfaspor |
Over 2.25 Goals |
65% |
Expected total 2.35 (home avg 1.00 + away avg conceded 1.40)/2 + (away avg 1.50 + home conceded 0.80)/2 = 2.35 vs line 2.25. Sanliurfaspor away: 4/4 (100%) over 2.25, conceding 2+ in 3 of 4 away matches, but Muglaspor home: 2/5 (40%) over and H2H both under (2 matches, neutral sample). Market pricing error moderate (away GL_5=1.20) but not enough to exceed structural weakness at home; overall 65% confidence. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Xorazm Urganch |
- |
FK Andijan |
1st Half Over 0.75 Goals |
65% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.70 (home 0.20+away conceded 0.30=0.50/2 plus away scored 0.40+home conceded 0.50=0.90/2). Home's last 5 home matches saw 4 over 0.5 goals (80%) and away's last 6 away matches saw 4 over (67%). Despite away's scoring drought in 5 of 6 first halves, the overall history supports the Over. Market pricing error is moderate (GL_5 home 1.15, away 1.25) but not direction-aligned. The line is 0.75 with odds 1.75, offering value given the clear first-half trends. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Odisha FC |
- |
Bengaluru |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total of 2.65 (home avg 0.90+away conceded 1.00 avg and away scored 1.40+home conceded 2.00) exceeds 2.5 line by 0.15, supported by each team's 60% Over rate in last 5 matches (3/5 for both). H2H shows 2/4 Over (neutral), while Bengaluru's GL_5 of 1.65 signals bookmaker mispricing on Over side. Quality gap (Bengaluru 6th vs Odisha 13th) adds mild structural edge. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Kucukcekmece Sinopspor |
- |
Corluspor 1947 |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected total 2.8 (home avg 1.90 at home + away conceded 1.10 away; away avg 1.80 away + home conceded 0.80 home) exceeds the 2.5 line. Home team has 60% Over in recent matches, away 57% away — both support Over. High GL_5 variance (2.10, accelerating) for Corluspor signals bookmaker mispricing on their matches, adding edge. Home team's form surge (3 home wins with 2+ goals each) and both teams in promotion race further support Over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Hednesford |
- |
Warrington Rylands |
Over 4.0 1st Half Corners |
82% |
Expected 1st half corners total is 5.0 (home HT avg 1.9, conceded 2.9; away HT avg 2.3, conceded 2.9), well above the line of 4.0 giving a +1.0 gap. Both teams show 60% of their last 10 matches going over 4.0 HT corners, and Hednesford's early attacking pattern (90% score first half at home) should generate sustained pressure. Strong bookmaker mispricing is indicated by home AC_5 of 4.10 (severe) and away AC_5 of 2.30 (strong), both supporting the Over direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:00 |
Billericay Town |
- |
Brentwood Town |
Over 3.25 Goals |
82% |
Expected total calculated as (3.00+1.50)/2 + (2.50+1.00)/2 = 4.00 goals, well above the 3.25 line. Brentwood have conceded 2+ goals in all 4 recent away matches, while Billericay's severe goal line mispricing (GL_5=2.20, accelerating) adds further edge. Away history shows 75% of matches going over the line, supporting the Over bet. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:45 |
Vihren Sandanski |
- |
FK Fratria |
Over 2.5 Goals |
68% |
Expected total goals 3.20 (home avg 2.40 + away avg conceded 1.20 /2 + away avg 1.70 + home avg conceded 1.10 /2) exceeds line 2.5 by 0.70. Home team (Vihren) has 6 of last 10 matches over 2.5 (60%), away team (Fratria) 5 of 10 (50%). Likelihood data shows 60% chance of over 2.5. Bookmaker mispricing mild (home GL_5 1.20, away 0.75) adds no margin. No H2H data. Confidence 68% meets threshold. |
|
| 04-05-2026 14:45 |
Vihren Sandanski |
- |
FK Fratria |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
70% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.60 goals (home avg 1.10, away conceded 0.70, away avg 1.00, home conceded 0.40) vs line 1.0, a gap of 0.60. Away team Fratria has 60% of their last 5 away matches going Over 1.0 in the first half (3/5), and home team Vihren has 50% at home (2/4). Both are top-4 sides; Fratria's attacking quality away (1.70 FT avg) supports early goals. Market mispricing is low (home GL_5 1.20, away 0.75). No H2H data. |
|
| 04-05-2026 15:00 |
FC Rukh Lviv |
- |
FC Zorya Lugansk |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
76% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.35 goals (home 0.20+away 0.90 vs conceded averages), above the 1.0 line. Rukh at home saw 75% of their matches go Over 1.0 in the first half (3/4), and Zorya away saw 83% (5/6). Zorya's away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away, including early goals) supports an Over. No H2H data for 1st half, but the trend is strong. |
|
| 04-05-2026 15:00 |
FK Radnik Surdulica |
- |
Vojvodina |
Over 2.25 Goals |
80% |
Expected total 2.40 (home avg 1.20 + away avg 0.90 /2, away avg 1.70 + home avg 1.00 /2) exceeds line 2.25. Radnik home: 3/4 (75%) over; Vojvodina away: 3/5 (60%) over. H2H split 2-2, neutral. Quality gap (Vojvodina 3rd, Radnik 7th) favors Over. Away GL_5 1.95 (strong mispricing, accelerating) adds edge. Confidence 80%. |
|
| 04-05-2026 15:00 |
JS Omrane |
- |
Esperance de Tunis |
Over 0.75 1st Half Goals |
65% |
Expected 1st half total of 0.75 matches the line of 0.75. JS Omrane averages 0.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded at home in the first half; Esperance averages 0.40 scored and 0.40 conceded away. 60% of Omrane's last 10 home matches (e.g., 2-1 vs ES Metlaoui, 2-1 vs US Ben Guerdane) and 60% of Esperance's last 5 away matches (e.g., 3-0 at Olympique Beja, 3-2 at Al Ahly) went over 0.75 HT goals. The clear quality gap (Esperance 2nd, Omrane 8th) combined with over-first philosophy make the Over the best bet despite low bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 1.15 for Esperance, 0.95 for Omrane). |
|
| 04-05-2026 15:30 |
FK Qarabag |
- |
PFK Turan Tovuz |
Over 2.5 Goals |
70% |
Expected total goals 2.90 (Qarabag home avg 2.70 goals scored + Turan away avg 0.80 conceded) /2 + (Turan away avg 1.40 scored + Qarabag home avg 0.90 conceded)/2 exceeds the 2.5 line. Qarabag's last 10 matches show 70% Over 2.5, H2H 75% Over (3/4). Bookmaker mispricing is high for Qarabag (GL_5=2.25, accelerating), suggesting the line underestimates goal potential. Despite Turan's low Over rate, Qarabag's attacking strength and the variance edge support an Over pick. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Shamrock Rovers |
- |
Drogheda United |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.60 (home 1.30 avg goals at home + away 1.80 conceded away /2 plus away 1.30 scored away + home 0.80 conceded at home /2) exceeds line 2.5. Home last 5 home matches: 60% over 2.5 goals (3 of 5). Away last 5 away matches: 100% over 2.5 goals (5 of 5). H2H: 75% over (3 of 4). Structural factors: quality gap (1st vs 8th), away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in all last 5 away). Bookmaker mispricing: away GL_5 2.20 (strong, accelerating), home GL_5 1.55 (moderate). |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Bohemians Dublin |
- |
Shelbourne |
Over 2.25 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 2.65 (Bohemians home avg 0.80, Shelbourne away conceded 1.90; Shelbourne away avg 1.60, Bohemians home conceded 1.00). Shelbourne are 80% over in last 10 away games, while Bohemians are 30% over at home, but Shelbourne's high-scoring away form and strong bookmaker mispricing (away GL_5=2.00, accelerating) provide edge. H2H is balanced (2 over, 2 under). Market pricing error for Shelbourne is high (GL_5=2.00), indicating consistent underestimation of goals. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Longford Town |
- |
Athlone Town |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
85% |
Expected 1st half total is just 0.70 (Longford home avg 0.20, Athlone away avg 0.40), well below the 1.0 line. Longford's last 5 home matches saw 0% over 1.0 in the first half (all totals ≤1), and Athlone's last 5 away visits had 80% under 1.0, with both teams' low-scoring 1st half patterns reinforcing the structural Under signal. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Sligo Rovers |
- |
St Patricks |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
81% |
Expected 1st half total = (Sligo HT scored 0.4 + conceded 0.7)/2 + (StP HT scored 1.1 + conceded 0.6)/2 = 1.4, above line 1.0. Sligo home HT: 3 of last 5 over 1.0; St Patricks away HT: 3 of last 4 over 1.0. Quality gap (2nd vs 9th) and StP's potent away attack (avg 2.3 goals) add structural over edge. StP's GL_5 of 1.70 indicates bookmaker mispricing supporting over direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Derry City |
- |
Galway United |
Over 9 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners 10.95 (Derry home avg 5.10 + Galway away conceded avg 6.60, and Galway away avg 5.00 + Derry home conceded avg 5.20) well above line 9. Recent history supports: Derry home 2/3 and Galway away 4/6 matches over 9 corners. Galway's severe corner mispricing (AC_5=4.4) and high conceded corners (avg 6.60) add strong structural Over signal. H2H corners split 2-2, not a veto. Confidence 82% with gap +15%, history +5% each, structural +5%, likelihood +3%. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Treaty United FC |
- |
Wexford FC |
Over 8.5 Corners |
68% |
Expected total corners 8.15 (Treaty home 4.80+conceded 4.60, Wexford away 3.40+conceded 3.50) is slightly below the 8.5 line, but over-first approach applies. Treaty has 3/4 home matches Over 8.5 (75%), and H2H corners show 3/4 matches Over 8.5 (75%). Combined with the quality gap (Wexford 3rd vs Treaty 10th) and over-first bias, corners Over 8.5 offers the best value at 68% confidence. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Finn Harps |
- |
Bray Wanderers |
Under 1.0 Goals 1st Half |
80% |
Expected 1st half goals is only 0.70 (home HT avg 0.20, away conceded HT 0.40; away HT avg 0.30, home conceded HT 0.50), well below the 1.0 line. Finn Harps have gone Under 1.0 HT in 9 of 10 home matches (90%), and Bray Wanderers have gone Under 1.0 HT in all 10 recent matches (100%), including 4/4 away. The one H2H meeting with HT data had exactly 1 goal (Under 1.0). Low-scoring first-half patterns and no structural reason for goals confirm the Under. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Al Ahli Amman |
- |
Al-Baqa'a |
Over 2.5 Goals |
72% |
Expected goals 3.05 (home 1.20 avg at home, away 2.20 avg conceded away, away 1.50 avg scored away, home 1.20 avg conceded at home) exceeds the 2.5 line. Al-Baqa'a has gone Over 2.5 in 8 of their last 10 matches (80%) and concedes 2.20 goals per away game, a structural defensive fragility. Although H2H shows 3 Under in 4 meetings, the away team's severe market mispricing (GL_5 2.70, accelerating) indicates the bookmaker consistently underestimates goals in Al-Baqa'a matches, supporting the Over side. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Al-Jazeera |
- |
Shabab Al Ordon |
Over 9.5 Corners |
85% |
Expected total corners (10.60) exceeds line 9.5 by 1.10, driven by home averaging 4.70 and conceding 5.90, away averaging 4.00 and conceding 6.60. Al-Jazeera went over 9.5 corners in 8/10 (80%) recent matches, Shabab Al Ordon in 7/10 (70%), and H2H corners are 3/4 over (75%). Structural edge: Shabab concedes a high average of 6.60 corners away, indicating sustained attacking pressure against them. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa |
- |
Hapoel Nof HaGalil |
Over 1.0 1st Half Goals |
79% |
Expected 1st half total of 1.35 (home 0.60 + away 1.10 conceded/2 + away 0.70 + home 0.30 conceded/2) is 0.35 above the 1.0 line. Away team has 80% of last 5 away matches going over 1.0 HT (4/5), while conceding an average of 1.10 HT goals away. This is supported by accelerating bookmaker mispricing (away GL_5=2.10, GL_10=1.70), indicating the line is systematically underestimating HT goals involving this team. Home team's HT record at home is moderate (40% over), but the overall signal is strong for the over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
Al-Najma Manama |
- |
Al-Muharraq |
Over 4.5 1st Half Corners |
82% |
Expected first-half corners are 5.35 (Al-Najma HT corners avg 3.10, conceded 2.00; Al-Muharraq HT corners avg 3.80, conceded 1.80), well above the 4.5 line. The home team's first-half corner history shows 75% Over (3/4 matches) and the away team averages 3.80 HT corners away, while the quality gap (Al-Muharraq 2nd vs Al-Najma 10th) boosts attacking pressure. Additionally, severe bookmaker mispricing is indicated by Asian corner variance of 3.00 (home) and 3.60 (away) in the last 5 games, further supporting the Over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
HUSA Agadir |
- |
OC Safi |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
75% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.00 goals (HUSA home avg 0.30 scored, 0.60 conceded; OC Safi away avg 0.60 scored, 0.50 conceded) vs line of 0.75. HUSA's last 5 home matches had 80% 1st half over 0.75 (4/5), and OC Safi's last 5 away matches had 100% 1st half over (5/5), providing strong historical alignment. No significant bookmaker mispricing (GL_5 both below 1.5). |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:00 |
URA |
- |
SC Villa |
Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half |
73% |
SC Villa's away 1st half scoring record is perfect (4/4 over 0.75 goals) including 2-0 at Entebbe and 1-0 at Lugazi, while URA home 1st half matches have averaged 0.8 total goals. The expected 1st half total of 0.75 equals the line, and SC Villa's quality advantage (3rd vs 11th) combined with their early scoring pattern creates a strong Over signal. Market mispricing is moderate for URA (GL_5=1.55, accelerating), adding further edge. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:10 |
Al Fayha |
- |
Al Riyadh |
Al Fayha -0.25 (Asian Handicap) |
72% |
Al Fayha are 11th (35pts) hosting 16th-placed Al Riyadh (23pts) who are in the relegation zone. Home form is excellent: 4 wins in last 5 home matches (1-0, 3-0, 3-1, 2-0) while Al Riyadh have only 2 away wins all season. H2H also favours Al Fayha – unbeaten in 4 meetings (1 win, 3 draws). The handicap of -0.25 is a shallow line and Al Fayha’s 80% cover rate in recent home matches supports them at least avoiding defeat (draw results in half-win). |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:20 |
Al Shabab Seeb |
- |
Al Rustaq |
Over 3.0 Goals |
78% |
Expected total 3.65 (home avg 2.9 + away conceded 1.8)/2 + (away scored 1.0 + home conceded 1.6)/2. Home team's over 3 rate is 6/10 (60%) despite pushes; away team's away defensive fragility (4 of last 5 away conceded 2+) and the massive quality gap (2nd vs 14th) strongly favor over. Market mispricing is severe with home GL_5 2.80 and away GL_5 1.70, both accelerating. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:30 |
Cremonese |
- |
Lazio |
Over 9.0 Corners |
70% |
Expected total corners 9.55 (home avg 4.00 + conceded 5.80, away avg 3.60 + conceded 5.70) exceeds the 9.0 line. Cremonese home corners over 9 in 60% of matches, Lazio away corners over 9 in 80% (4/5), including recent totals of 12, 11, 13. Quality gap (Lazio 10th vs Cremonese 18th) suggests sustained attacking pressure for Lazio, driving corner count. H2H corners are mixed but overall trend supports over. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:30 |
SCR Altach |
- |
Wolfsberger AC |
Under 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.95 goals (Altach HT avg 0.80 at home, Wolfsberger HT avg 0.40 away), below the line of 1.0. Both teams have 70% of their last 10 matches under 1.0 HT goals (7/10 each). Altach concedes only 0.30 HT goals at home and Wolfsberger scores only 0.40 HT away, with Wolfsberger failing to score in the 1st half in 3 of their last 5 away games. Bookmaker mispricing is high (home GL_5: 1.85, away GL_5: 1.70) and accelerating, aligning with the under direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:30 |
Hearts |
- |
Rangers |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 3.25 (Hearts home avg 1.30, Rangers away avg 2.60) exceeds the 2.75 line by 0.50. Rangers have gone Over 2.5 in 8 of last 10 matches (80%), and H2H shows 3 of 4 Over (75%). Market mispricing is severe for Rangers (GL_5=2.90, accelerating), adding significant edge to the Over side. |
|
| 04-05-2026 16:45 |
CR Belouizdad |
- |
USM Khenchela |
Over 2.5,3.0 Goals |
66% |
Expected total 2.75 (home avg 1.90, away conceded 1.60, away scored 1.40, home conceded 0.60). USM Khenchela's away defensive fragility (4/5 away conceded 2+ goals) and 70% Over rate in their recent matches support Over, despite home 50% and split H2H (2-2). Home GL_5=2.15 shows strong bookmaker mispricing, but direction is neutral. Confidence 66%. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
FC Porto B |
- |
Felgueiras 1932 |
Under 1.0 Goals 1st Half |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.90 goals (home HT avg 0.50, away HT avg 0.20, conceded averages 0.70/0.40), well below the 1.0 line. Home matches have 70% under (7/10) and away matches 80% under (8/10) for HT goals. Structurally, Felgueiras failed to score in HT in 4 of their last 5 away matches, and both teams are low 1st-half scorers. Bookmaker mispricing away GL_5 is 1.30 (mild), aligning with the under direction. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
Halmstad |
- |
Brommapojkarna |
Under 10 Asian Corners |
82% |
Expected corners total 8.35 is well below the 10 line. Halmstad and Brommapojkarna each have 70% of their last 10 matches under 10 corners (7/10 each). H2H corners are split 2-2, not contradicting. Structural underperformance and a strong historical record support the under, with high corner variance (AC_5 3.6/3.5) indicating bookmaker mispricing. |
|
| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
Midtjylland |
- |
Viborg |
Under 1.0,1.5 1st Half Goals |
82% |
Expected 1st half goals is only 0.75 (Midtjylland home 1st half avg 0.20, Viborg away conceded 0.50; away scored 0.50, home conceded 0.30) vs line of 1.25. Midtjylland's last 5 home 1st halves all had 0 or 1 goal (100% under), while Viborg's last 4 away 1st halves had 3 of 4 under (75%). H2H matches also trend low (2,6,2,1 goals FT, with two 1st halves 0-0). Structural pattern of slow starts and GL_5 mispricing of 0.80/1.00 is mild but supports under. Confidence capped at 82% per standard ceiling. |
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| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
FK Cukaricki |
- |
Crvena Zvezda |
Over 1.0,1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
81% |
Expected 1st half total (1.65) exceeds the line of 1.25 by 0.40 goals, driven by Crvena Zvezda's away 1st half average of 1.70 goals and 80% over record in recent away 1st halves. Home team Cukaricki's 1st half record is weak (20% over), but the structural quality gap (Zvezda 1st, Cukaricki 8th) and Zvezda's 100% 1st half scoring rate away outweigh this, supported by strong bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5=2.20). |
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| 04-05-2026 17:00 |
Midtjylland |
- |
Viborg |
Under 1.25 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.75 (Midtjylland home avg 0.20, Viborg away conceded 0.50; Viborg away avg 0.50, Midtjylland home conceded 0.30), well below the 1.25 line. Midtjylland's last 10 matches have only 1 with 2+ 1st half goals (10% Over), and Viborg's last 4 away matches have just 1 over (25% Over). The most recent H2H had a 0-0 first half, and both teams show low 1st half scoring patterns structurally. This gives strong under evidence meeting the 82% confidence threshold. |
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| 04-05-2026 17:05 |
Landskrona BoIS |
- |
Osters IF |
Over 2.5 Goals |
90% |
Expected total of 3.50 goals (home avg 1.20 scored & 1.90 conceded, away avg 1.50 scored & 2.40 conceded) easily clears the 2.5 line. Home matches are 75% over (3/4), away matches 100% over (5/5), and H2H is 75% over (3/4). Osters' GL_5 of 2.05 (accelerating from 1.63) signals strong bookmaker mispricing on the over side, adding further edge. Confidence capped at 90% under exceptional ceiling. |
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| 04-05-2026 17:30 |
Vikingur Gota |
- |
07 Vestur |
Under 1.25 1st Half Goals |
78% |
Expected 1st half goals (0.95) well below the 1.25 line. 07 Vestur have failed to score in the 1st half in all 4 recent away matches (scoring drought). Vikingur's last 5 home 1st halves have produced 1 or fewer goals in 4/5 (80% Under). Past H2H matches also trend Under (75%). These structural patterns support a low-scoring first half. |
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| 04-05-2026 17:30 |
B36 Torshavn |
- |
NSI Runavik |
Over 2.75 Goals |
81% |
Expected total 3.00 goals from B36's 2.10 avg scored at home and 0.80 conceded, and NSI's 1.80 away scored and 1.30 conceded. Recent form supports: 2/3 B36 home matches and 3/4 NSI away matches went Over the 2.75 line. H2H has 4 straight Overs (3,4,7,4 goals), and bookmaker mispricing is severe (home GL_5 1.90, away GL_5 1.70, both accelerating), confirming the line is too low. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
Al Ittihad Jeddah |
- |
Al Kholood |
Over 9.5 Asian Corners |
75% |
Expected corners total is 10.15 (home avg 5.50 + away conceded 5.30 averaged), exceeding the 9.5 line. H2H (3/4 over) and recent match history (both teams 60% over last 10) support the over. Al Ittihad's home dominance and Al Kholood's defensive fragility (3 of last 5 away conceded 2+ goals) create sustained pressure likely to generate corners. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
Al Ittifaq Dammam |
- |
Al Najma |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.85 (home avg 1.40, away conceded avg 3.10) exceeds the 3.0 line by 0.85. Home team has 60% of last 10 matches Over 3.0, away team 70% overall, and H2H saw 7 goals in the only meeting. Away team conceded 4+ goals in each of last 4 away matches (defensive fragility), and home team's high GL_5 of 1.95 indicates persistent bookmaker mispricing on Overs in their matches — both factors strongly align with the Over side. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
Vasas SC |
- |
Budafoki MTE |
Under 1.25 1st Half Goals |
76% |
Expected 1st half total is 0.85 (Vasas home HT avg 0.80 + Budafoki away HT conceded 0.40 / 2 plus Budafoki away HT avg 0.40 + Vasas home HT conceded 0.10 / 2) vs the 1.25 line. Vasas have gone Under 1.5 in 7 of 9 last matches (78%) and Budafoki in 9 of 10 (90%). H2H also produced low-scoring matches (all under 3 FT, likely low HT). Two strong structural reasons (both teams' low HT scoring history) support the Under, with no bookmaker mispricing edge (GL_5 0.95 and 0.55). |
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| 04-05-2026 18:00 |
US Yacoub El Mansour |
- |
RSB Berkane |
Over 3.5 Corners (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half corners total 4.45 (home avg HT corners 2.20, away avg HT corners 2.80, adjusted via conceded) exceeds line 3.5. Home team 80% (8/10) of recent matches over 3.5 HT corners, away 60% (6/10). Structural quality gap (RSB Berkane 5th vs US YEM 16th) and away AC_5 mispricing (2.50) support over. Combined confidence 82%. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:30 |
Deportivo Espanol |
- |
Sportivo Barracas |
Over 1.75 Goals |
76% |
Expected total goals 2.00 exceeds the line of 1.75 (home avg 1.00, away avg 1.00). Home side went Over in 3/4 recent home matches (75%) and away side in 3/5 away matches (60%). Both H2H meetings produced Over (5-1 and 1-1). Likelihood for Over 1.5 is 65%, and bookmaker mispricing is mild but aligned (home GL_5 1.25, away 1.10). Over picks preferred by philosophy. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:30 |
JJ Urquiza |
- |
Sacachispas |
Over 1.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals (2.25) from home avg 0.50 + away avg 1.60, combined with defensive averages, exceeds the 1.75 line by 0.5 goals. Both teams show strong Over trends: JJ Urquiza 6/8 (75%) and Sacachispas 7/9 (78%) of recent matches had 2+ goals. Sacachispas away GL_5 of 2.30 (strong accelerating mispricing) further supports Over. H2H (75% Under, 4 years old) is overridden due to quality gap (Sacachispas 2nd, JJ Urquiza 11th) and current attacking form. |
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| 04-05-2026 18:45 |
Roma |
- |
Fiorentina |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 2.95 (Roma home avg 1.80, Fiorentina away conceded 0.90; Fiorentina away scored 1.40, Roma home conceded 1.80) exceeds the 2.5 line by 0.45. Roma's last 5 home matches (60% Over 2.5) and Fiorentina's last 5 away (60% Over) align, with H2H showing 75% Over (3 of 4). Quality gap (6th vs 16th) supports attacking play; home GL_5 of 1.35 indicates mild mispricing in the Over direction. |
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| 04-05-2026 19:00 |
Sevilla |
- |
Real Sociedad |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
82% |
Expected 1st half goals total 1.70 (home avg 0.50 + away avg 1.00) vs line 1.0, a gap of 0.70. Real Sociedad's recent away matches show 60% over 1.0 in 1H, and Sevilla's poor recent form (relegation battle) combined with Real Sociedad's away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away) creates an open start. Market pricing error is high for Real Sociedad (GL_5=2.10), indicating the line is mispriced and favoring the Over. |
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| 04-05-2026 20:00 |
Gimnasia Mendoza |
- |
Defensa y Justicia |
Over 1.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 2.55 goals (home avg 0.90 at home + away conceded 1.60 away averaged with away avg 1.30 + home conceded 1.30) well above line 1.75. Home team went over in 7/10 (70%) and away in 9/10 (90%) of recent matches. Home GL_5 variance of 2.05 shows severe bookmaker mispricing accelerating. Strong structural over signal with no H2H contradiction. |
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| 04-05-2026 20:00 |
KACM Marrakesh |
- |
Olympique Dcheira |
Over 8.0 Corners |
82% |
Expected total corners 8.40 (calculated from home avg 3.50, conceded 4.70; away avg 3.60, conceded 5.00) exceeds the line of 8.0. Olympique Dcheira's away matches show 80% Over 8 corners (4 of 5), H2H corners are 75% Over (3 of 4), and their corners variance of 2.20 (ac_5) indicates strong bookmaker mispricing favoring Over. |
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| 04-05-2026 21:00 |
Union Magdalena |
- |
Barranquilla FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Union Magdalena average 1.90 goals scored/home and concede 1.10, Barranquilla average 1.30 scored/away and concede 1.30, giving expected total 2.80 above the 2.5 line. H2H has 75% Over (3/4), and home team's 2nd-place standing vs 7th adds structural Over edge. Mild market mispricing (GL_5 1.20 home, 1.35 away) does not raise confidence further. |
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| 04-05-2026 22:15 |
Velez Sarsfield |
- |
Newell's |
Over 1.0 Goals (1st Half) |
67% |
Expected 1st-half total 1.15 (home avg 1.00 + away conceded 0.50 avg vs away scored 0.50 + home conceded 0.30) exceeds line 1.0. Newell's away 1st-half record: 3/3 over 1.0 (totals 3,2,3). Velez home 1st-half scored in 4/5 matches. Structural quality gap (Velez 3rd vs Newell's 14th) and away defensive fragility support early goals. H2H full-time unders are offset by lack of 1st-half H2H data. |
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| 04-05-2026 22:15 |
Velez Sarsfield |
- |
Newell's |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
78% |
Expected 1st half total is 1.15 goals (home avg 1.00 HT + away conceded avg 0.50 vs away avg 0.50 + home conceded avg 0.30) against the line of 0.75, a gap of +0.40. Velez saw Over 0.75 in 7 of their last 10 matches (70%), and home GL_5 mispricing is 1.60 (accelerating, adding +5%). Structural quality gap (Velez 3rd vs Newell's 14th) supports early pressure. Confidence 78%. |
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| 04-05-2026 22:30 |
Penarol |
- |
Defensor Sporting |
Over 0.75 Goals 1st Half |
68% |
Expected 1st half total: (0.60+0.30)/2 + (0.30+0.70)/2 = 0.95, above the 0.75 line. Penarol's last 5 home 1st halves all went over 0.75 (100%), while Defensor's away 1st half record is weak but overall expected total supports Over. Bookmaker mispricing is low (GL_5 home 0.80, away 0.45), so no major edge from variance, but the gap from the line and strong home 1st half history provide enough confidence. |
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| 04-05-2026 23:00 |
Quilmes |
- |
Chacarita Juniors |
Over 1.75 Goals |
79% |
Expected total calculated as (1.20+1.20)/2 + (0.90+0.80)/2 = 2.05 goals vs line 1.75 (+0.30 gap). Away team's recent matches show 70% (7/10) over the line, and H2H has 75% (3/4) over. Home team's GL_5 mispricing is 1.85 (high, accelerating), adding edge to Over. Full-time Over selected over 1st half (66%) due to stronger away history and variance. |
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| 04-05-2026 23:00 |
Club Comunicaciones |
- |
CA Ituzaingo |
Over 1.75 Goals |
82% |
Expected total of 1.90 (home avg 0.80 + away conceded 1.60, away avg 0.50 + home conceded 0.90) exceeds the 1.75 line. H2H is 4/4 Over (100% unanimous). Away side Ituzaingo (last, GD -14) has conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches — clear defensive fragility. Comunicaciones' home record is 70% Over this line. Away GL_5 = 1.85 (severe mispricing, accelerating from GL_10 of 1.53) adds significant edge for Over. Quality gap of 10 league places (12th vs 22nd) also supports sustained attacking pressure. |
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