Portsmouth vs Derby – Prediction, Odds & Live Stats

	Date	Home	Score	Away	1x2	Drop	Home Asian Handicap	Goal Line	Asian Corners	Dangerous Attacks	Total Shots	Shots on Target	Corners
	16-03-2026 20:00	2 ^[20] Portsmouth	0 - 1 0 - 1	Derby ^[8] 6	S: - 3.10 ? K: ?3.20 -	4%	? 1.925 ? 1.875	- ?	? 1.825, 1.975	?-? 21-13	27-10 10-6	?-? 4-3	11-3 4-3
	20-12-2025 15:00	1 ^[12] Derby	1 - 1 1 - 1	Portsmouth ^[21] 1	S: - 3.20 ? K: ?3.25 -	0%	? 1.975 ? 1.950	- ?	? 1.900, 1.900	?-? 26-10	14-3 8-1	?-? 4-1	6-4 4-0
	12-04-2025 14:00	5 ^[17] Portsmouth	2 - 2 0 - 0	Derby ^[21] 4	S: - 3.40 ? K: ?3.00 -	13%	? 2.050 ? 2.125	- ?	? 1.925, 1.875	?-? 35-23	13-11 4-5	?-? 2-1	6-3 4-2
	13-12-2024 20:00	^[17] Derby	4 - 0 3 - 0	Portsmouth ^[21] 1	S: - 3.40 ? K: ?3.20 -	2%	? 1.950 ? 1.975	- ?	? 2.000, 1.800	?-? 23-21	17-3 12-2	?-? 5-0	5-3 5-2
	16-09-2023 14:00	3 ^[11] Derby	1 - 1 0 - 0	Portsmouth ^[5] 3	S: - 3.40 ? K: ?3.40 -	4%	? 1.900 ? 1.825	- ?	? 2.000, 1.800	?-? 11-20	8-13 2-3	?-? 0-1	4-8 0-5
No games found

- Minutes
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{{away}}	{{a_corners}}	{{a_ycards}}	{{a_rcards}}	{{a_pen}}	{{a_sub}}	{{a_goals}}

Full-Time	xG						Saves	Shots Blocked	Fouls	Ball Safe
Portsmouth	0.84	6	2	0	0	4	2	1	13	131	1	2
Derby	0.74	0	1	0	0	4	2	1	11	116	0	2

Last 15 minutes
Portsmouth	0	0	0	0	1	1
Derby	0	0	0	0	3	0

1st Half
Portsmouth	3	1	0	0	0	1
Derby	0	1	0	0	0	2

2nd half
Portsmouth	3	1	0	0	4	1
Derby	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 5 minutes
Portsmouth	0	0	0	0	1	0
Derby	0	0	0	0	2	0

Last 10 minutes
Portsmouth	0	0	0	0	1	0
Derby	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 15 minutes
Portsmouth	0	0	0	0	1	1
Derby	0	0	0	0	3	0

Last 20 minutes
Portsmouth	0	1	0	0	1	1
Derby	0	0	0	0	3	0

Last 25 minutes
Portsmouth	0	1	0	0	3	1
Derby	0	0	0	0	0	0

Since Last Goal
Portsmouth	0	0	0	0	1	0
Derby	0	0	0	0	3	0

What statistics and features does BetBallers provide for football betting?

BetBallers is a comprehensive tool designed for football bettors to enhance in-play and pre-game betting performance. The platform provides:

Live Match Statistics: Real-time stats including dangerous attacks, corners, shots, and pressure index for all in-play matches
Likelihood Stats: Color-coded system covering all markets from First Half Overs to Corners, making it easy to spot whether odds are backed by statistics
Variance Stats: Shows average differences from starting lines for Asian Handicap, Goal Line, and Asian Corners to identify mispriced teams in seconds
Comeback Factor: Measures how effectively teams recover after falling behind by tracking how often they score the next goal
xG Stats: Expected goals available on both match pages and in-play pages within the likelihood stats column
Pressure Index: Combines dangerous attacks, total shots, and corners to measure which team is dominating the match

The platform features a customizable and user-friendly layout with the best coverage of games to ensure you never miss potential betting opportunities.

How does the BetBallers notification system work?

BetBallers offers a powerful notification system that significantly reduces the chance of missing potential bets:

Custom Notifications: Create pre-set or fully customizable notifications using combinations of real-time stats, likelihood stats, averages, and odds
Automated Scanning: The system automatically scans all in-play games and alerts you when your criteria is met
Visual Alerts: Notifications appear on the top right corner when matches meet your set criteria
Results Tracking: The system tracks all notifications received with results easily filterable by different options

Example notification: Alert for home underdogs losing by 1 goal but with 66%+ Pressure Index, Asian Handicap +0.5, and kick-off odds under 5.00. This specific notification has achieved a 71% win rate (52 wins, 21 losses) in backtesting.

What is the Backtesting System and how does it work?

The Backtesting System is a game-changing feature that validates your in-play betting strategies in minutes instead of waiting months for results:

Massive Data Analysis: Every test analyzes the last 100,000 finished games (approximately 5-6 months of matches) from the database
Live Scenario Simulation: Simulates live betting scenarios based on your custom notification rules for each game
Retrospective Likelihood Stats: Each game's likelihood stats are calculated retrospectively from that particular match for accurate testing
Results in Minutes: Get comprehensive backtest results in minutes or even seconds, depending on your rule complexity
Advanced Filtering: Filter results by Asian Handicap, Goal Line, Asian Corners, specific days, goals scored within 2 minutes, or missing dangerous attacks

The backtesting system excludes E-Soccer, Beach Soccer, and other shortened matches to ensure data quality. This feature is available to all Gold-Ballers subscription users (1, 3, or 6-month plans).

How does the AI Assistant enhance betting decisions?

BetBallers' AI Assistant helps identify the best value bets and provides quick match insights to enhance your betting strategy:

Schedule Page Analysis: AI scans upcoming matches and highlights value betting opportunities with higher probability of success
Specific Betting Tips: Get concrete betting recommendations with explanations instead of sorting through raw data yourself
Live Match Intelligence: Each live game includes an AI assistant tab providing real-time analysis based on your customized dataset preferences
Quick Match Overviews: Get instant summaries of match situations without manually reviewing all statistics

The AI Assistant helps you make faster, more informed betting decisions by processing complex statistical relationships that would be time-consuming to analyze manually.

What is the Comeback Factor and how can I use it for betting?

The Comeback Factor is a unique BetBallers metric that measures how effectively a team can recover after falling behind in a match:

What it measures: Tracks how often a team scores the next goal after the opponent has taken the lead
How it works: Every time a team falls behind, the system records whether they manage to score the next goal or not
Enhanced accuracy: You can exclude 0-0 games from calculations for more accurate statistics (feature added January 2025)
Transparency: Hover over any Comeback Factor stat to see the complete list of games used in the calculation

Use the Comeback Factor to identify teams with strong resilience when trailing, creating valuable in-play betting opportunities when these teams fall behind. The enhanced statistics are available across multiple pages including team profiles and head-to-head comparisons.

How do Likelihood Stats help identify value bets?

Likelihood Stats are one of BetBallers' most powerful features, using an eye-catching color-coding system to show whether current odds are backed by historical statistics:

Comprehensive Market Coverage: Covers all possible markets from First Half Overs to Corners and everything in between
Color-Coded Indicators: Visual system makes it easy to spot at a glance whether odds represent good value or not
Historical Validation: Shows how current match statistics compare to historical performance patterns
In-Play Integration: Now includes xG stats directly in the likelihood stats column for even more insights

Combine Likelihood Stats with live statistics to avoid situations where real-time stats aren't backed up by historical performance. This dual approach helps identify genuinely profitable betting opportunities rather than statistical anomalies.

What are Variance Stats and how do they identify mispriced teams?

Variance Stats (also called Error Stats) show the average difference from starting lines, helping you identify mispriced teams in seconds:

Asian Handicap Variance: Shows which teams consistently outperform or underperform their handicap lines
Goal Line Variance: Identifies teams whose matches regularly go over or under expected totals
Asian Corners Variance: Reveals teams that generate more or fewer corners than bookmakers expect
Quick Identification: Find the most mispriced teams in your league or competition instantly

Variance Stats help you exploit consistent market inefficiencies by showing which teams the bookmakers systematically misprice across the most popular betting markets.

What is the Pressure Index and how is it calculated?

The Pressure Index is a composite statistic that measures which team is dominating a match by combining multiple attacking metrics:

Dangerous Attacks: Genuine scoring opportunities where the attacking team gets into dangerous positions
Total Shots: All shot attempts including both on-target and off-target efforts
Corners: Corner kicks awarded, indicating sustained attacking pressure
Percentage Display: Shows as a percentage (e.g., 66% means one team has twice the combined attacking stats)

Use Pressure Index in custom notifications to identify matches where one team is dominating but hasn't scored yet. For example, a notification for home teams with 66%+ Pressure Index while losing 1-0 achieved a 71% win rate in backtesting across 100,000 games.

What subscription plans does BetBallers offer and what features are included?

BetBallers offers a free trial and multiple subscription tiers to suit different betting needs:

Free 2-Day Trial: €4.90 - Test all features with full access for 2 days
1-Month Gold-Baller: €29.99 - Full access to all features including AI Assistant and backtesting system
6-Month Gold-Baller: €149.90 - Extended subscription with significant savings per month

All Gold-Baller subscriptions include:

Live scores and in-play statistics for all major leagues
Custom notification system with unlimited alerts
Backtesting system (100,000 games analysis)
AI Assistant for schedule and live match analysis
Likelihood Stats with color-coding for all markets
Variance Stats for Asian Handicap, Goal Line, and Corners
Comeback Factor and Pressure Index statistics
xG Stats on match and in-play pages

Note: The 2-day trial does not include access to the backtesting system. Backtesting is only available with 1, 3, or 6-month Gold-Baller subscriptions.

What are xG (Expected Goals) stats and how can I use them for betting?

Expected Goals (xG) is an advanced metric that measures the quality of scoring chances by calculating the probability that a shot will result in a goal:

Available on Multiple Pages: View xG stats on both the match page and the in-play page for comprehensive analysis
Likelihood Stats Integration: Enable xG display to see these valuable insights directly in the likelihood stats column during live matches
Quality vs Quantity: xG reveals whether a team is creating genuine scoring opportunities or just accumulating low-quality shots
Value Betting Indicator: When a team has high xG but hasn't scored, it often indicates the score doesn't reflect match dominance

How to use xG for in-play betting:

Compare xG to actual score - if Team A has 2.3 xG but is losing 0-1, they may be unlucky and due for goals
Look for xG gaps between teams - a 1.5+ xG difference suggests one team is creating significantly better chances
Combine with Pressure Index - high xG plus 66%+ Pressure Index confirms genuine dominance
Use in notifications - create alerts for matches where xG doesn't match the scoreline for value betting opportunities

xG stats were added to the in-play page in August 2024, making BetBallers one of the few platforms to provide real-time expected goals data during live matches for immediate betting decisions.

How do I create effective custom notifications using BetBallers?

Creating effective custom notifications involves combining different statistics and using the backtesting system to validate profitability:

Mix Different Stats: Combine real-time stats, likelihood stats, averages, and odds for more accurate filtering
Use Likelihood Validation: Include likelihood stats to ensure real-time performance is backed by historical patterns
Test Thoroughly: Run backtests on your notifications to validate profitability across 100,000 historical matches
Refine and Iterate: If results are unsatisfactory, tweak your rules and run backtests again until you find winning combinations
Filter Results: Use filters to exclude games with incomplete stats or where goals were scored within 2 minutes of notification

Example winning notification:

Home underdog, losing by 1 goal, with 66%+ Pressure Index, current Asian Handicap +0.5 (minimum odds 1.80), and kick-off 1X2 odds under 5.00. This achieved 71% win rate (52 wins from 73 matches).

Fine-tuning takes time, but the backtesting system dramatically speeds up the process by providing instant validation instead of waiting months for real-world results.

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^[1] Portsmouth 2

2 Derby ^[2]

1X2 Odds

Dangerous Attacks

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Possession

Attacks

Statistics based on last games

Portsmouth

Derby

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[1] Portsmouth 2 2 Derby [2]

1X2 Odds

Dangerous Attacks

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Possession

Attacks

Statistics based on last 5 10 15 games

Portsmouth Reply_copy_4_2_ Created with Sketch.

Derby Reply_copy_4_2_ Created with Sketch.

Match notes Reply_copy_4_2_ Created with Sketch.

Ask our AI Assistant

Datasets to include

Why Choose BetBallers for Football Betting Statistics?

Live Football Scores & In-Play Stats

Comeback & Winning Factor Analysis Unique

Football Betting Statistics & Odds

Momentum Betting Tracker aka Pressure Index

Match Schedule, Results & Standings

Customizable Betting Alerts

AI Betting Assistant & Agent AI Powered

Betting Strategy Backtesting Pro

Popular Football Betting Categories

Frequently Asked Questions

^[1] Portsmouth 2

2 Derby ^[2]

Statistics based on last games

Portsmouth

Derby

Match notes