| 30-10 19:45 |
Flint Town Utd
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+1.22 -0.03 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 10.54 Home: 10.54 / ((5.83 + 3.79) / 2) = 2.19 Away: 10.54 / ((11.60 + 10.00) / 2) = 0.98 Diff: 2.19 - 0.98 = +1.22 Error: +1.22 + AH line -1.25 = -0.03 |
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3.50 +0.25 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.40 + 1.00 + 0.80 + 2.80) / 2 = 3.50 Error: 3.50 - Goal line 3.25 = +0.25| Opponent | Flint Town Utd | Holywell Town |
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| Ammanford AFC | W 3-0 H 26-09-26 | L 1-2 A 03-10-26 | | Cardiff MU | D 1-1 H 11-09-26 | L 1-6 A 01-08-26 | | Rhyl | W 3-2 H 27-06-26 | L 1-3 A 05-12-25 | | Haverfordwest County | L 0-1 H 03-04-26 | L 0-1 A 18-09-26 | | Bangor 1876 FC | W 5-1 H 07-03-26 | L 1-2 A 22-11-25 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 2.40 - 1.00 | 0.80 - 2.80 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Flint Town Utd | Holywell Town |
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| Ammanford AFC | W 3-0 H 26-09-26 | L 1-2 A 03-10-26 | | Cardiff MU | D 1-1 H 11-09-26 | L 1-6 A 01-08-26 | | Rhyl | W 3-2 H 27-06-26 | L 1-3 A 05-12-25 | | Haverfordwest County | L 0-1 H 03-04-26 | L 0-1 A 18-09-26 | | Bangor 1876 FC | W 5-1 H 07-03-26 | L 1-2 A 22-11-25 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 2.40 - 1.00 | 0.80 - 2.80 |
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311 005 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.40 | 1.00 0.80 | 2.80 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
5.83 | 11.60 10.00 | 3.79 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
14.00 | 11.60 8.00 | 10.60 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
6.80 | 5.80 4.80 | 5.60 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
62.80 | 43.80 36.60 | 41.20 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 30-10 19:45 |
Colwyn Bay
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3.40 +0.40 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.40 + 1.00 + 2.00 + 1.40) / 2 = 3.40 Error: 3.40 - Goal line 3.00 = +0.40| Opponent | Colwyn Bay | Cambrian United |
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| Cardiff MU | D 2-2 H 23-10-26 | D 2-2 A 04-09-26 | | Haverfordwest County | W 1-0 H 26-09-26 | W 3-0 A 21-08-26 | | Barry Town | W 5-2 H 18-09-26 | L 1-2 A 31-07-26 | | Connah's Quay | W 2-1 H 12-09-26 | L 0-3 A 28-08-26 | | Trefelin BGC | W 2-0 H 31-07-26 | W 4-0 A 15-09-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 2.40 - 1.00 | 2.00 - 1.40 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Colwyn Bay | Cambrian United |
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| Cardiff MU | D 2-2 H 23-10-26 | D 2-2 A 04-09-26 | | Haverfordwest County | W 1-0 H 26-09-26 | W 3-0 A 21-08-26 | | Barry Town | W 5-2 H 18-09-26 | L 1-2 A 31-07-26 | | Connah's Quay | W 2-1 H 12-09-26 | L 0-3 A 28-08-26 | | Trefelin BGC | W 2-0 H 31-07-26 | W 4-0 A 15-09-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 2.40 - 1.00 | 2.00 - 1.40 |
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410 212 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.40 | 1.00 2.00 | 1.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
5.58 | 6.00 5.50 | 8.29 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
13.40 | 6.00 11.00 | 11.60 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
6.00 | 2.40 5.60 | 4.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
47.60 | 37.80 45.40 | 51.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 30-10 19:45 |
Ammanford AFC
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3.20 +0.45 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (0.60 + 3.80 + 0.60 + 1.40) / 2 = 3.20 Error: 3.20 - Goal line 2.75 = +0.45| Opponent | Ammanford AFC | Haverfordwest County |
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| Penybont | L 1-5 H 18-09-26 | L 0-2 A 02-05-26 | | Caernarfon Town | L 0-5 H 11-09-26 | D 2-2 A 08-11-25 | | Cardiff MU | L 0-5 H 31-08-26 | L 0-1 A 29-09-26 | | Connah's Quay | L 0-2 H 22-08-26 | D 1-1 A 04-09-26 | | Colwyn Bay | D 2-2 H 07-08-26 | L 0-1 A 26-09-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 0.60 - 3.80 | 0.60 - 1.40 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Ammanford AFC | Haverfordwest County |
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| Penybont | L 1-5 H 18-09-26 | L 0-2 A 02-05-26 | | Caernarfon Town | L 0-5 H 11-09-26 | D 2-2 A 08-11-25 | | Cardiff MU | L 0-5 H 31-08-26 | L 0-1 A 29-09-26 | | Connah's Quay | L 0-2 H 22-08-26 | D 1-1 A 04-09-26 | | Colwyn Bay | D 2-2 H 07-08-26 | L 0-1 A 26-09-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 0.60 - 3.80 | 0.60 - 1.40 |
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014 023 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
0.60 | 3.80 0.60 | 1.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
6.67 | 4.79 13.00 | 7.43 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
4.00 | 18.20 7.80 | 10.40 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
1.00 | 9.60 2.20 | 4.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
26.20 | 65.60 47.60 | 50.20 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 30-10 19:45 |
Barry Town
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4.00 +0.75 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.80 + 2.20 + 1.60 + 2.40) / 2 = 4.00 Error: 4.00 - Goal line 3.25 = +0.75| Opponent | Barry Town | Trefelin BGC |
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| Haverfordwest County | L 1-3 H 24-10-26 | L 1-2 A 31-08-26 | | Connah's Quay | L 1-4 H 26-09-26 | L 0-6 A 14-08-26 | | Ammanford AFC | D 2-2 H 15-09-26 | W 4-0 A 23-01-26 | | Airbus UK | W 4-2 H 28-08-26 | L 0-3 A 03-10-26 | | Cardiff MU | W 1-0 H 15-08-26 | W 3-1 A 09-10-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 1.80 - 2.20 | 1.60 - 2.40 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Barry Town | Trefelin BGC |
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| Haverfordwest County | L 1-3 H 24-10-26 | L 1-2 A 31-08-26 | | Connah's Quay | L 1-4 H 26-09-26 | L 0-6 A 14-08-26 | | Ammanford AFC | D 2-2 H 15-09-26 | W 4-0 A 23-01-26 | | Airbus UK | W 4-2 H 28-08-26 | L 0-3 A 03-10-26 | | Cardiff MU | W 1-0 H 15-08-26 | W 3-1 A 09-10-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 1.80 - 2.20 | 1.60 - 2.40 |
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212 203 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.80 | 2.20 1.60 | 2.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
4.22 | 3.00 5.88 | 7.17 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
7.60 | 6.60 9.40 | 17.20 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.00 | 3.00 4.60 | 7.80 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
51.40 | 38.40 42.00 | 54.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 30-10 19:45 |
Briton Ferry
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3.00 +0.25 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (0.80 + 1.80 + 1.20 + 2.20) / 2 = 3.00 Error: 3.00 - Goal line 2.75 = +0.25| Opponent | Briton Ferry | Llandudno |
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| Connah's Quay | L 1-2 H 09-10-26 | L 0-2 A 24-10-26 | | Colwyn Bay | W 1-0 H 03-10-26 | L 0-2 A 31-08-26 | | Trefelin BGC | D 1-1 H 18-09-26 | W 4-0 A 07-08-26 | | Airbus UK | L 0-2 H 04-09-26 | L 1-3 A 18-04-26 | | Barry Town | L 1-4 H 31-08-26 | L 1-4 A 11-09-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 0.80 - 1.80 | 1.20 - 2.20 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Briton Ferry | Llandudno |
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| Connah's Quay | L 1-2 H 09-10-26 | L 0-2 A 24-10-26 | | Colwyn Bay | W 1-0 H 03-10-26 | L 0-2 A 31-08-26 | | Trefelin BGC | D 1-1 H 18-09-26 | W 4-0 A 07-08-26 | | Airbus UK | L 0-2 H 04-09-26 | L 1-3 A 18-04-26 | | Barry Town | L 1-4 H 31-08-26 | L 1-4 A 11-09-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 0.80 - 1.80 | 1.20 - 2.20 |
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113 104 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
0.80 | 1.80 1.20 | 2.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
10.25 | 5.22 7.50 | 4.45 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
8.20 | 9.40 9.00 | 9.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.00 | 4.00 3.60 | 5.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
68.00 | 55.40 52.20 | 50.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 30-10 19:45 |
Airbus UK
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4.22 +0.97 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.80 + 1.40 + 2.75 + 1.50) / 2 = 4.22 Error: 4.22 - Goal line 3.25 = +0.97| Opponent | Airbus UK | Caernarfon Town |
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| T.N.S. | L 1-2 H 16-10-26 | L 1-2 A 20-02-26 | | Trefelin BGC | W 3-0 H 03-10-26 | W 2-0 A 21-08-26 | | Flint Town Utd | W 4-1 H 18-09-26 | W 3-1 A 17-10-26 | | T.N.S. | L 0-2 H 11-09-26 | L 1-2 A 20-02-26 | | Holywell Town | W 6-2 H 31-08-26 | W 5-3 A 28-08-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 2.80 - 1.40 | 2.75 - 1.50 |
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5 4 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Airbus UK | Caernarfon Town |
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| T.N.S. | L 1-2 H 16-10-26 | L 1-2 A 20-02-26 | | Trefelin BGC | W 3-0 H 03-10-26 | W 2-0 A 21-08-26 | | Flint Town Utd | W 4-1 H 18-09-26 | W 3-1 A 17-10-26 | | T.N.S. | L 0-2 H 11-09-26 | L 1-2 A 20-02-26 | | Holywell Town | W 6-2 H 31-08-26 | W 5-3 A 28-08-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 2.80 - 1.40 | 2.75 - 1.50 |
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302 301 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.80 | 1.40 2.75 | 1.50 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
3.07 | 7.29 1.45 | 2.50 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
8.60 | 10.20 4.00 | 3.75 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.40 | 4.80 2.00 | 1.25 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
32.80 | 50.20 24.75 | 21.50 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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