| 26-10 19:00 |
Derby U21
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+1.16 +1.16 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 11.56 Home: 11.56 / ((5.56 + 5.00) / 2) = 2.19 Away: 11.56 / ((13.17 + 9.20) / 2) = 1.03 Diff: 2.19 - 1.03 = +1.16 Error: +1.16 + AH line 0.00 = +1.16 |
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3.20 -0.30 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.80 + 1.20 + 1.00 + 2.40) / 2 = 3.20 Error: 3.20 - Goal line 3.50 = -0.30| Opponent | Derby U21 | Norwich U21 |
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| Tottenham U21 | L 1-3 H 11-09-26 | L 1-4 A 20-02-26 | | Sunderland U21 | W 2-1 H 06-04-26 | L 1-3 A 18-09-26 | | Man City U21 | W 1-0 H 03-04-26 | L 0-3 A 13-04-26 | | Middlesbrough U21 | W 1-0 H 20-03-26 | W 1-0 A 23-08-26 | | West Ham U21 | W 4-2 H 06-03-26 | D 2-2 A 23-01-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 1.80 - 1.20 | 1.00 - 2.40 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Derby U21 | Norwich U21 |
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| Tottenham U21 | L 1-3 H 11-09-26 | L 1-4 A 20-02-26 | | Sunderland U21 | W 2-1 H 06-04-26 | L 1-3 A 18-09-26 | | Man City U21 | W 1-0 H 03-04-26 | L 0-3 A 13-04-26 | | Middlesbrough U21 | W 1-0 H 20-03-26 | W 1-0 A 23-08-26 | | West Ham U21 | W 4-2 H 06-03-26 | D 2-2 A 23-01-26 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 1.80 - 1.20 | 1.00 - 2.40 |
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401 113 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.80 | 1.20 1.00 | 2.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
5.56 | 13.17 9.20 | 5.00 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
10.00 | 15.80 9.20 | 12.00 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
5.00 | 5.80 4.20 | 6.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
29.40 | 71.20 34.40 | 43.60 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 26-10 19:00 |
Bournemouth U21
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3.90 +0.15 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (3.20 + 1.20 + 1.80 + 1.60) / 2 = 3.90 Error: 3.90 - Goal line 3.75 = +0.15| Opponent | Bournemouth U21 | Brentford U21 |
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| Stoke U21 | W 2-1 H 21-09-26 | W 3-2 A 21-08-26 | | West Brom U21 | L 4-5 H 27-03-26 | L 0-1 A 28-11-25 | | Barnsley U21 | W 1-0 H 16-03-26 | W 2-1 A 23-01-26 | | Millwall U21 | W 4-0 H 23-02-26 | W 3-2 A 06-03-26 | | Bristol City U21 | W 5-0 H 06-02-26 | L 1-2 A 28-10-25 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 3.20 - 1.20 | 1.80 - 1.60 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Bournemouth U21 | Brentford U21 |
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| Stoke U21 | W 2-1 H 21-09-26 | W 3-2 A 21-08-26 | | West Brom U21 | L 4-5 H 27-03-26 | L 0-1 A 28-11-25 | | Barnsley U21 | W 1-0 H 16-03-26 | W 2-1 A 23-01-26 | | Millwall U21 | W 4-0 H 23-02-26 | W 3-2 A 06-03-26 | | Bristol City U21 | W 5-0 H 06-02-26 | L 1-2 A 28-10-25 | | Avg. Goals (F | A) | 3.20 - 1.20 | 1.80 - 1.60 |
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401 302 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
3.20 | 1.20 1.80 | 1.60 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
5.63 | 7.17 8.00 | 5.25 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
18.00 | 8.60 14.40 | 8.40 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
8.60 | 4.40 4.00 | 4.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
54.00 | 46.20 53.40 | 42.40 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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