| 08-09 16:45 |
NEC
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2.90 -0.35 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.20 + 1.60 + 1.00 + 2.00) / 2 = 2.90 Error: 2.90 - Goal line 3.25 = -0.35 |
5 3 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
122 012 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.20 | 1.60 1.00 | 2.00 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
18.67 | 5.88 14.33 | 7.83 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
22.40 | 9.40 14.33 | 15.67 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
6.00 | 3.80 4.33 | 6.67 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
84.00 | 30.20 44.33 | 57.67 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 09-09 16:45 |
FC Twente
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+0.00 -2.00 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 13.83 Home: 13.83 / ((10.20 + 8.09) / 2) = 1.51 Away: 13.83 / ((11.00 + 7.33) / 2) = 1.51 Diff: 1.51 - 1.51 = +0.00 Error: +0.00 + AH line -2.00 = -2.00 |
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3.20 -0.55 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.00 + 1.00 + 1.20 + 2.20) / 2 = 3.20 Error: 3.20 - Goal line 3.75 = -0.55 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
311 203 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.00 | 1.00 1.20 | 2.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
10.20 | 11.00 7.33 | 8.09 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
20.40 | 11.00 8.80 | 17.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
9.00 | 4.20 4.00 | 7.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
62.00 | 39.80 45.40 | 60.40 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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