| 03-09 20:30 |
Vinotinto Ecuador
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2.00 +0.00 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged:
(1.40 + 0.60 + 0.75 + 1.25) / 2 = 2.00
Error: 2.00 - Goal line 2.00 = +0.00 |
5 4 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
311 121 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.40 | 0.60 0.75 | 1.25 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
8.57 | 12.33 11.00 | 6.00 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
12.00 | 7.40 8.25 | 7.50 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.00 | 3.00 5.00 | 2.50 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
60.80 | 43.60 36.00 | 45.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 04-09 0:00 |
CD Vargas Torres
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+0.63 +0.38 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios:
League avg. total shots: 10.02
Home: 10.02 / ((10.00 + 9.50) / 2) = 1.03
Away: 10.02 / ((37.00 + 13.75) / 2) = 0.39
Diff: 1.03 - 0.39 = +0.63
Error: +0.63 + AH line -0.25 = +0.38 |
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1.60 -0.40 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged:
(1.00 + 0.20 + 0.80 + 1.20) / 2 = 1.60
Error: 1.60 - Goal line 2.00 = -0.40 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
311 113 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.00 | 0.20 0.80 | 1.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
10.00 | 37.00 13.75 | 9.50 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
10.00 | 7.40 11.00 | 11.40 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.00 | 2.20 5.00 | 4.60 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
34.00 | 43.00 34.60 | 49.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 04-09 18:15 |
Independiente Juniors
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2.00 -0.25 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged:
(1.00 + 0.40 + 1.00 + 1.60) / 2 = 2.00
Error: 2.00 - Goal line 2.25 = -0.25 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
230 122 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.00 | 0.40 1.00 | 1.60 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
12.40 | 20.50 8.00 | 8.63 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
12.40 | 8.20 8.00 | 13.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.80 | 2.20 3.20 | 4.40 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
58.40 | 44.00 33.00 | 59.20 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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