| 25-08 11:00 |
Swansea U21
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3.90 +0.40 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.40 + 1.80 + 2.20 + 1.40) / 2 = 3.90 Error: 3.90 - Goal line 3.50 = +0.40 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
212 401 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.40 | 1.80 2.20 | 1.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
5.17 | 4.22 5.09 | 9.14 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
12.40 | 7.60 11.20 | 12.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
7.00 | 4.20 6.20 | 5.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
49.40 | 37.20 48.00 | 59.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 25-08 12:00 |
Millwall U21
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-0.89 -1.14 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 11.95 Home: 11.95 / ((9.75 + 6.50) / 2) = 1.47 Away: 11.95 / ((5.64 + 4.50) / 2) = 2.36 Diff: 1.47 - 2.36 = -0.89 Error: -0.89 + AH line -0.25 = -1.14 |
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4.90 +1.65 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.60 + 2.20 + 4.00 + 2.00) / 2 = 4.90 Error: 4.90 - Goal line 3.25 = +1.65 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
113 410 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.60 | 2.20 4.00 | 2.00 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
9.75 | 5.64 4.50 | 6.50 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
15.60 | 12.40 18.00 | 13.00 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
5.40 | 6.00 10.60 | 5.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
58.20 | 46.00 43.20 | 44.60 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 25-08 12:00 |
Wigan U21
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3.50 +0.00 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.60 + 2.00 + 2.20 + 1.20) / 2 = 3.50 Error: 3.50 - Goal line 3.50 = +0.00 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
122 311 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.60 | 2.00 2.20 | 1.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
6.13 | 5.80 4.45 | 7.17 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
9.80 | 11.60 9.80 | 8.60 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.00 | 3.60 5.80 | 4.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
57.40 | 49.00 34.00 | 37.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 25-08 12:00 |
Coventry U21
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+0.67 -0.33 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 11.95 Home: 11.95 / ((9.00 + 5.08) / 2) = 1.70 Away: 11.95 / ((9.00 + 14.25) / 2) = 1.03 Diff: 1.70 - 1.03 = +0.67 Error: +0.67 + AH line -1.00 = -0.33 |
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2.90 -0.85 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.40 + 1.20 + 0.80 + 2.40) / 2 = 2.90 Error: 2.90 - Goal line 3.75 = -0.85 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
311 014 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.40 | 1.20 0.80 | 2.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
9.00 | 9.00 14.25 | 5.08 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
12.60 | 10.80 11.40 | 12.20 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.60 | 4.80 3.80 | 5.80 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
42.80 | 41.40 43.20 | 41.20 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 25-08 13:00 |
QPR U21
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+0.55 +0.30 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 11.95 Home: 11.95 / ((5.67 + 6.58) / 2) = 1.95 Away: 11.95 / ((5.70 + 11.40) / 2) = 1.40 Diff: 1.95 - 1.40 = +0.55 Error: +0.55 + AH line -0.25 = +0.30 |
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3.90 +0.15 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.40 + 2.00 + 1.00 + 2.40) / 2 = 3.90 Error: 3.90 - Goal line 3.75 = +0.15 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
302 113 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.40 | 2.00 1.00 | 2.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
5.67 | 5.70 11.40 | 6.58 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
13.60 | 11.40 11.40 | 15.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
6.20 | 6.00 4.00 | 8.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
46.20 | 49.60 37.60 | 52.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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