| 18-05-2026 21:30 |
Deportivo Maldonado |
- |
Danubio |
Over 2.5 Goals |
75% |
Deportivo Maldonado averages 1.50 goals at home and Danubio concedes 1.40 away, yielding an expected total of 2.55. Danubio's away matches have 80% (4/5) over 2.5 goals, and their defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away) combined with the quality gap (Maldonado 2nd, Danubio 11th) further support over. Home team's goal line mispricing (GL_5=1.25) aligns with the over direction. |
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| 19-05-2026 09:00 |
Rochedale Rovers |
- |
Capalaba FC |
Over 3.5 Goals |
73% |
Expected total goals 3.85 > line 3.5, calculated from home avg goals scored 1.70, conceded 2.30, away avg goals scored 1.40, conceded 2.30. Home team has 7/10 (70%) recent matches Over 3.5, away 5/10 (50%); H2H 6-0 supports Over. Structural quality gap (Rochedale NPL vs Capalaba Premier League 1) and moderate bookmaker mispricing (Capalaba GL_5=1.50, accelerating) add edge. Confidence: 50% base +5% gap +8% home history +5% GL_5 away +5% structural = 73%. |
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| 19-05-2026 09:00 |
Brisbane Olympic FC |
- |
Lions FC |
Over 3.5 Goals |
81% |
Expected total is 4.00 (derived from home avg 2.60 scored, 1.80 conceded; away avg 2.60 scored, 1.00 conceded), exceeding the 3.5 line by 0.5 goals. Both teams show 60% Over in their last 10 matches, and Brisbane Olympic have scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home games. The home side's GL_5 of 1.75 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing favoring Over direction. First-half signal was weak (expected 1.55 vs line 1.5) so full-time Over is the strongest bet. |
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| 19-05-2026 09:15 |
Fulham United FC |
- |
West Torrens Birkalla |
Over 10 Asian Corners |
77% |
Expected corners from averages: Fulham home avg 6.5 for, 4.1 against; West Torrens away avg 5.8 for, 5.1 against → (6.5+5.1)/2 + (5.8+4.1)/2 = 10.75, above the line of 10. Both teams' corner history shows ~55% and 50% over 10, and structural quality gap (West Torrens from higher division) supports attacking pressure. Bookmaker mispricing is severe: away team's corner variance GL_5 is 4.10 (trend accelerating), home also elevated at 1.80, both direction aligns with Over, adding strong edge. |
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| 19-05-2026 11:00 |
Dianella White Eagles |
- |
Bayswater City |
Over 3.0,3.5 Goals |
60% |
Expected total 3.35 goals derived from (1.70+1.20)/2 + (2.00+1.80)/2 = 3.35, exceeding the line of 3.25. Away match history shows 6/10 (60%) matches over the line. Home GL_5 variance of 1.80 indicates strong bookmaker mispricing on overs, and home team has scored 2+ in 3 consecutive home matches, supporting an Over outcome. |
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| 19-05-2026 15:00 |
MB Rouissat |
- |
Paradou AC |
Over 2.0,2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected total of 3.15 goals (home avg 1.10 + away avg conceded 2.20 /2; away avg 1.50 + home conceded 1.50 /2) significantly exceeds the 2.25 line. Paradou AC has conceded 2+ goals in all of their last 5 away matches (defensive fragility). Bookmaker away side variance GL_5 of 1.80 indicates moderate mispricing supporting the Over direction. H2H single match (1-0) is neutral. |
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| 19-05-2026 16:00 |
Hapoel Akko |
- |
Hapoel Hadera |
Over 2.5 Goals |
76% |
Expected total 2.85 (Hapoel Akko home 1.30 + Hapoel Hadera away conceded 2.00 averaged with away scored 1.20 + home conceded 1.20) exceeds the 2.75 line. Hadera’s last 10 matches show 70% Over 2.5, H2H is 67% Over, and they have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away games (defensive fragility). Akko’s GL_5 of 1.75 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing in an accelerating trend, adding edge to the Over. |
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| 19-05-2026 16:00 |
LSK Kvinner Women |
- |
Honefoss Women |
Over 3.0 Goals |
68% |
Expected total 3.75 (LSK home avg 2.25, Honefoss away conceded 2.00; Honefoss away scored 1.00, LSK home conceded 2.25) exceeds line 3.25 by 0.5 goals. Honefoss have conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5 away matches (defensive fragility). Bookmaker mispricing for Honefoss is mild but accelerating (GL_5 1.45 vs GL_10 1.30). Likelihood data shows 80% Over 2.5. No H2H to contradict. |
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| 19-05-2026 17:00 |
Helsingborg |
- |
Varbergs BoIS FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 3.55 (home avg 1.70 + away conceded 1.50 averaged with away avg 1.60 + home conceded 2.30) well above the 2.5 line. Both teams have 80% of their last 5 matches in their respective roles going over 2.5, and the only H2H meeting also went over. Structural signals include both teams needing points and home side scoring 2+ in each of last 3 home games, while bookmaker mispricing is moderate and accelerating (home GL_5 1.65, away GL_5 1.80), adding edge to the over. |
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| 19-05-2026 18:00 |
San Martin de San Juan Reserves |
- |
Independiente Rivadavia Reserves |
Over 3.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total (3.65) exceeds line (3.0) by 0.65 goals, calculated from home avg scored at home (1.00) and conceded (3.30) vs away avg scored away (1.30) and conceded (1.70). Home team has 60% Over 3.0 in last 10 matches (6/10) while away has 40% (4/10), but home's strong home scoring (avg 1.0) and away's defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5) support Over. Market mispricing: home GL_5=1.65, away GL_5=1.55 (moderate, direction aligned) adds +5% each. Confidence capped at 82% standard ceiling despite raw 83% due to away history below 50%. |
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| 19-05-2026 18:00 |
Quilmes Reserves |
- |
Lanus Reserves |
Over 2.0 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 3.00 (Quilmes home avg 1.20 + Lanus away conceded avg 1.50 averaged with Lanus away avg 2.00 + Quilmes home conceded avg 1.30) is 1.0 above the 2.0 line. Quilmes have gone Over 2.0 in 4 of 6 home matches (66.7%) and Lanus in 3 of 5 away (60%). Lanus's GL_5 of 2.05 (accelerating from 1.75) indicates persistent bookmaker underestimation of total goals in their away games, adding strong edge to the Over. |
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| 19-05-2026 18:00 |
San Lorenzo Reserves |
- |
Racing Club Reserves |
Over 0.75 Goals (1st Half) |
68% |
Expected 1st total 1.00 (home 0.60 scored, 0.40 conceded; away 0.70 scored, 0.30 conceded) exceeds 0.75 line. Home has 6/9 (67%) 1st half matches over 0.75, away 7/10 (70%) in that half; structural signal: away conceded 2+ in 4/5 last away matches, suggesting open game. Full-time Over lacks match-history support (home 56%, away 40%), favouring the 1st half. |
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| 19-05-2026 18:45 |
Wayside Celtic |
- |
Kilbarrack Utd |
Over 1.0,1.5 1st Half Goals |
72% |
Expected 1st half total 1.95 (home avg 1.60, away conceded 0.30; away avg 1.20, home conceded 0.80) well above line of 1.25. Wayside Celtic scored 2+ first-half goals in 3 of last 4 home matches (75% Over). Home team's severe bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=2.35, accelerating) adds edge for Over. |
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| 19-05-2026 23:00 |
Bagatelle SSC |
- |
Pride of Gall Hill FC |
Over 2.5 Goals |
65% |
Expected total goals 2.95 (1.30 home avg scored + 1.90 away conceded averaged with 1.00 away scored + 1.70 home conceded) exceeds the 2.75 effective line. Away defensive fragility is confirmed—Pride of Gall Hill conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches—while moderate bookmaker mispricing (home GL_5 1.50, away GL_5 1.45) aligns with the over direction, supporting at least 3 total goals. |
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