| 03-09 16:00 |
Palermo
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+1.27 +0.52 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios:
League avg. total shots: 12.07
Domicile: 12.07 / ((7.00 + 6.86) / 2) = 1.74
Extérieure: 12.07 / ((28.50 + 22.67) / 2) = 0.47
Diff: 1.74 - 0.47 = +1.27
Error: +1.27 + AH line -0.75 = +0.52 |
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2.45 -0.30 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged:
(2.00 + 0.40 + 0.75 + 1.75) / 2 = 2.45
Error: 2.45 - Goal line 2.75 = -0.30 |
5 4 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
500 013 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.00 | 0.40 0.75 | 1.75 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
7.00 | 28.50 22.67 | 6.86 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
14.00 | 11.40 17.00 | 12.00 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.60 | 3.40 6.75 | 5.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
53.40 | 34.60 51.50 | 33.25 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 03-09 19:00 |
Cagliari
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-
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2.10 -0.15 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged:
(1.20 + 1.00 + 0.80 + 1.20) / 2 = 2.10
Error: 2.10 - Goal line 2.25 = -0.15 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
302 032 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.20 | 1.00 0.80 | 1.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
9.33 | 14.80 16.50 | 10.33 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
11.20 | 14.80 13.20 | 12.40 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
2.60 | 4.60 4.00 | 3.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
31.40 | 46.00 37.60 | 50.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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