| 01-11 12:30 |
Mafco
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2.30 +0.30 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (0.60 + 1.20 + 1.00 + 1.80) / 2 = 2.30 Error: 2.30 - Goal line 2.00 = +0.30| Opponent | Mafco | Ekhaya FC |
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| Big Bullets | L 0-3 H 18-10-26 | D 1-1 A 13-06-26 | | Moyale Barracks | L 1-2 H 05-09-26 | L 1-2 A 04-12-25 | | Blue Eagles | L 0-1 H 08-08-26 | L 1-2 A 26-04-26 | | Chitipa United | W 2-0 H 24-05-26 | L 0-1 A 25-07-26 | | Creck SC | D 0-0 H 09-05-26 | L 2-3 A 22-08-26 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 0.60 - 1.20 | 1.00 - 1.80 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Mafco | Ekhaya FC |
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| Big Bullets | L 0-3 H 18-10-26 | D 1-1 A 13-06-26 | | Moyale Barracks | L 1-2 H 05-09-26 | L 1-2 A 04-12-25 | | Blue Eagles | L 0-1 H 08-08-26 | L 1-2 A 26-04-26 | | Chitipa United | W 2-0 H 24-05-26 | L 0-1 A 25-07-26 | | Creck SC | D 0-0 H 09-05-26 | L 2-3 A 22-08-26 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 0.60 - 1.20 | 1.00 - 1.80 |
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113 014 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
0.60 | 1.20 1.00 | 1.80 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
12.00 | 4.67 7.40 | 5.67 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
7.20 | 5.60 7.40 | 10.20 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
1.60 | 2.60 2.20 | 3.60 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
70.80 | 66.20 76.20 | 75.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 01-11 12:30 |
Moyale Barracks
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3.30 +1.30 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.40 + 1.20 + 1.00 + 3.00) / 2 = 3.30 Error: 3.30 - Goal line 2.00 = +1.30| Opponent | Moyale Barracks | Karonga United |
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| Silver Strikers | L 0-1 H 18-10-26 | L 1-4 A 19-07-26 | | Kamuzu Barracks | D 2-2 H 22-08-26 | D 1-1 A 10-05-26 | | Mighty Wanderers | D 1-1 H 08-08-26 | L 1-4 A 27-05-26 | | Masters FC | D 2-2 H 18-07-26 | L 1-4 A 18-10-26 | | Mitundu Baptist FC | W 2-0 H 21-06-26 | L 1-2 A 09-08-26 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 1.40 - 1.20 | 1.00 - 3.00 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Moyale Barracks | Karonga United |
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| Silver Strikers | L 0-1 H 18-10-26 | L 1-4 A 19-07-26 | | Kamuzu Barracks | D 2-2 H 22-08-26 | D 1-1 A 10-05-26 | | Mighty Wanderers | D 1-1 H 08-08-26 | L 1-4 A 27-05-26 | | Masters FC | D 2-2 H 18-07-26 | L 1-4 A 18-10-26 | | Mitundu Baptist FC | W 2-0 H 21-06-26 | L 1-2 A 09-08-26 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 1.40 - 1.20 | 1.00 - 3.00 |
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131 014 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.40 | 1.20 1.00 | 3.00 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
5.71 | 6.83 7.60 | 4.20 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
8.00 | 8.20 7.60 | 12.60 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
3.40 | 3.80 2.60 | 4.60 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
104.40 | 95.00 63.40 | 79.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 01-11 13:00 |
Kamuzu Barracks
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2.80 +0.80 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.60 + 1.80 + 0.20 + 2.00) / 2 = 2.80 Error: 2.80 - Goal line 2.00 = +0.80| Opponent | Kamuzu Barracks | Chitipa United |
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| Civil Service Utd | L 0-1 H 05-09-26 | W 1-0 A 05-11-25 | | Mafco | W 4-1 H 26-07-26 | L 0-2 A 24-05-26 | | Blue Eagles | W 2-1 H 19-07-26 | L 0-3 A 18-10-26 | | Big Bullets | L 1-2 H 21-06-26 | L 0-2 A 09-08-26 | | Ekhaya FC | L 1-4 H 23-05-26 | L 0-3 A 22-11-25 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 1.60 - 1.80 | 0.20 - 2.00 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Kamuzu Barracks | Chitipa United |
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| Civil Service Utd | L 0-1 H 05-09-26 | W 1-0 A 05-11-25 | | Mafco | W 4-1 H 26-07-26 | L 0-2 A 24-05-26 | | Blue Eagles | W 2-1 H 19-07-26 | L 0-3 A 18-10-26 | | Big Bullets | L 1-2 H 21-06-26 | L 0-2 A 09-08-26 | | Ekhaya FC | L 1-4 H 23-05-26 | L 0-3 A 22-11-25 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 1.60 - 1.80 | 0.20 - 2.00 |
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203 104 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.60 | 1.80 0.20 | 2.00 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
7.13 | 6.11 20.00 | 5.30 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
11.40 | 11.00 4.00 | 10.60 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.80 | 4.40 1.40 | 3.40 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
79.00 | 98.60 48.60 | 83.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 01-11 13:00 |
Masters FC
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2.60 +0.60 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.60 + 1.20 + 1.20 + 1.20) / 2 = 2.60 Error: 2.60 - Goal line 2.00 = +0.60| Opponent | Masters FC | Big Bullets |
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| Karonga United | W 4-1 H 18-10-26 | W 1-0 A 16-08-26 | | Blue Eagles | L 1-2 H 22-08-26 | D 1-1 A 23-05-26 | | Civil Service Utd | W 1-0 H 09-08-26 | D 2-2 A 25-04-26 | | Kamuzu Barracks | W 1-0 H 05-07-26 | W 2-1 A 21-06-26 | | Creck SC | L 1-3 H 21-06-26 | L 0-2 A 30-11-25 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 1.60 - 1.20 | 1.20 - 1.20 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Masters FC | Big Bullets |
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| Karonga United | W 4-1 H 18-10-26 | W 1-0 A 16-08-26 | | Blue Eagles | L 1-2 H 22-08-26 | D 1-1 A 23-05-26 | | Civil Service Utd | W 1-0 H 09-08-26 | D 2-2 A 25-04-26 | | Kamuzu Barracks | W 1-0 H 05-07-26 | W 2-1 A 21-06-26 | | Creck SC | L 1-3 H 21-06-26 | L 0-2 A 30-11-25 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 1.60 - 1.20 | 1.20 - 1.20 |
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302 221 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.60 | 1.20 1.20 | 1.20 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
7.25 | 8.50 8.17 | 7.50 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
11.60 | 10.20 9.80 | 9.00 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.80 | 2.60 5.40 | 4.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
61.60 | 65.20 93.00 | 82.20 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 01-11 13:00 |
Blue Eagles
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+1.65 +0.90 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 8.70 Domicile: 8.70 / ((2.38 + 6.20) / 2) = 2.03 Extérieure: 8.70 / ((3.50 + 42.00) / 2) = 0.38 Diff: 2.03 - 0.38 = +1.65 Error: +1.65 + AH line -0.75 = +0.90 |
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2.45 +0.45 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.60 + 0.80 + 0.25 + 1.25) / 2 = 2.45 Error: 2.45 - Goal line 2.00 = +0.45| Opponent | Blue Eagles | Mitundu Baptist FC |
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| Chitipa United | W 3-0 H 18-10-26 | L 0-1 A 15-08-26 | | Red Lions | W 3-2 H 25-07-26 | L 0-1 A 23-05-26 | | Moyale Barracks | W 1-0 H 04-07-26 | L 0-2 A 21-06-26 | | Kamuzu Barracks | W 3-1 H 10-12-25 | D 1-1 A 16-10-26 | | Chitipa United | W 3-1 H 07-12-25 | L 0-1 A 15-08-26 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 2.60 - 0.80 | 0.25 - 1.25 |
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5 4 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Blue Eagles | Mitundu Baptist FC |
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| Chitipa United | W 3-0 H 18-10-26 | L 0-1 A 15-08-26 | | Red Lions | W 3-2 H 25-07-26 | L 0-1 A 23-05-26 | | Moyale Barracks | W 1-0 H 04-07-26 | L 0-2 A 21-06-26 | | Kamuzu Barracks | W 3-1 H 10-12-25 | D 1-1 A 16-10-26 | | Chitipa United | W 3-1 H 07-12-25 | L 0-1 A 15-08-26 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 2.60 - 0.80 | 0.25 - 1.25 |
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500 013 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.60 | 0.80 0.25 | 1.25 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
2.38 | 3.50 42.00 | 6.20 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
6.20 | 2.80 10.50 | 7.75 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
1.80 | 1.00 1.75 | 2.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
62.40 | 43.80 94.25 | 92.00 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 01-11 13:00 |
Mighty Wanderers
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+0.11 -1.39 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 8.70 Domicile: 8.70 / ((10.63 + 5.33) / 2) = 1.09 Extérieure: 8.70 / ((7.50 + 10.25) / 2) = 0.98 Diff: 1.09 - 0.98 = +0.11 Error: +0.11 + AH line -1.50 = -1.39 |
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2.80 +0.55 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.60 + 0.80 + 0.80 + 2.40) / 2 = 2.80 Error: 2.80 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.55| Opponent | Mighty Wanderers | Dedza Dynamos |
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| Creck SC | W 1-0 H 17-10-26 | W 3-1 A 11-01-26 | | Ekhaya FC | L 1-2 H 30-08-26 | D 1-1 A 08-08-26 | | Red Lions | W 2-1 H 22-08-26 | L 0-3 A 10-05-26 | | Masters FC | D 1-1 H 26-07-26 | L 0-4 A 24-05-26 | | Mafco | W 3-0 H 05-07-26 | L 0-3 A 20-06-26 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 1.60 - 0.80 | 0.80 - 2.40 |
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5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games.| Opponent | Mighty Wanderers | Dedza Dynamos |
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| Creck SC | W 1-0 H 17-10-26 | W 3-1 A 11-01-26 | | Ekhaya FC | L 1-2 H 30-08-26 | D 1-1 A 08-08-26 | | Red Lions | W 2-1 H 22-08-26 | L 0-3 A 10-05-26 | | Masters FC | D 1-1 H 26-07-26 | L 0-4 A 24-05-26 | | Mafco | W 3-0 H 05-07-26 | L 0-3 A 20-06-26 | | Moy. de buts (F | A) | 1.60 - 0.80 | 0.80 - 2.40 |
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311 113 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.60 | 0.80 0.80 | 2.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
10.63 | 7.50 10.25 | 5.33 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
17.00 | 6.00 8.20 | 12.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
5.60 | 2.40 2.60 | 5.60 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
118.20 | 51.80 52.00 | 70.80 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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