| 05-07-2026 11:30 |
Meizhou Hakka |
- |
Changchun Yatai |
Over 2.5 Goals |
80% |
Expected total of 3.25 (home avg 1.10 + away conceded 1.90 averaged, away scored 1.60 + home conceded 1.90 averaged) clears the 2.5 line by 0.75 goals. Home team Meizhou Hakka has 7/10 (70%) of recent matches over 2.5, while away team Changchun Yatai has 9/10 (90%), both strongly supporting over. Structural signals include away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5) and both teams needing points in a relegation battle, with bookmaker mispricing moderate (home GL_5 1.20, away GL_5 1.05). |
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| 05-07-2026 11:35 |
Shanghai Shenhua |
- |
Zhejiang |
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
71% |
Shanghai Shenhua average 1.00 first-half goals at home, while Zhejiang concede 1.10 away in first half, yielding an expected total of 1.75, above the 1.5 line. Home team has gone over 1.5 first-half goals in 70% of recent matches (7/10), and Zhejiang's away defensive fragility (conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away) supports early goals. H2H is neutral with only 2 matches, so no override. |
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| 05-07-2026 12:00 |
FC Flora Tallinn II |
- |
FC Levadia Tallinn U21 |
FC Flora Tallinn II -0.75 (Asian Handicap) |
75% |
FC Flora Tallinn II (3rd, 30 pts, 2.0 PPG) vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (8th, 18 pts, 1.06 PPG) — a clear quality gap. Home team has covered the -0.75 handicap in 4 of last 5 AH games (80%) and in all 3 H2H meetings (3-1, 5-0, 2-1 wins), while scoring 2.9 goals per home game. Structural context (top-half home side vs relegation-threatened away side) strongly favors a comfortable home win covering the line. |
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| 05-07-2026 12:00 |
JK Nomme Kalju II |
- |
FC Elva |
Over 3.75 Goals |
65% |
Expected total 3.80 (home avg 1.80 + away conceded 1.90 /2 + away avg 1.70 + home conceded 2.20 /2) exceeds line 3.75. Home team has 60% of last 10 matches over 3.75, away 50%, meeting the over threshold. Away's GL_5 of 1.70 indicates moderate bookmaker mispricing in the over direction. H2H is neutral with only 2 matches. Structural signals are weak, but the over-first philosophy and thin gap still favor over. |
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| 05-07-2026 12:00 |
JK Trans Narva II |
- |
JK Viljandi Tulevik |
Over 4.0 Goals |
72% |
Expected total 4.80 goals (home avg 2.60 scored + 1.70 conceded at home, away avg 3.00 scored + 2.30 conceded away) well above the 4.0/4.5 line. Both teams have 60% Over in recent matches. Away team has conceded 2+ goals in all 3 away matches, signaling defensive fragility. Home team scored 4+ in 5 of last 6 home games, indicating strong attacking momentum. Market pricing error is mild (GL_5 1.25 home, 1.10 away). Likelihood data shows 85% chance of Over 2.5 FT, supporting the Over. |
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| 05-07-2026 13:00 |
Tallinna JK Legion |
- |
JK Tallinna Kalev II |
Over 4.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total (5.00) exceeds the 4.5 line by 0.5 goals, with home team going Over in 8/10 recent matches (80%) and away team showing strong bookmaker mispricing (GL_5=2.20, accelerating). Away defensive fragility is confirmed—conceded 2+ in all 3 recent away matches—and the lone H2H (5-1) also supports Over. Market pricing error and structural signals align for a high-confidence Over. |
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| 05-07-2026 13:30 |
Rosenborg |
- |
Molde |
Over 1.0, 1.5 Goals (1st Half) |
73% |
Expected 1st half total calculated as (Rosenborg home HT scored 0.70 + Molde away HT conceded 0.50)/2 + (Molde away HT scored 1.10 + Rosenborg home HT conceded 1.00)/2 = 1.65, exceeding the 1.25 line by 0.40 goals. Rosenborg's last 5 home matches all produced Over 1.25 HT goals (100%), strongly supporting an Over. Molde's away GL_5 variance of 1.50 indicates moderate market mispricing consistent with higher goals. Friendly match context and quality gap (Molde 5th vs Rosenborg 15th) further support an open early half. |
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| 05-07-2026 15:00 |
Tabasalu FC Charma |
- |
Parnu JK Vaprus II |
Over 4.0,4.5 Goals |
71% |
Expected total FT goals 4.55 (home avg 1.70 + away conceded 2.00 split 1.85; away avg 3.20 + home conceded 2.20 split 2.70) exceeds the 4.0/4.5 line. Away team shows defensive fragility, conceding 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 away matches. Home team has scored 2+ in each of last 3 home matches. Match history: away 6/10 FT matches Over 4.25 (60%), home 5/10 (50%). H2H only 1 match (1-2, under), sample too small to override. Market pricing error low (GL_5 0.75 both teams), well-calibrated line. Confidence 71% (base 50% + gap 5% + away history 5% + likelihood 3% + away defensive fragility 5% + home form 3%). |
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| 05-07-2026 16:00 |
Olimpija Ljubljana |
- |
NK Rudes |
Under 3.75 Goals |
75% |
Expected total is 2.95, well below the 3.75 line. Home team has 8/10 matches Under, away 7/10, with strong historical agreement. Despite away's defensive fragility (conceding 2+ in 4/5 away), the high line and friendly context favour the Under. Bookmaker mispricing is mild (away GL_5 1.3) but not enough to override the structural trend. |
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| 05-07-2026 18:00 |
CA Estudiantes Caseros |
- |
Racing de Cordoba |
Over 1.5 Goals |
75% |
Expected total 2.00 (home 0.90 + away con 1.30)/2 + (away 1.10 + home con 0.70)/2 exceeds 1.5 line by 0.5. Away team has 8/10 FT matches over 1.5 (80%) and conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (defensive fragility). Home also scores consistently at home. Low market pricing error (GL_5 <1.0) but structural Over signals justify the bet. |
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| 05-07-2026 18:00 |
Canuelas FC |
- |
Central Cordoba de Rosario |
Over 1.75 Goals |
71% |
Expected total of 1.90 goals (home at home 1.30, away away 0.90) exceeds the 1.75 line by 0.15. Home has 60% of recent matches Over this line, and away's GL_5 mispricing of 1.85 (strong, accelerating) aligns with an Over direction. The structural quality gap (home 1st vs away 10th) further supports Over. H2H is a 1-1 draw, neutral. Confidence: 50% base +3% gap +5% home history +8% away GL_5 +5% structural = 71%. |
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| 05-07-2026 18:00 |
CA Estudiantes Caseros |
- |
Racing de Cordoba |
Over 1.75 Goals |
73% |
Expected total 2.00 (home avg 0.9 + away concedes 1.3/2 + away avg 1.1 + home concedes 0.7/2) exceeds line 1.75. Away team has 80% of recent matches over this line (8/10) and conceded 2+ in 3/5 away matches (defensive fragility). Likelihood 65% for over 1.5 supports. Bookmaker mispricing low (GL_5<1.0). Confidence 73%. |
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| 05-07-2026 18:00 |
Canuelas FC |
- |
Central Cordoba de Rosario |
Asian Handicap Home -0.25 |
72% |
Canuelas FC (1st, 29 pts) host Central Cordoba (10th, 19 pts) with a clear standings gap. Home team covers AH in 4 of last 5 (80%), while visitors cover only 1 of last 5 (20%). Home averages 1.30 goals scored at home vs 0.60 conceded, supporting a home win. The only H2H ended 1-1, but home form (3-3-1 at home, recent wins over Claypole and Central Ballester) justifies backing -0.25. |
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| 05-07-2026 19:00 |
Ferrocarril Midland |
- |
Gimnasia Jujuy |
Over 2.0 Goals |
67% |
Expected total 2.65 calculated from home scoring 1.20 avg at home, away conceding 1.20 away, away scoring 2.00 away, home conceding 0.90 at home — all well above the 2.0 line. Shot-based match potential of 2.78 also supports Over. Away team's GL_5 of 1.60 (accelerating) indicates bookmaker mispricing in Over direction. Away team has 60% of last 10 matches over 2.0, and the only H2H had 3 goals. Home side strong at home with 80% 1st-half scoring record. Confidence 67% above the 65% threshold. |
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| 05-07-2026 20:00 |
Middleham United FC |
- |
Mahaut Soca Strikers |
1st Half Over 1.75 Goals |
78% |
Expected 1st half total is 2.35 (Middleham HT avg 0.90 scored + 1.30 conceded vs Mahaut away HT avg 1.90 scored + 0.60 conceded, formula yields 2.35), well above the 1.75 line. Mahaut's recent matches hit Over 1.75 HT in 6 of 8 (75%), while Middleham home HT Over in 2 of 3 (67%). Mahaut's GL_5 of 2.25 indicates persistent bookmaker mispricing on goals, extending to HT. Over is the clear value despite FT history being mixed. |
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| 05-07-2026 22:00 |
Pacific FC (CA) |
- |
HFX Wanderers |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals 3.55 (Pacific home avg 1.20 scored + 2.70 conceded, HFX away avg 1.10 scored + 2.10 conceded) well above the 2.5 line. Pacific's last 5 home matches went Over in 75% (3/4), and H2H is 4/4 Over. HFX conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away (defensive fragility), and bookmaker mispricing is moderate (home GL_5 1.50, away GL_5 1.75), supporting an Over. |
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| 05-07-2026 22:00 |
Sagicor South East FC |
- |
Portsmouth Bombers |
Over 3.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total 4.85 (home avg 2.6, away conceded away 3.0; away avg 2.5, home conceded home 1.6) well above 3.5 line. Sagicor home matches over 3.5 in 2/3 (67%), Portsmouth away matches over 3.5 in 2/3 (67%), and H2H saw 2-0 and 2-2. Severe bookmaker mispricing for home (GL_5=2.55 accelerating) and strong for away (1.90). Structural: Portsmouth away defence conceded 2+ in 2 of 3 recent away trips. |
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| 05-07-2026 23:00 |
Westchester SC |
- |
AC Boise |
Over 2.5 Goals |
82% |
Expected total goals calculated at 3.30 (home avg 1.50, away conceded 2.00; away scored 1.50, home conceded 1.60) well above the 2.5 line. Westchester has gone Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 home matches (80%), while AC Boise have conceded 2+ goals in all 3 away games (100% Over 2.5). Structural signal of away defensive fragility strongly supports the Over. |
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