Explaining the Likelihood and Variance (aka Error) stats
Variance Stats (aka Error Stats)
The variance stats show an average difference from the starting handicap line. It gives you an idea of whether a team is over/undervalued and shows which league/teams the market has priced most inaccurately in the past.
The calculation is: [Team’s score difference] -/+ [Team’s starting line]; always using the absolute value.
Here is an example of Asian Handicap error stats based on four games:
- A home team’s starting Asian Handicap line is set at -0.5, they won the game 3-1; the average error equals 1.5 [ 3-1 => 2 – 0.5 => 1.5 ]
- A home team’s starting Asian Handicap line is set at -1, they lost the game 2-4; the average error equals 3 [ 2-4 => -2 – 1 ) => abs(-3) => 3 ]
- An away team’s starting Asian Handicap line is set at+0.75, the game ended 2-2; the average error equals 0.75 [ 2-2 => 0 + 0.75 => 0.75 ]
- A home team’s starting Asian Handicap line is set at +1.25, they won the game 1-0; the average error equals 2.25 [ 1-0 => 1 + 1.25 => 2.25 ]
Based on these four games, the average error equals 1.875 => (1.5 + 3 + 0.75 + 2.25) / 4 (number of games).
Here is an example of Goal-line error stats based on four games:
- The starting line of Goal-line is set at 2.5, the final score 3-1; the average error equals 1.5 [ 3+1 => 2.5 – 4 => abs(-1.5)=> 1.5 ]
- The starting line of Goal-line is set at 2.75, the final score 2-4; the average error equals 3.25 [ 2+4 => 2.75 – 6 ) => abs(-3.25) => 3.25
- The starting line of Goal-line is set at 4 , the final score 2-2; the average error equals 0 [ 2+2 => 4 – 4 => 0 ]
- The starting line of Goal-line is set 2,25, the final score 1-0; the average error equals 1.25 [ 1+0 => 1 – 2.25 => abs(-1.25 ) => 1.25]
Based on these four games, the average error equals 1.5 => (1.5 + 3.25 + 0 + 1.25) / 4 (number of games).
The lower the number is, the more accurate the work the bookmakers have done with pricing games. We recommend taking a look at teams with a greater number as these teams have been harder to price for bookies and have more potential value. The same model applies to the Goal Line and Asian Corners market.
Error AH 5/10/15 – variance stats of Asian Handicap based on the last 5/10/15 games.
Error GL 5/10/15 – variance stats of Goal-Line based on the last 5/10/15 games.
Error AC 5/10/15 – variance stats of Asian Corners based on the last 5/10/15 games.
We have listed teams with the greatest average difference from the opening line (Asian Handicap & Goal Line & Asian Corners) on the Statistics page, as well as on every league page, for instance, England Championships.
Likelihood Stats
The purpose of statistics is to help identify outcomes that have happened on a highly regular or infrequent basis and to determine potential value bets.
The numbers represent the % of times an event has happened thus far based on the previous results. For instance, FH Over 0.5 80%[8]. The small green number indicates the number of games these stats are based on. In the given case, the home side stats are based on the last 10 games, and 80% means that 8 times out of 10, they have either scored or conceded at least one goal in the first half. The away team, on the other hand, has scored or conceded at least one goal in all of the last 10 games. The number underneath (90%) these two is the average of both.
If these stats are very high or low, then this means it has happened on a very regular basis, and the likelihood is that there’s an increased probability it will happen again.
- Green stats are designed to be mainly used for “Over” (Goal-line, Corners) markets.
- Red stats are designed to be mainly used for “Under” (Goal-line, Corners) markets.
- Pink/Yellow stats are a little less reliable to bet on, as these outcomes have been less consistent based on the team’s previous games. Yet, a high yellow stat like 80% on the “Winning Half-Time” or “Scored First-Half” market is still a quite reliable indicator in some cases.
It is never suggested to just blindly choose the highest percentages and create a “once in a lifetime” accumulator based on it. It is essential to conduct additional research using the team statistics, for example, and checking the current form, league, injuries, H2H, and so on. For instance, average stats of FH Over 0.5 goals can be 90%, but it could be that both sides have conceded in most of the games, and scored a few times only. It is advisable to avoid such games.
One thing that is recommended to use is the likelihood scanner on either the In-Play or Schedule page to filter the list of games by likelihood stats. This way, you can spot the potential value bets quickly.
Additionally, these stats can be used for creating custom notifications. Choose the Likelihood option from the Type dropdown, and then set the Event value, as well as any other values. Add more rules that are based on Odds and Stats to create powerful and instant in-play or pre-game alerts.
Read more about creating custom notifications here.
Related posts
-
The Comeback and Winning Factor (2024)
The Comeback Factor What is it? The Comeback Factor measures how effectively a team can recover after falling behind in a match. It tells you how often a team can bounce back by scoring the next goal after the other team has taken the lead. How does it work? Every time a team falls behind, […]
-
Top 5 Least Exciting Football Leagues to Bet On (2023)
While football is undoubtedly the most popular sport in the world, not all football leagues are created equal when it comes to betting. Some leagues offer plenty of opportunities for excitement and high-stakes betting, while others may not be as appealing to those looking to add some thrill to their viewing experience. In this article, […]
-
Top 5 Most Exciting Football Leagues to Bet On (2023)
Football, the world’s most popular sport, offers bettors a wealth of opportunities to engage in exciting and potentially lucrative wagers. With numerous leagues and competitions taking place across the globe, knowing where to place your bets can be overwhelming. In this post, we’ll take a closer look at the top 10 most exciting football leagues […]
Latest updates
-
August 2024
We’re thrilled to announce two awesome updates that will take your match analysis to the next level! 1️⃣ You can now view xG stats not only on the match page but also on the in-play page! Simply enable it, and you’ll find these valuable insights in the likelihood stats column. 2️⃣ We’ve introduced two […]
-
September 2023
We are thrilled to announce a new feature that will improve your experience on our platform. Say hello to the all-new Pressure Index Chart feature, now available in your in-play view! The Pressure Index Chart gives you a visual representation of the game’s dynamics, measuring the intensity and flow of the game in real-time. This […]
-
January 2023
We’ve just released an update to the app that includes a handy new feature for mobile bettors. The pressure index charts are now available on the in-play view and can be activated by toggling on the pressure index button. This feature is great for those looking for momentum on live games on the go. Just […]
