| 05-09 15:30 |
CD Touring
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+0.86 +0.36 Mirror matchup - expected goals from the league's shot volume and each side's shots-per-goal ratios: League avg. total shots: 10.04 Casa: 10.04 / ((5.73 + 4.08) / 2) = 2.05 Visitante: 10.04 / ((7.40 + 9.50) / 2) = 1.19 Diff: 2.05 - 1.19 = +0.86 Error: +0.86 + AH line -0.50 = +0.36 |
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3.40 +1.15 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (2.20 + 1.00 + 1.20 + 2.40) / 2 = 3.40 Error: 3.40 - Goal line 2.25 = +1.15 |
5 5 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
401 104 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
2.20 | 1.00 1.20 | 2.40 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
5.73 | 7.40 9.50 | 4.08 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
12.60 | 7.40 11.40 | 9.80 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
6.60 | 3.60 4.20 | 4.20 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
69.40 | 40.60 58.20 | 63.20 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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| 05-09 16:30 |
CD Derio
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3.12 +0.88 Each side's scored + conceded average is already a full-game total, so the two sides are averaged: (1.80 + 1.20 + 1.25 + 2.00) / 2 = 3.12 Error: 3.12 - Goal line 2.25 = +0.88 |
5 4 Venue-matched games against shared opponents within the last year - the home team counted only at home, the away team only away. All averages below are taken over these games. |
212 202 Wins - draws - losses in the mutual games; home team on the first line, away below. A mirror pattern (3+ wins vs 3+ losses) activates the Expected Goals Diff column. |
1.80 | 1.20 1.25 | 2.00 Goals scored | conceded per game, averaged over the team's mutual games. Green = better net (For - Against) than the opponent. |
4.78 | 5.83 4.40 | 7.50 Shots needed per goal: total shots divided by goals over the mutual games, For | Against. Lower is better - green = better net than the opponent. |
8.60 | 7.00 5.50 | 15.00 Shots taken | allowed per game (on + off target), averaged over the mutual games. |
4.20 | 2.40 2.75 | 6.00 Shots on target taken | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
45.40 | 45.40 30.25 | 54.75 Dangerous attacks made | allowed per game, averaged over the mutual games. |
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